The worsening crisis in Somalia, followed by reports of deployments of Kenyan troops along the Kenya – Somalia border has generated lots of interest in our armed forces.
Due to severe restrictions on information flow, it is not easy for ordinary members of the public to see what exactly our military and police forces do behind the scenes. Here below, the Nairobi Chronicle presents pictures of our national armed forces.
IMPORTANT NOTICE: These are NOT pictures of Operation Linda Mpaka that is ongoing at the Somali border.
Kenya Airforce F-5 fighter jet roaring over the skies. The F5 is Kenya's principal air superiority fighter jet.
Kenya Army soldiers manning a mortar during field operations.
Kenya Army soldiers marching during a field exercise.
Kenya Navy vessels in the high seas.
A paramilitary unit armed with G-3 rifles on the look-out.
Kenya Army soldiers attending a classroom session.
Any of you have similar pictures? Please send to nairobichronicle@live.com
Filed under: News | Tagged: general jeremiah kianga, kenya, kenya airforce, Kenya Army, kenya police, mombasa, nairobi, pictures of kenya military, somalia |
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wambie waache mchezo n.ever wake a sleeping giant
I am not sure the F-5 fighter jet looks like that, Kenya has never had those since they debuted in ’62.
Maybe an F-15?
Those who live in glass houses must not throw stones.
what do u mean??..do u mean that Kenya can get into a state similar to somalia??….If you think so..then u are dreaming…..Kenyans are more intelligent than primitive Somalian chimps…we have a sense of order .
I hope these are not the comments of a Kenyan Somali. It is in everybody’s interest to have a stable Somalia. The suffering visited to the ordinary citizens due to this senseless killings by Al Shabab should be enough to inspire the international community ( Kenya included ) into action. It is foolhardy to imagine that the Somalis can solve their problems on their own. They have failed to do this in over 18 years, how do we expect that they can do so now. We have a duty to act not only to protect our interests but also to save lives.
True Brother Mohammed- but how about taking a pee on the plate you feed on? Kenya- Garissa Lodge and Eastleigh for instance is your brethren’s plate. DON’T PEE ON IT, Kilometre 50 or 90 in Mogadisco is not a place you would want your brethren to dock!
u throw the stones we will collect them and build taller skyscrapers
‘Western Powers and Somalis Will Not Accept a Taliban-style Regime’
Interview with Paula Roque, Horn of Africa Researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS, Pretoria), about the current situation in southern Somalia and Mogadishu. She comments on the motivations of young people to join al-Shabaab, the international approach to Somalia and the presence of international Jihadists in the country.
http://rubeneberlein.wordpress.com/
Ali, Kenyans have not done anything to deserve to be called your enemy.
Respectfully quoting from the Noble Koran, Surah 16:126, “And if you punish, then punish them with the like of that with which you were afflicted.” How have Kenyans afflicted You?!!! In fact, Somali business has thrived.
Its all an Illusion.
You got it all wrong. kenya has taken somali lands & claim it’s theirs. They have killed somalis & who knows how many.If you think i am lying, just do some research about the history of n.eastern kenya So stop saying they don’t deserve to be called our enemies.
reserve your primitive unrefined sentiments to the village kamukunjis in Dhobley. Last time i checked, our borders were demarcated by Britain. Kenya has never invaded Somalia in fact it is the opposite. Instead of thinking how you can use your Kenyan citizenship to help your brothers in Somalia, you think of how you can secede and involve yourself into a war that has enough players already. You give a bad image of Somalis. Stop using Ptolemy’s atlas to base your claims and for once look into the future and the endless positive possibilities it can afford you!
I hear from a source that Kenya was given \acquired cheaply 32 Chinkooks and 8 F-15 fighters from the US..Does anyone have this info??
I work for the Kenya Army and its not true Sir.
walter…..i went 4 recruitment recently and iwas disqualified coz one of my teeth is not in good condition why do u check the teeth while in de usa u can be recruited even if u don av even one teeth?? i was bored……….anyway if u know any officer who can recruit me msg me back plz…i still want to join.
Abc…. that is not true. A Fighter plane is more than just the plane itself, and indeed requires a hell lot more beyond what you see. Our economy would not sustain a squadron of F-15 unless we mobilised for war – which then means essentially that war become the primary recepient of Government expenditure. We have other options, just as efffective and effecient in all manners as the F-15. And not just from the Americans, but also from French and the Russians as well.
The Japs have fantastic fighter options too. Relax guys, you are in good hands here!
What do you mean we are ok and in good hand,junk f5s to
northern sudan migs, egypt f16s is being in good hand.if this
countries were to make a surprice attack is only when we would
start thinking of giving our boys mordern equipment, and stop
living under a false umbrella of strength
Salah Abdallah Gosh?
Are you Uniformed? Or perhaps in Civilian Intelligence /External? What is the basis for your abrasive Posturing, buddy? Haven’t we all seen the results of such blind assertions without fact or even intelligent conjecture, that is put out as if it is derived from some sort of divinely inspired Tract? We are told again yesterday, and for the umpteenth time, by some of those power-starved nincompoops who called out hordes of gullible civilians to revolt using what essentially were extremely violent means, without explaining to them that such escalation would inevitably attract an aggravated response in-kind,( even if from crazy chaps), that they were protesting what they claim was a stolen election – without furnishing an iota of proof beyond narrow glimpses of isolated malpractices which were manifestly committed even by some of these same scoundrels!! Give specifics that bear out your remarks, Mr. AK!!
we need to atleast have a 5th generation fighter jet to match the growing appetite of our neighbours for super fighter jets.How will we survive rabid Uganda armed with the latest version of sukhoi k30 which experts thinks can come close to F22 RAPTOR.We are a bigger economy than uganda and i believe having this Toys will make any would be invader think twice.Our MBT tanks are also nearing absolescence why cant we ask our former colonial masters for some challengers or some panthers
the fact is that being a major doesnt mean that u r smart kila place rem that s a mayor military rank.
hw i would like 2 join the army afta my univrsity education
Dr. Who.
Precisely what is the diagreement in Somalia that justifys the carnage you have wrought in your own country and upon your own people for the last 18 years? Is is tribal / religious / cultural differences, indeed of a life and death importance? Arent you not infact one tribe, one language, one culture, one religion? Stop trying to fool the world that your problems are imported – your enemy is only yourself! And now you whip up emotive justification to export your madness out somalia, and have the temerity to call God into this insane lie! We are ready to meet you, anywhere including mogadishu, and we make no bones about it.
tik tak year 2050 or even 2100 somalia will attack kenya,then we will see how big mouth you are…we are the lions of africa….guess wht talkin about chimps…nigger you look like one…halla…
2050? really? hehehe Okay im scared. but as of no you are amputated lions. let’s worry about vision 2050 when it comes.
jamal, you’re just a lucky product of the war in Somalia where a sympathetic nation granted you asylum and pity, good enough for you to grow your mouth, it is kenya from where you left , and should you feel like getting back to somalia, its kenya where you’ll pass through, i dont think your ass has many choices..
Hello In arecent east africa war games in Tz ,many of Kenyan soldiers were seen taken to one of the goverment hospitals in Arusha ,does this shows that kenyan soldiers are just softy as one of my collegue from Uganda said.
DR WHO just give us permeation by trying to invade our country kenya>and within 2 day all those somali militias will be digging their graves:{from Kenya military top command}
POA – any military exercise is not a walk in the park, and involves at the very least physical exertion to the point of pain. Exercises are meant to test the state of preparedness of any armed unit, and the most important being the Human Component. There are a lot of factors that are vectored into Military Exercises, and any number of them could result in some injuries or even fatalities. All soldiers expect this, and indeed we pay little mind to this eventuality – it is an occupational hazard. So, tell me, if you get splashed with muddy water by a drunk driver, does this in any indicate your incompetence as a pendestrian? Some of these queries posted in these blogs are so simplistic and utterly ignorant as to be laughable were it not for the serious nature of the subject matter. A little research before you post would be quite in order, I reckon!!
Well said Maj. Though I would not have wasted time chidding a guy wet behind the ears. As for Maj. Kagendo’s comment… Gathee when did an officer try to start reason with a Makoboo , as we called em? Let me give you a pink here.. Huyo jamaa hata kigutha aka catapult hakujua kutumia akiwa yankee, unabishana na mtoto wa mama. Hahahahaha. Them waswaa say gota gogo usikie mlio… but not Kenya for your info Kijana Poa- Usimuone simba kanyeshewa ukadhani ni paka… Just in case ungependa kujua ujasiri wa hao Wakenya unaodharau ungeanza na kutwambia Wabongo wangapi wanaendesha Ndege Afghanistan kwa mfano, ilitujue nyie ni Njoruwa ama ashujaa, unavyo gamba? Uliza uambiwe hata Rais wa huko rubani wake Mkenya. Hao hapana chezea kaka braza.
Amazing how this conversation has shifted.However i felt compelled to clarify this “Uncle tom” nonsense talk by saying everyone including this arrogant spearhead is right in terms of how this term has been applied overtime.If you contact americans today they will tell you that they when they pay their taxes to the goverment,they refer to the goverment as uncle tom thus ” the money belongs to uncle tom.” By much, they call the hgoverment uncle tom when its taking from them rather than handing out.
On the other hand the defination given above is the original derivative of the term which does not materialize today in the west.Infact most americans dont know this defination.
To end this chapter and move to something else,i urge you guys to stop name calling and be men of character.
AND TO STAR HERE AND NOW,DOES ANY ONE KNOW WHY OUR GOVERMENT IS SO MUM ON MIGINGO ISSUE WHEN OUR PEOPLE ARE BEING HARASSED EVERY DAY?IS IT NOT THE GOVERMENT DUTY TO PROTECT KENYANS ANY WHERE?WHY IS THIS COUNTRY BEING FORCED TO RELISH HUMILIATION AT THE HANDS OF A WEAK AND ARROGANT NEIGHBOR?
Pain in the ass,
I thought this uncle Tom business was meant for another blog where guys were trading insults and irritating the rest of us and killing an otherwise interesting debate.
President Museveni is pushing for a regional EAC military.
Kenya’s armed forces are the best equipped, but they are usually a peace time force. UPDF has the most combat experience, and Rwanda is definitely a force to recon with. With the new EAC, the Somalia security problem becomes an even more pronounced issue with the other member states. I believe Museveni is on to a very good idea. What say you?
it’a amazing why everyone keeps talking about Uganda and its jungle experience, UPDF cann’t get Kony who’s running riot in northern Uganda to the bewilderment of everyone in the world. You get kony, you get the bragging rights..
i really would like to understand what is jungle expirience updf is said to have with rwanda yet they could not stand the angolan army in the jungles of zaire which was a much favourable terrain for them in comparisson with the angolans and zimbabweans . konny is still recking havoc in the jungles yet updf has jungle expirience .rwanda is a country that doesnt make much military significance in terms of resources , they can only fight those banyamulenge wars but not any serious convectinal army in this region . as in you cannot equal an ally like ethiopia to rwanda. this is a country you can shell every corner outside its borders ,the only advantage rwanda has is that collecting intelligence in ruanda might be abit tricky due to the nature of the past . but with modern ways of collecting intelligence ruanda is one country i would say its difficult to defend againt a serious agressor . back to our point lets think outside the box ,h onestly speaking what are the real reasons for mu7 presence in somalia .ofcourse not everlasting peace , it was a kind of bargaining chip with the west and that explains us why these guys dnt get the job done even with all the expirience they brag about heh ? honestly , mr crain should have known that we have been with these guys much longer . shifta was no difrent from al shabab the behaviour was more less the same .and that is why the jungle expiriences of zaire might be of little help here in som alia ,
Rwanda is a gum-boot army without any sort of armour, not any air-power, no anti-take abilities, no air-defense ability, little strategic depth in logistics, very poor Independent Intel + recon abilities, complete inability to large-troop displacement by road and air, extremely top-heavy with untrained leadership, blighted by excessive political interference, incredibly poor training regimens of Corps rank & file, little ability for long-range warfare, etc for ever if you want. Uganda’s Military is a only best described as a “militarised Civilian Gendermerie” whose existence if to project the monopoly to Violence by the Ruling Elite – it has no fighting ability of any sort!! That Kenya’s Armed Forces are lumped by ignorant arm-chair “änalysts” with Rwanda and Uganda sickens every man and woman in the Uniform of Kenya’s Armed Forces!!. C’mon!!
Mike Alfa Juliet.
Hiyo tosha kabisa…. by the way this days wameanza kuimprove as in having CSD’s na QM’s that know where to shop. This days wameoana mbele, hata wana jungle green fatigue na T’shirts zimeandikwa ARMY in capital letters.
Mix and match is a problem to contend with currently, I remember meeting one of their officers wearing a gorgeboot pair with a tracksuit in a 2010 new year’s eve getdown. He looked a knockout!
To send the RDF Division into Congo in 2008 required not just a complete refit of everthing needed from webbing belts, helmets, guns, bayonnets, tents, water bottles, magazines, ammo pouches, belts, food rations, rain-sleeks, trenching kits, field kitchens, boots, uniforms, fuel, ammo, transportation, air-lift, etc, but also real-time intel and recon from and by American Overflying Satelites and special forces surreptitious implanted into the Threatre of Conflicts weeks before. The entire Division was even lead and commanded by American Officers. Uganda too was feed with real-time Intel and lead by Special Forces and transported by ground and air transportation of the Americans into the Central African Republic in hot pursuit of Joseph KONY – and still fell flat on their collective faces. This is not clandestine information – any credibly senior Military and Intelligence officer active in the Region will tell you these and more!!
To send the RDF Division into Congo in 2008 required not just a complete and total refit for the RDF Division in everything needed – from webbing belts, helmets, guns, bayonets, sleeping and mess tents, water bottles, magazines, ammo pouches, belts, food rations, rain-sleeks, trenching kits, field kitchens, boots, uniforms, fuel, ammo, transportation, field maps, stools, water filtration, Medivac kits, field hospitals, air-lift, explosive and mines, sleeping kits, torches, etc, but also real-time intel and recon from and by American Overflying Satellites and special forces surreptitious implanted into the Theater of Conflicts weeks before. The entire Division was even lead and commanded by American Officers. UPDF of Uganda too had a full Regiment similarly was refitted, feed with real-time Intel and led by pathfinder US Special Forces and transported by ground and air transportation of the Americans into the Central African Republic in hot pursuit of Joseph KONY – and still the UPDF fell flat on their collective faces. Do you wonder that these ragtag lawless bands continue to roam freely in the ITURI and CAR /North Uganda this long?!! I not diverging any clandestine information here – any credibly senior Military and Intelligence officer active in this Region will validate this info and give you even more!!
So, what’s all this chatter I hear about the discipline and strength of RDF infantry? Where does Kenya rank among EAC and the rest of Sub-Sahara in terms of military capabilities?
Hehehehehehe Mwistar, Daddie lets just say Kenya can stand her ground if push came to shove, those who kulad kiapo cha utii past and present cannot tell you that even @ gunpoint. Ever heard of Sirikali? If there is anyone one who can tell you that, hakutoboa AFTC halali
Well, sir, we pass through hell literally to be in the Kenya Army and I think our training Regimen is among the best in the world i.e. for ground combat. Maybe when it comes to air combat we have a littel bit of a handicap as we don’t have the best fighter jets. Lakini you should rest assured that you have committed guys in your army ready to put their lives on the line for any mwananchi. I am proud to be in the Kenya Military.
Been involved in a great number of deployments in Great lakes for years, I know these guys well; and what they aint is fighting armies by any stretch of imagination. A fighting force aint about uniforms, or men in boots (gumboots in this case) or loud propaganda-value militia executions. It is about depth of planning, cohesion of complimentary units, esprit of the Corp by training and leadership, etc. That is why the Libyans in 2007 with the best equipment money can buy were routed by a simple ragtag Chadian force outfitted with nothing more than somali-type “technicals” four-wheelers mounted with 7.62MM Machine guns and civilian-like fellas with AK47s! And chased 150KM inside libya to boot!!
The u.p.d.f and R.D.F is important to remember that they are both an extension of a millitia who first waged guerilla war against very disorganised bandits of similar capabilities.they have never successfully waged a modern war and its beyold human imagination why the purpotet strengths of u.p.d.f has failed miserably to contain Kony 20 years down the line.As for r.d.f ,they may be a village hardened outfi,t but they lack the elements and the character of anything worth of being called an army.
As for kenya army,we all know they are the most professional and best equipped force in this region but untill recently they have not efficiently engaged in patrolling the borders leading to various incidents that could have been avoided.if the theory part that suggests they good can be put on the ground,time will tell when they face conflict.
the kdf is a rag tag army that uses junk weapons of world war 1 and 2.
The egress of al-shaabaab into Kenya is not entirely consequent to inefficiencise of kenya’s Military Cover, but more a consequence of the complex Demographies of the NFD area that exploit cracks in our Policing Networks both inside Kenya and Inside Somalia. IThis is not unexpected nor a fatal failing, and if you have ever deployed in the infamous NFD of Kenya, you would not be so quick to make the conclusion that our Armed Forces are not effective on the Border. No border is effectively sealed, and the best example of this is the heavily militarised and surveilled USA-Mexican Border. Moreover, effective policing does sometimes allow limited and controlled breeches such as these to better understand the extent of the compromises to the Security Cover and their networks/connections. Afterall any illegals eventually have to go to ground, have local contact and support, including financials and mobilisers. It is complex, my buddy Pain-in-the-ass, but well within control. Rest easy, bra!!
Am kenyan cittizen,25 year old and turkana by tribe.I have diploma in hygene and food production.cert in computer.At the moment nafanya kasi kama chef and i would like to one of the kenyan army.plz, Thanks sir.
loriu ekalale
Look out for the Advertisement on Recruitment Notification which is due just about now. Find out early enough the cut-off requirements necessary, and more importantly start rigorous physical and mental preparations for the Interview, the mental being more important as it is this which will separate you from any other fella just seeking a job – a good drill sergent will spot you from the rubble by your focus and mental committlent to be a soldier! Good luck, young fella.
Ole nkarei,
Thank you for the depth of information you have exhibited on this blog plus other blogs ive read You having been deployed in wide range of countries in this region,by your own assessment which armies would you regard highly in various dimensions that constitute worthiness?i mean in eastern and central africa,over.
Just for the record, its Uncle Sam, not Uncle Tom.
you are right walter thank you for the correction.
Hip-shot response might be impossible to take, Pain-in-the-ass, but when considering the Greater EAC and IGAD, and connsidering the phethora of criteria to be depth of Intel & Planning, Heavy Battle Armour, Air-Interdiction Abilities, Rapid Troop deployment both Aerial and Ground, Air-defense abilities, Bombadier abilities both Ground and Aerial, Battle Anti-tank abilities both mobile and static, Ordnance and Equipment, Leader-training & Corps depth, Logistics and re-supply, Capacity to General Mobilisation(size of economy, external links and treaties, etc), Command & Control Structures, able Population size & education, General Preparedness,,, the list is endless.
And all these factors are not static and may alter dramatically in the event of open hostitlities. Iti is virtually impossible to make this call with certainity, buddy, which is always an interesting Subject in our Combat Schools. What is easy to do is to knock out the pretenders, the non-contenders, and clearlythese are Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Somalia, Eriteria. That leaves out Ethiopia, Tanzania, Kenya, and the DRC slumbeing Giant. Now factor in that the composition of one or several alliances within this group would change the situation no ends, and see how difficult your question is? Eeiiish!!
Ole Nkarei,
Are you overlooking Sudan? I mean the Arab North. They are arming themselves like no one else in the region. They might have been weak before but this is changing. What is your take?
Nkarei,
Quite interesting to see D.R.C on your list of worth armies.I thought that the wars that have ravaged them has left them in tatters with most of the soldiers joining rebel ranks and others getting demoralised.Is there anything special going on there that cataputs them to the top of this list?By the way as Oleikoma implies,is’nt Sudan armed to the teeth or those parades and amazing display of weaponly including missiles is a gimmick? Last time i checked about millitary expenditures Sudan spends more than a billion dollar per year on their millitary.what do you think big bro.
Sudan spent roughly equal to Kenya in 2008 which amounted to USD 550 Million / Sudan USD585 Million. On paper consequently, that should require quite some Armed Force to utilise. However, for the very same reasons Libya whose Expenditure amounted to just under USD2.6Billion the same year, were repelled and then chased half-way to tripoli by a rag-tag bandit army of chadians mounted on “techicals”just like you see in Mogadishu. More than the equipment, it is the driver of it, the operator that counts, hence the equipment is only as good as the operator. Sudan is fatally sapped by this north-south intenecine war that has raged over 40years, which has eaten it’s social fabric to the extent that its military is not much different from a “resistance force” quiet incapable of projecting any aggressive action in force anywhere including the sudan itself. The Garang army isnt anything to write home about and any credible government-funded Army should have put a close to the South a long time ago. Moreover the infrastructure that would be so vitally necessary in the south towards the border with Kenya, for the projection and prosecution of any aggressive intention towards kenya, has remained for decades undevelop, ignored and utterly unsuited for this purpose. The DRC is in chaos primarily because of its potential to dormninance over the entire central africa region. It only needs one bloodthirsty military chap with genius to entrap this potential into in a projection of power,and you wil all wake up to a different world.
War games in our defense schools show kenya confortabley destroying whatever BattleArmour the Sudanese have in very short order, and completely shutting down their skies over Southern Sudan in equally short order. Hands down!
Quite true Mr Ole Nkarei, Sudan may not pose a threat to us in the short or medium term, but are we not to pay attention to the kind of weapons that our northern neighbours are buying? I mean things like 4th generation Su-27 fighter jets in Ethiopia and the MiG 29s in the Sudan. I know that other factors must be considered besides these planes alone, but look these are very potent machines nonetheless.Enough to inspire us to at least get the equivalent of the F-16.
We have argued elsewhere about the agility of our F-5 fighter jet, but i thought we are in a much better position than the likes of Ethiopia to afford a more modern fighter.
Risasi, where are you, mate? I am taking fire!
Your Airwarfare queries is really in the deep end of my ken, Buddy! But I have called in “close ground support” Air Unit called “Risasi”. But on the query about the Sudan Military Spending, the critical consideration in this question is duo-fold (1) are you arming with a defensive posture, or ( 2) are you seeking aggressive force with deadly intentions. Depending on which of these are your posturing, your composition of equipment is determined. Consider the heavy content Tanzania’s Air-defense, field artillery and tactical Mortars against their complete lack in Heavy Battlefield Armour, Air-power of any sort, Hard Anti-tank abilities, and Combat Troop Movement capacity, mirrored by the Sudanese situation, and you see how puny their force no matter the expenditure in Hardware becomes. It speaks generally of the state and quality of their Military Leadership, and gives confidence to any professional Force staging war games against both the Tanzanians and Sudanese. Risasi where are you?
On several sites ive come across including janes defence,the SIZE of our armed forces is cited as the greatest deficiecncy especially compared with our potential adversaries-ethiopia and uganda,Our training and proffesionalism is not in doubt and our equipment is regarded as superior against them.On doing some research about the size of our forces,i realized it was hard to get an actual figure given that diffferent sources gave spread out figures without any credibility at all.Now,what is the estimate and another question i’d like to pose from you guys in the millitary is that on studying the composition of various armed forces,i wonder if we have highly specialized units in our force that could be called in to subdue highly defended targets or carry out special raids behind enermy lines.any information?
Pain-in-the-ass – have you ever wondered why in the midst of the incredible chaos sorrounding Kenya during the past fourty years, with hostile belligerent forces on all sides, and everybody seeming to square off with everybody, not one of our neighbours has ever tested the resolve of our Military Forces? The Mantra most recalled during Combat Schools is Preparation-to-depth, and again Preparation-to-depth, and this starts from the in-depth assessment of all threat counters, to designing and training appropriately to meet them. It involves disinformation/proganda, soft and hard covert functions, equiping and training, etc. An Armed Force isnt the shinning equipment trotted out on National Days, nor the ocassional “successful operation” against rag-tag armed bandits before international Media. You would be surprised how much time some poor desk-types spend reading through blogs like these, and planting their own little titbits in themselves. Therefore you query about the composition and effectual capacity of individual Units of our Armed Forces is unlikely to generate any credible response, buddy! Another thing – some of these sources you may be feeding from such as Jane’s this-or-that perform precisely the same function describe above. The International Trade in Arms feeds upon itself, and has little to do with politics or morality. Please use the african sagesse of taking it a pinch-at-a-time!!
a well armed somali, Ethiopia,Eriterian and Tutsi squad can take care of a well armed Kenyan army battalion. It is not only arms that matter but the courage and we alll know Kikuyu and the Gema military will not stand in the way of a simple somali men. This has been proven over and over many times.
The Kenya’s are good at raping and killing innocent villager and passing around AID virus.
Away with your tribal mentality. I suppose you also think the entire Kenya army is made up of Only Kikuyu/Gema. There are other communities that include the Somali as well. Educate yourself first. It would also help if you could sort your Somalia Problems first,- short of that you have no moral authority to speak to civilized persons.
Tell us what you have achieved in all the wars that you have fought and sadly lost all of them. Where is the strength that you boast of? Fight all you want, but please confine this to within your borders. Should you be stupid enough to cross, then we shall see the truth of your post.
I advice primitive stone age characters like you to get an education first so as to make comments with substance.
I really pity people like u as we don’t have a place for people like you in Kenya!!
Nkarei,
So who would you recommend as some what reliable as a source of credible information on millitary matters especially for a person like myself who has a new found appetite for this jagon and related items on this menu?I recognize that even those who contribute on this blog may have other intents’ and on the same token i reckon that the love for one country may lead them to OVER ESTIMATE him armed forces and UNDERESTIMATE the enermy .What do you say big timer?
i meant his armed forces.
The Major brings up a very good point; misinformation. One saying suggests that the greatest trick the devil ever pulled off was to convince people he didn’t exist. The Somali pirates clearly have not mastered that feat yet. Have we seen any hijackings within Kenya’s territorial waters? I read a report that suggests the Navy has been stepping up patrols. Does al Shabaab and the pirate ‘brotherhood’ operate independently?
Also, on an unrelated subject, I was hoping for a personal, (or otherwise) opinion on Congo’s Gen. Laurent Nkunda. I am doing an interview with a former Rwandan soldier/rebel (not sure which noun to use yet). He suggests that Nkunda still wields considerable clout in the area. It has also been suggested within our conversations that quite a number of his former fighters are more than willing to take up arms, for what they see as a miscarriage of justice with his continued incarceration. Is ‘The Chairman’ too popular to punish?
Mwistar, where are you, mate? You concluded your interview with the Nkunda rebel? Most likely to have been an RDF Intelligence office feeding you disinformation, to find out what connections and intentions you had with this Kivu query. If you have not prosecuted to the full this line of thought, beware of the web of deceit that covers the KIVU / ITURI region’s power plays!
Pain-in-the-ass – warfare is really deadly business, not just to the Soldier but to his mother, his children, country. Last thing Military Planners needs is self-delusion or under-estimation of ANY threat counters. The results would be unimaginable to any Soldier. Morever, when I am out “there” I must trust that proper assessment of the situation was done by the Planning Brass that sends me in, so that my reactive assessment on the field is derived from these tangible believables. So that Kenya remaining undisturbed and free from real external Military Threats is not an illusory state neither are assertions made that the deterrent capacity of your Armed Forces have secured this situation delusional underestimation. Take that to the bank, buddy!
As concerns “General Nkunda” I and some buddies were swabbing tuskers with this fella on road-side bars in Kichukiro – Kigali, weeks after he was supposedly arrested and confined by Rwanda for his activities in Ituri and South Kivu!! This guy does not exist beyond the minds of the clever military strategists in Kigali who created him. His army does not exist either, and all the uniforms you see and hear around him are bonafide RDF servicemen masquarading as rebels in Ituri and Kivu. The entire rebel upraising in effect is Rwanda’s annexation of Kivu and Uganda egress into the Ituri. And because this devilish plot and activities fits into the American/British Agenda of wrestle influence and control from the French, the entire world is saturated with sustained misinformation and propaganda that “creates’ a people”s appraising in the Congo!! Ask around in any Military HQ in Eastern Africa and you will be surprised how incredibly clever and convoluted this plot is!.
Well major,
switching to another subject,ive on several occasions seen you dismiss U.P.D.F as a non player but do’nt you think that with the tendencies they have demonstrated and with flowing petrol dollars they might sooner than later feast on a false believe that kenya too is a fair game and i like to predict that the only thing predictable about uganda is their unpredictability.i know the future threats are already addressed but how much of a threat are they for now and in future.I was stunned by american and british analysts who on addressing China as millitary threat reffered to Chinese millitary as so absolete that they are the biggest millitary MUSEUM in the world.Given that we seem to be looking east for our hardware,and as china recently supplied our forces with the so called “absolete” equipment,and if poor countries like uganda and ethiopia can afford more decent fighters is’nt time to upgrade?I know you have argued that the strength is not in the hardware alone but given that our forces have the character it takes,dont you think our economy can handle more than what we get?
Pain-in-the-Ass, the changing environment forms the only consideration to military strategic planning, as indeed the constant is known and measures already in place to counter this. What you indicate about Uganda and her oil, as well as the “obsolete equipment from China” are legitimate threat areas for study. But do remember that the biggest money-spenders are government and the biggest international market is indeed the Arms / Military Hardware Market. Competition is cutthroat, no-holds-barred, and all means legitimate. And who excercises the greatest disinformation and propaganda ability in the market ? again the military-industrial complex! And who is the greatest proponent of it in history? The Americans and their Western allies! Their economies are build upon the Defence Industries, and competition from the East portends deadly social-economic problems for them. It is a declaration to war, and is treated as such. Do not believe all you hear/read – take it with the african nose-tobacco pinch-at-a-time. I reckon I have given you all I can about Kenya without soiling my Commission, bro. Lets talk about the Congo Conflict if you want?
Let’s talk mercenaries.
Although I was still quite young, I remember a soldier-for-hire outfit from South Africa, Executive Outcomes, that was sent to secure the oil fields in Angola during the civil war. How common are these private military types in Africa? What deters a President like M7, or Kabila from renting a few chaps to quell some of these embarrassing skirmished they get into? Are there implications that a civilian like me doesn’t automatically see?
Thank you major.You have been more than adequate with your information and knowledge.I dont wish to push you too far for specifics that would otherwise compromise your oath- for lack of better term.
Talking of congo conflict,you had a good review of their millitary which makes me wonder how the outside influece has played a role in the chaos that persist there today.With all those minerals and natural wealth i think a lasting peace is elusive plus a hanging cloud of malicious neighbors not mentioning the havoc that african ethnicity has inflicted on themselves.What am saying is that i can cite many places in africa from Nigeria to chad to God knows where ,where minerals and resouces have brought havoc than blessings.What say you over?
Well, the Outfit Executive Outcomes died out when Margaret Thatcher’s Son was caught in the CAR in a failed Coup dÉtat. You see, during the sixties to early eighties, the eternal conflict over resources in Africa was basically a clear divide between two opposing sides, couched in Ideology and Class euphemism. Mercenaries were often hired by either side, through proxies like M7( in today’s scene) a nd Kasavubu in Congo. Then Africans became educated, sofisticated and generally their politics developed complications without Ideology, while the collapose of the International Ideological divide removed all moral differentiations between the two sides of yore leading to the development of a dog-race without loyalties or long-lasting friends – “Vital National Interests” ruled!. Western Governments ceased doing their dirty wars in Africa through proxies resulting in mercenaries themselves facing Trained and Equiped American, British, French Russian Soldiers actively engaged in protecting the dictatorships the Mercenaries targeted, whom these mercenaries would have overran in previous days. All pretensions by Economic Powers evaporated, and essentially the Mercenary armies “evolved”. The recent raids of Rwanda in the Kivu and the Uganda egress into the CAR outfitted from the USARMY and led by USARMY special force elements is a perfect example of this use of National Armies of the Western Powers in direct Military Conflict for Resources in Africa! Of course, the international airwaves are roped in to dupe the world to real purpose of these wars and the involvement of these Western Countries in them.
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In continuation therefore, Economic Powers simply identify what they see as their Vital National Interests in any region, based mostly on resources or security, and identify or create a leadership in that region whose interest dove-tail into their own. The conflict in the two KIVUs and ITURI of the Congo is a text-book case in point of the above, although the entire Congo Conflict of the last 50 years would substantially vindicate this view. Congo has every sort of mineral wealth you can imagine, in numbers that boggle the mind. Virtually priceless to Western Economies in their dominance of International trade. Now, factor in a generational genocide lasting 150years that the same Western Economic powers fostered either directly or in proxy through years of careful selection, and the obsfucation of ideological differentiation, and you have the two KIVUs and ITURI. How else is it possible for a single tribal grouping speaking one language and one culture that spans the entire KIVUs, ITURI, all of Rwanda and Burundi, upper western Tanzania and large swathes of Western Uganda, be so senselessly fratricidal that 6Millions of them are dead from thrust and counter-thrust raids over the past 15years alone? The horrors in this region are unforgiveable and unforgetable, an absolute indictment on the morality on Humanity itself!
See you all in 6 weeks – deploying now.
Maj Ole Nkarei, i have every reasons to doubt every piece of information you’ve supplied. Why? Because on another blog http://www.kenyaimagine.com/Economy/The-Case-AGAINST-Military-Draft-in-Kenya.html you vehemently defended the hijacked arms on MV Faina as being Kenyan. However months later, satellite imagery showed ’em sitting on the ground in S. Sudan. I remember telling you that the kenya army doesn’t openly admit to owning even a handgun. Now to serious matters, what good is a wicked armour, cut throat special forces and skilled propaganda officers if we can’t have air superiority? Our tanks will be crushed by MiG’s and Sukhois (which coincidentally are said to have TVC-Thrust Vector Control) While we park our F-5’s like the Iraqis did in desert storm. Do not fool yourself, sir, even the best army needs some Air support. You claim the Japs too have quality hardware? well too bad, coz according to their constitution they can’t sell even a bolt from a warplane without violating their constitution. Risasi, i find u reliable enough. Tell me, if u can’t establish air supremacy over a battle what happens?
I too has followed closely what Nkarei has supplied and claimed to be in several websites and my best assessment tell me that he is a government agent whose mission is to mis-inform and throw people off the track.There is no doubt the man himself is well informed and very articulate almost to a level of being called a genius but his assertions are very questionable especially when it comes to the T 72s.No matter how much they try to sell the idea those tanks belonged to Kenya am not buying that junk.Evenwatoto wa nyayo know that Kenya has never procured russian made weapons as the main hardware for our forces.Nato made weapons have been the centerpiece of our defence equipment and this flimsy defence of t72s as kenyan is conjured piece of misinformation perpetrated by an inept govenrment aided by a secretive army that is ready to ride the government will till the wheels come off. Try again please.
Jasiri buddy – a battle of any substantive proportion demands establishing a balance of violence from very many and various battle facets at moments that are specific and all of which are part of a war-planning jigsaw. Air power by itself is described often as “”air cover” “air support” or in such similar descriptive namings. Even it’s such functions are valid, really, and the specific nature of these just as varied. It is not possible to win any sizeable war on a single-faceted mode.
But I must add that I am not a deskjockey riding a disinformation kite here, as alleged by some fella or other. I am a soldier, well trained, highly motivated and of some usable experience, and break no bones that WAR is my business that I know goddamn well. I know nothing else!!
Cmon people.war is not just mobilizing troops givin em guns putting them in trucks and taking them to where the enemy is.there is a lot of logistics and planning involved. first off the issue of Kenya’s “dwarf” force fronted by Jasiri. there is such a thing as a national defence strategy.it involves mobilization of the standing army, regrouping, arming and activation of the reserve force, (in Kenyas case it involves retired military personnel, the AP service and the excellently trained GSU paramilitary unit not to mention the KWS….yes the KWS FYI they are considered one of the best bush fighters in the world) the number of this formidable reserve force is somewhere in the whereabouts of 50 – 70,000 battle ready personnel. What the country has in its arsenal at this moment is meant to repel and hold back the enemy while the 8 billion dollar war reserve fund is being mobilized.with this kind of money and force Kenya can defend herself from upto 3 fronts for a considerable amount of time.dont forget that a clause exists in the constitution and the armed forces act that every kenyan can be called upon to defend Kenyas sovereignty when push comes to shove. we have enough training facilities to put out 6 or more batches of new recruits every year in case of a drawn out conflict unlikely as it might be. when talking about air superiority it is important not only to look at the number and type of aircraft flown but also the training and support from ground crews and ground based air defence systems.i tell you if those ugandan Migs dare cross that border they will be shot down before they crosss the Yala river and this i say with utmost confidence.
i would like to give my opinion about the mu7 sukhois , the sukhois are good planes with better manouverbility . but the quantity of the planes doesnt make much significance with moonsters like su bukim missiles which have the capability of optical visualization making it impossible to electronically jam it , one single shot from these missiles can hit multiple targets making it very unlikely that these sukhois would give updf the kind of leverage they would desire .its good that the ugandans have shown the desire to buy sirius weapons but its also good to buy in viable quantities like a squadroon .
“It is not possible to win any sizeable war on a single-faceted mode.” Ole Nkarei,i did not in any possible way insinuate that air power alone is sufficient to achieve victory. if i may quote ,myself, i said “what good is a wicked armour, cut throat special forces and skilled propaganda officers if we can’t have air superiority?” I agree completely with you that air superiority alone is not enough to achieve battle victory. However it does play a big role. If the enemy warplanes can strike behind our forces lines, hitting supply bases, arms dumps, fuel dumps and an occasional opportunity target that present itself while their(enemy) armour hits viciously at our front line troops what would we have to sustain our troops? Air support is vital in any modern confrontation.
“D” you say “the 8 billion dollar war reserve fund is being mobilized.” Agreed we may have an intact 8b war reserve kitty. it’s utilisation means buying equipment for our fighting forces. Picture this, war has begun the 8B kitty is now being utilised equipment is being procured rapidly. Tell me how much time will the troops have to familiarise with the new weapons and learn to use them in co-ordination ( using one systems strength to cover another systems weaknesses)? When u talk about Ugandan MiGs do you forget other potent Air Forces around us? Ethiopian air force, Sudanese Air Force? Have heard of a term called SEAD-Suppression of Enemy Air Defences? What if the opposing air forces are skilled in effecting the doctrine? It is not enough to count on air defence to protect our skies fully knowing that such systems can be jammed. With Sudanese air forces investing in drones and electronic countermeasures is it realistic to count on this form of defence? Risasi where are you man, i need you to answer this for me.
I can see a new front here. I have only been getting feeds from “Kenya Air force buys junk fighter jets” pages. Otherwise I would have got the distress calls sooner.
I will also subscribe to this page and contribute to what I know.
I don’t think you understood “D” on the concept behind the USD 8B (not sure on the right amount) pot. It is for facilitating and not for procurements two different topics, in case of an eventuality. Part of the cash is to assist in rapid response. For instance
at montogwe each naval ships has cash in USD stacked in its safe. And mapeni haya si ya kununua silaha bali ni ya kufanya wana maji wetu wawezi kuenda high sea take positions, buy food and refuel while await the next course of actions.
As for “SEAD” per say no country in Africa has the tools to perform such a sortie.
appreciate the sober answer. as for the “wanamaji wetu mtongwe”do you mean the sailors on those gun boats? Our flagship, Shujaa, has no anti-ship capability. the only potent machines we have are the Nyayo class boats(over 25 years old). Amphibious capability=0. KNS Jasiri, a good ship a must say, is beached in Spain. we cannot even attempt a beach landing on somalia territoty. I don’t know what you gus think but am of the opinion we need a total overhaul of our defence equipment.
KNS Shujaa has never been a flag ship of the navy, I don’t know where you heard about that. It, s secondary function is training. It is true, it has no dedicated fire control system (radars, missiles etc)but it has all the support infrastructure need to turn it into a modern corvettes when need be.
This is a window that can be used in the future other then buying a new vessel. Hook it up with the weapons of choice , depending on the navy’s analysis of it future weapons and crafts. As at this moment it can be loaded with the same type fire control systems of the Nyayo class corvettes.
shujaa on the left. compare It with nyayo . only thing missing are the radars and missiles.
At the moment the navy doesn’t face any immediate threat .The Somali navy collapsed. Ethiopia sold its vessels when it became a land locked country after the Eritrean war. As a result the nyayo class boats (25 yres old) have no match in this coastal line other then Egypt and South Africa. And what’s the probability of engaging them? Lets use this period to spend our funds wisely. Other that routinely procuring new corvettes every 10 year, spend the cash in units that have a deficiency in arms or equipments.
The navy is now pursing inshore operations. The procuring smaller boats as opposed in purchasing larger corvettes is very much active.
Amphibious warfare is mainly an invasion operation. This is not high up in the “list of things to do” for the Kenyan military. But all in all Amphibious capabilities are available from the KNS Galana and Tana.. These are landing ships that can do such duties and have done so in joint exercise with the USMC like the Exercise EDGE MALLET.
I bet you never heard of the HSV-2 Swift.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HSV-2_Swift
It is a state of the art new ship for the USN. Amphibious supplies, mine countermeasures are just some of its duties.
guess who(nationality) runs the show in its operations stations?
HSV-2 swift built by Australians, who also built or otherwise the Houbei class of the PLAN Navy, on lease to the U.S Navy. As a result of their impressive performance on littorals the U.S Navy is building a littoral combat ship with the same Catamaran or Trimaran hull. Risasi, i belong to the sea.
Amphibious operations are invasion, correct. Only last year you were massing at th borders to invade Somalia. With efficient landing ships, couldn’t you have achieved the starategic advantage of hitting al-shabab at Kismayo through a marine force landing(Najua tuko na marines) while bulldozing them on land with the army? in any case, if Kenya were to find herself in a confrontational situation with Tanzania think of the massive advantage we would have with an amphib force. Please do not insult corvettes by calling navy missile boats corvettes. corvettes are like the braunshweig of the German Navy.
When I was mentioning the HSV-2 swift and its state of art performance I wanted to your attention, that although we don’t have allocated tools for amphibious assault we have competent brains doing the same task somewhere else. http://www.africom.mil/getArticle.asp?art=4101&lang=0
If indeed are in the navy then you must the Maj. An I don’t see why you think Galana and Tana can’t perform a mini amphibious assault if a need be. The operations you suggestion on Al-Shabab or Tanzania, would they be in jeopardy without an amphibious assault? I don’t think so. I also don’t fore see any confrontation with Tanzania.
When you say you belong to the sea its not the same as saying you belong to the Navy. The devil is in the details soldier. anyway back to the debate, i believe Tana and Galana cannot launch any significant amphib opperation because of their relatively small cargo hold. how many tanks can this two vehicles cary anyway, 4 combined? now does that make any difference when you are trying to establish a beachhead? at least two newer more capable vessels ought to do the trick. Though the said operations won’t be in jeopardy without the assistance of the Marines, it would certainly minimise casualties by distributing the threat evenly. Also think of the tactical advantage it affords us. We mass at the border, Al-shabab thinks that we will launch a land invasion and we support that by using recce aircraft to galvanise their misconception. Under cover of darkness, our amphib force slips out of Manda bay and launches a surprise invasion at Kismayo. They realise they are duped and a sizeable no of fighters are orderd from the borders to come defend their HQ in Kismayo. That’s when the Army strikes, when they are turning back to defend Kismayo. Result, total surprise=total annihilation of al-shabab. now tell me the amphibs are not neccesary.
Striking the opponent from the rear is a specialty of the 20th para. Bn.
Well if that’s what it takes to defeat the Al-shabab then the Americans would have done it by now. Not so? Si wako navyo hivyo viva? Hawa ni magaidi bwana, they don’t follow expected military Doctrines of troop managements. Further more what do they have in the HQ that they would die to part with? There are only maps and radios. Their HQ are not total nerve center as you would expect. Their HQ are spaced all over in Domestic homes. Take out one and they regroup to build again. The Americans tried it only to be humiliated at the end
how effective are the 20 para,wat armament do they have?
So does that mean we can’t have a contingency plan? seriously risasi, are you this impervious to change?
Risasi, we can completely wipe out al-shabab. That i say with confidence. If you want me to completely lay out a battle plan just say so, but not in this public forum. We have a very big advantage over the Americans and should we utilise this, we solve east Africa’s biggest headache.
It’s not a matter of being impervious to change. It’s an actual reality.equipments are procured with a grave thoughts in mind, and will be a part and parcel of the existing kenyan military doctrines and strategies. No unnecessary experiments, which could turn out to be costly and expensive manage in the future. No wishful thinkings. Nothing else other then a responsible evaluation, before committing any cash. How many times do you think the country wanted to buy Soviet Era equipments but didn’t because they wouldn,t fit in our matrix? You are suggesting we buy number of Hover crafts, troop boats and landing crafts which the probability of using them is minimal in a span so many years to come. The best the equipment will do is to draining out funds in attritions and trainings. This is tax payers money, that can be use else where in the military budgets for a better good. Previously I told you we have even halted procuring naval craft as we don’t anticipate any threat greater then what we have in store.
i have just noticed you either have a habit of exaggerating or you don’t notice the details in anything. I said “at least two newer more capable vessels ought to do the trick” i even said two! hover craft are unnecessary, troop boats pia but two more capable landing crafts to me are. Risasi you are a soldier, argue constructively don’t be so intent on adding words to my statement so as to discredit them.
naval vessels are expensive.i dont think any african navy would risk their priced boats in a out and out naval battle especially in this era of anti ship missiles like the Gabriel that said i do not foresee TZ or Sudan investing in a navy to rival our own too soon i think our waters are safe it is up to us to invest in a formidable navy that would act as a deterrent against potential enemies.but i think its high time we have a marine force on lake victoria.nothing big, a brown water landing craft and a sizeable specially trained force like the CDU.that would give M7 something to think about.
wewe bwana hivyo viva vyako havina mahali kwenye jesi letu at the moment. i don’t know how you arrive at two not three or more landing craft. You want to force it down my throat that it’s the right time to have an amphibious squadron. what are the bases of your facts? What organs have you used for your analysis and research to arrive at that quantity? i am telling you once again ,the crafts in mtongwe are adequate for the present and future threats. Any thing more would be good ok but it will be a waste of funds and the peaceful window that we can be used for betterment of our forces.
http://www.janes.com/articles/Janes-Sentinel-Security-Assessment-Central-Africa/Navy-Tanzania.html
I said two because with the neighbours we have we don’t need to ferry a whole armoured battalion via sea. two more vessels would supplement Kns Tana and Kns Galana because i believe that their current payload is way too insignificant. Risasi what’s wrong with you? i am not forcing this decision on you (by the way kwani wewe ndio unanunua hizi vitu?) I am posting arguments to support my point. The sooner you do the same the better chances you have of convincing me they are not necessary. But when you start answering me like an ignorant civy unworthy of your ideas, coz i feel you are going down that path, the easier i loose respect for your arguments. If it’s too much for you to answer si u radio in support? i may not quite be the layman you think i am.
It looks like we are looking at the same coin from different angles. You are posting you verdicts based on your rationality and instincts which I don,t have any track records of, while I am posting my arguments from a kenyan Military doctrines aspects. What else can I tell you more at this point?
i don,t procure for the armed forces as you said , but tax payers cash ought to be spend wisely
.
u guys are taking this 2 personally yet i think on the most crucial points you are in agreement.our navy has the ability to kick ass anywhere between Jo-burg n Cairo no questions asked.but this freedom of disagreement is what we are in the forces to protect.there is another blog going on and on about the F-5s this one is mostly about the naval capabilities.personally i would like a forum to have a healthy discussion about our land forces.specifically heavy armour, recce and APCs.any takes?
“D” you could start one. ama uambie chronicle to start one.
I’ am still confused by the T-72 tank saga. Popular opinion seems to indicate that the tanks were headed north and besides we are not known to use former East bloc weaponry.
However i find it inconceivable that Kenya can allow in excess of 100 such machines in the hands of an unstable neighbour adding to another batch of more than 100T-54s/T-55s delivered earlier. Are we not endangering our own security? What guarantee is there that Southern Sudan will not turn against us once they are independent and stable especially over the yet to be resolved Ilemi triangle? And they will use the same arsenal that we helped them to procure.
It might make a military sense to arm Southern Sudan in order to create a buffer zone between us and the arab north, but is this a prudent move? What if there occurs a regime change in the South that sides with the north and is hostile to Kenya. Somebody please enlighten me.
There is a lot more that happens inside DOD than meets the eye Mr. Olekoima. Let us assume for agruments sake that the T – 72s are indeed meant for GoSS. It takes a lot of logistics run an armoured battalion of that size.remember like all ground forces tanks are vulnerable without sufficient air cover is at all these tanks were meant for South Sudan the sheer number of these machines would warrant a visible push by the S. Sudanese to establish an Air Cav force.there would be reports of training of chopper pilots and grounded support staff for these birds all over.if anybody has heard of this please feel free to enlighten me. we would also had seen pictures of more tanks being shipped up north than the 15 that were all over TV.ask yourself where are the remaining 95?as far as i know the tanks we saw on TV were headed for training missions. No offence to GoSS despite them waging a long war against the north the tactics they used were guerilla tactics and are incompatible with the tanks that are reported to belong to them. plus they dont have the logistical support and knowledge to manage such a formidable tank batallion.a friend of mine in the 81st TB informed me that he had indeed participated in the commissioning and training of these tanks. to cut a long story short and answer your question all what you keep hearing is as a result of delibarate misinformation.
and by the way take a look at all the tanks made post the Vickers mk 3 era. in the west there is non that fits kenya’s use in terms of economy what is the use of breaking the bank to aquire even the early model challenger tank whose chobham armour will remain classified by the british. the Abrams uses a type of fuel that will be a logistical nightmare for us.besides we cant even afford it.make no mistake about it our troops are trained to use a wide range of military hardware.there are a couple of airforce boys who have flight time in the F-16,we still send officers to sandhurst to train with the best to be the best.the T-72 just happened to make sense at this time.
i tend to agree with “D”. The Abrahams is a fuel guzzler and with a gas turbine engine, it would be a nightmare to maintain. Plus at 60 tons, it would require a complete overhaul of our tank transport trucks! Leopard two(German) and the T-90 are just way to advanced for our backyard. it would be like going bush hunting with a laser gun. The T-72 makes perfect sense. It runs on a surprising list of readily available fuel, it is simple and cheap to maintain, it can survive in the tropics and it it’s better than anything the neighbours have at the moment. as for the T54 and 55’s we can safely assume those are for S. Sudan. I mean it just doesn’t make sense to have such museum types in our arsenal. Tango Oscar Nkarei, kindly tell let us know the status of the Pions, Grads and the impressive B-52 Nora(I must commend the armed forces on this one)
i think the one thing we can agree on is that on when it comes to artillery we are the cream of the crop.
AFFIRMATIVE.
Thanks ‘D’ and Jasiri. It is that that something doesn’t seem to add up with this South Sudanese angle. I mean it is almost impossible for a rag-tag army to transform itself overnight into a formidable outfit complete with a tank force almost thrice that of stable Kenya.
Hey “d” I am not so certain on the Field Artillery bit though. Have you had a look at TZ ‘s . Of all their capabilities, Artillery is the most preeminent, and indeed their defensive doctrine hinges on this. TZ have a hell of a lot of Pieces, and of a good mix, so that on a short, crisp exchange they might cause substantial damage. However, Kenya trains deeper in Usage of Artillery, as we do with all equipment and all formations – those fighter boys with F16Airtime Kenya also has greater resources much more easily brought on-line in case of a general mobilisation, as well as much more reliable and durable external defence treaties. But……
Jasiri, I would love to respond on the Pions, Grads and the impressive B-52 Nora, but these open sites make for some discomfort. I am certain you know what I mean.
i want to join kenya army after finishing my computer technology degree
Impressive blog indeed.Its significant to note that Tz millitary doctrine is defensive in nature and Kenya has no Scheeme to annex anybodys territory.Furthermore,Tz and kenya have good relations and no territorial disputes not withstanding the fact that Kenya has formidable resources to bring to bear on any armed forces in this hemisphere.I would appreciate this blog more if you observe and respond to the fact that we have more aggresive neighbors who either out of arrogance or an itch for a fight have entered and occupied Kenyas territory at will.Case in point: Our president and our prime minister have both maintained that Migingo is Kenyas territory yet kenyans are harrassed and extorted every day by an occupying force.Last time i raised this issue a Millitary man responded to me and said that Kenya millitary doctrine is besed on National interests and a clear and imminent danger to the country.Well,fine,my question is that even if Migingo does not pose the said clear and present danger,isnt the job of our forces to protect kenyan territory and kenyans anywhere and be patriotic and loyal to this land and not to inividuals.Is it not the job of our millitary advisors to tell the president that the pride of a nation and the solemn promise to keep it safe is the utmost endeavour that must be honored.Why are you guys going to far yet the trouble is on your back?
to one man army,
kikosi hakiwezi amka tu na kuamua kwenda vita. together with TZ the kenya army is the only one that acknowledges that it is under civilian authority. in short no orders no action.get it?
So D what you are saying is that you aree with me whats lacking is civilian leadership?If not whats your review of this situation?
I mean do you agree that land is sovereighn and we must protect and fight for every inch and that we took an oath to honor that irrespective of poor leadership?And i agree with you that we are under civilians but arent they human beings who are prone to mistakes?Where is the sober mind that took the oath to defend?
“Of all their capabilities, Artillery is the most preeminent, and indeed their defensive doctrine hinges on this” Ole Nkarei if the Pions and can pound Tanzania good then their artillery strength will be neutralised. Plus, the lack of any significant air force works heavily to their disadvantage. Our tiger and mosquito crews can wreck hell on their Arty sites. Our advantage mainly lies with the Nora. This mean machine is highly mobile meaning we can effectively employ shoot and scoot tactics.
one man army, utaimba utachoka. The Armed Forces is so heavily under civilian control that what you are writing is just the same as white noise to a radar operator. Do you know that even before the Kenya Military leaves for peacekeeping operations abroad, the Foreign affairs ministry must approve? Yeah, that is how tight the chains are.
“I am certain you know what I mean.” Kiapo cha utii. naeza kupa my persinal e-mail? what do you say?
Nisikilizi one man army. H.E and M7 are just playing with peoples mind. . Hawa ni wana siasa bwana. And they will do any thing in order to pacify a rough situation in their countries. Vile mimi na ona maoni yangu ,this is just a political game. Kwanza kisiwa hichi kina nini ? Migingo has nothing to fight for. It’s just a 5 acre piece of rock in the middle of a lake nothing more. According to me this Migingo story is just a political quencher for the H.E and M7. Whenever there is a political unrest in the countries, the story erupts. What a coincidence. The saga usually causes anxiety and some form of togetherness and patriotism for the citizens. They are using this saga to deviate the attention of the citizen when a political mess is prevailing.
Wewe just look at the timings or when the next Migingo issue will hit the Head lines. Then weight on the prevailing political situation either in Kenya or Ug. The H.E mpaka hivi sasa hajatoa ambri yoyote kuhusiana na kisiwa hichi, kama ninavyo juwa mimi. I don,t mean invading the island but just to tell his defense staff to look in and give possible ideas on regaining it. What about trade blockage from our country? Pia hiyo inamshida? He is so confident and reluctant. When the kibera boys damage the railway because of this issue, the railway track was immediately rebuild. The H.E and M7 both know what there doing.
Whenever the two meet in international spheres it doesn’t seem to me like, there is any animosity between the two leaders. Hii si mara ya kwanza. Mzee pia used it when he had political problems. Mwalimu claimed Kenya up to likoni. how absurd ?
Politics is a dirty game and there no permanent friends or enemies. The sting might be on us.
Yes TZ has an impressive stock of field artillery as Mr Ole Nkarei has stated above.However it is worth noting that a huge slice of Tanzania’s military inventory is rusty and therefore not operational. Doesn’t this then negate their advantage?
one man army, for a guy in uniform you are treading a dangerous course on a public forum. you know who the C in C is you know the defence structure and the laws the govern it. hell even the C in C cant order a war by himself, there has to be cabinet approval then parliament has to declare war before the C in C announces it in public. if the military acts on its own there is a word for it MUTINY and you know the consequences for that in fact if anybody was to retake the island it would be the AP boys. ask the commandant he is the first line of defence.
anyway on the issue of TZ artillery i think even if they have a wide range f peaces none of them has the range and firepower of the Pion. most of their artillery is not self propelled and with the lack of sufficient air cover our birds would do recce flights find out where the artillery is set up and the pions would do the rest. i think its dangerous to have a defensive doctrine relying heavily on artillery for some reasons.
1. most artillery pieces including howitzers and field guns are of the rifled category meaning to achieve range the have to fire in archs. what if the enemy force is deployed very close to you within minimum firing range?
2. most of TZ artillery is of the un armoured kind this makes them vulnerable to return fire from light rapid moving fire.
3. like i already mentioned they lack sufficient air cover for their stationery artie 3 -4 4 sorties by fighters flying low to avoid SAMS especially at night when light anti aircraft fire is at its worst is their worst nightmare.
to use this kind of doctrine you have to be very very good and efficient at protecting your strong points and as olekoima said their strong point is not that strong at the moment. i think it was just last year when their main artillery bunkers blew up with lots of munitions stored in it. hey risasi what do you think would happen if such a thing happened here?big heads would roll.speaking of big heads where is Maj. Ole Nkarei?
I hear Tz blames a neighbor from perpetuation the munitions blast disaster. “some neighbor wants to reduce his weapons stock pile.” In Kenya if happened at this moment ………….am out of words. But I am sure the Army CDR will have you as his lunch.
In Kenya it also almost happened in the naval missile deport. A technician working on a missile when the missile armed itself. The staff acted promptly. The Fleet Commander at the time Col. Suwero ordered the missile to be taken onboard, ipelekwe bahari Ika fyetuliwe. The technician managed to disarm it before the missile was destroyed.
Prompt actions and good management skills saved the day.
at the time of the explosion in TZ wasnt there a heads of state conference at roughly the same time?coincidence?i tend to think not.
Hey “D'”
Iam right here, present and ready…. Just kinda concerned at some of the expressions in this blog by some uniforms. Folks, we are SOLDIERS, the Elite in our Region, professional and worthy of pride and praise. Keep the Uniform guys!!Our discourse here should be intellectual and educational, by all means, but ….
I concur with your contention of the TZ Art component completely, and this is reflected in every studies that I have seen and partaken in . It is not a secret neither to the TPDF at all. And Heads of States of the East Africa Community were meeting in Arusha when the Dar Stock-pile blew up. I also dont see this happening in Kenya with the control regimen place currently.
To my brother in arms Risasi,
Am not suggesting that the army ignore the chain of command.This would be a violation of the oath they have vowed to uphold.It would be a betrayal to professionalism and the mandate under which the armed forces operate.
What am sugesting here is that ive seen such negative opinions about the army in regard to failures to respord appropriately when our territory is violated. When thugs from neighboring countries violate our borders at will the common knowledge is that our forces are inept.As a matter of fact its said that we have never chased these thugs beyold our noses unlike other countries who will persue them past their borders.Remember that its not the A.Ps who take the blame though they own the biggest share to handle these situations.Its always the army thats to blame.Now,shouldn’t the chain of command be adequate enough to effectively address what gives our army a bad name?I mean is there a lack of mandate and appropriate advice to deal with such.Look,from piracy,common border violatios to God knows what,i feel there has to be a clarity as to how far we ought to go to protect this land.I may be to the far right of the pendulum,a bit randicle indeed but i feel we are not mandated to do enough or rather our commanders are working with their hands tied at their backs.’
one man army i think your posting should be dericted to D and not Risasi
one man army, nipe number ya C.O wako. You need to be charged. Ama upelekwe refresher course. the gulf of Aden is between Africa and Arabia. That is where piracy thrives best and the closest Naval stations are not kenyan one ,but French and American, in Djibouti. piracy is done in areas way out of reach from an effective rapid response action from the Kenya navy. Our media has made it look like it’s an area where the navy ought to send a speed boat with troops to intervene the pirates.the truth is It is away out from of our territorial water border let alone a Kenyan naval station. This areas are almost 2000km from the patrol areas of the Kenya navy . the distance is like traveling from Mombasa to kisumu and back to around mombasa again. So don,t confuse yourself and think that the piracy is happening at a stone throw distance from Kenyan Naval stations.
http://mappery.com/map-of/Pirate-Attacks-off-Coast-of-Somalia-Map
map of east africa
cmon one man army u wear the uniform you know the code of conduct and how things work its not that simple.we have always solved thing first through diplomatic means and as far as i know in all these cases of the borders being violated diplomacy has not yet failed. when it comes to piracy most of it takes place in somali or international waters. its just not in our jurisdiction thats why we let the world prefects handle it.besides its their ships that are being hijacked and its their dollars that get paid as ransom.i know that currently almost a dozen kenyan citizens have recently being hijacked by those bandits.the government is taking care of it through the best way they know how.
What happened to the Hawk 52s from BAE? Were they retired? I thought they relatively newer than the F-5s that were already in the inventory. If retired what is their replacement especially on ground attack role.
Separately isn’t it time Kenya considered purchasing a multi-role fighter jet?
Can our Tucanos also be used as light attack planes?
am not airforce but i think the hawks are still operational although not in their original numbers. secondly the F – 5 are multirole fighters in fact the F-5 A/B was intended for a light fighter/ground attack role.but i think Jasiri is better informed in this issue.tupe majibu bwana.
Olekoima, the Tucanos can indeed be used as light agressors. they have four hard points under their wings. Judging by the look of the air frame however i can safelly say they can’t take 1 ton of ordnance in a single sortie. They are well suited for COIN(COunter INsurgency) ops due to them being propeller driven.
“D”, F-5 A/B are indeed ground attack fighters with limited air-air capability. The only difference between the two is that the B version has pilots sitting in tandem(one behind the other) while the A version is a single seat fighter. subsequent variants have been made as all rounders i.e air-ground, air-air unlike their previous counterparts who were optimized for ground attack. In the modern sense however, i would agree with Olekoima that Kenya needs a true multi role air craft. One with anti-ship, ground attack, air supperiority and the ability to act as a mini AWACS. That would be a huge plus for our fly boys. Did you know that most modern aicraft have the ability to pass targets between 9 others? in addition to that, the can target a missile launched from another aicraft within the formation.
Olekoima, the Tucanos can indeed be used as light aggressors. they have four hard points under their wings. Judging by the look of the air frame however i can safely say they can’t take 1 ton of ordnance in a single sortie. They are well suited for COIN(COunter INsurgency) ops due to them being propeller driven.
“D”, F-5 A/B are indeed ground attack fighters with limited air-air capability. The only difference between the two is that the B version has pilots sitting in tandem(one behind the other) while the A version is a single seat fighter. subsequent variants have been made as all rounders i.e air-ground, air-air unlike their previous counterparts who were optimized for ground attack. In the modern sense however, i would agree with Olekoima that Kenya needs a true multi role air craft. One with anti-ship, ground attack, air superiority and the ability to act as a mini AWACS. That would be a huge plus for our fly boys. Did you know that most modern aircraft have the ability to pass targets between 9 others? in addition to that, the can target a missile launched from another aircraft within the formation.
By the way Nairobi Chronicle, where are the pics Risasi sent you?
Jasiri,
The Nairobi Chronicle does not appear to have published any new articles since September last year. I thing our bogs have getting routed through word press. I wonder if the Nairobi Chronicle is temporarily closed. Someone please confirm.
huyu jama kama atshindwa tutengezeni face book. i notice its a nice place
Very good idea, but an even better one why don’t we build the official unofficial website of the Kenya Defence Forces? Have you noticed how the MoD website is devoid of anything interesting? Bora tu you guys don’t soil your commission.
kusema tu ukweli that MoD website iko down IT Dept. in MoD should really spruce it up Jasiri if i could build that website i would ave but my comp skills are are basic. Risasi there is already a Kenya Army group on facebook a bit dormant though.
“D”, i could build one but i would need a lot of info that only you guys can provide(non classified material) That facebook group is indeed dormant, i happen to be a member but i don’t see the value in being one.
WOW! guys, did you know that the K.N.S Jasiri can be equipped with a helipad? here is a picture of it’s sister ship (note: before extension) equipped with a helipad http://img.over-blog.com/299×208/0/18/12/34/photos-2007/fulmar_6-copie-1.jpg . I have always said this ship is long enough to carry a chopper now it’s confirmed. On the downside though, it has no hangar for the chopper.
Talking of the KNS Jasiri, i’ am disappointed it had to be subjected to all unnecessary debate. I have since established that it is not the fishing vessel that we were made to believe by some activists. This ship should be delivered immediately if this has not happened already.
Ma activist wana lipi kama si unafiki? i have little respect for these guys, remember Op Okoa Maisha? ati this activists realised kuna watu wanateseka afta the military moved in! Such hypocrisy is like undressing your mother!
arent they the same people who were rantin n ravin when those SLDF sons of pigs were busy hackin our people?people get killed by threats….they complain…we do our job n eliminate the threat….they complain.we have a good ship in the KNS Jasiri i say lets bring that boat home commision it n send it against those pirate slugheads. even though it doesnt have a hangar am thinking of countless ways that helipad could be a priceless asset.
Yes and they are the same people who always rant when the police engage criminal gangs yet they are quiet when the police get killed. Kwani the police and other disciplined forces are not themselves human beings?
These activists can easily put a country’s security are risk. I think they should be ignored.
Are the WZ-9s meant to supplement or to eventually replace the MD500 defenders?
I notice from Jane’s that the MD 500 is a highly regarded machine. How does the WZ- 9 fare in comparison ?
the MD 500 design originated from scout and observation choppers. its small fast and maneuverable this however limits it TOW carrying abilities the WZ – 9 is bigger but much less maneuverable and its design originates from a utility chopper the Z – 9. this means their roles are different on the battle field even though they both have Anti Tank Abilities.so to replace i dont think so supplement most likely.although am not sure which is supplementing which in my view the MD 500 is a much better machine.
This Sudanese Military Industry, how is it of any value to the Sudanese armed forces?
I have always wondered how easily Sudanese forces have been getting beaten by various rebel groups despite the overwhelming support of arms from their military industry.
Some goons riding on machine gun mounted rusty technical s have been having the better of them. Doesn’t this beat logic?
Or may be they don’t have access to these arms. Puzzling.
those machine gun mounted technicals can be very effective in an open battle field with little cover. case in point chad vs libya.the sudanese military industries mainly produce copies of small arms they dont have the capacity to produce heavy armour and other sophisticated machinery. a competent force is not just the equipment you have but the training on said equipment, competent leadership, morale and other things.maybe even luck isnt on their side.
Personally i think if Kenya were to opt to replace the mosquito they should strongly consider the Kamov-50. Man! this machine is armed to the teeth! and it’s armour can be compared to a flying apc!!!
Guys the activists are at it again. ati we used 27b for arms purchases and they are asking what for. hahahaha ati now they say we bought tanks and rifles from the Ukraine when only a year ago they were saying ni za S. Sudan! This guys are crazy. but this only confirms Major’s conspiracy theory, someone somewhere is fueling this story.
i have good hopes with our armies.keep it up and strong airborne.
‘Ati’ gross miscarriage of justice?. I thought each ministry is allocated its fair share of the budget. Do people expect the DOD to go shopping for food?
These activists should give us a break. They never cease to criticize.
Actually the figure for 2009, not including stores acquirred through bilateral assistance, training on similar arrangements, spares and other equipment from treatied countries, is closer to Ksh45Billion! But have these fellas tunnel vision, or are they quite illiterate and cannot read, or are they simply charlatan idlers with more smoke than substance? By the very same type of criminal sensationalisation of issues poorly understood by them, in 2007, they brought our country down to its knees, burning and interally bleeding.Stalin would have a good number of these fellas lined up before a wall, and be done with them. The economic news is all around us, in all manner of places, that aptly justify this sort of expenditure in Equipment and Manpower. In any case the expansion of any economy verily hinges on dealing with the commensurate expansiono of both domestic and foreign risks that ensue from perceived financial expansion. Not to mention that government spending all across the globe is the single biggest multiplier to economic expansion. Kenya will not grow unless we are strong, strong enough to enforce the fifty years deterrence over envious and squabbing neighbours. The flip side is that we keep one goat for fear of attracting envious thieving neighbours, or disfiguring our beautiful daughters lest they attract amorous immoral attention. Keep our focus, people!!
Take a civil example of a town like Nakuru into which have been congregating Gikuyu businessmen long established in the Rift Valley prior to the 2007 Debacle. From their massive re-investment into Nakuru town, as they divest from Eldoret, Kericho, etc..the town is bursting at the seems with vibrant economic activities. Along with this, comes the populations that follow such activities, either speculatively or purposefully, dislocated or migrant, into which mix is a sizeable idle, viciously disconnected youthful citizenry that find no resonance with the economic booms taking place around them. But the Government has not added one Agent of security policing into this exploding situation, neither have previous strategies and programs for combating insecurity changed one iota in the interim. Same numbers, same dance! What do you expect will happen in this sort of situation? Any soldier will tell that no situation of adversity is managed without an programmed aggressive reaction to it, and a great part of which depends on the quality and extent of Planning and Planning. So the Armed Forces in Kenya keeps you safe by Planning in all facets and for all facets, and has thus far kept you relatively safe. What a thankless lot kenyans have become!
We are better of with men like Nkarei and the like minded thinkers in charge.When as a country you wield a bigger economy,you should boot a formidable army to march.Unfortunately the phantoms and the crazies are in charge.my view is that given the size of our economy,our army should be twice the size and the equipment should be of undoubtable lethality.Needless to say,billions have been embezzled and squandered by lunatics leaving us settling for third generation equipment that in few years will me modules in the future Kabarnet MUSEUM.We may not be badly off compared to our neighbors but you dont settle for the top of the roof just because your enermy is lodged in the gutters.Aim for the sky and never reach it than aiming for the roof and getting there.
welcome major, where have you been? as usual controversy follows you around hehehehe. anyway i agree with “.i have only one wife ,lucy.” for an economy our size, we should have a far more superior army. However this decision should not only be guided by the size of our economy but by our trade and foreign policies. To have a superior army with a superior economy will automatically translate to an expansionist policy which i’m sure our government doesn’t pursue. However, should we choose to strengthen our economy further, it would mean that we should have access to resources. Resources that in my view are not plentiful in our country. Naturally we would look for them somewhere, probably in the Congo. For that we will need a very strong military and defence industry to influence either the Congolese govt or the rebels. and that’s the tactic all resource hungry giants used. A strong an big military is vital in giving us negotiating or threatening clout while at the same time it’s a very viable economic asset. Directly and indirectly, it provides jobs to the populous and helps secure material vital for economic growth and sustenance. this is why such terms as “protection of sea lanes”, “assistance to our allies” have been coined. More often than not these terms ussually refer to military involvement in one or more aspect of the whole idea of trade with the particular nation. That’s why “co-operation” exercises like the edged mallet are held with precise frequency. Unless we in Kenya are really serious in building a mega economy, a robust military in modern sense will always be stimulating mirage that will never be achieved. If we intend to pursue it, then a strong military does not only serve to achieve the above, but it also helps in liberating us from the leash of “allies” such as the U.S and Britain because then we will be equals or at least we will be able to inflict serious damage in their neo-colonialistic image
Here in Kenya we may not have been endowed with unlimited resources but the core of our strength and character is that we the people are hardworking and know how to hussle.Ive been to various countries in the west and Kenyans constitute the top among africans.This curiosity that has drove millions to seek for greener pastures is the one that has made us the bhiggest economy in this region.Its not the resources though we are very resouceful in character and ingenuity.Our biggest problem i reckon is the biggest trouble make in kenya………………..THE KENYAN GOVERMENT.Present an oppinion!
i do happen to agree with you on that. Kenyans’ resilience is unparalleled by any people i’ve met. In spite of all we still maintain a positive outlook to the future. One big letdown however is that we lack courage to make tough decisions. If as a civilian you feel the government is shortchanging you, what have you done? If after 47 years of independence we still find a scapegoat in blaming the govt aren’t we the civilians also part of the whole mess?
Thanks, Jasiri. Deployed out, but back for some R&R. Blog’s getting there, more informative and educational. I see clearly you guys have held your own pretty well. I see all three facets are now engaged, I see the depth of knowledge transverses all three – “Risasi”, “D”, “Olekoima”, “Mikco” of the Paras, “jasiri”, Great stuff – might even adopt this blog to replace that Moribund MoD site that’s proven so difficult to jumpstart, eh? You guys have put perspective into blogs such as these when contributions are informative and factual, and even when conjecture is derived from logically progressed thinking. Your exposition above is spot-on, and I elated you ran point on this coz I reckon it is time we turned this blog into a strategic thinking-blog to mull about just this sort of extrapolated thinking, even if academic. Lets get away from the little bits earlier clogging this blog! What say you’ll? And the more uniforms in this blog the better so as to lessen the attendant risks of disinformation and CI stings. Ama??
what i go away for a few days and this blog just blows up!well done guys this is exactly the kind of thinking a professional blog needs helps keep the hard headed “i dont want to learn but i know it all” ignoramuses out.since ancient egypt it has always been more resources = more power = more enemies.that is why defense budgets are put in percentages not fixed figures Japan has capped this at 1% if their GDP goes up this year that 1 % will not be the same 1% of last year.i also agree that the military should be at least double the size it is now with double the current equipment.i still maintain total faith with our current stores.what is seen on wikipedia is not the whole picture.
“I have one wife” – you are obviously not uniformed, or you would understand explicitly that we don’t express ever such opinions on our Civilian Oversight such as you have done. I dont mean that soldiers havent such opinions, and I dont mean that I disagree with your opinion. Heck, the last guys that did so 28 years ago literally lost their heads, hanged from a tree, man! But this discipline is what keeps us out of your business, keeps us Uniform in the barracks, a sort of a balance of terror – so to speak. And as undesirable to you as it might be, is what sets Kenya apart from our neighbours, and you should be grateful for this. So, you want to kill this blog, drive away the Uniforms, dry out their contributions on these matters of Military and Intelligence nature, then continue to express yourself in this manner. Such a pity it would be, coz you could learn a hell of alot by encouraging the Uniforms to share their specialist knowledge on blogs such as these, you will certainly expand your view. C’mon, buddy, lets not kill the blog, ama?
These guys have gone completely AWOL, and I am now calling them –
A T / PAIN IN THE ASS / PARTISAN / ABC / KAGENDO / MWISTER / WALTER.
Fellas, your posts are needed, keep blogging!!
These guys have gone completely AWOL, and I am now calling them out –
A T / PAIN IN THE ASS / PARTISAN / ABC / KAGENDO / MWISTER / WALTER.
Fellas, your posts are needed, keep blogging!!
Yes, I was AWOL for a while, but I’m back. Academic students have a way of sucking the life out of me when the school year is about to end.
Meanwhile, let me catch up on the conversation before I throw in my civilian two cents with your lot.
Major Nkarei.
I think you mis-understood me.I do not wish to sling mud on the terms of your service to the country for i would me left with the biggest portion of the dirt.I do not wish to hurl insults.I have stated or rather implied here or elsewhere that our soldiers have done their job and done it well.I submit that from any credible source i could lay my hands on,our forces have in general secured a good name.What i see when i look around is a nation under siege and somebody better be planning for appropriate response.Look at it this way,the only border that is remotely secure is the one with TZ.From the coast to the north,to the west there are many trouble spots that leaves us wondering the efficiency and the mandate of our forces.This is not guess work ive been there.I must admit that i have read your blogs major and you’ve earned my respect and trust.Do you acknowledge that some events that have happened around us should be iven more urgency and seriousness they deserve?Even the most proffesional armies in the world have gone beyold borders,bridges, beyold birth to protect their citizens.We have not!
I do agree with you sir. For example when the M.V Faina was hijacked by “pirates” the government sent out G.S.U personnel. Last ime i had credible info, the rapid response unit in el-wak had all of it’s vehicles breaking down. Two splendid soldiers are killed in Nadapal the government does nothing, Merrille bandits pitch tent 15 kM Iinto Kenya THE GOVERNMENT STILL DOES NOTHING! I get what you are saying, it pains me so much that of late i just don’t want to watch news. The soldiers have done and are doing their best, but the politicians are letting us all down. I pray to God that things will not be the same come 2012.
“I have one wife…” my apologies, buddy. You have heart in the right place, that is for certain. And you make good observations, raising forthright queries that deserve equally forthright answers. I am certain we all shall explore together your queries and try to establish a strategic perspective on them. Pole bana!
Jasiri,
you have nailed my point and without repeating what you have said,i know in some countries thugs sneaking in and killing security forces would ignite a co-ordinated,robust response that goes beyold any marked boundaries.Lets admit that there should be a protocal that governs how such criminals who attack our secutity posts should be dealt with.And here again i do not fault the army.But who talks for our soldiers?Who mandates them on how far they should go?
I would like to see more done.We cant be a country that allows thugs from neighbouring states harass us without hitting back hard.
Major Nkarei,
On a personal note i encountered you first when you firmly defended the purchase of T 72s to a reporter from Nairobi chronicles.I have seen someone on one of these blogs suggest that you are not who you say you are and that pissed me off.I’ve no doubt you are one of the finest the army has to offer based on what ive concurred as your views and matters millitary.Kudos over! I even followed keenly when you hammered one Spartan with real stuff about why U.p.d.f does not count.I believe you when you say youve been deployed in the great lakes for ive seen your name somewhere else confirming what youve said all along.All am saying is that ive no doubt am communicating to a real soldier who knows his stuff.
Now major,lets admit that no army is perfect but in your own views what is the major setback that ties the hands of our soldiers resulting in so many incidents commited against us without acting?Even Uganda,Rwanda,Ethiopia just to name a few have crossed borders of their neighbours to chase rug tag thugs who harass their people.Over.
Covering for Maj. Tom
“i have only one wife” you are only seeing a fraction of the picture, its allowed to talk like that. Most kenyan operations are classified and wouldn,t be released in the media for security reasons. So you would not know about them. Even some military staff wouldn’t know about them until they hold or act in certain offices in DOD. but believe me retaliations from kenya into other countries do exist more then you can imagine but is not published.
“i have only one wife”
hey i feel you a lot of rotten stuff is happening in our country its a real shame and just like Jasiri i dont watch the news these days. But i think the military is one of the few bastions of sanity left in the society the least we can do is to uphold the law the best we can. But dont think we just sit back and do nothing when our security is threatened. We unlike our neighboring armies have a different modus operandi 50 years from now when some of our classified actions are put out into the public i hope you and i will still be around maybe you can then get the big picture all you have to do is listen and watch for the signs for example the media might report a high ranking terrorist official blown up by a car bomb deep inside his territory maybe we could blame it on a faulty fuel line or a rival faction or maybe it could be some over ambitious subordinates but no clear answer is ever known. Why spend billions in an all out conflict when a single bullet from a well trained sniper would suffice?Think about it.
Enough with the details, guys – there are good men still deployed. Need-to-know applies. On such matters, “i have one wife” you will just have to keep your faith and trust that our core duty of keeping our borderies safe is discharged daily and at great cost to your brothers in Uniform. Tis why we exist, mate, and are damn good at it too. We remain focussed and motivated. You heard of that funny man that died last week in Mogadishu? Well…
Major “You heard of that funny man that died last week in Mogadishu? Well…” utajiingiza kwa shida with such comments. Kwanza there was this jamaa who was shot by “gunmen” in Kismayo, al shabab stronghold.
I have always respected our spec ops guys. Remember when those Italian nuns were kidnapped? as condition for their release, the militiamen demanded that several important members of their terror network grabbed by Kenyan security agents be released. That shows the depth of black ops in our security forces and also the accuracy in intell of the Kenyan intelligence agency. By the way the Mossad is described fully as ” The institute for intelligence and special operations” kinda wat “D” is advocating for.
That’s the “funny man”, Jasiri. Black ops is tops, tis what they fear, our adversaries, and never certain how compromised their Intel structures are. Disinformation, Take-outs, Disruptions, etc,, Under every Rock they look. Quick, hard, like a shadow in the dusk. They know we’ve come – signs that tell. And return for some more, if the message isn’t read enough. So they walk gingerly around Kenya, lest the sky falls on them!! Thirty years in groove, guys!
remember in high school the guys who used to sneak every weekend and never got caught but still in class they did real good?the ones you could never fully understand.no matter how much trouble they got in the never squealed but never bragged about it this country is full of black ops talent. the cream of the crop makes it to the forces gets picked up by D company or CDU and others……yes there are other units.need to know like major says.its the inborn Kenyan cunning, ingenuity n toughness am talking bout. when the bad guys get hit they never know what hit em. forget about putting missiles and tanks on parade every year, or tough talkin AK 47 carrying C in Cs we dont need to do that to earn our respect. If anyone tries anything funny some one just need a sniper rifle and a clear line line of sight pack up your gear boys the war is over.they say it aint bragging if you can back it up right?
How is it that one country with ONE tribe, ONE language, ONE religion, ONE monolithic culture, and ONE deadly expansionist national obsession based on it’s essential nomadic wasteful culture, has been at war with itself for 17 years, and HAS defeated all and every efforts to being unity and peace to it? If you consider that the Horn of Africa would never have peace with a strong and united Somalia – without making wholesomely unpalatable large-scale concessions to Somalia, you wouldn’t wonder where Kenya’s Vital National Interests in this conflict lies!! Further factor in that Somalia has the largest known OFF-SHORE Oil reserves anywhere in the world (apart from the Artactic South Pole – which is contested by conflicting economic blocs!) and hence has inherent limitless possibilities of Growth and prosperity, and do you still wonder what these our National Interests are?
at one time, Somalia was building Africa’s largest Navy. i can’t explain enough the implications this would have had on our sea borne trade. A united and strong Somalia is definitely Kenya’s worst nightmare. We’d rather deal with with a crazy somali with a suicide vest and an A.K than with a crazy Somali with a fleet of warships, multi squadrons of warplanes and a sea of tanks!
If you can get the strong man to bleed from self-inflcted wounds, you will defeat him no doubts. That is how you fight the stronger better armed person – you weaken him from within himself. As unpalatable is this will sound to alot of you chaps, Kenya’s Vital National Interests are served by the imposion of Somalia, and this despite the ONE Tribe,ONE Language, ONE Religion, ONE culture! Brilliant scoop by any score, from a purely military standpoint, eh?
A powerful united somalia with an organised armed forces being a threat to kenya is not a new possibility.When somalia was one country they claimed our territory and that of ethiopia hoping to build greater somalia leading to kenya and ethiopia signing treaties that guarenteed millitary assistance if somali attacked.I expect that if that were the case now we would deal with them appropriately.Them being powerful would not be bad idea after all since we would always strive too stay one step ahead of them.I guarantee their activities would not go unnoticed .
well well well look whose back mr one man army. i think somalia is light years away from forming a conventional fighting force worthy of our counteraction.their “government” controls only a small part of the capital barely the size of buruburu and this is the help of AU forces and Ethiopia in the 60s this country had the biggest and most formidable army in Africa these guys were having their officers trained abroad while we were still depending on the queen for protection the most fascinating thing to me is that its not a foreign army that did them in there was no invasion they just imploded just like that poof it was gone. we have nothing to fear from somalia apart from the odd suicide bomber if they are crazy enough.in fact if anyone was to form a somalian army for them it would be us. after all those years i would think they would not think of biting the hand that will feed them coz that hand knows where the toothless spots are.
it\s really sad what Ethiopia is going through. Does anyone agree with me that Ethiopia is headed the Somalia way? At least they wont be able to build the Bir dam and we would have a ready supply of beautiful Amharic chics.
Haha! Seriously? The beautiful Amharic chics are the first thing you thought of.
However, with that being said, Ethiopia is a few steps away from chaos. My 9 to 5 forces me to stay connected with the political side of things in Sub-Saharan Africa. All I get these days are propaganda reports from both sides of the divide, and stories on athletics.
In the west, we hear a lot about Eritrea being in cahoots with the Somali rebels. Where does this country lie in the Eastern Africa dynamics? Friend or foe?
with regards to Somalia from military achieve it was a threat
to Kenya. somalia army strated out weak composing of 5,000 men but a $32million military grant from Russia changed the tides. The army grew from 5,000 to 23,000 men. Somali actually started as two states somalia and somali land. These states then merge into one and an ambition for a greater somalia composing of all somali speaking tribes in the region, grew. the russian military grant had trained somalia in advance war tactic’s for this region among them proxy war and insurgent operations.
The Somalia Gov’t mounted insurgent operations into kenya with an aim of partitioning kenya along the somali speacking tribe back to Mogadishu. Our spy chief then James Kanyotu’s realized this and Brief the Head of State, who called for a cabinet meeting. The out come was that the young Kenyan state was to take the war back into Mogadishu. A British military expatriate Lt. Col R.S. Richmond was given the task and was confident that he could excute it. James Kanyotu’s had a second plan which was in two phase
1. Internal phase: Psychological Operations by the VoK to calm down the country by baptise the Somaili insugents as SHIFTA’S i.e local tribes fighting for pastoral area.
2. External phase: if he was given TIME he could deal with Somalia covertedly at higher levels.
Time was expensive with regards to the havoc that the insurgents were doing to our military and civilians in the north. A plan had to be devised to create time. Somali was offered a bait “lets discus peace” and she swallowed it hook, bait plus the sinker. Under the table Somalias aim was a window for regrouping and re-train the insurgents for Deep penetration into the Kenyan capital Nairobi. This would force the Gov’t to grant the north frontier a self autonomy.
The peace deal was signed ,Kanyotu got his chance and started excuting his plan. Somali on it side strated its regrouping retraining strategy’s. Kenyatta did his part and told the west “sell us modern equipments or else we will go and procure them else where” The west blinked and offered the F-5 and Hughes program among many. a program they were relactant to release. Guys like captain Nandi among others were taken for a crush F-5 program’s.
by the time Somali realized what was going on it was to late Kenya had re armed it self.
a reminder declaration was issue to Somalia Gov’t a break in the peace agreement will lead to preemptive strikes with a united nation mandate.
Back then if a war broke out it was a 50% 50% chances of winning but it favor leaning toward the Mogadishu Gov’t. the airforce had Strikemaster and Hawker hunters against Mig17 and Mig21. the Migs had proved them self in the Korean wars. Somalia had well trained men.
Although the country lagged in experience and equipments Good brains saved the day.
Exactly, Risasi. The Somali Crisis that have defied all logic can only be understood if one looks at them from their effect on our Vital National Interests – then and now. Let’s chat of this situation as a typical Counter-Insurgency Operation, and barrow into our unique experience with the SHIFTA. Greatest Challenge in the earlier war was sorting out the sheep from the Goats – One people, one language, one monolithic culture, one religion, etcc.. Kenya won really by default the first round, for a variety of reasons not least of which are those skilful manouvriing by Kanyottu and others in Kenya at the timem, but the tide turned when the beast began to bleed itself, and led to a closure of open direct hostilities then – the Clans turned against each other in a senseless orgy of violence the source of which had nothing to do with their previous history. Then came the Said Barre’s scare of the early eighties when Somalia expressed by deed and intentions it’s age-old expansionism, firstly in the Ogaden against Ethiopia, and later by a Kenya-specific threatening military posturing & deployments combined with Communist defense connections in a country whose history and culture run counter to all tenets and philosophy of Marxism!! How did we face this new and very real threat to our Sovereignty? We could have resulted to an Open Arms Race and and Expansion of Men in Uniforms, we had the stronger economy, better educated Population and with better international connections. But a clearly war-untested population, plus developmental priorities not uniquely set by ourselves demanded a more cost-effective and more-subtle approach & prosecution of our response. So out came the old Counter-Insurgency ploys to slay the beast by his own hand, (same demography in Northern Kenya as in Somalia ) and we have been at it since, fellas!! An endless chain of event that feeds upon itself, the strategic objective to ensuring that state-organized hostilities against the Kenya Territory will never happen. We can deal very ably with the opportunistic gang-incursions into our territory resultant. A generation or so later, the Geopolitical realities are altering dramatically different considering the on-going virtual intergrationof the Somali people in Kenya presently. Then, the Somali Mess will vanish as if it never was,
The last line caught my eye: “integration of Somali people in Kenya.”
Around civilian circles out here, I have heard this being brought up as a severe concern. Some Kenyans feel like we are trying to tame a crocodile by integrating them. There are fears of rebels being able to strike in the heart of the country with support from community networks in the capital and funding from proceeds of piracy (suspected of being laundered in the Kenyan economy).
These fears could be a product of stereotypes and perceptions cultivated over the years by all the happenings. But from a military standpoint, what are we risking by integrating our neighbours?
I am going in, fellas. Keep the blog alive. Catch you’all In a couple weeks then,
Speaking of Vital National Interests. Picture this today Kenya declares it has struck economically viable oil deposits in the North Eastern Province following this Ethioppia starts drilling to its south and gets luckywe already know that Ug has Oil same as Southern Sudan. what would be the consequences especially in the sphere of military balance in the region?would Eastern Africa be a more secure place ama aje?
i think Ug and South Sudan’s successes in Oil mining only serves to make them more dependent upon Kenya. When you really think about it, Uganda can do nothing coz when we close their pipes, no Oil will flow to the world through Msa. Same goes for S. Sudan. The most sensible thing for them to do is to sign a mutual defence treaty with Kenya so that in case the rabid Ethiopians try something Makmendeish we can collectively beat their asses to Sheba’s heydays all in the name of protecting our Oil pipelines. I kinda like this scenario.
that’s considering that they want to access the sea through Mombasa.
Recently i accessed some information about the past conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea and i was shocked at how ethiopians were massacred.How could they fail to subdue the eritreans given their numerical and millitary strength.Are they overestimated by any analysis?
one man army, u sure surprise me. you are a soldier yet you can’t understand this? an army is only as potent as the tactics it uses. Ethiopian army is weak in tactics an logistics. the Eritrean army of the time was small but highly mobile and that’s where they pinned the Ethiopians. No matte how large or strong an army appears on paper it doesn’t automatically mean it will win every war hands down. case in point, arab-israeli war of the 60’s and 70’s That’s food for thought for the Kenya armed forces.
it actually depends on which conflict you are refering to ethiopia and eritrea have had 2 major clashes the first being the eritrean war of indipendence (1961 – 1991) the second being the eritrea – ethiopia 1998 – 2000. In both conflicts the ethiopians were given an absolute walloping although the second war is recorded as an ethiopian military victory dont think any of the officers who served in that war will be bragging much because of the losses their incurred to an army less equipped in terms of manpower and firepower. it is a puzzle really how they fared so badly when all the advantages that are usually there for small armies were distincly unavailable for eritrea especially lack of cover for guerrilla warfare both sides kept on entrenching themselves like it was world war 1 and the ethiopians like the suckers they are became impatient and decided to go for the human wave attack. needless to say they got slaughtered. its only that they had more men in their ranks if the numbers were a bit more balanced ethiopia would have been thoroughly humiliated.
Jasiri
Its not that i don’t put into consideration factors like logistics,tactics,discipline,mobility and the purpose of the mission but i was exploring other factors that could have gone wrong for ethiopians since i dont believe they fought a war without preparing for it.I tend to believe something drastic happened here.
i think it is largely because the Ethiopians underrated the Eritreans. and they were rudely jolted back to reality!
To add on the above eritrea – ethiopia 1998 – 2000:
The Ethiopian airforce (which should have tilled the balance of power) was operating as a branch of the army. It was as good as an air artillery unit. It offered support to the army and never propagate towards the core airmen business which should have crippled the Eritrean .i.e. their sorties were to bomb and to pave way for the army to move.
Due to the fact that the Eritrean offices were once part of the Ethiopia military, they knew what to and not to expect from there foes. they all had undergone the same training and knew all small details that any army would like to know about its opponents. They had very good “intelligence” of their advisories. Field frequency, code names, equipment ranges, FOB components etc Unlike the other way round for the Ethiopians towards the newly formed Eritrean armed forces. Intelligence is like 60% win in war.
The Ethiopia army is large but only in its barracks. here the soldiers are taken care for and feed by their wives and salaries . Some how their field logistic failed. Ethiopia couldn’t constantly rearm and feed their men in the fields. only the will supported units became effective.
Risasi. how do you gauge airborne and air cavalry units in the region in terms of doing their core functions like cutting off enemy supply lines, disruption of communications, rapid deployment and rapid extraction tactics, behind enemy lines combat and the such likes.in your opinion barring all classified material of course who are the best and who are the worst amongst all the conventional armed forces?Rhetorical question i know, let me put it this way who is number 2 and who follows after that there is very little info on this field out there.
with all YY,s operating we are 3rd if not 2nd largest gunship air Calvary in Africa after Egypt. Well trained and have +25yres expiries in that art These choppers can do a fairly good job in counter attacking , tank killing, ambushes by hid in trees tops and if the wind is towards then you will hardly hear them. We learnt to use them to there optimum. they operate wire guided missile which are very accurate. Our neighbors operate the Mi24 “flying crocodiles” a good gunship comparing with what it can carry i.e 8 troop with ordinance but has short comings. the sitting arrangement of the gun observer and the pilot are in tandem this limits the view of the pilot who sits behind the gun observer. solutions is to hunt in packs and look out for each other. This is not possible for Ug as they x4 Mi24.Its weight limits its maneuverability and forcing it can lead in a chopping off of the tail with its main rotor. I know of a kenya pilot who evaded an Rpg round with a MD500, it will be a hard maneuver for the Mi24.
When it comes to airforces it is a tricky subject. We know Ethiopians for using mercenaries to fly their jets. this therefore increase man hours and experiences in there airforce. Therefore facing a well trained Ex-Soviet pilot in an Su27 needs a lot of resilience and combine efforts. Mu7 too seems to be following the same suite for his airforce. Ug has sourced for Belarusian/Russian pilots for their MiGs
classified ops can be discuss at some length its not a bad idea.
all armed forces believe on themselves and feel convinced that they can out do their opponents. in this region I would say Kenya then Sudan in airforce and military as a whole subject.
The procurement of MD500 by Kenya government was a response to the flooding of soviet era tanks in this region.MD 500 is a lethal machine,as lethal as any big gunship that our opponents have but even more important is that its more maneouverable and cost less.It was designed as a tank killer for nations who didnt see the need for a large gunship but needed equal lethality at a reasonable price.The kenya tank killing ability therefore is unmatched given the gunships and experience our forces can boost.
Risasi,
Now that our gunship fleet is ageing what options does the Kanya Army have? I presume the Z-9’s are not replacements for the Mosquitoes coz in my limited knowledge of gunships, the don’t fulfill similar missions. Might the ACB possibly request for mordenised version of the cobra? The Viper? I like this machine because it is almost similar to the MD500 in behaviour with a much more serious punch.
Ageing kivipi jasiri air frame ama ? They were purchased back then but the equipment is not redundant. MD500 was used in the 1st and 2nd gulf wars and also when the Americans came for the Somalia,s in the 90’s. The type of war that was done in the gulf war i.e gunships paving the way for tanks and IFV in open countries has been in exercise with Kenya for the last 20 yre. our military exercise on such a tactic against rapid inflow of tanks attack.
The only equipments that we didn’t have were IFV and they have been procured. I believe we are up in standard.
http://breakingnews.newscred.com/articles/072a375bbb2a4a5a09507c51d3c4c119/jdw-21-jan-2010-kenya-confirms-receipt-of-chinese-attack-helicopters
I don,t think your familiar with the Z-9 when you ask if it’s a replacement of the MD500. Firstly it’s called the Z-9WA. The “WA” stands for the highest breed of the Z-9. Amour protected cockpit, data linked, Mast mounted sight/radar, all weather ,day and night attacking gunship.
it carries
HJ-8A ATGMs that can penetration almost 1meter thick amour skin. you will see them in action when china decide to take back Taiwan.
Maybe Z-10 will join in the future
how does it look like?
http://www.strategypage.com/military_photos/20090818122328.aspx
an article on the Z-9WA compared to Z-9’s its only Kenya and china that operate the “WA” models. what we have http://www.sinodefence.com/airforce/helicopter/z9w.asp
Thanks Risasi for the information.
From the order of battle in Wikipedia, i only see 5 MD 500s. What happened to the rest? I thought they are supposed to be 35 in number.
wiki is not reliable site, it can be edited by anybody from anywhere. I fact I differ with what it says on Tz arsenals. Check them out on more credible sites.
it seems we will be learning new tricks from the IDF. http://idfspokesperson.com/2010/03/25/commander-of-the-kenyan-military-visits-israel-25-mar-2010/
pictures of the first two Z-9WA in assembly http://china-defense.blogspot.com/2010/01/two-z9wa-attack-helicopters-delivered.html
i still don’t think it wise to replace the MD-500 with these. they seem less agile and the army has always moved in on agility.
Jasiri is spot on the MD500 should not be replaced. i think they are up for a mid life upgrade coz the airframe is still valid.the Z – 9 is a utility chopper the z – 9wa or WZ- 9 is the attack version of it. this chopper is a medium built workhorse of the skyies. i think the best way to deploy them is as a rapid deployment and rapid extraction air cav vehicle where the WZ – 9 comes in neutralizes any threats on the LZ and conducts reccon before the z – 9 lands troops on the area. this is ideal for dropping squal sized elements behind enemy lines for in and out missions. the Z – 9 can also act as frontline ressuply vehicle/ambulance sort of the way the US deployed the UH 60 in Nam. its agility or lack of thereof makes it unsuitable for frontline anti armour ops.the most impressiver thing bout it is that it can fire air – air missiles. my buddy on the 50th is yet to convey the specs of this missile and i still doubt we have it YET but ill do some snooping around and tell you what i can find out about this missile because i think it is a major threat against those Mil – 8 Hip choppers that seem to be the standard in the region.
jasiri and “D”
they are called DAP (Direct Air Penetrator) helicopters. search for the term in the internet you will get the concept. The Z-9 and the Z-9WA squadrons will be used just like the way the US military uses the UH-60 Black Hawk and its gunship version MH-60L. for such Ops you need aircrafts that can move at the same speed and range without straining each other by either trying to keepup in pace or slow down to wait for their teammates. The Z-9’s have high speed and ranges then the MD500.
the MH-60L and the Z-9WA have similar purpose ,roles and missions in the battlefield. This is a new tactic in progress. Do you get the picture?
Are the WZ-9 choppers a Chinese version of the As Cougar-french built. Also, that sight on the roof maybe a milimetric wave radar, like the Longbow on the Apache.The Md 530 defenders need to be replaced, although the TOW missiles are formidable.
the MD500 will still be operating its scout, recce and armor killing roles.
Perhaps in response to Kenyan acquisition of 35 APCs from China in 2007, Tanzania acquired 91 ACVs from South Africa in 2008. These were 85RG32M (scout ) and 6RG31. This is according to the United Nations register of conventional arms.
As can be seen no one is taking chances with security matters.Add these to the 6 MiG 29s and you will understand that there is indeed an arms race of some sort in this region.
risasi, the tactic of using the DAP is not new,the proper term is FIREFORCE,orient yourself with the operations of the Rhodesian Light Infantry in the 2nd Chimurenga war,this they accomplished using obsolete alouetteIIIs and they were very effective,same goes for the ops of 32 battalion of the old SADF in SWAfrica and Angola, the real originators of this tactic were the Portuguese and their Flechas before they gave up Angola. So you can be sure the Kenya army has had a long time to learn study and perfect the art of the FIREFORCE.
with the employment of this DAP or FIREFORCE technique i guess thiss effectivelly means that either Kenya is changing in response to new conflict scenarios or Kenya is changing the conflict scenario to suit it.
The later, Jasiri. Responding to changing scenarios, and updating our aggressor responses appropriately. Still work in progress, but we will get it right pretty soon. All assets in place, training, indoctrination, coordination, acceptance, etc. Looks great thus far.
The UN is winding down operations in DR Congo, although the SG recommends another year of presence there. Canada is in fact mulling over the idea of deployment, but they want a clear mandate first.
Plus, they just discovered more oil over there. I’ve heard reports that Africa as surpassed the Middle East as the single biggest source of crude to the US.
What happens to Congo post the UN presence? Should we expect the chaos to escalate into possible anarchy? Does the presence of the blue berets even have an impact on the situation there, or will it be business as usual?
as long as there are riches in the DR Congo and the world remains greedy there is always going to be anarchy. however i see a change towards low intensity conflicts rather that the all out pitched battles of before.the Congo Govt is getting stronger their army is still a bit rag tag but i think that is due to the large area they have to cover.remember this is a country without an effective police force to maintain law and order, there is virtually no intelligence network and the neighbours arent exactly helping the situation. a logistically sound force with strong clear mandate can do a better job that the UN.its a shame so much wealth yet the people are living in such horrid conditions.
It’s too bad Canada turned down the request (although their tour in Afghanistan ends next year).
Canada used to be at the forefront of peacekeeping – I wonder what happened.
The job that i missed
hey all …. im looking for a bit of insight on the central african region . first what if any are Kagames intentions with the kivus or the congo as a whole ? he seems to be coming into his own as an african strong man . with the guilt the international community seems to have from the genocide theres barely any criticism as far anything he has done since the genocide . for the military guys …. that region seems to be a theatre of operations for kenya’s special ops , is there a threat base here or is it just for intelligence ???? part of that questing coming from kagames hold over congo politics , his history with museveni and his ambitions for the whole region east and central africa .
The greatest threat to our eventual emancipation as a Nation is the continued drama in the Congo – of Corporate Rape of African couched in Ideology, which the West has used in Africa for fifty years. This is nowhere in our region exemplified as it is in the Great Lakes and Sudan, and hence our covert involvement in these two countries. Kenya needs to break the Great Lakes and East African from this syndrome, and engender an acceptance in which we shall see our African Survival as being dependant on intra-trade relations amongst ourselves, and adding value to our export to these same westerners. Kenya sees peace in this region as a primary ingredient to this resolution, and as long as Kagame is under the obligation of these Fellas it will be impossible to generate a critical mass to change this old matrix. So Kenya seeks to influence local situation in both Countries, by both benign persuasion and by means involving extreme prejudice that alter an local equation with terminal consequences and which then leads to either new beginnings or fresh positive faces. It is our own form of “ forward-defense” , and will eventually result in a critical mass gravitating around Kenya as to give impetus to break free – very much like the Chinese did in the early sixties with Mao. A bit Machiavelli, I expect you will say.
With the entry of Rwanda-Urundi into the EAC, Kagame sees an insulation for his murderous Tutsi Regime from deserved retribution in the changed demographies resultant, so that the history and problems of his Tutsi / Huti / Congo people will become inconsequential in the challenges and opportunities that will develop from entry into the EAC. And he will have succeeded in redefining once more the ruling class in Rwanda/Burundi/Eastern Congo after thrusting his Tutsi into the Fore by the violence of the Genocide!! Valid and already taking effect. What he also recognizes is that he will gradually loose relevance, and fade into the peripherals of leadership in East Africa as a dinosaurs whose time long expired. And so does Museveni, who was simply consequent to the Kagame exploits over the decade. Little price to pay.
Joseph Kabila aka “Hyppolite Kanambe” was installed ostensibly by M7 and Kagame under the poor pretext that he is the son of Laurent Kabila. In actual fact, Joseph Kabila is the nephew of the until-last week Chief of Staff of Rwandan Army, Mr. James Kabarebe, now the Defense Minister of Rwanda! So that, with the help of his corporate sponsors, PK is in effect the Commander-in-chief of DRC Army and King of the entire region into which Belgium colonial interest dispersed the Banyarwanda. His activities in this region however at the behest of these Western Corporate/Military Interests have resulted a conservative figure of 5.5 million innocent dead africans – excluding the tally from his latest jaunt into Congo of 2009 !! And not from communicable diseases, AIDs, hunger, crime, etc..!! Such is what holds back our emancipation, guys such as these who dehumanise their own people while they are glorified by their Western masters and deified by the gullible masses enslaved by the disinformation and propaganda churned out by the same people.
well well i personally love the soldiers and the work you do to our country.YOU ARE JUST THE BOMB AND KUDOS TO THAT.
hey guys been following your blog for a while and so far im getting a potrait of a united kenyan military. id just like tou guys to clarify some rumors for me about what happened within the army during the 2007 political crisis
1. some officers were not pleased with the election results and prevented the c in c from attending the swearing in ceremony.
2. the military was impartial but they did kill civilians in nakuru around free area and they have never been found thats why there were no cases of violence in the areas between nax and naivasha.
Bella, that is a croak of BS….. . Just for forms sake, let me educate you that there was not one single confrontation / incident involving the Military anywhere in Kenya during the PEV. And you bloody well know it. And it is not that the areas we deployed our chaps were without tension, friction or the risks of collapse of civil order. Hell, you must remember how Nakuru, Lanet, Emparuku, Gilgil , Naivasha, and Mai Mahiu seethed like a busaa-drum prior to our Deployment!! I was there, Bella!! Furthermore you are not asking queries to invite discussion – no no, you are stating an “incontrovertible fact” in the manner typical of an ill-informed noisy activist, the sort that nearly drove this country to the dogs with their jabbering in 2005-7. Shouting your half-truths from the roof tops to your paid media predominantly manned by idling Caucasian journalists perpetually seeking the worst in the African. I doubt anyone on this blog has time to dwell on idle gossip and political rumor-mongering. Here, even posts that may be based on speculation / conjecture are well thought-out and presented – they invite discussion and are just as equally responded to educate. You want to bash the Uniforms, as is the wont of busy-body so-called ‘human right activist’, you go ahead, but please don’t invite me. Do you get the feeling, reading through this blog, that what the alleged dastardly behavior you paint here typifies your average uniformed person in Kenya’s Military? C’mon, give us a break, Bella!!
Let’s talk water security. Egypt and Sudan have refused to re-negotiate the Nile water treaties. The rest of Eastern Africa is going ahead with a unilateral framework.
What does this mean in terms of regional security?
Some Ugandan military brass let it slip the other day that, the Russian jets they bought are a sort of deterrence measure from a possible fall-out from this Nile water disagreement.
I don’t see the dispute going military any time soon, however, Egyptian legislators have made it clear that the Nile is a national security issue they are willing to ‘defend’ (whatever that means).
What’s Kenya’s position?
The only plausible solution for Egypt is to negotiate and make the countries upstream to see her point of argument and the precarious nature of her dependence on the Nile waters.
Populations are increasing which need to be fed.Equitable sharing of the Nile resources without endangering Egypt’s survival is the way forward and i think this is what the Nile basin countries are saying. Egypt’s continued reluctance to negotiate is actually the real bottleneck here. They have historically had the lion share of the resource to themselves as a result of a flawed colonial era treaty. In this era of population explosion, this state of affairs cannot continue and we all need to agree on the way forward(Egypt included). Any chest thumping on account of perceived military superiority will become a cropper with untold consequences to the Egyptian public. How does Egypt hope to win a military confrontation against 9 Nile basin countries with a combined population of more than 270 million people?
While i’ am cognizant of the fact that Egypt has one of the largest, well trained, well equipped and most powerful military force in Africa, i nevertheless don’t believe this force will be adequate to bully the entire Nile basin region into submission.
Mwistar,Kenya’s position is in line with the other Nile basin countries and has been stated as such. We expect that the country will soon append her signature alongside those of Uganda, Tanzania,Rwanda and Ethiopia while similarly expecting Burundi,DRC and much later S.Sudan to do so.
Egypt receives yearly, as part of their Camp David inducement to sign a Peace Treaty with Israel ( the first Arab Nation to do), a princely USD1Billlion in Military Aid and probably an equal amount in Direct Budgetary Support from the USA. ERGO, they are a client/servant state serving US interests in Africa and the Arab Countries. Their Arab affairs Foreign policy has been at most utterly ambivalent and verging on a betrayal of Arab / African interests. Over the last thirty years, the Americans have weaned Egypt away from Africa with deliberate and concerted machinations that falsely create in the Egyptian psyche European pretensions to the extent that they consider themselves more European than African. And what has the West gained from this ludicrous pantomime in terms of African egress? Well, Egypt has been the staging ground for European Industries that produce quotas and fill them up with European-produced goods, which Egypt then sells to gullible Africans as goods manufactured in Egypt. In essence, therefore, Egypt continues the European Rape of African by proxy, but this time without guilt since Egypt does not consider itself African. Egypt buys our tea at preferential prices, and repackages it and sells it to Europe at astronomically obscene profit. Conversely, Egypt exports Belgium Beet-root sugar into Africa without hindrance claiming to be a net producer of sugar which we all know is blatantly false. That is the general tread of trade. In exchange, the West keeps all dissent down in Egypt, and a stalinistic leadership that now seeks to perpetuate itself to Mubarak’s son without a whimper from the West. Of course democracy in Egypt has never been a Western Agenda, neither has the brutally despotic and repressive autocracy of Mubarak ever mentioned both in western governments and their media. But there lies Egypt’s main weakness, and the reason that she has not used her reputed military might substantively since her rout by Israel in the Yom Kippur war of 1973 – apart from the fractious exchange with Libya in the Eighties in which her nose was well bloodied. It is that to fight a modern was, you must first capture the National Conscience of your people who will bear the blunt in war-dead and in financing the war. Autocracies cannot win any wars, in truth wars weaken their hold on their people by denting their cloak of invincibility and fracturing their monopoly to violence through which they rule. That Egypt appears reluctant to negotiate a new Nile Waters Treaty fools not, it is simply that Egypt had no position to take, no proposal to make, no game-plan, no fall-back point. Her autocracy are caught between the proverbial rock and stone – an inability to hold their power if any change in the status quo should upset the social balance they have maintained, and the clear understanding the enforcing their “rights” by military means will almost certainly be the end of their autocracy(if not definite military humiliation. Their only fallback point was hope that their western handlers would use their economic and financial might to bully the rest of the Nile state to rest-the-status-quo-be – which they have tried but failed in the face of the buoyant and extensive Chinese egress into African with it’s attendant changes of the political-economic dynamics. So I think Egypt will take whatever the rest of us give them, basing of course on what Olekoima justifiable says is equity that takes into consideration of the interests of all including the Egyptians. Sorry for being so long in-the-tooth!
Thanks for the comments guys.
I intended to follow up with a question addressing why the EU and to some extent, North American govts support the current Nile treaties (albeit cautiously). However, both your answers give me enough direction to dig for further insights.
On a different note, I came across a few media reports suggesting that Hizbul Islam in Somalia has split – thanks to one faction signing an agreement with Kenya and the Transitional Govt there.
As a novice in theatres of war, I automatically assume that a fractured enemy is weaker and therefore (somewhat) easier to defeat. However, does this new development in any way strengthen al Shabaab’s position? Or, is that rebel group’s position unchanged, or even weakened by Hizbul splitting?
What now for Egypt. Kenya has become the latest country to sign the CFA on the Nile waters with Burundi and DRC expected to follow suit shortly. Will the Egyptians then order a military strike? They have threatened this action before,but is it workable? I highly doubt. Egypt is really operating from a point of weakness right now. However it is not too late for them to swallow their pride and perceived superiority complex and hit the negotiation table right away.What do others say?
DRC was supposed to sign the treaty today (20th).
Egypt has been lobbying EU fiercely, especially Italy – which is supposed to be building a series of hydro-elec dams in Ethiopia.
I’ve also read statements by Egyptian parliamentarians who continue to argue that the new treaty is not legally binding. But, I don’t see how they can enforce anything, even if they win a verdict in international courts.
In the end, Egypt is really at the mercy of the upstream countries. Although Sudan has supported Egypt’s position, they have too many domestic issues to worry about. Plus, it doesn’t help that Eritrea recently voiced support for Egypt (more than likely to irk Addis). Who really wants Eritrea supporting their cause?
Yes, it is one thing to lobby for international support, but completely a different thing to selfishly enforce the same on other countries especially those grappling with pangs of hunger as a result of climate change.Indeed the international community must also listen to the concerns of these other countries. It is unfair for Egypt and Sudan to be allocated virtually all the water at the expense of our starving citizens.
If Egypt is not on board on this treaty, then the other countries( except Arab Sudan and perhaps Eritrea) will ignore all else and move on. The era of dictating to others and even threatening military action is long gone.
I am an avid military buff – lived near MAB and by age 13 could tell all the different sounds of our warbirds and even the dark visiting ones such as the C-130 Hercules,etc! – and am vry happy about to read what our men in uniform are doing to ensure the country is safe.
I have been following this site for quite sometime and find it very informative – exactly what I have been looking for all along to supplement my collections of Jane’s Defense, defense mags and other military info sources.
But I still share Olekoima’s unease that our neighbours have 4th gen fighters ( Tz Mig-29 Fulcrums and that our restive eastern neighbour will be getting some advanced Sukhois, Sudan,Ethiopia have advanced fighters too), despite the assurances here that the F-5s will be sufficient defense for us. I still very strongly feel we have little option but to hit the 4th gen highway…what we can argue about is the time-frame, say a 3-5-yr modernization plan and a good defense allocation in our budget would do the trick. But go that way we must, I feel, to match the awesome firepower around us. Because deterrence is a good military strategy too, and costs much cheaper, both in financial and time factor costs (affords the country time to build up a well-equipped and technologically force).
On a different topic I was shocked to see on Al Jazeera that Myanmar – a dirt poor country – was seeking to join the nuke club!
Okay okay, so I understand nukes are the ultimate insurance against military hostilities being visited on you (Israel is a moot point), but a country like Myanmar?! Now that was a bombshell of nuclear proportions, pun intended!
But is also raises a very impt question: how many such countries – sneaky signatories or not to NPT-harbour and actually have active nuke programs on-going? Even U.S or any other intell outfit didn’t pick it up and in fact one key US officials was enroute to Myanmar when the bombshell was dropped!
A growing nuke club is bad is really bad bad news for the world because it actually increases the possibility of deployment of nukes in any hostilities
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LF05Ae01.html
Another thing – while the war drills in our defense schools would show kenya triumphant in a hypothetical war scenario with some of our neighbours, one can’t help but wonder, don’t the war scenarios in THEIR defense schools similarly show the same verdict, that they would be in Nbi within days, if not hours!?
Who’s following who – are we fooling outselves or are they fooling themselves?! Or are we all fooling ourselves?! Just a thought.
[b]TANZANIA[/b]
BM-21 9K51 GRAD (Multiple rocket launcher) 48
BRDM-2 (Reconnaissance Vehicle) 40
BTR-152 (Wheeled armoured personnel carrier) 66
FV101 Scorpion (Reconnaissance Vehicle) 40
Mk 1 (Main battle tank) 10
Type 59 (Main battle tank) 45
Type 62/WZ132 (Light tank) 30
YW 531 – Type 63 (Tracked armoured personnel carrier) 30
[b]Towed field artillery guns-285[/b]
82 and 120 mm mortars-150
[b]KENYA[/b]
UR-416 M (Wheeled armoured personnel carrier) 52
BTR-60 (Wheeled armoured personnel carrier) 3
M3 (Wheeled armoured personnel carrier) 10
SARACEN (Infantry fighting vehicle/APC) 5
*30 Chinese-built WZ 551 APCs delivered in 2007
AML 60/90 (Reconnaissance Vehicle/AFV) 72
Ferret Mk 1/1 (Reconnaissance Vehicle/AFV) 12
SALADIN (Reconnaissance Vehicle/AFV) 3
Shorland S52 (Reconnaissance Vehicle/AFV) 8
BMD (Reconnaissance Vehicle/AFV) 85
Vickers Mk 3 (Main battle tank) 78
105MM ARTILLERY-
L5 Pack howitzer- 48
RO L118 Light Gun -40
[b]UGANDA[/b]
BMP-2 (Infantry fighting vehicle) 31
BTR-40 (Wheeled armoured personnel carrier/APC) 20
Casspir (Wheeled armoured personnel carrier/APC) 70
OT-64 (Wheeled armoured personnel carrier/APC) 4
76MM ARTILLERY- M-1942 towed gun 60
122MM ARTILLERY- M-1938 towed gun 20
130 MM ARTILLERY- M-46 towed gun 12
155MM ARTILLERY- SOLTAM M-114 (Towed howitzer) 20
PT-76 (Light tank) 20
T-54/55 (Main battle tank) 100
[b]RWANDA[/b]
T-54/55 -12
Armoured fighting vehicles-110
Armored troop carriers- 50
122 mm MLRS- 5
105mm, 122 mm and 130mm towed artillery- 41
81 and 120 mm mortars – 250
Sub-machine guns and antiaircraft guns- 150
(14.5, 23 and 37 mm)
READ my offering about African Armed Forces here.
VISIT my own blog too, guys.
http://www.beegeagle.wordpress.com
BTW, I am a Nigerian who is highly interested in Defence and Strategic Studies. LIVELY animated discussion going on here. LOVING it…so many insightful guys.
LOOK UP IMAGES and REPORTS of/on the NIGERIAN ARMED FORCES HERE
FOTORAMA: THE NIGERIAN ARMED FORCES
http://forum.cybereagles.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=140686&p=2731107#p2731107
AFRICAN ARMED FORCES
http://forum.cybereagles.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=140686&start=1265
BEEG EAGLE,
Thank you for your posts.
However, what you have shown in your post above as the entire arsenal for Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and even Rwanda is incomplete. At best this is old stuff of early 1990s. There is a lot more to these. For instance, Uganda also possess T-62s same as Tanzania while Kenya has T-72s as well.
Besides you have not shown any thing for the airforce and Navy.
wachana naye
Trust me, those details emanate from having kept a KEEN eye on trusted websites such as “JANE’S”, SIPRI, IISS and of course, the UN Register of Conventional Arms Transfers.
Believe me, everything points to the fact that all the CHINESE origin which have been imported by Kenya decidely belong to the Kenya Armed Forces. These include the Z9-WA and the WMZ-551APCs. The Serbian-made NORA 155mm SP arty also belong to Kenya for sure.
However, it appears (based on my web searches) that ALL of the Soviet-derived weapons systems such as the BM-21MRLS, the 203mm SP Arty, the T72s and the BMP-series IFVs belong to the Government of South Sudan.
For emphasis, that is the precise reason why the Khartoum government has since March 2010 been taking delivery of a consignment of 100 T72M tanks. In like manner, South Sudan placed orders for the Pion SP arty as its best response to the Khartoum regime acquisition of WS-2 rocket artillery systems.
ive been AWOL from this blog for too long, i didnt know there was this much action on this side too. nice to see a lady who appreciates all our blood sweat and tears. thanks for that Vincy. Beeg Eagle your post falls a little short especially on the Kenyan side of things. This is more like it:
Kenya Army Organization structure: 2 armored brigades, 4 infantry brigade, 1 ranger battalion, 1 engineer brigade i armored recce bttln, 3 arttie bttlns, 1 air cav bttln, 3 engineer bttlns, 4 infantry bttlns, 1 para bttln,
Armour 110 T-72, 76 Vickers MK 3 Panhard AML 72 No Light Armored vehicle, Ferret Scout car, BRM, BTR 60, WZ 551, UR 416 APCs. Assorted Heavy lift and logistics vehicles, BM 21 Grad, S27 Pion Nora B -52 SP Arttie, L118 Gun, Mod 56 arttie, Milan, Swingfire AT Missiles. Carl Gustav reccoiles Rifle.
In addition Kenya maintains 20,000+ AP Paramilitary force and 10,000+ GSU Paramilitary. You have most of the numbers right on WZ 551s APCs are still being delivered so the final number is still yet to be determined, you will probably not hear this anywhere else but there are also a number of Hrisantema tank killers in store.
This is just the army side, the airforce has been undergoing extensive expansion and modernization most of which is still unreported in outside sources.
D, which T-72’s exactly? I hope they are the true ex-Read Army T-72B, not some “monkey model”.
The Ukrainians are very tricky people. Some of your neighbours have ended up with freshly painted junk when they tried to buy from them.
And FYI, Ukrainians don’t produce parts like stabilizers and fire control equipment for these tanks. So when you come to the Russians to buy parts for Ukrainian-supplied tanks, Rosoboronexport will rape you every possible way.
Did you mean “BRDM-2” rather than BRM? A nice looking light armored vehicle, but a real fuel guzzler (has a PETROL engine), little firepower, little protection, and no side/rear hatches.
BTR-60 has TWO petrol engines, very inconvenient hatches, and again little firepower and little protection. Can be made better with a 1 x diesel engine conversion, and a combination of applique armor / counter-cumulative screens.
Little can be done about the hatches, though, as both these vehicles were rather designed for CBRN environment than for direct contact with the enemy.
Which WZ551? Is it Type 92? With no mobility limitations of Type 90.
As for Pion and Nora, the only thing I can say is WOW.
Thanks for your questions, observations and comments. Let me try to clarify issues to the best of my abilities.
First of all i am not very conversant with the monkey models you allude to. But the tanks in our stores are the T-72 AV variant. they retain the original hull design and engine of the mother T-72s ours have 2 fundamental differences, first is the laser range finder installed post acquisition and the Kontakt explosive reactive armours at the front and rear of the tank. Dont believe all the nonsense about these beasts being owned by S. Sudan. Thats western propaganda someone was pissed we didnt maintain British tanks in our armory.
I was not wrong when i said BRM instead of the BRDM 2. These are 2 different combat vehicles with the BRM better suited for reccon roles and the BRDM 2 is amphibious and suited for troop transportation. The BRM is a late variant of the BMP 1, which also had the limitations you have mentioned it solves most problems which you speak about save for the fuel thirst.
I totally agree with you on the BTR 60 no modifications have been made on the ones we own, at least none that i know of.
On the WZ551 what we have is the 6×6 unarmed APC version. No mobility problems there. Word is there are plans to make some armed 8×8 version of the same vehicle. This was given as the reason for cancellation of the originally planned numbers as DOD is waiting for completion of these.
Mugwiira,
So far only three countries operate the Nora B-52. These are Serbia ( 35 ), Myanmar ( 36 ) and Kenya ( 20 ).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nora_B-52
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/257_Pion
That’s why I said I was very impressed. Especially with Pion.
D
men cool it down,kenya doen’t have Hrisantema tanks u talk about.
its the first time am coming across this.
on another blog there is a guy who disputes whether or not we have certain aerial capabilities just because he has not seen a link on the net. I would not want to get into the same situation with this issue. there are lots of things going on in the forces that is not in the public domain. The fact that no one has heard of it doesn’t mean its not happening. For example plans are underway for phasing out the G3 rifle as the main battle rifle. You wont hear this anywhere else either. Give it some time, just like the T – 72 saga soon this will come to be known as true.
Tororo,
I have listened with much amusement to all the rhetoric which you have thus far put out here. Like M7 who never fails to talk about having the best army in Africa, you are again making allusions to the fact that his son Muhoozi
(Fort Leavenworth and Sandhurst-trained, you said)will ensure that Uganda has the most elite Special Forces unit in Africa.
But do you realise what Uganda’s real constraints are…looking at things from a 360 degree perspective? For every 10 Special Forces troops which Uganda manages to train ANYWHERE, there are more than TEN African countries which can afford to train 1,000 in Israel, the UK, USa and China! You have been going on and on about the USa training the UPDF. Do you know that in some parts of mama Africa, the US, French, British and Israeli forces are in on training missions practically every month? I hate to imagine that you are constrained in your ability to see things as they are.
Listen then. Even when Uganda’s oil starts to flow, IT WILL NOT add anything more than an extra US$1bn to the national till. Currently, the Ugandan Govt probably earns no more than US$2bn annually and is 30% dependent on foreign grants-in-aid to support its budget.
How on earth do you imagine that Kenya, which earns over US$10bn annually will be found wanting in an arms race against Uganda? Are you deluded or overly patriotic to the point of folly?
There are several adjuncts to military power and these include economics, geography, training,deployment, morale,logistics, equipment, combat experience and POPULATION. Frankly and beyond combat experience, how does Uganda rate against Kenya if all these parameters are used as yardsticks? Very low indeed. How do you think Uganda would rank against countries such as Egypt, South Africa,Nigeria and Algeria all of which boats economies which are 20-30 times larger than Uganda’s and EACH of which generate revenues in excess of US50bn annually and which have substantial industrial bases? Uganda can sustain an arms race against ANY those or you think weaponry is on offer for free?
You talk about Fort leavenworth and Sandhurst. Hmn, let me say as a Nigerian that the first Nigerian officer at Sandhurst got there in 1950. Kenya’s General Daniel Opnade was at Sandhurst as long ago as 1964. So what is new? The UPDF is really far behind. Wake UP!
You have talked about how the UPDF and the RPa marched across the jungles of the Congo, albeit directed, tarined and abetted by the USA. Well, the Zairean Army of the 1990s was a hungry, mutinous, prostrate and demoralized army. things were so bad that early in 1997, Mobutu himself had to pay for a shipment of a mere 20 used Mercedes trucks from his own pocket. That was how bad things were at the time – 1996-97.
Come 1999 and with sterner Zimbabwean and Angolan forces active on the side of the DRC govt., you wanna tell us why the the UPDF and RPA were unable to get past the strongholds of Kisangani and Goma respectively? Do you know what happened when Kabarebe led a posse of Ugandan and Rwandan troops to launch an expedition against Kinshasa? They were chased back by the Zimbos and later fled an armoured assault by Angola spearheaded by 27 armoured vehicles. Check you facts.
SO do not be so carried away by the UPDF’s exploits against Karimojong cattle rustlers and panga-wielding LRA miscreants. The REAL test of the UPDF is yet to come. Remember that Amin was also very flippant about the worth of his army until they met their nemesis at the hands of Nyerere’s troops which cut through Uganda from south to north as the crow flies.
You berra wake up, friend.
Your Comrade-in-Arms,
BEEG EAGLE (cybergeneral)
LAGOS, Nigeria.
http://www.militaryhistoryonline.com/20thcentury/articles/kitona.aspx
The Kitona Operation: Rwanda’s African Odyssey
by Comer Plummer
While the African Continent has seen no shortage of war in our time, few of these conflicts produced campaigns or battles worthy of study. One exception emerged from the war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, formerly Zaire, which lasted from 1998 to 2001. This conflict, which has been called Africa’s World War, came to directly involve nine African countries. This war was remarkable in many respects, not the least of which was its opening phase that featured a long range aerial insertion of ground troops behind enemy lines, with the aim of achieving a quick knockout victory. This was an operation that exemplified audacity and courage, and its aftermath became an odyssey fit for a Hollywood script.
This conflict had its origins in the 1996-7 ‘war of liberation’ in Zaire, during which an alliance of Congolese rebels and foreign forces overthrew the country’s dying despot, Mobutu Sese Seko. While the liberation theme was pushed for public consumption, the underlying causes of the war involved efforts by the regimes of Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi to defeat domestic opposition groups operating from eastern Zaire. Rwanda, with the most serious crisis, was at the center of this effort.[1]
Rwanda sank into a period of civil war in 1994, during which Hutu and Tutsi tribes engaged in a horrific genocide that took the lives of up to 800,000 people. Hundreds of thousands of Rwandans fled to refugee camps in eastern Zaire, among them many Hutu soldiers and militiamen who took part in the massacres. These groups used the camps to reorganize and resume their attacks into Rwanda.[2] By 1996, when Mobutu’s decaying state was unable to deal with the crisis, Kigali’s Tutsi-dominated government determined to solve the problem with its small, but highly disciplined army.
Plucking a rotund, aging Congolese Marxist revolutionary, Laurent-Desiré Kabila, from a comfortable East African exile, the Rwandans set him at the head of an army of liberation consisting of Rwandan ‘advisors’, Zairean dissidents and military deserters, and child soldiers. With Ugandan and Burundian assistance, the alliance swept to power in May of 1997. Kabila set about remaking the country. One of his first acts was to change the country’s name back to its pre-Mobutu appellation of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. For more than a year, Kabila and his Rwandan allies co-existed in power. The Rwandans occupied many key posts in Kabila’s government and the new Congolese Army (FAC).
One of the central figures in the conflict in the Congo was a Rwandan Colonel, James Kabare (also spelled Kabarebe). Kabare, a Tutsi, was born in Rutshuru in eastern Congo in 1959. A long time confidant and aide to Rwandan President Paul Kagame, he came to play a key role in Rwandan foreign affairs. During Kabila’s march across Congo in 1996-7, Kabare served as the rebel leader’s Chief of Operations. Kabila later appointed Kabare to be interim Chief of Staff of the FAC. Kabare, wiry and intense, was hard liner with a ‘never again’ determination to defend Kagame’s regime. An ardent soldier, he claimed to have participated in hundreds of combat operations.[3]
Laurent Kabila was not the puppet the Rwandans expected. He came to resent their control and feared Kigali planned his overthrow. Abruptly, on July 13, 1998, Kabila replaced Kabare as his military Chief of Staff. Two weeks later, he ordered all Rwandan troops to depart the Congo.[4] He then rounded up all ‘counter-revolutionaries’, including Congolese Tutsis (called, Banyamulenge), which he suspect of being pro-Rwandan.
Congo’s king-makers were not so easily dismissed. They decided to replace Kabila. On August 2, 1998, Congolese military units mutinied in Goma, near Congo’s eastern frontier with Rwanda. Soldiers belonging to a new Rwanda-backed rebel group took over a local radio station and announced a revolt to oust Kabila. On cue, Rwandan Patriotic Army (RPA) forces steamed across the border into Goma and Bukavu. As these events unfolded, in Kinshasa several hundred Rwandan soldiers who had evaded Kabila’s repatriation order, and supported by Banyamulenge fighters, attacked FAC army bases. FAC units suppressed these attacks, but were quickly overwhelmed in the east. Within days, the RPA controlled Congo’s eastern border from Bukavu to Uvira and was moving deep into the Kivu provinces. In northeastern Congo, Ugandan Army (UPDF) forces invaded Ituri District and began their drive for Kisangani – Congo’s commercial hub on the upper Congo River.[5]
Laurent Kabila did not panic. The sheer size of his country, the nature of the terrain, and the lack of trafficable roads would doubtless slow the enemy. The year before, it had taken his forces months to march across Congo, and in the face of little resistance. Surely, he would have the time to assemble forces and international support to stem the tide.
The Rwandans and their Ugandan allies would deny him that luxury. They realized that they needed a quick blow to hasten the end of this war. They had little regard for Congolese forces, but feared a long campaign and the grueling march across the tangled terrain of dense forests, marshes, and innumerable rivers of the Congo River basin. Plus, a quick strike would minimize international condemnation and the risk of drawing neighboring countries into the fight.
The Rwandans conceived a bold plan: As the offensive in the east developed, they would airlift a contingent of troops 1,500 kilometers across the Congo basin to Kitona air base, located 320 kilometers west of Kinshasa near the Atlantic coast. From there, the contingent would march east, capturing key infrastructure, and attack Kinshasa from the rear. Along the way, they hoped to augment their numbers with Congolese deserters and dissidents, and by liberating Banyamulenge rounded up by Kabila. A Rwandan ‘fifth column’ was already at work in the ghettos of Kinshasa, distributing arms and bribing indigent youths to act as guides within the city.[6] The Rwandans hoped to generate a popular revolt against the Kabila regime. Failing that, at the very least they would sow chaos.
The Rwandan plan targeted Congo’s economic umbilical, the Bas Congo province. Located west of Kinshasa, this province formed the finger of land that linked Congo’s vast interior with its tiny, 43-km coastline. While Congo’s smallest province, it strategically the most important, containing its only known oil reserves and its primary source of electrical power, the Inga dam complex. This latter facility powered much of Congo, from Kinshasa to the mining cities of Katanga province, 1,700 kilometers distant. Congo’s only oceanic ports were there, including the port of Matadi, and an oil pipeline and rail line linking Kinshasa to the ocean.[7]
It was an audacious plan, and one fraught with risk. This small force would be required to push across more than 300 kilometers of difficult terrain, seizing several intermediate objectives along the march, at the end of which it would attempt to invest and occupy a city of some 6 million people. The logistics of the operation would depend on a long, tenuous air bridge. The Rwandans did not fear privations or their adversary. They counted on the psychological impact of the operation. Surprise, and their network of agents in Kinshasa, would ensure panic and the collapse of any organized resistance.
If the Rwandans feared anything, it was Angola. Geography loomed over the Kitona operation. The Angolan frontier lay just south of the air base; to the immediate north was the Angolan enclave of Cabinda. Angola had already shown itself willing to act unilaterally to stabilize the region. The year before, the Angolan Army had intervened to end a civil war in Congo-Brazzaville and its troops were stationed in that country. Moreover, the Angolan Army was a formidable force. Its 112,000 soldiers outnumbered the combined forces of Rwanda, Uganda, and the Congolese rebels.[8] Angolan soldiers were hardened by more than two decades of civil war. In short, the entire adventure depended on Angolan neutrality.
On August 3, as RPA units were still consolidating their foothold in eastern Congo, Rwandan forces under the personal command of Colonel Kabare, now Rwandan Army Deputy Chief of Staff, commandeered three civilian airliners at Goma’s airport. The following day, he embarked 500 Rwandan soldiers and a Ugandan artillery unit and headed for Kitona.
The contingent landed at Kitona air base on the morning of August 4, 1998. The defenders offered little resistance. Most were ex-Zairean soldiers who had been sent there for re-training. Unpaid for several weeks, the sight of bundles of U.S. dollars the Rwandans brought drew many to the ranks of the contingent. The Rwandans captured nearby Muanda and Congo’s petroleum operations. In subsequent days, additional flights from Goma and Kigali brought another 3,000 RPA and Congolese rebel soldiers. The contingent began its march east. Boma and Buama fell in rapid succession. By August 13, the invaders had captured Matadi and the Inga damn complex, the last of their intermediate objectives, and stood halfway to their prize. The Rwandans ordered Inga’s turbines shut down, plunging Kinshasa and much of Congo into darkness.[9]
Laurent Kabila moved to his provincial refuge at Lubumbashi, where he worked feverishly to assemble support for his tottering regime. He lobbied the Southern African Development Community (SADC) for military assistance. On August 17, three key members of that body – Zimbabwe, Angola, and Namibia – gave him their support. Zimbabwean troops began to arrive in Kinshasa shortly thereafter. Angola remained on the sidelines. South African President Nelson Mandela, then also SADC President, called an emergency meeting of its members for August 22.
The contingent marched on, silently now, for resistance had dissolved. Villages emptied before them. Weapons shouldered, the soldiers filed along the undulating banks of the Congo River, moving ever closer to Kinshasa and the gray waters of the Stanley Pool. Panic engulfed the city, as thousands tried to flee across the river to Brazzaville. The government closed the ferry and people retreated to the ghettos. Diplomats and foreign workers flooded the airport. On August 22, the day the summit was schedule to occur, the Rwandans and their allies were 30 kilometers west of Kinshasa. In the east, Rwanda and Ugandan forces were more than 150 kilometers inside Congo and pushing west under little resistance.[10] It was a race against time, and the Rwandans appeared to be winning.
Then, it all fell apart. Mandela’s summit failed to come together. Despite his efforts, Angola and Namibia were preparing to intervene in the war. On 23 August, Angolan President José Eduardo Dos Santos announced that his troops would defend Kinshasa. They had in fact already entered Congolese territory. That day, 2,500 Angolan troops, supported by tanks and fighter aircraft, attacked the Rwandan rear base at Kitona. Overwhelmed, the Rwandans rear guard dispersed. Feeling somewhat reassured, Kabila returned to Kinshasa. The hunter now became the hunted. Their line of retreat severed, Colonel Kabare and his commanders had little choice but to press on to Kinshasa. Two days later the contingent began working its way into the hills that surrounded the capital.
The fight for Kinshasa began in the early morning hours of August 26, 1998. It lasted for three days. The Rwandans surrounded the city and infiltrated key areas, probing for weaknesses. Their attacks were concentrated against the Kasangulu township at western approach to Kinshasa and N’djili airport in the east. These efforts failed, largely due to the stout resistance of Zimbabwean troops. The Rwandans also failed to generate a popular rising in the urban quarters. Rumors of a Tutsi uprising launched a spontaneous vigilante hunt for Banyamulenge and collaborators. In those frenzied days, dozens were lynched and the streets smoked with the charred bodies of those burned alive.[11]
The Rwandans and their allies pulled back into the hills, where they regrouped and took stock of their plight. They were dangerously short of supplies, their line of retreat was cut, and they were more than a thousand kilometers inside hostile country. FAC and Angolan troops were converging on them from east and west. One by one, they recaptured Muanda, Boma, Inga, Buama, and Matadi. The contingent had only one choice – exfiltration. But from where? The nearest airfield was north, across the Congo River in Congo-Brazzaville. This was not a viable option, given the lack of barges and that country’s alignment with Angola. Looking over a map, Kabare spotted a small regional airport across the Angolan border at Maquela do Zombo. UNITA rebels roamed this area during the Angolan Civil War and it remained largely uncontrolled by Luanda.
As the main body hunkered down and licked its wounds, the Rwandans hastened a reconnaissance team to Maquela do Zombo to determine the suitability of the airport. The team returned a week later, haggard and parched by the height of the African summer. The news was not good: The airport was occupied by 400 Angolan troops. Undeterred, the Rwandans began to plan for an attack on the airport.
In mid-September 1998, Colonel Kabare was ready to make his move. Leaving behind the sick and wounded, he took the contingent across the border and marched on Maquela do Zombo. Arriving several days later, they launched a night attack that surprised and routed the defenders. Over the following days, Kabare had the sick and wounded brought to the new camp, while his forces prepared defenses around the airport. Inspecting their prize, they found that the runway would need improvements. They would need to extend the length of the runway from 1,400 to 1,800 meters to allow for larger cargo planes to land. Runway lights would be required for a night time evacuation. Kabare realized he would need time. He pushed forward their defenses and blocked the only access road 100 kilometers from town.
For nearly two months the contingent held the airport against encroaching Angolan forces. They repelled several Angolan attacks, including one spearheaded by 26 armored vehicles. Small supply flights arrived from Rwanda, bringing the tools and generators that enabled them to add extend the runway and add lights. With the runway ready, aircraft began arriving to evacuate the contingent to Kigali. Over the next few days, the Rwandans made more than 30 flights out of Maquela do Zombo. Kabare later remarked, “As we emptied the airport, we fell back from the perimeters. On the last day, our defenses were just a few kilometers from the airport.” On the final night of the operation, the Rwandan rear guard and the commanders made a dash for the last plane as the Angolans closed in.
By Christmas Day, 1998, the last elements of the contingent returned home. Thirty-one soldiers of the Ugandan artillery unit, healthy and smiling, debarked to a heroes’ welcome at Kampala. Major General Afande Saleh, the Ugandan Minister of Defense, was on hand to greet them. Kabare later noted with satisfaction, “We handed them all in good health to Afande Saleh.” He paused, allowing himself a rare degree of sentiment, “They were all really good boys, some of the best.”
The intervention of SADC forces saved Kabila’s regime. After the Rwandans were turned back at Kinshasa, the war in the Congo settled into a stalemate that lasted more than two years. In January, 2001, a bodyguard assassinated Laurent Kabila and his son, Joseph Kabila, replaced him. By then, war fatigue chased off many of the belligerents, and those few remaining bowed to pressure to end a conflict that had become increasingly indefensible and unpopular. Congolese government and rebel leaders signed a peace agreement and formed a transitional government. In 2006 Congolese went to the polls in the country’s first free elections in 40 years and elected Joseph Kabila president of a unified Congo.
THANKS EAGLE
READ THESE:
http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:neccWeCOoCQJ:www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/pdfs/HSBA-SWP-18-Sudan-Post-CPA-Arms-Flows.pdf+WHO+OWNS+THE+T72+tanks+imported+by+Kenya&hl=en&gl=ng&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEEShsJpfcnLsEZt4frPuhnmoUFKN3uOoWI4HU8dJn7pun5Rjut43jFmQvykUoBBRDxGmDQJUqsVI59hS0jPnrgeOVlzqGEcTU4HRMPIQKNhMGwH7IKgnLzqW0m8g1o71f5XGgPxMA&sig=AHIEtbSLfMBs1IvRNGUQt2gVUNtxS4hJ-g
http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:gENjSR4ysCUJ:www.idsa.in/system/files/jds_3_4_sarya.pdf+WHO+OWNS+THE+T72+tanks+imported+by+Kenya&hl=en&gl=ng&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESi-b6TYWOx1LDxwngaECw7dgRcqXkSRBWRMp_qF0OaDfwiAgyO8nE_tYcXp-Mx23iW0nNh05cQ83sAUrEhF8jT3TReq3pFWqSSVuznGhrmRTnwthnnG64YawDxgxJZyc7HtB_ny&sig=AHIEtbQvzrJJKQIWVodUYLq4DnWDdfyAvg
No training on use of Ukrainian and Russian tanks: SPLA spokesman
Thursday 3 September 2009 printSend this article by mail Send
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32328
September 2, 2009 (RUMBEK) — The Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) spokesman Maj. Gen. Kuol Diem Kuol denied that the SPLA has brought Kenyan military officers to Sudan for the purpose of training in the use of newly imported T-72 battle tanks.
Kuol denied recent media suggestions that the SPLA is being trained by Kenyan experts on the use of Ukrainian and Russians tanks. He told Sudan Tribune by phone from Juba that a report carried in the online daily on Monday is false.
The Nairobi Star in a report published last week — and cited by Sudan Tribune on Monday — said almost 300 Kenyan military officers were being dispatched to South Sudan to train the SPLA in the use of their newly acquired military equipment including an estimated 100 T-72s main battle tanks.
SPLA’s alleged involvement in a major arms deal for the tanks and other heavy weapons came to light when the Ukrainian-owned ship MV Faina was hijacked by pirates off the coast of Somalia in September 2008. There were 33 T-72 tanks on board the MV Faina, reportedly the last batch of a series of shipments made through Kenya since at least as early as 2007.
Kuol Diem Kuol said that “the Government of Southern Sudan has invited Kenyan senior military officers for training of non-commissioned SPLA officers in an administration management unit.”
He confirmed that this training will end after four months. However, Diem did not disclose the centres where training would take place in South Sudan. He also added that the training, which kicks off in this month, will focus on how to improve the SPLA from a former rebel guerrilla force into a conventional army.
The Kenyan daily had affirmed that the T-72 tanks are now based in the capital of Lakes State, Rumbek where they were transported in airplanes from Moi Air Base at Eastleigh. The freight manifest of the MV Faina, a copy of which was obtained by BBC News last year, showed contract numbers that included the initials “GOSS,” thought to refer to the Government of Southern Sudan. According to that document, the consignee on the contract was the Kenyan Ministry of Defence.
In July 2009, the newsletter Jane’s Defence Weekly published satellite images, obtained via a commercial satellite, of 33 tanks moving northward. But the SPLA spokesman denied that the tanks were in Rumbek saying, “This is a great lie, there is no plane that transported military equipment into Rumbek.”
Finally, Kuol asserted that SPLA is working hard to install more troops along inter-tribal lines in Southern Sudan to protect civilians.
Wow, thanks for the links BEEGEAGLE.
I have really learned a lot here.
I suggest y’all REFRAIN from the many puerile attempts at drawing the Nigerian Armed Forces into this. It will continue to backfire until someone can put out ANY nearly comparative battlefield report on the Kenya Army. There are several other good people here and I don’t want to fray nerves. Kapish?
@Olekoima. At the onset of the Nigerian Civil War, the pro-Biafran lobby successfully got most Western nations(based on humanitarian concerns) to refrain from supplying arms to the Federalists. In an act of defiance, the FG turned to the East and acquired 45 combat jets, early variants of the ZSU-23 Shilka, over ten large torpedo boats and 122mm arty of that era from the Soviet bloc. Nigeria quickly learnt to diversify its sources of procurement and has kept it so ever since.
Study the past trend of acquisitions by the kenyan DOD. it shows a clear move towards modernization at least every 2 years in a rotational manner. First of all the Navy went for a new vessel the KNS Jasiri, its unfortunate how that turned out but the intent is clear. Then came the T-72 saga of the army followed by F – 5 purchases of the airforce.
Defence contracting is a complex field. We are talking billions of dollars up front and a constant supply of cash to major world players as payment for after sale services after the original deals. The noise that came from the T-72 acquisition and all its controversy is not from the fact that the tanks were bought for S. Sudan. The Brits were pissed that Kenya did not go for the Vickers MK – 7 or the more expensive chieftain as a successor to the aging MK-3s. What you buy is dictated by your financial and defensive deals. In this case the T-72 fit well into these 2 determining factors.
I would pity anyone who still thinks these tanks were meant for S. Sudan. Ask yourselves why buy 110 powerful combat machines if you dont have the expertise or the resources to operate and maintain them?
Like I said, Kenya have a preference for brand-new weapons while South Sudan can only afford refurbished or used weaponry for now. These consignments – 203mm Pion SP, BRDM-2 Scout cars, BM-21 122mm MRLS, ZU-23mm AA guns and 110 T-72 tanks belong to SOUTH SUDAN while the whole gamut of brand-new Chinese and Serbian-made weaponry are KENYA’S. Trust me.
My brother, we have been on this matter for long enough to know what we mean, For emphasis, here is a VOA NEWS report for you to read. Even satellite imagery confirms that the tanks are parked in South Sudan’s Lakes State.
http://forum.cybereagles.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=147890&start=0b
[size=200]Satellite Imagery Shows South Sudan Undergoing Arms Buildup[/size]
[b]VOA NEWS[/b]
By Alisha Ryu
Nairobi
29 July 2009
A recent report by the respected Jane’s Defense Weekly is raising concerns about an arms buildup in Southern Sudan. Analysts are concerned that any renewed conflict between North and South could be far more destructive that the previous civil war.
The report focuses on what Jane’s Defense Weekly says is South Sudan’s on-going attempt to assemble a significant fleet of main battle tanks, possibly with help from neighboring Kenya.
The author of the report, Lauren Gelfand, says her research tried to confirm reports that a shipment of 33 Russian style T-72 tanks, weapons and ammunition captured by Somali pirates a year ago aboard the Ukrainian freighter MV Faina and later released to the Kenyan government, were destined for South Sudan.
The Kenyan government has long insisted that it purchased the consignment of arms for the Kenyan army and officials in South Sudan have repeatedly denied any involvement.
Gelfand says that while she could not prove the tanks aboard the Faina are now in South Sudan, satellite imagery gathered between March and May of this year showed nearly two dozen new tracked vehicles under camouflage at a compound belonging to the Sudan People’s Liberation Army. Gelfand says the size and dimensions suggests the vehicles are not the older and smaller T-54 and T-55 tanks, but more modern T-72s. Gelfand says Jane’s Defense Weekly has confirmed from sources that South Sudan ordered 100 T-72 tanks as early as 2005.
“The T-72s that South Sudan said they did not order, the ones aboard the Faina, are the third of three shipments that had been ordered around the time the SPLM signed the CPA with the Khartoum government,” said Lauren Gelfand. “It fits within the broader context that even though they did sign this peace agreement, they still have an enduring disenchantment with one another and an enduring difficulty in really coming together and being one country.”
South Sudan officials had no immediate comment on the Janes Report.
The Comprehensive Peace Agreement, also known as CPA, was signed in 2005, ending one of Africa’s most devastating civil wars. The final death toll reached two million and another four million people were internally uprooted.
The CPA attempted to address the core issues that led to the conflict, namely complaints by the South that it was being politically and economically marginalized by Khartoum’s northern Arab-dominated government. Through the CPA, the former adversaries agreed to share power and oil wealth and to allow South Sudan to conduct a referendum on independence in 2011.
But amid on-going disputes about territorial claims and oil rights, the accord has largely failed to unify the two sides. Instead, analysts say both the North and South have tried to guarantee their positions by building up their armies.
Gelfand says the government in Khartoum, which is fighting a separate war in the western Darfur region, has been steadily modernizing its ground forces and significantly expanding its fleet of military aircraft.
“They confirmed last year that they bought a bunch of MiG-29 multi-role fighter aircraft and they also acquired Chinese aircraft,” said Gelfand. “And Chinese technicians were allegedly seen in North Sudan helping to train Sudanese air force pilots because they just did not have the ability to fly these sophisticated aircraft. The MiG-29s that were part of the air fleet beforehand had been flown by Russians. But it seems like there might be a move toward having indigenously-trained pilots.”
Khartoum also has attack helicopters, armed trainer aircraft, transport aircraft and a substantial arsenal of surface-to-air missiles, artillery, field guns, and advanced rocket systems.
Analysts say if the CPA collapses, Sudan can expect to return to full-scale war with better weaponry, more firepower, and more horrific loss of lives.
Yes “D”, i also find it strange when people argue that buying eastern weapons will represent a major shift in training and equipment yet the same people have been silent on the acquisitions from China and Romania. Aren’t these countries not eastern also?
Besides, countries like Egypt, Morocco, Zimbabwe and Nigeria all have a mix of both soviet/Russia and western weaponry. What make Kenya different so as to stick ONLY to NATO origin weapons?
Doesn’t even Sudan and Ethiopia have this mix?
what a blog,thanks.for uni4med guys ,pliz i want to join you in the kenya army.i am 19 yrs of age male.pliz,pliz can u tell me of the date the recruitment is to start.i have been waiting 4 so long since january this yr.my worry is that i am 5ft 3inches tall.but in the next 2 or 3 yrs i hope to hit 5ft 5in.can the height block my ambitions.i am also taking an accounting corse with kasneb.will i fit propery in the military,i hope so coz it’s my long dream career.olekoima,d”,risasi,kagendo,olenkarei and the others in uniform ,keep it up coz u are profesionals,and ur actions tells it all.i hope all will be well and i’ll be successful.mwistar keep bioging.the uni4med i’am sure it’s b’coz of your perseverance thats why you are where you are.pliz, pliz ,pliz in4m me of the date or the soonest u think the recruitment will take place.
hey mo you are all heart kid, i hope you get a growth spurt real soon. pray to get to 5 6′ to be on the safe side. stay disciplined and fit. when the date comes utajua.
Forget about the Nigeria guy. He is just trying to lure traffic to this website. what is posting about the T-72 is old school. In fact his country dosn,t have an airforce or a striking one for that matter.
Risasi, you can live a lie if it suits you.
If Nigeria does not have an Air Force, it is nothing new. At the onset of the Biafran War in 1967, it did not have a single fighter jet since the Air Force was only formed in 1964. Infact the Biafran Air Force launched the first air raid of the Nigerian Civil War.
Between August 1967 and Dec 1968, the same baby Nigerian Air Force had acquired 33 MiG 17s, 6 MiG 15s, six L29 Delfins and six IL-28 Beagles for a total of 51 jets, all acquired in one year. So you need not worry. Nigeria is NIGERIA.
But if you are relying on Wiki for your details, you have a BIG surprise coming. I am sure you know what a country which earns US$60-80bn yearly for the last five years and which has foreign reserves of over US$40bn can afford to do in one FELL swoop IF it has to do just that. It would only take US700m dollars to acquire 36 refurbished MiG 29s within three months.
Across Africa, ONLY Algeria, Libya, Angola, Egypt or South Africa will be able to adjust to vagaries so quickly. The sanctions placed on the NAF during the Abacha years did affect the NAF’s since its core striking force was comprised of Jaguar jets(now grounded and in storage). The G222 and C130 planes were also affected but the NAF are rebuilding and you need to be mindful of speaking too soon. SURE you would not want to end up sounding stupid in the long run.
Have a great day.
BEEG EAGLE I Don,t see how I am sounding stupid. I am merely interpreting what I see. the Biafran was 4 decade ago as you state, infantry warfare was at its pick. It seems you haven’t woken up and changed your tactics yet. your country is full of Anarchy and unrest let alone corruption. Have you ever seen that magnitude in east Africa? Yes we have our problems but you guys are the cream of it. You country has the cash but its full of greedy Generals who care nothing more then their foreign bank accounts. You aren,t the only country to be under a sanctions if that’s your excuse. I wish you country was on the east african region. You would have been under the rule of the mighty Kagame or the Notorious Museveni by now. Believe me if the east African countries plus Sudan and Ethiopian/Eretrian were to mount an offensive we will stop at the Atlantic sea in west africa and along “some” N.Africa states borders. It will be a walk over in some areas. Go enlighten your fellow west Africans. Post your ohrga crap somewhere else.
thanks very much d”.do u mean i am not old enough to join u.but thanks all in all.be blessed.
WEAPONS OF THE NIGERIAN CIVIL WAR
http://forum.cybereagles.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=65014&hilit=+weapons+of+the+nigerian+civil+war
I like following the comments on this page: very informative and quite entertaining at times.
But, let’s not get carried away – true military capabilities are a matter of national security for every sovereign nation. As the good Major ole NK (above) once put it: misinformation and disinformation is part of the game.
Therefore, any info you find in public domains should be taken with a grain of salt, regardless of how credible the source seems. At best, it is a good indication of what various countries have, but by no means is it comprehensive.
Therefore, be wary of anybody who masquerades as an authority on any specific country’s military capabilities.
When we come with expert opinion on what we purportedly know, we should endeavour to provide evidence. It is not OK to dismiss reports and evidence provided by reputable Kenyan, South Sudanese, Janes’ and VOA News sources whereas we have NOTHING whatsoever to repudiate the claims which we have ourselves set forth. It smacks of intellectual indolence
@ Beeg Eagle – My previous comment takes into account the evidence provided by news media. I am in the business of researching news leads.
I work closely with editors of western media; I also have, on many occasions, liaised with many govt departments and politicians.
What you call intellectual indolence, I call prudence. Feeding people with misinformation is easier than you think. We must remember, Sadaam Hussein had chemical weapons.
Mwistar, the parallel is untenable in this case because there is satellite imagery to back up whatever has been asserted by Janes’. That is indubitable evidence.
In April 1983, the Nigerian Army invaded Chad to recapture Lake Chad island posessions which had been occupied by Chadian forces on account official Nigerian indifference occasioned by remoteness from the centre (Lagos was over 1,000 miles away). The Nigerian Army armoured expeditionary force recaptured ALL 19 islands and captured a further 32 islands from the Chadian in ONE DAY of fighting. The Nigerian Army would not withdraw until the French backed up Chadian protestations to the Un Security Council with photographic evidence captured by satellite imagery
South Sudan is not a sovereign state and it can ONLY procure weaponry through a neutral third party. The weaponry which is currently pouring into South Sudan was acquired through a sovereign proxy and that country is KENYA. Because of its overlapping interest in South Sudan (read LRA), the Ugandan Government can ill-afford to upset the Khartoum regime.
When someone has a serious lead to repudiate my assertions as set forth thus far, let them post it. There can be nothing more to add when everyone has a certain persuasion but has no evidence to substantiate it. As you can see, I have posted links copiously for every assertion that I have made. That is what is expected in an objective and intellectual discussion.
Thank you, cybergenerals.
Satellite imagery you say? How come it only got about 33 tanks, the precise number that was in the MV Faina? Pure western propaganda isn’t it?Where the are the rest of the tanks that were bought from Ukraine between 2007 and 2008? They are 110 in total.
What about the over 100 T-54s/55s that were transferred to S.Sudan from Kenya in 2007. Couldn’t these be captured by the same satellite?
Are they suggesting that S.Sudan has a total of 210 tanks now(i.e T-72s and T-54s/55s). Where are the personnel to man all these machines? Isn’t this a massive tank force for young S.Sudan all built in a space of only 2 years? Guys get real, something does not add up here.
http://www.deagel.com/equipment/Main-Battle-Tanks-T-72-a000770.aspx
haha@ Cybergenerals
Beeg Eagle – If I recall correctly, there were satellite images to back the claims against Iraq. But let’s not dwell on that.
The point I am making is that, yes, there is public information about various military capabilities. Yes, there are certain sources of information that are credible. However, relying on publicly available information as though it is infallible is at the very least careless.
Of course South Sudan is not a sovereign state. That is besides the point.
Your ‘knowledge’ of the history of conflicts in Africa is good. I use the quotations because this information can be accessed by anybody who can spell a few key English words on a search engine online. Unfortunately, you are just regurgitating without adding any real value.
I am not arguing as a military expert – I would rather not plagiarize information. My comments are from the perspective of a researcher.
BEEG EAGLE I Don,t see how I am sounding stupid. I am merely interpreting what I see. the Biafran was 4 decade ago as you state, infantry warfare was at its pick. It seems you haven’t woken up and changed your tactics yet. your country is full of Anarchy and unrest let alone corruption. Have you ever seen that magnitude in east Africa? Yes we have our problems but you guys are the cream of it. You country has the cash but its full of greedy Generals who care nothing more then their foreign bank accounts. You aren,t the only country to be under a sanctions if that’s your excuse. I wish you country was on the east african region. You would have been under the rule of the mighty Kagame or the Notorious Museveni by now. Believe me if the east African countries plus Sudan and Ethiopian/Eretrian were to mount an offensive we will stop at the Atlantic sea in west africa and along “some” N.Africa states borders. It will be a walk over in some areas. Go enlighten your fellow west Africans. Post your ohrga crap somewhere else
RISASI, what sanctions have Kenya been under? OK, Eritrea have sanctions but the aircraft and armour which they use are of Russian origin so how does western sanctions affect those? You may be completely deluded.
Nigeria was the FIRST army to fight and WIN a Civil War on the battlefield in post-independence Africa.The attitude in INGRAINED. I am talking here about a secessionist army which had aircraft and artillery and armour, NOT LRA/Shifta-types wielding pangas. The Biafran Army had the crop of the finest Sandhurst and Aldershot-trained officers in the Nigerian Army prior to the Civil War and it was not comparable in either resourcefulness or training to the RPA which you are scared stiff of. The Biafrans distilled their own petrol, fabricated mortars and even armoured vehicles.
The scale of the battles which took place during the said war has NEVER been seen in East Africa outside of The Sudan. It involved amphibious landings of troops in the thousands and they used ships which are still not available in East Africa today (NNS Nigeria, a Dutch-built frigate inclusive). 35,000 troops of the Federal 3 Marine Commando Division hit the theatre in opposed amphibious landings through the estuaries of the Gulf of Guinea and the creeks of the Niger Delta. NO East African army can do that, forty-three years down the line.
You guys run around chasing cattle rustlers and you can use that to rate your army? Has the Kenyan Army fought ANY conventional war? Was the siege against the Sabaot Land Defence Force an event?
You mention Rwanda and Uganda. Because they chased out the prostrate army that was Mobutu’s? Were there any altercations on the way to Kinshasa? Since they are so good, why do the LRA (after 24 years) and ADF continue to exist? Why do the FDLR rebels continue to exist even after so many Rwanda incursions into eastern DRC since 1994 in pursuit? When the Angolans and Zimbabweans came along why did Rwanda and Uganda not advance beyond eastern DR Congo? Iron sharpeneth iron.
As far as we know in Nigeria(Nigeria and Rwanda were the first countries with troops in Darfur), the RPF AND UPDF are mere guerrillas who are still trying to be soldiers. If they torment you guys, too bad. The UPDF established an armoured brigade in 2008 and a field arty brigade in 2009. Guys, we have had those for 35 years! It also turned out its first paratroopers since 1986 only last year? Come on, don’t be ridicuous.
Need I remind you that when the Tanzanian Army (which destroyed Amin) mutinied in 1964 and was disbanded, it was retrained from scratch by a battalion of the Nigerian Army. The FIRST 100 officers of the post-independence Zimbabwe Army were trained in Nigeria in 1980. Those are today’s Zimbabwean generals.
Somebody was so ignorant as to mention that the Nigerian Army needs an upgrade. Here is a reality check. Dude, unlike the diploma-wielding officers which you have in East Africa, the Nigerian Defence Academy has been a degree-awarding institution where officers are drilled in military training and academic instruction for FIVE YEARS dating back to 1985 and 95% of Nigerian military officers are graduates. In terms of foreign military establishments, they outshine most other Africans in overseas institutions. Some of you mention Fort Bragg, Fort Lauderdale et al like you only just heard about them. Dude, our people have been training there quietly for fifty years and consistently come out with top honours possible for foreign cadets.
Even the expired and old-school Abacha was at Fort Bragg. Is there ANY institution where you send officers to which Nigeria will not have more officers in training? I am surprised that some of us sound SO INSULAR.
As we speak, Nigerian has had a satellite in orbit since 2003 and its field of view covers as far east as western Ethiopia. It was the first which spotted the build-up of Hurricane Katrina and has been used to capture imagery of all state capitals in Nigeria for us to see. It can see to resolutions of 2ftX1ft. Can you guys even gather intelligence in sophisticated as you talk crap about marching to West Africa? The future of air warfare is drones. Will East African armies even recognise one when they see one?
As for hardware, AS OF TODAY the NA holds stocks of more tanks, AFVs and APC/IFVs than ALL of Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda and has SIX as much forex than the same combination of countries…in case it comes to buying arms in a conflict situation. Nigeria also has more people than the same combination of countries PUT TOGETHER.
You are either overly nationalistic or optimistic to the point of naivety. Can you list the theatres where Kenya has been in action since 1963? Throughout the 1990s, Nigeria was in Liberia and Sierra Leone stabilizing both countries simultaneously. She spent US$8bn doing so. At peak deployment, the Nigerian Army deployed 13,000 troops in Liberia and 19, 000 troops in Sierra Leone. It deployed 7 Alpha jets and lost only one jet in 10 years. Those rebels were armed by Libya.
Nigeria was in firm control of the Bakassi Peninsula between 1993-2008 and in the Niger Delta where armed conflict broke out in January 2006, have you ever heard about rebels taking over ANY town? They only sabotage badly-exposed oil industry infrastructure (10,000kms of pipelines running overland and atop bodies of water) but they dare NOT trifle with the Nigerian military. NONE of the military institutions can even attempt to hold out in the Niger Delta, a region the size of Rwanda and Burundi and with a labyrinthine maze of 3,014 creeks and waterways.
its not out of nationalistic pride that i side with Risasi on this. Tactically speaking Beeg Eagle your army needs an upgrade. Ive seen some of your units in training. individual tactical movement is wanting and those are just the basics. Surely if you guys cant get that right how on earth can they mount a coordinated assault on a target with fire support and armour movement. Its not as easy as its seen in the movies. if your forward observers get it wrong your own artillery obliterates you. I dont criticize the filed commanders and platoon leaders in this its the fault of the big wigs for not providing sufficient competent training for your drill instructors. I were in charge of clamping down on those rebels in the niger delta for example i would use completely different strategies. Their position is not easily defensible seeing that one flank of theirs is the marshy terrain of the delta itself.
D, your point about tactics has to be a bit unserious seeing that the Kenya Army have scarcely EVER fired a serious shot anywhere or in any direction. Trust Africans to import what they have and export what they do not have. The Kenya Army needs to get some live fire experience before you sell ideas to Nigeria that has been battling almost non-stop since 1990, in and out of Nigeria – Liberia, SLR, Bosnia, Somalia etc. The NA need an upgrade from the frontline while the Kenya Army from the safety of their foxholes will do the instruction? Dude, get real. UNAMSIL ain’t ECOMOG, you know?
You appear to know little or nothing about the terrain of the Niger Delta. With 3,014 creeks and waterways, it is more of a FORMIDABLE stronghold than any mountain. Why did America struggle so badly in Vietnam? ANSWER – the war was fought in the even smaller MEKONG delta and the altercations were such that there was no script to be followed.
Someone mentioned internal crisis in Nigeria? Well, Kenya has 42 ethnolinguistic groups. You wanna compare that to 514 ethnolinguistic groups in Nigeria? It takes some time to harmonise diversity of that sort, so talk about what you are familiar with.
@Mwistar. This verbal rigmarole is not necessary. Just show me the reference materials I need to see. The BBC, VOA and Janes’ Defence are not credible but Wikipedia is? You guys sometimes make me laugh. Did you see the bromide of the MV Faina’s manifest when the BBC posted it at the time? It was clearly marked GOSS.
You guys are here talking about the quality of East African troops. have the Ugandan and Burundian troops not been practically straped to the precincts of the airport since they went in there in support of the TFG? During the 2nd Liberian Civil War and even with US Marines marooned offshore for THREE WEEKS, the FIRST army to go into Liberia to restore sanity was the NIGERIAN ARMY. Shells were falling on the UN compound in the capital at the time. That is what the Nigerian Army represents…NOT textbook rhetoric that has never been put to test anywhere.
The only REAL battle which has taken place in East Africa since Amin has been the Eritrea-Ethiopian War. I said so.
JUST A LITTLE IDEA OF WHERE the Nigerian Army is coming from.
THE BATTLE OF FREETOWN
24 February 1999: ECOMOG troops and the Civil Defence Forces militia have pushed rebel forces out of Waterloo, ECOMOG spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Chris Olukulade said on Wednesday. Waterloo is 18 miles from Freetown. “The battle to flush the rebels who had made bases in Waterloo Town and in the forest around the town started on Saturday. Yesterday, we were able to crush them finally and fully deploy in the town,” he said. “Our flushing of the rebels from Waterloo and the surroundings means Freetown is now safe, for the time being, from the threat of rebel attacks.” Olukulade said ECOMOG had used tanks and planes in the military operation, and had also captured Benguema, the site of a major military barracks. Radio France International reported Wednesday that ECOMOG was continuing to use Nigerian Alpha jet fighters to bomb the hills around Waterloo where rebel forces are believed to be located.
27 January: Fighting was reported Wednesday on the eastern edge of Freetown. ECOMOG task force commander Brigadier-General Abu Ahmadu said the force was targeting rebel hide-outs in the hills overlooking Kissy, Wellington, and Calaba Town. The Agence France-Presse (AFP) said Wednesday morning’s shelling was the most intense in three weeks of fighting in and around the capital. An ECOMOG spokesman said Guinean and Ghanaian ECOMOG troops advancing from Port Loko to the east had linked up with their Nigerian counterparts along the main road. He said the ECOMOG force would now concentrate their efforts on “flushing out” rebels from the nearby hills.
Fleeing residents told Reuters that several hundred rebels appeared to be in control of parts of the eastern suburbs, but that their numbers were increased by rebels who descended from the hills at night. Sustained small arms fire was also heard from the western edge of the capital, causing panic among residents. The spokesman said the shooting was from ECOMOG troops who had fired into the air during a search for rebel infiltrators at Juba Barracks, which houses soldiers of the disbanded Sierra Leone Army. Fighting in Freetown has created some 500,000 displaced persons in the city, Bishop George Biguzzi told the Italian Missionary Service News Agency (MISNA) . “The eastern sector of Freetown, where most of the heavy fighting took place in the last weeks, is the most critical considering it is also the poorest area of the city,” Biguzzi was quoted as saying.Spanish journalist Javier Espinosa was released on Wednesday, two days after he and French journalist Patrick Saint Paul were taken prisoner by AFRC/RUF rebels.
His released came after Saint Paul, who was freed on Monday, disclosed the contents of a rebel communiqué in a BBC interview. The rebels had demanded that their message be read over the BBC before they would release Espinosa. Espinosa told his newspaper, El Mundo, that only two of six Sisters of Charity nuns kidnapped last week were still alive. He said three of the nuns were killed in an exchange of fire between the the rebels and ECOMOG troops, and were buried in the hills near the rebel camp where he was held captive. A fourth nun was murdered on Friday. The rebels said they would kill the remaining two nuns if ECOMOG attacked their camp again.
26 JAN: ECOMOG bombarded suspected rebel positions overnight in the hills overlooking Kissy and in the wooded areas beyond Lumley before dawn on Tuesday. Shelling was also reported Monday night around around Calaba Town. ECOMOG officers said they were targeting “rebel infiltrators,” Reuters reported. The Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported “relatively little shooting” overnight, but said tension in Freetown remained high. A military source said ECOMOG troops were “moving south, and would start bombarding adjacent hills in the next 48 hours.” In conflicting reports, Reuters quoted medical staff at Connaught Hospital Tuesday as saying that the number of wounded arriving there had decreased substantially, while the AFP said wounded victims, many of them mutilated, continued to arrive at the city’s five hospitals.
The AFP, quoting hospital sources, reported more than 3,000 persons are known to have died during nearly three weeks of fighting between ECOMOG troops and AFRC/RUF rebel forces, with the final death toll expected to be much higher. No estimate of military casualties has been released.The Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported Tuesday that some 60 people were killed Sunday in an attack on Waterloo. The number is based on reports by residents of 25 civilian deaths and a claim by Guinean ECOMOG sources that 35 rebels were killed during clashes in the town. Some 17 houses at Waterloo were reported to have been burned down. On Monday, ECOMOG said rebels were present at Wellington, but claimed to have surrounded the rebels on all sides. “We have blocked all known routes and are patrolling the coast,” said ECOMOG spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Jimoh Okunlola, adding that rebel forces were caught between ECOMOG troops at Kissy and in Waterloo. Okunlola said the rebels’ supply lines had been cut and that they were running out of ammunition. ECOMOG spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Chris Olukulade said Tuesday that neighbourhood vigilante groups which have sprung up in Freetown have the support of ECOMOG. “We encourage that but there should be orderliness. They should be organised enough to help ECOMOG in countering the movement of suspicious characters or likely rebels in the society,” he said in a radio broadcast.
25 JAN: President Kabbah on Monday appeared to rule out a political settlement of the Sierra Leone conflict for the time being. “Now there is only a military solution,” Kabbah said. “We have to push the rebels far, far from Freetown.” Kabbah made the pronouncement following talks with Nigerian Foreign Minister Ignatius Olisemeka and Chief of Defence Staff Air Marshall Al-Amin Daggash, who were in Sierra Leone to assess the military situation. Daggash said ECOMOG troops were making good progress in what he termed “open warfare.”
Referring to reports of rebels using civilians as human shields, Daggash added: “We are moving slowly towards the east because we don’t want to kill everybody.”The Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported that intense fighting took place Monday between ECOMOG troops and AFRC/RUF rebel forces at Waterloo. Thousands of civilians were said to be fleeing toward the city centre from the eastern suburbs. In Kissy, the Safecon petroleum depot was reported to be on fire, according to a report by the pro-government Radio Democracy 98.1. Aid workers said they had registered 17,000 of an estimated 50,000 residents sheltering at the National Stadium. Throughout Freetown, members of the “Citizens Security Movement,” comprised of groups of neighbourhood civil defence units, manned checkpoints and conducted searches.Diplomatic sources said Monday that 140 rebels surrendered to ECOMOG Saturday at Tombo, according to an Agence France-Presse (AFP) report.
JAN 23; ECOMOG sources said on Saturday that their troops were still encountering resistance from AFRC/RUF rebel troops in the eastern suburbs of Freetown, between Calaba Town and Kissy, an area overlooked by hills. ECOMOG task force commander Brigadier-General Abu Ahmadu said ECOMOG was searching for stragglers among the retreating rebels in the eastern suburbs, and were “shooting on sight” many rebels they encountered although they had captured about 200 adult rebels and a number of child combatants.. An ECOMOG spokesman indicate said the force was conducting house-to-house searches in Kissy, but indicated that the town had not yet been secured. “Once a place is swept we deploy soldiers. This has not been done in Kissy yet,” he said.
ECOMOG sources also reported that rebels had infiltrated the forest area on the western fringes of the city, beyond Lumley. Lumley residents heard the sounds of shelling beyond the town Friday night, and took to the streets with machetes and sticks after hearing reports of rebel sightings in the area, Reuters reported. ECOMOG confirmed it had shelled wooded areas to the west. President Kabbah, who spoke on Radio Democracy 98.1 late Friday, said that military operations by ECOMOG would continue beyond the weekend, and apologised for the continued presence of rebels in the capital two weeks after they first entered the city. The Missionary Service News Agency (MISNA) reported Saturday that about 100,000 displaced persons had arrived in Freetown, fleeing fighting in the areas of Calaba Town and Wellington “due to the ‘turn’ the conflict is taking and for fear of the eventual atrocities the rebel groups could commit while escaping.”
ECOMOG Lieutenant Colonel Chris Olukolade confirmed the exodus from the eastern suburbs of the capital. “People are so afraid that they’re willing to risk their lives to flee the area,” he said. “Rebels are making incursions along the main road before going back up to the hills,” Olukolade added, calling the rebels “afraid and thirsty for blood.” ECOMOG Major Kaya Tanko told London’s Independent newspaper, “We have secured 50 per cent of the eastern end of the city, but our problem is the hills above Kissy. The rebels are hiding there. They come down at night to attack civilians and loot and burn their homes.” MISNA said that while Sierra Leonean authorities were trying to tackle the emergency, “until now they have not found a way to provide food, water and shelter for the displaced. It is the mere beginning of a human catastrophe.”
JANUARY 22: ECOMOG officers said Friday that Nigerian fighter jets were attacking rebel strongholds in the mountains surrounding Freetown, while Nigerian and Guinean ECOMOG units were closing in on rebels trapped on the eastern fringes of the city. “(The rebels) have been devastated and (are) running in all directions,” said ECOMOG spokesman Colonel Chris Olukuoade. “We are now on phase two of the operation, which is cordon and search.” RUF commander Sam “Maskita” Bockarie told the Agence France-Presse (AFP) Friday that AFRC/RUF rebels planned to launch an attack to retake the capital. “We are changing our tactic and planning a surprise attack on Freetown,” he said, adding that despite their retreat the rebels “were still a strong fighting force.” Bockarie denied allegations that the RUF was receiving assistance from Liberia and Burkina Faso. He claimed that the rebels had purchased or captured their arms from ECOMOG. “The Nigerians in ECOMOG are selling us arms and ammunition. They are collaborating with us,” Bockarie said. He added that other weapons had been “seized from ECOMOG soldiers who were captured,” adding that had captured “250 ECOMOG soldiers so far.”
JANUARY 21; Heavy gunfire was heard throughout the day Thursday from areas southeast of Freetown. ECOMOG sources said they had encircled rebel forces, who were caught between Nigerian troops pursuing from Kissy, and by Guinean troops advancing from Hastings who had now linked up with Nigerian forces closing in from Waterloo. French helicopter pilots under contract to ECOMOG said armed men identified as RUF rebels had been spotted Wednesday in villages in the Songo area, but ECOMOG sources said the current offensive against rebel forces would keep them confined to the high ground of the peninsula. AFRC/RUF rebels re-entered the Ferry Terminal area of Kissy on Wednesday night, killing scores of people and mutilating many more, witnesses said. Minister of Health and Sanitation Dr. Ibrahim I. Tejan-Jalloh said rebels had hacked off the hands of at least 30 Freetown residents. Rachel Fallah, a Sierra Leonean employee of the United Nations Development Programme, told the Associated Press that the rebels had raped young girls and forced teen-age boys to carry goods looted from homes. She added that rebels were using women and children as human shields against the ECOMOG force.
JANUARY 19: Fighting continued to the south and east of Freetown Tuesday, as a seven-day unilateral cease-fire declared by the RUF for Monday was ignored. ECOMOG escorted journalists to Kissy, which ECOMOG task force commander Brigadier-General Abu Ahmadu said was recaptured on Monday. London Times journalist Sam Kiley confirmed Tuesday that ECOMOG had forced the AFRC/RUF rebels from their strongholds in the Kissy and Clinetown area, and had recaptured the strategic Queen Elizabeth Quay. Kiley reported that fighting was continuing at the Ferry Terminal, about a quarter of a mile from the main dock, where the rebels continued to resist. Guinean ECOMOG troops were advancing through Waterloo, which was now in ECOMOG hands, he added. ECOMOG task force commander Brigadier-General Abu Ahmadu said the “worst fighting” was taking place in southeast Freetown, at Foulah Town and Maeba.
The Agence France-Presse (AFP) said the current ECOMOG offensive began Monday near Hastings, along the main highway linking Freetown to the interior. Military sources told the AFP that ECOMOG intended to prevent the rebels from escaping along the highway into the interior, thus trapping them within the peninsula. The AFP also reported that an unknown number of rebels had retreated Monday into the hills around Freetown, near the western suburb of Aberdeen, toward Lumley, Goderich, and Lakka.London Times journalist Sam Kiley on Tuesday described scenes of devastation in Kissy, the scene of heavy fighting between the two sides. “Practically every single building in the Kissy suburb has been burned to the ground by the rebels, and at every street one crunches on spent cartridges,” he said. “There are very, very few people on the streets. The atmosphere is extremely tense. It’s overlooked by mountains where the rebels can look straight down into the town.
But in the west of town the streets are actually quite full of people, until the curfew at 3:00 when they disappear.” Reuters correspondent Jeff Koinange wrote of “streets strewn with corpses and…burned-out houses, shops and churches,” adding that both Holy Trinity Church on Kissy Road and the Eastern Police Station had been destroyed. Kiley said that while ECOMOG was now in control of strategic sites in Freetown, the rebels maintained bases in the hills surrounding the capital. “My understanding is the Kamajors are operating in those areas that they’re familiar with, but in general Freetown is now very largely back in the hands of ECOMOG,” he said.
Reuters reported that looters had replaced rebels at the port, “stealing food, drink, and anything else they could find” from warehouses, and, together with the threat of a rebel counter-attack, would further delay the arrival of emergency relief supplies. “We need security at the port for vessels and cargoes, we need trucks and diesel, and we need security for them to get to distribution points in the city,” one aid source said. “Before that we’ll need to send our own assessment teams in.” ECOMOG task force commander Brigadier-General Abu Ahmadu told reporters that Nigerian ships bring reinforcements and supplies were due to dock on Tuesday. “Any other ships waiting to use the port can do so as it is now safe,” he said. Ahmadu said Fourah Bay College, atop Mount Aureol, was also recaptured on Tuesday. He said the rebels had defended the “strategic site” with mortars and anti-aircraft guns.Telephone service has been restored to Freetown, ten days after the telephone system was disabled during heavy fighting in the capital between AFRC/RUF rebels and ECOMOG troops.
18 January: The sound sustained heavy artillery and mortar fire erupted in Freetown’s western side Monday, indicating that AFRC/RUF rebels have penetrated the area for the first time since fighting began in the capital on January 6. The sounds of gunfire came mostly from the neighbourhood of Cockerill, the Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported, adding that “reliable sources” said the rebels were heading north along Lumley Road. A Nigerian ECOMOG officer said the rebels had regrouped in the hills overlooking Aberdeen and the Wilberforce Military Barracks before infiltrating the Westend.
Clouds of smoke surrounded the barracks, the AFP said. An ECOMOG helicopter, its guns aimed at the ground, circled around Cockerill, where ECOMOG has its headquarters, making sorties to Lungi International Airport and a heliport at a nearby hotel. A Nigerian officer confirmed that fighting was still continuing at Hastings, east of Freetown. Earlier Monday, most of Freetown was reported calm, although residents reported hearing sporadic heavy gunfire overnight from Kissy, where AFRC/RUF rebels continued to offer resistance.
Deputy Defence Minister Sam Hinga Norman, quoted Monday by BBC correspondent Prince Brima, said in respect of a cease-fire declared by the RUF that the government would not only insist on the cease-fire, but would prevent the rebels from moving into any areas they do not currently control. Norman said the government would observe the cease-fire as long as they were not attacked, but if the rebels did attack they would defend themselves. The unilateral cease-fire was to have taken effect Monday at 6:00 p.m. Witnesses were unable to confirm Monday whether it had gone into effect. ECOMOG has not committed to the cease-fire, but said it would step up its offensive against the rebels if the RUF did not stop firing. “If these rebels do not observe this cease-fire, we’re going all the way,” and ECOMOG officer said. Said Chief of Defence Staff Brigadier-General Maxwell Khobe: “The operational situation is progressing very fast. We have secured the Port of Kissy in the far east of the city.” RUF spokesman Omrie Golley repeated Monday that the RUF cease-fire was still scheduled to take effect at 6:00 p.m.
“When the RUF gives an assurance, particularly in these instances, it sticks to them,” Golley said. He told the BBC he expected the government to use the cease-fire “to really think about their position and enter into a political dialogue to effect peace and reconciliation in our country and to join the process…We want peace, and we want ultimately national reconciliation in our country. I would urge the international community and President Kabbah to basically take this situation as, maybe, a step forward, a good step forward, as a window for peace.” Golley warned that “from past experience” the RUF was in a strong position militarily should the cease-fire fail. “But what we should not be doing is continually talking about military, military, military situation. What we should be talking about now is how we are going to bring peace and national reconciliation in our country,” he said. RUF commander Sam “Maskita” Bockarie said he thought ECOMOG would ignore the cease-fire because “they do not want to share control of Freetown” with the rebels. “We are ready… If they do not respect (the ceasefire), then we won’t either,” he said. “If we are attacked, we will reply.”
17 January: Fighting between ECOMOG troops and AFRC/RUF rebels continued to the east of Freetown on Wednesday. London Times journalist Sam Kiley reported that the sounds of tanks and heavy artillery could be heard from around the university area, where “rebels are believed to be using a disused quarry and caves around there for cover.” The number of casualties in the city since the onset of the fighting has been conservatively estimated at 2,000, the BBC and the Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported on Sunday. The number is expected to rise on account of the number of injured, starving children, and because of the lack of medical care. Fires started by the rebels which have destroyed key installations, and reportedly even whole streets, coupled with damage from ECOMOG bombing raids, have left the city badly damaged.
ECOMOG commander Major-General Timothy Shelpidi said Sunday that re-establishing complete control over Freetown was a matter of “a few days,” but he acknowledged that “urban warfare creates a lot of difficulties.” He said bands of RUF rebels, often teenagers carrying assault rifles, and snipers on rooftops posed a threat which ECOMOG needed “better and more efficient means” to counter. He said the Nigerian Alpha fighter jets used by ECOMOG were too rapid, and said the force required helicopters, light arms, more communications equipment, and a commitment from other ECOWAS countries to contribute troops to the ECOMOG force. “We’re now organising civil defence,” Shelpidi added. He said the rebels, who had been prevented from getting back to the interior of the country, were now in the forested hills overlooking Freetown. “The worst thing is that the rebels change their clothes all the time,” said a Nigerian major. “One minute, they’re on the street in jeans and t-shirts, like you or me; the next they’re in stolen ECOMOG battle dress.”
Freetown was reported calm on Sunday morning, Reuters reported. Saturday night was reported generally quiet, although distant bombardments could occasionally be heard from the east. The news service described Freetown as a “disaster area,” with bodies littering the streets. At Connaught Hospital, a few local doctors with almost no medicine attempted to care for the sick and wounded, while dogs and vultures disturbed bodies piled in the hospital driveway. “The hospital is in a dire situation right now. There are over 80 war wounded requiring all kinds of medical help, and we just do not have the means to assist them,” said surgeon Dr Johnston Taylor. “There are bodies littered everywhere, unattended as well. We are appealing for any kind of help and assistance that we can get.” Most aid agencies evacuated their personnel to Conakry following the AFRC/RUF rebel attack on Freetown. Five expatriate staff of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), including a Dutch battle surgeon, were expelled by ECOMOG last week without explanation. On Friday, ECOMOG ordered non-government organisations and United Nations agencies to hand over their communications equipment, further hampering humanitarian operations.
JANUARY 14: ECOMOG has enlisted the help of Nigeria’s 72nd Airborne Regiment to help fight AFRC/RUF rebel forces who have withdrawn to the hills around Freetown, according to a “senior source” in ECOMOG. “Last time we made the mistake of not going all the way, this time we’re going to finish the job,” the source said. He said the regiment would arrive in Freetown on Thursday afternoon.
11 JAN: There was renewed heavy fighting between ECOMOG troops and AFRC/RUF rebels in the central part of Freetown on Monday, Reuters reported, quoting witnesses. The BBC and Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported that there had been heavy casualties on both sides, and said rebels had used non-combatants as human shields, resulting in civilian casualties. At Lungi International Airport, numerous ECOMOG casualties were brought in, while journalists and a pilot who had flown over the city reported seeing many uniformed bodies lying in the streets. “There is continued shelling and gunfire from the central district. It started around 9.00 a.m.,” one witness said.
BBC West Africa correspondent Mark Doyle reported that the rebels had set fire to Freetown. “Whole streets have been burnt down,” he said. “The United Nations military headquarters has been burnt down, the roof collapsed. As a result it’s completely destroyed. Other buildings, government buildings, have been set on fire by the rebels, and it seems that what they can’t have they’re going to destroy.” A local journalist who walked on Monday morning through parts of the city behind ECOMOG lines, including Tengbeh Town, Brookfields, Congo Cross, and Pademba Road, said many houses had been burned. From a distance, he said, he could see the telephone exchange (SLET) and the City Hall on fire, while a thick cloud of smoke hung over the city, obscuring some buildings.
The ECOMOG force said Monday it was gradually regaining control of the city. While claims of who controls various parts of Freetown are difficult to confirm independently, Doyle said ECOMOG appeared to be making advances. “I do know though that the Nigerian-led forces have entered an area, quite an important area of the city, where they weren’t yesterday, and the Nigerians say that they are advancing, and that certainly does appear to be the case,” he said. ECOMOG commander Major-General Timothy Shelpidi said his troops had secured the port and State House, and were pushing the rebels southeast towards “Kissy, Wellington, and Calaba Town.” The AFP reported that Nigerian Alpha fighter jets made continuous sorties from Lungi on Monday, while helicopters ferried in ECOMOG and Kamajor reinforcements and evacuated casualties. The government’s spokesman, Minister of Information, Communication, Tourism and Culture Dr. Julius Spencer, claimed that ECOMOG had retaken the central part of the city reached the eastern parts of the capital. “They should have gone past the Cline Town roundabout and probably are now in the Kissy area,” he said. Spencer acknowledged that ECOMOG had met stiff resistance from rebel forces at Kingtom, Brookfields, Tengbeh Town, and Pademba Road.
9 JAN: Witnesses reported Saturday seeing large numbers of wounded soldiers being evacuated by helicopter from Freetown to the ECOMOG base at Lungi International Airport. “I saw 60 or 70 wounded ECOMOG men evacuated. They looked like fresh injuries,” one witness told Reuters. The casualties provided evidence of heavy fighting between ECOMOG troops and rebel fighters for control of the capital. Nigerian Alpha fighter jets took off from Lungi to attack rebel positions. Minister of Information, Communication, Tourism and Culture Dr. Julius Spencer told the BBC that an ECOMOG counter-offensive had made advances in Freetown Saturday. “So as of now, ECOMOG troops are in the center of the city, clearing the rebels out of that part of the city. In fact they’re already moving toward the eastern part of the city,” he said. He added that “the rebels are in disarray. They’re fleeing.” Spencer said he was unable to give an assessment of civilian casualties in the fighting. “I don’t think it has been high, because ECOMOG has tried to be very careful. But the casualties are those caused really be rebels, because they’ve gone to knock at people’s houses, pulled people out of their houses, shot them dead.”
News accounts have emphasised civilian casualties resolting from bombardments by Nigerian Alpha jet fighters attached to the ECOMOG force. Spencer denied, however, that the government was planning a final counter-offensive to defeat the rebels. “The government has said we are prepared to adopt the multi-track or dual-track approach: dialogue and military force,” he said.News agencies gave varying reports of the fighting on Saturday. The AFP, quoting witnesses, spoke of a “precarious calm,” in Freetown Saturday morning, with deserted streets and few direct clashes between rebel and pro-government troops. “(Friday) night was quiet, and ECOMOG’s Alpha jets were not seen early Saturday,” the AFP said.
The Associated Press (AP) reported that artillery fire pounded Freetown Friday night and Saturday morning, and said heavy street fighting took place Saturday near Wilberforce Barracks and in Congo Town. The AP described Nigerian ECOMOG jets screaming over Freetown, “firing rockets into rebel-held territory.” The report said Alpha jets circled the capital for about an hour searching for groups of rebel fighters, while platoons of ECOMOG soldiers patrolled near-empty streets in the West End and artillery was fired at rebel positions in the hills to the south. Reuters described smoke rising from burning buildings in the east of the city after strikes by ECOMOG Alpha jets “which screamed low over the dilapidated city.”
The Deutsche Presse-Agentur (DPA) said rebels and pro-government troops engaged in heavy fighting on Saturday, with ECOMOG claiming successes on Saturday evening. Artillery fire pounded Freetown through Friday night and there were unconfirmed reports Saturday that Wilberforce Barracks was under attack by AFRC/RUF rebels. Reuters reported that smoke could be seen billowing from burning buildings in the rebel-held areas of the capital. “We can see burning buildings in the eastern district but the rest of the city looks calm,” a Reuters television journalist said. “A handful of people are stepping out cautiously to assess the damage in the streets. There is no traffic on the roads.” The Deutsche Presse-Agentur (DPA) quoted witnesses as saying that rebel forces were firing on Wilberforce Barracks and that ECOMOG troops stationed there were returning fire. The DPA quoted residents as saying that numerous houses were burning in the rebel-held east of the city, and noted “partly unconfirmed reports” that Kamajor militiamen were engaging the RUF in street battles.
6 JAN: AFRC/RUF rebel forces battled their way into Freetown on Wednesday, and according to many reports have seized State House and burned down the nearby Nigerian Embassy, the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) headquarters, and the capital’s main police station. Rebel fighters, many carrying assault rifles, roamed through abandoned streets in the city centre. “Districts in the Eastend of Freetown are under control of the rebels. We can see them from our windows patrolling the streets on foot and in looted vehicles,” one resident told Reuters. Others reported that bodies were lying in the streets while rebels prepared defensive barricades.
BBC correspondent Winston Ojukutu-Macaulay described the fighting: “The firing at one stage, the shelling at one stage, was actually very heavy,” he said. “They burnt down the CID, they burnt down Eastend Police, and a popular place called Picadilly at St John has also been destroyed.” He confirmed reports that rebel forces had captured Pademba Road Prison and released the prisoners, many of them former members of the AFRC government convicted of treason or awaiting trial on treason charges, along with surrendered solders of the former Sierra Leone Army whom the government feared posed a security risk. “Yes, yes, that was one of their first actions when they entered Freetown,” he said. “When they came into Freetown they simply marched into Pademba Road Prison with no resistance from ECOMOG and set free all of those detained there.”At 2:30 p.m. the BBC spoke to a “Colonel Sesay” who claimed to be in State House where, he said, the rebels had “overthrown the SLPP government.” State House is not currently used for governmental affairs, which are conducted from the “The Lodge” at Hill Station. Sesay said AFRC/RUF fighters had met no resistance from ECOMOG as they entered the city, and he claimed that rebel forces, which he put at “15,000 armed men,” controlled nearly all of Freetown. He told the BBC that the rebels were engaged in a battle for Wilberforce Barracks. “I can’t talk it to you now, the battle is going on. Someone has just told me they have captured, they have captured, the main office, that is the holding room and the guard room,” he said.
Sesay’s claims were sharply disputed by Minister of Information, Communication, Tourism and Culture Dr. Julius Spencer. “This fellow is lying,” he said. “And he also said they’ve captured Wilberforce Barracks. That was a blatant lie. It’s a lie. I’ve been to Wilberforce Barracks, I’ve been to State House. And I’m actually talking to you now from Wilberforce Barracks. I’ve been to State House earlier in the day. They are not there.” Spencer acknowledged that the rebels held parts of Freetown, including the Pademba Road area, Brookfields, and Ferry Junction. He claimed many of the rebels were hiding, because they were being pursued, and predicted that the rebel onslaught would be ended before nightfall. “You see they are going to be thrown out completely, not just from Freetown. In the areas which they attacked, in Makeni, the northern part, they are also going to be thrown out…You see, the real issue is that the people of Sierra Leone have said they want a democratic government. Nobody should think that they can come and overthrow a government by force of arms and take control of the country — that is out of the question!”
BBC correspondent Winston Ojukutu-Macaulay confirmed that rebel forces had reached the city centre, although he could not say whether they had occupied State House. “I cannot again confirm whether they are in fact in charge of State House,” he said. “What I can tell you is that they are occupying several houses very close to State House. I have spoken to one or two friends of mine who have called me on the phone telling me that the rebels have actually occupied their homes, which is just about a stone’s throw to State House.” Ojukutu-Macaulay said it appeared fighting was going on for control of Wilberforce Barracks. “By the sound of the shelling, I think that either ECOMOG is trying to push them away or the junta and the rebels are trying to force their way into the barracks.” The BBC correspondent noted that the rebels had met very little resistance when they attacked, “and that has taken a lot of people by surprise here in Freetown.”A source in Freetown reported Wednesday night that Wilberforce Barracks had not come under attack. He said the fighting which was reported took place at Congo Cross Bridge, near the stadium, when ECOMOG troops clashed with rebels to prevent them from releasing surrendered soldiers. “The barracks are safe, nothing is going on,” he said by telephone from near the barracks themselves. He added that ECOMOG troops were pursuing rebels in Freetown.
RUF commander Col. Sam “Maskita” Bockarie, claiming to be “just within around Freetown” said he was confronting ECOMOG with a force of 30,000 men, but told the BBC that ECOMOG soldiers should “stay calm, cease fire” so that the rebels could “negotiate their repatriation.” He said his fighters had the ECOMOG troops at Wilberforce Barracks surrounded, but that the rebels were holding off on attacking the ECOMOG base at Lungi. “Lungi Airport is just an outlet, that’s why we decided to just leave it open for awhile for those foreign nationals to leave. As soon as they leave, we’ll be ready to take Lungi,” he said. Bockarie warned that members of the civilian government had 24 hours to leave the country or turn themselves over to the rebels. “Anyone who is caught after that, he is going to be dealt with militarily,” he said. The rebel leader said he thought President Kabbah had already left the capital, a claim disputed by Minister of Information, Communication, Tourism and Culture Dr. Julius Spencer and Minister of Finance, Development and Economic Planning Dr. James O.C. Jonah.
In a separate interview with Reuters, Bockarie said his forces had captured most of Freetown, including the broadcasting station, but that fighting was continuing at Waterloo. “We even have the seaport. Fighting is at Waterloo now, and we are trying to get rid of the elements (of ECOMOG) that are putting up stiff resistance there,” he said. Bockarie said the rebels would agree to a ceasefire once RUF leader Corporal Foday Sankoh were handed over to them. Sankoh was reportedly transferred from Pademba Road Prison to an undisclosed location prior to the rebel advance. “If Sankoh is released and handed over to us we are ready to cease fire. And we will see to it that we can secure the repatriation of these Nigerian soldiers, because they are our brothers,” he said, adding that “the leader will tell the nation what next.”
Bockarie appealed to Nigerian leader General Abdulsalami Abubakar to release Sankoh to the RUF. “We are appealing to our big brother, his Excellency General Abubakar, we are appealing to him to instruct his commanders to turn our leader over to me,” Bockarie said.Nigerian leader General Abusalam Abubakar, ECOWAS Executive Lansana Kouyate, and services chiefs of the Nigerian Armed Forces met Wednesday to discuss the security situation in Sierra Leone. There was no word on details of their discussions.Sierra Leone’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, Joseph Blell, was in Abuja Wednesday to hold consultations with senior Nigerian officials. Blell said he hoped to meet with defence and government officials on Thursday to discuss the situation in Freetown. He described reports as “scanty” and “confused”, but said he hoped to discuss possibilities for action with Nigerian officials.ECOMOG officials maintained Wednesday that they were in control of Freetown. “We do have this under control and there is no way they can hold their ground,” said a Nigerian ECOMOG officer at Lungi.
Radio Democracy 98.1 broadcast only music for much of the morning, but Minister of Information, Communication, Tourism and Culture Dr. Julius Spencer has made frequent broadcasts since then. “ECOMOG will deal with the rebels decisively,” he said. Residents reported that rebels held the east end and parts of central Freetown while ECOMOG units patrolled the west end of the capital. Radio Democracy 98.1 announced that the curfew has been moved up an hour, so that residents must now be off the streets by 6:30 p.m. instead of 7:30. “Anybody found in the streets will be shot on sight,” the radio warned, adding “ECOMOG is warning all civilians behind rebel lines to heed this warning and not to get involved with the rebels.” Minister of Trade, Industry and Transportation Alie Bangura said that ECOMOG troops had been hampered by fleeing residents. “When the rebels tried to penetrate Allen Town, many civilians took to the streets. That is why it became difficult for ECOMOG to prevent the rebels from entering,” he said. “If ECOMOG encounters any group in streets, whether civilian or rebel, it will open fire,” he warned.
United Nations personnel left Freetown on Wednesday as the security situation in the capital deteriorated. Members of the United Nations Military Observer Force (UNOMSIL), along with U.N. Special Representative to Sierra Leone Francis Okelo, left Freetown by air from Lungi International Airport. Okelo confirmed that their destination was Conakry, Guinea. “We can’t guarantee the security here anymore,” he said. Asked about the state of fighting between ECOMOG troops and rebels in Freetown, military observer Col. Andre Bobylev replied, “It’s difficult to say. It’s war.” A spokesman for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said seven motorised boats had arrived in Conakry on Wednesday carrying 120 persons fleeing the fighting.
BBC West Africa correspondent Mark Doyle reported Wednesday that several government ministers, including Minister of Finance, Development and Economic Planning Dr. James O.C. Jonah, were at the ECOMOG base at Lungi International Airport. “I’m told by people here at the airport that there are several ministers,” Doyle said. “I don’t know if they’ve taken refuge or what, but this is obviously one of the safest places in Sierra Leone for the government for the time being. And yes, Dr. Jonah is certainly here, but I wouldn’t like to characterize him as taking refuge. But he is putting a very confident face on things.”AFRC/RUF rebel forces entered Freetown from the Eastend District early Wednesday and pushed to within a mile of the city centre before being turned back by ECOMOG troops, Reuters reported on Wednesday. A two-hour barrage on the Eastend beginning at 1:30 a.m. sent thousands of residents fleeing at dawn toward the center of the capital, Reuters said, adding that the sound of bombardments subsided after two hours but began again sporadically.
The Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported that the latest fighting began an hour after midnight, and said the rebels which included soldiers of the disbanded Sierra Leone Army engaged ECOMOG troops in heavy fighting. The BBC cited reports that the rebels were moving in from hills overlooking Freetown. ECOMOG used artillery and Alpha fighter jets in an attempt to halt the rebel advance. The rebels burned down a police station and briefly broadcast from a private radio station until an ECOMOG bombardment put it off the air. Radio Democracy 98.1 warned residents to keep off the streets, but said ECOMOG was in “complete control.” It promised an announcement on the situation shortly. Minister of Information, Communication, Tourism and Culture Dr. Julius Spencer, in a BBC interview, told people to stay at home. “Anyone found on the streets will be considered as a rebel,” he said. “Rebels have entered the east end of town and there is a bit of panic…The situation is very serious but it is going to be dealt with.” Spencer said ECOMOG troops had found it difficult to engage the rebels because they had been mixing with the crowd. He said the government had no plans to flee the capital, but called developments “a disaster for Sierra Leone and the Sierra Leone people,” adding: “Apparently this is happening and the rest of the world is standing by and watching.”
BBC West Africa correspondent Mark Doyle said the latest fighting in Freetown did not necessarily mean the rebels have broken through the government’s main defences, or that the government itself was threatened. He said that strategically important points in the city, such as the airport, were being defended by thousands of government and ECOMOG troops.Members of the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday condemned outside support for rebels fighting the government in Sierra Leone, Council President Ambassador Celso Amorim said on Wednesday. Amorim said Council members expressed their strong support for President Kabbah and for the efforts of ECOWAS and its military arm, ECOMOG, to bring peace to Sierra Leone. “Council members strongly condemned penetration of rebel forces in Freetown and also condemned the support for the rebels from abroad,” said Amorim. “Council Members strongly condemned rebel activities in Freetown. They expressed support for diplomatic efforts, particularly regional ones, to restore peace and security in Sierra Leone.The British Foreign Office has condemned rebel efforts to overthrow the Sierra Leone government, while urging the 50 estimated British nationals remaining in Sierra Leone to leave as soon as they could safely do so. “We condemn the rebel efforts to overthrow by force the legitimate government of Sierra Leone and atrocities that they have committed against innocent civilians,” a Foreign Office statement read. “We will work with the international community to restore peace and democracy to Sierra Leone.” The statement added that Foreign Secretary Robin Cook had been in touch with “key allies” to rally support for the government.
5 JAN: More than 100 AFRC/RUF rebels were killed Sunday in bombing raids by Nigerian Alpha jet fighters which bombed their mountain cave stronghold in Mankey, near Hastings, an ECOMOG officer said on Tuesday. “We flattened the cave and killed more than 100 rebels on Sunday,” said the officer, who was based at the Jui military garrison. Civilian survivors of Sunday’s rebel attack on Hastings and Jui said ECOMOG killed more than 200 rebel fighters. Reporters who were allowed into Hastings on Tuesday said that the rebel force, thought to have numbered more than 1,000, had completely overrun the town. ECOMOG sources said that many of the rebels wore civilian clothing and had infiltrated past Hastings.
A witness told the Agence France-Presse (AFP) that after the first attack on Hastings, the rebels had split into two groups, one comprised of renegade Sierra Leone Army soldiers, and the other of RUF fighters.United Nations sources said Tuesday that AFRC/RUF rebels still control Makeni, which they captured from ECOMOG last week. “The rebels have conscripted thousands of able-bodied men and women in Makeni and are training them to fight,” a U.N. source said. “They are patrolling Makeni in jeeps and on foot, stopping people from fleeing the town.” Makeni residents who have reached Freetown have given accounts of summary executions of those believed to support the civilian government of President Kabbah. “They have shot dead government workers, local politicians and business people,” one witness told Reuters.
4 JAN: AFRC/RUF rebels attacked Hastings Air Field early Monday morning, according to ECOMOG spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Jimoh Okunlola. “The rebels attacked Hastings at about 3:00 a.m. this morning, but we have now beaten them back into the hills around the town,” Okunlola said. He added that ECOMOG, backed by the Civil Defence Forces, was mopping up the area around Hastings. Okunlola said “dozens” of rebels were killed in the attack. He gave no casualty figures for pro-government forces. The rebels attacked their air field on December 31, burning ten buildings including, according to Liberian Star Radio, the newly-refurbished police training school and several private residences. Two planes used for shuttle flights were also reportedly destroyed. The fighting closed the airport, which had been due to reopen on Monday.
Renewed fighting between ECOMOG and AFRC/RUF rebels is taking place at Calaba Town, BBC correspondent Winston Ojukutu-Macaulay reported on Monday. “Details are very hard to come by from ECOMOG, but when I drove down to Calaba Town this afternoon, which is now the frontline, I was told by both eyewitnesses and police officials that the fighting started round about 10 p.m. last night,” Ojukutu-Macaulay said. “When I contacted ECOMOG and the Minister of Information (Dr. Julius Spencer) when I returned back to Freetown, I was told that ECOMOG and the civil defense forces are on the offensive at Pawpaw Valley, which is 16 miles to Freetown, and also at Miami Hills, another location very close to Hastings. They say that ECOMOG is on the offensive.” He quoted ECOMOG officials at Calaba Town as saying that ECOMOG was in control of Hastings and Waterloo, but that the rebels were off the road in the bush.
Ojukutu-Macaulay said reports reaching Freetown on Sunday night indicated that ECOMOG was now in control of Port Loko after four days of heavy fighting.ECOMOG has launched a counter-offensive against AFRC/RUF rebels occupying the town of Lunsar, U.N. Special Representative to Sierra Leone Francis Okelo said on Monday. The BBC reported that Nigerian Alpha jets strafed rebel positions around the town.ECOMOG tightened security in and around Freetown Monday as schools reopened in the capital, the Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported. “We have effectively thrown a security dragnet around the capital and residents need not have any fear,” an ECOMOG official said.
ECOMOG troops are reportedly targeting the area of Kossoh Town, where they believe AFRC/RUF rebel fighters are trapped and cut off from their rear base. Kamajor militiamen are posted in the hills near Charlotte, Bathurst, Regent, and Gloucester, “searching vehicles and combing the bush for rebels,” the AFP reported. The road between Freetown and Masiaka, closed the past two days because of rebel attacks, is now open to traffic truck drivers said on Monday.Nigerian ECOMOG troops have retaken Port Loko and halted the AFRC/RUF rebel advance toward Freetown, an ECOMOG spokesman said Monday. The Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported that ECOMOG troops are now in a position to mount a counter-offensive to drive rebel forces from other towns they occupy north and west of the capital.
1 January: ECOMOG troops have driven AFRC/RUF rebels from Port Loko, an ECOMOG spokesman said on Friday. “We inflicted heavy casualties on the rebels in our air and ground operations to flush them out of Port Loko,” the spokesman said. “Our war jets massacred them as they moved truckloads of more men to reinforce the positions they had taken in the town.” Minister of Information, Communication, Tourism and Culture Dr. Julius Spencer and residents who fled the fighting confirmed that ECOMOG was in control of Port Loko with the help of thousands of Civil Defence Forces militiamen.
Spencer said Lunsar was still under rebel control.Chief of Defence Staff Brigadier-General Maxwell Khobe said Friday that many soldiers of the former Sierra Leone Army had defected to the rebels, while others had shown little willingness to fight. “Apart from the outright betrayal, others had demonstrated some high degree of cowardice in battle, leaving the allied forces, ECOMOG and the civil defense forces to do battle against the AFRC/RUF rebel fighters,” Khobe told soldiers at Lungi who were being retrained to join a new national army. “The episode has posed a great challenge to the existence of the Sierra Leone army in the near future, Khobe said. “”It would require extraordinary effort … to redeem the image of the Sierra Leone soldiers. Those of us who are committed to peace in Sierra Leone are totally embarrassed.”
31 December 1998: ECOMOG troops repelled an AFRC/RUF rebel attack Thursday on their military barracks near the garrison town of Hastings, according to an ECOMOG spokesman. Residents fleeing the town reported that the rebels had attacked overnight, and said they had also attacked the Hastings Air Field. The spokesman said ECOMOG was forced to abandon its frontline trenches at Hastings during the initial onslaught. At least 40 persons were killed in the fighting, he added.
Residents said the fighting had stopped by mid-morning, but that ECOMOG soldiers later shelled hills around the town.The fighting at Hastings followed attacks Wednesday on Waterloo and Lunsar. Minister of Information, Communication, Tourism and Culture Dr. Julius Spencer told a news conference Thursday that ECOMOG had driven the rebels back from Waterloo. “ECOMOG troops killed a lot of rebels in their attack yesterday on Waterloo,” he said. He said the rebels had just attacked an ECOMOG barracks near Kossoh Town. “The infiltration of rebels into the Peninsular area is a cause for concern,” Spencer said, but told reporters that those who had attacked Kossoh Town and Waterloo were cut off from the rear and trapped.
BBC West Africa Correspondent Mark Doyle said hundreds of pro-government militiamen, armed with shotguns, knives, and spears, were massing for a probable new operation against the rebels. He quoted government sources as saying a counter-offensive would begin soon. Spencer repeated assurances that the rebels posed no military threat to Freetown, and he said they were mounting attacks near the capital in order to create a negative psychological effect on the population. Spencer dismissed as “disinformation” a statement by United Nations Special Envoy Francis Okelo that the northern half of Sierra Leone was under rebel control, but conceded that an area in the centre of the country was held by the insurgents. He said about five towns in the north were under rebel control: Lunsar, Makeni, Binkolo, Kamabai, and Kabumbe. He said ECOMOG controlled Kabala, all of Kambia District, parts of Port Loko District, and all of Tonkolili and Koinadugu Districts. He said there was no rebel activity in the south, while in the east the rebels were still holding Koidu and had tried to attack Daru.Spencer noted that the rebels had mounted attacks on Port Loko and Lunsar on Wednesday, and he reported that Lunsar had fallen. A “senior ECOMOG commander” quoted by the Associated Press denied that Lunsar was under rebel control, but he acknowledged that rebel forces were in the area. Spencer told reporters that Makeni was also in rebel hands.
Aid workers and “sources close to” the Civil Defence Forces (CDF) militia told Reuters, however, that the rebels had pulled out of Makeni and that the CDF was now in control. CDF sources said the rebels left Makeni in three groups, one heading for their eastern base, one moving toward Lunsar, and one going in the direction of Port Loko. Heavy fighting raged between ECOMOG troops and AFRC/RUF rebels Thursday for control of Port Loko, which has been mostly deserted by its civilian population. The town came under attack by hundreds of rebel fighters on Wednesday. “Our jet fighters bombed their positions in the town,” an ECOMOG spokesman said. Journalist Emmanuel Turay, who fled Port Loko on Thursday, said rebels and ECOMOG troops held different parts of the town, and that both sides were firing mortars. “The death toll is not clear but there are bodies lying in the streets,” he said. Spencer said the rebels had attacked Port Loko, but had been turned back.
The Agence France-Presse (AFP) quoted residents of nearby villages who reported hearing prolonged bombardments throughout the night directed at areas of suspected rebel concentration.A spokesman for RUF commander Sam “Maskita” Bockarie claimed Thursday that the rebels had captured Segbwema and that heavy fighting was going on at Daru. Spencer said ECOMOG and the Civil Defence Forces were moving towards the Sierra Leone-Liberia border to seal off the area. He said ECOMOG maintained a strong presence in the towns of Zimmi, Gufor, and Wonde. “There is the possibility of the war ending militarily,” Spencer said. “But this does not mean that if the rebels laid down their arms, we would not talk peace.” Kamajor sources were quoted as saying that the area between the Moa River and the Liberian border are now fully under the control of the Civil Defence Forces. ECOMOG troops closed roads from Freetown to Waterloo and Hastings on Thursday to prevent rebel infiltrators from reaching the capital by mingling with fleeing civilians, an ECOMOG spokesman said. Police in Freetown announced Thursday that about 300 civilians had been detained as suspected infiltrators. Nigeria sent further reinforcements to Freetown on Thursday.
The Nigerian government has reportedly sent more than 9,000 troops since the weekend, bringing the total strength of the ECOMOG force to around 19,000. An ECOMOG spokesman said Wednesday that additional battalions would continue to arrive from Nigeria, and that ECOMOG’s strength could reach 20,000 by the end of the week. He said that of the other ECOWAS countries which had promised to send troops, the only ones to arrive were 200 from Ghana who had had transferred from Liberia in the week. According to estimates reported by Reuters, rebel strength could exceed 20,000 while the Civil Defence Forces militia, made up of various hunters’ militias, numbers about 30,000.
29 December: 1,000 additional Nigerian soldiers arrived in Sierra Leone on Tuesday, bringing the total strength of the ECOMOG force to over 14,000, according to an ECOMOG spokesman. “This batch of 1,000 men brings the total of Nigerian troops flown into Freetown to 3,000 since Sunday,” he said. “Several thousand more men will be flown in within the week.” The Agence France-Presse (AFP), quoting “reliable sources”, said ECOMOG had some 9,500 troops in Sierra Leone, 7,000 of them Nigerian, prior to the arrival of additional Nigerian soldiers on Sunday. Nigeria has also brought in three warplanes, increasing the number operating in the country to at least seven. A senior Ghanaian Defence Ministry official said ECOMOG troops were now concentrating on defending Freetown. “We have sent some men and officers to help beef up what is already on the ground,” he said.
27 December: ECOMOG troops fought AFRC/RUF rebels on Sunday for control of Makeni, an ECOMOG official said in Freetown. He said about 50 rebels were killed Saturday when Nigerian Alpha jet fighters attached to the ECOMOG force bombed rebel positions in the town. The official said he expected the planes to return to take action against take action against the rebels, who had regrouped at Makeni Teachers College. The college, which is on the outskirts of the city, is close to ECOMOG’s main military base in northern Sierra Leone. “Most of the civilians in Makeni and the surrounding area have fled so we are only left face to face with the rebels,” the official said. Communications links to Makeni have been cut, and no independent assessment of the situation in Makeni could be made, Reuters reported. Makeni residents who reached Freetown on Saturday confirmed that ECOMOG was in control, although some reported that the rebels were in parts of the town or that ECOMOG was defending the military barracks.
RUF commander Sam “Maskita” Bockarie also made claims that his fighters had captured the town, saying Saturday that the rebels had killed 60 ECOMOG soldiers and dragged their bodies through the streets “as an example to everyone.” Bockarie, who has threatened an AFRC/RUF rebel assault on Freetown, called on President Kabbah to resign. “Failure of Kabbah to resign, and we will start bombarding Freetown and will not stop until victory is won,” Bockarie told the Associated Press.Hundreds of people have reached Freetown, saying they were forced to flee rebel attacks between Thursday and Saturday on the fishing village of Tombo, just south of the capital.
DECEMBER 24: AFRC/RUF rebels came within striking distance of Freetown before being repelled by ECOMOG troops, the BBC reported on Thursday. It added that ECOMOG re-established its positions in Waterloo on Wednesday. “A number of young people were kidnapped by the rebels and several houses in Waterloo burned down in the fighting,” the report said, adding that the capital remained tense. Freetown was reported calm on Thursday morning.
DECEMBER 23:: ECOMOG has increased its troop strength in Freetown in the face of a renewed rebel threat on the capital. “More than 1,000 troops were flown in yesterday,” an ECOMOG officer said on Wednesday. The Nigerian reinforcements were said to have arrived at Lungi International Airport at dawn on Wednesday. Overnight, the sound of artillery and small arms fire could be heard around the capital. According to Reuters, many shops and businesses did not open on Wednesday. Authorities in Freetown said Tuesday’s attack on Waterloo had killed one civilian and wounded several others. ECOMOG said the city had now been cleared of all “rebel elements.” Liberian Star Radio put the death toll from the Waterloo attack at 30 people killed and several others wounded. 15 houses were burned down, the report said, quoting eyewitnesses.
Minister of Information, Communications, Tourism and Culture Dr. Julius Spencer, in a broadcast over Radio Democracy, said a bombardment heard in Freetown early Wednesday morning was a pre-emptive strike. Spencer said ECOMOG had received information that the rebels were descending from Mount Aureol and were planning to enter Freetown via Fourah Bay College. “The area was then hit with maximum force to ensure that if the reports were true, the enemy would be destroyed,” Spencer said, adding that after several hours of bombardment, “It turned out that nobody was there.” Spencer advised people not panic or to leave their homes at the sound of gunfire, because such pre-emptive attacks were “likely to occur from time to time as ECOMOG is committed and concerned that nothing should go wrong particularly in the city. So if such information is received, ECOMOG will take decisive action.”
21 December: ECOMOG troops launched an artillery attack on rebel positions at Sumbuya and Songo, 30 to 40 miles east of Freetown, ECOMOG spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Jimoh Okunlola said on Monday. The sound of mortars and machine gun fire could be heard intermittently from the outskirts of Freetown throughout Sunday night.
BEEG EAGLE your plan to lure people into your website http://forum.cybereagles.com/ isn’t working. Nobody will read such a long posting like theone above.
As a matter of fact, THAT is a web forum which has about 90% of its members living in Europe and North America. 90% of them are Nigerians and there are Africans from everywhere discussing out there including Kenyans(using Major General Ogolo as moniker)and “The Ugandan”.
In the light of the fact that I am based in LAGOS, it can HARDLY be my website. I am just a FLOOR MEMBER there and I have been discussing with savvy Africans and Nigerians out there. My weblog ONLY went into action in APRIL 2010.
http://www.beegeagle.wordpress.com
Don’t mix things up, brother.
As for the live feed from ECOMOG, you have already read through it as we write this, so stop playing the hypocrite.
Have a blessed day and step up your game.
PS: It is unfortunate that someone out here is blotting out my posts…the very ones which go to the heart of your questions. I hate to imagine that an old boy such as my friend Risasi could be so intolerant. Act your age, man.
My last two posts had to do the fact that your very best East African generals such as the UNAMID Force Commander, Rwandan Lt General Patrick Nyamvumba was trained at the Nigerian Defence Academy while Uganda’s General James Kazini trained at our National War College. That is just for your info as you prepare to drill the trainer himself on tactics. I also set forth the FACT that a battalion of the Nigerian Army it was which retrained the TZ Army after it was disbanded in 1964. Even the pioneer crop of Zimbabwe National Army cadets trained in 1980 were trained at the Nigerian Defence Academy. They are today’s Zimbabwean generals.
Someone edited all of that because the truth stung so hard. What a pathetic joke.
For the bush ones who think that Sandhurst is on the next planet, here is a link to view. It is from the 158th Sovereign’s Parade held on Friday 12th December 2008. THE BEST FOREIGN CADET WAS AGAIN A NIGERIAN, beating KENYA’S
Charles Mulalya Makau (the same Kenya which know so much about tactics from behind desks?) and the FEARED Rwanda’s Steven Semwaga.
http://forum.cybereagles.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=140686&start=230
PS i have a diploma BEEG EAGLE and am not even an officer yet!!!
Well, it takes nothing away from the fact that the ONLY officer-training academy across Anglophone Africa which is awards degree and trains officers for FIVE YEARS is the Nigerian Defence Academy. It was a diploma-awarding institution between 1964 and 1984. In 1985, the NDA became a degree-awarding institution. As we speak, the NDA even awards postgraduate degrees. You guys seem not to know what goes on beyond your frontiers, I imagine. Go
The Kenya Armed Forces Training College train cadets for 24- 30 months max. As far as I know, the qualification which Kenyan cadets pass out with therefrom is equivalent to a GCE A’Level or OND. Egerton University moderate the academic content of officer cadet training at AFTC and ALL that it leads to is the award of a sub-degree qualification.
OK. Your officer cadets are EVEN trained for only 20 months less than 2 years whereas Nigerian cadets train for FIVE years! I wonder what you guys are actually feeling cool about. Anyway, ignorance is BLISS
KENYA
http://www.mod.go.ke/?page_link=kma
Do you know what the qualifications for cadet training are in Kenya? A university degree is basic, that diploma from AFTC is a POSTGRADUATE diploma. Its only because of financial constraints that the army stopped sponsoring cadets for university degrees. Those degrees awarded at NDA are not military related, save for a bachelors in military science. The rest are regular arts degrees. Our universities churn out hundreds of thousands of graduates per year. Those choosen for officer cadet training are the cream of the crop. Best brains in Africa in all fields.
Tell me something are you uniform or do you just pluck out info from the web? Coz like you said ignorance IS bliss.
That amounts to BLATANT FALSEHOOD. The ab initio training which is accorded to your cadets is no postgraduate qualification. It is a sub-degree diploma and thereafter, the cadets(post-commissioning) are taken through undergraduate studies by DISTANCE LEARNING. Before they attend Staff College, they should have become graduates.
In that way, the Staff College training becomes like a PG diploma. Finally, upon attendance at the apex National Defence College, they now justifiable end up with a Masters degree.
As for NDA, YOU ARE SO WRONG. The NDA runs undergraduate and postgraduate degree programs in the following and MORE(for PG studies)
Econs and Mgt Sc ( Army Finance Corps, Accts, Admin)
Political Science and Defence Studies (read the name)
Geography (Meterology and Navigation)
Chemistry (chemical warfare)
Biology (biological warfare)
Physics (engineering support)
Computer Science (IT skills)
Mechanical Engineering (Army E & ME
Civil Engineering (Field and Combat Engineers)
Electrical/Electronics Engineering (Army E & ME)
So much for not being military-related. What are you on about really? Dude, let it go.
So what are you guys upto with all this discussion about degrees and such like things in the military? What are you actually comparing?
I don’t see where all this crap about education is leading to.
We in Kenya are adequately trained and we don’t care what others think . What we have is sufficient for us and our needs.
How is Nigeria supposed to threaten us?
BEEGEAGLE, your postings are unnecessarily long. I lose taste reading such long scripts. Please shorten them.
BEEG EAGLE,
I have read your responses to various members above and i am astonished at the level of ignorance you have so far displayed concerning East African armed forces.
You are clearly basing your arguments on out of date information gathered from the internet.To argue that no East African force can recognize a drone is not only laughable, but pitiful as well.Drones are not new in this continent and the decision to have them is based on the need.It is therefore not beyond Kenya’s reach to acquire them.Sample this:-
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2010/04/30/Africas-oil-wealth boosts-arms-sales/UPI-38821272652572/
You have indicated above that Nigeria has helped to train various country’s armed forces such as those of Tanzania(1964) and Zimbabwe. While this is obviously a good gesture and expected of a country of Nigeria’s calibre, you have not been alone in this field. Kenya trained the Namibian armed forces following their independence in 1980 and is doing the same for the South Sudan’s armed force right now.It is also helping to train Somalian army alongside Uganda,Ethiopia,Djibouti and Tanzania(Police).
What is more, Tanzania too trained soldiers for a number of countries during the Liberation struggle.
Frankly speaking, Nigeria is not and can never be an African military power in its present state. This military is in a chaotic state and needs a total overhaul starting with the leadership. Nigeria at the moment cannot project any force beyond her borders. It is only lucky to be bordered by militarily inferior countries.
A huge slice of the military inventory is obsolete and at best very rusty.A country of such an economic and political clout needs a better force and better equipment. What do you say of an air force equipped with only 12 F-7 fighter jets? Man you are in a friendly territory, otherwise you will need a good number of more modern fighter planes. Look Uganda is getting 6 SU-30MK2s, with these they can easily have your entire air force for dinner.
Wake up buddy and help take Nigeria where it should be.Doesn’t it offend you to see Nigeria still armed with museum types T-55 MBTs?Even with your degrees, are these what you think can defend Nigeria in the event of a more formidable aggressor? What do you do with all the oil money?
Corruption is killing your country brother. Can you actually face Morocco or Algeria for that matter? Even Ghana with her small, but professional military might be a tall order for you.
Some of you really amuse me with this battle experience crap.Just because Kenya has never gone to war since independence means that it is militarily weak.What nonsense?
How many countries have never gone to war in years yet we cannot afford to mess with them?
Can the mighty US even challenge China just because it has no battle experience?
Have South Africa and Brazil gone to war in recent years?Can we dare them?
What is the reason that these countries have never been to war even when surrounded by hostile adversaries.Cowardice?
Young Israel was invaded in 1949 by an allied force of battle hardened adversaries.Who won?
But huh,”mighty”Nigeria is well trained in prestigious military schools in Nigeria and all over the world and is expected to roll over all adversaries by outwitting them in battle field tactics.After all they all have PhD’s in military science and battle experience to boot.Never mind they have been unable to outwit MEND in spite of all these.
Sorry the link did not pick the information i intended to pass about the Drones.Kenya is interested in buying some from Israel for border surveillance.I will post the link again.
I have no idea why am arguing with this ignoramus on facts about MY army and how we pick OUR cadets. Am going to let it go like you said and you better not start gloating about winning anything. Give respect where its due mate, you are a web surfer nothing more. You have no idea on how to lace up a jungle boot and despite your loud noises Mr. Beeg Eagle about ECOMOG you yourself wouldnt last 2 clicks in action., closest you ever came to a shootout is those D rated nollywood clips househelps in kenya like so well.
IF DEGREES alone could win wars then America should be by now out of Iraq and Afganistan,then Vietnam could have been a piece of cake and the 38th parallel that now defines the border between north and south korea could not be existing.
Those so called educated generals in Nigeria have periodically presided over one the the number one corupt regimes in africa….until NIGERIANS ARE known and feared for mega coruption deals .
@SPIDERMAN. A Kenyan it was who first brought up the issue of training. REF military training, I have listed OVER 17 Nigerian corps training institutions for you to see. I can list more if you want. If it has to do with academics, the facts have been equally presented. Believe what you will. Even if degrees do not win wars, I do not see what advantage Kenya enjoy from the perspective of experience. Even with PKOs, we do MORE of peace enforcement in Nigeria…NOT tepid PKs.
@Olekoima. You just posted more drivel. Y’all are acting like grumpy babies and endlessly shifting the goalpost. Stick to the issues PLEASE.
I have said to you that from the perspective of hi-tech intelligence gathering, you guys are an eon behind. Where are your radar planes, your satellite, your comprehensive coastal and terrestrial radar systems?
Someone mentioned obsolescence? How dull can it get. Nigeria’s Jaguar jets and MBB-105 armed helicopters are in storage whereas Kenya’s older F5 jets and MD-500 armed helicopters are still airborne. WOW, you guys are so smart.
The newest things I see in the KAF arsenal are the Chinese Z9-WA (a clone of the Aerospatiale Dauphin) . Are those more modern than Nigeria’s Agusta AW 109 LUHs? Are the Kenya Army’s newest WMZ 551 APCs more modern than Nigeria’s 2000s-vintage BTR-3 APCs or the Otokar Cobra IFVs which the Turks are right now using in Iraqi Kurdistan? Just like the VBL scout car which we use is MAINSTAY in Afghanistan with the French forces. How is Kenya’s AML-90 more modern than the Panhard Sagaie or the Engesa EE9 Cascavel? Are the PT-76 and Type 63 light tanks which you round around with in EA anything to be compared with the Scorpion or Scimitar light tanks of Nigeria? So much for obsolescence. Very dull allusions to nothing.
It becomes even more ridiculous. Ghana’s so called professional army was more famous for rearguard duties during the ECOMOG years. Of what use is that Army? If some of you were more well-informed then you would know that Patrice Lumumba and Samuel Doe of Liberia were seized at the hands of Ghanaian troops. As such, that was a factually STUPID parallel to introduce to this topic under discussion. Ghana Army shine boots for Nigerian officers…dear bla-blabbers.
HERE IS WHAT a Sierra Leonean international journalist had to say of the Ghanaians:
“Let me also point out that the Ghanaian contingent of ECOMOG are cowards of the highest order. Those guys did not take part in any combat that I am aware of. All they did was wait for the Nigerians to capture and area, and then hide behind sand-bags claiming to be manning checkpoints. But kudos to the Nigerians for their bravery.”
The Nigeria Police anti-riot force (Police Mobile Force) have three times as many APCs as your Ghana Army which went to ECOMOG using 81mm mortars as its heaviest piece of equipment (their four BM-21 and six 122mm arty were acquired in 2003 and with that the 66 Arty Regiment was formed). You guys are sounding more ridiculous by the minute. The endless stream of dampeners are NOT WORKING.
For those talking glibly about weak neighbours, Chad is our next-door neighbour and it is almost as well-armed and MORE combat-experienced than your UPDF. It is DEFINITELY far more well-armed than the RPA. The Chadians have been at war without end since 1978. Go figure, gentlemen. Even if threat assessment is the issue, we can afford all the men, materials and adjustments without a major national economic meltdown and at the drop of a hat. NONE of your broke EA Armies will last the mile without crumbling your economies.
I RESTATE that adversaries such as the Biafran Army which the Nigerian Army comprehensively defeated on the battlefield have no comparison in all the forest run-arounds taking place in East Africa TODAY. NO East African Army has faced as stern, diplomatically well-leveraged and well-motivated an adversary till date. If you dunno, that is because you guys were still in the Middle Ages at the time. It was Africa’s first modern war. You run around with cattle rustlers and dunces such as Joseph Kony and his butchers and that makes you what?
Last October, Toposa cattle thieves mowed down 19 Kenyan troops. Tell me what happened before you start preparing for an apocalyptic showdown with Nigeria. Last week, the UPDF had ten of its ELITE troops killed by Sudanese militiamen who crossed over into the CAR for a hunting expedition. What happened? So the UPDF marched to Kinshasa? Well, why not march into The Sudan? You cannot face up to that yet you are all dreaming of marching to West Africa. You know, many of you guys just come here talking nonsense after altercations with minnows. Of course, the UPDF won’t violate Sudanese territory like they do with prostrate DR Congo. “Every foot has its shoe size”.
I have said and I say AGAIN, if you guys do not desist from this poor attempt at drawing parallels ( we call it the small man’s syndrome – always craving validation), you may get your egos badly bruised. The only thing you can talk about is corruption and even so, Kenya have finished lower Nigeria SEVERAL TIMES on the yearly Transparency International Corruption Index. Again, it shows how and inferiority-complexed and self-loathing many Africans can be that Kenya which has no movie industry of her own can point to Nollywood. Many of us here appear not to have self-esteem that is why you scarcely think before you talk. You should be thinking of growing your own movie industry to rank. We are AHEAD of you even in music and movies, like or loathe them.
As for copying and pasting from the web, even that is not easy. Unless you know your stuff and are conversant with the subject-matter, you may end up posting police information instead of military data. You understand?
my brother , you have well talked and we have heard you , but you appear to be missing out on war and its realities , having superior weapons alone doesnt make an army formidable . i e why was it that the americans with all there fire power lost the vietnam war? why were the elitreans able to stand ethiopians ? they all heard the same knowhow about war . i respect the nigerian army , but when i compare the resources and the economic stature of the country they still lag behind . because there biggest threat is the north, these are countries armed to middle east starndards . while i appreciate the role nigeria has played to keep that region stable politicaly , it needs to put its house in order , it would be much more bigger tragedy if the big boy gets in problem with his own house , with the changing geopolitical factors it is much safer to have external problems rather than internal ones. what i mean is that these groups that we hear about like bukho harram cu one day be favoured by turn of events and create problem that cud disentergrate that country .
Despite the pretentious military bravado from behind his desktop, the most SILLY thing which anyone has so far said here is that “Nigeria cannot project power behind her borders”. It shows that he was not even part of the UNAMSIL contingent to Sierra Leone. So much for hot air.
Cote d’ Ivoire is THREE countries distant from Nigeria. When her government which was sympathetic to Liberia’s Charles Taylor denied Nigerian C-130 Hercules planes overflying rights as they made to resupply Nigerian ECOMOG forces, NAF jets were scrambled and they FORCIBLY escorted the planes through CIV airspace. In 2005, President Gbagbo AGAIN requested for NAF jets to beef up his regime’s capabilities.
ECOMOG is universally acknowledged ashaving been the FIRST successfully mounted tri-service projection of power beyond a nation’s borders which to ever take place in Black Africa. The Nigerian Air Force used C130s, G222s, Pumas and Alpha jets while the Navy deployed THREE French and German-made missile craft and a LST in support of army operations. In case you do not know as usual, the nearest point in Nigeria to Liberia is a FULL 1,000 miles away.
If you dunno, only ASK rather than come talking blubber!
As for the one flapping thick lips about training, this is the LATEST addition to the repertoir.
Leadership (Abuja)
Nigeria: Army Establishes Counter-Terrorism Centre
Isaiah Benjamin
25 June 2010
Kaduna — The upsurge terrorist organizations worldwide, the problem of militancy in the Niger-Delta and the proliferation of fundamentalist religious groups which are breeding the culture of impunity to achieve their economic, political or religious objectives have reinforced the importance of counter terrorism training in Nigeria.
The Nigerian Army, therefore, in the bid to fulfil her constitutional responsibilities of national security, has established a counter-terrorist and counter-insurgency centre in Jaji, Kaduna State to train Nigerian Army personnel on counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency skills.
Performing the commissioning of the temporary site of the counter terrorist and counter-insurgence centre and the foundation stone laying of the permanent site at the Jaji Cantonment in Kaduna State, the Minister of Defence, Prince Adetokunbo Kayode (SAN), commended the Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Abdulrahman Danbazau for the initiative.
In terms of experience, skills repertoir and dynamism and constant updating, hmmm…..!
Another brand-new FIELD training centre
Daily Trust (Abuja)
Nigeria: Defence Academy to Establish Desert Training Base in Yobe
Hamza Idris
24 June 2010
Damaturu — The Nigerian Defence Academy (NDA) is to establish a permanent training base along the desert area of Gashua and Yusufari Local Government Areas of Yobe State for the training of its cadets on how to endure war and peace keeping in difficult terrains.
The Commandant of the Academy, Major General Mahmud Yerima, stated this in Damaturu when he paid a courtesy visit on Governor Ibrahim Gaidam yesterday.
He said the training tagged, “Exercise Desert Fox”, was initiated by the NDA last year following discoveries that despite elaborate training for cadets, most of them find it difficult to cope with challenges of peace restoration in desert prone war zones like Darfur in the Sudan.
Yerima who called on the Yobe State government to allocate land to the NDA for the establishment of the base said cadets of Regular Course 57 of the academy were participating in the five-day training which ends Friday.
Governor Ibrahim Gaidam thanked the NDA for selecting Yobe for the annual training and directed the chairman of Bade Local Government Area to allocate a land for the establishment of the permanent base.
“I commend the academy for being a central pillar in the provision of qualitative professional training for the officers of the Nigerian Army, Navy and Air Force since its establishment in 1964,” the governor said.
I have to admit i didnt read much of what you just said. All i see is you quoting verbatim what a bunch of politicians said. FYI politics and military dont mix. Thats oil and water man. Am not going to argue on the merits of the chadian or ghanian armed forces. what the fuck for? Coz unlike you i am not a couch potato with nothing better to do than surf the web for unverifiable info. What i know is scimitars and scorpions are in teh same family as the saladin…we have saladins they are old!
What i pride myself in is our ability to scout potential threats beforehand and take them out…tactically. Why waste a whole brigade and millions when something can be done covertly.
BEEG EAGLE,
Yes i was not part of UNAMSIL and i have not claimed so. Read my post again, where did i say that?
So the Jaguars are in storage? What for if you cannot use them? Why don’t you just retire them just like South Africa did with the Cheetahs? Aren’t you hanging onto them for lack of spares whilst hoping that something might fall through and keep them airborne again? See you cannot even maintain your birds. What a hopeless lot you are.Our birds may be old but we still have them flying. We are not alone. A number of countries still fly their older jets. China just retired their F-6(MiG-19) fleet just this year after more than 43 years in service. I know you will call this drivel again- typical Nigerian ego.
I still repeat that the Nigerian military’s inventory is obsolete and very rusty at best. If you don’t believe this go to Janes defense weekly and read again the page on procurement for Nigeria. It was updated recently. Incidentally it is you who has been quoting Janes to back your claims. How come you have not read anything on procurement for Nigeria? Or you were just blowing hot air hoping that we could not verify things there on account of it being subscription only material?
And yes, before i forget, Which are these wars that Nigeria have gone to? The Biafrian civil war? This is what you are quoting?Get real. Give us a war fought between Nations. Just like us, you have not fought a war since independence unless you tell me which country you fought. We are even better we fought the Somalian Shifta.
last time i checked, the air force of ivory coast had no plane to fly their name. so is it meant to impress when you boast your capacity to overfly an air forceless country? The fact that you should face BEEG EAGLE is that NIGERIA HAS NEVER BEEN INVOLVED IN A LARGE SCALE CONFLICT where it was necessary to activate ALL OF ITS FORCES AND RESERVES. We in Kenya to have not had the misfortune to do that either. as far as i’m concerned, degrees or no degrees, Nigeria is just as naive as Kenya when it comes to a real WAR. Mobiliing you army against rebels who do not know or care about battlefield maneouvers, protecting of bases, airspaces. Guys who cannot call in close fire support e.t.c. it really gives you nothing to boast about. it’s equal to an experienced policeman boasting to a freshly commisioned one on how pickpockets fear him.
BEEG EAGLE,
by the way are the Nigerian army Vickers mk3 still operatonal?
@Olekoima. I do not HAVE to IMPRESS any of you for any reason. In terms of men, material and MILITARY training institutions or combat experience, there is NO BASIS WHATSOEVER for any comparison between the Nigerian Army and Kenya Army. We have no point to prove to you. Kenya’s is a home-bound constabulary who do not even have the balls to make a stand for a Migingo island, a 1 hectare strip of land contested by Uganda? The UPDF station a 130mm gun on it and the Kenya Army are in retreat?
If you guys do not know, only last October the Nigerian Chief of Army Staff announced the fact Special Vehicle Plant of the Nigerian Army had just completed the induction of and/or refurbishment of 400 tanks, APCs and IFVs. This was at about the same time as 235 trucks were delivered to the NA.
http://forum.cybereagles.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=140686&p=2447105&hilit=Nigerian+Army+refurbished+400+armoured+vehicles#p2447105
The SPV was established as an assembly line for Steyr APCs and these past few years, Messrs Marshpearl of Ireland have in conjunction with NA Engineers been upgrading Scorpion light tanks there. If you need proof, ASK me or hit the web. I just gave you a name.
@jasiri. You probably checked a very long time ago. Cote d’Ivoire had Alpha jets ever before Kenya got her Hawks and since the Civil War started in Sept. 2002, she has acquired used MiG 23 and Su-25 jets from Eastern Europe. The Su-25s were later destroyed on the ground by French jets in retaliation for an attack on their positions. Check the facts.
And no Nigeria NOWHERE as naive as Kenya ARE.
The Nigerian Civil War had the Biafran Armed Forces deploying even 105mm artillery guns, small MINICON trainer aircraft configured for ground attack (like the Libyans did with the SF 260W in Chad and like the Colombians still do with the ALX Super Tucano) and defecting Biafran naval officers even escaped from Nigerian service with a Ford-Class SDB(NNS Ibadan) which was larger than ANY vessel in the Kenya Navy inventory as we speak. So Biafra had a triservice military and werewithal which none of the rebel armies between Somalia and DR Congo have EVER dreamt of laying hands on. Time to pack it in.
Somebody lie to me again, the Shifta, the FDLR, ADF and LRA have ever carried out air attacks? For the record, Biafra carried out the first air attack of the War and they even killed members of the German Technical Training Team deployed to Kaduna at the time in one attack!
The brief and swift border war with Chad involved armour and MiG jets and in the Bakassi Peninsula, Cameroon ONLY turned to legal option when it was clear that it could not prise away the territory by force. For the avoidance of doubt, in August 2008 Nigeria withdrew from all of 90% of the peninsula. You can only withdraw from a place which was under occupation in the first place. That amounts to stating the obvious. Cameroon ONLY acquired Soltam(ex-US M114) 155mm howitzers in response to the battering which her troops took from Nigerian artillerymen. The Bakassi conflict involved naval and amphibious assaults, air strikes and artillery duels. Cameroon have a triservice military.
@D-the work-at-home busy bee. Truth is, you actually KNOW NOTHING to say. That is why cannot say anything beyond spewing expletives and attempting to teach me time mgt. Scimitars and Scorpions are of the same vintage as Saladins? The Scorpion and Scimitar were ACTUALLY introduced as REPLACEMENT for the Saladin. The Saladin went into production in 1959-60 while the first Scorpion were delivered in 1972.
For sentimental reasons, the NA retains ONLY 16 Saladin AFVs and those are the very late models. The Saladin went out of production in the 1980s whereas the British Army still field Scimitars as we speak. Some of you appear to be forest rangers rather than soldiers.
As for the Jags, those and the MBBs are in storage just in case there is an instant need to shore up the numbers, depending on the type of altercation. If you ask me, new jets will come ever before that unlikely possibility arises. They are probably never gonna be fielded ever again.
@ALL of YOU. Quite a shameless motley – going from training to arsenal to combat experience in an unproductive rigmarole which has you sounding more ridiculous by the minute. Go and look for your equals. Nigeria is NOT one of them.
MIGHTY KENYA ARMY CANT EVEN MAKE A STAND FOR ITS CITIZENS. The only reason why the Nigerian Army went into the Bakassi Peninsula and successfully held onto it for FIFTEEN YEARS was in defence of the interests and well-being of Nigerian citizens domiciled there.
READ:
Twelve Kenyans Missing at Disputed Island
2009-04-17 02:21:22
Xinhua
Twelve Kenyan fishermen have gone missing and are said to be in custody of Ugandan soldiers manning the disputed Migingo Island in western Kenya.
Sources said the missing fishermen were in a group of 24 Kenyans arrested by heavily armed Ugandan UPDF soldiers who have sealed off all entries to the island.
According to Muhuru Bay Councilor Tobias Warentho, the fishermen are said to have been arrested on Wednesday as they were going on with their fishing activities.
Twelve of them were temporarily detained in the lake, relieved of their catches, and fuel drained from their boats before being left inside the lake forcing them to row to the shore.
Warentho said some of the fishermen said they had been tortured by the Ugandans. The 12 fishermen who were still missing by Thursday afternoon were said to be detained at a tiny cell on the island. Reasons for the arrests were not yet clear.
The news of the arrests came as angry youths in Kisumu town tried to barricade the Kisumu-Busia road to block Ugandan trucks from using the road over the Migingo row.
Kisumu police chief Simon Kiragu said the youths tried to block the road at Kachock but were dispersed by police. The youths, most of them taxi operators, said they would stop movement of Uganda bound goods through Kisumu.
The Ugandan soldiers are also now forcing Kenyans operating businesses on the island to display portraits of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni instead of that of Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki.
Besides the portrait, they also want the island renamed Kaguta, after Museveni’s middle name. “Things have suddenly changed. This people appear to be preparing for war,” said Mark Ouma, a fisherman.
In Muhuru, Warentho said hundreds of fishermen held demonstrations to protest the arrest of their colleagues and illegal occupation of Migingo by Ugandan forces.
[b]”This is just another way of frustrating the Kenyans to make them leave the island,” Warentho said, adding that cases of fishermen being detained on the lake and losing the catch had been on the increase since the Ugandans begun their occupation of the island[/b].
Warentho has now appealed to the Kenyan government to help in tracing the missing fishermen saying it was causing great worry to their families.
“We are still not yet aware of where our brothers are,” he said, adding that if the Kenyans had committed any offence, they had to be held in the country and charged in Kenyan courts.
[b]Ugandan securities have always arrested Kenyans and moved them over to Bugiri district, over 200 kilometers away where some of them have been charged in the Ugandan courts with trespass[/b].
Kenyan lawmaker representing the region, Edick Anyanga has in the meanwhile angrily reacted to the news of arrest, terming it as “unacceptable”. Speaking on phone, Anyanga said it was time Kenyan security authorities took a “decisive” action against the Ugandans to stop the arrests ion the Kenyans operating on the island.
“The country’s first and foremost duty is to protect its citizens,” Anyanga said.
At the same time, the six to six curfew imposed a day ago still stands as the Ugandans continue to flex their muscle on the island.
[color=#FF0000][b]This follows a meeting held on the island between a Ugandan army Brigadier who is in charge of the island and fishermen operating on the island. Under the new rules, occupants of the island will be expected to remain in doors from six in the evening until six in the morning the following day. The soldiers, who are armed with machine guns and artillery among other weapons moved in on Tuesday morning and surrounded the entire island, sealing off all the entry routes[/b][/color].
According to the local Beach Management Unit official Juma Ombori, the action has caused a lot of panic among the fishermen making it unable for them to go on with their normal fishing activities.
“It is impossible to go on with our activities when the entire island is sealed with armed soldiers,” Ombori said, adding that the island was like a battle zone. Ombori also criticized the decision to put a time limit saying the action will greatly affect fishing on the island.
He said some types of fish were only caught at night and telling the fishermen to be in the houses by six in the evening was tantamount to killing their business.
Ugandan soldiers have also introduced new charges to Kenyan fishermen who must now pay 500 shillings (about 6.3 U.S. dollars) daily for docking their boats on the beaches. Those who refused to pay the charges have already been notified to either leave the island for “Kenya” or put up with the Ugandans rules as they were in a “Ugandan territory”.
Speaking immediately after the new charges were announced, Ombori said the Kenyan fishermen will however not pay the charges because there was an agreement that one was to pay anything until the ownership issue was resolved.
@BEEG EAGLE. First i wish to ask you to only post links that are accessible. All the links you have posted so far require one to be a registered member first before opening them. I’ am not interested in being a member of your blog.
The Migingo row which you have elaborately dwelt on is a non issue. We saw no reason to go to war with our brothers in Uganda and mess up with regional trade that the two countries are very mutually dependent on. There was always a better way to deal with the matter and i’ am sure you will agree with me that we were right in exercising restrain.Nevertheless we are always ready to defend our own when all else fails.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Migingo_Island
I had posted links to back my arguments above about the Kenyan and Nigerian armed forces. However they are still undergoing moderation 24 hours later. Let’s wait and see if they will be published.
Finally it is not in my nature to bash any country’s military, but i nonetheless expect people to post accurate information devoid of exaggerated and non existent capabilities. Besides, our attempts to point weaknesses in any country’s military should not draw any wrath. Kenyan military too has its fair share of weaknesses. Someone must point this out for correction.
Let’s all argue like professionals.
Believe me, I am not in anyway interested in increasing site traffic to my blog or to Cybereagles. Those are already inundated with subscriptions.
I have ALWAYS been ready to keep this low-keyed and balanced but when someone decided to get personal with me, matters had to fly off the handle. The first person who began the “my country vs yours” thingie was a Kenyan. You can scroll through this thread if you need any proof of that.
Finally, why do you all quote Wiki like it is the gospel truth? In terms of info which can be obtained from manufacturers such as technical details of weapons systems, they can be quite accurate but with matters of subjective interest such as this, an open source reference such as Wiki is hardly tenable.
As a matter of fact, I recall that an online magazine in North America where I am a Contributing Writer expressly forbade ANY and ALL references to Wikipedia.
HAS ANYONE SEEN THIS – RISING TENSIONS BETWEEN UGANDA AND RWANDA?
The Monitor (Kampala)
Uganda: Rwanda Increases Troops At Border
Robert Muhereza
28 June 2010
The Uganda Peoples Defence Force has called for calm following the heavy deployment of troops by Rwanda at its border with Uganda.
The UPDF 2nd Division spokesperson, Capt. Robert Kamara, said Uganda’s border with Rwanda is safe.
“The UPDF is not bothered by the deployments and the movements of the Rwanda army because we don’t control them. Ours is to guarantee the security of our people by ensuring that our border is safe. There is no need for any worry or panic,” Capt. Kamara said at the weekend.
Panic
The Chairman of Butanda Sub-county in Kabale District, Mr Banett Champion, yesterday said the recent deployment of the Rwandan troops near the border has caused panic among residents.
“Hundreds of Rwandan soldiers are seen patrolling along the border in the areas adjacent to my sub-county. I was told that in the past they used to carry out their night patrols at 8pm but now they are doing it at 6pm. The people here are worried,” Mr Champion said.
The Kabale deputy Resident District Commissioner, Mr Shafique Ssekandi, said the deployment of Rwandan troops on the border is the right of the Rwandan government that should not scare the Ugandans.
“Don’t be scared of the Rwandan deployment because they are doing it on their land,” Mr Ssekandi said.
Bee eagle Do you read the news and understand the information that it intendeds to give or to you read the headline, skim through the article and come up with your own conclusion? Why are you making the above story a UG VS Rwanda thing which it is not? Why are you trying to create a crisis where none exists? I have never understood the thinking of you West Africans. The Rwandese troops that are at the boarder with UG are to capture some thugs who have been trying to destabilize Rwanda in the last few months in case they try to escape that way. This got nothing to do with UG. (And that’s why if you had read the article and understood it you would have seen the paragraph where a UG captain asked the civilians not to mind what was going on). You and your kind need to wake up and stop living a life of aggression and extreme paranoia always thinking your neighbor is planning something evil against you
Good point Tororo. Frankly speaking we East Africans do not foresee the possibility of conflicts among East African states any time soon. We are moving towards integration hence conflict is not an option.Rwanda is preparing for an election and naturally they will not want to leave anything to chance. This kind of ‘insecurity’ is common among serving African leaders. They always see enemies all over.
@BEEG EAGLE,i do not always quote Wikipedia. Scroll up and read my other posts. I merely did that in my previous post to reinforce my argument on the Migingo saga. I can quote a different link if you like, but the message is the same.
By the way BEEG EAGLE, Jasiri had asked you a question. Do you still maintain the Vickers mk III MBTs in the Nigerian army inventory? or are they retired?
NO, the Nigerian Army have NOT retired the Vickers Mk.3 tanks. They are called the Eagle in Nigeria. When sanctions were slammed against us in 1992, deliveries of the Mk. 3 which first entered NA service in the early 1980s ceased.
With the return of democratic rule in 1999, supplies of Western-made hardware(French and British armour and Italian SP arty) resumed.
Before 2000, the NA had taken delivery of
Vickers Mk 3 main battle tanks – 97
Scorpion light tanks – 100
Panhard VBL scout cars – 10
Palmaria 155mm SP Arty – 25
Bofors FH-77A 155mm towed howitzers – 24
With the end of sanctions and the lifting of arms embargoes, additional deliveries in the 2001-2006 epoch raised the total holdings for same to :
Vickers Mk 3 main battle tanks -170 (63 mo’ units delivered)
Scorpion light tanks -150 (50 more units delivered)
Palmaria 155mm SP Arty -50 (25 more units delivered)
Panhard VBL M11 scout cars – 72 (62 more units delivered)
Entirely new to the inventory and acquired from the same sources during the corresponding 2001-2006 period were:
105mm artillery- OTO MELARA L6 105mm/14 – 18 units
155mm artillery- FH-77 B05 L52 – 48 units
Tororo, my caption “RISING TENSIONS BETWEEN KENYA AND UGANDA” ended with a “?”. That suggests that I asked a qwuestion rather than made an assertion…as you go pontificating about nothing. Maybe you should remove the beam in your bloodshot eyes before you attempt to take out the speck in mine.
the above items are thrush vise vie your G.D.P
REALLY? Typically African. What is eating you up this time?
FYI, the FH-77B 155mm is what the Indian Army fielded as MAINSTAY in the Kargil War against Pakistan in 1999. The main scout car deployed by the French in Afghanistan is the Panhard VBL.
You wanna know users of the Scorpion light tank who have larger GDPs than Nigeria? BELGIUM,CHILE,IRAN,MALAYSIA,NEW ZEALAND,PHILIPPINES SPAIN,THAILAND,VENEZUELA .
Countries such as Indonesia even have their light tank arsenal dominated by the PT-76 which is a 76mm-armed unit whereas the scorpion is a 90mm-armed unit.
You wanna know countries which larger GDPs than Nigeria which field the Panhard VBL? France, Indonesia, Mexico.
Thanks a bunch for being so aware.
Beeg eagle – Exactly my point. Why raise a question as one posed by your capitation despite you reading the story (if you did??) It says there are no such developments by the other side and this was just a security measure by one state and you still let you mind wonder off into the unthinkable!? Like I said this is only characteristics of west African people; always thinking about the evil (imagined never the less) that’s about to be committed to them and how more evil they should get to get back at the neighbors. You people are yet to mature.
Tororo, ANY build-up of forces across an international frontier is bound to elicit the same question. Your West African generalization is neither here nor there. It is another poor attempt at making this an East Africa v West Africa. It is a sinking ship which you should disembark immediately. If you were mature YOURSELF, you would not categorize any entire region based on questions raised by one person.
Bee eagle I did not just come up with this conclusion out of the blue. There is a big number of West Africans in new York and from observing them I have been able to deduce that you people display tendencies that are not seen anywhere in East, central or southern Africa. You are overly aggressive for no known reason. (what is it? The foo foo?) I worked in NYC for sometime; which has a big population of all sorts of people from all over the world, but the anomalous ones happened to be west African. It’s a truly a case of trying to fit a round peg into a square hole, totally atypical. When I was in college and I let some of them know that I was African, they always asked me why I hang out with African Americans talking about how they will kill me, rob me or get me on drugs (see always assuming the worst of other people). So I think I have study you people long enough to know your predisposition
MY guess is kagame is not taking any chances in case there are problems arrizing from the upcoming elections …whereby museveni might send in his boys to thrash rioters like he did elsewhere in 2007/8
May be ,but sample this response:-
http://allafrica.com/stories/201007010009.html
What is going on here?
THIS is not surprising.,..it seems the KAGAME boys have SOME information that the general public does not.
FROM KABALE town centre to the GATUNA border crossing for both countries is about 19 MILES and then from there to KIGALI is only about 39MILS of steep mountain sides roads and valleys similar to the escarpment areas in Kenya..SO BY MASSING TROOPS IN THIS AREA in advance ..it makes it easy to defend in case of some serious developements from the Ugandan side.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_in_Rwanda
THE EXACT distances are in less than my estimations on the previous post.
HOWEVER I KNOW THE AREA very well as i operated on this route as a relief transport security co-ordinator for safe and secure conveyance of relief goods and other high value items between MOMBASA ,NAIROBI,MALABA,BUSIA,KAMPALA MBARARA,KABALE.GATUNA and KIGALI transport corridor.
so lets keep an eye on this and see how it will pan out
FOREIGN AGENTS INVOLVED IN SHOOTING OF RWANDAN GENERAL?
I know well this area, worked off it / studied it many years. Egress by UPDF through Kabale/Gatuna to Kigali, with the sort of TOL that UPDF presently musters, is virtually impossible. The typography and possible routes of an aggressor-entry is incredible difficult, requiring an air-lift capacity to rapidly move aggressor units around which UPDF does not have at present by a long shot. I can defend Kigali from-depth, against anything UPDF can throw against me, with a half-battalion of properly motivated and led troops with little more than anti-personal tactics. In very short order. Shut it off completely. Don’t get carried away with this suppositions about “something coming through to Kigali from Kabale” during the coming General Election. The RDF as presently constituted is simply the visible statement of the Monopoly and propensity to large-scale organized Violence by the Ruling elite in Kigali. It cowers the population and stifles active dissent. It insulates the Ruling Class from possible violent backlash by their populace by their strangle-hold on all instruments of Violence. It allows for the lopsided writing and interpretation of Local History that guarantees a generational hold on the societal privileges that result in this re-worked Social fabric. Consequently, and like the UPDF, the RDF interprets and projects this politics by visible abrupt deployments that reinforce the re-worked Social order. So that while as an Armed Group should express National Values and Aspirations, the RDF espouses the Parochial wishes of the Ruling Elite in Kigali, and is it’s raison d’être. Now, due to the proximity to the more stable and expansive border of Uganda of the resentful disenfranchised disempowered Majority HUTU, there exists a real likelihood of their rejection of this enforced status quo in the run-up to / during / after the general elections. ERGO, the RDF is deployed to of remind this population of who holds the monopoly and propensity to massive organized Violence in this piteously ravaged country. You will discover that in the whole of Rwanda at this time, night patrols have been beefed up and increased with instructions to greater visibility. There is therefore no threat from Uganda that is visible at this present moment, guys.
Ole Nkarei, i understand the Kenyan peace keeping contingent saw some action in sierra Leone…any idea how this was like?
I heard once that UPDF tried to infiltrate Rwanda in 2001 but fared miserably and were repulsed.
M7 then panicked and wrote to Tony Blair asking for military aid to hold off a Rwandese invasion.
I don’t think they will try again.
Nothing of the sort took place, Mugwiira. Not even an inkling of it in circles I am in.. the posturing of both UPDF and RDF on this Border are merely shadow-boxing, nothing more. Remember they are both Political Outfits that project the exclusivity to Official Organized Violence of the Ruling Classes in both Countries. Even the spate in Kisangani was not sanctioned and more of a falling-out of Adjunct Sector-Command – Court-Marshalls followed. Egress into Rwanda? Not one inch since 1996 when they fell out over M7 trying to remote-control Rwanda after they took Kigali together in 1994.
AS indicated earlier by some other blogers ..it is a very difficult and almost impossible task to military get to kigali via this gatuna/kabale /kigali route …YOUR ONLY OPTION is full air borne assault using troops like what Kenya has in the 20 para batalion or the rangers to drop them behind enemy lines and work their way by cutting supply roots ..at the same time using drones to spot enemy positions and then interdict those with precision bombing..before moving in with a well protected infantry armour….i dont think either OF THESE two countries ug/rwanda have the capability to carry out massive airborne troops movement at the moment.
does updf has special forces like the ones in kenya army?
Commando bn and a recently trained abn bn. However, these are too busy “looking for Kony” and protecting M7’s hydrocarbon treasures.
Remember tho’ that without arty and CAS, SPECOPS are as good as useless against any serious infantry force.
Air defense must also be 100% neutralized. Exposed to AA arty fire, abn troops will be dead on arrival.
Actually most of the so called commando units form the largest potion of M7 presidential guard..which seems like a real misuse of resources
others are seen moving around kampala protecting the top cream of the military brass i mean last time i was in entebe i was simply very amused to see a two vehicle convoy
/cavalcade of a top Ugandan general being followed by an army pick up with guys on top carrying heavy machine guns….acting as the generals personal security on the streets as he went about his business.
Apparently this was a normal thing in Kampala as well.since the public there are used to these kind of scenes
THIS is not the way to use an elite force man ..maybe things have changed.
About the special forces
http://www.afrika.no/Detailed/19416.html
@ SPIDERman – this misuse of resources is dictated by tribal politics. These days, not even the PGB, not even the Bahima are trusted – only a small clan group related to Janet Museveni.
And for the VIP protection includeing the president himslef is being done by the police since April of this year. The president’s protection Still have some former PGB who hard specialized skills, this is untill their police replacements have been fully trained
@Tororo
You see man this is exactly what i meant…. by concentrating power around his close relatives M7 is laying the ground to stay in power until they kingdom come
WHY does he promote a chap from a leutenant to major straight…then to leutenant colonel within seven to eight years
Special FORCES by name are supposed to be used in better ways than this
PROTECTING the president should be a primary civilian run outfit and special forces left to do what they train for ..warfare…i really dont know …the goings on here but last time i checked the vip protection unit in Kenya is run by the police under the GSU. oops who by recent reports are complaining of lack of modern equipment to compete with their counterparts in the RDU of THE AP…however they are good in what they do and the training they get is effective.
Mugwiira
You are reading too much into the tabloid papers in UG or are spending a whole lot of time in the bars, the issue of VIP protection is as it is supposed to be secretive and highly forceful by nature even in the US. What do you think is inside those SUVs in Obama’s motorcade? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGGPeLRhwss&feature=related
The problem with some people is that if they are restricted access to a certain area, then that person doesn’t like them or does not trust them. Heck even the pope has “mean” security so why shouldn’t a president?
Spiderman
VIP protection was moved to the police under the president’s orders. About the rapid ascension of Lt.col muhoozi, it is a combination of both training and “Technical know who”. He is a Sundhurst and Leavenworth graduate in precisely these kind of missions though he got to go there probably because of his status but this sort of thing happens every where in the second and third world countries.
@ Tororo – you have misread my point. When you draw forces from a single unit which has a very specific purpose to all kinds of missions, including those which have nothing to do with military service at all (like close protection) – what does that tell you?
To me, it shows that armed forces and security forces in general cannot be trusted. It cannot mean anything else.
Concerning your link – did you ever see Obama being protected by a squad soldiers in a Humvee with a GPNG mounted on it? No. One, it gives a very wrong image of a country at war. Two, a GPMG is a tactical weapon. How are you going to use it on a city street? Just tell me.
What do you think a US Delta Force soldier will do if he is told to do VIP protection? He will resign. Such an order will be a sign of disrespect towards his profession.
As for Muhoozi. “He is a Sundhurst and Leavenworth graduate in precisely these kind of missions”. Really? Won’t you tell us which missions exactly?
At Sandhurst he merely graduated from a Commissioning Course.
At USAWC, they don’t teach you how to fight or command troops. It’s a strategic studies school which trains both civilian and military students in policymaking.
Muhoozi’s parents may be impressed. I’m not.
OK ..let as urgue for the sake of it..AS YOU know FORMER president moi WAS for 24 years the undisputed strongman in the region but even one of his sons despite being nursed along limped up to rank of major was never put in charge of anything..eventauly leaving to pursue business interests
kibaki has sons who cannot make any military commission because they are not interested
AN exception in Kenya occurred recently when a brigadier had to be promoted to Major General when the then brigadier ALI mohamed was moved from the army to head the Kenya police force despite opposition from the police rank and file after THE NARC government of Kibaki came to power
Reasoning here was that since the other heads of service are all generals it would be deaming for the presidency to have Brigadier reporting direct to the CinC as expected of the police commissioner
IT so happens that Major general Ali could not there fore return to the army after being removed from the police service …since his ranking was now a political in nature
HE now runs the postal service as POST MASTER GENERAL as a civillian with more parks than if he was to be in the army
The current police commissioner is a career police cadet having previously also run the paramilitary crack GSU unit of the police force.
Cronysim….happens all the time in Africa. Remember the time a british prince joined the ranks and even did a tour in Afghanistan? Now if this chap kept on with the trend and rose higher there wouldnt be much objections, but Lt. Col Muhoozi’s case is clearly what it is, first off am sure some other gentleman in the UPDF was more qualified to be sponsored to those fancy military colleges. It sure would be refreshing if Muhooozi did lead a unit against the LRA. Even a “soft” humanitarian relief security contingent would look good. But he has no real battle experience to speak of, most of the men under his command are sharpened killers. They may not say it but am sure some of them are still not happy with their commander.
Last time, I checked Muhoozi was leading an assault on cattle rustlers in Karamoja. That and activities such as close protection of the President(remember the episode at the time of the 2009 shootings in Buganda) are SCARCELY the brief of Special Forces.
Hopping from 2nd Lt to Lt Colonel in 8 years is also not PROPER. M7 has had nearly 25 years to standardize and foreclose possibilities which allow for the emergence of baby generals or colonels. Things ought to have become more standardized by now.
Kenyan Military Forces Deployed to Somali Border
SHABELLE
11 July 2010
BALAD-HAWO ( Sh. M. Network) – Many Kenyan military forces were deployed to the border between Somalia and Kenya and closed the movement of the traffic between Mandere and Balad-Hawo districts near the border, witnesses said on Sunday.
Reports say that the Kenyan officials said that the closure of the border between the two neighboring Somalia and Kenya was aimed to assure and tighten the security of the borer between the two countries.
The step closed the movement between both towns of Mandera and Beled-hawo towns had affected the movement of the traffic, business and people that often travel between the towns in Somalia and Kenya.
More other Kenyan troops had also been reportedly deployed to the border that Kenya has with Dobley town of Lower Jubba region in southern Somalia which is a stronghold of Al-shabab organization.
Balad-hawo and Dobley districts are in southern of Somalia and controlled by administrations loyal to Al-shabab in Jubba regions.
IT is time that the east african countries do something once and for all against the terorists in somalia NOW. NOW NOW when there is good will from the international community.
how long do they allow these thugs to murder drug deal and smuggle arms into our countries and endagering our people?
kenya ,uganda,tanzania ethiopia have the capacity to wipe out these terrorists without any outside help
GOD KNOWS WHAT THEY ARE WAITING FOR..?more innocent lives to be lost?
News reports suggest that M7 is willing to send 20K troops to Somalia; this amounts to a declaration of war.
The UN has (in principle) agreed to take over the peacekeeping, although nobody wants to send troops there.
What do you guys predict will be the fallout from the al Shabaab bombings in Kampala?
AT LEAST M7 HAS THE GUTS OTHER LEADERS in the region dont have ..alshabab needs to be crushed by all means and Kenya has shown weakness in this while they suffer the most through various criminal activities by these “somalis.”
M7 cannot send 20K troops to Somalia. UPDF is already overstretched. They will be hard-pressed to even come up with the 2,000 agreed upon by the IGAD – which they’ll have to do as I don’t think anyone else will want to send their troops to beef up the AMISOM now that the price of fighting somebody else’s wars is clear to everyone.
There’s no way “the terrorists” can be simply “wiped out”. The Somali situation is a political problem, not just a security problem. The sad (for me) fact is that for a large part of the Somali population (most non-Majerteen Darood, Rahanweyn and Hawiye) the Shabaab are now the most credible political force capable of providing internal peace, justice and national dignity. The US has not managed to come up with any better alternative.
Mugiira How could you!? To even insinuate that Al shabbab is liked by anyone except the people within the outfit is ridiculous. Do you know these people are trying to force every one back into the Stone Age? – No TV, Radio, Singing basically any form of entertainment or education is prohibited. And you dare Support them with a flimsy excuse that this is some thing political? Right now I find myself wishing you were at that rugby ground and then we would have seen your inclination when a bomb tears off your arm or Leg. By the way what are you talking about that the UPDF is out stretched? Do you know there exists a large reserve force? Those that were affected by the retrenchment exercise and besides there are all the Ex-soldiers returning from Iraq? Man……….
@ Tororo – I’m not a Shabaab sympathizer, and I don’t understand how you construe that from my post. Just like you do, I find terrorism deplorable.
However, Shabaab does have considerable political influence especially among the disaffected youths. What you call “Stone Age” I call “nihilism”. In a country which has been torn apart by warlord-led violence for almost two decades everyone who can enforce at least relative peace in the areas which they control easily gets popular support. In a country where traditional nomadic justice is dead, and modern justice doesn’t exist, even the super-hardline sharia justice does have considerable appeal for the people. As for my “dignity” word, I stand by it because it explains why so many Somalis from the US and UK send money to the Shabaab, and some come to fight for them. That’s because the Shabaab’s ability to stay undefeated by the US, the Ethiopians and the AMISOM does give them a (perverted, agree) sense of pride.
You would have noticed that I find such situation “sad”. But if you want to analyze these developments, you cannot allow your righteous indignation cloud your vision. Neither can you afford to rely on the CNN-dominated media which only describe the Shabaab in terms of caricature.
Lastly, while we agree that terror is bad, we should also remember that the bombardments of Dresden, Hiroshima and Nagasaki (all directed against civilians, and civilians only) were nothing but acts of terror. Damn, Nelson Mandela himself was a terrorist! Luckily for him, he wasn’t a very skilful one, so in the end he even managed to become a symbol of peace.
Terror is applying violence to civilians to achieve political/military objectives. It is also a vioaltion of the Laws of War. But tell me which army in Africa respects the Laws of War and never terrorises civilians? UPDF maybe??
I wonder why everyone is so shocked and surprised. The Shabaab vowed to attack Uganda almost a year ago. For myself, since the day the first Ugandan soldier stepped on the Somali soil, I became much more cautious about my movements in Kampala. Let us not pretend that UPDF was “keeping peace” in Somalia rather than simply protecting the CIA-appointed “government”.
Btw, I stay unconvinced that the bombings were done by the Shabaab itself. I don’t think they have such capacity to date; the way everything was planned and executed – doesn’t point to some imported Somalis. The more probable scenario is that these were local guys under overall guidance by some mature foreign jihadis – acting “on behalf” of the Shabaab.
like what Mugwiira says i too dought Shabaab involvement in all this i have posted my comments on Kenya Airforce buys junk fight
More UG soldiers in Somalia, will also mean more potential for contacts with Al shaabab, more civilians casualties, more outcry…ultimately the whole scenario will turn out similar to the Ethiopian invasion and will lead to a sense of hostility with Somalis both at home and in the diaspora, who will feel U.G is now invading Somalia. Bottom line is that the escalation will not stop the fundamentalism but only give it reason to grow and undergo metamorphosis…Irag and Afghanistan are good examples of this state. Ultimately the best solution for Somali is a hard and long process that will involve winning the hearts and minds of Somalis at home and in the diaspora, building a good capable Somali army…the West should help with this, by providing sustainably in terms of pay and upkeep and also arms and capabilities, military analysts say it takes between one and about two years to build the first units of a good fighting army. The countries in the region meanwhile should try and find talking points that will help mobilize the Somali elite towards democracy as peacekeeping efforts are seriously reignited. Once the first units of the Army are in place the process can Slowly be transferred bit by bit to the Somalis. Somali land is proof that Somali can be rehabilitated. Taking Museveni’s approach will only escalate terrorism and lets face it more attacks will eventually hit Ugandan towns and communities in other E.A countries, this is the fodder that the Ugandan opposition and anti-MU7 need. Also I’m sure Ugandans at this point are already scared and another attack will start to cripple trade and social life. I’m not saying that we should not react, if we must project military force it needs to be strategic not a direct confrontation with Al shaabab in the streets of Mogadishu, this wont work. Military operations should focus on strategic moves whenever necessary…e.g. stopping of arms influx, hitting specific Al Shaabab targets and neutralizing their leadership and its support, a lot of intelligence and COIN capabilities are needed at this point ….condolences to our U.G brothers and lets not forget that Kenya is not safe either…..
AM SURPRISED THAT some people are suggesting that the terrorists in Somalia are impossible to defeat.
that is nonsense and a defeatist attitude.
ALL you need is good intelligence to target their leadership and source of funds and arms ETC…AND
GET SEVERAL UAVs and keep round the clock surveillance to target each and any moving technical in their so called ares of operation and soon you will starve them of leadership BY targeted assasination of its leaders
Enforce a maritime and air blockade SO that all planes flying into Somalia are vetted and all ships are also vetted to deliver only essential surplies only
MONITOR all comms coming in and out of Somalia
and lastly send in a properly supported Somali army from all sides so that we have Ethiopians pushing from their side ,Kenyans pushing from their side and Ugandans pushing from the middle
..AND YOU WILL DEFEAT THESE TERRORISTS
..simply declare war on these murderers and lets see how far they can go….
M7 is my guy on this one and i think the alshsbab has started something they cannot finish
Right now Kenya has massed troops along the Kenya Somali border and are only waiting for an excuse to go in fast and furious to get the leadership of these thugs
.and the moment they do anything in Kenya like what they did in Kampala…the Kenyan public will demand action and i can assure you that this time around Kibaki will not just sit and watch.HE will tell the boys to get in …as we already have lingering suspicions that they had something to do with the recent grenade attacks in NAIROBI uhuru park….
we shall never allow this to happen
again….http://secretaryclinton.wordpress.com/2009/09/05/is-this-for-real-i-hope-not/
IT IS TIME we told the public in EAST AFRICA that we are at war with these guys and we should treat them as such enemies of the people…
M7 lead us against these guys and i will pray for god to reward you a thousand times…
Somalia: A time for caution
By Afyare Abdi Elmi (Al Jazeera)
Sending additional forces from neighboring countries into Somalia will only exacerbate the conditions that empowered al-Shabab in the first place ….read more http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2010/07/201071473234683328.html
@stevo
IT IS wrong to sit and wait while these thugs grow stronger
we do not need opinion pieces from sympathizers like the one you have posted above…this a strategy designed to cast doubt into regional governments to indicate that military intervention will not work
The reason Ethiopians failed is because the they were operating as a cover for the US government under g bush war on terror
BUT this time around any intervention under national security for the states in the region is bound to work because the people themselves want action and for to long they have waited and watched as insecurity increases just because of lack of leadership in Somalia
i said it once and ill say it again and stand by it, you simply cannot fight an insurgency with conventional means…cant be done and has never been done, Vietnam, Iraq, Somalia hell even LRA these people are like that seven headed dragon, cut one head off 2 others grow on that same spot. The situation on the ground is that the average Somali is disoriented and has no feeling of hatred towards al shabaab, its not love either…what am saying is they feel the same way the average Nairobian feels towards his/her government. A civilian friend was telling me he would rather have no music on radio than a parliament that thinks only of itself while the citizen suffers.
Anti insurgency can be done successfully in an insurgent style. Take the American approach during the Tet offensive. Instead of bringing in all those battle tanks and gunships try a guerrilla approach like McArthur did. In this case the East African governments should utilize their own indigenous somali population a healthy number of whom are in the armed forces of the countries in question as the spear tip of the anti terrorism war. And while they are at it they should take out those pesky pirates too….total nuisance.
@SPIDERman, Tororo,
I think we are all in agreement that something needs to be done about this Al Shabaab nonsense and more so URGENTLY.
However the method of approach seems to be what we are not agreeing about. Both of you seem to favor a direct military engagement complete with tanks, ACVs and even fighter jets by an allied regional force.
While there is no doubt that we all have this capacity and that Al Shabaab will not have any chance against it, chances for success in this method are quite slim. At best this will end up as protracted war with untold suffering on the civilians.This is because Al Shabaab are not a conventional army that can come out and face another army. They prefer to hide among civilians and often come out at an opportune time to hit and run.
The best way to deal with them therefore is to seal all borders and use intelligence to eliminate their leaders while crippling their source of livelihood and funding. This means for example that we can use the peace keepers to enforce a no fly rule save for humanitarian purposes and also send another force(Navy) to blockade all sea routes so that all sources of arms are blocked.
Needless to say that this should be an effort by all regional countries and not just Uganda and Burundi alone. We should not leave these two countries to shoulder the burden all by themselves.
We need the inputs of Kenya,Tanzania, Rwanda, Sudan and Ethiopia. This is after all a regional and African issue which we should not shy away from. We all have a duty not only to protect our interests but to save lives as well.
the mandate of Ug In Somalia is peacekeeping. Peacekeeping has different rules of engagements. They will need to change it to a peace enforcing mission if they want a fair playing feild. This will take them to the ranks of the Ethiopians. Again its going to be more mess and an up hill task. Who will pay for the ordinance used ? UG tax payers? if you talk about Kenya most of the ordinances is still from the west. it cost in dollars. from the Vickers Mk3 tanks that operate the Rolls-Royce to the AML that operates the Peugeot petrol engine. i agree they is a crises but who will foot this bills?
A times you have to let things mature in its own way. Just like a teenager passing to a phase of childhood to adolescents. Let them fight it out among themselves until they feel the need for a peaceful solution. When the present Gov,t of Somalia come to Nairobi the warlords then had reach that stage of maturity. But concurrently external force came in trying to make a homeland for jihadist, grow poppy and set up training schools. once the Somalia realize the benefits involved in growing poppy they will never turn back or want any authoritative force or a central government ever again. Therefore at the moment what we are doing or how were are playing it is to train more Somalis to go and redeem their country. Train thugs to go and do a thugs job.We hope that in due time they will regain control of the country and since they‘re our boys we can hope for a good regime there after. We have seen positive results of some factions that are making head way. They is no hope for the present Somali Gov’t. This matter needs to be resolved by the bullet rather then by the ballot. External Military forces and aid should come as a guiding partner rather then an occupying force.
P/S
Intelligent reports on the Kampala bombing are pointing toward self perpetuated actions by the UG,s. In short the bombing was done by UG,s. Either by religious lunatics or some force somewhere. Let’s wait and see what unfolds in the days to come.
I wonder why the Americans could not just allow the Islamic union courts (IUC) to run Somalia. They had succeeded in restoring a semblance of peace and government there. What is more, they seemed to enjoy the support of the citizens there.
All of a sudden Ethiopia at the behest of the US rolled in and routed the hapless guys and what do we have now ? A murderous gang.
Of whose benefit was this Ethiopian Invasion? I don’t believe the IUC was any threat to Ethiopia, Kenya or the region as is the case with Al Shabaab now.
Talk of misplaced policies.
The UIC was pushing hard towards Puntland and was making inroads into Ogaden, which provoked Ethiopians.
But amusingly, one prominent reason for the Ethiopian invasion was apparently the antipathy which both Americans and Ethiopians feel towards Sheikh Aweys. I wonder whether they are any more comfortable with the likes of Godane..
guys the key to peace in somalia lies in somaliland. we can send in a regional army, tanks, ships, fighters and all. all they’ll do is finish al-shabab and because of the chaos a new militia will rise. when ethiopia invaded somalia in 06-07, it set free the al-shabab within the ICU. if Uganda invades in ’10 it will set free the global jihadist within the al-shabab. Instead of trainning somali troops we should train somaliland forces. then we invade pacify the country, pull out and leave the somaliland troops to peacekeep and reconstruct. we kill al-shabab and hizb-ul-islam, the somalis unite under one force(somali force) and all of us are happy :-). However if we choose to do it the Museveni way we will be sucked into an insurgency we can’t escape and Iraq will be better than somalia. remeber Somalia’s problem is not military and can’t be solved with guns, it is social and only they can solve it. someone MUST DISSUADE museveni from invading because that wil be exactly what the al-shabab want.
Jasiri, if you bring the Dir from Somaliland to Southern Somalia, you risk an explosive reaction from the Hawiye; all the gains in Ximan & Xeeb and Galmudug will be wasted.
I don’t think the leaders of Somaliland themselves would agree to such a plan.
then we hae to find a way to cut a deal with them. Maybe an EASBRIG prescence in Hobyo, south gaalkayo, dinoowda and bitale (creating a psychological buffer to cut of supplies incase somaliland forces misbehave) while the Dir clean up from beledweyne, Jowhar and badhaaded. after that people hold a federal election and say 4 years later a national election.
then we have to find a way to cut a deal with them. Maybe an EASBRIG prescence in Hobyo, south gaalkayo, dinoowda and bitale (creating a psychological buffer to cut of supplies incase somaliland forces misbehave) while the Dir clean up from beledweyne, Jowhar and badhaaded. after that people hold a federal election and say 4 years later a national election.
and by all means let’s keep American invovlement in Somali neglible if we want to look credible in the eyes of Somalis. i can give the finer details of this to any Kenyan uniform interested.
@ ole Nkarei
I’ve just just noticed that you had replied to my post on Uganda’s planned invasion into Rwanda in 2001, and felt it was necessary to make a follow-up.
What is known for sure is that a plan to attack Rwanda with 3 brigades was drafted by Kazini who mobilized the troops and even moved them to the border. The story even leaked to the press, and was made public by none else than Andrew Mwenda in The Monitor some time in 2005.
However, something went wrong, and the invasion never took place.
I was told once that Ugandan forward recce elements attempted to infiltrate Rwanda, but the RDF managed to deal very decisively with these; upon this, it was realized that the Rwandan intelligence was perfectly aware of the plan, and the whole thing was aborted.
However, I can’t confirm whether the latter piece of information is correct.
The story of M7 complaining to Tony Blair, however, is 100% true. I’m sure of it, and I remember it was even there in the media.
I think an armed presence in the process of retaking somalia is inevitable. Diplomacy alone cannot work in this scenario. What worries me however is how to find an agreeable face that i malleable enough to tow the lines given by whoever topples al shabaab and steadfast enough to curve out and maintain a grip on things on the ground long after the invading forces are gone. This job requires an indeginous somali with strong backing and the skill set to run this hellhole and steer it towards a brighter future.
True however the al shabaab are not a conventional fighting unit and forcing them to come out into the open battle field is impossible. Thats why the leadership needs to be targeted first, the people follow and believe in these charismatic leaders. It is for them and their teachings that they will pick up guns or provide shelter for the common fighter. The foot soldier in the al shabaab is mostly a hated or feared character, these are the ones who carry out outragious deeds against the common somali. Without leadership a collapse from within is inevitable.
TAKING OUT THE LEADERSHIP OF THIS group should be done with surgical precision ….and we should avoid glorifying this like the USA did when hunting DOWN the infamous and later famous generall AIDEED during the ill fated black hawk down incident
I DONT BELIEVE THAT A WHOLY TASKED AND WELL MOTIVATED AFRICAN FORCE CANNOT WIN THIS ..AS SOME VARIOUS BLOGERS ARE TRYING TO URGUE HERE..even some press is showing abvious apathy to any hint of armed intervention as shown here by MUSEVENI
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/africa/Musevenis%20vow%20to%20conquer%20al%20Shabaab%20easier%20said%20than%20done%20/-/1066/959336/-/ktxo8h/-/index.html
WE need to show courage and willingnes to take the fight to these thugs by all means including a three pronged counter insurgency approach from all the borders covering somalia
SOME PEOPLE ARE saying the costs may be too high to bear but to me freedom and our way of life is at stake and we need to take the fight to these guys instead of them bringing the fight to our citizens
we defeated shifta by going for a long time strategy that eventualy ensured that they ran out steam and ideas.
WE simply cannot allow the situation to remain the way it is because we know the repurcussions of allowing a religious fanatism and fundamentalism to grow will simply make our eastafrican people the next frontier of unstable mediocre status quo like middle east is at the moment
ANALYSTS BELIEVE KENYA is the next target and we must not let this become a reality…
this war must be relentless and robust
http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Kenyan-Police-Arrest-Several-Men-For-Uganda-Bombing–98609459.html
HERE are my thoughts and fears for my country and east africans
THE MOST LIKELY WAY THE TERRORISTS will attack Kenya is probably by using a car bomb like they did in 1998
Kenyan security officials must move with speed and vet all jua kali garages and ensure that they are properly regulated and licensed
they should also make sure that fuel trucks only move at night and fuel tanker drivers carry special licenses like here in the UK WITH SPECIAL MOVEMENT PERMITS TO VET OUT WOULD BE SUICIDE BOMBERS
i know this appears like a very tall order but desperate times call for desperate measures
WE CAN DEPLOY
all the city askaris to visit and vet all premises to ensure comformity to safety standards.HAVE ALL MOBLE PHONES REGISTERED TO EACH BUYER so that they may be traced in case of an incident
YOU see ONE of the discovered suicide jackets in Kampala HAD AN ALCATEL mobile phone wired as a REMOTE detonator…AM SURE you only need to identify the IMIE or SIMM of the phone in order to work out where it was bought and which network it was meant to run on and triigger the bomb
we can deploy all the chiefs to supply local inteligence since they know which locals live in Their areas .we can deploy all the OCS to regularly liase with locals in their ares of police jurisdiction to supply information like the same we have in neighbourhood watches here in the UK and lastly we can sensitize wananchi to be very vigilante and report all suspicoius activity without fear of victimization
MAKE use of CCTV a standard procedure in all major public venues like here in the UK WHEREBY no pub can be licensed to operate without cctv installled in place for safety purposes and future investigative activity
IN uganda most pubs and night club joints used to have security guards screening people for weapons at the doors ..and i dont know if this was still standard practice now days…
but am sure the way to disrupt and thwart any terrorist activity is to be on the look out and not to wait to be attacked then reacting…WE must take the fight to these guys and not wait for them to bring the fight to our doors like they have begun…
I agree with spiderman on the point of not letting this issue go much further. But the situation needs to be deascalated faster than it escalates. Thats why i dont fully agree with full deployment of forces inside somalia as part of the 1st step, I say attack on the leaders and key personnel plus a special ops takeover and takedown of major strongholds including training camps. This will show the civilians that its not them against the forces. With that done, the blockade can now take effect simultaneously with the main invasion with the main force securing humanitarian aid channels and distribution on the ground. the final phase could be the trickiest, extracting from somalia and leaving a stable government in place.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-shabab-islamic-militants-20100715,0,323079.story
http://www.iss.co.za/iss_today.php?ID=989
Very well-reasoned, IMHO.
very good points here and more later..thanks @mugwiira
I assume M7’s promises of an offensive against the Shabaab are chest-beating. If they are not, I’m afraid things will GO very wrong. With 5,000 troops, the AMISOM has only managed to control Mogadishu – just because they have a very saturated defense. How are they going to control the Somali countryside, if even Ethiopians did not manage? Then, where are they going to get the intelligence? UPDF has no HUMINT network in Somalia, they are completely dependant on Zenawi and the US. How can you fight your own war, and rely on somebody else’s intel? Isn’t that crazy?
I’m starting to think that the attacks may have been a provocation aimed at luring M7 into Somalia, and thus neutralizing USA’s #1 friend in the region.
I’m sure Mr. Bashir is busy studying his options.
Well,the Ugandans appear determined to do something about this Al Shabaab madness. They are ready to take the war to them.
Museveni is not one to be intimidated. He loathes that kind of thing and will actually respond very decisively on the recent provocation by the Al Shabaab. Whether this achieves the desired results or not remains to be seen. We can only wish him well and accord him every support that we can.I bet he is willing to commit up to 20,000 troops. Uganda has this capacity and i don’t believe they are overstretched as Mugwiira argued above.
Separately though, i think this kind of approach may not achieve much.Uganda with its massive firepower will surely win the battle but lose the war. This is because like Ethiopia before, it will scatter the hapless Al Shabaab in a matter of days and yet end up with a hostile population that will perceive it as an occupying foreign force.What is more another militia will sprout from the blue and convince the population that it is fighting to rid them of foreign occupation. With time the Ugandans will find themselves exhausted and yearning to leave.
What then is the solution?
In my view, we need to convince a Muslim or Arab country to go in and do the actual fighting. In this way they may not risk a backlash since the local militia cannot whip religious sentiments to rally the populace behind them. Once this is done we allow the Somalis to elect a caretaker government which they can all trust. Meanwhile the neighbours help to train a sizeable army say of 20,000 men that will protect the country and the fragile government.We then all bolt out quickly and leave the Somalis to run their affairs, only coming in occasionally with aid to help build back the country.
Sample this:-
http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Uganda ponders unilateral action/-/2558/959464/-/62leef/-/index.html
Sorry the link is incomplete. I will try posting it again.It is not picking.
I THINK THE ethiopians were not intrested in going into the countryside once they dislodged the islamic courts union from mogadishu
they were hoping for public revolt and popular support plus the chipping in of more troops from the au ..but this never happened
due to historical factors based on the ogaden war the somalis looked at ethiopians as invaders….thus the high rate of resistance
BUT WITH UGANDANS AND other AU troops things are diffrent
Okay then, let’s wait and see.
I’ am sure Museveni will be moving in any time soon. At least he has the backing of the East African neighbours who have all promised him support be it intelligence or otherwise.
What do you think of the AU though. I think it is fast becoming a talking shop. IGAD is even doing a much better job.
Uncle Sam also needs to nag the UN to provide the much needed funding. If they are going to spend a whopping $105 billion in Afghanistan alone this year, then surely a mere $1 billion needed for Somalia is nothing in comparison.
By the way if Museveni enters Somalia and conquers it, he will be the undisputed regional strongman. All others risk being branded cowards.He will then become the US blue eyed boy in the region and will be looked upon to provide leadership whenever needed. Man he will have repackaged himself and will be well positioned to even lead an East African federation if this happens to come soon.
As long as the Somali crisis persists, Kenya cannot be safe. Evidently, nor can Uganda (pole sana, my brothers). Or Tanzania, or Rwanda, or Burundi, or Ethiopia…
It is in our national, nay, vital interest to stabilise the situation across the border, by whatever means. A single solution is unlikely to work. We need to use the carrot as well as the stick. And we cannot forget the stick. Extreme prejudice will have to be applied to select individuals, or groups of individuals, and the method will have to be accurate and precise. Brute force will not do it. Specops rather than tanks. Tanks may follow later to keep the peace.
The int’l community (a euphemism for the political agendas of the West) will have to chip in here, big time. Nairobi and Dar came before 911. They plunder our resources from the comfort of their leather settees, amidst clouds of cigar smoke (Cuban, no less) and the whiff of fine Cognac (indubitably French), whilst we die in their proxy wars and our children are starved into oblivion. So they will have to participate with their troops and/or provide their billions. Somalia must find peace and thrive. Or there will no peace for any of us.
On another note, what’s all this about Kenya bashing Uganda bashing Rwanda bashing Tanzania bashing Kenya and so on? Talk about divide et impera. It’s all academic anyway (or should be), and from that perspective it makes a fine debate, though some seem to have taken it rather personally. We are brothers. We might not quite be the EU yet, but the EAC’s a damn fine and noble idea and our only hope for the future. Perhaps we shall in future entice Ethiopia, SS, DRC and, yes, Somalia to march with us into a bright and promising future. Our potential is boundless.
Incidentally, I would like to commend all the fine men (and women?) of the Kenya armed forced who contribute to this blog. I am not of their ilk and cannot contribute to matters technical. However, it is most reassuring to see that we have such an intellectually select and academically proficient officer class as our ngao na mlinzi. If the likes of the venerable ole Nkarei are ‘mere’ majors, what then of our colonels, brigadiers and generals? I am equally confident in our junior officers, NCOs and enlisted men. Keep up the good job, men!
@vitruvian
KARIBU sana to this long running blog which has gone through a series of issues some very emotional and deeply devisive but all in the interest of healthy discussions amongst our men and women
I WOULD LIKE TO CORRECT YOU for now that according to recent developments the venerable ole nkarei has now archived full colonel..and he is somewhere in the field serving our beloved country
AS you have probably seen from my posts i am an ardent proponent of the idea that alshabab needs to be delt with once and for all.
The single most source of insecurity in Kenya is Somalia before 1991 only about 15 percent of crimes in major cities involved guns and mostly crude weapons ..but after the fall of SIAD BARRE and the subsequent repurcussions …90 percent of all crime in Kenya involves firearms both heavy and small these find thier way into Kenya from mostly Somalia
NOW we have the added phenomenon of piracy and…… from from 1998 the terrorism juggernaut
i tell you i was one of the responders to the sight after the1998 attacks in NAIROBI and spend days there seeing the worst of atrocities against civilians..EVEN THE best training does not prepare you for the impact you get when you see mangled remains of women and children who were going about their daily lives and then cut shot by these thugs
THE attacks in Kampala have brought back these memories
and even though i now live in the UK ..i am very upset that the oovernments in the region are not taking decisive steps to deal with this menace…. that is why i applaud M7 WHEN HE TALKS TOUGH .
i know from past and current knowledge of the armed forces in the region especially KENYA,UGANDA,TANZANIA AND ETHIOPIA can all conventionally wipe out this SOMALIA ALSHSBAD problem very easily
THEY only need to have political will and launch a sustained attack on the leadership of these terrorists,target their source of funds, and then give the transitional government support materially while employing a deep counter insurgency campaign against the alshabab plus devide and rule tactics for the next four to five years at least
THE likes of uncle SAM AND EUROPEAN UNION are now very much busy in the middle east to give us greater surpport so we must take the major burden since it our people and way of life that is at risk
My congratulations to Col. Tom ole Nkarei on his new deputation.
I agree that Al Shabaab and their like must be totally wiped out. The problem is that, without proper contingencies, another group will simply emerge in their place, as Al-Shabaab are simply an off-shoot of the ICU.
I have no doubt that the region’s combined forces are militarily capable of wiping out these washenzi, whose numbers are estimated to be well below 10,000. The material cost would be prohibitive but that must be weighed against the human cost to our wananchi, the rising insecurity in our streets, the untapped trade potential (I speak not of miraa) and the prospect of prolonged military engangement should they become entrenched and decide to invite Al Qaeda to permanently settle in EA. But even if such a joint expedition were to be financially viable, the occupation of Somalia would not. We would require massive funding from abroad.
We cannot simply ctrl-alt-delete them without providing for a stable environment that would enable Somalia to rejoin the normal world, begin to function as a state, alleviate the hardships the Somalis have been going through, create employment and educational opportunities for the youth (“al-Shabaab”) who would otherwise be recruited by extremists, etc. That is why I say that we must use the carrot (for the people) and the stick (for Al-Shabaab).
Inaction is not an option. Afghanistan has taken the world’s greatest militaries to task. I’m rather uncomfortable at the thought of Al Qaeda HQ operating in our immediate vicinity. This is a situation that must be prevented from happening. And that will take many billions.
M7 is talking tough, but can he really put his money where his mouth is? Can his 20,000 take out Al-Shabaab on their home soil? The comments above seem to indicate that the UPDF are not exactly equipped to do so. Ethiopia’s (mis)adventure on 2006, with a vastly superior army than2 UPDF and US support, only served to separate the wheat from the chaff. From ICU emerged Al-Shabaab.
If we want to take this bull by the horns, and we must, we shall have to plan well.
What if M7 goes in and doesnt win…contigency plans gentlemen every military ops must have one. What would be his options next after that. East African material support is not assured even if he commits his 20,000 troops, I know we have been down this road before but ill have to state it again logistics and Intel gathering are UPDFs biggest achilles. In 1992 the US was felled by amongst others lack of sufficient intel on the strength of the Habr Gedr militia, luck of sufficient armor and air support and insufficient mastery of the urban terrain in mogadishu. Looking at UPDFs current capabilities and setup i see them rushing into battle with the same shortfalls if not more and without a good way to compensate them…They would need fast agile gunships for example for recce and “weasal” purposes. Those technicals and RPGs know how to hide themselves and someone would have to sight them first or at worst tempt them out. In the region only Kenya’s mosquitos and WZ-9s fit this bill and if DOD doesnt go in on this and the americans fail to send in help they would be going in virtually blind to enemy movements and counter attacks.
I AM told reliably that..(.HUSH ! HUSH! i have heard rumors) that yule kijana baba yake alizaliwa huko kogelo kenya ame jam sana na hawa terrorists mpaka anaplan mipango ya vile anaweza kusaidia sana. after hii mambo ya kura ya maoni ikipita poa next august 4th.
SO LETS WAIT AND SEE…..
Good news. Hata kama ni rais yao, damu yake ni yetu. Hawezi kuignore the situation, especially since they’re also on the receiving end.
bila hata kijana wa Kogelo hivi sasa ni wakati mzuri wakumu kamuwa mwamerika kwa sababa anaelewa the consequences of having a jihadist Homeland. he is over stretched and looking for some one to do the work. lets wait for his quotations in USD.
@ SPIDERman – ok, let’s see. This fellow, you often see him angry with no material consequences. Moreover, he’s already embattled at home with midterm elections approaching. His intelligence crowd will likely support smth like that, but the military.. I’ll wait and watch.
Military assistance has been “pledged” though i doubt it will consist of anymore than a single carrier in the indian ocean and a small contingent of delta “observers”. But its safe to wait and see how it all plays out though i wouldnt hold my breath much.
The Monitor (Kampala)
Uganda: Anti-Terror Squad Passed Out in Time for Al Shabaab
Isaac Khisa
19 July 2010
The Uganda Peoples Defence Forces on Friday passed out a 196-strong Joint Anti-terrorism Taskforce (JATT) squad after undergoing a six-month training in a move to promote professionalism in the force.
Sixteen of the trainees got additional motorbike riding skills.
Orland Balak, the chief instructor from Israel, said the graduates have skills to counter terrorism threats of any kind.
“It is now your duty to ensure the safety of your nation and make us proud by winning battles,” Mr Balak said at the pass out ceremony held at Nakasongola Army Cantonment.
A total of 310 trainees were chosen from the Police Force and UPDF by their commanders but only 196 finished the training as the rest were deployed before the end of the course.
Immediate involvement
The Chief of Military Intelligence, Brig. James Mugira, said the new squad has completed the training at a time the country is searching for terrorists who struck Kampala city on July 11, killing 76 people.
He said the new squad will join the already existing anti-terrorism squad to strengthen the army operations against terrorist groups in the country.
“You are going to use your skills immediately now that the country is encountering terrorists,” said Brig. Mugira adding that terrorists do not know religion or tribe.
Brig. Mugira criticised those reasoning that the al-Shabaab had attacked Uganda because of the UPDF presence in Somalia. “When terrorists attacked Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, were these countries in Somalia? It is completely nonsense to say that the Ugandan attack was a result of deploying in Somalia,” said Brig. Mugira. UPDF is in Somalia under the AU mandate and have a responsibility of ensuring that peace exists in the neighbouring states, he added..
The intelligence chief said although Allied Democratic Forces rebel group was defeated long ago, some remnants are still in the country conniving with the al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda.
Uganda: Army Generals Tipped for War Against Terrorists
THE MONITOR
Chris Obore
18 July 2010
The UPDF High Command is in discussion on who among the senior commanders should be sent to support an onslaught against the Somali militants if the African Union gives them the mandate to open a full scale war against al Shabaab terrorists.
Among the commanders suggested are battle hardened and no-nonsense Brigadiers Kasirye Ggwanga and Elly Kayanja but sources said their names were “just among the options.”
“I haven’t got any communication to that effect ,” said the army spokesman, Lt. Col. Felix Kulayigye, adding, “However, in army whether you are senior or old, when an order comes, you obey.”
Sources said the mood in the High Command is that the al Shabaab who recently claimed responsibility for the bomb attacks in Kampala that killed more than 80 people and injured over 50 others, should be subjected to deterrent military fire in Somalia as the security organs beef-up surveillance locally to guard against any future attacks.
Sources who declined to be named because they are not the official spokespersons of the army said that the decision to deploy additional commanders has not been taken yet and President Yoweri Museveni will make the ultimate choice.
Ugandan officers, headed by Brigadier James Mugira, and a counter-terrorism consultant identified as a Captain Barak inspect the weaponry that will leaders at the African Union summit in Kampala.
Col. Kulayigye said yesterday that regardless of whom the President chooses to command the war against al Shabaab terrorists in Somalia, the UPDF was ready to perform its duties under the Amisom.
Both Brigadiers Ggwanga and Kayanja are known commanders who contributed to the NRA bush struggle with Brig. Kayanja rising to prominence after he led the Operation Wembley which dealt a fatal blow to armed gangsters who had caused mayhem in Kampala and other parts of the country.
Meanwhile, the army yesterday said it has the capacity to decisively deal with the Somalia-based terrorists once the African Union changes the Amisom mandate in the war torn Somalia.
“Once the mandate changes to strict peace enforcement then it means you go on offensive against whoever does not want peace with the transitional freedom government and we are ready for that,” said Lt. Col. Felix Kulayigye.
For now, Col. Kulayigye said, the UPDF in Somalia would not attack the al Shabaab unless provoked. “We can’t attack them now because the mandate does not allow us and we will not breach the AU mandate,” he said but added: “Once the rules of engagement change, we shall not wait.”
The al Shabaab attack on crowds glued on TV screens watching World Cup finals at the Rugby Club in Lugogo and the Ethiopian Restaurant in Kabalagala has inflamed emotions in the country against the terrorists with the majority now supporting the UPDF engagement in Somalia.
President Museveni told the media on Wednesday that the army would go on offensive and look for all those who bombed and killed civilians in Kampala.
“We were just doing our small mandate…now we are taking interest. It was a very big mistake on their side,” Mr Museveni said. His comments were understood to mean that the UPDF troops now in Somalia would go on offensive immediately but the army spokesman yesterday said the Commander-in-Chief would first mobilise the support of Inter Governmental Authority on Development (Igad).
“The President proposed to them [Igad] to mobilise 2,000 more troops,” Col. Kulayigye said, ” It’s supposed to be the collective effort of Igad and not necessarily that the 2,000 troops will come from us.”
But if Igad asks UPDF to deploy, Lt. Col. Kulayigye said, then the army would respond because it was ready to fulfill any mandate given to it.
The army also told Sunday Monitor that the AU summit that starts in Kampala tomorrow could also be challenged on why they have not mobilised the additional 2,000 troops that were supposed to have been deployed in Somalia.
The AU was supposed to contribute troops to keep peace in Somalia but so far only Uganda has contributed the largest force supported by Burundi.
THERE ARE UNCONFIRMED REPORTS THAT alshabab have again in the north eastern kenya shot and wounded one Kenyan GSU paramilitay man and kidnapped another one during a brief but fierce encounter near a border point within last 48 hours’
DOES ANYONE KNOW THE DETAILS?
see video of the alleged attack along kenya border
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/news/InsidePage.php?id=2000014406&cid=159&story=Al%20Shabaab%20injure%20GSU%20officer%20in%20attack
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/news/InsidePage.php?id=2000014406&cid=159&story=Al%20Shabaab%20injure%20GSU%20officer%20in%20attack
FOR how long do we let this contnue ?
@ BEEG EAGLE – you don’t have to post whole articles.
yeah @beegeagle..it is better to post links rather than whole articles verbatim unless there is a problem
IF you are having problems attaching links i suggest you change your internet browser to mozilla firefox which is easier to edit and post links rather than pasting whole articles through the tools menu
A nice piece of analysis, on the issue raised by SPIDERman:
http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/Somalia_Washington_s_Response_to_the_Kampala_Bombings_-_Continued_Procrastination.shtml
@mugwiira… thanks..
OFF COURSE the USA pundits will try to play cautious for now until American lives are involved..and i have never trusted that STUPID fellow Johnny Curson….
they showed the same apathy pre and after 1998 bombings in NAIROBI
SEE daily nation report attributed by the USA former ambasador PRUDENCE BUSHNELL who herself survived the 1998 blast because at the precise moment of attack she was conveniently in a meeting in the skyscraper Coop Bank building which was right next to the USA Nairobi embassy bulidings
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Ex-envoy blames US spies for Nairobi bomb blast /-/1056/961714/-/wevmwyz/-/index.htm
WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE EAST AFRICANS MUST TAKE THE BULL BY THE HORNS OURSELVES AND BIGIN CHOPPING OF ITS LEGS, NECK AND SKIN
this is the correct link
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Ex-envoy%20blames%20US%20spies%20for%20Nairobi%20bomb%20blast%20/-/1056/961714/-/wevmwyz/-/index.html
Carson is not stupid, he’s cautious. Also, having been an ambassador to Uganda in the 90’s, he doesn’t seem to trust M7 much at all.
I STAND BY my opinion on THIS CURSON GUY..he was also ambasador to kenya in the 1990s before he was promoted to washington just before the republicans came to power..then left and came back when the democrats came back in 2008
AT that time he lacked basic knowledge of Kenya politics and even showed open admiration to the status quo when most kenyans were clamaring for change
THE person who was more enganged and is more likely to deliver in the current climate in the region is the immediate former AfrIcan affairs secretary JENDAYI FRAZER
The obama leadership HAS simply recycled CLINTON LEADERSHIP CREW back into the state department whereby we same the same basic lack of understanding of issues on the ground that preceded the1998 bomb attack
However the only difference is that OBAMA himself has intensive and very extensive personal contacts on the ground which enables him to bypass red tape and official channels to get to know what he wants
JUST to give you an idea ..in 2007 when he was running for US president..i happened to be in an office with other people in a meeting with a certain Kenyan politician discusing issues when a phone call was recieved BY THIS politician direct from the man himself..
THAT WAS THE END OF OUR MEETING as we were all asked to leave the room …
i could go into other instances but anyway that is not our subject mater for now…
we need to go on discussing this state of affairs whereby we are seeing ashabab becoming more emboldened..and needs halting in the tracks quickly..
FOR NOW AM MAKING EFFORTS TO GET MORE INFORMATION FROM RELIABLE contacts in the field and will share where appropriate what is going on soonest
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Militia%20kill%20officer%20in%20border%20attack%20/-/1056/961628/-/a5vaenz/-/index.html
The article gives no clarity as to where the incident took place and which the assignment of these GSU officers was. Unless this is intended as a provocation, it would not make sense for the Shabaab to travel 18km into the Kenyan territory (to Liboi) just to attack a GSU unit. Probably these officers were patrolling much closer to the border when they stumbled upon the Shabaab who were also doing reconnaissance.
I mean, without further information, this incident doesn’t tell much about what’s going on at the border..
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2010/07/201072135637169812.html
I understand that something needs to be done about the insecurity but the consequences of going to war in Somalia must be fully understood. That country will remain Kenya’s neighbour forever, so it’s in our best interest to see a stable Somali.
However, once we have an official military presence there, there is no turning back. We will have to stay the course and finish – a job that is likely to take years, considering that al Shabaab will be supported by mujahideen from Afghanistan to Yemen and all other fanatical belligerents in between. It will not be a conventional war.
al Shabaab, which is at best, a ragtag outfit of teenage bandits (who Kenya Army can bag in a few hours), knows that they do not have the resources for a prolonged war, yet they will provoke whole regions. Why do you think that is?
Two words: al Qaeda. Al Shabaab only became emboldened after they declared their allegiance to them. Al Qaeda is spoiling for a fight in (North and East) Africa – a strategy to open multiple fronts in this ‘war on terror’ in order to stretch the enemy (currently building up in the Afghan/Pakistan region).
Al Qaeda is providing cash, urban warfare logistics (which includes suicide bombing techniques, IEDs et cetera) and more importantly, battle hardened insurgents, in exchange for a theatre of war. We must be very careful about what we do next.
@Mwister
SO ARE YOU SUGGESTING that we do nothing as they continue to grow and grow? and continue to mess/take our peoples lives ?
There were reports that African military generals were meeting in Addis- Ababa Ethiopia to craft the way forward to the Somalia problem. Let’s wait and see what they come up with.
Separately i think IGAD should just take the forefront and do what ECOMOG did in Liberia sometime ago. We cannot wait forever, Al Shabbab is growing.
There are suggestions to revise an earlier UN decision barring neighbours from moving in. This means that Kenya,Ethiopia and Djibouti could soon take a more direct approach.
http://www.newvision.co.ug/D/8/13/726537
frankly that igad non interventionist stance was crafted only to pro
tect normal functioning regimes…but somalia is a failed twenty year old problem now with far reaching global implications which will not go away just by waiting for help from the powers that be..we africans must solve this now when we are having goodwill on our side..and will you just and watch if your neighbour keeps attacking you and killing your friends and family?ihope those generals come up with a credible solutionfrom addis ababa the tfg itself wants international intervention.
I would say some of these “normal functioning regimes” are as much of a threat to peace and security as the “failed” Somalia.
I also don’t agree that Somalia is of high value as a “sanctuary” to jihadists. Too remote and underdeveloped. In fact, for the purposes of financing, operational planning and medical treatment, Kenya is much more suitable, and has been used that way for more than 15 years. The only issue is training, but you only need large camps to train insurgents – not terrorists..
The international community is too shy to step in. I guess we may be all alone in this one. What we need to do perhaps is to move in and only ask for financial and may be intelligence support. This, i believe will easily be provided. No one is willing to do the dirty part of the actual fighting and this is where i say we are all alone.
Ultimately the neighbours MUST do something or wait to perish with the failed state.
There will be the heavy price to pay, but the contrary is even more grave.
As soon as the Al Qaeda takes root in Somalia, it will be too late for us and we may as well prepare for an endless conflict just like in the middle East.
We have argued about the merits and demerits of a direct engagement, but whatever method we choose WE NEED TO IMPLEMENT IT NOW. The thugs are becoming even more emboldened after bombing Kampala. At least for once i now support Museveni. He seems to be the only one now making sense to me. We cannot allow cowards to continue dictating terms to us and harassing everybody. A decisive action that sends the clearest signal will make them relocate their stupidity elsewhere other than East Africa. I know some will argue that we risk suicide bombers in our cities if we take them head on, but why haven’t they done anything to Ethiopia who invaded and occupied. Besides, Ethiopia also has a size able somalian population.
@Mugwiira,Risasi,’D’,Mwistar,
SPIDERman is right, and Museveni too.
The west is reluctant,the AU is shy and the UN is half hearted, so who will deal with the mess?
We are alone guys and we stand to lose even more as a result of in action.
Soon the Al shabaab will realize that there are no consequences and therefore roam East Africa visiting terror on everybody. We are folding our arms and assuming that uncle Sam, the world’s top cop will come to our rescue. What a folly.
Uncle Sam is probably overstretched and un-willing to open another front.
We need to take to the skies and rain hell on these fools. They will try to retaliate, but as they do this the more we make life unbearable for them. What is more we need to stifle their sources of funds and money.Our forces don’t even need to move in we have the air force. Seal the borders and bombard them senseless.
Am worried about civilian casualties. Insurgency is a slippery eel to bag its not like al shabaab members walk around with tags on their backs so sealing the border and bombing Mog and other strongholds is not a solution but a catalyst to the problem. To date somali govt. forces operate with technicals and incomplete and disimilar uniforms from the air there is nothing differentiating them with the enemy unless you have specific intel on insurgent movement tracking down a good number of them and taking them out is a huge problem. But i am not against solving this somali problem by all means lets do it we just have to be tactful about it…..
Anyway men nazama ndani majini see you later.
@’D’
Quite right, but look we can take advantage of intelligence and bombard them hard where they are quite concentrated. Needless to say some civilian casualties are inevitable, but this is the price to pay. The same always happens in Afghanistan,Pakistan and even in the middle East. We just need to work with precision in order to minimize the damage.
We can also hammer them hard from the air when they move out to attack government positions like they are doing now.A combination of helicopter fire and intense bombing by fighter jets might just do the trick.Helicopters will especially be useful in tracking down fleeing/retreating fighters.
@ Spiderman – I am suggesting that something needs to be done urgently. I am also suggesting that only fools rush in where angels fear to tread.
@ Mugwiira – The remoteness of Somalia may be an advantage to al Qaeda. Nobody stamps your passport when you go there. In fact, when I visit Kenya, then come back to North America, I am usually questioned about any travels I may/could have made to Somalia.
Plus, Somalia has proven that you don’t need a sophisticated banking system to provide financing – look up the ‘Hawala’ system.
The word ‘sanctuary’ is used very loosely these days. They are not looking for a place to call home. On the contrary, al Qaeda is looking for a reason to say ‘The infidel has invaded another Muslim country, therefore we must defend our brothers and sisters at all costs’. So, they will provoke until somebody takes the bait.
Some useful piece of information:-
http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/Africa can defeat al Shabaab/-/440808/961988/-/iw713c/-/
@olekoima
this link you have provided is not loading up….could you please
please check and advice?
NOW THAT WE ARE ALL on the same page and agree that something needs to be done..SO CAN SOMEONE COME UP with a plan of execution and possible outcomes without too much meat on bones…remember this is an open site and for those whore are blogging from areas where freedom of information is stiffled just be carefull what you write here.
I propose:
1. Do whatever possible to convince the Hawiye that the Shabaab (HSM) are a Darood-dominated force bent on taking revenge for what the Hawiye did to them in Mogadisho in the early 90’s. Use sheikhs to rally the Hawiye against the HSM. Use the clan factor to cause defections from Hizbul Islam, and use these defectors, too.
2. Critically review the capabilites of AMISOM, establish what they’ll need to control a larger part of Mogadisho, then move SWIFTLY to expand the AMISOM area of control (before the Shabaab understand everything and start shelling the port, which they can now do after their May offensive). This will tie down a large number of HSM forces in the city.
3. Stop this madness of trying to integrate ASWJ into the TFG, mend relations between the clerics and the warlords within the group, and use them to keep HSM under constant pressure.
4. Finally open the “third front” against HSM from the Kenyan direction using the GSU-trained Somali youths. These cannot be 100% trusted (the Darood factor), and morale is questionnable, so start with raids and brief incursions. Those who prove themselves capable will then be used to lead larger units in more daring operations. Give these guys proper CAS.
This will wear HSM down, and at some point it may be possible to engage those in their ranks who merely want to rule Somalia. But until then, everyone should maintain as seriously as possible an uncompromising stance against HSM.
This, in my view, will give you control over the situation. But if you want a “final solution” for Somalia – no idea, sorry.
To the members that advocate in using the K.A.F to smoke them out this is what it translates to.
Cost of lifting an F-5E for ground attack roles.
2xM39A2 (280 round per gun) @US$1dollar
2xAIM-9M Sidewinder @US$85,000 Air to air missile
2xAGM-65 Maverick @US$160,000 Air to ground missile
2xMk-84 500 lb. GP bombs @US$3,100[1] (appropriate and cheapest in the armory)
Fuel: 677 gallon (2,563 L) @US$2usd per liters = 1,400km radius
1×275 U.S. gallon (+/- 1000ltrs)external fuel tanks tank to get a extended range/loitering timeof +/-1hour
Total ammo cost/Fuel (excluding maintenance and services) for lifting a bird in one sortie
USD 502480 = 40,977,245.53 Kes [@ 81.5 usd] + 1 billion Kes cost of the fighter. Assuming the fighter will crash on take off
Minimum expected ammo to be used in such sortie average:
1x AGM-65 Maverick (harden bunkers or precision targets)
Fuel: 677 gallon (2,563 L)
1×275 U.S. gallon (+/- 1000ltrs)external fuel
2xMk-84 500 lb. GP bombs (for compound demolition)
100 round 20mm bullets (sporadic fire)
172,300.00 USD = 14,051,065.53 KES
2x sorties per month to prevent regrouping per Fiscal year
4,135,200.00 USD = 337,225,572.62 KES KES (excludining aircraft service and routine maintainance)
fighter always fly in pairs one being a wingman/escort.
Cost of lifting an F-5E for
Escort roles
Configurations:
4× AIM-9 Sidewinders@US$85,000 Air to air missile
Fuel: 677 gallon (2,563 L) @US$2usd per liters 1,400km radius
1×275 U.S. gallon (+/- 1000ltrs)external fuel tanks tank to get a extended range/loitering timeof +/-1hour
346,000.00 USD = 28,216,301.06 KES
[@ 81.5 usd] + 1 billion Kes cost of the fighter. Assuming the fighter will crash on take off
Minimum expected ammo to be used in such sortie average:
Fuel: 677 gallon (2,563 L)
1×275 U.S. gallon (+/- 1000ltrs)external fuel
6,000.00 USD = 489,300.02 KES
2x sorties per month to prevent regrouping. minimum per Fiscal year
144,000.00 USD = 11,743,200.44 KES
Total cost of one squadron in a Fiscal year
4,135,200.00 USD { 337,225,572.62 KES } +144,000.00 USD {11,743,200.44 KES}
4,279,200.00 USD = 348,968,773.06 KES per Fiscal year
(excludining aircraft service and routine maintainance)
N/B Expected 3 year combat operations. Contemplate
I think covert ops will be fine for know.
who will guarantees that Kenya will not be attacked by a neighbor as we stock pile back our ammunitions after the operations. Our armory will be depleted and weak. This is the cost of just 2 Fighter for the mission in a year.
@Mwistar,
So how do we go about the whole thing? You agree that something needs to be done and more so URGENTLY.
Give us your thoughts on how best we should go about the issue.It is not just enough to exercise caution. Time is running out. Somebody must start something.
Some interesting story here:-
http://www.luvei.cm/?p=1904
@SPIDERman,
Sorry i don’t know what is happening with my links. Checking and will post them again shortly.
@Risasi,
Thanks for the analysis. This is indeed very costly. However, you got it wrong a little though.What i meant is that we share this burden as regional states. It should not be done by KAF alone. Ethiopia, Uganda,Kenya,Sudan and Tanzania all need to come on board. Besides i argued that we ask for funds to finance the war effort so that we do the actual fighting since few are willing to do this dirty bit. This being a regional affair means that we don’t run the risk of being attacked by a neighbour when we will be restocking for they will be doing the same too.
From your analysis you have included air to air missiles, i reckon this won’t be necessary since Al Shabaab has no air force. We only need air to ground material and more specifically bombs.
Egypt ,Libya and some North African states are contemplating on the issue of a jihadist home land to their existing fundamentalist groups.
I my opinion we are not in great risks as compared to the N.African states. They know this is their time Bomb. I the long Run it will affect them more seriously. Let them come over and commit themselves first. In Due time the Jihadist will be going North rather the South. We will do our part and safe guard our boards. We have leaved with the Somalis ever since.
this should be the time for setting up regional Comm Centers , liaison Offices e.t.c. but so far nothing has been proposed.
my analysis involves two parts with different costs:
1. Cost is the financial risk partaken in each sorties. the unit cost of an F-5E + its amour i.e. its is the maximum financial risk/investment place as the aircraft is airborne. And the stake to be lost if we loss the aircraft. This includes the air-air missile
2. Cost is only the ammo and fuel we expect to be used in a sortie .
(Minimum expected ammo to be used in such sortie average)
i.e 3000liters fuel, 100 bullets and 2 free fall Mk84 dumb bombs twice a month for 1 year arrives at
4,279,200.00 USD = 348,968,773.06 KES per year
N/B
a. no air-air missile and bullets fired from the escort plane are in the above calculations.
b. no air-air missile will be fire from the ground attack F-5E. this too are in the above figure.
Agree absolutely with your North Africa thesis. Jihadists are a serious security threat to East African states, but not an EXISTENTIAL threat as they are to Egypt or Algeria. We should keep that in mind.
I will not present any detailed military strategies since I am hardly qualified. However, Kenya must come to terms with a few things:
There is the Eritrea problem. That country has a vested interest in an unstable Somalia (probably to further their cause in the border disputes with Ethiopia and Djibouti). They have been accused of supporting al Shabaab with arms shipments and funneling cash from ‘unknown sources’.
Ships flying the UAE flag also supply Somalia with weapons. In fact, the pirates hijacked one late last year which led to a tense stand-off btwn the pirates and al Shabaab. The ‘pirates’ were outgunned and al Shabaab eventually ran them out of the Mogadishu port.
We can’t have our cake and eat it. Nairobi is a money laundering hub amongst other things, and we are more than happy to do business with plenty of illegal Somali interests (in direct contravention to UN Sec Council 1907).
The way I see it, we must blockade Somalia – which will require the co-operation of many, including the League of Arab States (of which Djibouti, Yemen, UAE and Somalia are part of).
There is already an international flotilla present in the region (although it is only protecting specific economic interests), plus mercenaries like Xe and Secopex, patrolling the Gulf of Aden – their mandate would have to be stepped up.
Only then can military raids frustrate the al Shabaab to submission. But, if they continue to get reinforcements and financing, we may go in and thrash them in battle, only to wait a few months then get retaliatory attacks on our soil.
I admire you courage of posting your picture. One thing you need to get correct is that the U.A.E is not linked to al shabaab. its not like U.A.E to do so and it will not like to disappoint the US in such issues. Yes ships with U.A.E flags are operating in that area but these are ships registered in U.A.E thats all. that doesn’t link the U.A.E gov,t to that crime. Most of Somalis merchandised comes from Dubai. hence ships from that area(U.A.E) sail often. Scrupulous Captains have “EXTRA CARGOS” from Yemen and Afghanistan via Iran.
The ship that you are referring to is that Al shabaab rescued was a Saudi Arabia vessel and not a U.A.E
I am in no way suggesting that the UAE govt is complicit in the shipments. However, ships that fly the UAE flag pay taxes in UAE, regardless of who owns the vessel. For that reason, we would need the cooperation of UAE.
Check out this article:
http://www.business.maktoob.com/20090000394398/Pirates_seize_UAE-flagged_ship_with_weapons/Article.htm
With regard to my picture – I stand by everything I post online. I do not need to hide my identity from anybody.
Neither is Ethiopia interested in a stable, united and strong Somalia. Thus their divide and rule game.
Eritrea is interested in such a Somalia which would pose a problem to Ethiopia.
Both play their games in their own interest (with Eritrea also acting as an agent of Egypt and Sudan at times), and I would desist from describing this situation in “good guy / bad guy” terms.
Most Eritrean assistance has in fact been to Hizbul Islam rather than the Shabaab. They have a long-time relationship with Aweys and his crew.
@ D – I want to go back to something that we discussed more than a month ago.
You mentioned that “the tanks in our stores are the T-72 AV variant. they retain the original hull design and engine of the mother T-72s ours have 2 fundamental differences, first is the laser range finder installed post acquisition and the Kontakt explosive reactive armours”.
There is something which left me wondering. T-72A is an upgrade of the original T-72 which was introduced in 1979 and featured, among other improvements, the TPDK-1 laser rangefinder.
T-72AV is a T-72A with Kontakt armor, first introduced in 1986.
Of course, before delivery, these T-72’s would have been fitted with all new Kontakt explosive plates (at least I hope so), but reactive armor as such is not an upgrade over the original T-72AV.
Also, any T-72AV would already have a laser rangefinder. Do you mean that some new model was installed?
@mugwiira
please do not divert attention from alshabab now and bring as back to tanks …WE are dead focusing on this menace for now
….
Couldn’t help re-surfacing for a quick breathe, on a SatCom link – get shot if caught,; and whoa, guys, what is this hell-bent gang-ho drive to greater engagement in Somalia you guys have been pushing? Lets all take a quick step back, military fashion, and re-think this whole thing developing, particularly your rapid-fire, hip-shooting responses to it. First of all, and thinking Globally, we must all know that we are at world-wide war between two diametrically opposed cultures, one on the ascendancy due to new money and an exponentially exploding population, the other dominant and decadent and on the descent due to it predominantly predatory and antagonistic base – read the the neo-Islamic juggernaut versus Judeo-Christian civilization. This infact is a centuries-old struggle hat began with the Saracen / Crusade Wars for Jerusalem, now probably now in its tail-end cataclysmic finale. There have been no clear winners thus far, and victory has oscillated from one to the other. Essentially therefore, in simplistic terms, all wars of the previous 600 years may be so defined. In the 20th Century, the bastion of resistance of the Judeo-Christians shifted from Europe to America (USA) and have with some measure of success kept this conflict away from the motherland by fighting it on the peripheries in all manner of places. Their carefully ignited wars have served to sapped the energies of their adversaries, a vent pipe, and therefore postpone the exportation of this violence to America. 1st and 2nd WW1 & WW2, against the Chinese in Korea and Indonesia, against Russians with the Arab Wars, in Central America against Cuban /Soviet influence, the Soviet Moslem (Chechnya, Azerbaijan) Republics along the Urals, in the last line of defense along the Himalayans with the First & Second Afghan Wars. But in the later part of the 20th Century, the Islamists have gained from their intrusion and infiltration of the Western Financial and Military Sectors, grown rich beyond imagination on Oil and its off-shoot Investments. In the Nineties, they began to take the battle closer to the Judeo-Christian bastion (the opening salvo loudly clear with twin-towers take-down), who have increasingly engaged in a desperate struggle to keep this as far away from their homeland for as long as possible. Critically therefore one must not only interrogate the origins and purposes of the sparks that ignite such local conflagrations as the Kampala Explosions, and also more so the deliberate drive made in all media by all manner of persons including contributors to this blog to generate consensus that we are at risks greater than we know which require deepened military engagement. America is trying to spread the risks to as many of us as possible, and delay the inevitable implosion that seems imminent in America itself of home-grown 5th-column-type terror groups igniting a new much more dangerous war-front inside America itself. I am in-theatre right this instant, and from this distance nothing will be served by increasing the visibility of our Troops inside Somalia, to any African except Uncle Sam. Risasi, Mwister and “D” aptly state, with the hindsight of their personal involvement and understand of matters military, that East Africa should stay this present course, definitely augmented and with urgency( convert / black drapes ops, Intel and local interdictions, disinformation and sabotage, extreme prejudice take-outs, hearts-and-minds operations, etc). This is what will stablised Somalia eventually, not the large-scale deployment of munitions and boots with vengeance in their hearts. So that a critical mass evolves that counters the influence of the Al-shabbaab inside Somalia itself. We have done this with increasing success since the sixties, against incredible odds I might add. Any Uniforms will tell that UG hot-ride into Somalia will require Kenya to extricate them to save their bacon sooner than later. Guinea, Senegal, Djibouti providing aggressor-units into this complex maelstrom of unconventional conflict is the joke of the year. I urge the hot-heads amongst you to step-back and re-take this thing, friends!!
For those of you who were quick to dismiss my argument that UPDF is overstretched with its Somalia deployment:
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/963676/-/x2masg/-/index.html
Of course 3000 troops are going to be over streached. the article was talking about the troops in Somalia not the entire capacity of the UPDF
Yes i thought so too. How is it possible that the entire UPDF is overstretched? Overstretched by what?
@ ole Nkarei – I agree with your conclusions, but not with your “clash of civilizations” view, especially with the notion of “Judeo-Christian civilization”, a relatively new term used in American politics to justify the America’s unconditional support of Israel.
“We are one of the most efficient armies in Africa. We can defend our country from anywhere, even within Somalia,” Ugandan army and Defence Ministry spokesman Lt-Col Felix Kulaigye
At times like this, of national introspection and fear, the Masses must be fed Hope. Perfectly sensible and expected strategy by any government which claims legitimacy of governance. Moreover, an act such as this challenges to the core the very foundations of the Bandit-king’s ruling edifice, which is his monopoly to violence that cower the population into subservience. Therefore it is not entirely surprising to listen and read the staff coming from the Brass and Politicos in UG in reaction to this dastardly act. And the Jury is still out (like Risasi opined earlier) about whose handiwork this was. That LRA is still as relevant in UG as it has been over twenty years is all but forgotten by my buddy Spiderman – Men, I tell you, this Al-Shabaab I know well, and they ain’t half-grown drugs-fed teenagers led by cutthroats of the LRA. Their motivation, field-craft, Intelligence & cell-organization, etc would make many G2 and G3 in formal armies swell with pride, I tell you. Do you reckon we shall allow UG to gallivant around our backyard to assuage the pride of a Bandit-king like in the Congo, CAR and GoSS with the same results of self-perpetuating anarchy? With a half-baked Military, and no strategy beyond going-in-and-giving-it-to-them? What do you suppose will happen when they get their arse kicked, in short order, as they will, and the Somalia galvanizing the imagination of every Islamic idealist in the world, ( as happened in Spain in the 1920s) as well as anyone else who gains from giving Uncle Sam a bloody nose? What of the Decades of hard work and sacrifice of thousands of Kenyans to pacify ( to a whimper) the fractious and quarrelsome Somalis
@mugwiira – either you aint a student of Military History, or selective in its interpretation. I am a soldier, a damn good one, and like every good one I know value of understanding it well. No new terms here, unless you have only just heard of them – Judeo-Christian reference has been a fort of philosophy for decades, man!!
@ ole Nkarei – we are going off-topic here, but I want to reply.
No mainstream philosopher apart from Nietzsche (and I wonder whether Nietzsche was indeed mainstream) has used this term, “Judeo-Christianity”, implying the special relationship between Christianity and Judaism, since the days of early Christianity in 5th century AD. It was resurrected by American Jews and their Christian sympathizers in middle of 20th century for political purposes. The Catholic church never had any more sympathy for Jews as compared to Muslims. If any crusader in, say 13th century, dared to refer to a common “Judeo-Christian” cause, they would’ve burnt him as a heretic.
It’s amazing however how this notion is being skilfully manipulated by both sides in our “War on Terror” times!
In fact, the term “Abrahamic religions” (including Judaism, Christianity AND Islam), while also being relatively modern, is some 100 years older than the notion of “Judeo-Christian civilization”.
@Mugwiira – touche’. I will take you on this up later, now I gotta get back work. Please keep this blog pointed right direction, to avoid calling in the shots too close. But as a last lick, if UG goes in with the carte blanche their Brass and Politicos are calling for, Kenya will stop them by Force of Arms! Such action has only a feel-good benefit, and against our real Strategic National Interests. And without Kenya’s tacit and complete support, Political / Intel / logistics, UG will only get bogged down in this quagmire that is Somalia, and slowly get picked-off. Hell, guys, the near-term future of Kenya, which to a large extent hinges on the development and complete integration of the Northern Frontier districts into the National Economy, is strategized as dependant on our exerting a degree of control in this Area, which will be impossible if this present low-grade attrition-type conflict in Somalia is aggravated by such a bird-brained, jump-before-you-look scheme which lacks strategic focus nor clearly defined tangible deliverables, and neither any degree of success. Out!
@ole nkerai
@mugwiira
TERRORISM as we know it today did not exist until someone created the state of ISREAL…
HOWEVER MUCH you guys want to spin this …and even quoting from the deep anals of history…i dont see how you are equating the activities of alshabab to THE activities of saladin etc ..and my fear is that at this rate we shall start quoting even genjis khan …..
SERIOUSLY are WE saying that we do nothing least we attract more jihadist to our midst?
WE HAVE SEEN what they are capable of doing
SO IF INTERVENTIONISM is not the way forward…what are we doing to contain this clear and present danger?
While i can largely concur with most of your sentiments on these issues…my heart bleeds just thinking that your ideas form the main stream military thinking philosophy within the top brass in OUR country?
….and i could be mistaken but am getting this feeling that you guys are seemingly changing the focus of this discussion from the problem at hand…I FRANKLY dont see any success to stifle peoples out rage on this matter.
i think this daily nation writer has summed up the way forward….something needs doing soonest
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/africa/Time%20to%20give%20al%20Shabaab%20killer%20punch%20%20/-/1066/964212/-/3br1kwz/-/index.html
Spiderman – as you under the illusion that this blog is a Strategy Planning Platform for Military or Intelligence activities? Lemme dissuade you, buddy, it ain’t. No matter how much you may want to rivet discussions on this one subject, it only a talking shop that we throw up ideas and exchange pertinent information of interests or commonality – is all, buddy. How much of this influences Planning eventually is really delusional to contemplate. We express personal view-points, or exchange personal experiences. It is also a perfect site for disinformation, for propaganda, running CI Stings using all manner of noms-de-plume. Historical antecedents give perspective to discussions, and even Genghis Khan will have valuable lessons to impact – not meant to engross in irrelevant details such as you imply. Lastly, I take good cognizance of the fact that the slave-trade was in the first instance perpetuated by Africans upon Africans – of course encouraged by Western Economic Interests. But the Village Chief that supplied the Arabs slavers with his cousins, brothers, relatives and people of neighboring villages, was an African himself! Be calm, Spiderman, there is no new threat coming from Somalia, my brother.
I HAVE READ on some blogg somewhere that perhaps we should set mungiki against alshabab …i fear that then they wont stand a chance….what a brilliant idea
maybe all tribes in kenya should pool resources ie the luhya can muscle in with the dreaded angola msumbiji thugs, the kisii will spice up with the chinkororo …them mix in a few kamba,masai,turukana and samburu worriors ….JOB DONE ..no army or GSU involment…they can sit in their baracks and enjoy…
ANY WAY JOKES aside what did those generals who sat in addis come up with?
@ole nkerai
am perfectly aware of the implied modus operandi of majority of blogers on this site and am not under any illusions that this blogg supllements any military or inteligence activity..
BUT AM PERFECTLY happy to play second fiddle and give any would be strategy planners who are “frequently” stambling onto this site something to think about….SOME of the material you guys supply here would make most analists extremely resource full ….i would imagine
Take it easy, Pat. And your ears to the ground. Am in-theatre with a whole lot of chaps. Remember, generalisations and intelligent suppositions, eh? On an aside, you recall the Doctrine of Controlled Chaos as a Military strategy? Anyway, we cannot be reactive to these chaps, rushing to to smoother them with smoke and thurder – that gets a lot of guys needlessly dead. But we will shaft them, make no doubts about it.
This is an interesting article about the Somalia situation titled ‘The Deadly Enigma’
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/somalia/articles/20100725.aspx
Not without some good points, but an extremely one-sided description of Somali history and culture.)
@ ole_ nekeri I find your statements of calling a legitimately elected president of a sovereign nation “a bandit king” irresponsible and abusive. Whatever inclinations you may have against UG and M7 I ask that you keep them private for the sake of not drawing this blog into “rough path”. At times like these people take attacks on mother nations a serious aggression even for people like I who have sworn allegiance to other nations. So like I was advised sometime back lets stick to mature debate.
Now what you are saying about the AU giving UG the mandate it needs; even if it is not granted, the UG government has already found another way in because the TFG is willing to give them that mandate. http://allafrica.com/stories/201007190808.html so either way we should expect a huge military presence in Somalia.
@tororo
this is not the first time the TFG has asked for help…there was even a message for the UN by the TFG authorizing use of force to help them fight these thugs and piracy but NO one has yet to accept the challenge
AND EVEN if Uganda takes up this challenge..the logistics involved will be so massive such they need external help from other players for them to make any significant moves in SOMALIA…and .USA HAS pledged support so we wait to see.
@ Spiderman – True the sooner the whole EAC comes together and fight these terrorists, The easier and quicker it will be for every one in the EAC. I can’t belive there is anyone who is against the armed intervention of the other arican countries apart from the people who are profiting off this caous in one way or another.
Tororo, the only problem I see with this argument is that those who profit most “off this caous” are apparently all in favor of “the armed intervention”. 😉
THERE seems to be consensus that the AU mandate is now changed from peace keeping to peace enforcement
see this link
http://www.africareview.com/News/AU%20offensive%20on%20al%20shabaab%20gathering%20steam/-/825442/963532/-/item/1/-/nlteng/-/index.html
Not really. They have adjusted the mandate to allow for more permissive ROE’s allowing AMISOM to pursue the Shabaab more agressively if attacked. I doubt the utility of this considering that UPDF has not ventured deep into Shabaab-controlled territory for the reason that it will make their armored vehicles highly vulnerable to ambushes.
The AU cannot grant a “peace enforcement” (Chapter 7) mandate. Only UNSC can do that, and at the moment it’s not even being discussed.
WHO is this who has appointed thyself as moderaters for this site? was there any notification to bloggers?
A Ugandan T-72A lost in Mogadisho.
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/slideshow/photo//100702/481/urn_publicid_ap_org5009065ea8cd4b1691cad84b4ba966ab/
1. We now have photos of Ugandan T-72’s (scroll further for more).
2. Note that it was knocked out in an almost textbook fashion. The areas targeted are the ones which don’t have applique armor: the engine, the fuel tanks, the chassis and the driver’s hatch.
Mugwira i doubt the picture shown is a T-72. Thats a T-55. Note the location of the fume extractor at the extreme end of the main gun instead of the middle part.
I also noticed you asked about upgrades on the T-72AV. I think we are on the same page on the armor plating on those tanks, its the sights that need clarification. Unfortunately i can only say these tanks dont have the normal laser range finder they also have some FLIR capabilities for nocturnal combat. Armed forces get specific upgrades for their hardware alot of times.
Sorry for steering out of topic guys. I just thought our brother deserved an answer.
Yes, you are right, it’s a T-55! The gun, the rear turret, and then, FIVE wheels.. I was probably falling asleep, don’t know how I made such a funny mistake.
Some time between ’05-’07 Ugandans were so keen to get some T-72’s that they even wanted to pay for them from M7’s “private fund”, so I thought for a moment they’d pulled it off.
But the more important thing I wanted to show is that urban combat against the Shabaab won’t be easy. Unlike Kony’s gangsters, they don’t run for cover when they hear a BMP engine, and it seems they are getting training on anti-armor operations. If the UPDF follow the typical NATO template of tanks and infantry advancing together, it will take forever. If they send in specops assault teams however, their losses will increase considerably, which will be a problem because UPDF has few trained commando units.
Ooh, what a loss. This is a heavily modified T-55 tank, but how exactly did the Al Shabaab manage to destroy this tank? Do they also posses anti-tank capability? Man Portable?
The good old RPG-7. That’s how it’s supposed to work:
http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/rusav/rusav.htm
you know wat guys,when updf was moving their armement to somalia,i was at the port of mombasa and i know most of the equipments they ship over there.
there is no T-72 within updf inventory in somalia.thats a falacy.
Well, the Ugandan variants of the T55 are the Bulgarian-modernised “M” variant and they come fitted with reactive armour. 90 units of those were delivered to the UPDF in 1998
http://unhq-appspub-01.un.org/UNODA/UN_REGISTER.nsf
Dangerous.I think fighting in the more urban areas will then require the services of commando units. The Al shabaab might prove to be a hard nut to crack after all. I guess it gonna get bloody with more troops arriving. A good thought out plan is indeed needed here.
Anyway thanks for the info Mugwiira.
Thanks BEEG EAGLE,but don’t they have other models? I thought they had T-62s as well.
The UPDF in 2009 also acquired a total of 46 UNITS of T-55 tanks from RUSSIA and BELARUS( 23 from each country)
http://unhq-appspub-01.un.org/UNODA/UN_REGISTER.nsf
Moving on, going by what I heard in the international media, the mandate of AMISOM still remains as it were -NO CHANGE from PEACEKEEPING to PEACE ENFORCEMENT but the troops now have the authorization to launch pre-emptive attacks when they have intelligence reports pointing to an imminent attack on their positions by militants.
No,they don’t Olekoima. Trust me, I have kept an eye on the logs for so long that it would have scarcely escaped my notice. At the time when they acquired the first consignment of T55s in 1998-1999, Africa was literally going crazy over that tank.
With the Angolan and Ethio-Eritrean Wars in full swing, they were acquired in stupefying numbers viz
ETHIOPIA(1998)
50 units of T55 from Bulgaria
ANGOLA(1999)
62 units of T55M from Belarus
150 units of T55AM2 from Slovakia
Year,but i’ am sure they will find a way out of this peace keeping approach. At least they are now allowed to attack if they have information of an impending attack. This is an improvement.
Separately, i don’t understand this T-55 obsession by Uganda.Why can’t they buy better tanks? I know the T-55s are relatively cheaper and one can amass a lot, but surely a few examples of say T -72s will be handy for Uganda given her uneasy relationship with Sudan.
Well Olekoima, with the glut of refurbished tanks coming out of the East Bloc and as more and more ex-WARPAC states join NATO, a decent but possibly not the latest T55 can be grabbed for US$500K while a T72 can be acquired for US$700K. It all depends on the funding levels available to an army.
What seems apparent though is that the MAINSTAY tank across Africa remains the T55. Nations continue to ramp up arsenals of T55s, most acquired in the post-1995 era…from Angola to Ethiopia, Uganda to Eritrea, DR Congo to Sudan, Chad to Mali the story has been the same….a real love story. In the cost and the numbers which can be quickly amassed appears to lie the attraction. It is a rugged and easy-to-maintain system too.
My brother, I have NEVER believed that the solution to ANY raging African conflict lies in the tepid approach that is known as peacekeeping. It hardly ever works in Africa because there is no peace to be kept in the war-affected zone anyway. It takes no soothsayer to see that most African armies are not keen on going to Somalia given the currently operable rules of engagement. It is like going into a battlefield without the banana clip of your AK-47. Of what use would the rifle then be?
Come on, imagine what the DR Congo would have been today if the MONUC forces there did not have the peace enforcement mandate. It would have been a lot worse.
In West Africa, ECOMOG tried peacekeeping in Liberia between August and September 1990. The troops actually landed when the rebels were one mile away from capturing State House. On the day that President Doe met his death right at the HQ of ECOMOG’s Ghanaian Force Commander, peacekeeping was inevitably changed to peace enforcement . ECOMOG had been jolted from its lethargy. It was a full-blown war and it had to be fought, so naval artillery from Nigerian missile craft rang out and Alpha jets began to bomb and strafe rebel positions around Monrovia.
In Liberia and Sierra Leone between Sept. 1990 and the year 2000, NEVER AGAIN was anything else but PEACE ENFORCEMENT acceptable for or applicable to ECOMOG operations. It is something for all of Africa to think about.
beegeagle is right …IN Africa past experience has shown that peace keeping never works..REMEMBER what happened to the initial Kenyan peacekeepers in SIERRA leone?…A NUMBER OF MEN WERE LOST until the mandate changed drasticurly..then the Kenyans reacted to enforce the mandate with the help of the rest of the contigent.
IN ANY CASE now in SOMALIA.. THERE is no peace to keep …the country has been at war for 20 years now for gods sake…so when these guys are attacking and destroying tanks…i dont see why this is not now open warfare…
Do you guys see the UNSC granting the Chapter 7 mandate?
I don’t see how, for example, South Africa will commit its Marines to Somalia as requested by AU without the mandate changing.
Plus, how cohesive are the AU troops currently in Somalia? It’s been suggested that there is mistrust between the AU and the TGF. Will additional troops necessarily help the situation?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/africa-readies-2000-additional-troops-for-war-torn-somalia/article1653310/
Please take a minute to look through this piece, gentlemen.
Believe it or not, UGANDAN INTELLIGENCE sources are quoted as suggesting that ADF-NALU insurgents may have carried out the Kampala bombings. How plausible does that sound to you?
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2010/0728/Next-challenge-for-Congo-International-terrorism/(page)/2
also take note that a gsu police officer was injured on the kenya/somali border recently.raising concerns to kenyan security forces
@ BEEG EAGLE – both Risasi and myself has suggested some time ago that these attacks could’ve been the work of some sort of local cadres. I am not sure however that their identification/labelling as ADF/NALU is correct.
More here:
http://independent.co.ug/index.php/cover-story/cover-story/82-cover-story/3249-security-find-new-clues-on-the-terror-attacks-
Please bear in mind The Independent is not a 100% reliable source of information, but probably a better one than Mr. Jason Stearns (of congosiasa).
Nothing is really clear yet.
@ BEEG EAGLE – FYI, apart from the T-55MV’s which you mentioned (by the way, out of those 90 pcs, 60 were from the Ukraine but re-exported via Bulgaria), UPDF also operates some T-55AM2’s which is a further upgrade with “horseshoe” reactive armor:
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Somalia-Unrest/ss/events/wl/051006somaliaunrest;_ylt=Akln25qHK5taYj1Kk8uDrYSZsdEF;_ylu=X3oDMTFlcWFuNHZ0BHBvcwMzBHNlYwN5bl9yXzNzbG90X3NsaWRlc2hvdwRzbGsDc2xpLWV2LWxpbms-#photoViewer=/100728/photos_wl_afp/1e95185da1341fbfaeba2eae4cca298b
These tanks are in fact even cheaper. Your figures of $500K and $700K must already include all the bribes and intermidaries’ commissions. The suppliers’ prices plus freight are some 20-25% lower. Well, at least that’s what it was in 2007 when I last checked.)
Prices will likely keep falling because Russia is about to retire many of its T-72’s, some from the reserve, and some due to replacement by T-90.
@ mwistar – the chances of AMISOM getting a Chapter 7 mandate from UNSC are, IMHO, near zero because doing so will put UNSC’s reputation at stake. I don’t think any permanent members will put their reputation into the hands of UPDF or a similar force.
meanwhile as they differ on what to do….things are heating up…..
i think some one is pushing some other out fit against alshabab now..
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=2000014901&cid=4&ttl=Border%20security%20intensified%20as%20rival%20militias%20clash
That, I guess, is not “Hizbul Islam” as said in the article, but Ahmed Madobe and his Ogadeni boys who used to be called Muaskar Ras Kamboni before at-Turki joined the Shabaab. I don’t think there are any forces loyal to Aweys left in Juba.
Madobe has been set to try counter-attack the Shabaab since they kicked him out of Kismayo earlier this year.
As for WHO is supporting Madobe, I guess some people over here can tell much more than myself, I wonder whether they’re authorized to do so..
In the meanwhile, it seems in Mogadisho the “real” HI have re-joined the Shabaab in their fight against AMISOM after several weeks of negotiations.
@Mugwiira
I MUST admit here that your intricate and at times very “intimate” ? knowledge of these tribes and clans leadership in this murky world of Somalia is very impressive….and more so the real goings on there….HOW DO YOU MANAGE THIS?
ANYWAY please keep it up …HOWEVER
IT SEEMS the KENYAN leadership is trying real hard to enlist help from the big five at the international level
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Kenya%20seeks%20UK%20support%20in%20Somalia%20militia%20fight/-/1056/966924/-/12vir2q/-/index.html
BUT to me i think the big five will only became proactive when very soon a Somali linked terrorists will strike somewhere in the western world.THEN THEY will see the very nature of this threat.
I SINCERELY HOPE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN and pray that the western powers give the East Africans all the help they need to eradicate this menace
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/966812/-/x2of6g/-/index.html
Wow. Have the Ugandan security agencies suddenly turned extremely efficient, or..?
http://256news.com/page.php?aid=1434&caid=1
Hmm. The article was removed from the main page. Overexcitement?
@ SPIDERman – there’s in fact plenty of open-source information on Somali clans and armed groupings online. It’s very difficult to get any idea of what is going on without some background research, as both sides apply deception on a massive scale.
Also, these days it’s very hard to get information on what is happening in Mogadisho. If you read something like this:
http://newvision.co.ug/D/8/12/727207
– you will get an impression that TFG/AMISOM are expanding their area of control. In reality, they have merely regained some ground which they lost in recent weeks. The locations mentioned are all within 1km of Villa Somalia. This is a familiar pattern where the Shabaab would launch an offensive, withstand a counter-offensive, reinforce while harassing the AMISOM with mortar/sniper fire, then attack again. An aditional 2k or 4k troops will probably only help stabilize the situation.
UPDF OFFICER CRITICIZES AU RESOLUTION
http://www.rnw.nl/africa/article/uganda-army-officer-criticises-au-resolution
These dances around the mandate issue are a diversion. The only purpose they serve is to divert attention from AMISOM’s own limitations and point fingers in the direction of something as vague as “international community”.
It must be stated emphatically that “peace enforcement” is not “war”. Its goal is not “victory” in Clausewitzian terms. It is not a coincidence that it is classified as a military operation other than war (MOOTW).
What M7 is talking about is not peace enforcement, but a mix of COIN and occupation. Even if AMISOM is brought to a 20k strength level, it cannot launch a COIN operation across Southern Somalia.
If AMISOM wanted to take control of the whole Mogadisho, they could’ve done it even with the existing mandate. The updated one removes any possible ambiguity altogether.
In early 2009, it was still possible. Today, it is unlikely, unless artillery is employed on a scale which will produce such resentment that the Shabaab will have as many recruits as they want.
The AU is being made a scapegoat in the current situation where there seem to be no good options.
@mugwira Go back home. You are abusing the hospitality that has been accorded to you by Ugandans. You are an equivalent of a guest who comes to a home insists on using the master suite and having caviar for dinner. Time for you to leave go to wherever you are from and let Ugandans and their EA brothers solve their problems. Its not like you were giving any insightful advise anyways.
Au contraire Tororo i think mugwira hits it just right. His knowledge and resourcefulness as to where to get info on what is going on on the ground is more than anyone on this blog knows or is willing to let on. Uganda has painted itself into a corner on this issue. 1st by refusing to even acknowledge somaliland as a sovereign state on any level it is isolating a potentially priceless asset if M7 gets his way and sends large numbers of troops into the somalia theatre. Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya are the only East African states that have made positive steps towards recognitiopn of somaliland. Of all East Africans Uganda needs somaliland the most to act as a FOB in cse of any large scale assault on al shabaab. Remember these bandits are in themselves not a unitary unit. They have internal divisions the al shabaab in dhobley for example might not see eye to eye with those from the greater mogadishu on some issues.
Tororo, you are back to your usual bad manners again. Cannot we differ on opinions of interpretation but still be civil to each other? Must we always agree with each other? Isn’t this an intellectual forum on Military and Intelligence matters? You speak only for yourself. Mugwiira is a professional and a damn good one at that. What he expresses are views a whole lot of Uniforms find constant value and truth in, including many that have not expressed themselves. I for one find convergence with his expressions, and find good value in his opinions. C’mon, man, chin-up and allow for some divergence of opinion.
D – I don’t disagree with his knowledge of other issues especially on Somalia. What I find annoying is for someone to deliberately paint a wrong image of a country that is hosting him. There are so many inconsistencies with his points as regards UG and I wonder why since he is in the country. Why not take time to find the actual truth and leave whatever prejudice you have behind.
@ ole-nekeri am yet to get to the “bad” manners. (You know like calling an elected president a bandit king!). I think I have been restrained so far.
Maybe Tororo the more pragmatic route to follow is point out exactly what Mugwira has said that you dont agree with and strive to set those matters straight. I suspect you dont agree on his comments on ugandan intelligence reliability but i am also of the same view point. Not only of ugandan intelligence but also of most of african countries as well including our own NSIS. I am also critical of the CIA above all other intel outfits because given their connections and technological abilities they sure do gaffe alot. I find it weird that no one was able to pick up on the recent kampala bombings before they happened yet all over sudden unexploded vests are cropping up left, right and center. It means someone has been sleeping on the job and has just jolted awake or someone is doing an extremely enthusiastic job at a cover up for whatever reason.
@ Tororo – you accuse me of two different things:
1. That I am DELIBERATELY misinforming everyone on Uganda. I can assure that I have no such intention and no motivation for it. If you can show me where, and how I have done that, I will apologize.
2. That there are inconsistencies in what I said. Please note that a piece of information can only be inconsistent WITH something, it can’t be “just inconsistent”. If you show me what is inconsistent with what, I will be grateful. What we do here is have a discussion.
And I don’t think it would be reasonable to start making personal attacks. Bear in mind that you told us you serve a foreign power, so I can in turn question your motives.
Mugwiira I can’t remember exactly all your words (and would not want to misquote you) but some statements like “the UPDF is over stretched” are totally misleading. I don’t know how long you have been in UG but they had or are still having a massive retrenchment exercise and some of these soldiers are still looking for employment (some constitute that kiboko group) I know so many highly trained soldiers (including an Uncle) who are “sited” doing nothing and people like him could be called up if there was ever a need for man power.
Now as regards the intelligence am as skeptical as anyone and am still talking to people in UG to get to the bottom of this. For a service that was able to foil the terrorists who were supposed to blow up the US embassy in KLA at the same time Nairobi and Dar bombs were going off, it’s a little bit peculiar that this time they failed to find them. I have heard all kinds of theories that this may have been let to happen because the affected were mostly middle or lesser class of individuals and this collateral damage was to be used for political gain. Now carrying a terrorism charge could be truly a capital offence for anyone who may be unfortunate to have such a label. Don’t get me wrong though, Al-shabaab committed this heinous act but I know they could have been stopped. Somebody deliberately let this happen and am just waiting on my sources to confirm this.
About me working for another nation, when I took the pledge of allegiance, I meant every word and this was before I got this Job but I qualify for dual citizenship and therefore I can always come to the Aid of the other nation without any kind of bias
@ BEEG EAGLE – You often quote the ECOMOG operation in Liberia. I agree that its lessons are relevant to the Somali situation.
First, the mandate is not such a big issue as many seem to think. After all, a foreign force can do practically anything by simply entering into a “foreign miltary assistance” agreement with the host country. You don’t even need a real legitimate gov’t; in Liberia, ECOMOG’s operation was sactioned by two governments, one which ceased to exist (that of Doe), and one which was fictional (that of Sawyer).
Second, while the ECOMOG mission was successful in the end, it was actually messed up from day one. Its original purpose was to protect Doe from Charles Taylor’s NPFL rebels, but by the time the force was deployed, NPFL controled most of the country, and ECOMOG forces immediately came under attack. Then, Doe himself was killed two weeks later. Talor’s forces tried to capture Freetown from ECOMOG but failed. Freetown was controlled by ECOMOG most of the time while the countryside generally remained in NPFL’s hands.
Eventually, what ended the conflict was not a military victory of either side but a deal between Nigeria and Taylor which was made after it was realized (after 4 years of fighting) that neither can “win”. Taylor was then propelled to presidency.
Third, it is important that the deal was only made after Abacha replaced Babangida. The latter’s problem was that he once was a big time friend of Doe and disliked Taylor.
Fourth, it is also worth noting that the pressure which was put on NPFL by other insurgent forces supported by Liberia’s neighbours also helped push Taylor towards an agreement. However, there was also serious response in the form of RUF which was Taylor’s creation and caused immense suffering in Sierra-Leone.
Fifth, the Liberia operation proved to be a very heavy burden on Nigeria’s economy. This is important because many seem to underestimate the costs of a prolonged military exedition.
The main lesson I think is that denying a victory to an insurgent while maintaining a pressure on him from multiple directions can give a positive result provided that at some point you can reach out to the insurgency, or at least certain elements within it. However, a “pure” and decisive military victory in COIN warfare is a much more problematic thing.
P.S. After I finished, I realized with amazement that you can reach the same conclusion when studying the US COIN experience in Iraq.
Nice write-up, Mugwiira.
At the CORE of all considerations relating to the Somalia situation is the impact of the state of insecurity on the overwhelming majority who happen to be civilians.
ECOMOG in 1990 and ECOMIL in 2003 WERE NOT formed to fight against rebel forces per se. They mustered with the specific mandate of ameliorating the humanitarian catastrophe facing the civilian populace at the times and to PREVENT ANY unconstitutional change of government. eventhough the basic decision to enter Liberia was taken by ECOWAS Heads of State, this was heavily underpinned by enormous pressure from the USA and the EU.
To the extent that ECOMOG and ECOMIL led to the abatement of the humanitarian crises and prevented rebels from taking power UNCONSTITUTIONALLY, both fulfilled their mandates.
In 1990, a third of Liberians were crammed into the capital, Monrovia, as IDPs, another third were scattered around West Africa while the rest existed behind rebel lines.
The killing of President Doe & hostile action by rebel forces forced a unilteral abandonment of the peacekeeping mandate in preference for a peace enforcement effort. ECOMOG seized the capital and thereafter set up a series of Interim Governments of National Unity which enjoyed ECOWAS,OAU and UN recognition. Taylor was forced to retreat to his hometown of Gbarnga, as ECOMOG took over some strategic towns and garrisoned same as civilian safe havens for the benefit of the war-weary populace.
Much of the fighting which characterised the war thereafter consisted of attempts by rebel forces to expand their control and/or to push the ‘interloping’ ECOMOG out of their country. This was ALWAYS resisted with heart and might by ECOMOG troops and not once did Taylor come near a realisation of his dream of seizing the state by force of arms.
It was HIS own realiZation (not ECOMOG’s since their mandate was CLEAR-CUT) that a forceful takeover of power or forcing ECOMOG out of Liberia were IMPOSSIBLE that he acceded to the ECOWAS peace treaty and his eventual victory at the polls in 1997.
OBAMA EXPANDS MILITARY INVOLVEMENT IN AFRICA – training and equipment for Uganda, Anti-Terrorism financing for Kenya, Special Forces training for DR Congo etc
@ Tororo
You have skipped the “deliberate misinformation” point, but nevermind.
“Overstretched” does not only mean sheer troop numbers.
It is easy to assemble a few thousand “retirees” (who weren’t actually properly retired or moved to reserve, thus the word “on kateebe”). It is much more difficult to equip them and to supply them abroad. Somalia isn’t next door like DRC.
Then, for example, UPDF is remaining with a single fully operational Mi-24, while no offensive in Somalia may be possible wihout attack helicopters. Thus, if you followed the recent AU summit, you’ve noticed that Uganda was asking for US money to procure choppers for AMISOM, but the answer wasn’t positive.
Further to this, serviceability of the UPDF T-55’s is questionnable. There are some recent deliveries, but if those all go to Somalia, what will reamain in Uganda?
But even where troop numbers are concerned, things are not that simple. There was no proper “retrenchment” exercise. Instead, many soldiers were simply sent home, and the actual strength has declined to abt 30k. Does UPDF have a database of this “reserve”? It’s not difficult where commissioned soldiers are concerned, but how are you going to recruit rank and file? By placing adverts? But how are you going to make sure the force isn’t infiltrated by, say, ADF?
Then, the AMISOM mandate is extended every 6 months. How can you recruit soldiers, send them to fight when they know that after 6 months pass, there may again be no future for them? What will be their morale?
Also keep in mind every unit has a “personality”. Cohesion and trust are of primary importance, especially in a foreign country with potent insurgency. What will be the cohesion of such hurriedly assembled units?
I have not heard of any example where a force for peace support operations was assembled from reservists rather than dispatching units from the active force. And I wouldn’t want Uganda to be the first country to embark on this dangerous experiment.
And, you can have a double citizenship (but not in Uganda, they still haven’t allowed it as far as I know), but you cannot have a double allegiance. It’s not possible to sit on two chairs, at least not forever. Things change. Like, who will remember today that in 1994 Robert Mugabe was appointed an honorary Knight by the Queen?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100730/ap_on_re_af/af_uganda_explosions
I find it weird that this wasn’t mentioned in any major UG newspaper.
What amazes me is that, if everything is true, this trio operated in an absolutely brazen manner. It seems they were caught because they were using the same phone to detonate the explosives and to make regular calls. Moreover, all their SIM’s were apparently bought from the same vendor. Lastly, they kept travelling back and forth between Nairobi and Kampala even after July 11th.
Which probably tells us these guys were “expendable material” rather than high-profile terrorists. I wonder how many more of them have been trained.
The fact that they were getting money from the Somali community is also very telling. I don’t buy the story that they were corced into contributing.
The problem for M7 here is that Amina has been the first family’s cashier for quite some time now, and the Somali community in general has been quite a nice cash flow contributor. Therefore, an all-out crackdown is not an option.
I ain’t directly in CI stuff presently but I am looped to “funny stuff” coming through this vector. I know one of these three chaps in Kampala Court, from a distance that is – from surveillance pics and reports on him. He and several hundred others been under surveillance of some hush-hush Kenyan unit (not the ATF!) for couple months, from their one-off or repeated contacts with known and suspected sleeper cells across Kenya growing out of the Camps up north – these shadow chaps brought the uniforms into the loop on the usual need-to-know thing. Now, these chaps in Kampala Court? – nothing even close to being terrorists, their contacts with Al-Q through multiple cut-off blinds tightly compartmentalized /near airtight secure. These Al-Q chaps know their stuff, learnt it from the best in this sordid business, I tell you. Penetration and compromise damn near impossible,Period!! So what you read in the Press about UG “breaking some terror Cells, and their flooding the media with success reports” is just hype! – Probably trying to reverse this sting themselves, at best. Those chaps in custody in Kampala are mere crumbles offerings, like Mugwiira says, expendable, planted to mask the scent. Their culpability with the Kampala events at best as pack mules. UG intel has not the foggiest, chasing their tail that insidious someone is wagging for them. A chap arrested by Kenya a few metres from the Somali border a day after the Explosions? C’mon, guys!! Pinch at a time, is my sagacious advise.
Looks crooked to me…as always there has to be a missing link or something really fishy in this kind of saga. Notice how there is something connecting some keys names among them a neighbouring country,a person closely linked to a powerful person, implied connection to a known militant group and the cropping up of this story through a foreign source rather than local press? Whats the connection between all these big names?…..Smells like another disinfo campaign to me.
As concerns the Historical debate on Ecomog / Ecomil in Liberia, and possible parelles to the UPDF dilemma in Somalia, I am intrigued and enlightened by the posts by Beef-eagle, and Mugwiira’s riposite of these. I find that the arguments are really two sides of the same coin. We know that Military History is often obscured by the myriad of factors, data, that is available (and sometimes not available) for study primarily because tactical disinformation and the deliberate obfuscation of facts is a necessary strategy of War. And as each side usually tells its story, with time it results in the victor’s story taken root or acquiring a precedent in the retelling of it. But the insight offered by both of these guys is really top-of-the-shelf stuff, exactly the quality needed in this blog, and I thank them for it.
I am only out of the cage for a short while, so please allow me empty my clip all at once, guys. Talk about an escalation of UPDF involvement in Somalia, about a meatier more preemptive mandate, about increased boots on the ground (20K, M7 bragged!) etc. was rife a while ago when I went in, driven by Pat and some others. Told you this wouldn’t happen, hell, that we would stop the UPDF by Force of Arms if necessary. Well, so now it is clear that the Chapter 7 isn’t forthcoming, and the Kampala AU meet was predicable to the dot. I opined that COIN and the other CI programs we are already running inside and outside Somalia are the way to respond to Al-Q AT THIS TIME. If you have followed events lately in Somalia, you may have picked out a confusing mosaic of activity developing, some of it out of character thus far. From where I am seating, and I am damn close to it, I see not one indication of an immediate change in strategy or direction; without prejudicing present ops in-theatre, I tell you there is a hell of a lot of sanctioned activities not planned to take-off this soon that have come on-line, very heightened aggressor search & destroy extreme-prejudice sorties with anincreased latitude for local command control with each insertion stick, and our rules changed now with limitless room for interpretation of the weapons-free prerogative by these chaps. Hell, we have been at war in this theatre for a decade and we pretty much know what is needed to do are doing a damn fine job, if you ask me. Ama “D”?
@ ole Nkarei, D
The story actually found its way into Sunday Monitor, but still not into New Vision, which is unusual considering that it’s supposed to be big news:
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/968186/-/x2pnhw/-/index.html
At a second glance, there are few comprehensible details. What we are told is basically that they were traced by analyzing the pattern of cellular communications. It is not implausible that their role is being talked up by the investigators; or that the suspects assumed such importance intentionally to divert the attention of the investigators.
We are also being told that these three were arrested in Nairobi on 22nd and immediately transported to Kampala. They were only charged on 30th. Regardless of the legalities, a week is very long. If the information is true, it probably means that at the time of arrest, the investigators didn’t know which charges to prefer, and the decision was only made after a lengthy interrogation.
There is one thing which stands out as very unusual. According to the Monitor story, Hussein Agade was involved in the execution of the attacks ALONG with support and logistical activities including recruitment of suicide bombers, transportation, development of local cells and extorting finance from Ugandan Somalis.
It is well-known that those involved in “support” activities are always under close surveillance by CI organs, so no serious terror group – AQ in particular – would use these for execution of lethal attacks, which are instead carried out by several small teams, each with its specific assignment (recon, assembly of explosives, strike).
For over a week, both Vision and Monitor have only been running stories about the teenager arrested in Nairobi and identified as Issa Ssenkumba, who “provided valuable information on the links between Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda” (quite a revelation from a mere courier!). The Observer was publishing poorly edited stories about “Pakistani paymasters” and a “Yemeni mastermind”, which looked like a diversion to me. I wonder whether more surprises lie ahead..
Tis not space-science that Americans are frantically trying to spread as wide as possible the risks of unraveling their Cultural war with Islamic Civilization, desperate to open as many fronts of this as possible away from Afghanistan where they have lost all initiative and energy in the fighting, so as to extricate themselves before the inevitable rout– trust me, if they stay in Afghanistan, they will be kicked out , and this time the risks are horrendously impossible to contemplate – of a Nuclear-armed Pakistan as collateral to this imbroglio (recall how the dominoes in Indo-china dropped after Hanoi collapsed to Viet Ming forces?). So they carefully construct a “plausible’ legend of a “common clear & present danger” to our Collective Nationhood, to fool us Africans into a fratricidal war with each other that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, and whose winners remain hazed in the disinformation the Americans are spewing! Old story of the African continent since the sixties, Mugwiira; you wonder where these eloquent “updates” are coming from, and the who planted this stupid diversionary tale of the little boy they are touting in the press in UG? C’mon guy, just who do you reckon is running point in this Investigation in UG? We all know the capacity of the UG boys in CI and COIN, tis not a national secret to any one in Uniform, I dare say -a large sieve compromised by all manner of outfits. Pat asked just what metamorphosis the UG Intel chaps have undergone lately. I will eat my boots if indeed this murderous activity in Kampala is credibly proven the artwork of Al-Q – and I am not their apologist either.
Hey “D” what;s your take on the L86A1 – SA-80 ? Done any testing with your crew yet? Apt for you chaps or too gainly?
“I reject this new form of colonialism through terrorism” – M7.
And what about colonialism through counter-terrorism?
THE L86A1 – SA-80 rifle to me seems to be not necesarily a reliable weapon for use by the K A.
THERE HAVE been no sales to any other country ….only jamaica has got this weapon for its forces
THERE MUST BE A REASON WHY foreign SALES of this are very low ….most likely the cost being the leading factor..
I HOPE we are not intending to buy these wholesale because i think we can make better use of money.
@mugwiira
@tororo
@olenkerai
@beegeagle@
@”D”
I HAVE not done any input on this SOMALIA/ALLSHABAB fiasco lately…the reason being am trying to connect several dots and pieces of information that have come up and due to your varied inputs from you guys…
ONCE i feel comfortable i will respond where appropriate…but on the whole i must say the quality and variety of your inputs is very encouraging .
The L86A1 received a lot of bad publicity, mostly due to poor operation under hot and dry conditions in the First Gulf War.
http://www.historyofwar.org/articles/weapons_SA80.html
I do not know whether it’s all 100% justified, but the fact stands.
This is good reading…i have also come across many documentaries here in the UK TV channels detailing the problems with this weapons system hence my thinking that this is not ideal for kenya however the kenyans can test and see for themselves
THEY can give some to the GSU for testing who i think their basic weapons handling training in kenya is one of the best and most comprehensive.
I wonder what has annoyed president Goodluck Jonathan. He is issuing threats, may be the reason Nigeria has not lived up to her pledge of contributing troops to Somalia.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35838
The Brits got nearly 250K of these and they seem to have finally decided for the M16 as their infantry trench-tool. Typically of course the dump-site is good old Kenya. “D”, Jasiri, AT (ulienda wapi jo?)Risasi, lemme see your view on this junk, if your chaps have taken it through the paces yet. The Deltas think it is crap wouldn’t go in with it – we just did across the border and the thing stinks, guys. Mugwiira, you know any other fools using this piece of chuma as a standard? Have you any flattering reviews anywhere of it? Eeisshh!! By the way, Pat, the GSU chaps are pretty good with their standard issue AK47 (now replacing with some shorter / stockier/ lighter Korean version) and the Recce chaps preferring the AKM74 heavy in tandem with an UZI integrated silencer / HK MP5 integrated silencer for wet-work, but you really want to see those Deltas or the Rangers or “D’s or Jasiri chaps dancing with whatever their personal / preferred long gun to know just how good we’ve become!
Sometimes i just wonder, who the hell makes this decisions to buy such pieces? SA80 should be bought for the anti-stock unit and the A.P. the situational realities are changing hapa, i for one would not jump neck deep into dhobley or wherever with a catridge fed machine gun. unless we buy ’em, modify (like the jews did with the galil/AK) and make it box fed. or what say u colonel?
Apparently, Oman bought the SA-80 in the early 90’s but no longer uses it, Jamaica, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea and Romania (and probably Zim, not sure) received some free of charge.
The SA-80A1 is not without advantages, it’s reported to be well-balanced and accurate, but the problems are too many. The A2 is said to be much better, but it’s not on offer, I understand.
Another nice review of A1:
Click to access sa80.pdf
am really upset that after all the hype …i appears that it is kenyan terrorists who seemingly bombed ugandans..watching world cup….HOW BAD CAN IT GET?;
Pat, Risasi advised a cautionary approach, even opining the possibilities of internal element in the UG. But you started shooting from hip, brother, hell-bent on raining bloody hell on harpless somalis. Certainly you must know theat legends upon legends upon legends that these convoluted games of espionage is weaved from. There are no kenyan terrorists that bombed Kampala, Man. These chaps seating in courtrooms in Kampala are unlikely to know anything worthy using, being as far removed from anything of substance as any credible intelligence officer (of Al-Q or any other group) might be able to create. You end up barking up every tree in your neighbourhood, shaking your half-ripe mango trees and destroying years of CI operations with nothing to gain for it. Me, i trust the Americans as far as I can throw them!!.
it also doesn’t make sense to me. if the shabab wanted to carry out such an atack, surelly with people like Fazul and recently arrested al-americani, they would have sent in some qualified personell who would not have wasted good, and expensive, C4 due to incompetence. 2, since when did a courier know so much about al-q? it just doesn’t make sense, i belive info on such operations are on a need-to-know basis and a courier certainly needs to know nothing more than the point of the drop. 3, this represents a new M.O for the shabab. kwani weren’t this men feeling like being welcomed by 70 virgins? something is amiss here.
the whole kampala bombing saga stinks to high hell with espionage crap it has more twists than a mexican soap and truth is something never meant to be found in the near future…mark my words the drama isnt over yet.this story has stars and stripes painted all over it. as for the SA-80A1 even the brits would rather load out with an M-16 or trusty old G-3 at stony athi. the magazine on this rifle empties really quickly with very little punch, the recoil is well tempered though, comfy to handle and light weight too. what puts me off from it is its tiny internal parts and how they easily get clogged with sand and mud…bush grants worst nightmare a weapon that requires cleaning like a surgical tool.id rather stick to my mp5.ive not met the A2 yet and from what i hear no one outside the UK will any time soon.
Dang-right “D”. Tis not much more than pimped-up a lady-gun the SA-80A1. Had a near mutiny about this silly Iron during trials-under-fire recently across the other side, some chaps just dropped them in fire-fights and picked up rusty sickly AK47 off the field, man! So we come home and half my chaps haven’t the silly thing, and the QM raising hell asking where the f… his precious British toys were, and what the hell are the rusty AKs doing riding home with the Deltas!! Still haven’t put out this fire yet!. As for the A2 – that is touted as an improved version from HK, but we have tried it too and it seems to me like the story with the Land-rover 110 supposedly improvement of the Land-rover 109 Version III – you and I know there is not one improvement done, a sales pitch to sell British products that have long lost competitive value. Probably it is about time we started our own Equipment Industries, eh? Lastly, the Bandit-king will not change his stripes ever! Read between the lines of his recent his statements about “self-defense” etc..
Hitting the nail on the coffin of the SA-80:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whlIpT6zLWk
I didn’t want to refer to this video at first because they’re basically making fun of the Brits, but having read the comments from others, I feel such an attitude may be well-deserved.
Seriously ole nkeri what with the tagging of “bandit king”?And you talk about unruly manners? Like you got a few of these then I will loose all courteousness for you and you know where that will lead. That is totally disrespectful and if that is the route you are choosing so be it. When it gets ugly don’t turn around like nobody ever told you to stop.
Come on Buddy! Just a little bit of ribbing, is all. You know this is an open site, and I reckon you also know the wide readership it has gotten. I frequently transit through these countries including UG, covert, and I don’t wish my neck strung because I made direct reference by Personal Name to “someone” . My nom de plume is ole Nkarei, (tis not my real name) so I create one too for the “someone” to create deniability. That is all, really, brother Tororo. It is possible to draw a correct profile of someone from little bits such as contributions to blogs, you know, for any competent CI Outfit. Don’t take offense. Give me a code-name I can use without causing you offense or making direct reference, and I will. Sawa, bwana?
Then my appologies if you mean what you have said above
My word on it, brother. Meant every word of it. Gimme a code word that will not give offense.
All is well as long as it’s not intended as an insult. You can even call him baldie. But now I really don’t care that much since I now know your intentions. See the office of head of state carries such important significance that even for a person like me who has never taken part in any of UG’s electoral process still hold this office in high regard (it may be something indoctrinated into people here where I am) but I have seen and heard even M7 biggest critics like besigye and late obote still refer to him as president M7 when addressing him but a side nickname is not bad as long as its not intended as an insult.
How about the “Mad Hatter”?
Can we move to something else folks? This Somalia business is becoming bloody boring. After all the hype, there seems to be no change of tactics-things will go on as they currently are.
But that is exactly so, Olekoima. Give us your take on this new British Scam to off-load their now useless Infantry rifle to kenya. No mention of Somalia in last couple of days exact by yourself and Pat. Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme, as the French say, and for any strategic thinker, it is better this way than jumping head first into a situation that has not been clearly illuminated without any winning strategy except raising the body count amongst hapless nomadic civilians in Somalia, as some of you have postulated in this blog!
Thanks Ole Nkarei, i retracted my statements on the Somali issue after going through the well thought out explanations from You,’D’, Mugwiira, Mwistar and Risasi.
Will give my thoughts on the British weapon shortly. Thanks again.
Ole Nkarei your QM must be having a fit!!!i can picture his face during debrief….funny!!!but truth is that weapon in my opinion belongs in a drill line not a battle field. The british never learn, tried fooling us with the LR 109/110 trick. Then they tried shoving the very much overpriced an overated vickers MK7 down our throat good thing we didnt fall for it and now a over 200K SA80’s?….Sad part is they recommended this iron for spec forces, airborne, and ranger bttlns. Its a handsome piece but i prefer my killers ugly. We really should start our own gun factory. We all know firearms are built around its chambering, and since we already have an ordinance factory fashioning a good indeginous rifle around the trusty old 7.62mm shouldnt be out of reach. the brits should learn though that the word Kenyan and stupid are not synonymous.
@’D’, are there any customers for the Vickers MK7? Must admit i haven’t seen even a single picture of this tank.
The British it appears are kind of getting frustrated in their weapon sales that is why they are attempting to push all manner of funny stuff to their former clients.With plenty of cheaper and more potent stuff around, these customers are perhaps spoil t for choice.
Ndivyo ilivyo, bw. Olekoima. Unakumbuka ile kisa ya Landcruiser na Murungaru? By his signature of re-routing Police Transport purchase orientation to the durable hardy cheaper landcruiser, 2500 jobs lost in the Landrover factory in the south of England six month later. The fate of the first post-moi Unity Government was sealed with that one act of independence. Clock-and-dagger ops, British SIS w running riot through Kenya with a carte blanche to put the African in his place and return to the status-quo they set in Kenya when they “granted independence”. Were M-O-one Prezzy then, we would wiped out their operatives in days. We knew then, shadowed their every move, documented Audio/Video/personal statements, etc.. But the Gentleman from the “Slopes” would have nothing of such bloody wet work. The results – 2007/8 three months of Hell! But lessons learnt well, guys!! These Brits are even pushing to off-load to us Body- Armor first used with fatal consequences in Basra, and supposedly improved for Afghanistan. Always a multi-pronged effort – you take this, I give you this free, I bash you here hard, hard!! Eeiiish!! Like “D” says, time we went the Israel / South African we, and we have all we need to be just as good as them, and even earn some forex in the burgain.
Talking of body armour …by the way what sort and type do KA forces use these days?..am yet to see any soldier from KA in full body armour regalia ….other than the good old sufuria type head protection gear during those glorious march past parades…
HERE in UK any general who sends soldiers to the battlefield without any body armour risks loosing his job …the public here are so paranoid about soldiers protection that you wonder why they start wars in the first place.
Body Armor in KA are unit-specific, Pat. But again not all Units are in Harms-Way at present in Kenya. Eventually not one Uniform will be sent out without body armour. Pat, that Sufuria-type gizmo you rightly disdain isnt part of our fight-kit for years man!
Delta normally use kevlar with ceramic plating…but then again like ole nkarei says it varies on a unit to unit basis. Those sufuria type helmets are largely ceremonial or training kit.
AP News Flash “Somalia: Soldiers kill 15 militia members” Well, Pat?
Flying passed Embakasi 17 00hrs. +3 Armor pieces observed 12 o clock of 50 ACB Heli Field. Tanks types? affirmative. Olive Green/Desert tan? unclear, basking on Freight mode, Ensigns, markings vague partially covered. T-55/T-72/Vickers3 unlikely. Dimensions + + . Gentlemen Any thing? extra deliveries????. Couldn’t manage a second pass
Heh! Heh! Wacha hiyo, Riasi. Some fellas thought the Brits were overreacting by forking out to the Somali Pirates their MV Faina hit!! I posted here months ago that this ship was shadowed by Satellites and Hard Assets from its port of loading all the way to the point of Hijack, and real-time intel fed to these Somalia brigands with the exact point of intercept worked to a foot! Even the manner that the news was flashed across by the world by Networks we all know work under Intelligence Organisations of certain countries, particularly BB.. and the detail of the consignment hijacked, their point people shooting up with an incremental disinformation campaign in Kenya – the whole thing stunk of British Intelligence from the word go. What would have a measly 33 tanks done to British Arms Industry anyway? So you wonder if there has been continued deliveries, or similar and other complimentary stores? That is the only thing that would have stung the British to action in the manner they did, Risasi!! Endelea kutega masikio, bwana!!
One thing I found amusing about the Faina sager, was how the news was reported. It went like this “it is SAID that the consignment is heading for the southern sudan”. My question was it is said by who? the C.I.A ?, Mi5 ? mossad? that part was left vague and no agency come out to point a finger at our nation on the allegation. Secondly Bashir looked calm and unconcern about the whole issue with regards that these tanks were alleged for his Nemeses (SPLA). He should have been the whistle blower and hence making the most noise. But instead he was relaxed. It was a media circus aimed at publishing our Armor in public for our neighbors to see.
Hivi vifa at Embakasi had western concept unlike a soviet ones. i.e western tanks relay on bulkiness and heavy armor for protection while soviet relay on light faster tanks. I would zero them for used Challenges or leopards. Looks like some is trying to woo an old friend back and smoothen rough edges. A classic imperialistic typical approach.
N/B
The Uganda tanks that were seen on the national day parade were Chinese T85IIM and not T-62. it seems Uganda doesn’t have any t-62.
How about the Indian-configured T-80? Heavier Silhouette, squatter, slightly higher than T-72. Fits your description, buddy? The Centurion and Challengers will not be in our inventory no matter what the Brits do. Tumechanuka, joo!!
ya tumechoka nao lakini this guys are good in giving gifts and aid when you start looking away from them. ya T-80 can fit the dimensions.any way tutajua mengi after.
whats your take on katiba?
Risasi, you are actually right on the Ugandan tanks. I don’t think they have any T-62s, i have tried to search for links in vain plus none has ever been observed in action or in parade.
They have some Chinese T-85IIMs for sure, at least i have a link for these, but they are very few and perhaps for parades only.Even Sudan has a few of these too.
@Ole Nkarei, you seem not to like the idea of the Centurion or the Challenger, i thought these were decent tanks and will easily fit into our arsenal given our past defense orientation.
Besides,you cannot rule out some refurbished Centurions from India.In addition, what Risasi is saying could be true. I recently came across information that Britain plans a major downsizing of their armed forces including retiring a huge slice of the tank force and the air force where more than 50 fighter jets will be phased out. I will post the link to this. It is then possible as Risasi alleges that a ‘gift’ might bring back an old pal. Just thinking.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/defense/7931465/RAF-to-shrink-to-World-War-One-levels.html
not opening
I notice the consignment when it was at my 8 oclock couldn’t have a proper glimpse. Infact I was busy counting the MD500 on the heli port. I haven,t see such numbers parked on a standby formation. And for the blogs info they were more then 20 gunships unlike 8 as stated on the blog. They were 4 in each row and more then 4 rows in total. Plus in Nairobi’s approach we criss crossed 2 MD500 heading for the Ngong ranges, not to mention those that are in FOB at lodwar. The MD500 count is very healthy and impressive.
On the issue of the armor in question I tried drawing some prospectus but it couldn’t fit any.
1. if they were Mk3 on a stop over in Nairobi then they should be stationed at Langata or Kahawa as usual. unless they were being shipped out of the country. Tanks movements within our country is done by road/rail.
2. if they belong to the AU in Somalia why would they be in transit in Nairobi. They can be shipped/flaw directly from their capitals to Somalia
3. they didn,t seem to be olive green as expected for Kenya tanks. they looked to have a desert tan or faded green Camo. That’s why I called them used or items brought for trials or evaluation unlike new ones that would come in our desired Camo colors.
i thought that army guys could know more on them. One thing for sure they seemed larger the T-72 . N/B the MK3 and the Challenger share the same manufacture and spare parts. These are my observations and nothing official. otherwise lets wait and hear more.
It is a a pity my link above is refusing to open, however go to Google and type the words “Britain-Unprecedented defense cuts” and you will get a whole menu( from different sources) touching on what i have posted above.
Sorry again for the misbehaving link.
Caught a whiff your sighting may be Brazilian, Risasi. Under-wraps testing, their push into Africa through Kenya. Headed up north shortly. Derivatives of the good-old Vickers, similar stats and abilities to the mothballed MK3 successor. Not sure it will fly here, lakini. Hell, cannot hide smoke under a blanket no matter what! Olekoima, I have nothing against the Challenger, mate, but for the lopsided cost-benefit analysis results of it comparative to other Ordnance of equal ability and considering the size of our economy and impeding challenges facing us in the short term.
Got the point, thank you.
copied Ole Nkarei. EE-T1 Osório
not bad looks robust.
the EE-T1 Osório may not sell here unless they give some very heavily discounted prices.HELL even the brazillian army did not buy these tanks made in thier own country by private venture?..my guess .is.GOSS…
THE BRAZILLIAN army was to order 300 of these but this never happened
Just a weather balloon, guys. We aint easily duped. If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, etc.
However, in the changing geo-political realities of our region and the growing confidence of the emergent Economic Powers to mix it with the old countries, a lot of things are possible. Some of the old Cold War manuvering, sort of. Pat, from where you are seating, the heigtened activity in Puntland looks like it is orchestrated by?
There were only two prototypes of the EE-T1 Osorio that were made so i don’t think these are the tanks that Risasi saw.
In any case no one has alluded so, Risasi merely posted a remark on a possible Brazilian tank.
The two prototypes were given to the Brazilian army after the manufacturer-Engesa went bankrupt.
If i read correctly, Risasi said above that he saw 3++ tanks.
Something else other than the Osorio is possible.
@ SPIDERman, GOSS is not likely to handle western oriented weaponry any time soon. Brazilian weapons are pro-western in origin.
I think it will make a lot of sense for GOSS to stick to the Eastern origin T-55 tanks which are not only cheaper, but easy to maintain as well.
Besides,GOSS is currently in the process of converting their force into a modern army and are suffering considerable difficulties in the process, having to train in every aspect. It will amount to a total confusion to re-train in western origin tanks before they even learn to use their current inventory of eastern origin tanks.
Kenya on the other hand may not face the same bottlenecks as the young GOSS force and may find it easy to integrate eastern origin weapons as was the case with the T-72s. After all the military has been in existence for much longer and has undergone quite an extensive training on use of various weaponry.
@ole nkerai
i wish not to comment on the activities in puntland just now for very compelling reasons primarily because of some “friends” from the SOI in ISIOLO have intimated some information that binds me to keep off for a while…YOU NOTICE i have not touched that subject tangu juzi despite some kind temptations from sources herein…
tafadhali we will revisit hii maneno baadaye.
The story has changed again:
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/975852/-/x3a9u5/-/index.html
No longer feel anything but apathy towards such “news”.
But here’s something that I liked: “al Shabaab factor”. So they’re now just a “factor”?
@ Risasi – is it possible that you could not identify the 3 MBT’s due to some novel/exotic applique armor?
Kudos to the Ugandan security team. They have managed to get an explicit confession from terrorists. Something that the Americans in Guantanamo bay have failed to do. in the clip I see The head of CMI, Brigadier James Mugira, smiling sarcastically and the terrorist struggling to reciting a confession line. Kudos again Uganda secutity.
@ Mugwiira, my novelty comes in the dimensions, Camo and my perceptions of these equipments in such a base. a lot of Nitty Gritty’s way lost by the position I spotted them, at my 8 oclock and my speed which reduced the visual contact time. I could have climbed and turn but this is against the rules around JKIA. to get a good feel of my position, scroll up this blog and look at the caption picture of the F-5 taking off( amusing coincidence). a near similar position and environment. (a runway, heli field and the consignment) but In a slightly lower altitude and a straight direction. Part of the consignment was under canvas. the canvas looked smaller for the consignments or not meant for the cargo a mere temporally weather shield or partially uncovered for inspection or by curious on lookers I can,t tell. tanks silhouette shapes and guns stuck out clearly.
THE ugandans seem to take the credit for arresting the suspects and yet it is the KENYAN intelligence who procesed the inittial raw data that led to the arrests.there was no way these guys would have been arrested if KENYANS REFUSED TO cooperate with the ugandans…i guess we are in the east african community..
The entire FBI team that is said to be involved is entirely based in NAIROBI.
one wonders if there was abundance intel on these activities why no action was taken to nuetralize the threat
THE going “ons” in the somali theatre are very interesting last few days….
SOMEONE is taking out some known alshabab operatives bit by bit….and seems to be doing a good jobbo….
And whose hardiwork do you reckon this is? Eh? Kenyans are a mystifying lot, I tell you.
Pat, watch that Map and try to discern how the whole sector seethes with activity last couple of weeks, more coming weeks, from the look of things. Responding to these brigands with bravado, smoke and hot air, deployments that pleases the Masses, wasteful militarization, etc, as was popularized by a certain Head of State, is just not the way to go. Cannot win this way. Only way is to get down to their level and get real dirty, like these brigands, hiding behind a thinly veiled legalese as they hide behind their fanaticism ; You crush into their houses, you take them out in their beds, in their bathrooms, their toilets, chase them right into their hiding holes. You smoke them out and exterminate them without fanfare and drama. You send in your bad dogs to catch and decapitate them, you make them quake and pee on themselves when they look into the darkness. You tell them you are not afraid of mixing it with them -they cut off your finger, you take out their hand and their leg, you make the cost of their hostility personal to the braggart that sends out gullible impressionable young men to blow themselves up in a market-square even if their mothers were shopping in it. Then a terror-balance develops, skirmishes that are localized and manageable – not the wholesome slaughter of Kampala last month and Kenya in 1997. That is simply put, our brief, Pat.
Brilliant! I couldn’t agree more.
@mugwiira
i think the story has not changed as you suggest…my postings of 4th august at 4.45 pm on this saga seems to point to some consistency on this plot
THE EXECUTION by these men is wanting by the fact they let one unexploded device to be found hence the ability of the intelligence crew to track them through the discovered sim card on the CHEAP ALCATEL MOBILE phone handset that was meant to recieve the activation signal.
usualy most IEDs or suicide bombs are double wired to avoid failures such as these… but am told they seemed to forget to charge the battery as it had run out wile they transported these devices
SPIDERman, I see no post of yours on 4th august at 4.45 pm (?)
Otherwise, my impression remains the same as when those three Kenyans were shown to the public..
THE son of man from kogelo has said all here…and there are plans for his” homecoming” visit very soon now that KENYANS have redeemed themselves by voting without shading blood..for a new katiba.
AS the international press had pre- asumed…
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=2000016046&cid=4&ttl=US%20President%20pledges%20stronger%20ties%20with%20Kenya
@Risasi
The MD 500 kenya army 50th air cavalry full operationally working chopers are 31.
there are other 3 which were canibalsed for parts and another 3 which are kept in near brand new configuration for demo purposes.
a good number about seven have been lost in various activities..including accidents over the years since the early 80s..
two of these crashed at the height of the war against poarching when the CinC at that time moi ordered the army to help KWS to crush the poarchers
The MD 500 was very effective here and am told at that time the poachers dreaded the sound of an approaching MD 500 AS THEY had nowhere to hide even under bush and trees as the thing easily smoked them out.
@ole nkerai
i notice that someone has attemped to update kenyas military information on wikipidia….but there are some errors…
THEY SEEM to place the MD500s under the AIRFORCE…but as far as i knew the MD500s are operated by the army hence the separate base at embakasi 50thACB?
have things changed or what…?
I know the original delivery from the states was 50 aircraft in total.
what happened to the orIginal GADU ?are they still under the airforce?or the army took over that role when the 50thair cavalry unit was configured mwanzoni?
Ya +/- 30 are approximately right about on the number. Ni nazi hesabu mwenyewe . Some piece were lost in active duty lakini wa swahili huu sema Inzi kufaa juu ya kidonda ni kawaida. Ama vipi? A guy called chinock was suggesting 8 examples only. 50 is very much KA & GADU gave birth to ADCU (Air Defence Control Unit ) KAF in the mid 8ties. ndugu yangu ulikuwa lini nyumbani?
MAZE sio kitambo sana left the main job ya kuserve 1992after starting in1983 after my then boss retired.(his name was kanyotu)..then joined civilian security under UN/ICRC/IFRC Up to 2002 and was involved in un activities all over the region up to sri lanka..etc and moved my family to UK 2003 AND FINALY joined them fully 2005.
was in kenya brief periods doing politically sensitive things 2002,2007 kidogo kidogo.but nothing life threatening…mainly advosory
i hope not to release any more …..some people maybe nervous already…
my first born son is serving the BRITISH army ..now…
Some interesting reading. I wonder whether it will open though. Good luck.
@Olekoima
thanks for very interesting reading…most of it is WELL known news but the most surprising is the acquisition by libya the S300 MISSILE system from RUSSIA. and the S35 FIGHTERS
I really wonder why the rusians suspended any delivery of the s300 to IRAN but are willing to supply libya so quickly?
could be a smokescreen ….since libya is not under any threat and therefore such an advancecd weapons system is not really needed by them…
Pat, wewe ni wetu, atakama ume-move wapi. Kikiumana,uta-serve tena, ama? Kanyotu, eh? Always thought you were a Intel Analyst, buddy!! Wikipedia is an academic website, with as much supposition as facts – there is an open invitation to “update” the post on each item. Use your pinch-at-a-time sages’ on this site. However, as our aggressor-responses changes from a massed deployment reaction to small specialized insertion & extraction units, and as these have continued to justify themselves by their kill-rate and effectiveness of deterrence & response, the MD500 evolves and continues to evolve, and now the Deltas ride to theatre; insertions of each stick by a MD500 are extremely quick and precise. Extraction too is equally fast and precise – the dang thing can practically put down anywhere, including on top a tree, kinda!! Suppression matriculation of a hot EZ with these little birds in cross-combat support for beleaguered small Insertion teams are awesome– a 20 Mike-Mike actually mows down a forest of real trees, a real death-dealer to Mortars crews, anything that is aimed at me. Good Jockeys will get in before the bad guys over the EZ even knows they are there, pick you off the ground and vanish before their disbelieving eyes! It is an air- Ferari, if you ask me.
@ole nkerai
you are right … am ready and wiiling to serve my country come rain or shine if called upon
I MUST SAY my late boss was never happy when he was forced to leave after the repeal of section 2a in 1992.HE asked and was allowed to leave with his entire core staff who included bodyguards, drivers,secretaries and a few select top staff who were to be seconded to him for a further five years for specific purposes.I was seleted and served for three with him “james” .i mainly liased with his “contacts” and actual “courier” work .some of the job would make a holywood scripwriter very proud.remember this was a man who run the system for intell gathering for motherland for 27 years….until 1992.
I CAN TELL you I Knew EVERY street,chochoro,alleyway,mtaro,every dark alley in nairobi,kisumu embu,mombasa,nakuru,eldoret ,kakamega etc
I HAVE LIVED several lifestyles such that it was hard to be normal..
MY wife who is a devout christian thanks god all the time that am no longer disappearing for days bila mpango. i really miss his advice at times and considerable attention to detail….MAY GOD BLESS HIS SOUL …am planning a visit before year end and will endevour to make contact with some of you valued bloggers …ASANTENI sana
@ Risasi – are you 100% positive these were tracked vehicles?
Ole Nkarei, i told you to drop me a line but it seems you were busy. or didn’t you get the mail correct? its .-. .- .–. – — .-. .-.-.- …– —– .—- @–. — .- .. .-.. .-.-.- -.-. — — am around for some r&r and your offer is still up.
@Jasiri , had to scout around you, buddy, sniffed around, casing you, just in case… don’t wanna get burnt, you know. Needed to be sure of some things.. hell, and I reckon you know what I am getting at!! But I will make contact, not to worry. Have a good idea what you want, mate!! How long your r&r this time?
not dat long, about two weeks hivi. N i admire the cautionary approach.
SLIGHTLY off topic….
there are signs of increasing tentions in the KOREAN peninsula…and UNCLE SAM IS seemingly stocking the flames…..what would be the repurcusions if the spark ignited
some interesting readings here…
http://www.rense.com/general37/nkorr.htm
Americans are worse than Somalis(somali somalis not kenyan somalis) just the ither day they were holding naval exercises with Vietnam! who would have thought that possible ten years ago? i believe though they are under estimating China’s role in the wider scheme of things. if a war breaks out in the East, the Americans might be up for some rude shock. the chinese are serious this time.
enlightening article
@ SPIDERman – as for Russian arms sales to Libya, contracts have only beed signed for the following:
1. 6 x Yak-130
2. Upgrade of 145 T-72 MBT’s
3. A small arms plant for production AK-100 series guns (it’s an old project which had been frozen some time ago)
The contract for 12-15 Su-35’s is expected to be signed before the end of 2010. Libya may however have to settle for Su-30MK2 for now because Su-35 is not yet in serial production.
The S-300PMU2 sale is only being discussed. Nothing material yet.
There are no sanctions in case of Libya, nothing contentious abt anyone selling to them. However, seeing how they are going after the biggest and most expensive toys, they seem unaware how politicized and disorganized their armed forces are, and how poorly most of their systems are serviced.
i can’t shake this suspicion that libya is being used as a proxy for iran. if anyone thinks that iran will be held back by resolutions or russia will be bound by some agrreement signed in some air conditioned office over tea they are wrong. remember most of russia’s customers are rogue, in the western sense, and russia needs to assure them it can deliver. this missiles might be for Iran. Isn’t it funny though that iran isn’t concentrating on bolstering it’s fighter jet force?
“remember most of russia’s customers are rogue, in the western sense”
That’s a misconception. The #1 buyer of Russian arms is India, followed by China, then Sotheast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam). Among major customers only Syria is “rogue, in the western sense”. Venezuela, also a major customer, is in reality far from “rogue”, their oil business with the US is proceeding smoothly.
There has been talk of Syria being a “proxy” recepient for Iran, but that’s just talk. The real issue here is that Syria is on good terms with Iran, and if it gets modern AD, it can deny the US and Israel the opportunity to strike Iran from that direction.
Iran ceased to be a prominent customer since the late 90’s, in fact it had bought more from China than Russia since then. There have been negottations over S-300, and over Buk and Tor, but with caution; for Russia, Saudi Arabia and UAE are now much more attractive potential customers in the region.
Also, despite the business done together, there’s not much trust between Russia and Iran.
So I’m 99,9% sure that whatever may go to Libya will go to Lybia.
yeah …thanks for your clarifications….actualy idid not look into this report very deeply…but only picked up the S300 issue on the outset.
DO YOU THINK the RUSSIANS will FULLFILL ANY deals for this system to be sold to libya?
THE iranians had even paid up some 800 million dollrs for this system but due to pressure accasioned by a powerfull pro isreal lobby in the western world the USA is PUSHING THE RUSSIANS and seems to have succeded in stopping any deliveries to TEHRAN
Quite recently in Fort Bragg during some grading classes on counter-terrorism, and counter-insurgency operations, and such like maneno, we went through just such a Strategic Paper presentation by some Iraqi “think-tank”( if you want to abuse the terminology) in reaction to their intended Invasion of Kuwait. Three things were clearly evident then, and are similarly evident in this silly paper by the Korean (1) the similar deficiency in independent assessment of the Military Establishment in both countries due to the absolute Political corruption of it’s Structure, reducing the Military Establishment to mere sycophantic choir-boys for the Political Establishment, (2) the Military Paper was only a justification for the Political Decision to Invade Kuwait, as a reaction to it, and hence without real Military Value – it said what the Politicos wanted to hear! (3) the delusional content which only the Political Class in both countries couldn’t / can’t discern coz in effect it justified their Political positions.A War in the Korean Peninsula definitely would have nuclear ramifications, and the opening salvos fired by the NKR because that would probably be their only opportunity to inflict any sizeable harm / damage on the Forces against them – every sort of Military Equipment, their production lines and Men in Uniform, would without doubts be obliterated by the Americans within the first minutes / hours of open war. Considering the possible Fall-out Area extending across most of the Peninsula into China Proper, the Indochina, Japan and parts of Russia, I dare say even NKR’s chances of landing any of their touted Nuclear Missiles anywhere are probably next to Nil – neither the Chinese nor the Russians are asleep to this danger and have separate / independent aggressive strategies to counter it decisively. NKR is bull-sh.. with this nonsensical piece, period!! Libya has no use for its Military, and its population so pampered that War to them in a complete anathema. These arms are for the Iranians, in my estimation.
Click to access north-korea-crisis.pdf
Moreover, geopolitically, the Russians are fighting an encirclement (the nonsensical expansion of NATO Eastwards, new ties with formerly enemy-states, wars in the Islamic Russian Urals, etc)that is surreptitiously being weaved by the Americans using all manner of plausible excuses, one of them being what the Americans roughly define as “ Rogue States” mainly clustered around Iran and North Korea. They managed to snuff out the fires in the Urals to a large extent, by using the very same tactics of mixing it with the murderous gangsters who pose as freedom fighters with a simple policy of a tooth-for –a-tooth, a-limb-for-another, very much like our Deltas are prosecuting in our neighborhood. But, an excuse to ratchet the tension-bar against the Americans with exports through a third country also newly enticed away from the Russian fold by the Americans, Libya, of such a defensive shield as would allow a limited pre-emptive launch of Iran’s formidable Offensive Missiles ( if only as a statement before defeat), is one that only a stupid Strategic Planning Russian General would fail to take. This Arms sale to Libya dovetails with the yesterday’s announcement that the Russians were about to start the very first Iranian Nuclear Reactor WITH RUSSIAN-SUPPLIED NUCLEAR FUEL RODS, at the moment that the Americans are running circles everywhere trying to stop just such a move by everybody else. Move to Russia this time, I reckon!!
http://wfol.tv/stop-nato/4992-russia-supply-fuel-to-irans-nuclear-plant.html
the colonel is saying it exactly as i think it. Russia is now concerned with NATO’s move eastwards. the us is a prime member of NATO. if it arms Iran, either covert or overt, they can cure themselves even if temporarily of the u.s headache. Ivan can deal with an americanless NATO very decisivelly. Russia’s primary concern is the us carrier groups but with the activation of their navy bases in Tartus, Tripoli and Socotra the primary preocupation of the us navy carrier task forces would be to protect the oil routes. if the us navy sticks to the mid-east then iran with the blessing of russia will definatelly harass the us navy. So for me, the Iranians will get the s-300 missiles one way way or another.
by the way read tom cancy’s red storm rising. It is about a Nato Vs Ussr war scenario. although it’s fiction it provides valuable scenarios to learn from.
….thanks although i have not read novels for a long time…(since i read too much real stuff anyway)… i have just spend £6.99 pounds and odered this book…..to read what TOM CAME UP WITH …
Gentlemen, you can forget about the “Russian S-300 for Iran” story, at least for now. Russia has already played this card, the deal was abandoned in exchange for START-III. It is also rumored the US has promised not to cause “unnecessary obstacles” to Russia’s arms sales to Gulf countries. Note that Russia stopped the sale even though AD systems are “defensive weapons” and essentially not subject to the UN embargo.
The Persians are furious and have accused Russia of “betrayal”, but who cares?
This is too good a deal for Russia to waste becasue of smth funny like smuggling arms through Libya. Especially through Libya, which is not known for its exceptional CI capability, and with a leader like Ghaddafi.
Iran may already have received the S-300 from “other sources”. I personally think that’s just bluff, but who knows..
AND, the Bushehr project as currently implemented is of no use to Iran’s nuclear arms program. The Americans know this too well, they just want to punish Iran and to hurt Rosatom which is a competitor to GE and Westinghouse.
personally i think these start treaty is just a pile of fresh cowdung generating interest to dungbeetles(diplomats) but of no significant importance to wasps(soldiers). honestly how many nukes does it take to destroy us or russia? less than 500? now if u reduce you stock piles from 5000 to 3000 isn’t that still irrelevant? it’s like saying you have 30 bulletts but as a favour you’ll kill him with only 15. it’s still an overkill considering 1 bullet can be fatal. but that’s just a by the way. let’s get back to eastern africa.
Before going back to East Africa: 500 or 5000 matters if you add strategic BMD into the equation.
It is all one complicated Chess Game, Mugwiira, and I think you know that too. Nothing is real, and everything seems real. We are just chess pieces being moved around by these guys, and in strategic planning, you play deep, so deep there is sometimes no light where the first move is started. Jasiri is right, let’s keep this dialogue relevant to us in the Greater Lakes / Eastern Africa.
AND SO KAMPALA BOMBING THE SAGA continues like a soap opera ….
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/news/InsidePage.php?id=2000016172&cid=159&story=Kenyan%20arrested%20over%20bombings
THE Kampala saga …am reliably told that from the confessions and statements so far deduced from the suspects and from the string that led from the un-expLoded Simm card and phone IMEI recovered from the scene in KPLA..there are over 1966 phone contacts to chase of which at least 123 are foreign.ie beyond AFRICAN borders,1024 are within Kenya,467 in Uganda,21 in Tanzania and the rest in Rwanda and Burundi.
IT IS a mamoth job trying to piece these contacts to come u with a list of would be CHARACTERS THAT form a terror profile.
THE FBI and a small band of CI chaps from the CIA are providing all the logistics and funding for this investigation
this ones have to be the most stupid terrorists ever empoyed! how can you save such important contacts on a phone you want to blow up anyway? this guys are amateurs.
you may be right…but what is happening is that the simm card that was meant to acitivate the explosives was forensically scanned and a number of “dead” calls were attributed to certain peoples cell phones.these people were traced by getting their details and therefore all their phone records and all phone details obtained.
this is why the scope is wide.
any phone number on the individuals phone book is considered suspect until the process of elimination is over
MOST of them could be just friends and relatives..who are innocent.. FOR instance if someone was to investigate my phonebook ..i have over 900 entries..so you the idea?
jasiri…see the link
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=2000016185&cid=4&
….AND HERE comes the south africans….they are at the planning stages…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/15/south-africa-troops-somalia
The South Africans have been in Burundi with a Kenyan Contingent now couple years. From all accounts, they are pretty much a nondescript over-funded Unit! They are not happy to be so irrelevant in Africa with such little Geopolitical and Economic Influence, which surprises only South Africans themselves that with an economy the size of all Black Africa they have made such little egress into Black Africa in the past 15 years of black rule. Anyone who has worked closely with a South African Outfit including the SADF will attest that their gravest weakness is their Racial History which separates them to date. Both side have accepted that this divide is impossible to bridge and that keeping the other Race out is not discrimination and perfectly normal. In fifteen years since Independence, white South Africa have grown wealthier by 25% (despite their increasing population) while Black South Africans are 19% poorer than under Apartheid!! And as the years go, the Racial Divide grows with it, and positions hardened as the Whites use every manner of equipment and trick to maintain their stranglehold on South African. Ergo, the racist mentality, philosophy, attitudes permeate all thinking and all activity in South Africa including their disciplined forces – forget the feel-good propaganda and media creations we are all treated to of a united south Africa. Now tell me, if you were given command of a battalion of troops no matter how well trained and armed, from a society that has so institutionalized divisiveness as as perfectly as today’s South Africa, and you start taking casualties in the ranks, and fighting for your lives each moment of the day, as will definitely happen if and when they deploy to Somalia, how would you possibly hold these fractious troops together to ensure some of them get home eventually? Eeeiissh!!!
@ole nkerai
you are right to be skepticall about these south africans…my personal expereinces with them left me with a bad taste…they still suffer from this inferiority complex of fear of the mzungu…
i have once been called upon to travel to joburg to help identify a suspected kenyan “whitepouder” smuggler some years soon after their so called independance
WHAT HAPPEENED was that they seized a guy with a fake ZAMBIAN passport at jobourg transitting to kenya.when he was questioned and his luggage checked he was found with 60 thousand rand in cash
THE man claimed to be kenyan since they wanted to send him to zambia.HE REFUSED insisting he is kenyan
HIS PASSPORT Showed he had travelled by road from namanga,then passed via TZ into zambia via kapiri mposhi…flew from lusaka into namibia ..then travelled by road into south africa WITH THIS ZAMBIAN PASSPORT all this journey took 9 weeks.
i SPOKE to the chap at lenghth ..got his fingerprints sorted and was able to determine his kenyan claim ..NEXT WAS to convince the south african police who were at that very much stll mzungu like.
the whole thing took three weeks to sort out ..it was later confirmed the kenyan was actually just an innocent business man who done some job for some fellows down south and they had not paid him ..hence he had to find ways to travel down and claim his money
THOSE guys did not believe this story because the guy was not caucasian…and people of his type never had such money on thier person unless obtained dubiously…
….DURING this time i visited some pubs and hotel and found those places still found it hard to admit a black man and getting service was very intimidating….indeed they found my KENYAN ,arrogance very frustrating …and strange….
ANATOMY OF THE PLOT..
X=explosively rigged alcatel phone
Y=source phone number from the activator caller
B,Z,C,Dand etc= are activators accomplices?friends phone numbers..
THE SCENARIO
the investigators find the unexploded alcatel phone rigged with IEDs which is X in my illustration
They then put the simm card into another live phone and are able to get” dead” or incompplete calls coming from the source activator phone Y by sourcing this from the mobile network providers repeatedly around the time the other bombs went off.
ARRESTS
they then zero in onto Y who is arrested AND his phone seized…
calls made by Y are forensically scanned and this in turn reflects activitiy between Y and accomplices B,Z,C AND D
they are all traced through their normal phone activity AND meanwhile the main culprit is singing like a bird while in custody..
NET CLOSES
when they are bought together ..they all break down and
produce more material…hence the interesting MEDIA presentations in KAMPALA.
CONCLUSIONS
i think the planners here did not expect the one bomb faillling to go off which had it succeded… would have made it harder for the investigaters to move fast since there could be no immidiate evidence to start with.HAD the akcatel phone blown up the device no evidence would have found ..
TO me the financiars of this operation failed to adequetelly provide proper funds AND PLANNING so that this thing could have worked properly….
ALL those phone contacts in Y,D,C,Z etc phones are What constitutes the bulk of 1966 names to be investigated and eliminated…AND
so the SAGA CONTINUES…
In which case the cleverer thing would have to use non commissioned phones / sim cards for both X and Y to cover all tracks clean.
Maybe it was not in the budget 🙂
IT is interesting to note that before the dots and links were connected ..lots of innocent people were caught in the dragnet as result of the knee jack reaction from the guys in KAMPALA…
the …kenyans provided the vital leads….
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/976570/-/x3avun/-/index.html
what does my friend @ tororo
think about this letter shown on this link?
he seemed to be upset every time @ole nkerai had ago at M7..
http://www.monitor.co.ug/Magazines/-/689844/972512/-/nq984w/-/index.html
@risasi…
i could not resist this one..a whisper to the effect that the ZW 9 WILL fly past UHURU park plus more on 27th august…..i hope someone carries a good camera along…
@ SPIDERman – no need to insert any SIM’s anywhere. Each SIM (Subscriber Identification Module) and each PHONE have an individual number which is recorded each time a connection is established with the cell network. You just go to the provider’s logs and search.
When a mobile phone is turned on, its SIM and PHONE nubers would give away which cell it is located in.
Therefore if you want to use cell-phone based detonators, the rule is to use disposable phones and SIM’s registered in fake names, and not to activate from your home cell.
However, in Uganda, phone and SIM numbers are not registered, except that (at MTN) they may ask you to provide your ID details and store these when replacing a lost SIM or doing certain service operations (like unlocking GPRS).
They are however introducing phone registration with the new comms interception bill.
I don’t know what the truth here is, but a serious and promising investigation link would’ve never been disclosed to the public by any competent investigator, because that would allow the terrorists to establish very accurately to which degree their network has been compromised. They may then evacuate or eliminate compromised elements BEFORE the investigators reach them.
the link was given out to the public on the first day the undetonated bomb was discovered…and 70 percent of all the suspects were arrested in kenya.
majority of all phone logs were tracked in kenya..that why the ugandan police chief made a hasty visit to kenyas police boss to obtain more robust cooperation..
..and you can bet there are now hundreds of discarded phones lying in pit latrines and similarly hundreds of simm cards being thrown or flushed down the toilets..
by the way am yet to come across disposable phones being sold in africa…as in most cases a phone purchase by most africans is a major asset or investment….
HOWEVER IN south east asia especially south korea and HONG KONG you can walk into a phone shop and buy a phone and air time for single use only..then just bin it after you no longer need it…
Spiderman – its not that I was protecting M7 as a person but it was the office of the president of Uganda being “attacked” that I didn’t feel comfortable with. It’s like someone coming to and says president kibaki or PM Odinga is a murder, rapist, bandit etc because of 2007 – you will go wait a minute, I know he has his short comings but that is not true besides why not treat the office that he holds with the respect that it deserves. Am not saying you don’t criticize the person but you should not get abusive. One thing most Africans don’t get is respecting institutions and that’s why there are all these problems as intrigue and corruption eating away. Personally am still inclined to believe that the bombings in KLA were LET to happen for some unscrupulous reasons but not because the intelligence failed. Its like these people were “lead” to these targets. They themselves say the targets they wanted were suddenly over protected. So someone knew this was going to happen but wanted to use this event for gain. I am quietly waiting for a friend to get back to DC , get his side of the story and compare with what I know. Hopefully I can get a quick break and make a quick trip on ground and get some clues myself
“One thing most Africans don’t get is respecting institutions”.
For once I fully agree with you, Tororo. Note however the layman won’t respect institutions (and laws, Law is also an institution) unless people in power do. 😉
AND, I’d rather replace “most” with “many”.
One thing that I may add that is “so African” is this business of someone loosing a race then turning around and calling the winner a cheat – not knowing how to concede defeat even in the smallest arenas of sport. Now look at the Ug opposition leaders who are being told time and again. Take your message to the people who vote instead they are here in NY, DC and Europe (and looks like Washington has told them they are tied of the whining) and come end of their elections they are going to try and blame everyone but themselves for loosing, crying about” rigging”, Absolute stupidity. And this partly because of refusing to respect and understand the various institutions.
Since time immemorial, war has always been the great equalizer of men, coz death is no respecter of social distinctions and superiority pretentions. The Prince and the Serf are one, Period, same type of bullet will take each out if they stick their heads out too far. A mortar round gives equal attention to all it touches regardless of colour, etc.. As Risasi, “D”, Jasiri, and others who have been in harm’s way and come back home, in pieces or whole, life-time bonds of blood are formed, stronger than those of birth and family. The guy on your left shoulder is the most important person on earth then, your individual survival collectively your efforts – you intentionally draw fire to yourself if that will keep the Unit functional. You trust him explicitly, he yells “chini” and you bloody well do that immediately, without thinking. You hear that ugly word “grenade” and you hit the floor NOW – you haven’t the luxury of asking if it was shouted in broken English or in Afrikaans English. That is what defines a Fighting Unit, compact, tight, deadly, ONE. Single-thinking/single-movement! That is what ails the SADF, as it did with Naadoos , Steers, and many other South African Ventures in Kenya – personal ability is not defined by output but by social distinctions and colour. I would not want to serve in any jointly-commanded deployment with these chaps, I tell you!!
DOES anyone remember when a blandering newly elected NARC government in kenya bowed to international pressure when they allowed south african police units into kenya to protect the teams that were playing some international cricket test marches in parklands sports club nairobi…?boy oh boy ? i was so angry…to see this happening..and from the antics they displayed we could have done a much better job…rather than watch those guys just showing off strutting around..dressed like ninjas…in broad dayligjht..I have never forgiven the then minister for security murungaru for stooping that low..
@ SPIDERman – any phone which you use only once is essentially “disposable”. Even iphones are disposed of when used for covert operations; and they are, because despite proliferation of proxy servers, VPN’s, existence of Tor and I2P networks, use-once phones registered in fake names are still the best way to communicate anonymously over the Web. It may seem expensive, but to own a chain of VPN’s and no-logs proxies is much more costly!
I’ve just realized. You don’t need elaborate stuff like disposable phones where you have disposable terrorists..
this is self explanatory…nothing new here..
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/New%20front%20opened%20in%20war%20on%20terror%20/-/1056/977346/-/7qtgmxz/-/index.html
The Turks have a classic case of a backyard mess that has acquired a life of it’s own and which threatens the Nationhood of Turkey, such as we face with Somalia. An insurgency that was started by and encouraged for the Americans to pressurize the Turks into an accommodation that remove them from the confluence of Nations opposed to the State of Israel and eventually into some sweetened accommodation that was benign if not friendly to the Israel. And what a coup it was – the largest and most progressive Islamic-cum European Nation in the world at peace with Israel, with extensive economic and even military relationship with a nation that most of Islam declares a blight on the face of the Earth!! So that anti-israeli noises die progressively down till those that remain are treated like rabid dogs one needs to shoot to save from further misery – Iraq, and now Iran. So that even the callous but understandable raid (from a military point of view) of that Turkish liner couple of weeks ago heading to what they blithely described to the world as food and medical supplies to GAZA does nothing to turn American resolve to their strategy, and now the sons of Kogelo Issues open warnings to the Turkish President to tone down his anti-israeli rhetoric or face the music – suspension of Military/financial aid that Turkey desperately needs to subdue the PKK, particularly of the long-sought-after unmanned drones manned with the deadly Reaper that Turkey has sold it’s soul for, and which is so vital to them now that he Israelis have suspended their supply of their “heron” pilotless Aircraft to the Turks since their spate over that Israel commando raid on the Turkish freighter. Not so overtly mentioned is the American threat to re-ignite their original materiel support of the PKK that brought this horrible cauldron to boil in the first place!! So, it is instructive to see this Libyan/Iranian thing from just this perspective.
WITH Iran actively improving its air defence capabiity…ISREAL have moved to acquire the F35 stealth fighter from the USA from 2015 when first deliveries are expected
http://www.globalpost.com/breaking-news/global/israels-barak-approves-us-f-35-fighters-purchase
by the way Ive always wondered… what happened to the other prototype? (the F35 was the winning one in battle of the x planes), would Boeing be compelled not to make a production fighter plane of similar repute as thf F35? or would the plans be folded up and shelved for future use by the USAF….
Some weird news:
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/980698/-/x3saoe/-/index.html
Uh-ho.. They also say the’ve charged 32 more, so the total is now.. 38!
Which serious terror attack is this that involves dozens of people? It starts looking weird.. and here comes the ban!
It seems they’re picking anyone even losely connected to the locally bred islamist network and beating confessions out of them.
That’s why in countries with at least a semblance of due legal process they rarely try terrorists. You cannot get convictions because if the suspect has a lawyer or basic legal knowledge, and he’s not under physical pressure 24/7, he will disown his confession and say it was forced. Hard evidence is hard to get by. For example, the “phone contacts” story mentioned in this particular case may be a valuable investigation lead, but is practically useless in Court.
Thus usually the big fish is eliminated while the small fish is ignored. The big fish is apparently out of reach for UG guys, so they chose to go after the small guys. They want to please M7 by showing that they have destroyed a “terror network”, but in reality, they’re just producing more homegrown suicide bombers among these detainees’ relatives.
What a waste of resources.
Ugandan intell is disgracing the trade, 38! and more are still coming i presume.
@ SPIDERman – the anti-Shabaab raids mentioned by you seem to be limited in purpose and look like punitive action – in order to show that the cost of future attacks abroad will be high, making these not worthy in most circumstances.
Which to me looks good enough, but shouldn’t be seen as an ultimate solution.
You’ve mentioned the Daily Nation article which recites the one published by NYT. It is, to a degree, misleading. Have a look at the original:
First, little attention is devoted to Somalia as compared to (especially) Yemen and Pakistan. The Nation article reverses this.
Second, there seems to be no medicine for the overall condition of these troubled places.
Third, such operations are a double-edged sword.
On one hand, destroying terrorist operatives limits the “terror projection” capabilites of these guys. On the other, it antagonizes the locals, makes authorities appear as mere American stooges, and plays into the hands of the insurgency.
So costs and benefits have to be weighed, and this “point strike” tactic is not a panacea.
This NYT article should thus be viewed as pro-Democrat and pro-CIA, as it gives a lot of good publicity to an approach which, even if helpful, has serious limitations.
In the Somali case, such operations had not been conducted for several months despite intel being available. Apparently, because these have shown to have little impact on the Shabaab’s military capability while spoiling the TFG’s image in the eyes of the locals.
What really puzzles me here is the mentioning of TZ..
http://256news.com/page.php?aid=1482&caid=9
the mess that is the east african community. i said this thing was doomed and ea countries are falling over themselves to prove me right. but at least it makes for interestin news.
@mugwiira
THE NYT artcicle is first and foremost aimed at the local consumption in the USA and MIDDLE EAST mainly to showcase an endless enemy and an endless war on terror so that SECONDLY, the MIIDLE EAST continues to be the fulcrum for this war…and thirdly the USA may justify to VOTERS at home the continued sacrifices of men, material and money in this region.
ANY events in EAST AFRICA ARE A SIDESHOW to them ..because to them the american public ALQDA is the enemy number one… sadly to us in east africa we continue to lose lives and limbs in this unfolding scenario
..and by the way all my previous illustrations on this posts on the kampala bombing arrests and subsequent events are NOT and were not conclusive
in any repects
THE TZ and rwanda angle is surprising and a poor smokesscreen of the real activities going on here
there IS no reson for TZ to be jealus of a country like rwanda which in comparison to TZ is the size of a small district for all intents and purpooses….
There is speculation that OBL has long since succumbed to kidney failure, or other such ailment, and that AQ today exists merely as a brand name, a franchise, an ideal used by local malcontents such as AQIM to grab the headlines and by the Son of Kogelo & predecessors to justify their policies.
Anyone?
@viitruvian
am looking at some deep holes on the status of the tall bearded fellow since DUBYA sent his bunker busting bombs to level out the Tora Bora Mountain ranges …and hopefully will smoke something out.
,,,but one thing is for sure..yanks will never pull another stunt like the one they did on the sunni big man who once run Baghdad…ati claiming they found him cowering in a spider hole……ukweli ni kwamba kuna uvumi mimi nilisika chini sana… watu wa huyo mzee wali muuza and sasa walipewa completely new maisha pamoja na kila kitu huku kwa uncle sam….waishi under usalama rest of their lives?
spiderman, i am inclined to believe in your tale about the bearded sunni. kwanza for a man as resourcefull as he was to be found cowering in a hole like a rat is an insult to our intelligence. then to make matters worse the want us to believe ati they chinjad him! ha! but i applaud them for the anonymous cell video trick where we see him hangig like goat ribs in kikopey.
MUHOOZI and his men at work in KARAMOJA:
http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/africa/east/Ugandan-Army-Denies-Torture-Allegations-101010674.html
NOW
NOW muhoozis mother comes out defending her pampered son….where will this circus end up?
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/980708/-/x3sb8v/-/index.html
What is this again? 40,000 troops needed for the Somalia mission? This is defeatist:-
http://www.newvision.co.ug/D/8/20/729173
Looking for a pretext to get out? I wonder why even discuss this if there’s no way they can raise 40,000 troops.
Imagine if M7 was Obama, and Mugisha was Mcchrystal..
may be it is time LT colonel muhoozi was sent with his men in to help this mugisha fellow in mogadishu instead of chasing hapless cattle rustlers in the karamojong?.
M7 will have justified muhoozis fast promotion and besides if his men clobber the alshabab …then just like magic..he gains unparalled credibilty and returns home a hero…problem of successsion sorted…mama and baba retire in piece to banyankole land….
send in 2 brigades of ka and c the fire works
256news.com is an UG Intel website. You know how a Hippo masks its trail when out of water? Easiest way to track any animal including enemy troopers in deadly silent combat is by body excretions – liquid and solids. Hardest thing to do is to mask these when you are object of a search-and-destroy, trying to evade stay alive. How do you do your you-know-what and what do you do after you have done it? Hard choices you gotta make, some I wouldn’t want to share with chaps with easy tummies. However, ingenious Hippo simply wags its tail at high velocity when it defecates and scatters all contents far and wide, in semi-liquid state from the “whisking”, which are rapidly picked by beetles, weevils, snails, worms, absorbed into the soils, and is as quickly gone. You get to pick up the scent, but not the direction of movement – that you need light to see the spoor / trail made by the Hippo. UG Intel is the hippo, splashing around this nonsense of guilt all over the place, planting disinformation to lure and entice, to masks the directionless nature of its inquest into this bombing. Without input from Kenya, they have squat – nothing. But the Masses must be fed, and the bandit-king (no insults intended) along with them. But again, this replicates in Rwanda as well, similar Military preponderance in national influence and philosophy as in UG, same background and similar trajectory of growth. Rwanda has little development to make anyone envious, a factor that is not even masked by the intensity of the Western Media / Government propaganda. Indeed, Rwanda is social-economically a few steps LESS developed than a decade ago prior to the events of 1994!! Rwanda had made little viable and sustainable progress , not even on the contextual understanding and then sorting out the causes of their inglorious fratricidal tendencies of the last century – no retrospective examination of the latest round in 1994 has taken place yet in Rwanda or outside it. The superficiality of their supposed progress isn’t conjecture to careful observation, and for Rwanda Military Spokesman to have attributed this as a cause for envy by TZ and UG as reported is preposterously simplicity. Helas, I wouldn’t be surprised though if a tit-for-tart did not continue taking place with the two countries, with similarly dastardly consequences on their civilian populations as recently, before the two strong men meet and shake hands, again, – and good many of us will never quite know whence came these bombs / grenades. Machiavelli to the last, these two strong men are.
Exactly. 256news is run by the Red Pepper guys. The latter has long been known as a sink for flushing UG intel produced semi-information along with outright disinformation. A lot of it has been crude enough however to give an insight into their thinking at times.
The question is not really whether TZ is involved, but why mention them? Who would buy this story really? Probably no double bottom, just a very poor fabrication, as suggested by SPIDERman..
Mugwiira, I am certain you are knowledgeable and worldly enough to know that all conflicts are ignited intentionally to serve somebody’s purposes, generally of the dominant civilization / block of people. It saps the energy and concentration of possible competition and detracts their national growth to stagnation and dependency, as well as buys time before the table gets crowded with shouts for equity. The EAC has clear potential to actualize this Center of Africa Block pivoting around Kenya. But first we must end internal conflicts within each nation-states, then eliminated tensions and untenable competition between the states, and eventually avoid duplications in national spending from our meager national resources – such as competition for sea access through different unsustainable routes. This and many others will without any doubt release us from the domination of the Old- and New economies, as we look towards ourselves for markets , resources and solutions / innovations. So, who is accusing TZ of the perennial Rwandaise grenade attacks and what do they stand to gain? Who is behind the genocidal tyranny in Rwanda and the Eastern Congo? Who has ensured the DRC never has peace for the past 50 years? I marvel at the naivety of our politico-leadership in the sixties that they so easily and shamefully embraced our tormentors and enslavers of many generations as if indeed God had created a new spirit and nature in them. The thirst for Resources and Markets that brought them into our midst had grown exponentially with the expansion of their populations and needs – so why did they suddenly pull out and “grant independence” to the Africans? Eeish
a sign of desperate worrying times?
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/africa/-/1066/1066/-/8y7euiz/-/index.html
Southern Sudan is the real big prize. Among the “three ladies”, the concept introduced by D, to me it looks the sexiest. It may turn out to be not just an oil state, but a MEGAoil state.
Also, it seems one of the reasons Somalia is getting so much attention recently is because of the future pipeline from SS to Mombasa, which would pass very close to the Somali region.
Uganda has been pushing for an alternative, a pipeline passing through its Bunyoro oil fields first. They also dream of this SS oil feeding their own future refining industry.
However, the direct option looks more probable, at least if the “Somali syndrome” is contained.
Ironically, a stable Somalia may therefore not be in Uganda’s best interest. I wonder what will happen if they realize this (don’t think they have yet).
somalia is a mistress-and-wife situatuion for kenya. Peacefull, they are a threat militarilly in terms of the NFD. Warlike the are a threat economically in terms of lamu port project. What to do now?
YET SOMEONE THINKS we maybe cultivating the wrong seeds…
i wonder why this opinion has not been given prominence in NBI OR KAMPALA. ? YET another smokes screen? but somewhat very sensible and as though we did not know?
http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/editorial-analysis/19-editorial-comments/3659-nairobi-dar-sweeter-for-terrorists-than-mogadishu
somebody did something stupid in the Congo and once again Kenya is in the limelight. read http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/668146/-/unhtg0/-/index.html
Jasiri – this is an old story, buddy, months old, utterly false. It is tall-thin man and his handlers splashing their disinformation to kill this story. Won’t fly.
it’s funy by the way how this case has draged on in the congo courts. i thought this guys were supposed to have been toast already.
Guys, i guess the 27th is when the military will settle the rumours about the t-72’s. ni vile tu, but on that day i would have relished sitting besides some fools who were adamant we were arming the bearded african up north.
as i can see from these pictures ..there is not much new hardware apart from what we know
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/995068/-/wcijn1/-/index.htm
Looks like they are not displaying any T-72s, plus other related armor.
@olekoima
i think the press has overhiped this thing….the only “new” items here on display is the APCs…but the rest are traditional KA armour and assorted artillary guns and the heavy pieces on trucks are the same old repaintd tanks from the old stock?
plus offcourse thet smartly turned out personel….whom i think GSU look rather impresive…have not seen the APs though…
@ Olekoima, watch youtube- promulgation parade. . the T-72’s are very much on display, although static in a way. i seem to have a problem inserting complete links.
This one made me LAUGH:
http://256news.com/page.php?aid=1499&caid=18
Does anyone seriously think that spreading such stories will make Ugandans accept him as a successor? Ok, maybe there’s one woman who thinks so..
It is also interesting that the man started getting a lot of positive publicity exactly after the other short mutooro guy was posioned. Smells wicked palace intrigues to me.
@ BEEG EAGLE – the man has no real control over what UPDF is doing in Karamoja. He is a nominal commander. This is just in order to make things look like he has a “real” career in UPDF.
If you want to know where this Karamoja problem originates from, here’s a hint for you: Peter Otai’s UPA was the strongest of all insurgency groups which fought against M7 in the late 80’s. An enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Who you think has been supplying the Karimojongs with AKM’s?
There is no interest in ending this mess. This is all Machiavelli as ole Nkarei likes to say.
reminds you of one of those american action flicks hehehe brave, mean muhoozi.
Muhoozi “Rambo” Kainerugaba.
Tension is building up in the North. Looks like the region might have to brace itself for nasty moments a head.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36038
EVEN if this is true which i think could be not true..the only surprising thing is the allegation that uganda is involved in training these so called pilots ..am not sure they ugandans have the capacity to do this bearing in mind the status of their airforce training capacity which way below standards
The Kazan plant only produces the Mi-17 and the light, cheap Ansat chopper.
11 Mi-17’s – this means a sizeable airlift capability, at a cost of abt $100m.
I don’t think airlift is SPLA’s most pressing need.
Doesn’t make very much sense to me.
this ansat chooper loks impresive, someone knows it’s capabilities? esp the 2rc military recce version?
the north is getting a little to hot for everyone http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/report-sudan-plans-to-build-nuclear-reactor-1.309576 . It will be interesting to see what response this will generate.
Most likely propaganda in an attempt to i guess divert attention. No country straddlig the Nile should suffer electricity hitches.
Nuclear energy for sudan almost feels oxymoron–> ish…
@Jasiri,
Thanks i will have a look at youtube.
There is no detail on this u tube video but only an ill informed reporter with a narative that is wanting…..i guess sisi watu wa mbali tutangojea…until the day itself….sadly kenya has no live transmission to foreign audiences by BROADCAST TV.this is an area we are failling badly
countries like nigeria,ghana andNERLY all the north african countries can be found on live satelite TV here in UK
nigeria even has its orbiting satelite…
i wonder why with kenya having claim to a very relatively advanced telecoms structure in east africa is lacking by way of international broadcasting
@ SPIDERman – the very first photo on the Daily Nation web page quoted by yourself shows two T-72AV being transported by the Mack trailers.
These are the same tanks which were spotted in Kenya before:
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?121693-REQ-African-militaries/page29
– and have the reactive armor outlay which is typical for the T-72AV’s overhauled in the Ukraine (I compared with those supplied to Georgia, they look the same).
This reactive armor is the good old Konakt-1, 227 containers, v-shaped mountings on the turret – exactly as on the original T-72AV.
I hope the Ukrainians did not charge you guys any extra for an “upgrade”, and that expiry dates were checked on all Kontakt containers..
with the explosive charges working in perfect condition. i remember reading about some army that was screwed coz the detonators were faulty.
ok noted gracefully
BY THE WAY ON THE you tube promolgation video did i notice that the NAVY commander appears not steady on his feet as the national anthem is being played?
Its good to see the acmat and their towed arsenals are in good piece thanks to the brilliant idea of moving them from Nyali to Marikani. Anyway guys jionieni the tip of the iceberg.
I Have noticed when the blog discuses generalities and current affairs we don,t get any foreigners bumping in accidentally. What a coincidence. What happened to the master spy Tororo? I so a picture of you Tororo short dark guy. Contrary to what I had in mind. You have been missing in action man. Missing your dirty mouth good day.
just leave tororo in piece… but if you want any reply from him just try any subject touching on M7 AND he willcome out fighting
but by and large tororo, i belive made piece with most bloggers on this site in recent times…there i suggest you leave him to be
ya every market has its mad man we miss ours. ha haha ha
SO it seems we have now settled the ghosts of those who were hell bent alleging that the hard ware belonged to GOSS and not KA?
this is a much better presentation of the upcoming promulgation
please ignore the link above as it erroneously sends you to the entire nairobi cronicles web page
please use this instead
Pat,
This is not showing either.
IT is ok upande wangu…..so may be browser problems your side
KARIMOJONG RUSTLERS KILLING US – MUHOOZI
http://allafrica.com/stories/201008180220.html
Where are you based sir? Abuja, Lagos or East Africa? You have a lot of information on East Africa, just wondering aloud.
LAGOS.
and he is suppose to be a Niagerian.
as far as i know ..i may be wrong.BUT ..beegeagle is A very much a very well informed Nigerian WOMAN…SO THINK AGAIN before taking her on guys…
ALL Nigerian,sir.
Is East Africa not a part of Africa?It really should not surprise you that someone from the outside appears to know a little bit about that sub-region of Africa?
you know words like rungs and pangas am supprised you speak swahili
you are familiar (BEE ….) with words like rungus and pangas. am supprised you know so swahili
THIS IS old news .MORE THAN 2WEEKS old and came up when a member of parliament for this area acused the UPDF forces for killing innocent civilians
THE resultant fiasco has caused the M7 government some embarassment making all manner of counter accusations from muhuzis mother and then others..
http://www.monitor.co.ug/Magazines/-/689844/994090/-/nriktm/-/index.html
AND SEE MY reply to beeg eagle
on 20TH AUGUST 2010 AT 01.07 AM
Some newspaper editors deserve the sack the standard yesterday said that a transport aircraft designation E – 171 will also be on display. The E-171 is the C/N of the dassault alpha jet not a transport aircraft they need to check their facts for accuracy. This just goes to show unless you attend a promulgation rehearsal event of the main thing you cant get a full picture of what will be on offer….and yes the T-72s will be on show that day along with the Mk3s. Some commanders were angling to have the PIONS on show too but those monsters are bulky and no official word has been given on their display. The space reserved for the military is already full to capacity so chances of them coming out may be slim. The Noras stand a better chance though but its still not official. There was talk of handing the rangers battalion their official colors on that day too but the programme is already crammed up maybe on the next public holiday.
I would have loved to see the Pions and Noras on display.
They will really boost the country’s perceived muscle in the region and scare a few ‘brave’ cowards too. Or may be this might spark a fresh arms race? I don’t trust Sudan and Ethiopia.
THIS IS INTERESTING …there was a 5milliion dollar reward for the any information on this terrorist arrested in NAIROBI as per this news
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Wanted%20terror%20suspect%20%20arrested%20in%20city%20swoop%20/-/1056/995516/-/kery1z/-/index.html
I HOPE someone gets paid this money for a job well done…
risasi leo umeshinda na itchy knuckles, i see you really want to square it out with Tororo, hehehehe. Olekoima i share your interest, i would have personally liked to see the PIONS on display. tungoje 12th dec rangers wapewe regimental colours.
ha haha ha jionee
somalia just turned bloody. Something has to be done about this madmen. enough of the subtle Delta-ranger approach. someone needs to send in real muscle. http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/security_briefings/240810
So risasi what are you interested in knowing? By the way a dirty mouth or blunt truth?Besides I don’t blather so as to stay relevant and neither am I interested in conspiracy theories – just the truth Don’t start anything you won’t be able to finish. Lol your call
Hey bwana, so you are just following discussions quietly? Come back on board, let’s hear your contributions. A lot has been written on UG lately, what are your thoughts?
Olekoima – yea I have seen so much written and some of which is so outrageous I can’t really bring myself to explain to an individual with such a mind what is really going on ( am actually following your advise that not everyone who posts on the blog is knowledgeable about the topic they are discussing) sometimes you have also discussed about my employer and since McChrystal incidence I don’t to say something that may be picked up in the wrong especially if I was to respond while at work. (The unemployed line is too long for me to join)
how are you doing brother Torooo…? it been quit a while now. i was told if i mention M& you would pop up like a jini whos bottle has been rubbed. hope all is well this summer. apart insults and name calling do you have any thing substance to say?
Tell us something on the Spy firm you work for hows you day in the office LoL
@ BEEG EAGLE,
Thanks, nothing wrong in knowing about East Africa of course.We are all in Africa and are all brothers and sisters. Always welcome to make contributions which we always value as well. Could also cheap in with some west African stuff. We love to learn.
or better still, “look” at our neighbours from that end and let us know what you see…
Spiderman, gotcha right there. So my avatar on Cybereagles which bears the depiction of the steamy-eyed and plucky-lipped Romi Anauel(the Portuguese-Angolan diva) misled you into thinking that BEEG EAGLEis a woman,eh?
Well, BEEG EAGLE is sooo male that it crazy.
@Olekoima. Cybergeneral, we are on board and will remain so. All of Africa is my home…love no limit
@BEEGEAGLE
you bet you had me slam danged that you are a ……i must admit my guard was down here …OK THANKS for clearing the air…so lets roll on…..
Did you know guys that DRC is now also a proud operator of the T-72AV?
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?121693-REQ-African-militaries/page36
20 were ordered from the Ukraine last year.
DRC’s enemies shouldn’t get worried yet, though. These will remain with Garde Presidentielle – not likely to be seen outside Kinshasa. 🙂
i don,t see any T-72 from DRC in that blog
there’s another preety detailed blog which shows the bolingo na ngai t-tz’s. they even have some pics of Ali Faden, hehehe
Risasi, i saw a mil will air force patterns, do we fly Mils siku hizi?
THESE T72sare now becoming evryeones cup of tea…
My mind tells me that the the DR Congo will not be too long now in regaining its footing. Note that they have asked that MONUC leave next year….maybe they feel able to cope. In the years to come, the DRC with its monumental reservs of natural wealth will find its footing and TOUGH MILITARY QUESTIONS could be asked of Rwanda and Uganda.
In 2004, I even wrote a poem to that effect and described the DRC as a lion ambushed by jackals. The lion shall yet arise. I hope the Rwandese and Ugandans are thinking about that day which is SURE to come
They definitely are. And they are playing their game with Kabila who backs off anytime his hold onto power may be at risk.
For DRC to succeed as a state, the existing patrimonial state pattern has to be dismantled altogether. This will need an assertive and ideologically charged authority, and a violent cultural shock. DRC needs not a Kabila, not a Mandela but a Mao Zedong.
Till then, I remain cautiously pessimistic towards this country.
@BEEGEAGLE
when DRC is looked at in this prism you have indicated ..where does KENYA fit in this equation ?can you please come up with what you think are the likely scenarios?
Tororo,
Please expand your list of “conspiracy theorists” to include Andrew Mwenda:
http://independent.co.ug/index.php/cover-story/cover-story/82-cover-story/3369-bomber-confessions
Definitely mwenda is “all over” the place with his discussions. You can’t really trust him any more though he had gotten close enough to get information from the horse’s mouth but I think he is either deliberately misinformed or his sources are now distancing away from him especially as concerns UG since he has turned into RW’s foreign PRO
Deliberately misinformed abt what exactly? There’s a part of this article which I don’t like, but would wish to hear from you first..
“You can’t really trust him any more”? You mean there was a time when you had full trust in him? How imprudent, Mr. 007! Or do you only trust UG-produced leaks? 😉
ANOTHER CONSPIRANCY THEORIST
http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/news/2-international-news/3341-how-bomb-suspects-were-arrested-after-explosions
Toroooo my brother like how kenya kids state it tumeku misss Toroo!!!
ZSL-90/Type 92 on offical “Nyayo Camo”
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/995068/-/wcijn1/-/index.htm
Spider you wish ungekuwa nyumbani sio? You should have taken your vacation at this time . by the way the Z-9 might try to do a back flip during the parade. I so some china pilots demonstrating it, it was superb.
i miss all the live action now but you can be tripple sure that this son of man will not miss the upcoming trooping of the color by the rangers…
mimi nakam home hivi karibuni..for now will stick to you tube …for this thing.
BEEG EAGLE why are you miss leading the below blogs on the Kenyan T-72?
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?121693-REQ-African-militaries/page36
@Mugwiira, on August 25, 2010 at 11:52 am
Mzaire is just a Mzaire tuu. Hata ukimpa a Nuclear Sub he will still be the same. Zaire was one of the first countries to have MiG23s, C-130, Mi24 Mi-26 Halo (largest Helicopter in the world) among many. Now they have T-72. lakini hivyo when a small neighbor decides to cross over he can,t put a strong counter attack.
Agree. If DRC is to become strong, the very way they think and interact among themselves has to change.
I know this is what fuels the rumor. habari ndiyo hiyo.
http://www.langley.af.mil/photos/mediagallery.asp?page=19
@ Risasi,
What rumour are you referring to? The F-15 deal or what? I’ am kind of lost.
ya F one five
@mugwiira
@tororo
AM INTERESTED in this story herewith,
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/996280/-/x4iwbs/-/index.html
does any one know the workings of this outfit and why all the top operatives are ranked as LTs?(leutenants)
ISO is Uganda’s civilian security and CI agency, established by a 1987 Act which is very vague with few details.
In practice, it is the tool of the UG Government for spying on its own bureacracy, on politicians and other prominent citizens, and for gauging the popular mood. The list of their Directorates is interesting in this respect, as it includes such units as D’te of Political Intel, D’te of Electoral Affairs and D’te of Socio-Economic Affairs – while the unit dedicated to CI is just a Department within the D’te of Security.
Concerning the ranks. The distribution of senior positions appears to be as follows:
DISO’s – most no rank, some Lt’s
D’te of Analysis – half Lt’s, half no rank
Other D’tes – most Lt’s, a handful of Capt’s
Had the same question as you, but didn’t really inquire. It seems however these are military ranks which are handed out in appreciation because ISO is a civ agency with only assignments and no “ranks” as such.
Speculation is rife that the Son of Kogelo is attending tomorrow. Too risky to be true, methinks.
wacha hiyo maneno sasa…tafadhali….
@ Risasi, does the K.A.F operate mi-17’s? nimeona some with air force desert camo on formation over Uhuru Park. someone seems to think so too. i see the K.A.F page on wiki has been updated but lists them as mi-171’s
3 x new Mi-171’s, ordered in 2009 at abt $30m, were supposed to be delivered as early as mid-2009 but delayed due to problems with the upgraded avionics.
In March 2010, the Russian Ulan-Ude plant where these Mil’s were being produced was visited by a large crowd of Kenyan officers.
thank you Mugwiira, newfound respect for your sniffing capabilities. can you provide a link?
Like mugwira sayed , they are mostly civilians but to attain the Lt. rank means they had to be certified i.e did some outside training US, Israel, Russia, UK etc (especially the head of the organization ) and also some UG training which includes chakamuchaka and that’s how they attain the Lt rank
Sorry formisplaceing this answer – that is for Spiderman’s Qn. rushing to get some where
@MUGWIIRA
@TORORO
THANKS GUYS…your answers are ok and if need be will get back to you guys later
@ Jasiri pole nashikika kidogo some items on lease/trials for G.K…. tukutane kiwanjani
Things are really heating up in Mogadisho. The Shabaab have apparently taken control over one important junction (Siyadka, near the Parliament), and another one (Dabka) is threatened.
This means the main route from the airport and the AMISOM base to Villa Somalia has been cut off.
Adding insult to injury, they made advances in Iamar Weyne (south of VS, near the coast line), and almost cut off the UG troops in Uruba Hotel (on the beach). More UG troops under siege in the Juba Hotel up north.
The worst thing is that both TFG and the Burundians are hardly doing any of the fighting. So it’s now up to UG to mount a strong counter-offensive on their own.
The Shabaab, however, appear wary of this. They are gambling heavily, sending in reinforcements from across the country and leaving their rear unprotected.
I wonder whether the second Ethiopian intervention may be in the cards.
When will the Ugandans consider using air strikes of any sort – fixed or rotary wing? That ought to be the strategic edge which they enjoy over the mad hatters of Al Shabaab
They have considered it, and asked the US for money for Mi-24’s. The US refused. Without reinforcements, the only thing UPDF can really offer is 1 x Mi-24 and 1 x Mi-17 converted to an improvised gunship.
Haba…it cannot be that bad? During the SLR Civil War, that country’s government was able to acquire a pair of Mi-24Vs in very good condition for US$1.2m apiece. As we speak, even a used Hind-D which carries four 12.7mm MGs can be acquired in spanking condition(as against the Mi-24V which carries two 23mm cannons) can be acquired(factory refurbished for US$2.5m! Why are they waiting for American help to achieve that?
Diplomacy aside, that the criminal Bashir should deface an event of such significance to our history and future is totally disgraceful!!! The new Katiba, born of the blood and suffering of our people, embodies and represents the very principles that this thug has been trampling on for so many years, with impunity. No wonder the foul weather.
i BEG to differ…BASHIR has not been tried In any court of law.he is suspected but not yet proven guilty.
I MEAN WHO is this criminal courts who are just targetting AFRICAN BECAUSE THEY ARE EASY PICKINGS
THEY should
1)indict george bush
2)tony blair
3)the leaders of myanmar
etc
who have caused more misery in this world in the last 15 years combined.
vITRUVIAN, the ICC is a public relations tool for the westernens. thats how they’ve managed to pull focus from Bush and Blair to Bashir. Im not being political but if they were serious wangeanza na some guys in our midst! but because their handlers realised they might leave a power vacuum which in the long run might be counter-beneficial they decided to let things be :-#. hii ni porojo tu.
i was surprised to see Bashir arrive his attendance was put on a need to know basis and the attendance cards read Salva Kiir….All in all it was a nice ceremony. Had to shorten it a bit for obvious reasons. M7 sure had a weird look on his face during the march past. I know most of my boys were staring dead bang at him. It was almost funny.
that comoran guy was almost joining the parade! i bet he wishes it wre his army :-). Priceless look on the man from Kampala, i would love to know what was running through his mind na kama sii the mp’s ambushing the program he would have hid behind his seat!
SPIDERman, I agree that the ICC is selective, serving the Western powers pulling their strings. I agree that, were the ICC fair and impartial, they would necessarily have to indict Bush, Blair, the Rangoon junta and the list goes on. But the fact that he has been indicted by the ICC does not absolve him of his guilt, nor does the fact that he has not been tried and found guilty. Adolf Hitler and Idi Amin were never tried. No court has found them guilty, but history has. The same with Bashir. He is guilty, due process or not. He is and has been committing the same atrocities against the Darfurians, Nubians, S. Sudanese as the British did against the Mau Mau or the Americans against the Vietnamese, Iraqis and, well, everyone actually. So, if we point fingers at them, we must also point fingers at him.
Criminal prosecution and political persecution are two different things. Let us distinguish between them. But a criminal is a criminal, even if a Western stooge agrees. My objection is to fact that the promulgation of this Document, whose delivery cost thousands of Kenyan lives and which stands for everything Bashir does not, was attended by a man who has taken 100s of thousands of lives and who stands for everything the Document does not.
Blair, Bashir, Bush … seems to be a “B” thing going on here 🙂
Eh, Beeg Eagle?
@vitruvian
what evidence do you have that says BaSHIR IS GUILTY OF THESE CRIMES?
THE WESTERN MEDIA is the one beating the drum beats for this mans head
dafur has oil…that is what they are after..
WHY are they not indicting kagame when his boys are marauding in congo?
Everyone is guilty in Darfur both sides committed heinous crimes against humanity. The fact is the ICC is an organ of the UN which just like its predecessor the league of nations is a weak puppet of the powers that be. Am i the only one who finds it weird that of of the total UN membership 5 nations hold veto powers and can overturn anything decided by the other nations. The bulk of these ‘veto power’ countries consider themselves ‘bastions of democracy’ and use massive resources to ‘spread democracy’ to other nations. Proof of Bashirs guilt is not hard to come by whether authentic or not and therein lies the difference between him and the other Hitler incarnates. No one has the guts and/or power to openly accuse Bush and his cronies and to push for a success indictment against him…did you know that the united states isnt even a signatory to the ICC?
Not to piggyback on your reply, but you’ve taken the words out of my mouth.
IF the USA was a signatory to the ICC you can bet your life that by now BASHIR could be behind bars ….at the hague
AND besides the current wars UNCLE sam is involved in the aftermath it seems very unlikely that they will ever sign the ROME statutes
I HAVE always wondered who advised kenyans to sign this thing at the time they had no true democracy in thier systems of running things
@ SPIDERman
You mentioned Kagame, and I thought you may find this link useful:
http://congosiasa.blogspot.com/2010/08/un-mapping-report-leaked-crime-of.html
Note that Jason Stearns was never known as an RPF critic.
YES mugwiira
i had seen this report in its raw form even before it leaked..am reserving any comments for now…thanks for your link
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-27/rwandan-government-slams-united-nations-report-alleging-genocide-in-congo.html
Just returned, and Jasiri, I’ve just seen recorded shots with you in them looking good today! Hot-damn, that was a good show. So now Pat and Mugwiira notice the activity listing picking up in the Somalia Sector. Try and re-read my posts on this Somalia maelstrom of some months ago and this hazy picture might assume some clarity. Recall my “hypothesis” how the Said Barre Somalia Expansionism was countered and effectively neutered by Kenya? And what our economic stakes in Somalia, indeed what honey attracts all the dirty bees to Somalia? And my “hypothesis” on the only card UG has in hand, ignoring the bravado that is coming out of her Politico Class, that we would stop further UG adventurism in Somalia by force of Arms if needed. Somalia is a pretty much controlled situation, has been for a long time despite the chaos that attracts first attention, as far as our strategic thinking is concerned. I restate once again that we do not need a swaggering cowboy with his six-shooters hanging out of cut-out holsters strutting around shooting at every shadow lurking in every bush. With this recent heightened activity, notice how absent the UPDF in response! That UG cannot respond in greater volume is solely because they lack the capacity to do anything else but “police” a few acres of what they can sight from their dug-out positions in Mogadishu!! Period!! Eventually we shall all settled down to the usual controlled Chaos, until the integration of the Diaspora Somalia is complete – new thinking will then develop about this state called Somalia – I reckon pretty soon.
Ethiopians may indeed be coming:
http://www.wardheernews.com/News_10/August/27_Ethiopian_Troops_Enter_Somalia.html
the ethiopians are denying that they plan to intervene
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-27/ethiopian-government-denies-plans-to-intervene-in-somalia-at-this-point-.html
M7 had said he can send in 20,000 ..but at this rate of training only 1700 men …i can this mission failing spectacularly
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/997768/-/x4jpip/-/index.html
I must admit: you regular bloggers – Ole Nkarei, Spiderman, “D”, Jasiri, Mugwiira, Risasi, Olekoima (in no particular order) – you are a very competent lot. Kudos to you all!
HEY vitruvian
your contributions are also top notch…us for me the hunger for information is what motivates me to be in the field and past experiences and activities makes it very worthwhile for me to continue this way…AND of course my love and commitment to my country of origin for now is beyond reproach
your compliments are wellcome.
oopsI MISS someone CALLED seedlong…WHO HAD very insightfull technicall inputs on the F5s
Vitruvian welcome. In my opinion you come with a good foot and respected the blog. You said you didn,t know much about the military and this was a window to learn more. Feel free to shot any question. Lets agree and disagree.
AM LOOSING patience with this son
of man from Kogelo.
HE is held hostage by right wing media and at this rate he may be a one term president.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gBZwsGDmXZU-zu4szjFinzqkKVWg
On issue of Bashir all said and done bwana nii head of state gani that will allow his country to be partition without Retaliating? Bashir kweli ana dhabi zake he might have used excessive force against regions of his country . but which president will allow a break away republic in his country? Biafra tried and it was met with resistance, Kosovo, Chechnya same case na hata hapa hapa nyumbai during Mzee Kenyatta time when North Eastern tried to join the greater somali what happpened? if you guys Knew what kikosi cha tano and saba did to those somalis at that time hii mambo ya Darfur is peanuts. Its just that the Media coverage was low during this ages. Bashir bwana was our guest WE invited him. Sisi bwana tuna sherehe njoo ujumwike na sisi. He accepts. How then do we arrest him?
Kongamano la jana had several agenda. Politicians had their own and the military had its own too. It was a good time all neighbors had been rounded up, lets show them that tuko na vitu vipya na vya zamani pia viko sawa sawa. Silaha za miaka ya sabini bado vipo katika hali maridadi. Bashir too had to witness that. a lot of pictures were taken by foreign agents.
Obama now is complained that we didn,t arrest General Bashir. Now I think you guys will get the Picture why I don,t want the F-onefive. Its Because if a politician says something wrong against our “Master” basi the aircraft will be grounded. spare for you arsenal will not be arriving and the boys will not be flying for sometimes. Fc-1 and Fc-20 will be a better choice. Let us stick with the Chinese we will bake our cake and eat it.
To all respected blogers…
i know some of you may not believe….but i cried real tears of joy and happinness when i saw this video presentation with the song “my land is kenya”
the smile and joy the president displayed was the greatest moment of my life…
NOW ..i know it may sound crazy.. but it is my strong conviction that THE son of man from kogelo is lost… HE NEEDS TO BE ADVISED THAT in the true African tradition one does not disrespect his roots and expect blessings from his makers. REMEMBER THAT Kenyans prayed day and night for this man to succeed and it is time he showed respect for Kenyans. …lazima akuje kenya wazee wamteme mate…
It is by virtue of the mystic of Kenyan roots that this man was able to capture and inspire the AMERICAN imagination such that no other black man could do likewise hence his meteoroic raise to the most powerfull office on planet earth
…IT is MY strong conviction that unless he comes home to be blessed and pay homage to his Ancestors,.. his luck will run out and i can see him being damaged such that he may not win his second term….
I KNOW some may call me supersticious but..who would have known that at this point and time A MAN OF LUO ANCESTORY FROM KENYA WILL BE IN THE WHITE
HOUSE FIVE YEARS AGO?
the republicans are mounting a very serious challenge to this mans leadership and we shall see during mid term electionds how things stand..
THE RIGHT WING PRESS EMPIRE run by RUPERT MURDOCH has acquired all the tools to run this man out of the white house..like they did to the labour government here in the uk…
They own even the Dow Jones index, they are hammering him daily through fox news ..likes of glen beck ,rush limbau,sarah pallin,hackerby,giulliani,etc are everyday on his case..
nothing he does seems to go unchalleged
so he should just thank god he is where he is AND not be fooled that his position is safe…
MAMBO YA bashir awachane nayo…KABISA ..because the press in the USA WILL use this against him..and yet USA itself has not rattfied the Rome statutes that set up the ICC.
BASHIR knows that south Sudan may soon be out of his grasp and so he needs KENYA to help if things dont go the way they are expected and there is war..and also THERE IS THE BIG PUZZLE OF the ILLEMI TRIANGLE…?amen.
Ditto SPIDERman chances that Bashir wil be arrested and taken to the hague in Africa are slim to none the man is clearly a life president in N. Sudan and he doesn’t need to step out of Africa for anything. To the common man Bashir’s attendance might look anti populace but the way i see it it was for the best. The man is a sitting president for God’s sake. With the south going into a referendum and him facing a more than likely break away by the said south the man is keen to portray an image of unity with the rest of africa. i also found it ironic that the T-72s which propaganda spreaders touted to be heading to south Sudan were paraded in full 82nd bttln colors in front of Bashir. Maybe Kenyas way of saying ‘look pal our hands are clean on this South Sudan matter’ Logically a strong S. Sudan is NOT to kenyas advantage. Trust me we would rather have them independent and somewhat weak than armed with top notch armour. There are too many issues at stake and we need them to need us.
hi guys,i have been away from this blog for quite long.
i attended the millitary parade on the 27th but it never lived to ma expetation.
With M7 a round and Albashir, we would send some signal that ‘tuko imara’ but this never happened.
There was nothing new in our inventory,all the paraphanelia displayed are wat we know unless to a common mn who does not understand military matters.
I believe m7 was very keen on our arsenals,neither the WZ-9 were on display not the f-5s,with the jets i understand the weather was not favarauble.
I was happy too to take some photos on T72AVS.
@chinook
karibu tena
are you able to upload any of those pictures for us to see ?
So they said the T-72AV were purchased by GoK for the GoSS, despite that GoK and her civilian population had invested so much over nearly a decade to get the Sudan onto the Peace Table. That Kir was being prepped by GoK to secede, with Hardware coming through Mombasa, formal Military training in Kenya’s Combat and Officer Schools, and that huge retirees from GoK Armed Forces were being transferred on Lucrative deals to the GoSS to continue in the NCO and Officer Corps. NSIS chaps get busy, as usual, and it is trumpeted that Kir would attend the Promulgation on 27th August. The usual disinformation buzz starts building up ( “D” probably picked this up) that Kir would be coming with a few token T-72 to fool everyone since we” had none in our stores anyway” . The first of these appear, on low-beds during rehearsals and the insidious chaps scream it is cardboard silhouettes painted in the 82nd colours!! Despite the clear evidence of the sagging tyres of the Low-beds from the weight. Bloggers demand live-feed photos, even on this blog some of you are asking for photos, reference being made to the You-tube, etc. The Shadow chaps in NSIS realize that aint no way this rubbish would ever end if these Ordnance is displayed with Kir in attendance. Some cool fella proposes having Bashir turn up unexpected, to seat in front row as the T-72 rumble across Uhuru Park on their own steam. Imagine the consternation on the faces of the Brits shadow eyes at this picture? Bashir seating calmly watching as deadly weaponry supposedly imported for possible deadly war inside his country, not a eyebrow raised!! That friends is the sting that resulted in Bashir’s attendance. Risasi and “D” hit it dead point that the Invitation to such events is Government-to-Government, and the attendees are in all abilities representation of those governments. The Rome Statute notwithstanding, other conventions are in force here, and none of them subservient to the Rome Statue which this greenhorn in the White House blithely ignores was declared inconsequential and contra to American Interests and their Constitution!
It is easy to ignore history that condemns the same sanctimonious noises for starting and sustaining the carnage in the Sudan for nearly two decades. What some of you may not be aware of that the CPA was a circuitous and very convoluted process that required Sombeiyo his incredible Military Skills to run to completion because of the many obstacles that needed to be supplanted, all placed by these same outside interests groups to whom Peace in the Sudan was not an desired immediate outcome. We kicked them in the teeth, fellas, and they will not once forget it. Our interests, divergent from theirs, demanded that this important North-Sector be brought to some semblance of Local Government Control, to allow us to start on the urgent business of integrating the North of Kenya into our Economic and Politics. It didn’t matter to us if it was Galang or Bashir that would do this, but in this event, Bashir lost full grips of the South and appeared unable to regain it, so we dealt with Galang. Quid pro quo follows.
On all matters, gentlemen, I should want to request that all Patriotic Kenyans think first of Kenya’s Strategic and Real Interests, immediate and long-term. I don’t give a hoot about some convention that only selectively applies when it suits some people. Milosevic was sold out and they probably knew he was on a short life-leash anyway. Karadzic is still walking around freely in Europe! Mladic is yet to b found – in Europe, for crying out loud!! George Bush has been mothballed and not one voice raised about the hundreds of innocent he slaughter in Iraq very, very recently!! List is endless, and you all know it. Doesn’t mean that Genocidiers in Africa should go free, hell no, but that the same morality applies generally and across the board. Even in Africa, they have qualified Genocide according to whether their immediate interests are served – as with the Tall Thin man and the 6Million Dead in Central Africa. Probably it is from training and background, but I cannot see why some people would think our National Interest dovetail into those of some long-noses seating in some air-conditioned Office in some Western Capitals pontificating about their morality and right to constantly remind the rest of our of our inherent unworthiness. How, does anyone instant imagine that the Slaughter in the Darfur never served these peoples interests, if one was to put into this picture the greater central Africa region of Chad, CAR, Equatorial Guinea, Sudan? Where and what was Uncle Sam doing around this larger Region during the Darfur Slaughter and what are His Strategic Interests in it? Doggone it guys, what is their specific interests in these matters? So that Kenya arrests Bashir, forget the illegalities of this action anyway, and hands him over to the long-noses in Geneva – then what? To Kenya, that is? How does the Sudan respond? How many Kenyans of everyday life are in the Sudan this very day? How does this action impact on the immediate and long-term strategic growth consideration of Kenya? Eeissh!!
Cousin Barry says hes ‘disappointed’ in diplomacy words acquire deeper meanings. If it was such a big deal to him i would expect stronger wording like ‘outraged’. Remember the american president in himself is not necessarily the most powerful person in that nation. There are myriads of committees not counter checking or balancing his power but actually controlling the man in office. Bush is too daft to think up the 9/11, Iran Afghanistan fiasco all by his texan self. And judging by the way he bungled himself into office he didnt command enough political muscle to push military action down americans throats. I guess what am saying Barry was given a statement and he had little choice but to memorize the skeleton of it and say it publicly.
Risasi, are you driving fast fixed or or rotary and 15Meters per second (I recall you mentioned)? Coz I tell you buddy, like as not you if you are in fast fixed, you will soon be strapped into an ef-fifteenEee. When I first raised this snippet months ago, there was immediate skepticism that this is likely. Now, consider of a possible CAP for the ef0fifteenEE even without air-refueling; and imagine the DRC and Ethiopia into the EAC with a possible consumer Market of nearly 300Million gullible Africans – their applications is on the table, infact the reason for the recent elections in Ethiopia. Now factor in the stupendous Minerals and raw material in this expansive single trading Block, Egypt at the very mercy of this Block (water) and a imploding South Africa. The Gate way to this Block is Nairobi, for all the reasons I will not mention. Uncle Sam must be allowed in, no matter the precedent set!! Do you see what the Strategic America Interest are in this scenario? Sorry to over-load this blogs, guys, been away too damn long, I reckon.
Not overloading, Tom, and don’t you dare stop.
asante sana colonel
@vitruvian
SO all must now be aware that Kenyas strategic interests will not and cannot be served if we dance to the whims off ICC .
the truth is THE ICC is a tuthless bulldog
WE STAND to loose much if we had arrested Bashir
http://www.africareview.com/News/-/825442/998692/-/ufk2ncz/-/index.html
It is enlightenment of this sort that brings me to this blog Spiderman.
m7 MUST now be fuming after his government attempted to say that they will arrest Bashir ..LASTmonth if he sets foot in kampala..
NOW M7 knows which side kenya is supporting and if push comes to shove kenya IS aligned with sudan for strategic reasons…
THERE ARE very hard options for m7…. and with his troops increasingly getting bogged down in SOMALIA…dont be surprised if KENYA is called upon save them from emminent danger of defeat by alshabab
WE are ready…we are ready …
http://www.nation.co.ke/image/view/-/998464/highRes/189279/-/maxw/600/-/10x2y5kz/-/PIX2.jpg check that out, noticehow the guys with attache cases have tactically flanked bashir 😉 cheeky arabs taking no chances with their warlord.
hehehe there’s a weird drought from the kenyan media of pics from uhuru park on the internet.
The only PICTURES i can find are these ones for the parade rehersals ON 22ND AUGUST ….
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/995068/-/wcijn1/-/index.html
i think those are a bit easy to come by. however notice how in the same pics there’s nothing eyecatching or rare despite the fact that indeed some previously unseeb instruments were paraded in the rehersal. tell’s you a lot about the Kenyan military.
I must say i find this particular discussion very enlightening. ive always been hooked to matters military strategy and it is just refreshing to finally have a feel of what we have. kudos to you all.
now to a few things i have to contribute…
1: UAV’s. maybe the pundits might want to shed a little light on whether these vehicles, especially armed ones like the predator offer a significant advantage enough to warrant their consideration as opposed to the F15 / 16s. (not sure about price comparison).
2: Numbers vs budget. i find numbers tounted by some analysts as the main frame of reference when determining strength of a military , how important is the ratio to number of troops.
3: Cost of war: with the kind of budgets indicated earlier, isnt the cost of war soo high that Peace building in somalia is a better (and probably cheaper) strategy?
4: R&D. Anything on the military front? ama all we have is nyayo pioneer?
looking forward to hearing from you guys…..
This writer has said something that i was almost trading blows with some narrow minded self pitying ungratefull people recently when i told them KENYA IS THE engine of eastern and central africa…
http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/%20Now%20the%20sky%20is%20the%20limit/-/440808/998840/-/item/1/-/j3cr2iz/-/index.html
@AREBA
karibu sana
I HAVE NOTED YOUR REMARKS AND will revert back on the pros and cons
of UAVS versus jet fighters
HOWEVER ON THE OUTSET the infrastructure needed to succesfully operate fully armed and properly intergrated UAVs in much more extensive than most people think
firstly
1)you need a very elaborate global position system
2)you need a fully intergrated ground control radar system
SO BEARING IN MIND KENYA does not own any ORBITING military satelites or even commercial ones ..we will have to rely on third parties to fully intergrate and operate any UAV system into our military communications net work .THIS DOES NOT MAKE GOOD MILITARY SENSE i should say…
please note my answer is not conclusive ..but am doing more research on this and will hopefully get back with more precise information OR PERHAPS MORE ENLIGHTENED BROTHERS ON THIS BLOGG MAY TAKE THE CUE AND ELABORATE….
Is it true M7 was booed by the public on 27th?
AM TOLD A large part of THE CROWED booed and chanted migingo! migingo! as the Master of ceremony was introducing the seated dignitaries prompting the MC to plead with the crowd to show respect.AS HE WAS mentioning M7s names….
:-p what do you expect when a large portion of the crowd were the same “mad wajaruos” from kibera?
This Migingo saga was SO inconsiderate.
The M7 has gained nothing but instead:
1) Boosted patriotic feelings among Kenyans.
2) Played into the hands of those Kenyan politicians who are most hostile to him.
3) Pissed off the son of man from Kogelo. The latter would never show it of course, but it’s well known that he always watches very attentively whatever happens in EA.
This lone cowboy attitude is going to bring Uganda into trouble. You cannot keep quarrelling with all your neighbours, especially when you are a small landlocked country.
Thanks @spiderman.
Speaking purely from a layman’s perspective, i find it extremely appealing to invest in a UAV project for a variety of reasons. I do appreciate the considerations you have cited (Satnav and all), however, from a technical perspective it does make sense that local installation of land based navigation aid would place a UAV project in the realm of possibility as a defence tool. (im considering something in the realms of radar. Theoretically speaking again, and esp if mass produced cheap enough, they can be deployed in huge numbers and operate as a mesh. which would mean that range can be extended.
Ive always thought it makes real sense to have a drone with a machine gun and sufficient power deployed in large enough numbers to police a city or at least go ahead of an infantry. Most of them nowadays are equipped with a return to base configuration whenever they lose communication anyway.
my 2 cents.
please find information on the dreaded predator drones that USA is using so effectively in the middle east
http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/predator/
and read more on my answer below to jasiri
@areba
Further to my recent submissons on the UAVs…it also impotant to note that UAvs are a good platform for launching precision munitions like missiles and other fire and forget weapons, BUT they are unsuitable for use as a platform for firing a weapons like the machine guns which perform better on much heavier platforms like HELICOPTER GUNSHIPS AND Hercules gunships ,and jetfighters. whereby accuracy when firing a machine gun is not a priority..since the amount of munitions discharged is quite heavy and staggering when they are activated…
HERE again i stand to be corrected.
Areba i do not consider my knowledge of matters air conclusive but certainly i’m knowledgable than most. what i can tell you is that for ome operations e.g COIN, surveillance and tracking, electronic avesdroping UAV’s are indeed suitable. but that’s as far as their suitability goes. in full blown hostilties maybe with our arab jirani, habesha’s or M7-people with airforces to speak of- our UAV fleet would be hidden in bunker’s like the iraqi birds in desert storm. UAV’s posses a limited air-air capability and s fancy as they look it’s actually unwise to operate them in such large numbers without a strong fighter jet fleet to protect them. take note that the air forces that posses them have very intimidating numbers of fighters in their command.
CONCLUSION: yes they are suitable but only in low intensity conflicts or in the case of hot wars, with sufficient air cover.
@ BEEG EAGLE
Things are really that bad.
There are two things to note about the SLR purchase.
One, it was easier in 1996-1997. Too many surplus Eastern Bloc weapons just begging for a buyer.
I can assure you if the purchase wasn’t managed by Sandline, SLR would end up with the same junk as UPDF did when they tried to procure Mi-24’s from Belarus in 1997.
This now-famous “junk helicopters” story is actually just the most well-publicised of all UG procurement failures.
Then, why would UG spend $2.5m (without spares & armaments) or more to fight a war which, despite all the chest beating, is of little importance to themselves? And, who will pay for the fuel etc.?
By the way, you should add abt $1m for a “factory refurbished” chopper, rather than one “refurbished” (hmm) at some “helicopter repair plant” in the Ukraine or Georgia.
Ironically, this now-defunct Sandline was owned by Tony Buckingham, they very same guy who runs Heritage Oil, the small British oil company which struck oil in UG and is now in a $400m tax row with GOU. The world is small!
Lemme introduce another dimension for discussion, just to illustrate how careful we must guard against the plethora of information churned out the Old West through their Media & Civil Societies extensions. GoK public Procurement in 2005 reaches nearly Ksh.550 Billion, up from the Ksh.100Billion that got Murunguru in trouble with Brits on the Land-cruiser deal. This includes what is both carried in Budgetary Estimates and also FDA from sources (including barter on-value programs with the New World). So, learning from the Murugaru Experience and not being entirely stupid, once the decision to face East for Military Ordnance of certain categories is reached, we mount a very covert and very sophisticated Ops to procure the Ordnance. Multi-Sectoral teams in GoK fan out across the globe seeking competitive tenders based on Price & Functionality. Analysts process these and and pass on to Civilian Oversight and – Voila the T-72AV! All under complete wraps, the first, second and third batches are landed at MSA, plus other Stores not related to these Monsters, teams are sent out on crash induction course – drivers, shooters, commanders and maintenance / refitters, and local orientation in our Units also begin in tandem. Try to imagine the scope of this Ops, guys, and let your chest swell out, if you are Kenyan! Anyway, some moles in the system, and there are hundreds planted precisely to keep an eye of GoK procurement, blow the lid off and angry questions are fired across the seas by some long-noses that assumed a birthright to GoK procurement, never mind that the products they sent was often uncompetitive both in Price and Functionality. It is too late to hide the movement, and the next lot is track to the point of embankment by the Long-noses, itemized and photographs from their eyes in the skies. Covert teams land in lawless Somalia and recruit a Platoon-size team and given it instructions on using shoulder carried Sat-Com devices and how to operate an inflatable dingy in High Seas. Meantime the ship Faina departs from port and is tracked all way the down the Suez, the Red Sea, and into the Indian Ocean, where one very dark night shadowy figures land on the ship after pin-pointed SatNav guiding on their HALO parachute flights from Airplane probably taking off Jomo Kenyatta ( not established yet). Complete control of the Ship in Minutes, the crew completely taken by surprise is herded into holding vaults under and locked up. Not a word is uttered, and all the crew said they saw, during our debriefing, were 7 aggressive, camouflaged dressed chaps with swathes of Head sheets masking their entire heads!! Standard SAS Op Stick! Anyway a short hour later they hear sounds of a Zodiac engine and suddenly the guttural shouts of men clambering aboard the Fiana. Daylight comes, and lo and behold, when some of the crew are brought topside to make the ransom call, now their Captors are not covered, and they express themselves freely and openly abeit now in Somalia!! No way those bandits would have taken the Faina without top-notch Intel that only available on Sat Overflies; precision-guiding the Zodiac to the Faina in Pitch darkness required sophisticated SatNav equipment not even dreamed off by the Somali Bandits . The circus that followed you all remember, driven by Civil Society busybodies in the employ of the Long Noses, and Western Media frequently the conduit of their Intelligence Agencies. But at the least, the conduit from the Ukraine was temporary shut down. We need to be careful with the details of running ops we exchange on this blog, and those photos of Military Equipment being innocently requested for kinda worry me, friends.
Much as i would want to trust suggestions BY the colonel on the faina saga…i find it hard to comprehend that somebody else fronted for the pirates to facilitate the capture in order to orchestrate the subsequent events.
EVEN THOUGH i have my misgivings and suspicions on the activities of the mombasa based maritime seaferers union whose well known spokesperson was on the front line pushing the theory that the captured tanks were headed to GOSS.
Come to think of it these guys have been always the first to get any ransom demand even before the owners of the ship and cargo are contacted…
my personal submission here is that the movement of this cargo was not given the level of security it deserved in the first place from the point of origin.
Now on the issue of UKRAINIAN origins..remember before the short war between RUSS IA and georgia recently..there was no active AMERICAN naval Presence in the black sea..whereby the russian black sea fleet was ruling the waves…from the ukranian port of sevestopol.
BUT after these skirmishes ,the AMERICANS HAVE muscled there way into these waters through a defence agreement between them and GEOGIA..now there are Ammerican and other NATO vesels patroling these waters ..so any movement of major arms is bound to be detected.
Lastly there is no point in displaying military hardware in public like the highly publicised function like the PROMULGATION of the consituition of Kenya and not expect people to seek photos,videos etc as a testimony to this momentus and joyfull occasion it rightfully was …I BELIEVE there is no reason to look so deep into these requests.
I’ve realised this site is not moderated anymore, while one’s comment must be moderated if you post more than 1 link.
I’m therefore re-posting below some of my posts which never made it to the public, and which I think aren’t outdated yet.
Sometimes it’s good not to observe computer hygiene and leave cookies undeleted..:)
August 13, 2010 at 12:40 am
Concerning Puntland.. This “Shabaab-allied islamists” story is BS, a spin by PIS (Puntland Intelligence Service).
In my understanding, this has more to do with Farole’s arrogance, and relationships within the Warsengeli sub-clan of Harti where one group is trying to get pre-eminence by showing their ability to stand up to the “central” Majerteen authority.
But with all this inter-clan stuff (which can make you crazy at times), we should not miss the big picture. Oil exploration.
Just look at this map and then remember where Northern Somalia’s major “hot spots”, Las Anod and Maakhir, are located:
Cherchez la oil.
My bet is that Southern Putland will be the place for the next insurrection.
on August 23, 2010 at 7:16 pm
@ Jasiri
There’s not much info on Ansat. For the civ variant see here:
http://kazanhelicopters.com/index.php?id=507
The recce variant seems to have the following specs:
Max take off weight – 3500kg
Powerplant – 2 x Pratt & Whitney PW207K 630hp each
VNE – 300km/h
Service ceiling – 5700m
Range – 540km
Armament: 1 x 12,7mm gun, up to 1,000kg on 4 hardpoints (ATGM, Igla-V AAM, 80mm rockets).
Looks impressive; no orders yet, though..
Ansat photos here:
http://www.photoka.info/ansat-2rc/index.htm
is it me or does the Ansat look disturbingly similar to the Dennel Roivalk?
No, the Rooivalk is much heavier and more complex. The Ansat is lighter than even the AH-1, despite having two engines.
on August 26, 2010 at 3:25 pm
@ Jasiri
The magic power of Google Translate!
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newbur.ru%2Fnews%2Fdocuments%2F200&sl=ru&tl=en&hl=&ie=UTF-8
You gotta love the comments on this page. lol
🙂 someone wondering if every Kenyan is bald! hehehe
A good move, guys we are finally free to roam about for arms without bothering to imagine what uncle Sam and other western fellows think.Great.
on August 29, 2010 at 11:16 am
@ Areba
Concerning the UAV’s question.
1) For ground support: effective use of UCAV’s (Combat UAV’s) will need a developed C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) network. It is thus feasible for nations such as the US which have already invested heaviliy in modern, integrated C4ISR, but not (yet) for smaller, less developed countries. The latter, however, can still use UCAV’s for specops.
2) To use UCAV’s for air superiority missions, major technological advances are still needed in a) weapons; b) software:
Click to access lewis.pdf
In any case, most future air forces will likely combine manned and unmanned platforms.
@ Tom i belong to the bracket of 15 kilometers per minute. i.e not meters per second.
@ D I have seen some rifle that have a folded butt and support stands like Lmg’s. I also saw them on clips of Match and shoot exercises look pretty nice and have a good recoil. Where are they from Belgian FN Herstal?
Faina and the west.
From my experience at times import of military ordinance does contain “extra parcels”. And this is what fueled rumors that Faina was an order of GoSS. Its an white lie (part throught) from both parties kenya and the west. The americans and Brits use to channel in weapons for their activities inland through Kenya military import. We learnt from them and we to did this for our
‘friends’. Examples include
1. escorts of consignments by the G.S.U. into the Great lake regions.
2. Zimbabwe Hawk spares.
pictures are all over the internet of Zimbabwe Hawk 60 in kenya air bases. Hawk spares have been passed on to Zimbabwe which is under an arms embargo by the Brits
I this respect the Faina cargo might have indeed contain cargo that was also destined for GoSS. My main suspicions are towards the ZPU-4. I doubt the T-72 was for GoSS . they don,t have the economy to run 110 T-72.
Its an open secret that GoK is re arming and modernizing its arsenal. The west lost a good deal when GoK bought large consignments from the East. We had to be punished for doing this and this gave birt to the Faina ordeal.
I feel this game is far from over. US is deliberately handing over F-15s in due time before China fighter deal matures.
The Brits on the other hand I believe have sent several FV4030/4 Challengers what I practically saw at Embakasi. For your information this tanks are manufactured by Vickers Defence Systems the same manufacture of the Mk3. in my analysis this is a well planed scheme to regain an interest in this region and tame us once again.
THERE ARE now confirmed reports that ETHIOPIAN TROOPS ARE HEADED FOR mogadishu as of sunday evening after crossing en masse into somalia
http://www.africareview.com/News/-/825442/999540/-/ufje94z/-/index.html
Here is perhaps a very clear picture of the Kenyan T-72s. Compare the same with that of the Vickers MK3 tanks below.
Still doubting BEEG EAGLE?
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?121693-REQ-African-militaries/page37
why is BEEG EAGLE misleading bloggers on that site that kenyan uniforms on this side do not acknowledge the existence of the T-72’s? care to explain my broda?
THESE are the same pictures on the original daily nation posted on 22 nd august…just scroll through the pictures for the preperations and they will load automatically as you go along
TODAY IN MOGADISHU:
MORTAR ATTACK KILLS FOUR UPDF PEACEKEEPERS
THE ugandans seem to be unable to raise funds for this mission…. they are banking on uncle sam…who IS NOT TOO happy
THE recent remarks by M7 to continue running for president after 24 years may cause him problems
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1000118/-/cocw9iz/-/index.html
I have no way to establish the authenticity of this document, but it looks like interesting reading:
file.wikileaks.org/file/union_of_islamic_courts.zip
The infiltration strategy in principle makes sense.
Note: “Islamic Republic of Somalia”, not “Emirate of Somalia” like most wahhabi-supported entities.
A UPDF officer being dragged through Mogadishu streets akin the yankees in 1992. That is a sad sight but also one M7 should take as an eye opener. To me this war is already lost to M7. Unless he turns the tide drastically and these ways are limited. I think he should consider a pull out. let him save face before things get worse.
Just had a quick ran to the North and South Kivu, guys, and the news there is not that great at all, which implies to me that all these recent happenings in East Africa around Terror and Reactionary Terror are but distractions intentionally being played by some clever G2 chaps while the real bomb is preparing to explode in the Great Lakes. Tensions so thick it burns into your skins as you pass. There is a civilian populations moving, coalescing together in ethnic and near-similar ethnic groupings, and the usual hardy AK47 being openly seeded into these populations. Reminds me of the devilish preps to the 1994 Rwanda Genocide, the same ominous calmness above surface. People, it looks certain like finally Uncle Sam and the Tall-Thin Man are about to launch what they are trying to sell as the necessary resettlement of Congolese Tutsi ostensibly evicted during the first and second great movements of Kivu post-Genocide, which is rubbish, but intended to finally annex the Kivus into a Tutsi-controlled Territorial-Rwanda by definitively altering the demographies of the Kivu with a preponderant infusion of Ethnic Tutsi from Rwanda and Burundi. Guys, if and when it blows, prepare to deploy, coz I am certain this time we shall not seat it out. Damn!!
at least. waiting for the fun
IF THIS happens and you guys deploy..which side or interests will you be serviing?
guys. moving out to an internet-less place. Keep the blog running. will post comments when possible. out.
somali crisis needs kenyan military input.it will soon get out of hands as it hapens to UPDF.
Ethopians are in and out of somali probably signaling their intension to invade .
why can’t we have the same tempo to help this guys out?
what is the logic of imagining of getting involved in events in the far away great lakes region while things in our next door backyard are getting worse and worse?
can we justify this ?
There does seem to be a strong military installation in Lamu that would be best suited to give both intel and support for any incursion @chinook,
Ill also say that sometime back, around the time that some kenyan policemen were attacked at the border there were fly bys that happened to pass over where i stay consistently for about two weeks, all very low, all F- something fighters (always passed when my camera was too far away) and me and a couple of friends were speculating that it was more likely uncle sam cause what we saw had the tell tale under belly of an F16.
collins areba
be aware that there is round the clock KENYA AIR FORCE operattions covering the entire east coast …so mostly likely you saw the belly of an updated KENYAN F5 TIGER…
@Jasiri, watch your six, mate, and get back safe. Hey my brother Pat. Stop analysing the geopolitical challenges facing us from a Criminal Intelligence perspective which essentially delves from a finite possibility for prevention / interdiction. Look at these through a Military Prism, an integrated / interlocked jigsaw puzzle that demand not only different MOs and approaches, but concurrent attention. Make the transition from your civilian spook orientation to a Military Spook mindset. The variation is as big as that between GD and GSU Cop as I certain you will recall from your service-days. As to whose interest we shall serve if and when we should deploy to the Kivu? Ours, Country-Kenya, and those of anyone else whose interests will find commonality with those of Country-Kenya. The ef-fifteen-ees that Risasi so dislikes might be the Carrot-end of Uncle’s Sam’s strategy vide the Tall-Thin Man’s moves to complete rewriting the demographies of the Kivus, I am beginning to consider.
a succesfull incurson those KIVU places will demand a massive airlift capability…and a sustained ground logistical nightmare simply due to
1 )we will be operating across enemy territory ie m7s and tall thin mans
2)TZ is most unlikely to support such a venture
3)we will need support from the other side ie angola and ZIM who have previously gone yo the aid of the son of kabila …otherwise
such an adventure from us will be toast
BUT the only consolation for us will be that I J NOW KENYA enjoys a lot of goodwill and support from the local populations in these areas because of recent and past activities of HUMANITARIAN NATURE
THIS is interesting now ….RWANDA is supporting baba jimmy on the bashir maneno.
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1001576/-/coc4n9z/-/index.html
I guess the tall-thin man fears that he’ll end up in the same league with Bashir if one day he ceases to be useful to the US, or is found too “contagious”.
Things indeed look disturbing in the Kivus, but one interesting implication is that the tall-thin man seems to be having less control over the situation than before. The local Tutsi/Hutu/Hunde/Nande gangs have by now learnt how to co-operate among themselves for their own benefit, play tall-thin man’s fears, and play his disagreements with M7.
We are not yet there, but may eventually get a “tail wags the dog” situation. I personally watch this situation with great interest and without prejudice.
There IS ONLY ONE REASON why acampo WILL WANT to set up camp in kenya….that is KENYAS hospitality and way of life is so good for any expatriates that it almost like paradise for these mzungus….
THE WAY Kenyans treat them is like they are gods..
BUT FOR us who reside abroad ..we know exactly how most of these mzungus feel about sisi wenyeji…
I was appalled that each time accampo comes to Kenya HE is given presidential like security and DO YOU KNOW that when he arrives back in Rome ..he rides a cabb to his office? AND there is no personal security provided to the level of kenyas
BUT LET THEM come …we need those jobs for Kenyas doing all the leg work
who knows may be kenya might turn out to be like the HQ ICC in AFRICA …just like the way UNEP came about…
THIS LINK was meant to attach to my post
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Kenyas%20ministers%20meet%20Hague%20official%20/-/1056/1001534/-/l33uij/-/index.html
Am glad….am far away…and indeed very far away…
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Changaa%20on%20%20its%20way%20to%20your%20favourite%20bar%20/-/1056/1001464/-/520gv0/-/index.html
@collins areba
@mugwiira
@ole nkerai
MAYBE we need to see who is causing these fears….from alshabab…..I THINK i have an idea ….
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/africa/Al%20Shabaab%20tells%20of%20air%20raid%20fears/-/1066/1001400/-/h64oyf/-/index.html
why on earth would we dream of going in to kivu while somalia is burning next door,this is a paradox!!
GUYZ..DUE TO THE HEAVY DISCUSSION..I HAVE STARTED A DISCUSSION FORUM FOR OUR ISSUES. …A BLOG IS NO LONGER APPROPRIATE FOR THIS DISCUSSION AND MUCH MORE….I HAVE PUT A FEW OF OUR DISCUSSIONS ON THE NEW BOARD…IT HAS MORE FLEXIBILITY SUCH AS PICS AND VIDEOS…
PLEASE GO TO: http://nipate.com/viewforum.php?f=3
LETS SHIFT OUR DISCUSSION TO NIPATE.COM…EVERYONE SHOULD GET A USERNAME…I HOPE TO GROW THE FORUM TO ATTRACT HEALTHY DISCUSSION.
THANKS GUYS ..AND I APPRECIATE YOUR TIME ON THIS BLOG.
A brilliant idea. Will try the new site.
i have gone to this new link and just cant make up my mind if i should continue there or keep blogging here..
I also followed the link and see no real need to change sites. This is a good blog. Mature, self-moderated bloggers with informed contributions. The quality of the discussion is likely to suffer elsewhere.
It seems to be a totally new blog with contributions drawn from other sites, including Mashada. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. I went there too but the bloggers and discussions are of quite a different calibre.
However, if the main bloggers move there, I shall follow suit.
@ Spiderman
i have really been learning a lot from all the contrbutions here as i had mentioned earlier. i hope the blogging won’t stop.
Its always a challenge overcoming inertia in a group where people have become more accustomed and comfortable. Personally, my motto remains “If it aint broke, dont bother trying to gix it”
Back onto matters UAV. What do you guys think of this :
Im finding it increasingly plausible after some documentary showed clearly that for communication (cited as the single bottleneck on adoption of UAVs), many use multiple techologies, starting from radio for LOS, cellular and then ultimately Satellite. I believe for local defense, the first three can be utilized, and for the last hurdly, wouldnt be too hard havine several up there providing vital COM links back to base to cover enemy territory, especially where the enemy in question is not very far.
I love the content of these blog…I am not a man in uniform physically but one at heart…..I love and adore all of you who have managed to be real sons of this soil…..I appreciate the sacrifice that you have taken to protect our motherland…our pride….i wish i can reach out on you and toast with you brave men…to a prosperous….peaceful….proud Kenya!!!
remember birthday http://www.helpflap.ru/
@twikas,
This site is ONLY for professionals and mature people some of whom are senior officers in the Kenyan military. Kindly refrain from posting childish things. Go to other blogs where this kind of stupidity is allowed. Consider that you are not welcome to this blog if this is your kind of debate. Fall out.
Hahaha..Olekoima. Christ, what was that? A summary trial at a court-martial? I nearly choked with laughter on the very military “fall out” bit. Nice reprimand.
@twikas
“It’s not the size of the boat but the motion in the ocean” techniques my dear twikas not size
@twikas
please be advised that this blogg has been primarily discussing serious topical issues AND THEREFORE POSTING A LINK SUCH AS THE ONE YOU HAVE JUST DONE ON 4TH SEPTEMBER2010 AT 07.17 PM isdoing us a deservice and also an unnecesary distraction.
I THINK THE BLOG ADMIN SHOULD AND MUST REMOVE THIS OFFENSIVE LINK PROMPTLY…
We seriously need to adequately prepare for any eventuality in the Sudan. We also need to intensify our foreign policy there too.There is a serious arms build up there which will only require a spark to ignite a conflagration. On which side shall we stand given that we are the sponsors of the peace agreement? If push comes to shove, are we going to abandon the Southerners at their hour of need?
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36174
THE story of Kampala bombing continues….but as the picture in Sundays daily nation shows..the health facility in Kampala looks like a scene at blast site itself.
IF Mulago hospital which was once a very reputably run insituition looks like this and yet it is supposed to be the main health facility in UGANDA..i really wonder….
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Police%20arrest%20another%20Kampala%20blast%20suspect/-/1056/1004194/-/b7maccz/-/index.html
Every effort must be made to keep the peace in Sudan. But if push comes to shove, we shall have to make a choice. We have already invested too much diplomacy, too many resources and too many lives to stand idly by while SS is denied its sovereignty. That would be plain idiocy. Juba must come into our East African fold. Hopefully our deterrent will suffice, but if not…
Peacemakers are armed with pens. Peacekeepers are armed with guns. I take it that the delivery of the new birds is slated for November. I would imagine that all other technicalities are in place. Impeccable timing.
On S.Sudan:
Ideally a peaceful outcome should be the best foreign policy solution kenya should have with our neighbours in the north. its really simple, they are our real neighbours, not the north. That said, the North stands to lose more with a war in the south, the chinese, the japanese, kenya, Uganda and uncle sam must be all too willing to wage a proxy war in the south should the north want to misbehave. This would also inadvertently affect potential revenues from the oil fields in the vicinity of a possible warfront.
On a related matter, any updates from our westernmost neighbour? how is kivu?
i doubt the security of the new blog.too many external social networking sources like mashada involved.am staying here.
on to matters business i dont think a war in sudan is going to break out anytime soon. at least not because of the CPA business. no one can risk it or afford it at the moment. but if it does we will have no choice but to step in in fact we are guaranteed a piece of the action either covertly or otherwise we will be on the ground.
@ D
ndugu yangu. ni bunduki i asked hapa?
Risasi, on August 30, 2010 at 6:42 am Said
Pole ndugu risasi that kind of got away from me. Unajua hio masaa ilikuwa na shughuli nyingi. The folding stock tells me you most likely saw an FN Minimi. The paras got a few in mid last year and more beginning of this year. its been deployed to some units as an SAW. These same units now pack the CAR-15 as a primary weapon MP5 SD as the secondary weapon and a semi auto sidearm. They are also the same units that are trained for short jumps from the Y-12. Basically light airborne/spec. forces. There have also been light acquisition of the M249 for field humvees. But what you saw is most likely a minimi.
SOUTH SUDAN ACQUIRE FIRST SET OF MILITARY AIRCRAFT
you do realize that your website bears absolutelly no credibility don’t you? pos a link from a website of repute for all i know you could just be gossiping.
NOW russia sighns deal with isreal
http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE6850YY20100906
Is this the bigining of the end of IRAN?
This may as well curtail iranian ambitions and force them to the negotiating table.
Some interesting news.
http://www.newvision.co.ug/D/8/220/731119
Something new on the tech front.
a laser that mimics heat signatures to thwart missiles. I can see how this can be applied to “return to sender” a missile.
http://www.engadget.com/2010/09/06/u-of-m-lasers-mimic-helicopter-heat-signatures-thwart-missiles/
@D
These 3 rifles are really good. Its supprising to see that the MP5 SD is actually a G3. the recoil brother nimekubali this gun can be fired with a 16yre old kid bila shida. It seems 20para budget iko sawa.
This is the other machine am talking of ni hii iko na hii R’meh showing the mweshimiwa.
@Spider
This is dedicated to spider who is looking for clips on kenya military. Go through part 1,2, and 3. hope you will enjoy them.
@Risasi
The MP5 and the G3 share some characteristics mostly aesthetic figures seeing as both are made by heckler an koch. But the G3 is a dedicated battle rifle hardy and resistant also easy to use. Its range and power are extraordinary. However its bulk and weight make it unsuitable for light infantry troops and airborne units. This thing hits you on the shoulder joint the whole arm falls off while the MP5 is a compact sub machine gun designed for close combat or wet work as we call it in our place. Its 9 mm chambering is not that powerful and it doesn’t have much range…hence the term wet work coz to use it you have to get close and personal and you might get blood splashed on you…..however it is silent, accurate and spits like its being paid to. Their parts are not interchangeable this makes them 2 completely different pieces.
@D
very impressive
what about the one in the match and shoot clip above with Yusuf hajji?
in this clip i also see the CAR-15
The M5 is also used in enclosed compounds becoz the 9mm round doesn’t ricochet so much. And, 9mm, while being toothless against body armor, has tremendous stopping power against unprotected targets.
Submachine guns are therefore mostly used as a law enforcement weapon. I am of the view however, that in African conditions, the M5 would make a good tactical gun, as well. Why use an AKM when your enemy wears jeans and an Arsenal t-shirt, and only 100m effective combat range is needed?
Was recently shopping at Game Lugogo in Kampala, and came across some big guy’s SUV being protected by two fellows hanging out with box magazine fitted RPK’s, Rambo-style. He-he.
talk about over the top security….uganda carries it wit this one.its not long ago M7 travelled with an APC in his entourage.the added to at least 3 pickups of troops with heavy weaponry.i think its the same mentality that made the ex prezzo insist on F5 escorts whenever he left or arrived into the country.
i think former prezi moi security was the best organized i had seen in the 24 years he was in power.
remember this was a man who was constantly on the move every day all over the country… then throw in one or two trips abroad every six to seven weeks during the last seven years of his rule..and you will have a well oiled security machine on the move all the time..we HAD teams and teams of various people on the ground days before he was to visit any place…listening walking ..checking and preparing for any eventuality..
THERE were no unnecesary traffic jams since he was a stickler to time and efficiency…unlike the current man who has a problem with time keeping.
THAT fixation with F5 escort came about by shear poor judgement…remember mzee kenyatta who had a phobia of flying only flew once during his entire time in leadership and this was once betwwen kenya and zanzibar in 1966/67.ON HIS WAY back to kenya the plane encountered very severe tarbulance and the old man who was livid with fear demanded the pilot to land as soon as possible.
The plane landed in mombasa and the rest of the journey to nairobi two days later was motorised by road
kenyatta never flew again until his death.
MOI visited isreal and his plane was met by ISREALI JETS TO escort him due to hostile environment at that time.
HIS entourage were so impressed that someone brought up the idea for KAF to do likewise .
THEY did it for while and stopped after it was logistically very challenging and at times impractical
THE most challenging security job i ever saw and took part was during the POPES visits to kenya .That is a story for another day.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/09/07/florida.quran.burning/?hpt=Sbin#fbid=ZGYrGCr6aME&wom=false
That there my bro Risasi is the Negev courtesy of our Israeli brothers at IMI.
wazee your heading towards the right direction. these are active used weapons by global powers . keep it up boys
what is the sense behind buying the M249 and The FN Minimi? si ni kama kununua mkate ya Paul’s and Elites. yote ni mkate bado.
The forthcoming referendum in the Sudan is going to be a tricky one. I still think that the north might not let go of the south without a fight. Things are not that rosy, we need to prepare. Even uncle Sam appears to be resigned to this fate.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36226
hi guys.thanx guys for the amazing work u r doin here.a very insightful thread especialy for a military buff who is sometimes pissed of by the amount of secrecysarrounding the kenyan military.i hav sm questions for the military guys here.are there elite special forces in the kenyan army like the delta force or devgru of the u.s. and i dnt mean in the gsu.reason for the question is i grew up in germany and a couple of my childhood friends r in the KSK (special forces of their army) and the little info iv been able to get frm them has made me marvel at the superhuman stuff these guys r traind to do. sory for diverting the discusion
@ KenyanGerman
Spec Ops Division is deliberately taking shape in Kenya, recognition in Planning Circles that the threat of a Large-Scale War requiring Massed Numbers and a General Mobilization in the future is remote and unreal. War in this Century is essentially Specialist both in its Projection and Deterrence. It is what has bogged down the UPDF against Company-size criminal bandits of the LRA; wore out the North Sudan against SPLA, and what is causing M7 to look so inadequate in the Mogadishu stand-off. In general terms therefore, the Paradigm in Kenya has shifted from Massed Infantry formations to Light-Calvary Formations, with varying depths of Specialization developing from the Unit’s Specific Tasking and Philosophy. So, yes, we have various elements now grouping around Spec Ops, and all very clearly differentiated from each other so as to avoid the fratricidal duplication of roles and the resultant competition for resources that is so prevalent in the Us-army – unlike them we have limited resources. Other Arms of the Armed Forces such as Armor, and Anti-armor, Air and Water, Schools, Logistics, etc, continue to develop and grow in tandem – with a redefined Philosophy that interprets our evolving Military attitudes,but the Land Army is evolving and in very aggressively radical ways from traditional African land Armies.
@kenyangerman
@ole nkerai
MAYBE simple and easy explanation of kenya special forces could be classified at the bigginng as the 20 para chute batalion and the upcoming recently launched rangers batalion who i hear will be trooping their colours on 12th december 2010?
within the AP they have a heavily armed unit called rapid deployment unit RDU which is self reliant and is meant to supplement the GSU..?
Pat. You wrong with your hip-shoot response. First of all the RDU is not part of the Spec Ops Division, but a SWAT-designed component of Civilian Policing, an aggravated Flying Squad if you want. Look into my earlier posts on this very subject, a few months ago, and you will see the composition and differentiation of Uniformed Forces in Kenya. See how the where the GSU stop and the RDU begin, in aggressive-population suppression, and where these two receive mandate from the Military. Spec Ops is purely a Military Designation, and those elements so designated are solely in the Military Command Structure. Their TOR, stores, training, command-coordination and more importantly their Civilian Oversight is different from the RDU and GSU/GD grouping. The Paratroops Btn was the breeding ground initially as the largest Light Calv component of the Armed Forces of Kenya. Not so any longer, as we have developed and continue to develop smaller tasks-specific Spec Ops elements on Land-and-Sea. I hear talk now of a Fighter-jockeys Ace School is considered to better matriculate the expected infusion of 4th Gen Fighters into the KAF. Essentially, this is all in recognition that we must underwrite the anticipated Economic Expansion by an expanded Military Propensity to Decisive Violence against threats to this Economic Expansion, lest we should be building on quick sand otherwise.
@ole nkerai
i expected this kind of response from you.kindly be aware that my response on the same to @kenyagerman had two question marks after each paragraph…NOT BEACAUSE i did not know the exact composition and disposition of kenyas armed forces..but because i was probing this new bloger on this site whose motives are unknown.
i HAVE acurate snd very up to date infor on some of SOPS of kenyas armed forces which for the purposes of this blog ..i only mention in passsing,, so that the generarities of the exact events are shrouded in owe and mystery…
THIS is why bloging is very much at times in restrospect a tool of secondary and at times primary prism of counter disinformation activity…so do not tell me that am wrong or right every time you respond to my responses on this open site.
These savage animals in the DRC honest-to-god give untutored animals a bad name! Eeeiish!! MONUC should simply get out, and let us sort them out – a hunting License with a open quota is what is needed to be issued out on these animals, friends.The whole Eastern Congo seethes with all manner of emotions, terror, and people, it reeks of death, the despair so thick it hammers you in the stomach the very instant you deplane. You spend more than a week there, and your mind starts wandering, your soul retches with horror. Tis like the Devil came down in Ituri / Kivu, settle down, and introduced his very own brand of Governance. Hell on Earth!!
I DONT REALLY UNDERSTAND why the largest FORCE in un peace keeping history IS failing so spectacularly. There ARE CLOSE TO 20,000 men in this force and the recent atrocities are reported to have occured WITHIN 20 KMS OF un patrol bases.
IS it poor LEADERShIP or poor execution of the mandate?INDIA contributes the largest group of men close to 6000.
Kenya is on observer status with about 50 OR LESS NUMBER OFFICERS ONLY.
There is something fundamentally wrong with the basic operations of this MISSION.
Again Pat, you are dead wrong about Kenya’s deployment in the Ituri. But you are quite right it was initially sent in as a MOB and the numbers were about that many THEN. As I have stated before in this blog, both this Deployment and its Mission Statement have changed several times since, in response to the changing dynamics over the period. Of course, if your sources are the usual Civilian Sites, usually never updated and usually rehashing the same old tired lines such as the unsubstantiated Rwanda and Darfur Genocide Figures, (repetition acquires truth!) mostly intended to obfuscate the real causes for and the true villains of these horrible events, it is likely to Mark-time on this same spot. But the main failure of the MONUC is several, some being the poorly defined Mission-statement particularly in defining their opponents and rules of engagement, the incredibly poor motivation of the peacekeepers and their leadership, the horridly wrong command and coordination structure of the various MONUC elements, the apathy of the people in whose name these MONUC Peacekeepers are deployed. But the greatest is the perfidy and corruption of the Western Economic Interests who have ensured the Congo and other Mineral-rich parts of Africa are perpetually in ungovernable chaos from which they have profited by their unrestricted and shameless plunder of these Mineral Richesse.
http://www.rabbitspiral.ru/en/
How is this related to our discussions?
http://allafrica.com/stories/201009060847.html
Excellent article
very good and provacative piece of insiightfull and well researched material.
Captures quite well the salient facts. Good read.
@
blog just ignore that guy who is posting those silly websites
admin should act by removing such childish links or else most serious blogers will walk away.
@spiderman.
Pat, it does seem that the adage is wisely appropriate here – once a spook, always a spook. In mysterious, convoluted strategic thinking, you win hands down. But when it is served to me, I can tell the trees from the forests just as good, buddy. Even the empty spaces between the trees I can quite as well discern – without assistance.
good …very good .so let us keep it that way….NO HARD FEELINGS.
Spider its an open secret that the blog has split into two factions one is still rooted here and the other is at new kenya talk forum. this why you are being caned for
@i have only one wife
oh YEAH AM REMOTELY LOOKING AT THAT NEW SITE and what i see is that it is a concerted effort by forces unknown to search and chanell particular types of information….and once i get to the bottom of it i will definately jump in..but for now am just snoozing.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
WE had a very animated and passionate discussion last nite with one kenyan lecturer at a leading UK UNIVERCITY who intimately persuaded me that the percived fall out between RAILA and RUTO was nothing but a smokescreen for bigger things…
he told us that the shoving of Ruto into the NO camp and THE HIGHLY CHARGED publiced percived fall out was canningly calculated to create a kingpin for the KALENJIN voting block away from KING moi ..such that come 2012 the …or ANY FUTURE ELECTION young RUTO will be the undisputed leader or king maker of any KENYAN political landscspe..
i must admit the writer of this article on PRESIDENT BASHIR is spot on.
http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/Best%20international%20practice%20absolves%20Kibaki/-/440808/1008218/-/n2hyd9z/-/index.html
M7 body guards cause kenyan presidents head of security to loose his post…see the attached abstract report from AFRICA INTELLIGENCE
KENYA
Kenya:Lucy Kibaki, the Iron Lady
After keeping a low profile during the first half of 2010, the Kenyan First Lady has once again become the boss in the State House.
The Kenyan First Lady, Lucy Kibaki, who had stayed away from the Madaraka Day celebrations (ION 1287) on 1st June, made a spectacular appearance in public in Uhuru Park, Nairobi, on 27 August at the ceremony to promulgate the new constitution. Lucy Kibaki showed that she was still as touchy and bad tempered as ever, reprimanding the head of the presidential security escort, Benson Kibue Githinji, over a trifle. The incident during the ceremony occured when she complained to Githinji about the presence of the bodyguards of the visiting Heads of State – particularly those of the Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni – in the official grandstand alongside her husband Mwai Kibaki. She did not appreciate Githinji’s reply that it was not his job to handle matters of protocol. Lucy Kibaki, who likes to be obeyed, flew off the handle and waited for the right time to take her revenge against the head of the presidential escort. It did not take long! On 30 August, as the Kenyan President was getting ready to fly to Swaziland for a Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa) summit, his wife objected to Githinji flying in the same aeroplane as her. She then had Githinji’s bags taken off the plane. The President was therefore obliged to revise the security team accompanying him at the last minute. Since then, Lucy Kibaki has banished Giithinji from the State House, decreeing that she never wanted to see him again. She has also informed the police commissioner, Mathew Iteere, that Githinji had been relieved of his functions.
EH ?maze huko kwa kina nairobi pundit siendi ….for now…..kumewaka moto.
LOOKS like the shit has hit the fun for M7 AS WELL…we always new that once they no longer need him they will start by bringing up all the dart from the toliet
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1009626/-/co6jfuz/-/index.html
@ Sipderman
kuna watu na viyatu bwana………. mswahili says: if you see a frog running very fast in broad day light know they is something big behind it either a snake or kitu kama hiyo. naona jasiri ameruka pia.
like what D said the aspect of that blog turning to a 2 masada web is very imminent.
but guys if an S.O.S signal calls i will be counting on your previous expertise to bale out our long old friends
P/S
this Nairobi chronicles need to give us pages in this blog its to lengthy.
@Risasi,
Thanks for the concerns. The reason for spending money to start the other forum was for flexibility and better service to you guys.You can see we already have a challenge with the lenght due to lack of capacity to add new pages.
The website shall not turn into a mashada. Lawlessness shall not be allowed.
@ all
I am registering at nipate.com. Will still keep checking on nairobichronicle regularly.
The bulletin board format is more suitable for online discussion purposes. Just remember that the board will record your IP, and be careful with cookies and giving out personal data because phpBB used by nipate is not invulnerable to exploits. Otherwise no problem.
@ADMIN
If I was to advice you. Call for 1 week blog meeting. Let all blog member air out there concern and what they expectations from you. What they would like to have and what they distaste. I personally see many things that will make me not to move into your site. My advice call a meeting i.e a one week open topic on nipate.com here at the Nairobi chronicles. Respect these guys don,t just throw something for the to chew. this gentlemen have created niches and respect in this blog. They have fought among themselves and madeup again.they have they own reputations and status. you can,t just expected them to packup and leave on your command. BEEG EAGLE, tried and he failed flat foot, his web died of natural causes.This blogs cover arrange lot of expertise’s not only spread across the country out globally.
ole Nkarei kDOD
D spec op Para
One man army infantry??
Jasiri oscillates along the coast region
Mwaistar a journalist
Mugwiira, very enlightened neighbor
SPIDERman, special branch
BEEG EAGLE, orga from the west.
enthusiastic chaps like Olekoima (our chief wipe), Vitruvian, Alehandro, i have only one wife ,kenya-ace(enlightened airman) chinook (precision question man) Microprocessor, chalo etc not forgetting our mad men in the market
Seedlong ,Tororo, Fuji
This just my opinion.
Finally what I have been waiting for . a larges episode similar to the Kenya F-15 saga has emerged in a large scale. The Yankees want to prove a point and break hearts and minds among allies who look East for arsenals.
http://arabdefense.blogspot.com/2010/06/russia-woos-saudis-to-buy-weapons.html
.
It barely two years since the Saudi purchased the above weapons.s conversion and weapon familiarities procedures are still on the table when boom!!!
the Saudis have been pushed to buy hardware frankly speaking they don’t need or have them in soviet instructions.
similar and Identical arsenal that rival what the purchased from the east has been offered.
Does the blog get my point and see the picture know. Ex-British armor Challenger tanks and the F-15 from the Americans.
Yule haja elewa aseme I will explain again in details.
they are trying to tell the saudis that the purpose is to counter the percived iranian threat…but frankly speaking IRANs main focus in the middle east is ISRAEL..
@ Risasi, Mugwiira.
On your suggestions and advise vide this new site NIPATE.COM, I fully second that view. Way to go .
Your hip-shot on the Saudi deal spot on, and the reverse-sting you imply quite correctly possible. Lakini, hatulali, jamani, we are wide awake. The Geopolitical landscape of this region is so fluid and evolving so rapidly, and all away from the stereotype drawn by the West. In this mix, Kenya rules, not just by Military/Economic means, but more importantly Intellectual ability which in essence influence all aspects of human evolution. We have cards on the table, and under the table too, that were not even conceivably possible to conjure by any stretch of the imagination barely 20 years ago. They want what KENYANA has, they must deal with us, particularly now that we seem about to finally get the Political Pillar of our Nationhood right this time – that was the messed and weak pillar for long. Hawa jamaa tunawajua viema, na tutawaplay sawasawa to glean the most for our people.
@mugwiira
@ole nkerai
@vitruvian etc
AND others here GREETINGS…
on this new site you are spot on…but for a spooked spooker like i once was… i suppose one can register a phantom user profile with user ID details for a while then once confidence builds up revert to normalitty…later even though internet traffic can be tracked via user IP addresses and user passwords etc..this is only a temporary recourse.
The primary concern is who accesses this information and if we have instances where user ID can be compromised for other clandestine and disruptive purposes..
However since i live in a society where privacy laws are properly applied,i will register as well on nipate.com and see how to participate…so far there are some former nairobi cronicle performers there so i wont be lonely.
@risasi
i can see two competing blocks here for the SAUDI WEAPONS thing.
Obama needs it for his political survival while the Russians are badly in need of foreign money.
The current Islamaphobic temperature in the US is not helping things and if the saudis keep pushing things towards the east you will soon see the WESTERN media RATCHET up things by bringing up all the bad things this so called undemocratic kingdom does to suppress its people.
For us Kenyans we should push on creating this vast economic pipeline from the coast to south sudan, make sure the tall thin man falls in line and surpress the m7 by cutting his wings untill he understands we are the master then only will the rest come calling on our terms
We laid a giant ghost to rest by passing the new political dispensation
Now the comonwealth comes calling,the US wants a fresh ambasador with local roots and OBAMA himself is semi local so what can stop us? i can see that pax Kenyana? dream i have read about on nipate com is starting to takes shape some how…just watch lamu port .
AM GETTING IN.
@ spider it might look like that on the surface but believe me they is more then what meets the eyes in this Deals.
Risasi, how can you entice us like this then not tell us?
Yaani, we’re priming the engines and ready to go full throttle.
Yes and this is the way to go:
http://allafrica.com/stories/201009140203.html
gentlemen of the blog i have signed up on NIPATEcom and have already thrown in a few “grenades” into the room for discussions and so far i think the reactions are good so i suggest we all pool in and inject substance for all our chosen fields for now.
ama?
the critics must leave us ALONE
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Club%20boss%20says%20Kenya%20in%20order%20over%20al-Bashir%20/-/1064/1011186/-/lenq30z/-/index.html
guy i think we shouldn,t be i a hurry lets discuse with the Admin. get a good Contigency plane the move in us a block. we we get into a consensors.
What a nice welcome to Nairobi. Our new mils are in perfect flying condition, i feel like a vip :-). anyway i think we should read this http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1011128/-/cnpo15z/-/index.html. so does this affect the grant given to Kenya to build some road in the rift valley?
on the question of A.P Vs Police i personally think that the A.P should be re-trained and re-deployed as a purely border guard/coast guard force. we could even furnish them with old SISU 6*6 to deal with the Shabab, merilles and adventurous Toposa. that would mean when the military is called in, no questions asked, it’s a major storm. That in essence would necessitate a small domestic defence industry. i don’t see why Kenya can’t attempt this. we have the Britts who are falling all over themselves to be relevant again, if we buy the schematics for the Vickers Mk3 then do a major makeover for it eg. Install Passive armour like the Magach/Sabra replace the royal ordnance L7A1 with the Rhein metal L44 smoothbore and a 7.62 slaved to the main gun, install a new catherine thermal imager with a Knight mk3 FCS, obviously that would mean a new redesigned turret. we throw out the continental diesels for an MTU, some new tracks for the increased speeds. V shapped hull bottom for the minefields, a Radar Warning Reciever/Infra Red warning sytem with smoke grenade dischargers slaved to it to trigger automatic smoke discharging ama we go with the russian Shtora system? we give it a snorkel for amphib ops and river crossing et voila! new powerfull “Kenyan” tank. a downgraded version to be marketed aggresively within the E.A.C and subsequently COMESA block. Africa has a huge rotting armoured corp and someday they will need replacement. with projects like LAPSSET and the soon-to-be-built rail link to Uganda we can afford to arm twist neighbours to buy kenyan plus it be a big boost to ational security as no one can dare attack us when we supply them with armour. Ole Nkarei please furnish us with a cost benefit analysis. Mugwiira and spiderman tell us ’bout the implication of going independent.
this post was meant for Kenya air force buys junk fighters.
An interesting read:-
http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/business/Kenyabusiness/Kenya-economy-to-buoy-the-Sub-Sahara-4678.html
@olekoima
HI, the link you have posted is not loading up ..seems to freeze my machine…could you please re-post the link ?thanks
SPIDERman, go to http://www.capitalfm.co.ke and scroll down to the “Business News” section. You’ll find the article there, on the right side of the page.
Sorry, anyhow Vitruvian has cracked it. Read the bit about ‘Kenyan economy to buoy Sub-Sahara’ by navigating thro as Vitruvian describes above. Sorry for the misbehaving link though.
GOTCHA! have read it and still digesting …looks very interesting times ahead for us indeed asante sana i hope there are no more guys who still want to “REFUDIATE” as (sarah pallin once used this unknown word) … … that we are heading for great times.
Just wondering loudly.
Why would Ugandan soldiers in Mogadishu require the heavy T-55 MBTs for the job at hand? Aren’t these too cumbersome for use in the streets?
In my view smaller vehicles such as Kenya’s Panhard AML would be highly effective. In addition these troops would need a good number of APCs instead and may just one helicopter gunship. What do others think?
i thought they had those glorified mambas there and if you ask me most of alshabab men are on foot and the moblile ones are using the technicals jeeps which are just landcruisers stolen from around east africa then cut in half to mount those heavy guns on the pick up track
IN MY O OPINION a few choppoers like the MD 500 would be perfect.
See this too:-
http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE68H00320100918?sp=true
@ Olekoima
AML wouldn’t be bad, even if its use were limited by its very light armor and vulnerability to IED’s.
The T-55’s 105mm gun is helpful when engaging enemies who use buildings for cover (even if AML 90 with its 90mm F1 gun is suitable, too). As they say, the tank is the best anti-sniper weapon.
More generally, I agree with you that we shouldn’t get over-enthusiastic about the MBT’s.
I think, if African militaries had the money to buy new stuff, they would’ve bought less tanks and more vehicles like the AMX-10RC or Centauro B1; these are lighter, more flexible, easier to maintain, and come with a LOT of punch. They can take on the T-55 handily, and are a serious threat for the T-72 (earlier-model at least).
@ SPIDERman – you are 100% on the money. Lighter helicopters are very suitable for fire support in urban areas, unless of course precision strikes are an option.
An absolutely outstanding discussion of urban warfare here:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/conf_proceedings/CF162/
I WAS reading the time magazine and came across this feature of AMERICAS MOST EXPENSIVE MILITARY PLANES AND WAS SURPRISED THAT THE F15 EAGLE IS NOT LISTED
http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1912203,00.html
@mugwiira
we are yet to see your valued input on this new site nipate.com.. man ..come on just pick any topic and jump in ..i think we are slowly injecting life there …unless you have reservations.
The AML is good and maneuverable for Urban warfare but it has a catch, it runs on Peugeots petrol Engine making very Quiet and speed of upto70 km/h but is expensive to run. Rwanda had several AML-60 models I don,t know if they are in service. They would be handy for these situations. counter attacks towards the border incase of any cross over is mainly backed by AML-90. Kenya,s AMLs have been upgraded with a. DANTE-FIRE control system awaiting the Toyota 2LT 102 diesel engine.
With all said and done it all depends on the overall training. We have read reports of field officers in Somali issuing maneuvers that are ridicules or suicidal. The T-55 to Somalia by UG. Was largely meant for psychological reasons in the UG operations rather then fire power. (Intimidate the foe with hardware). the effects has failed or they haven’t executed it properly. I feel they have run out of cards on these operations.
Kenya is being pressed to officially cross over.
it funny i do not see any mention of Bashir by Ban Ki Moon here when he meets Kibaki here..
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/1014100/-/11kbua2z/-/index.html
@ Risasi – the biggest problem of UPDF in Somalia is that they only patrol and don’t fight for terrain. In urban operations, it doesn’t matter how much firepower you have if your troops refuse to dismount and fight on foot.
Indeed, quiet operation is a valuable feature of an armored vehicle in urban fighting. That’s why the US Army Stryker – a rather mediocre IFV imho – has received a lot of positive publicity in Iraq.
@ SPIDERman – no reservations against nipate.com, just time constraints. Will be there soon..
Dying in Somalia for an UPDF slog is not that appealing, and particularly knowing their training and motivation. Somalia is a million miles from his lonely wife in some village in Mbarara raising kids all by herself. The in-theatre pay is what takes these boys to somalia, the geopolitical considerations are not visible to them at all. A bit of coercion too, I expect. Under these circumstance, do you see them doing anything more than driving around without tactic reasoning and fighting only when they are themselves endangered? Now, send in “D” with and hand-full of his hard men, and watch them dance in Mogadishu – Somalia is in our living-rooms, our schools, our roads, daily and weekly. Some long-nose trying to entice us into active and overt deployment in Somalia – to sort out their mess and then hand over Somalia back to their Conglomerates. They left M7 high and dry and his boys taking a hell of a beating on all sides, hiding like bunnies in their dug-outs afraid even to see what round the corner!! NO-can-do. Possible talk of a quick-expeditionary insertion to extract the M7’s beleaguered boys , but that’s about it. Play this our way.
@Mugwiira you have very precise ideas on warfare. If you de-enlisted a talent has be lost waste man. It is 100% true that you can,t occupy and enforce with out disembarking from APC. That’s the scary part for them.
To add on what ole Nkarei said, the UPDF are fighting a TIT for TAT war. Typical rag tag warfare. You attack them they come running after you. I wonder if they have any local intel gathering units. I never had them raiding or attacking hidden premise out of the mundane eye view.
Ole nkari, Risasi you were argueing against changeing the UPDF’s mandate in somalia so how do you expect them to get the insurgents? the peace keeping mandate that the UPDF has only allows for exactly that tit for tat. they can not attack al-shabab with this kind of mandate so you should not expect much from such restrictions. hornestly I think if more UPDF are killed then m7 will then throw these rules out and then have some real headway in this war
It won’t work my brother Tororo. Uncle Sam already placed restrictions to ensure nothing more happens.He prefers things to remain as they are.I wonder how Somalia will be sorted out. It might help Uganda and Burundi to pull out coz i think they stand to lose more if this state of affairs goes on.
My brother Tororo, it is good to see you still here, and I for one value you, irregardless of whatever distempered exchanges between all of us. I think that w cannot grow without divergences of opinions, which I encouraged vigorously with chaps I share delegated authority . So, allow me to remind that my first comment on UPDF response to the Kampala Event was that a more robust deployment through either official / sanctioned changes in the rules of engagement, or unilateral enforcement of a robust posture, was not possible due to a lack of capacity by the UPDF and also because it would not be in the National Interests of Kenya, and indeed would be resisted even by force of arms by Kenya. Words I used was that we would not allow the same adventurism in Somalia that M7 and the Tall Thin Man devastated Eastern Congo with. Also that if UPDF were to unilaterally alter their Mandate, we would eventually have to go in to extract them out. The only recourse M7 presently has is either completely disengage now with his pride and tough guy reputation tattered somewhat, or and escalate his deployment and still get his backside kicked terribly at great loss of equipment and Men. Hard Place and the Rock, my brother. But for this Region, as it evolves into an socio-economic Block, such “slash-and-burn” antics are not desired any longer and strong-hard-men are verily an endangered species. Somalia is a pretty much controlled chaos situation, as it is now, and must run its course for real peace to emerge. Meantime, the rest of us can ignore it somewhat and carry on with the preparations for when this low-grade conflict will eventually patter out, and the belligerents tire of the senseless no-gain-all-pain sce
…..scenario and reach for negotiations with a common and deliberate purpose.
@ Tororo
Yes spy chief its been some time since you contributed? Let me summaries the operation in a paragraph.
it seems that the UPDF has been caught in a limbo between peace keeping and peace enforcing or actually don,t know what to do. This lukewarm feature portrays a picture of unskilled peacekeepers or incompetence peace enforcer.
Doesn’t UPDF have alternate plans incase one fails? It looks like the UPDF only know a single script in warfare and will hang on to it come what may. The same architect lingers on the failure of pacify the Northern regions of your country and carbon copy operations and results in Somali not forgetting DRC operation. i think you will know concer with me its not only equipment that matter but the skills and know how of conducting them as a single picture
@ blog
we need a good and organized forum guys. Any blogger knowing computer experts or friends to create or open one ? The Nairobi Chronicle service is sub standard in this age and time. How can blog running on a single page with no modern features.
FROM what i have seen all last three weeks kenya is a lone ranger trying to get USA to committ more resources for somalia.THE uncle sam IS RELuCTANT AND UNTIL some thing big happens to AMERICAN CITIZENS that is traced directly to somalia it unlikely that this posture will change
IN NEW YORK THIS week Barack obama skipped all meetings related to somalia discussions but instead attended in person the one sloted for SUDAN.
THAT is one hell of a statement.
SINCE THAT blackhawk was downed and american bloodied bodies drugged thru the streets of mogadishu 19 years ago…these guys said never and never again and also remember it happened on the democrats watch
WE east africans must sort this ourselves.
@blog admin
i think the money spent developing and setting up nipate com should have used to develop this nairobi cronicle blogg ..however as for me am multitasking between the two
@ tororo
its good to see you back..was wndering why the silence…
how is the political climate those sides.HOW MUCH WILL the democrats loose in november?….i have a hard job within next two months trying to come up with a likely scenario.I HAVE A TASK for last three WEEKS INTO THE november 2nd to moniter all news media in the states to see the trend of reporting and coverage of the events
@risasi
i think you need not be very stuck here at cronicle only…we need you huko nipate com pia
Risasi even I based thousands of miles away knows that its been more than five years since there was a shot fired in N. Ug (atleast against the LRA) so I expected you to know that the theater of war has been moved in congo and C.A.R. The only roblem hindering UPDF progress is the mandate given to it and by the way this is same problem the U.S had before. they were limited to just patroling the coast in the black hawks and giving protection to UN relief workers. they were only allowed to go after Aidid when they thought that takeing him away would bring peace to somalia. so enforceing peace in active battle is impossible. it’s like trying to stop 2 people fighting without knocking at least one of them out.
@ spiderman Nov 2 is going to be intresting most likely it will be a split house. the people who will determine the outcome are the independents and majority of them are pissed at obama. unfortunately the Us is a place where people vote because of sentment and don’t really take time to analyze the issues voteing Dem or Rep because their father and grandfather voted Dem or Rep. the only people who ever take time to analyze issues are the independent and they want immediate results. and the so called tea partiers have just thrown a spanner into the machine so nobody really knows what will happen but the Dems may have a slight margin of victory and may be obama may have some breathing room cause right now he is stressing
@ Tororo
F.Y.I
AMISOM mandate involves
supporting the transitional governmental structures
implement a national security plan,
training the Somali security forces,
assisting in creating a secure environment for the delivery of humanitarian aid
Among others
.these mandates are an elevation of the IGAD Peace Support Mission in Somalia or IGASOM, which was before AMISOM. IGASOM was draw from the igad countries. According to UN Security Council Resolution 1725, states bordering Somalia are not eligible to deploy troops. the burden fell on Sudan Uganda and Eritrea, the mission was expanded to include other Member States of the African Union hence AMISOM.
the latter mandate is open to live fire fighting .What other mandate do you need? Why are you asking for extra mandate while the above ones are still pending ? training which doesn’t involve direct conformations with the Militias has not gear up?
.[1]
simple task like paint schools, building mosque and roads to win the heart and mind of the society are unheard of. Holding talk is with the Al shabaab like what Kenya did in Sierra Leone That too you need a mandate for. These are basic rituals in peace keeping. Don,t just shell this guys and run street battles. Even in your house when you punish your child and physical punishment doesn’t seem to work, you sit and discuses the matter with the kid not so.
Just because the US failed in Somalia doesn’t translate to nobody can do the task. well it has been achieved else where
Risasi non of these give the UPDF an avenue to directly go after the al-shabab – supporting the transitional governmental structures
implement a national security plan,
training the Somali security forces,
assisting in creating a secure environment for the delivery of humanitarian aid – that means they can only defend or attack WHEN attacked. esentially this mandate is bogus in this situation.
@ Spiderman and the Blog at large
It s almost impossible at this moment for me to join nipate.com . In the beginning I taught
it was untidy and topics need to be rearranging and renamed. i called for an audience with the admin but my plea fell on dead ears. This revived a replica issue between the Nairobi chronicle and the Caption “Kenya Airforce buys junk fighter jets”. I one time requested a change on the caption but the admin refused as it attracted traffic to his blog. I made it a thumb rule that if they is no two way communication between the web admin and its member it becomes a no go zone.
Two way communications is essential when it come to forums that want to hold explicit information. We have seen what happened to the leaked classified documents of US troops in Afghanistan. similarly
I have seen pictures of restricted areas thanks to the modern technology of camera phones. therefore why should I input knowledge that will lead to publicity of a website that could jeopardize me or my collague for its own ratings.
my fear of an authoritarian show materialized when a picture of a known K.A.F pilot that, yes the has been circulating in other websites was hosted at nipate. members of nipate decided to play safe and remove it for what ever reason. That was my acid test I wanted to see how the admin will respond. To date the Picture still is on air against the plight of its members.
Guys pick your self up. Without ex-Nairobi chronicle member that web becomes a speculation and rumors forum just like Masada johnkaraja or the Kenya list. . Notice how many click that ex-nairobi chronicle member are attracting on their postings in nipate. Don,t be deceived by shinny items. Its what in the package that matter and not the wrappings. This is a service industry and the customer should always be king.
I believe in the freedom of speech and expression but it should be weight against a right to privacy and existence. I rest my case.
@Risasi
i have just checked and noticed that the admin on the nipate com has acted on some of our concerns and has indeed removed major Erics pictures from the string.
this is the right thing to do .
WE CAN PUBLISH PICTURES but we should avoid any that will identify such frontline military personel like a fighter pilot because his face becomes a propaganda tool if he falls into enemy hands.
right now we have F5 s tasked with patroling somalias coastline from mombasa there fore if one came down for any reason inside alshabab teritory you can imagine these way thugs will treat the subject.
PICTURES of top military brass or the CnC ARE NO PROBLEM FOR PUBLISHING because it is very unlikely or next to nil that they can fall into enemy hands.
meanwhile please dont think that am rooting for this new site ..but i just registered after noticing a marked improvement in its presentation and also a few veterans of the cronicle are keeping the site relevant
PLEASE JOIN US asante.
On the move to nipate.com.
From a purely technological perspective, creation of forums and categorizing sounds logical, from a tech evolution perspective however, a forum and a blog with comments exist at the same level. Which makes it less appealing to move to the forums unless all the information currently on the blog is migrated.
Additionally, given that both technologies exist at the same timeline, a move needs to be necessitated by something more, as the mantra goes, there is no need to change a working formula.
Moving however does offer more access to information like browsing habits, locations and with the right skillset one can easily map usage patterns and know a lot. Now for a site where information is contributed sometimes on a need to know basis, being able to pick trends is a very powerful thing.
My suggestion.
Do a SWOT analysis of what is here.
Plan a possible transition complete with migration and execution plans.
Involve the members in developing this.
@ areba
you are spot on …
maybe admin should recreate the cronicle to mirror the new site…with all settings etc
@spirerman thats the biggest challenge with a hosted application like this blog. efficient data migration often requires access to the database and for sure this is not possible here, more the reason it makes for an attractive platform to air sensitive matter.
Onto matters progressive, Have you guys considering hosting these discussions on a mailing list? mailman is an effective way of hosting these discussions without leaving too much debris on the internet.
Archives to these discussions can then be public or private, and with a little bit of work one can even attempt to archive old content from this blog from the email notifications.
What sayeth thee?
@ Tororo
“its been more than five years since there was a shot fired in N. Ug (atleast against the LRA)”.
Not quite. The LRA were pretty active in areas of WN bordering Southern Sudan through 2006, and their recce teams would emerge here and there in WN/Acholi well until the Garamba camp was hit.
Then, since 2nd half 2009, it seems there has been some LRA recce activity on the WN/DRC border. They may be probing for re-entry avenues.
Also, have a look at this:
http://www.afriqueavenir.org/en/2010/09/23/monusco-accuses-lra-of-involvement-in-arms-trafficking-through-drc-south-sudan/
As for the US operations in Somalia in 1992-1993, this was largely a self-created mess, little to do with the mandate. I suggest you google up “Critical Analysis on the Defeat of Task Force Ranger” by Clifford Day.
@areba
Well said and done. We don,t need to move the entire data from the core of this blog. If we move out of Nairobi chronicle, The blog will die a natural death. That’s it. Discussions elsewhere will be as interesting as it has always been here.
As we pour in our inputs just as we did for the Chronicles the new web will became famous and gain similar status. This will attract all sots of peoples. Some with constructive info and others with destructive or sensitive info. to curb the latter part cordially relationship must exist between the webmaster and the members. i Am not against info that portrays negative imagery . I respect freedom of expression and we can learn from it. But options and guarantees should exist to deal with sensitive info. that could pop up along the way.
@spider
the Nipate site runs the baton that “Kenya air forces buy junk jets” I believe in freedom of speech and rights to opinions. the only part I can play at this moment is to avoid contributing good and insight inform that will lift and publicize such places
I am here at the chronicles because its where I can get like minds and good challenging debates. Otherwise given an alternate venue I with the some local professionalism, I would be long gone.
Men, my gut tells me something might not be all right in this Nipate.com. And being not too brave a soul, I am going to circle wide around it for the time being. Risasi expresses serious concerns, as do others, at the security of this blog – hell, even the need for it. Haven’t heard anyone shout Counter-Intel for a myriad of functions, but only a fool would not feel his earlobes tingling warnings. I will back-trail it, let you chaps know. Areba makes good points, though actualizing just such will be challenging by any score. But tis a free-world, most of it, that is!!
Well, where there is a will , there is a way. A community built from highly respetable professionals like i see on this forum is what attracted me here. While most are strategists, many have a sense for professional work and sadly, nipate.com is hurriedly done. (not the content but the implementation of phpb.
Without going into the details, phpbb is an excellent piece of board software, it is most of the time how you configure it and where you host it that makes all the sense. the fact that you do not have root access (in shared hosts ) means you only manage permissions using .ini files which only offer a limited protection against sql injection. the dilemma being to either clamp down some features (file uploading etc) to enhance security or stay on the watch.
My concern about security comes from the fact that the access logs are now available in a not soo secure environment, these logs are very detailed and capture information such as your ip address every time you log in, how long you are online, your operating system, your browser and in effect someone with access to ISP data can track you to your specific location with little CSI style wow technology. Im not sure if thats risky but if my life depended on my identity and location being obscure, i would feel jittery.
however, as nipate.com is on and seems to recieve support, ill in due course submit my suggestions on hardening it with time.
Massively off-topic of course, but as long as we had touched upon Iran here before..
http://news.cnet.com/8301-27080_3-20017201-245.html
These chaps take no prisoners, Mugwiira!! Impossible to dismiss off-hand this report, and there are basics that authenticate it – however, all CI are based around a few believable truths and he sting then evolves from this. But, what a stroke, of genius!! You wear out yourselves scanning the skies for the fighter-bomber-launch bunker-missiles, and these chaps are quietly scheming with some nerds-types professors to take you permanently out of business!! Iran has developed a entire defense-industry of Counter-measures and zero-sum responses to attacks from Israel and the Support-States solely to safeguard THEIR NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT!! Makes a soldier feel completely outdated, these newfangled war schemes!!
any ideas ?
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g7OaI4_kjeHA-o4UhlmP7vlWmrrwD9IG7B4G1
@Tom
Just playing safe. you know how we roll. Contingency plan before deploying. Just wanted a gentleman’s agreement with the webmaster. Gave the site to some intel Boys and pointed it as “offshore site but safe”. nothing to worry the intels can bring it out if need be. Have my words things are ok. Project Nexus…..
@ Spider
Looks like the gunship was on recce sorties or a hunter kill mission. Rules of engagements pretty clear. “Engage if engaged on”.what I don,t understand is why it was a lone ranger in such a hostile area.
N/B
For a chopper to be that far they must have been a stop over or operated from a ship.
lets keep our ears on the ground.
@ Mugwiira back from the “Massive off topic”. The Iran/Israel engagement is almost over with credit to the isrealis brilliants plans. Its in the isrealis hands now on when to pull out the Iranian nuclear program when deem dangerous level. if you get what I mean. and have been following the current affairs.
@Tororo
you have lost contact with your motherland. UPDF request for an appeal in the mandate in Somali after the Kampala bombing. do you know what they asked for ? and what they were granted in that closed door meeting?
http://www.africareview.com/News/-/979180/1018010/-/ib3snwz/-/index.html
Tororo, the basic facts encapsulated in The Bullet-man’s Post on the IGAD’s Mandate to UPDF in Somalia is sufficiently unambiguous and robust as to obviate the lethargy and inactivity that has mired this Mission to an ineffectual laughing stock of AQ and the brigands of Al-Shabaab. UPDF has lost all Energy and Rapidity as to make its deployment useless at present. Military Commander in any possible or real Hostile Deployment, and this in fact is what will judge your competence and ability to lead men-of-war to harms way, is mandated by his responsibility to manifest without ambiguity the ability to protect his Deployment FIRST and Foremost. By whatever force available to him. He must establish sufficient depth of perimeter-security around his deployments, using whatever means available, including making unholy accommodations of sorts with the elements facing you. He is obliged to assess what equipment, tactics, and men he should require to simply keep his deployment substantially secure, and to get it in place. He defends to-depth, first, before he can pretend to defend anybody else – must project aggressively deterrent force that makes a clear statement of his capacity to thump them if he choses. He sends out aggressive Recon Units at all times, takes out anything that endangers the deployment – buildings, high-grounds, blind-spots, human habitations, bridges, you-name-it anything! He develops vectored-fire protocols that interlock – hell, he don’t seating around in exposed positions waiting to be pock-marked by such indiscipline irregulars who clearly are able to infiltrate his lines of defenses (if they exists) at will. The tactics UPDF is using, and I have observed them from up close on real-time in Mogadishu, are employment by irregular Armies, which are explained by the background of Origins of the UPDF. A redefinition of Mandate, by whatever English, if you want, will not energize the UPDF beyond the gratification of an increased body-count of the indigene.
To add to what has been said above the UPDF asked for a change in mandate. a door was left open towards preemptive strike at the al shabaab .
3rd paraghah
http://www.monitor.co.ug/OpEd/OpEdColumnists/BernardTabaire/-/878688/967694/-/fpt0fr/-/index.html
@ SPIDERman – must have been US choppers over Marka. The denial means nothing. Look how they say it “both AFRICOM and SOCAFRICA denied”. What about USSOCOM, for instance?
There has been heavy whispers for months now of a Private Naval Interdiction Outfit being put together by Commercial Interests whose usage of the Red Sea is vital to them, and others with greedy eyes on Somalia, and just today it is confirmed that indeed some unknown commercial interests working under grouping glibly referred to as “ Maritime Insurers”, have somehow convinced some Long Noses to grant them license to hunt and kill pirates along the Somali coastline and into the Indian Ocean. Complicates matters no ends for us, if this is the case, with a likelihood of magnetizing Radical Islamists reactions to this Outfit, with a real possibility of a spiraling of this Somalia mess out of control. Some of our chaps reckoned these two choppers were on a recon mission for this buccaneering outfit seeking sheltered seaboard for amphibious landings of their future operations. The swiftness that Voices were raised to deny culpability is indicative of the sensitivity of this Outfit’s existence at present. Little wonder the Old Man was so strigent in New York for increased UN engagement in resolution by any means of this Somali quagmire before this buccaneers gain free shot-to-kill license along our backyard.
and i can assure members of the blog they are more than whispers. Ongea na samaki ujue siri za bahari. risasi [probe your your maritime patrol squadron buddies they may have some interesting bedtime stories.
maybe its time for another “comprehensive peace agreement”, this time with a referendum option that includes “wind up and join kenya” 🙂
With all seriousness, Areba, this is probably where we all are herded anyway. And a free referendum would without doubt return just such a result. I have often stated that the eventual and gradual assimilation and Kenya-Collateralization of the Somali Diasphora, particularly that in Kenya will negate all tendencies of secession and kill all these trivial clan-debate-conflicts in Somalia. Perceptions will alter from the dynamics developing of their integration into a larger Geopolitical entity (Kenya-na??) as will growth priorities for the Somalias and others in this Block. But we need to keep the lid on this situation, with an occasional and inevitable venting of the seething pressures therein. The gang-ho adventurialism of M7 and the naked greed of these Maritime Insurers and their Capitalistic cannibals of Commerce, must be killed off before they push us all into a hell-hole from which all progress we have made will be buried for Decades to come.
wow, and to think i am dellusioned. anyway, just wondering, is this something that needs a socio political solution? or does one of us need to own a media house to do some psyops on kenyan and kwnya-na diaspora?
We cannot integrate any part of Somalia without drastically altering the demographics – the Achilles’ Heel – of our own country. “Joining Kenya,” therefore, is not an option before Kenyans begin truly identifying themselves as Kenyans rather than affiliates of an ethnic patchwork, else RV and PEV will be a walk in the park. Kenyana cannot be a unitary state, it can only be our sphere of influence, dependent on us and whose fealty we command. If we demonstrate our magnanimity and benevolence, the goodies will come to us.
@vitruvian, maybe its time the achilles heel was faced head on. I tend to think the situation is not as bad as it would have been before august 4th. and now that im thinkin, maybe winding up our neighbour might be a very good strategic move, both economicallya and politically.
My point. This Achilles’ Heel must be faced head on and vanquished first. In the mean time, we should focus on our own developmental priorities, consolidate our economy, reinforce our regional dominance and continue weaving this intricate web that will beget Pax Kenyana.
Winding up the Somali situation is, of course, advantageous but if we’re careless, miraa exports will be more-or-less it. There’s a variety of resources there that interest us. They interest others as well. Xe was on a recon mission to Somalia earlier this year. Hmmm. If we join a free-for-all melee, we’re going to lose. We want a bit more out of Somalia.
My view exactly, Vitruvian – you must be residing under my desk, mate!! But consider that we exists as a Nation-state from the imaginations of a Colonizer whose intentions were simplistically the endless domination and control of this Nation. The divergences along tribal and clan basis I clearly recognize as being founded in our pre-colonial relationships, but I must categorically also state that these were developed and extensively entrenched by the Colonizers as a tool for their domination and control of the varying tribal and clan groupings. It might be after all true what Literal Scholars have being saying for fifty years that we need to decolonize ourselves in all aspects to be truly free and this must include destroying even these vestiges of Colonial identification and diversionary classifications that artificially attributed specific traits and characteristics and further that entrenched these in each Grouping. Socio-politically, I consider the enactment of the New Constitution as a historic benchmark along this necessary direction. Now as to the dismantling of our fractious neighbor – it is not intended that assimilation be political in the same manner as the tribal-states were forced into the Nation-state Kenya. This Nation-state Kenya itself is fluidly evolving within the dynamics that are developing of the Socio-economic expansion riding on regional integration, to the extent that these artificial classifications developed by the Colonizers from what were essentially our culturally different traits, are losing relevance and value in the greater Demographic Field that is gradually resulting. And so too the Somalia Diaspora in Kenya that is gradually being culturalized and imbued with the uniqueness of this mix that has resulted from our Nation-state experiment. And too the Kenya-collateralization of the Somali Diaspora from their increasingly deepened engagement in the socio-economic activities of Nation-state Kenya – essentially the same driving force for the on-going regional integration. Pole for being long in the tooth!!
Guys, this is Nairobipundit again, the admin of nipate.com
I want to take time to address various issues that have been mentioned here regarding nipate.com.
First, I appreciate the contribution of you guys-you have contributed immensely to the growth of nipate.com.
First is the issue of security. Security is indeed very important. I am a computer scientist with a masters degree and I understand it best. However, the reality of the matter is that the current wordpress site is even worse off in security than nipate since this is just an account. Worse, it can deactivated any time unlike nipate where I purchased hosting for many years.on IP logging, this is automatic and is performed everywhere including here.All webservers do logs.
Also, if some people are monitoring some posts, they will also monitor here. Infact, at this wordpress, you have NO option to delete or edit any information once published so, if you put some potentialy sensitive info…there is no reverse gear, while on nipate.com you can delete or edit..
Areba has some issues with phpbb. however, this is just an opensource platform and I modify it to suit our purpose.
So, guys…my aim in migrating to phpbb and nipate was to have a good platform to express views since the current one is no longer viable and is a blog in itself.
For the community to grow(and it is growing) you guys must throw in posts. I have thrown in a number of posts.
Otherwise, I understand that the human being doesnt like change. However, let us embrace change for progress.
It looks like you got some word misplaced on your 3rd paragraph or you have shot your foot.Which web can you promptly deactivate nipate or the wordpress?
When I read in between the lines,it looks like you administrate or own both the Nairobi chronicles and nipate. Am I correct?
Thirdly it is not a matter of persons monitoring our contributions, but a matter of dealing with sensitive info. that could be posted by both friendly and foe members At one time.
Hello Risasi,
I appreciate your response.
On the 3rd paragraph, I meant that our current nairobichronicle website(which is a wordpress site) can simply be deactivated by wordpress themselves without questions since wordpress own it. however, nipate cannot simply be shut unless by a US court order (hosted in Illinois,US) .
Yes..indeed some of the info can be sensitive and although it is available both at this wordpress and nipate.com, you have the option to delete it among other options on the new platform.
Let me know if you have any more question
Thanks
admin
@nairobipundit,
Good to know that you are addressing the concerns raised.
After a few teething set up problems we all expect things to be better. Indeed we are witnessing some growth there.
Nevertheless, Nairobipundit, and I intend no insult to anyone, judging from the movement in Nipate.com of recent days, it would seem you may be encouraging migration to this site for the sake of numbers. Are we to degenerate into some gossipy site after all? I was attracted by the possibility of substantive discourse on particularly specialist- matters in the Socio-Economic, Military & Intelligence fields of concern and interest to Kenyans everywhere, that was established well in the Chronicles, but also kinda limited by the existing threads / posts in it. We have had some interesting and informative exchanges lasting over a year on this Site. I am not certain at this juncture that the Nipate.com is headed that direction. But that is just my view, and the world is free in the most part, buddy! As for the expressed concerns on the Security or lack of it in both these sites, no one site is fully secure, and we all can accept that some degree of dangers of being compromise or blown or turned exists when one posts anything on-line. A lot of chaps I know have opened divergent electronic I.D trails using different “legends” to throw off possible pursuits. But there are never iron-clad guarantees at all – anyone wants to find you they will, trust me. We all have different motivations for our contributing to these sites, some individual, some corporate; some benign desires to inform, others deliberate intentions to dis-inform. These are acceptable risks, I dare say. But to engage in careless gossip about grave issues, some seemingly expressed to peddle political biases and opinions, I think, is not for me nor for a whole lot of chaps. As you moderate this Site, it might be instructive to gently nudge it away from idle on-line patters to serious topical, specialist-type discourse to continue to attract substantive quality from the deep knowledge pool of Kenyans all over. Just my view, Buddy!
@nairobipundit,
do you own or adminstrare both sites
I think the answer is a definite “YES”
Yes Risasi…
Do not take offense, Nairobipundit, as none was intended nor was any given. And no, it was not a vote of protest but a simple withdrawal. Like I said, you have a fine site there but it’s not for me. Please respect my decision. I am still with you here at the Chronicle.
I do not seek exclusivity. As you say, I may have entered the wrong forum. But if anything tipped the scales for me it was the fact that the posts under that particular topic were reeking of bigotry. I wish not to contribute or support in any way any forum heading in that direction. That is all.
OK Vitruvian.
Thanks for your time and contribution.
To my friends and fellow respected blogggers here on this blogg and others
please see the new temporary refuge i have created for us here..i kindly invite you for your views and lets grow together
http://easternafricafiles.blogspot.com/
regards
SPIDERman
Spiderman, how does one get an invitation to this blog? I cannot sign in. Thanks.
@nairobipunduit
This exactly what I has telling you. You should have seeked an audience with the blog members and introduced your web site way back then. A simple and polite gesture would have meant a lot and boosted the members confidence in your work.
I actually know a thing or two about the website. For the last 1 month after the chronicles members visited your site , you achieved a toll of 2 million views per month.
Administrative:
Webhostingpad.com
DNS Admin
5005 Newport Dr
Rolling Meadows, IL 60008 US
+1.8473429199
Technical:
Webhostingpad.com
DNS Admin
5005 Newport Dr
Rolling Meadows, IL 60008 US
+1.8473429199
Nameserver:
NS1.WEBHOSTINGPAD.COM
NS2.WEBHOSTINGPAD.COM
Updated-Date:
Apr 21, 2010 04:14:46 AM
Created-Date:
Apr 21, 2009 05:22:26 AM
Registration-Expiration-Date:
Apr 21, 2011 05:22:26 AM
Status:
registrar-lock
Domain:
nipate.com
NIPATE.COM SITE INFORMATION
IP: 69.65.10.232
IP Location: Oak Brook, United States
Website Status: active
Server Type: Apache
Alexa Trend/Rank: 1 Month: 2,062,722 3 Month: 3,682,486
Page Views per Visit: 1 Month: 2.0 3 Month: 1.7
Registrant:
DNS Admin
3655 Torrance Blvd
Torrance, CA 90503 US
+1.3103162744
Fax 1.11
Enkai- ai!! Bloody sieve, these sites!!
Hi Risasi,
Thanks for the information.
Yes, I am aware of the WHOIS info and stats of course.Thanks for the interest and inquest.
YES, I invited interested guys here to join and explained specifically why we need a forum with a bulletin board platform for stimulating conversation instead of a blog.
thanks
I think we are all doing this the wrong way. Isnt there a community big enough here to sit through, brainstorm and come up with one website without divergent offshoots? i believe that a lot will be watered down if, taking advantage of the stalemate with regard to migration to nipate.com, guys decided to spin offshoots left right and center. I therefore have a proposal.
Lets appoint a small group (max four) to act as the voice of reason representing whats good about this forum to sit down and deliberate and chart a future for the group.
my 2cnts tells me with a little sanity and order, we can approach the elephant in the house with a united front.
au ?
Nairobipundit has a life to live and a business to run. We cannot ask him to take a fall in order to suit our needs. That would not be fair. The departure of a few bloggers will not affect nipate and he knows it. With 2m hits a month, nipate is now on a roll, thanks to the Chroniclers, and membership is swelling.
What is it exactly that we’re trying to salvage here? A forum/blog is in fact the sum of those posting and participating, regardless of the website. Except for the host, for whom it is a business.
So I agree with Areba if what he means is to find a new site on which the quality of our discussions will not be watered down. Spiderman seems to have done just such a thing.
@virtuvian, 2 million is much much on the higher side. 🙂 the actual figure is about 273 daily page views, which makes for even less visitors unless each visitor sees one page only.
anyway, all this is debate meant to be constructive by the way, hope no one takes it any other way. if we all agree to disagree, some of us will continue posting on this blog, some will move to nipate, some with more energy will hangle both and eventually, it will all settle. unless of course plans are in place to close this blog.
@ all valued and interested bloggers
am having some minor admin issues just setting up this trial blogg. just give me another 48 hours and i can revert back.i will probably need some help on basic set up
he he hehe.
ok hii mambo ni ngumu sana
i have made some changes so those who want to jaribu can try remember mine is just a clamsy attempt to provide a remedy to those upset chronicallers and others who are in the know
this is not the final thing
so i will appreciate any feed backs
Like Vitruvian, I too have chosen to disengage and wait see how nipate.com develops. Real good potential it has, this site. But…? Anyway, it can’t be said it was from a lack of effort or interest, though. Areba makes good point, which may just be worthy exploring and actualising.
@ole nkerai
@risasi
@mugwiiira
@tororo
@D
@aereba
@olekoima
@jasiri
@vitruvian..thanks i can see you have already sampled this eastern africa blogg
@all others i have not mentioned here…
i hope am not stepping on any ones toes by starting this thing and i hope you guys will come up with any ideas that you think will help us go through this uncertain face if i have annoyed any one my sincere apologies
please also note that i have not gone commercial and this blogg is purely not money making but just a hobby venture
so my friends while we wait to agree on something i have invited you you all to this new site am setting up to keep us going for the time being ..it nothing to worry about as am for now totally in control
am till in the process of refining it and hope it will cater for our needs and i welcome any ideas which can help and all suggestions will be acted upon once viable
i have posted three posts which i think can start as off and any person who registers can post
the best way of setting up an account is to have gmail account and this will enable you to register and log in quickly
so wellcome TO east africa chronicles
http://easternafricafiles.blogspot.com/
@spiderman ill be candid. No hard feelings….
If it aint broke, dont fix it. nairobichronicles.wordpress.com aint. its the future we are talking about, which means either nipate.com or some outfit that in our reasoning meets the collective (or at least most of the collective) desires. xxx.blogspot.com is no different from xxx.wordpress.com, which makes me wonder what the heck the point is.
as for stepping on people’s feet, you definately have. (Not mine though but im guessing whoever set up nairobichronicles.com wont be too happy). I still stand by my suggestion, lets do something that converges our ideas, not diverges them.
ill check your site and where it interests contribute sir.
my 2 cents.
@areba
yeah you are spot on.. i intend to review the situation within 90 days and take action depending on the status to pull the plug or just let things rumble on.
@Aerbe.
If it aint broke, dont fix it….. xxx.blogspot.com or xxx.wordpress.com …
we are not brainstorming how to host websites or which scripts are appropriate or not. which collective desire are referring to in your posting?
FYI the ball of contention is on how the admin handles and manages the site with regards to the member’s opinions. the admin has to gear up to expected standards if he wants the migration, its as simple as that. wash your hands man before eating and familiarize with the goings. criticize and give solutions as a responsible intellect.
Thanks spider for the time and effort on setting up http://www.easternafricafiles.blogspot.com can. Friends the site can be used as a convergence point if the admin decides to pull the plug off the chronicles. Note it down. Thanks spider.
Ladies and gents,
Just a humble request.
Two guys have yesterday and today posted nipate.com what should be sort of a personal message that should have been sent to me through the boards messaging facility and NOT something to be posted to the public as it paints a negative picture. They were expressing there dissatisfaction over what appears to be new members who have registered on the site or the content being discussed. All are in line with the policy of the community(unless it is obscene or hateful material) since the aim is to build a place for exchange of ideas and interaction.
anyway, the bottom line is that you can contact me personally if you feel that your message may not be suitable for the public domain.It doesn’t help anything posting a message that puts me in bad light. I am very reasonable and will address your concerns.
Cheers guys.
admin.
hi guys
i have noticed a single rottery bird patrolling kenya coast line but i couldn’t make out clearly which chopper it is,it bears some resemblance to wz-9 for kenyan military.
there are two foreign naval ships at the port of mombasa,may be it may have come from one of thise frigates.
anyone with i dea?
@chinnok
wellcome back
could one of those ships at the mombasa port be the USS GONZALEZ?
if so this an air warfare class of ships and has an impressive array of choppers.
THE ship last visited the port in july this year and maybe it has come back for resupply
@Spiderman
Kuna mambo mabaya hapo EA Chronicles. I cannot log in or post. I’m thinking it’s an admin thing because I’ve tried almost everything
Chinook, it could be from a NATO warship. Americans use the SH-60 seahawk for their naval ops. only their coastguards use the Dauphin, original version of the Z-9 with striking resemblance. Most of the time if the warship is in port for long, the chopper is flown to F.O.B moi airport. however i think this could be the z-9 as we’ve been seeing a lot of these latelly in Mtongwe.
One wonders how this ranking system works with Uganda and Egypt well on their way towards creating familial dynastic republics and Kenya having promulgated one of the most progressive constitutions on the continent.
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Kenya%20in%20decline%20on%20governance%20rating/-/1056/1025808/-/qe2i0o/-/index.html
just a quick one on all the hulabaloo about SS. is there cause for panic as the referendum date beacons? does anyone have any credible intel on the real situation of this thing from mister bashir’s side?
@Areba.
If it aint broke, dont fix it….. xxx.blogspot.com or xxx.wordpress.com …
we are not brainstorming how to host websites or which scripts are appropriate or not. which collective desire are referring to in your posting?
FYI the ball of contention is on how the admin handles and manages the site with regards to the member’s opinions. the admin has to gear up to expected standards if he wants the migration, its as simple as that. wash your hands man before eating and familiarize with the goings. criticize and give solutions as a responsible intellect.
Thanks spider for the time and effort on setting up http://www.easternafricafiles.blogspot.com can. Friends the site can be used as a convergence point if the admin decides to pull the plug off the chronicles. Note it down. Thanks spider.
@risasi…
The pulling the plug possibility has not been mentioned and much as it was on everyone’s mind, dont you think a collective process would make more sense than just creating an offshoot with the very likely scenario of fist fights with the admin (who for all intents and purposes is the only person with all the contacts here.
as for a .blogspot sub domain, its viability and lifespan is pretty limited if you ask me. Beyond here, i sit back and watch, talk when talked to and ask when its something other than this altenative websites maneno.
Without a strategic direction, remaining here is the best option… untill the plug gets pulled that is. 🙂 if we need something for the long term (for spreading (dis)information, the thing to do is first stop digging and think of where we will get a rope. Who’s with me?
you wrong on blogspot .iam working full to make it a viable alternate views site.
am monitering traffic and i can see where it is coming from.
and so far iam very encouraged.
most visits are from the USA,uk,and sudan.there are less than 20 visits from kenya… which is surprising.
So, Sudan is monitoring, he he.
@Collins Areba,
If you jog through your mind do you find any invitations for your contributions?
On October 1, 2010 at 11:20 am spider posted his troubles with his new site, two minute latter you post a feeling of joy and “he he he ” at Spiders problems in establishing his blog. You know so much yet you pop up a week ago. songeza upuzi yake mahali nyengine ndugu.
You looked to be so website literate as the admin is. What a coincidence.I have this gut feeling that you are the admin trying to masquerade as a blogger. . You are sure that the plug wouldn,t be pulled mmmh??? anyway that’s just my hunch. keep it up
@spider
right behind you spider. For a man of your line of duty to what you have set up it’s a plus man. Don,t worry about pessimists its part of the society. make sure we can post pictures too. i have enough to keep the Kiln turning. don,t worry mate, a bullet moves at a speed of sound when triggered. I suggest you move in a forum design. Below are my contributions.
http://www.google.com/search?q=free+forums&rls=com.microsoft:en-us:IE-SearchBox&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sourceid=ie7&rlz=1I7ADRA_en
P/S
keep it low on information details about the traffic. it might scar them away.
@risasi.
Amicable man, AMICABLE. differ with someone instead of making it personal. I like keeping my comments straight to the point. I raised issues that in my world make for a successful project; planning, planning, planning. Whats Soo wrong with that?
check and recheck before pulling the trigger man, friendly fire does not kill any less than enemy fire.
ps:
I am not admin, i commend him for starting the chronicles, i suggested that he does what i suggested to @spiderman, plan, involve the “stake holders” and pull together. Look who’s getting confused now…
I wish to thank those of you who are making an effort to set up new sites so that we can continue to share our thoughts in the various fora. Kudos SPIDERman and nairobipundit for all your tireless efforts. However, i’ am now totally confused and do not know exactly where to post my thoughts. I’ am therefore taking leave to reflect and make up my mind. Will be back shortly though.
All the best everyone and let’s continue our lively debates in whatever forum. Till then, cheers and bye for now.
I have gained good knowledge from this forum and as the grounds seem little shaky, i just hope that we won’t loose the momentum and quality contributions.
i don’t post a lot but i hope to do so soon. i therefore would like to encourage Spiderman as he sets his blog. nipate is a good platform though very general and spread which might result to fictious discussions. however, the admin has his goals in place which sometimes will self sieve it’s contributors.
cheers all.
@ spider where can i post the pic,s tuanze shuhuli zetu
@Risasi
my apologies for not responding sooner
i have been in meetings whole day.
OK..if you want to upload images or pictures on blogger just sign into blogger using the details you have provided if you have an account but if you have no account use the open function as though you want to post a comment as normal like any other open forum
in the post or comment section you will see above this box various icons that allow you to edit ,spell check or align etc..HERE LOOK for the post image button and click. this will open up another box and follow the instructions to upload thereafter and post whatever you want
remember i have no access to any of your personall or log in details. I CAN ONLY EDIT OR REMOVE YOUR POSTS IF THEY OFFENSIVE IN NATURE…and only as a last resort.
for further instructions just read the attached link
http://www.google.com/support/blogger/bin/answer.py?hl=en&answer=41641
@Risasi
a simpler explanation is that you click on the” NEW POST “tag then this will bring you onto a n open comments box.above this box there are various icons…just hover your cursor on each icon for a brief description until you find the one for uploading pictures or images…ago go ahead…and follow the on screen instructions….
@everyone, at least when everything is being ironed out, let the debate continue. Onto the claims about jitters around top security brass over jan08. Any chance the fears allayed will pan out? are we going to see some top dogs frying?
SPIDERman, i am having problems navigating through our new site. it gives confidence that the site was set up by you but the navigation inashida.
Its unfortunate that a great informative forum is on its death bed.I like hundreds of others have been following quietly.. Guys…why dont we use the nipate forum…now this attempt to create the eastafricanfiles has made members lose interest due to its poor design and limitation..I liked the regional issues on nipate….Guys…please do something
I am finding it strange that all the time the chronicles was active there were allegedly some so called “quiet” or “silent” followers who found it un necesary to contribute to the varius topics and discussions.
NOw that we are trying to find remedy the same silent followers are now asking us to go to nipate ? COME of it guys who do you think you are kiddng?
Nipate is a gossip feast, ” arm-chair: Analysts in the diaspora dishing their wise commentaries about happenings afflicting the homeland indigenes. In my view, it is definitely not the Chronicle’s Phoenix – there will be no resurrection of this Blog, Mr. ” F” if it dies! And what a bloody wasteful effort! I reckon we should give the ” Web-spinner” opportunity and support to develop the eastafricanfiles which will probably appeal to a whole lot of chaps currently in virtual limbo here – every dog has it’s poison, not so, eh?
In the interest of ending this debate, i have published an opinion poll on this matter with the options:
1: Remain here.
2: Move to nipate.
3: Move to eastafrica chronicles.
and
4: set up some working team to review and come up with something inclusive.
If interested in checking the poll,
http://www.formstack.com/forms/?1012656-8bbUVJDxmb
ill publish the results to anyone that has polled.
Pushy, Areba. I’m beginning to wonder whether Risasi doesn’t have a point after all. Allow things to evolve and mature. Allow people to make their own choice, move at their own pace, in their own time. It is patently clear that nipate.com is not an option. You could not have missed that point.
@blog
Hello Guys
I see the blog is still charting its way forward
Bwana the admin
Blocked my ip frm accessing the site due to my sentiments
I don’t think I have posted any
Thing profane during my time here.
masked my. Ip ad to post this msg
I am not going to tolerate such silly behaviour its his site and he can do as he wishes I offically signing
Out
thanks for yor time and company
Wish you the best Mr admin
PS
For the silent
Blogger u can still follow the blog in silent where ever it goes what’s the problem
Hey Risasi,
why are you making wild claims in order to get sympathy. You should stop these dirty tricks. Nobodies IP has ever been blocked.
Thanks.
Now, wait just one minute, Jordan!! I cannot credit this to you, buddy, blocking Risasi’s access simply because he expresses sentiments that a lot of us share, that might not be pleasant to you. Surely we are not intended by God or anybody else to be identical in our thinking, for heaven’s sake! And isn’t divergence of Opinion the basis of intellectual development? If indeed Risasi is now canned by the Admin, I too will fall out, as I am certain will too a lot of your faithful contributors who never saw this blog to be a social site for useless banter and blithely gossipy exchanges. Even in deadly combat there are rules that apply to all belligerents, of course that is not to include AQ and its derivations. This Site was matured, and its readership defined, as well as the content of discourse – there are suggestions that I am certain a lot of chaps could make, if you allowed them to, that would further deepen the discourse, and attract like-minded contributors from far afield. I really cannot see how suppressing this Site will result in a lateral movement of hits in your other Site Nipate.com, at least not from the known content of your contributors here who have indeed already determined one way or the other which home suits them. I urge you to rethink this strategy you seem to be applying to stringent discontent with your leadership – listen to the ranks, man!!
New Constitution / frontiers beckon on Civilian Need-to-Know of Military & Intelligence Activities – let’s walk this unfamiliar path, Civilians and Uniformed together.
This is a grey area that I am afraid we must bravely explore together, the Civilians and the Uniformed. Because it is not historically our fashion of doing business in the Armed Forces. Our paradigm is borrowed from the British and their hysterically obsessive preoccupation with Secrecy emanating from the two World War experiences – their better Integrity and Security of their Military & Intelligence Planning finally overwhelmed the Axis Forces of Hilter & Mussolini. But CHIP over at the Eastafricanfiles is damn right that there is a need adjust to the changing times, probably push out the envelope of secrecy to allow for some sort of discourse with Civilians on the intentions & actions of the Military & Intelligence. We are all very conscious of this imperative, a bit frightened by it too if you allow me to be blunt; there are efforts at the Centre to redefine and develop some sort of guideline / framework. Bits and pieces of queries /ideas thrown about, that I personally know of, some think-tanking in the Command Structure and Officer-Schools too. I invite other Uniforms to contribute to this discussion, and string along with tit-bits which I am certain competent chaps like CHIP can put together and generate some clarity to this – as we all await guidelines from Big Brother kDoD. In the interim, allow me to state for the umpteenth time that the brashful arrogant posturing of M7, akin to that of the School Bully, attract all manner of insidious thugs with intentions to testing themselves against the bully – see who pees further, if you want. It is the reason that M7 has been a consistent conflict with virtually everyone in this neighborhood for the past twenty years, and is what defines his leadership and his presidency. He thrives on this senseless empty bravado. Thus far, the victims of M7’s adventurism have been hapless societies and weakened governments, until he stuck his big foot in with AQ in Somalia. Now he needs to be refitted with Military Hardware, Offensive Systems and Equipment, financed to make a honorable disengagement from Somalia; hence his coddling up to the EU/USA playing on their fears that this monster they created will bite them in the backside unless stopped cold– they are engaged in two wars against the Islam and will not start another direct war with Islam in Somalia. He is so shamelessly conniving that he is ratcheting up rhetoric /tension with the Sudan using the same blatantly manipulative modus operadus. But despite spending USD340Million on Defense (albeit disproportionately not in Offensive Systems & Equipment Acquisition t) in 2009 / 3.5% of Uganda’s GDP, he is gravely inadequately prepared to engage Sudan (USD1,970 Million and 4.4% of GDP same period – mostly on Offensive Systems & Equipment Acquisition & Refitting of existing Ordnances). Our historical attitude is to quietly & decisively preparations both offensively & Defensively (USD680Million 2009 / 1.9 of GDP). We have a effectively thoroughly implanted and further developed a strategy of Defensive-Offense-to-Depth used effectively down south in the early eighties. We shall keep chatting, buddy?
Hey Risasi,
This is crazy.why are you making wild claims in order to get sympathy. You should stop these dirty tricks. Nobodies IP has ever been blocked.
Thanks.
Ole nkarai -some thing to piss you off even more. this was something I was aready aware of and confirmed but had to keep under raps. The UPDF has more than double the Number of troops (5000) that is officially claimed to be in somalia and they have been the cause of the intensified fighting in the last few weeks.All these developments the US is aware of but the official stand here is we don’t condone the escalation of conflict in somalia. M7 is supposed to show improvement with the available “5000” troops on the ground before he gets the additional facilitation that he wants. but looks like some drunk in Kla spilled the beans about the increased number in somalia
http://www.redpepper.co.ug/index.php/component/content/article/67-headlines/175-m7-pours-10000-troops.html
but its amazing how anybody could ever think that M7 will abide by what the A.U agreed to not to have more troops sent to Somalia. this is the same person who ignored the UN on congo includeing the $10 billion fine Assesed ICJ in 2005 for plundering Congo. The story that has been going on in the Press here is of how the US is not intrested in getting in somalia but just training Somali troops in UG and then the accompanying pictures of would be Somalis being trained would be clearly Ugandans atleast for people who can tell the difference. but this is something the public here needs to see atleast to justify spending tax payers money in somalia. but I knew from the get-go that the AU were wasting their time not giving M7 the mandate he wanted, as long as Washigton gives its ok the rest don’t matter. Now lets just watch and see the out come of the sudanese referendum – the bulldog has given his views on it mean while Bashir is being blackmailed by the ICC
Hey Tororo, tis been awhile, and glad you are back on. Your post on an argumented deployment in Mogadishu by M7 is intriguing as much as the source for what really would be classified information. Not to belaboured too greatly the suitability and reputation of this newspaper, and despite the penchant of M7 to go diametrically off-tangent and initiate unilateral action, I tell you that such a build up of what he has in the Mogadishu is so dramatic, so radical, so threateningly diametrically off-tangent as to have set off all manner of warning sirens from all manner of interest-groups not least a variety of Military and Intelligence Units in Kenya. There has been none at all, and I would know. Moreover, that rag-newspaper describes a deployment that encircles Kenya, of Armed Elements drawn from every other Nation except Kenya, moving in force into what is essentially our backyard, a Nation we have carried both the good and the bad for nearly twenty years and which shares a large demographic similarities and history with Kenya. Now, you do not need to be a student of Military Science to see what this portends, nor how ridiculous such a scenario is as presented by Red Pepper. M7 has no capacity of moving a body of 2000 Armed Men with all their Kit and Equipment a distance of a thousand Kilometers across international borders without Kenya knowing of it. And moving tanks from Kampala to Mombasa so surreptitiously as to escape attention by even those villages in Kibera – let alone Kenya’s Military and Civilian Intelligence and a host of other hostile eyes placed in Kenya by AQ precisely for this purpose, is just to fantastic a claim to make as to be utterly ludicrous. The aggravation of the conflict in Mogadishu has little to do with the activities of the UPDF, in fact it has everything to do with the INACTIVITY of the UPDF which has bogged completely down mired in leadership and equipment deficiencies – they are not operating under cover, unseen and invisible, we have covert insertion terms on Recon and Intel deployment right under their cooking billets!! The Americans will not move into any part of this region without Kenya’s direct and unequivocal support, and will not risk action that will destabilize this Fulcrum of this entire region – Kenya’s Health or the lack of it. Esentially, as M7 “plays” the EU / US, they too are playing him. The net result of his perfidious boisterous adventurism is that the Sudan now risks unraveling and the carefully knitted tapestry of the Separation of GoSS appears threatened – see the noises coming from Khartoum in consequence to all this brinkmanship being perpetuated by the US using the likes of M7?
Ole nkarai – the troop movement is something I have been aware of for the last one month and it was done in the most easiest way – troop rotation – bring 600 who are supposed to be 1000 and take back 1000. and thats how the numbers have been increaseing. this infor I got from KLA from a trusted sourse and not Redpepper (of course I cld not come here and let everyone know about this because it is totally unethical in this kind of work – untill red pepper published it and if they have that means alot more people have this information now) what surprised me in this article is the heavy hardware movement and if it was indeed moving through kenya then kenyan authorities are aware of the secreat build up. what is for certain and like I told you most departments here now is that the Ugandans have been increasing there numbers in Somalia. there is no way the somaila goverment could have pushed alshabab to the out strikes of mogadishu just like that with no increased activity.
By the way that resent vist by the UN and EU military high comand is just a cover up of whats going on
hello guys
My name is Andre. I was contacted by Maj O’ neal of the Combat Aviation Brigade, Texas Army National Guard (ARNG). He is a pal of an a.k.a Risasi from africa. The alias expressed interest in opening a professional discussion website. The Maj contact me for the favor and I will do it. web building is my hobby and part time job. O’neal and I served in Iraq. i left the force as Private First Class (PFC), information logistics and now work in an airport. like a said I.T is part of me.
I went around this website got the feel of what guys might need. The discussion here has a niche on east Africa matters and east African issue. I will setup a site of similar nature and we will expound future.
Africa is a nice continent and i hope to come for a safari in the future. Basically what I will do is build the site , host it and maintain it. I will not engage in your politics or pick sides in your debates. 1. I am a professional 2. I can’t make head or tail on them 3. I respect your privacies 4. I have pending jobs and lots of site to manage. All privilege information will be held secured. the site will have a provision deleting cookies by all members. This will erase your “finger or foot prints” after you leave.
I will post the name new discussion forum in a few days . watch this space
Andre.
Wow! surprisingly wide readership! Andre do your thing and we will see if we like it, then we’ll move as a unit. one thing you should note is that while our views may be different, we all have a unity of purpose here. If we may prefer your site over others, avoid the bottlenecks that made us loose interest in Chronicles.
Hey Andre – mind if I ask around at the ARNG about this O’Neal chap? Men, I will get some of our spooky friends to kinda look him over, and this site too, see what’s cooking – smells too good but like Jasiri,I too reckon this could be “it” for us, guys. Shoot, Andre, we are waiting. Set up and let’s see.
Fellas and @SIDERman in particular,
because of the issues surrounding nipate.com/Nairobi Chronicle, I also started creating a blog that would accommodate those of us at the Chronicle with a more serious and intellectual outlook. However, SPIDERman beat me to it and his blog took off before mine. Because I was still fine-tuning it the blog (and still am), I did not advertise/send invitations. So far, I have only written 2 posts + an introduction. It was my intention to attract the EA geopolitical discussions from the Chronicle but I am also looking to broaden the discussions to other topics on Kenya/EA and Africa in general. I think we share a common interest, i.e., to create a blog where we can exchange information and, as SPIDERman says, sharpen our minds.
So, what do you think about combining our efforts? This thing has taken up a lot of my time and effort, I imagine it is the same with SPIDERman. Expanding posting (not only commenting) rights to the Chroniclers (and others) who might wish to post new topics would take the load off having to post daily and provide a more inclusive atmosphere. The exclusion of Risasi from the Chronicle is still fresh in everyone’s mind.
If you’re interested, just follow the link below and tell me what you think (any issues can be discussed/agreed). Same goes for anyone else reading this. If not, no problem, let’s just continue enlightening each other and exchanging views as we have been doing so far.
You can drop your comments under “Karibuni” or any other post.
There’s a few proposals on the table now. One will surely succeed.
Vitruvian a.k.a. Planet Africana.
http://planetafricana.blogspot.com/
Okay HALT!!! This blog creating business is getting out of hand. let’s all agree on who’s to create a blog and we give maximum support. at least 4 members have blogs up and running. i do not mean to belittle your effort but how is Jasiri supposed to divide his time between so many blogs? hebu tuonge tuelewane.
This was my point. Let’s pool our efforts and focus on one blog. We all seem to be desperate to keep this quality discussion going, hence the efforts by so many to create a suitable blog. I am not promoting my own, though after all the effort I hope to keep it running. If it complements whatever blog/forum we choose with alternative intellectual discussions, that’s fine with me.
It is not my intention to compete with Spiderman or anyone else and this is not a business for me. That is why I suggested we pool our efforts (I have actually been trying to deliver this message to Spiderman’s for a number of days, but for some reason I am unable to post comments on his blog). For the moment, I have skipped the option of placing adds on the site in order to make the whole thing more user- and reader-friendly.
I also believe in inclusive participation, i.e., the core bloggers should have the option of manipulating the site, or if that is not technically possible, of having a say on the various aspects, particularly moderation and posting new topics independently of admin. An “editorial board” comprising individuals we choose might play that role.
Let’s do something, folks, to maintain the momentum!
thats all i was attempting to do sir! still trying to understand how that is pushy.
the link again just in case….
http://www.formstack.com/forms/?1012656-8bbUVJDxmb
I hope you guys now find the wisdom in my words in the previous posts in spite of adverse personal attacks. while it makes sense to turn over a new leaf, it makes sense to do so in agreement, which is why i put up the opinion poll to at least rally guys to a decision and move as a bloc. more importantly however was the fact that with the poll we have an opportunity to bulk a contact list of the core participants.
@Areba, in that case I apologise. I had linked you to admin and believed that you were pushing his case for nipate.com. Pole sana.
no biggie @Vitruvian, you do realize all one needs to do is call himself anything and post a comment and none will be any wiser.
One thing i can guarantee though, without the mix that is @risasi, @jasiri, @vitruvian, @tororo, @Ole Nkarei and the countless souls that make the contributions to this blog what they are, anything else wont sound or feel the same. which is why for me, more important than a flashy new look / design is the need unity of purpose.
That said, my personal feelings are that there is adequate “local talent”. at the time a decision will be reached on way forward, many will be amazed at what can be created.
The purpose of all this effort is to continue blogging and to maintain the quality of the discourse. You are right, Areba, that it is the contributors who make the blog and so we must find a place for the contributors to continue doing so.
As for the flashy look, well, those are but optional extras. It is just a template, after all. One click and – Hey Presto! – there we are. But there is a point to the effort put into the blog (not a great deal of it, actually). If the design is user-friendly and inspirational, if it makes it easier to navigate the site, follow blogs, post comments, access information, etc….then it makes sense because it will boost the quality of the contributions. Inspiration brings out the best in us and and that is what we want. Beyond that, I am known to be uncompromising when it comes to thoroughness and quality. I cannot help it.
@vitruvian
am sorry you are unable to post at east africa files… i dont know why becaus i have not changed anything.THIS blog is open to all so posting should not be a problem.. but i will check again
@all my fellow blogers
i have been humbled by the support i have so far recieved from you guys
and thanks for that.
please let me make this clear..i had no intention of making a blogg to compete for space ..but i clearly stated that it was a temporary thing while we we work out our next move
that is my stand until we agree so
so let the minds come up with a solution meanwhile we can blog on here or nipate or east africa files or even the new planet africa blog.. ….BUT we need a solution ASAP
@vitruvian
am sorry you are unable to post at east africa files… i dont know why becaus i have not changed anything.THIS blog is open to all so posting should not be a problem.. but i will check again
@all my fellow blogers
i have been humbled by the support i have so far recieved from you guys
and thanks for that.
please let me make this clear..i had no intention of making a blogg to compete for space ..but i clearly stated that it was a temporary thing while we we work out our next move
that is my stand until we agree so
so let the minds come up with a solution meanwhile we can blog on here or nipate or east africa files or even the new planet africa blog.. ….BUT we need a solution ASAP…i must say i like the creativity shown by people here so far
@SPIDERman, perhaps the problem with posting is not on you site but in my browser. Cookies or something. I will check. I see that others have been able to post, so your site must be OK.
@Tororo
please dont believe that red pepper story that Uganda can move heavy military hardware through Kenya without any one even news media knowing.
KENYA HAS AN ELABORate SYSTEM OF information gathering in that area second to none.
i know it and was even part of it and even now i have indirect but non official links.
thats why in this red pepper concotion there is carefull avoidance not to mention anything Kenyan.
THERE is no way that you can move tanks from busia or namanga to mombasa then to somalia as if you are transpoting maize….forget it bwana there are hundreds of checkpoints and people on the move all the time..
BESIDES all the injured and dead UPDF soldiers are firstly brought to nairobi from somalia and my sources indicate nothing on the scale you are implying.
SO unless you become more convincing ..iam inclined to think this is just a story beating rounds kampala bars and joints ..fuelled by this red pepper gosip
i want to join military and i need help……………..email me on frdbancs@hotmail.com
where are you ?
@ Tororo – I fear the Red Pepper story is intentionally misleading. UPDF’s official contribution to AMISOM has gone up from 2700 to 3500 in September. They may have staged a short-term “surge” by shifting rotation schedules, but there’s no indication of that. In any case, AMISOM has an authorized strength of 8,000 troops, and to SECRETLY deploy in excess of that would be scandalous.
There is a way to bypass that, which is to sign a military assistance agreement with TFG, and send troops outside the AMISOM. However Sh-Sh Ahmed is too weak to do that without a verbatim approval from his foreign backers. I wouldn’t think either the US or the EU can approve such a move when even AMISOM is not at full strength.
I further see no sense in making any ‘covert’ deployments to avoid provocation because the Shabaab has thoroughly infiltrated the TFG, the seaport and the airport.)
Then, I remember how much of a strain it was for UPDF when the first 2700 troops were being deployed. 10000 in just 3 months.. they gotta be kidding me.
The “have their asses kicked out of Mogadishu” part is plain BS. The AMISOM area of control was indeed expanded in the Hodan district where the Shabaab and HI were occasionally fighting each other. This advance however was stopped, and these new bases are now semi-surrounded by the Shabbab and HI. If things don’t change, it will soon make more sense for AMISOM to abandon these positions rather than hold them. That would be a pretty lousy offensive for a 10000-strong contingent, wouldn’t it?
As for the “split” in the Shabaab – this looks more like a trivial quarrel, caused by Abu Zubeyr’s (Godane’s) intention to take full control over the movement’s finances. In the past, such things would not even be noticed by the media. It is furthermore weird that the “split” story made it to Reuters BEFORE it reached the Somali media. I may be mistaken (nobody really knows what’s going on inside the Shabaab), but it looks like the US/AMISOM psyops have entered a funny stage.
@
ole nkarei
@Risasi
@vitruvian
@mugwiira
@areba
@chinook
@olekoima
na wengine wote
and any other interested pundit or blogger…
please feel free to email me at spiderman.sspiderman@gmail.com
SO that i will or can send you links to enable you to post “posts”
AT eastafricanfiles blogspot.
Remember i will only have admin rights over what you post but will have no access to any personal information
The links i will send will enable writing,editing and posting of your own posts only while i can override this in the interests of removing any posts that are found and deemed to be inaproppriate or not compatible with members views.
Posts advertising viagra or penis enlargement technics are in this group that i will veto without mercy..those who want those kind of services can go elsewhere..HE HE
MEANWHILE members are encouraged to quickly resolve this impasse of bloging sites before every ones creates theirown blog and agree if we migrate to planet africa or create something else ETC ETC ETC or continue here with all the IMPENDING limitations.
Nipate com seems not appropriate as it has exploded into a wild speculative junkie site with all sorts of streams going on .. WHERE EVEN THOUGH SOME ARE very good the vast majority are difficult to follow unless you are a news junkie .
WE need a blog for bloging informative ideas and not what iam seeing at nipate.
@jasiri
wellcome as well i know you have owesome capabilities so i dont want you to be on my opposing side as i will have no place to hide..
so karibu sana…
Ladies and Gentlemen:
Social networking websites as the name suggest, are places to intermingle with others.
Memberships and affiliations, should not bound you form participating in similar lucrative networks. Moving from one site to another requires a simple click of a button. Knowledge enhancement might compel you to affiliate yourselves with one or more sites. So don,t let affiliations be a stumbling block towards moving from site to site in search of knowledge .
social networks are places where like minds, discus, agree, agree to disagree, exchange opinions and learn form each other. i therefore take this opportunity to introduce the new forum as suggested by your friend. Feel free to visit and leave comments and suggestions. Winston Churchill once said “There is nothing wrong with change, if it is in the right direction.” See the site and make your decision.
the Forum has been constructed in the Latest PHP scripts.
This poses the following facilities: Polling , voting, Real time discussions, chats, Emailing facilities, announcements posting among many. Lets enjoy life.
I am not sure how the script will respond to the internet servers back in Africa. Therefore kindly leave your comments and findings on the “comments & suggestions” section. If need been I will reconstruct it with a low version script in order to suit your environment.
Once affirmed I will continue in the second phase; creating topics recommended by your friend risasi . some of these topics involve military issues. Professionalism is therefore called upon i will post information on how the C.I.A regards each military force at the moment. How the web swings and moves afterwards will be based on your inputs. Last but not least I would like to extend a welcoming hand to the existing Admin to join in managing the new site if he wishes to.
the new site has not yet been listed in googles or other search engines. Note it down or book mark it in your web browsers.
Ladies and Gentlemen:
http://eastafrican.userboard.net/
East Africa’s social networking forum.
I will leave you with the words of a Chinese philosophers and Mystic
K’ung Fu-tzu a.k.a Confucius
551 – 479 B.C.E.
Study the past if you would define the future.
@andre
thanks for your offer. i shall look at this but i must say here that your offer on CIA info on African militaries will at best not be accurate because CIA has never and will never look at the situations IN Africa objectively.
The CIA proceses informations only to suit a particular political purposes.
A good example is the middle east situation..who lied to the world so that Iraq can be invaded?what happened in congo in 1960s?
who was funding UNITA in angola etc?
hi, whats the status of the “working group”? any progress deciding where we are heading ?
had a poll sometimes back and collected a couple of email addresses, last resolution was to set up an email list to agree on some critical points. however without some critical voices in this forum i feel its premature to do so till we get their involvement. (otherwise we stay put)… @jasiri, @olekioma, @ole nkarei, @virtuvian…. mnajijua. get in touch at arebacollins@gmail.com and things will move on in a hurry. as for the rest… and i quote….
“Patience is waiting. Not passively waiting. That is laziness. But to keep going when the going is hard and slow – that is patience.”
@unknown-imous – just like water in a corked bottle, if you allow this to happen, we shall find balance eventually. It is still early times, I reckon, but after a time, the universe with it’s rigid structure resulted from the formless space afore. Just keep posting and pinging on whichever of the blogs that are taking shape, and contribute to their evolution. Try the Planetafricana.blogspot.com and the eastenafricanfiles. com for a start. Good hunting.
Now, Tororo recently posted reports of UPDF expansion of their expeditionary force in Mogadishu to 1O,OOO men. Citing reports in The Red Pepper Newspaper, claiming to be based on official government leeks, he proceeded to opine that these men and ties kit as well as heavy combat equipment transited through Kenya to Mogadishu by rail, sea and air. And all so surreptitiously done that it escapes the notice of Military and Civilian Intelligence and Media in Kenya. Not even the Kibera denizens get a whiff of this rail traffic! This is so utterly false as to be hideous. It would clearly indicate that I and a whole lot of People been asleep on the job!. We haven’t!! By whatever means, any such movement of a armed band of foreign soldiers would not escape attention, indeed we would know if it as the groups were being mustered in Kampala, and their kits being marshalled for trans-shipment! FROM CONCEPTION ON PAPER TO THEIR PHYSICAL MOVEMENT! There has been heavier than usual traffic of UPDF through Kenya in September and October, but it is a controlled rotation of their expeditionary elements and resupply of stores. Indeed M7 did send out feelers to GoK to allow covert build-up thro Kenya and was rebuffed and asked to take this suggestion through IGAD. That is what hit the rumour-mill in Kampala, peddled by UPDF’s Intelligence to give impression to their population that M7 ‘s arrogant posturing, following the kampala bombings, has substance. It hasn’t,
Finally the Mayani-trained TFG soldiers have deployed into Somalia. News of a decisive capture of Bulo Hawo on the Kenyan border from the Al-Shabaab, and a rapid domino collapse of the entire sector expected shortly. Uganda / EU compliment expected to go in soon pushing from Mogadishu West and South. Well!!
Col. what are the requirements for joining the 50th air cav? i want to enlist next year.
my brother you have to go thru the normal recruitment process for the kenyan armed forces then after going through your basic training you have to fullfill the requirements of joining the air cavalry through the KAFTEC training program..i think(kenya armed forces technical college)
am not sure but this was the trend years back
Jasiri, if you intend to go in “raw” , the process is as Spider indicates. And the circle is about complete for this year’s intake. If you are going in “specialist”, and these are wide and varied for the Air-Cav, you may need to indicate to me what is your spec-field, and it has to do with what the Air-Cav do – you know their tasking. Route then may take some diversion, legal but diversions nevertheless. Please give me a slight inkling here, simple wording. They will be lucky to have you aboard, for certain.
well col, my field of “speciality” is signals but to be honest i find it very boring coz i was programmed for field ops. i’m setting my sights on next years GSO intake but i’m a little bit nervous coz the chances of selection are slim judging by the sheer volume of applications.
thanks @ole nkerai
Tororo must learn to be aware that we do no jokes here..that red pepper rumor mill is working over time to ensure M7 appears to be invincible just before the oncoming elections.
THE kenyan manyani military and paramilitary training facility in the middle of tsavo national park where the somali expeditionary force was trained will be the savior for the UPDF in the long run….of course with covert inputs from here and there..YOU know what i mean?
if they survived in Manyani they ought to do the job. That place is harsh, scorching heat and inhospitable surroundings.
Finally the T.F.G is starting to act like a government. read this http://www.nation.co.ke/News/africa/Somalia%20offers%20reward%20on%20Al%20Shabaab%20operations/-/1066/1034702/-/14ga0yr/-/index.html
@ ole Nkarei – I understand what you mean by “domino”, Col. Marehan vs Marehan.. using warlords to pull clan support away from the Shabaab.
This is Somalia however, once a chain reaction has started, you never know how things will realign themselves. Ironically, Hiirale whose militia has captured Beled Hawo and is described as “TFG forces” is the same guy who supported the Shabaab with his ‘technicals’ when they fought with Ras Kamboni in Kismayo.
Moreover, if Kismayo falls, this will not be the end of the Shabaab. In fact, their opportunistic alliance with Marehan, while beneficial financially, has been detrimental from the standpoint of internal cohesion.
If Hiirale reaches Kismayo, he will be too busy fighting with the Harti/Ogadeni to put any further pressure in the Shabaab. His force is just big enough to harass Godane’s guys.
IMHO, this looks more like “save Private Mukasa” than “Shabaab Kaputt”..
Good one Mugwiira, saving private mukasa :-P. ultimatelly i feel that Kenya will have to get some boots on the ground in somalia, most probably covert S.A.S type ops. I don’t trust this Somalis to do the right thing because alliance in Somalia shift like the tides in the ocean.
Indeed you are spot-on Mugwiira, and the analogue of Saving Private Mutesa is outrageously correct!! Are you Analyst Local or International, by the way? Thing is to bring this Somali madness to a close, the Somali must own the problem and invest blood and sweat to close it. The mistake the Americans made were repeated by the Ethiopians a few years later, trying to enforce a peace that has little sell in Somalia itself. So, for Kenya, it is a two-prong strategy, assimilate substantial numbers and Somali economy, and create a fighting / armed critical mass to push the assimilation into Somalia. It has taken time, but this is essentially the strategy. You see the Demography of the NFD changing in the last ten years? The Census Results of last year? Somalia has acquired a Kenyanese about it that is unmistakable, which appears to have reached a critical mass as to directly influence events inside Somalia itself. It is for this reason that M7 aggravated mandate / adventurism in Somali are unpalatable to Kenya, and will be resisted by force of arms if need be. But typical of the Man, his attention is fickle and already we see him straying to other Sectors that are less complicated and easier to matriculate than Somali. Writing on the Wall.
Ok looks like am being misunderstood. if you read my post it says that I was aware of the developments that were going on but kept it to myslef but since the redpepper had published what I knew then it ment that anybody with intreast in this now knew everything. I was simply using redpepper to show that what I had known all along was now public knowledge but REDPEPPER WAS NOT MY SOURSE. though my line of work considers gossip an information sourse, I personally don’t like and thats why I always tripple cross check any information that I may get from such sourse. surely you can’t have someone work in my feild then relay on tabloids!? I haven’t been to the EA since Feb but I have always trusted my sourse to give me concrete infor because they know they benefit from getting me credable information.
@Tororo
If that is the case you are doing yourself a de service.IT appears your sources in this area have no clue on what is going on or are just deliberately feeding you garbage from the streets of Kampala.
You better take them to task to justify whatever it is that they benefit from you or better still get onto the ground yourself and look for information otherwise my friend you will end up on the recieving end..
Come to think of it my reliable sources tell me the US senior spookes are pushing for more us involvement in somalia …what is your take on this?
see my small brief on my blogg at east african files by using this link here
http://easternafricafiles.blogspot.com/
SPIDER, i have to commend you on the quality posts at your site. i started reading and i lost myself in there. well done man, seems your spook training is being utilised to post relevant posts, salute.
I co-sign on that. Cool blog SPIDERman. It’s officially on my blog roll.
Duly noted, brother Tororo. I know where you are coming from as I too face the same hurdles with Intel-vetting, and quite empathize with your sentiments. Rest easy.
@Jasiri
thanks for the compliment
we are here to learn without compromising our selves or the national interests.i have avoided to put meat on the bones for obvious reasons.
I do not seek to be the only one posting on my site that is why i have invited guys to become writers as well
only @areba has responded and i have posted him links to enable posting of posts.
more writers are well come as the set up allows for up 100 writers.
as i said on the outset mine was just a three month trial while we see how the chronicle opines and if the plug is pulled we have somewhere to regroup and strike back
IF anyone is having trouble using the link to post get in touch here and we can deal …
Spider belive me If I could be on the ground I would be. infact I have always wanted to be posted in EA even at an embassy but that would mean me switching jobs. foreign Intel is C.I.A area “officially”. but I would not take these people infor seriously if it was not cause in the end it would make me look stupid infront of my superiors. About increased US involvement Somalia, they have always wanted that to happen but the “official” stand is that no more new wars. at least for now proberblly untill after the mid term elections. the white house is “focusing” on the economy and jobs. after the elections and seeing what kind of damage has been done may be then people will get more asertive. They are people who have a serious “eye” for Iran and N. Korea infact if the President had the economy as in Clinton’s years, Iran would have been invaded by now and there would be also a visable involment in Somalia. for now they will go with giveing KLA and Adis instructions.
@ ole Nkarei – foreign but based locally; on my own private business..
In the meanwhile, the Shabaab are back in Beled Hawo, and gaining the upper hand. Only Ethiopian arty is preventing them from fully recapturing the town. Not what anyone expected.
These warlords of 1990’s fame have become a joke..
Ok, the Shabaab offensive repulsed with some serious casualties on their side.
I wonder however whether Hiirale expects that Ethiopian armor/arty will accompany him all the way to Kismayo..
I may seem to be paying too much attention to these events, but they are of large and immediate importance (as earlier pointed out by ole Nkarei).
Al-shaabaab is more smoke and thunder than not. typical of any bully that brutalizes large numbers of silent pliant persons. Al-shaabaab lacks sustaining numbers, and makes this up by terrorizing the population into subservient silence through extreme and de-humanizing measures that normal persons are not able to contemplate nor combat. It then exploits this population by building an economy in areas subjugated, and hence sustaining it’s high profile. When faced with an organized force with some means of extreme violence, even if not to the extent of Al-shaabaab, the numbers fizzle away, their hold on the population loosen, and a greater determined push dislodges the subservient population away from Al-shaabab’s control, as is happening now. Remember that Al-shaabaab’s hold on the Somali Population is not ideological nor it is religious – it is mindless terror and the fear of it/ If th e TFG sustain this aggressive contact in a growing vector, this demon will fizzle away into an annoyance. Real dance will start with the TFG component in training in UG by the EU actually deploys from Ethiopia and starts joint operations working towards Mogadishu.
Mugwiira, Mwister, Jasiri, Tororo, Risasi, Spidey,one-man-army, everybody, your insights in discussions in the Easternafricanfiles.blogspot,com and the Planetafricana.blogspot.com are awaiting eagerly and necessary. Please enlist.
Very true. But very similar to what was said/written about the Bolsheviks around 1919.. 😉 I’m therefore careful with my forecasts.
@ Mugwirra – you are right, and I am rightly reminded that hastiness is a dead soldier’s whisperer. Greatest tactical battle reversals in Military History can rightly be placed squarely at this doorstep. Of course I hope we have covered all bases, and projections realistically forward-played. However, I cannot fault you cautionary optimism on this matter. Latest reports indicate that there is a emerging coalescing of previously lukewarm / tepid groupings, armed and unarmed, in the Central to-South Sectors emboldened by the the long-expected Government offensive. If this is carefully husbanded, by all external players and by all means including the “bloody-and-unfair”, a real hemorrhaging AG strangle-hold on the passive and disillusioned population / clans is inevitable. Light at end of this tunnel, I should think. Probably the beginning of another long dark tunnel, as well.Damn!!
I have always had an avidly healthy dislike for the brand of “Journalism” that the Standard Group employs, and not withstanding assurances given by colleagues in the shadowy world that political ownership gravely pollutes the ideology and principle of this group. Indeed, during the PEV, if indeed any Media House was criminally culpable of generating in the mindset of Kenyans that the Violence resulting was justified by the notion that there was wholesale generalized fraud, and that the reactive forces could be differentiated by their political camps such that others were justified reactionaries while others were dastardly counter-reactionaries, it was the Standard Media Group!! Now, we are awoken at ungodly hours by civilian friends with this headlined nonsensical story of corrupted procurements in kDoD. Obviously I will be accused of falling into line to support Uniformed Positions, which is so utterly insulting an opinion. The truth will come out, eventually, but in the interim what the Standard Group has started is in diversionary smoke-trail away from the fall-out in the ODM between Odinga their project since before 2005 and their Protected Politician Ruto. In this coming days, they will flog this silly story for all it is worth, through their Print and Electronic Media, through the so-called “experts” call-in shows, “investigative Journalists” scoops, etc.. It is all a poor attempt at damage Control, to take away the thunder from the RV politicians that they are raining down on Odinga – watch as their fella conspirator-media houses take the cue and this Ruto Story falls into the sidelines as the week progresses. There is no way that one person no matter the rank can award any tender to purchase anything for the Military, not even a night of pleasure, and though I am not in this loop on Military Procument Planning, there is no way that Kenya would procure such a large amount of critically essential equipment from what is in effect our largest and most formidable economic and political nemesis in Africa. We need to turn away from these politicians’ circuses and get on with the business of running this Great Country, we must consign these professional politicians to a support-secondary role, and work on what we all know will propel us to the obvious pre-eminence in Africa. Or better still, if Ocampo does not relieve us of these thieving chaps, line them up on a wall in Stony Athi, and then you-know-what…
i expected you to fire the first salvo, and rightly so. other than get tired of watching “authoritative” news, there is a lot that is shallow. In my area of interest (which is basically energy , renewable alternatives and biofuels), they have had a lot to say about lots of things only to beat a hasty retreat when confronted with reality.
Actually, i am yet to see a news channel without an agenda, political or otherwise. that sadly is the state of affairs.
To be honest i find it strange that such a competative tender to supply was done with 80% of the final submissions from south africa and only 20 percent from outside africa
.
why?
iam unable to comment further on this but my sources indicate that some heads are going to roll,and in my estimation the CGS should not allow a situation whereby anything worth more than one million shillings is purchased without his signature ..after all when the shit hits the fan..he is the one who is on the spot.
I would like to take this moment to announce that it’s been a week since the
http://eastafrican.userboard.net/
Site was launched.
All faculties are functioning as expected.
I appreciate having the opportunity to work for this group and the members that joined the new site. Thanks for your guidance, support and contributions.
I hope you will enjoy the new site.
More enquires can be mailed through “Contact us” on the main page.
Thanks again for everything.
Yours truly,
Andre
Thanks, Andre, we will and be sure to join the discussions here as well: http://planetafricana.blogspot.com/
it is good that u show the whole world you are ready for anything.VERY SOON AM GOING TO BE WITH YOU
so are we moving to Yankee station or which blog are moving to? by the way where is Olekoima?
it seems we are still here for a while ….
what do yuo say about this
http://easternafricafiles.blogspot.com/2010/10/new-military-purchases-in-kenya-spark.html
i know ole nkarei is very upset about this report
i was hoping to avoid commenting on this. anyway, we need to accept that corruption has permeated the military. we all know of the “booked” recruitment spaces, various scandals e.g Denel scam involving the deputy CGS, the boots scandal that landed ex army commander in hot water, KNS Jasiri’s woes, aero vodochody debacle…the list goes on and on and on. anyway what i’m trying to say is that there may be some ‘kuongeza chumvi’ as is the fashion of Standard Media Group but in the end i believe there’s enough truth in this to warrant an actionable response. In any case the Boers aren’t exactly known for their morals……………
i just can’t stop asking myself this, why couldn’t they just opt for IAI Ramta? these guys have a ton of combat experience, unparalleled reliability not forgeting that they are perhaps our most reliable alies.
I am not a cynic of freedoms of expressions that the media harps about constantly to justify the public lynching and frequent falsehoods they peddle in the guise of Information and News. A while ago, I postulated that Uniforms welcome this new Age with trepidation but with Courage, and that we all look forward to exploring these previously uncharted frontiers of Openness with the Civilians on Matters Military & Intelligence. It should be too difficult today to understand why there is trepidation with this new-fangled latitude of a need to know by the Public especially through our mongrel make-believe Media in Kenya. In all competition, and Arms Procurement is one such of the supply-to-demand, there will always be a “loser” and a “winner” –never mind that the Civilian occupies the primary position of gain when such Procurement is effected to maximize gain and optimize cost ( which is the purpose of the exercise of Oversight & Procedures on every Public Procurement including Military. In the corporate world, in which I am not an expert of happenings therein), I suspect that the rules are coined as the competitive scenario changes, in response to the cutthroat demand to corporate success of Objectives. The balance of morality shift to convenience, from one situation to the next and one Organization to another, one Corporate Captain to the next – heck, so does it in the manner that different Military Groupings project the definition of “thou shall not Kill.” ( “D” for instance will see this one way, while I and my inglorious crew will see it differently, and even then varied from situation to the next, to boot!!). It is why Security Organization are so morbid about the integrity of their operations including Procurement. This is not a fear to be ‘ held to account’ , as some insidious fella in the Standard this morning pontificates in a silly “ Opinion” commentary; it is not indicative of corruption or the subversion of Procedure and Oversight. Hell No!! It is simply the fear that the indisciplined and convoluted corruptive mindset in the Corporate World that permeates the Public Media to such an horrific degree, will latch on to the Military and destroy it’s essential fabric. And see what then results from such nonsense – each Nation that has unwittingly allowed such unfettered egress of the Corporate World into itself has suffered the collapse of all pillars of Discipline and lost all pretensions to an Organized Military. Nigeria, DRC, Ethiopia, Guinea, Togo, TZ and Rwanda next door, list is endless. At the end of this saga, we shall once again prove ourselves worthy of your Trust and safeguard our hard-earned honor, and these unmentionably devious characters will simply fade to await another occasion to sell their mercenary abilities to some Loser in a future corporate confrontation. Eeiiisssh!!!
About where we are moving to, i guess we now have diversity and somewhat the good will thrive and the bad / poorly planned will fiddle away. either by design or by chance soo many “blogs” have cropped up that it no longer makes sense tp try galvanize everyone together.
That said, i find planetafrikana and this chronicle the biggest contenders, sadly they are all on the same platform (just different hosts) and are thus prone to the same challenges.
That said, I have a new discussion topic hopefully to steer us in some new direction. DARFUR. There is a movie that came out a few weeks back called “attack on darfur” showing the crazies. at the end though, we were left asking, what is the Darfur conflict really about? is it just as superficial as you are black and i am arab and im going to bust your sorry #$$ out of this world Allahu Akbar? or is there something more?
(Sorry if it sounded bigot-ous but thats exactly the way it came out of my 14year old niece)
Nothing to do with security matters at the first glance, but..
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBMA00871620101027
Tullow to pay the CGT? We’ll wait for more details, but if true, M7 may finally have got some money to waste on the Sukhoi’s.
It’s amazing how these guys have cornered themselves into a situation where they’d have to agree to pay a tax which is not theirs and which they won’t recover because it’s not payable in the first place. I expect heads to roll at Tullow..
Dang-right you are Mugwiira. M7 now has his USD400 from that Tullow-deal. And the Sh… is about to hit the fan, as the real push to exploit the Edward-sands is begun. All manner of schemes to steal the match from between the competing avaricious parties, with the Russians reported to be offering in-kind deals which for M7 would be just what he needs to circumvent US and EU scrutiny on Defense Spending currently capped as condition to their Budgetary Support of Uganda. We are watching, and wagging our tails in excitement.
Mugwira did you in all honesty think that Tullow would not pay that money to UG after the Government had declared that they were owed this money? Twice Tullow Ceo and top exes went to see museveni and the only thing he ever asked them is “are you going to pay the Tax”? And every time if the answer didn’t begin with a”yes” that ended the meeting immediately. There is no arbitration that was going to save tullow. Heritage duped them and now they are paying for it. Hopefully they had some kind of clause in the sale that may help them recoup some of that money from heritage. Tullow knew that taking this matter to arbitration will just annoy museveni further and he would kick them out and give those Oil fields to the French, Chinese, South Africans, Indians, Italians; the line of suitors was too long and museveni was not going to stand for Tullow “games”. Museveni despite his other weakness, every time he has his mind set on something will always get his way and this is the same attitude he has for Somalia, he is going to get his way despite what the AU may have agreed on in KLA during the last meeting. He is starting to get things done his way with additional troops and increased US and EU involvement; it’s just that we don’t know if the end result is what he will have predicted.
You are right, but to a certain degree only.
It’s only an NRM spin that it was M7’s “toughness” that made Tullow reconsider their position. The talk on the street is that CNOOC and Total agreed to “subsidize” Tullow to the tune of the CGT amount. Moreover, because this is a PSA not a concession, they can then together recover this money by “tweaking” their investment costs.
It’s true Tullow was in a weak negotiating position because their license for Block 3A had expired. However, they cannot blame anyone but themselves for that. They rushed to conclude with Heritage, they overestimated the importance of their “mutual understanding” with GoU (never trust a one-man government!), and they left their rear defenseless because of the Block 3A licensing issue.
However, you are wrong that M7 could have so easily given Tullow’s blocks to someone else. You cannot blackmail one company because you are demanding a tax from another. When you cancel a company’s license – even if you have the authority – you need to 1) act reasonably and 2) give the licensee a fair hearing. In this case, the cancellation was hardly reasonable, and done for reasons which have little to do with the licensing conditions. Tullow could have gone to an arbitrator and with a fair degree of certainty obtained a restraining order. Even if no order were issued, NO COMPANY (even Chinese) would’ve touched these blocks as long as arbitration is in progress (which is years).
But that would be a declaration of war. Apparently, Tullow found a better way out.
One thing which everyone has learned from this story is that you need to be careful and tough if you do oil business in Uganda. No good guy attitude.
Of course Oil bussiness is rough. it is just as cut throat as Arms Sells. you don’t get inthis bussiness with a weak demeanour otherwise you end being like Nigeria
What this apcs scandal in the dod?
C’mon AK. don’t ask us to do the hatchet-man job for the vindictive media, here. What do you know, and please just go ahead and share it here with us!.
Col, is the heightened choper activity at M.A.B connected in any way with “our” ex-Manyani boys?
No, Jasiri. The Mayani chaps got a plastering, and it appears there are not quite adequately motivated, though I will be damned if any uniform requires greater motivation than fighting for the survival of his Nation and People. This MAB Rotary-Wing buzz is but heightened training & breaking-in of the new hardware and crew. Nothing untoward. But careful you don’t get me into trouble with pointed queries like this one, buddy.
T
@ Tororo – what exactly do you mean “end being like Nigeria”? The problem of Nigeria is not oil companies taking advantage of the country, but elites taking advanage of the small people, especially the Delta people.
Mining business (and arms business) is actually much more gentlemanly these days than in the past. Just think, for example, how many coups can be financed with $400m..
@ Tororo – what exactly do you mean “end being like Nigeria”? The problem of Nigeria is not oil companies taking advantage of the country, but elites taking advanage of the small people, especially the Delta people.
Btw, mining business (and arms business) is actually much more gentlemanly these days than in the past. Otherwise, just think how many coups can be financed with $400m..
Barre Hiirale has vacated Beled Hawo. Again.
These incursions cannot succeed unless AMISOM does smth proactive in Mogadisho, tying the Shabaab there. I wonder though if it will ever happen.
I hear you Mugwiira. Bloody extortionists, these brigands have become. They take a pasting and the stomach falls out of their fight. It is really why sustaining effective aggressor-action in Somalia has proved so fickle without the involvement of a direct external component. Damn!!
gentlemen ..such news as alleged by the standard newspaper today serves no purpose in my view other than denting the kenyan publics new found confidence in the armedforces of kenya
they say the F5 s are true junks and only one is air worthy.
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=2000021374&cid=4&ttl=Kenya%27s%20%27new%27%20fighter%20jets%20cannot%20take%20off
we have been debating and exchanhing views on this subject for ages …some one neds to counter this story with facts NOW NOW NOW.
One word, JOKERS!
Spidey, hold on to your boots for a short while, let kDoD issue an appropriate response. You are experience enough to know the plots and ploys that are weaved all without visible relationships, but intended to reach a particular conclusion. Surely it will not have escaped your sleuth-mind that this new story might be intended to open up normally reticent and recalcitrant kDoD to Keynan’s Committee’s attention? The good and the bad will thrive in any situation of freedom. Cut us some slack, brother, Wait a while.
perfectly understood..but what is upsetting is these so called exposes from the standard are quoting informed sources from the Kdod system.who is this that isgrassing dangerously with the safety of our men and women.?
anyway iam made to understand most of the hardware is in good shape and will feature next month during the jamhuri day celebrations.
my reaction above and elsewhere on the blog is meant to solicit views diversely to generate debate.
i have been unable to load the standard newspaper in the last two hours
I T seems the papers web page is under cyber attack.any ideas ?
SPIDEY, i think this site has been hacked. my anti virus is telling me this site may harm your computer. hmm, i wonder who is responsible
Not at all, Spidey. Gosh, spook-men forever, it seems like! It opens pretty easier from here. Try again, buddy. Coordinated, Kenya-led anti-piracy top-dogs meeting at the Coast going on now a week!
I have fount out that it the browser settings if you are using mozila firefox .
i switched bact to internet explorer 8 and found it is ok.
the reason i became suspicoius was because i used three diffrent machines i have availlable and even now they are giving me an unsafe site warning for the standard web page.
they are filtering it as a hacker site.someone should warn the standard newspaper themselvs to sort matters out at their end.
@Ole Nkarei…. you cant leave us salivating, youve gotta m\give us more on the happenings hapa pwani….. is that 8 nautical miles off kenya coast porojo pia?
Gentlemen, I expect some of you will see my sentimentality as needless and inappropriate, but man, I gotta say it anyway. Nothing in my world hurts as much as the self-loathing expressed so easily by Kenyans, the penchant to self-deprecation and self-flagellation (so to speak). It cannot be justified by history nor by our character as Kenyans, that the worst advocates for our essential goodness as a People are Kenyans themselves. In every country that I have personally lived in for more than just a flying visit, I have observed that there are social ills and decadence that would turns stomach, very much like in our Home Country Kenya. There are various fora and groupings that have formed active aggressor-type Cells of activism against these negative expressions of Nation-hood, and their condemnation and revolt is sometimes even more stringent than in Kenya. But this incredible ability of Kenyans to guillotine “Kenyan-hood” and to desire to appear to be intellectually able measured by the extent of the “darkness” of their pronouncement about the Ills and rots in our Nation is uniquely Kenyan. Professional reactionaries, agents of provocative social disorders, etc.. At such times, I wonder what then is the point in any sort of national endeavor for this Great Nation, what to make of the daily sacrifice of countless ordinary and simple Kenyans for Kenya, of those unrequited Patriotic Kenyans now demised without recognition or even recompense. Hell, I question the very rationality of our Kenyanese!! Can we not have criticism no matter how stringent and severe without the vile pronouncements you read daily in all manner of places? Eeiishhl!!
@ Jasiri,
Well i’ am around. Just watching things quietly. ‘D’ has not posted for a while too. Where is he?
I plan to sample these other sites by Spidey, Vitruvian etc.
However i will still blog here.
We are really missing Risasi’s contributions too.
@Vitruvian,Spiderman,
How do we sign up to the forums that you have created?
Hi Olekoima. No need to sign up, you simply post your comments. You are very welcome. Same goes for you all – Risasi, Mugwiira, ‘D’, Jasiri, Kagonde, One Man Army, Steve, Tororo, Beef-Eagle. Let’s get our discussions rolling again. Karibuni one and all.
@olekioma
likewise for easttern africa blog.just post a comment directly to any post you re intersted in.but you get more features ifyou sign inby using any g mail acount.you can create onefor sighning in purposes.
please let me know if you areunable to oost and i will sort out any issues
@ Vitruvian,Spiderman,
Many thanks.
Hello guys, after a hiaitus from this (and follow up with some guys privately as mentioned a while back), we invite you to check progress on the proposed collective setup at http://bit.ly/bG2aB9
So you’ve also gone solo? Man, everyone will have his own blog in the end.
not if you were keen enough to check my posts previously on this matter.
I actually played ball, Areba. No result.
no biggie @virtuvian. i guess you got the last email i copied everyone, continued to work with those that responded and that link is what came out. but as i said, these things have a way of panning out and stabilizing. just keep an open mind and as they say, rule number one Never trust anybody, rule number 2, never trust anybody.
http://kenyadaima.com/d6/?q=node/2 thats the gist of what exchanges ran across …
AFRICOM is coming to set up base camp in UGANDA….permanently…
@ole nkerai ..it seems that Tororo feller is right after all
these yanks are now intent on setting up a boot camp in Uganda….it will form part of the son of kogelos visit to launch nexr year…we are looking into this and will revert back
http://easternafricafiles.blogspot.com/2010/11/americans-set-to-make-uganda-their-main.html
I think this has something to do with the warm and enthusiastic response from M7. In the past most African leaders have been wary of uncle Sam’s real intentions. Let’s wait and see.
Yes i remember Tororo mentioning something like this in his previous posts.
gentlemen i have noticed an increased traffic searches from REUTERS news com search on the eastern africas files blog…is this a good or bad sign?they are researching the N49 inteligence piece i did on the site
Reuters is a rumor-monger, you know the type of these correspondents, bar-huggers, idlers who peddle half-truths and disinformation as agents of Intelligence Agencies the world over. There are looking for morsels to satiate their ‘dogs’ with, filling their “news” quotas. No panic, Spidey, just keep doing your thing, running point.
Far from it , brother OleKoima ( Welcome back bra!) Too is being read into this report of AFRICOM creating a training Base Camp in Uganda, which is my estimation is innocuous and without geopolitical significance of substantive depth. Let us think this strategically and analyze this without the heat that Tororo brings to it. Clearly from all Military perspective UG is wholly unsuited as a staging location for the Large-scale projection in-force of international military power. Egress for whatever purpose would be essentially and solely Aerial which dramatically reduces the efficacy and attractiveness of Uganda. The Ideal and declared objective of the Western Coalition has always been to locate in Kenya as their Primary,and Djibouti and Somalia as a secondary. For purely military consideration. Factor in that already the Political and Diplomatic epicenter of the Western Coalition in Africa is firmly in Nairobi, and you will see indeed their direction of their long-strategic planning which Africom is but a facet of. The Americans are disengaging from the Tall-thin-Man, who has to date being their primary in their Clandestine activities in the Great Lakes Region for a Decade upon the demise of Mobuto who they em-placed and sustained to play that very role. But their interests there remain as relevant and important today as then, and therefore their dancing with the Bandit-king. Now consider that following;- 1. that UG has remained in a virtual state of War-footing either by design or incompetence of the Bandit-king for Twenty years, and the dispensation after this years election though certainly robbing him of his exclusive hold on the structures of power and the ability to influence the retention of the power-structure post M7, also make for a fluid and unqualified unpredictable short-term future, making it impossible for anyone undertaking long-term planning by outside forces including those in EAC. Consequently, all contact with the Western Coalition in UG are premised on the health of the Bandit-king and his continued retention of State Power structures. 2. There is currently little American HUMMINT in this Great Lakes Region, and tracking is either by proxy or through friendlies such as Kenya who have an established presence of HUMMINT in the region. The Regrouping from Rwanda to Uganda will essentially be of the NSA components in Clandestine Operations, basically Technologically based, needed to maintain an eye-watch over the DRC and the constellation of Nations around her. As well as those Logistical-support functions of several small detachments scattered around the Central Africa region. 3. The Western Coalition is disengaging from the Tall-thin-man in reaction to the fast-developing Geopolitical dynamics or this Region mostly lead by and centered around Kenya. They are NOT seeking to supplant or ran in counter to this emerging dynamics, but to function inside it, in tandem with it. Some will dismiss this point of view as personal and in ignorance or denial. My colleagues and I have argued back and forth as new developments and morsels of intel come in, and this is the general consensus.
Honestly this whole hullabaloo about AFRICOM in Uganda never made sense to me for exactly the same reasons in Ole Nkarei stated but in less detailed version. We all know of the American love affair with the sea, now unless they found a way to fly their warships into Speke resort i would classify this as wishful thinking. On the other hand, snippets from Uganda inform me that the Ugandan’s are not too happy with the bandit-king. Knowing how Americans are thorough with their political risk assessment it his highly unlikely that they would make such a major investment based on sentiments. At best this may just be an F.O.B
@jasiri
wellcome back
there is no hullaballo about this intended FOB for the yanks in uganda.i brought it up for discussion precisely as a blogger would do..since thisp rovides us another platform to expand our views.
On the m7 political future… he will offcourse win the elections and the Baganda who are backing the half kenyan besigye will protest.. the mambas will be deployed and guys clobbered and then three days later things cool down…M7 then will turn his attention to other matters to prepare his son for his legacy.
Hi all…
having leant that there are no permanent enemies / friends but permanent interests, could all this be about the vast discovered / yet to be discovered resources in a region more accessible to Uganda than in kenya (considering that DRC and Southern sudan are both a border away from Uganda) so that in the eventual scramble for resources they have a headstart over Hu Jintao and his 1.5 billion hungry investors?
@Areba – let me dissuade you and others who might have been seduced by the beautiful noises in the Media on the EAC integration, that this feel-good brotherhood is at best a perfumed smokescreen to mitigate the intense competition for pre-eminence between states of the EAC. It is akin to Marital Rape – which some of your Neanderthal types believe cannot be possible! National Characteristics are already set, very defined and unique to each State, unchanged by any sort of Integration between Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, GoSS, Ethiopia, and Somalia. The Unitary German state is in effect only so in the Statutes, and remain indelibly divided and uniquely different, and so is the centuries-old Union between the USA and Canada. Make no mistake about it, that Kenya must grow exponentially strong Militarily to underpin strong growth in all other aspects, and the motivation engineered by the vast p\possibilities inherent in this EAC Integration simply just make the determination and appetite of Kenya to grow inexorably inevitable. We have the bait-spoor in our noses, and the hunt is on. Present Rules of Engagement –recce-under-fire, make no mistake about it
hi guys,am back,wats the news?
last week a foreign submarine docked at the port of mombasa,this was ma first time to have close view of this underwater machine
i wish it could have been for mtongwe boys.
suprisingly pirates are now operating within kenyan waters,mtongwe boys seems to be appalled
the navy has sorted some of these pirates by killing three as per this daily nation report.
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/1052918/-/11hvw1dz/-/index.html
but i do not understand how they allowed these pirates to come to within boarding distance to the kenya navy vessel.do we know which vessel it was?
Egg on-our-face, Spidey, I must admit! That Boat is so equipped you cannot creep up to it to boarding distance, even with a Sub, unless someone is not on the ball. Someone asleep on the job! Hell to pay, I tell you.Poor bugger!
precisely…they should have sorted the guys long before they boarded….ie blow then out the water……bloody hell..
i think this was one of our LSM’s-going by how those bandits mistook it for a cargo ship- and the crew may not have been well accustomed to combat maritime patrol. all in all the captain of this ship must answer for negligence. Letting this goons so close to a warship is just plain negligence. what if they had chosen to RPG it when they realised it was a warship? at best the captain should have radioed F.O.B msa to get the air force guys to search for the mother ship.
@olekoima
Hey was this submarine that docked at mombasa Russian or american or British??
Sorry Pal,
Was away briefly. Let me check. Will get back to you shortly or what do you have Jasiri?
highly unlikely it was American, possibly NATO or russian considering their FM will be in Kenya. but it would help matters Olekoima if you could describe how it looked. Subs like warplanes too are similar to the ordinary folk but are very different to someone who knows what to look for.
Well Jasiri, it is not me who saw the Sub.It was actually Chinook who did.
there is mention, and timelines that look quite close , of a NATO sub deployment here.
http://www.suite101.com/content/dutch-submarine-to-beef-up-somalia-anti-piracy-force-a252555
I do not think Kenya shall get a sub any time soon.
i beg to differ. i believe kenya may operate a sub sooner than we think. consider this, Lamu mega port, myriad of foreign warships off our coast, sudden explosion of special forces units within the KDoD does a sub look less likely? The sub is the ultimate pal for special operations troops and a very effective machine for intell gathering. We may need such capabilities very soon.
You need to build up a rapport, Kenya Army Blogspot. Enthusiasm isn’t enough.
@jasiri, i may be wrong but the functions you mention may be better served by unmanned (there i go again) Aerial Vehicles. I would love to know operation wise the difference in cost and punch. Im still inclined towards the predator….
Areba, the cost of setting up supporting infrastructure for the drones vis-a-vis it’s return on investment cannot compared to that of a sub. a drone can’t insert CDU/SBS teams into enemy shores for assassinations or lintel gathering. likewise it can’t protect our coastline from hostile warship same way a sub does. To add to that, if a sub is armed with land attack missiles then it becomes a very priceless force multiplier. you really can’t bargain a sub with a drone.
I said a while ago that all this talk about scandalous irregular APC purchase and Jets that supposedly can’t fly, and a girl that procured an abortion overnight when she failed recruitment in Eldoret, was just a clever ploy by Keynan’s Committee to rattle kDoO in prep for Monday’s Meet. It failed to achieve any positive results beyond sallying the reputation of Honorable dedicated Men doing their jobs well. It sickens me to see how easily the Public is seduced by our insidious political class peddling their trademark wares of trade. With the Media agog with excitement at the anticipated blood-bath. Eeeiish
Hahahaha, it never fails to capture my attention how the Kenyan public is easily swayed by calculated timings of leaks.
To matters defence however, what is the implication of the visit by Sergey Lavrov to Kenya? I think someone is about to be really pissed off in regards to the transfer of Foxtrot one fivers to kina risasi n crew.
SERGEY LAVROV is laying the ground work for either putin or medvedev to drop in AROUND JUNE 2011.
This may be materialisation of all that Col has been saying all along, that we are increasingly becoming independent. If indeed Vladimir Putin or the lesser Dmitry Medvedev visits Kenya next year, that would be a major coup for the Russians and us over the Yanks.
By the way, i have watched a documentary on the history of the F-5 and im convinced no F-5 – even the initial ones made in the sixties should be trashed. It is a highly capable fighter and anyone who dares rant about it being “old fashioned” would most likely complain at a construction company buying isuzu / toyota pickups when they can get “better” (read more expensive) range rovers….. 🙂
When budgetary considerations, ease of operation, experience in operating and servicing and strategic objectives are considered, it makes no sense to spend billions on a single plane.
ill quote a comment that made a lot of sense:
in dogfights between equipped F-5 against a myriad of the best fighter planes in the market, the margin was not as big as their difference in age, and when the dollar cost of felled planes in the exercise were compared, the f-5 were way up there. Which means that in a war, if three F-5 eagles fell a single F-16 or F22, it still makes a lot of sense.
While it is true the F5 is an agile fighter..it has limitations in terms of modern warfare .IT is not an air superiority fighter and to configure it to carry out that role is impracticle because of its effective operational combat range ability and armaments it can carry…and speed.
mig 29 su30, f15 all can have ranges of over 3000 km and their electronic warfare suits are very s.
people like jasiri can tell us more about the F5
… and in other news making headlines, The US of A is releasing its “battle of the x-planes” production jets to a real life battlefront for some real world applications. Interesting how reasons have to be looked for to arm an ally.
http://en.rian.ru/world/20101114/161331923.html
What does Russia export that competes with the Americans, an which would make the Foreign Minister drop all activities and make what in effect is an impromptu visit to Africa? How many African Visits has he undertaken in the past year? Guys, time to wake up, and smell the fresh Highland Coffee cookin’ on the after-burn of those Foxtrot-15-echoes!!
MiG-35’s or SU-3- MKI’s in line possibly? or is it more Mils and a few Kamov’s? either way it would be wise to do it the Malaysia way.
This is not good news …what went wrong?could it be that all the debates and blogging we have had all these months is true that the kenyan public is being shortchanged?..an very disappointed and i hope the truth is diffrent.
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Military%20procurement%20bosses%20resign%20/-/1056/1055762/-/15a0egv/-/index.html
Perhaps we should wait for the investigation to conclude before passing judgement. No institution or individual is immune to wrongdoing. As with Ruto and Wetang’ula, these resignations are in the spirit of the new constitution and are necessary to pave the way for thorough investigations which, no doubt, will be conducted by both civilian and military authorities. The result can only be positive. If there was foul play and our security has been compromised, then heads will roll. The end result will be a cleaner, leaner system of procurement. And that is a good thing. If it is a witch-hunt or dog-wagging, the fact will eventually surface and the public will be the wiser for it. What bothers me is that there are never any consequences for the false accusers.
Spidey, it is easy to sense you despair, and one cannot blame you for feeling like that. Hell, a whole lot of guys are carrying rather heavy stones where the hearts usually are. These are the “disciplined forces” for crying-out-loud! But you more than most will recall how your old Unit and all good intentioned and hard-working men in the SB were vilified and crucified for the odd rotten potatoes in it. DO you recall how impossible it was to have a drink and discuss your day at work with you friends in the local pub, in those days? How new acquaintances would fall off as soon as someone whispered you worked for JK? How hard it was some days to get motivation to get up in the morning and get cracking? Cut us some slack, while the inquests runs its course – we all want to know what there is to know. All of us, buddy. The Boss asked these chaps to step aside, would not entertain the circus of the Politicians in similar straits, to avoid the expected chorus from the Media that the Uniforms were protecting their own if this Inquest proceeded with these Chaps still wearing Uniform and holding Office. I have no doubt these matters will be set right and Vindication will be forthcoming. Eeiiish!!
I’ am compelled to believe that indeed some of these scandals are actually happening as reported at the DOD. How else can some ‘innocent’ generals opt to resign rather than face prob? Isn’t this telling a lot?
You can be innocent of wrongdoing, but if it happens under your watch, the responsibility is yours. In “traditional democracies”, for example, an official (e.g. a minister or whatever) will resign for errors or wrongdoing within his ministry, whether he was aware of the fact or not.
Also, the generals might wish to resign rather than face a court martial.
Yes, but what is there to fear if you are indeed innocent? The truth will surely come out for all to see.
My brothers, it is instructive to now cut through the starched dress, the stiff-legged and necked man most civilians think Men of the Uniform are. Who is this man that embracing daily his acceptance of death as his companion, who will jump into harm’s way without hesitation because this is asked of him. A soldier is nor fearless, neither a blameless Angel without blemish. Simply put, it is the Code by which he lives and dies that distinguish him from his Civilian brother, which determines his actions, intentions, thoughts, philosophy. An Officer of the Corps is inherently and unquestionably a Man of Honor, his word his bond, a man for whom fighting side by side – and dying side by side, is honorable, a man of Valor and Integrity for whom another Soldier will without second-thoughts share life-threatening dangers because this Soldier would do the same in a situation of reversal. Now, it is also true that the Soldier invariably distinguishes himself proportionately as he subverts himself to this Code – PERIOD!! Essentially, THEN, a Soldier, and to boot a General Officer who calls upon Soldiers he leads to die without questioning, is not what you describe in your piece, OleKoima. It is not to say that insidious corruption is impossible in the Military – hell, I opine here above that the soldier will distinguish himself in proportion to how he subverts himself to this Code. But such corruption is simply just that, brothers, CORRUPTIONS! It flies against the essential component that defines a UNIFORMED SOLDIER. Consequently, you all need to stop for an instant and contemplate the damage to the Corps this blanket condemnation of Uniforms in the looseness of these yet to be substantiated allegations is causing. My plea, and that of thousands of others Uniforms, is that blame be correctly apportioned to specific individuals, through the investigative process that is on-going, and sanctions be then meted out. This Wholesale vilification and condemnation presently taking place, without affording the possibility of rebuttal to thousands of honorable men in Uniform, is debilitating and grossly unjust to the Military. It is for this reason alone that the General Officer and those others stepped down, and not a fear of investigation as my respected brother OleKoima opined, and critically also to insulated the rest of us from this indiscrimate lynching – they did what all Soldiers daily commit to do, to jump in the breech for the Corps. And I hold no brief for kDoD to make this defense here
well said, sir
I guess you misunderstood me Col. Ole Nkarei, i did not condemn the uniforms wholesale, but a few individual generals who might have soiled the reputation of an otherwise highly respected institution.My apologies if i sounded otherwise.
@ olekoima – I never doubted where your heart was, bra. And that long harangue was not directed at you, but quite alot of other chaps that know not better – just used you as a fulcrum to pivot around with my argument. Pole sana buddy. There is quite some anxiety seeping around, and certainly a heavy shifting is not unlikely – so proper perspective on these matters would help make these transitional shifts easier, palatable. Hell, you know what I am meaning, I am sure.
Well, point taken. Thanks.
Just for a minute put this matter into perspective. 1. That unbelievably Huge amounts of money, unprecedented in this region and just a pointer to future spending are involved here. 2.That the tendering invariably resulted in a winner and some losers – that is the whole purpose of tendering after all. 3. That there are embedded interested parties to defense procurement, mostly traditional and western in origin, whose loss of precendent translates negatively to their social-welfare states. 4. Into this mix, throw in the cut-throat competition building up over the Entire Government Procurement Portfolio, projecting into the ethereal realms we have discussed of Kenyana into-the-2030, 5. See the inexorable loss of precendent of traditional western suppliers for more competitive 2nd World suppliers. 6. throw in our homegrown paid civil society agitators who have defined themselves by the level of noises they make to murky up governance and political life in Kenya. 7. now factor in the dishonourable Uniform seduced by the Corporate world. This is one explosive IED guys, I dare say!!
someone sent me this link from sweden … this kenyan man ranting about kenyan military….it is an old thing but i wonder how relevant it is today…
Guys some interesting developments have been taking place in the last week. 1. Kenya is setting up a 1million ton capacity steel mill, 2. Kenya Navy has set up a corridor for merchant ship free from any and all leisure skiffs, fishing boats e.t.c, 3. Britain will be deploying mercenaries to battle the Somali pirates. I’m especially concerned with the third development, are this guys there for anti-piracy op’s or should we be particularly careful to watch our 6?
These British Mercenaries are just a cover for Covert Ops into this region, our backyard. asiri hits it right on the Nose – too much going on and planned that the old Economies have not had imput into, are on the sidelines of, are not the originators, have not taken “ownership” of. The Chinese, Brazilians, Indians and now Russians putting stakes all over this “Kenyana” Region – and guess at whose “expense”, guys? Whatever their sponsoring old Economies call these mercenaries, or define their tasking, are you foooled that they are any different, or tarred by a different brush, from the Somalia Sea Brigands? I repeat for the umpteenth time – our former oppressors cannot and have not metarmophosised into our champions, our defenders. At least I missed their coverting trip to Damascus, friends!!
Even worse – Mungiki has not redeming pretensions, these SBS-type goons are deploying in your name – the higher moral ground, so to speak. So that if a “Stick” (five troopers for the SAS) is chased down and wasted in Kismayu area, on a deep-insertion Ops, they will be officially denied and dismissed as “mercenaries on Commercial-industry hire”. Well, two can play this game too – these are not the eighties, guys! You know Gen Kianga last week tore up their Carte Blanche which allowed them access and exit without restrictions nor legal liabilities?
@@Major Ole Nkarei,
do graduates join the military?am a kenyan,recently garduated from a public university,and would like to know if theres a chance for me.from a young age i have been very keen to join the Kenya defence Forces.
the military has all types of graduates, ie lawyers,doctors,engineers,technicians,telecoms,IT, of all sorts etc
you can join as a specialist in any field you have majored in and usually they announce when they are recruiting.
the level of entry is usually officer level for startes whereby after succesfull completion of the basic oficer cadet training course you get your commission and from there hard work hard work and hard work…also these days for you to progress you need to be constantly training and the military will do its best to train you locally and overseas…..SO LOOK out when they announce for the next officer cadet recruiting face and try… good luck my brother
Thanks Pat. You got my six just right!
Power of the Media. even “seasoned analysts”” seem to think little of the east – west battle for control of local contracts…
http://bit.ly/gVLm3W
Brother Areba, that site will not find resonance with chaps on this blog, it is a talk-shop, peddling shallow extrapolations couched in intellectualism. The Jury is yet to return, though.
Areba, might these “seasoned analysts” be you? just asking, coz i happened to see a footer “Arba’s Blog”…
Ole Nkarei, so this britt mercs are just international Mungiki with recognition from powers that be, i figured.
And the shadowy games continue, as the Old Economies intensify their thinly veiled activities to wrest relevance and pre-eminence from China, to rein in our drive for independence that has caused a tidal wave of African self-assertions in Kenyana in the last seven years. Wild allegations from Reineberger without substantiation beyond the hype it creates ( we are told his appearance before PLO was on a GoK ultimatum to back his claims or be ejected from Kenya pending completion for formal consular rejection). Then a resurrection of a multiplicity of “scandals” – some real others simply conjured, most of them full of political thunder and little legal substance, designed to keep GoK back-peddling and the Political Class polarized and gridlocked. Petrol price increases without rationale nor justifications driven by this Cabal of Western Conglomerates, designed to slow down the economy by it’s multiplier effect in the economy. Reineberger famously announces the deployment of the FBI and DIA at the same time that his Protégée with his usual flair latches on to announce in Bunge the formation of an Outfit he calls the Special Organized Crimes Unit ( borrowed from the British Special Crimes Unit, damn the lack of originality!). This activity-list is endless. So Mercenaries now being thrown up as cover for serious covert action in part of the world, while our Governance behaves like a headless chicken or a punch-drunk pugilist! We are at War, Kenyans, and we need to step up our smarts or we shall revert to cotton-picking on some settler plantation before long! When did our centuries-old tormentors convert to become our savior, our champion, our protector? By what means this exponential conversion?
Correction – so and so called his the “Serious Organised Crimes Unit”, and the British call theirs the “Serious Crimes Unit”.
OBAMA is now preparing his eastern africa strategy …
UGANDA to be the main beneficiary
The south koreans started the artillary fire while carrying out war games 12 kms from the north korean border.the north korens gave them three warnings and when the south koreans failed to stop the north responded by firing 200 shells to the islands bases and a few civillians areas
The americans are seemingly behind the scenes …i think the yanks are testing the norths resolve and ability to respond ..as they think the dear leader is in a weakened position.
They are surprised …hense the resignation of korean minuister of defence.
The WESTERN press as usual has jumped on the bandwagon by giving wrong facts on who is to blame… BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE the north koreans are no joke and they can waste the south korena capital within minutes as they are said to have over 1300 missiles and artillry pieces pointnig at SEOUL…IN SHORT this spart will be wound down quickly as neither side wants to contemplate the consequences of their actions…and americans cant start another war front…CLASIC catch 22 situation…
furthermore the north korens are the only nation on earth whose people,economy and thinking is in a permanent state of war…only surpased by the israelis.
THE north koreans have prepared massive and relentless tunnesl,bunkers,fortifications and underground networks of tunnels filled with all manner of surpplies.they have confirmed number 12 atomic warheads but is not known if they can be launched and there fore nobody wants to find out.they recently testfired a missile that over flew japan and landed the other side …THE JAPs WERE SHOCKED.
…..SAID simply americans and the south koreans will win the war with the north but the costs and human life will be enormous and not worth the effort. since the americans will need to employ some of thier strategic assets in order to overcome the north and remember the norths 1.5 million army can mobilse and be within the south within 1hour…..SO lets wait and see…frankly speaking the american war machine for once has very few options and is praying that things wind down…of course the chinese are watching with subdued glee…at this dilemna.
@
all blogers… i have ben busy else where earning unga for my efforts …thats why in have not produced anything of substance last few weeks…on the eastenafrica files..but iam back now and will post topical views starting this weekend…CHEERS.!!
The Yanks amaze every student of Military Science by their inability to make use of lessons from their Military History. A classic replication of the Viet Ming contest now risks being open right on our door-step with this nonsense Obama is pushing in the Congress. The only explanation is that the Yank’s National Interests, present and expected, have put blinkers on the whichever group has current precedent in Washington – after all subsequent in-coming Administrations will enjoy the political windfall of extricating the Yanks from whatever mud they get into with their eyes open. Clearly it is not conjecture that LRA is a Machiavellian plot by one clever East African Strong-man that have served him well over the past twenty years, but which has refused to be swept under his Carpet subsequently. And due to the active demographies / history of conflict in UG and her surrounding Countries, LRA remains defeated but relevant. He chased them out of UG nearly a decade ago, but continue to project itself into the Body of UG from externally. M7 recently internationalized this UG conflict by dragging the CAR and DRC into it ostensibly to jointly assist him clean up his export demons. Apart from visiting LRA penchant for mindless and devilish violence of defenseless civilians which have sustained her relevance in UG, little success has been achieved. The Humanitarian dimension of his expanded conflict is what Obama is using as his justification for his initiative. Iam not convinced that this will have a positive result beyond aggravating the militarization of this area, and therefore the violence resulting from their contact. My conclusion is that the Yanks are well aware of this real risks of reincarnating Viet Mingh in the CAR but have a short-term need for the confusion and destabilization that their efforts will generate in this Region. It is not entirely unimaginable that a successful and peaceful referendum in Sudan coupled with some progress in Somalia from all initiatives running both military and political, will render this Obama plan still-born.
Ole Nkarei any more doubts about what I had told you were the intentions of Uncle sam for UG? They are looking to setup in the “Living Room” of Africa from where they can now control Ug, Ky,Tz, RW, Bu, DRC,Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia and CAR. One way or another there is going to be a US base in Ug, weather they are going to use an excuse such as this (disarmament) to expand (because they already have significant presence at the old Entebbe Airport under the UN umbrella) or simply disregard the fears of other African states and just come and set up because they will say Ug invited them. This is not just obama’s policy but it is the “Powers that Be” who have wished it. (And with increased Chinese presence “the ball has to be set into motion”) It is some thing that has been thought about since Bush Sr days. May be Obama would have wished not to associate himself with an African strong man (remember his inauguration speech) but those powers that I mentioned pointed out to him that M7 is their man for now and he has to work with him. Even people like Johnnie Carson have been whipped into line. Remember he was wrote an article critical of M7 but now he is shying away from those very issues he pointed out when he has the power to act on them as secretary of African affairs. In the end what EAC nations should be thinking now is what increased American presence would mean to the region.
Spiderman – I don’t think the N Koreans want any war certainly their handlers, the Chinese don’t want it, not with the USS George Washington rolling into town. The Chinese know that any escalation of the situation would lead to the collapse of the North which could lead to a pro US government and they would ultimately be surrounded apart from the Russians in the north. China is actively dissuading North Korea from any more nonsense because even at this point further sanctions could lead to the collapse of the regime. Even with a million plus men, the north doesn’t stand a chance because so many people are tired of the sanctions. No one wants to leave in constant hunger (and this is what it may boil down to; the right to feed oneself). China does not feel like funding any wars because despite their recent economic boom, they are a tweak away from following the bankrupt European nations and in china’s case it could lead to a lot of civil disobedience because less than 30% of the Chinese have benefited from this economic gain. You know how uncomfortable US carriers make the Chinese but they are yet to protest this as they usually do. Trying to keep as much peace as possible yet on the other hand S.korea and the US see this as an opptunity to end North Korea’s existence or simply to put china on tenterhooks
@tororo
You are wrong about the situation in the yellow sea.
The mere presence of the george washington in the area should be seen as testing the resolve of the chinese and the north koreans…and of course the americans main concern is the presence of the 30,000 plus american soldires within deadly artillary range of the north korean missile placements.
THE north koreans have been preparing for war for years and they are willing to sacrifice their nation hood for this.
The chinese have the ability to take out the george washington and also the north koreans as well but if this happens the american will need to deploy all thier strategic assets to bombared north koreans who will not go down alone . they will unleash hell to the south koreans and maybe the japanese.
AT some point.the chinese and the russians will be called to bear.The point is the US has alot to loose and little to gain by stocking the war drumsin this region.
please use the link here to see how the north koreans have prepared for war ..
http://www.rense.com/general37/nkorr.htm
Spider – You would think that if at all the North Koreans stood a chance that the Chinese would let them have a go at it but that is not what is happening
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-china-korea-20101129,0,6088023.story . The Chinese are aware of what the North Koreans face and they know they won’t survive a full scale war. Just like the article you point me to says, despite being backers of the N.K both China and Russia don’t want a full scale war. Now resolve to action is a good thing but that doesn’t win wars. Remember Saddam also had resolve and had even fired a few missiles at Israel before but when war broke out the last time Saddam didn’t have a chance to launch any of his missiles. This actually reminds me of an event I was at about two weeks ago when someone mentioned about a new York times article where an American nuclear Physicist had just been shown an expansive nuclear facility by the North Korans, that’s when this pentagon colonel quipped of how they were aware of the facility and how it was not so much of a threat to them. He later on made a statement of how they could take out all these facilities before even the silos doors opened including the mobile batteries.
In my opinion actually this could be a not so tough engagement given that most North Korean military rather escape to china or Russia. The US could just lead the charge then leave the “mop up action” to the S.Koreans. See the Only kind of encounters where the US Military has a problem is when they are engaged in gorilla warfare. But when there is a clear dived of “Us” and “Them”, then the other side is definitely on the “receiving end”.
And we also know that the north may not want war but this has been always there way of bargaining for Aid. Well this time the South and the US are not interested in anymore talks (or at least that is what is being projected) and this is turning into a new field for North Korea and its allies.
YOU seem to have fallen pray to western media propaganda.
the north koreans are a diffrent stork when it comes to war thinking… that is why there is a stand off for more than 50 years..and each side is afraid of the other. you cannnot compare north koreans to the iraqis.the north koreans military disposition is such they know they will be facing a very powerfull enemy with no help….and they know that they have less than 24hours to 48 hours to cuse maximum damage and death to the south where we have over 20thousand us troops stationed within 5 to six minute artillary and missile range . you work out the mathematics …..an example wa just the other day…the south koreans fired 80 artillary shells and the north repinded with over 200 shells kiiling 4 people while the south killed none.
recently in the past a south korean warship attempted to stray into north korean disputed waters and it was promptly torpedoed and sank with a loss of 46 lives…so are you saying this is an enemy without resolve? wake up man ….the north koreans are not like iraqis and they can take anything theus throws at them…. remember vietnam? the usa dropped more bombsand missiles there than what the entire allies dropped on germany during the second world war ….but they still lost the war.
@SPIDERman,
I appreciate your comments about North Korean military preparedness, but like Tororo, i don’t believe they stand a chance in the face of a US onslaught. For sure they will inflict a heavy damage against an allied force of S.Korea and the US, but that will just be that. They will lose the war and be occupied. What is more, that will be the end of that country. All this Sabre rattling is in my opinion a call for attention. They will never risk a fight especially seeing that Russia and China may not be keen in aiding them.
Indeed, info from Wikileaks indicates that China no longer considers NK a reliable ally and would agree to a united Korea under Seoul. As for the conflict, conventionally the cannot win. But they DO have a nuclear capability and I reckon they WILL deploy it. Seoul is the most likely target. Whoever wins, a Pyrrhic victory it will be.
The North has onlly one and one war strategy – Samsonite Suicide to bring the entire house down on her head. The Amreicans know this well, as does everybody around the South Eas Asia. This extreme madness of national strategy is what has kept the Americans out of North Korea for fifty years despite their overhwhelming capacity to simply swat aside whatever defenses placed against them. The Cost of any war simply unthinkable by any democractic system. No winners in this thing, fellas!.
This is exactly my point.the stand off since 1953 so called amistice is too scairey even for the americans to try and escalate…as the human loss is too high to even contemplate for the USA itself.
By the way, the Big man of the Great lakes dropped in Mogadishu, and dragged a whole lost of us from our confort zones. What a messy thing this protocol was, just simply to make a poiltical statement. Shudder to imagine what would have happened has this been the sole preserve of the UPDF!! M7 determinedly pushing the transistion Government of Somalis to bilaterllay invite his muscled presence there and thereby circumvent IGAD. Interesting ahead in Kenyana.
hi guys, been wondering about something,
could the circus surrounding the wikileaks release of “secret” communications be DISINFORMATION par excellence? the content, extent and circus surroundng them seems too Holywood to me. Downloaded the whole set and wondering, is that how unsecure they store their info?
my2cnts.
That would be pretty weak disinformation. Each country, each individual would know the truth in their own case and would suspect the same disinformation for others. And we’d now be witnessing plausible denials en masse. Unless, of course, it’s a global conspiracy by the governments of the world intended to dupe all 6.5 billion of us ordinary folk. Or Evil Geniuses at work, heh, heh. Where’s 007 now?
been delving into the leaks, obviously as expected, Egypt explicitly declaring interest in a united Sudan (for obvious economic reasons), wondering it it might just end up being an arena for a proxy war with influence from within and without”
Quoting from 09CAIRO746 dated 2009-04-30 15:03, ¶8. (S/NF) Egypt is very concerned with stability in Sudan,
Soliman said, but asked for the U.S. to be “patient” with the
Sudanese government and give Egypt time to help the Sudanese
government deal with its problems. He applauded the
appointment of Special Envoy Gration and recent U.S.
statements on Sudan. Soliman said Egypt was focused on three
areas for promoting stability in Sudan: 1) repairing the
relationship between Chadean President Deby and Sudanese
President Bashir and stopping their support for each others’
insurgencies 2) supporting negotiations between the various
factions in Darfur, and 3) implementing the CPA. Soliman
encouraged a larger role for French President Sarkozy in
mediating between Chad and Sudan. He said that Southern
Sudan “feels no benefits from unity,” and Egypt is trying to
bridge the “physiological gap” between north and south itself
by providing humanitarian assistance. “Egypt does not want a
divided Sudan,” he stressed. Admiral Mullen replied that
Egypt’s leadership on Sudan was critical and looked forward
to increased cooperation between Egypt and Special Envoy
Gration.
Hello gentlemen:
It has been a while. After Areba’s comment, I had to ask:
What do you make of the cable that suggests Ethiopia isn’t enthusiastic about Kenya’s Jubaland efforts?
http://213.251.145.96/cable/2010/02/10ADDISABABA163.html
(You can copy and paste the link on your browser to read it)
and onto other developing news, seems the KN have permanently posted a vessel in my backyard… , seen a grey vessel flying a kenyan flag at the Creek here (kilifi) for a while now, rumour has it that it has to do with one alleged attack 8 nautical miles off the Kenyan coast by our brothers from across the Kenyana diaspora..
Let’s get a good grip on this nonsense of the Consular Ciphers stolen by Wikileaks now circulating in Civilian Media, that some are persuaded to take these stories as Gospel truths that are factual and real. To start with, these are merely extrapolations made by the Diplomatic Corps which rotates around a Civilian Component that is essentially Administrative, and a Clandestine Component that exits to interfaces with the Diplomatic Corps and the Hard Intelligence Outfits Civilian & Military. These Ciphers are not hard data, raw or refined, but reflections of Contacts made and Information gleaned without great probing, intended essentially to generate a reaction from the hard-line Spooks in the CIA and NSA, who would vet such extrapolations on the quantum of Intel in their Banks. In Kenya, for instance, a Consular Officer in Mogadishu is duty bound to report anything of remote importance(loosely defined) – contacts, rumor, meetings, sightings, paper-mill banter, anything no matter how innocuous and petty insignificant. He is not trained nor required to analyze such information beyond the cursory, and he simply adds his extrapolated view to give this info the color he saw it through his own eyes. Then, this is passed on to Consular Ops H/A where the trained and full-time / Consultant Analysts pore through it, and against already established parameters, they extract value, or redirect it back to the Consular Chap in-station, pass it on the Intelligence Pool ( both Military and Civilian), or discard the BS into some dark pool for later screening. Whatever “value” as is passed on is taken through thorough screening where each morsel is held up against several other morsels in the Intelligence Pool – eventually a factual picture emerges, and from this Intelligence Briefs are prepared and circulated on a need-to-know basis. Generally therefore, these Wikileaks Leaks on Consular Ciphers are essentially useless in terms of their capacity to indicate FACTUAL SITUATIONs PERTINENT IN ANY SECTOR, beyond the glimpses they offer on personalities in these sectors – which you must determine for yourself to what degree you will put stock in them. Now, the earlier Military and Intelligence Leaks by WILILEAKS on The Iraq and Afghanistan Conflicts are a different ball as they are reportage of refined data by Civilian and Military Intelligence Organisations which are primarily tasked to generated factual Intelligence for Circulation and Consumption by Policy and Execution Bodies of the USA. Consequently, I urge you to read these Consular Ciphers like a Le Carre Book and nothing more.
Thanks @ole,
Im wondering though, how about the leaks that came from the US to the consulates with instructions to the chaps in the diplomatic corps to raise with their host countries certain issues, isnt this solid information aimed at achieving certain goals? at least wouldnt it be valuable in getting a certain picture albeit half baked?
an example i would ask about is the issue of russia selling the S-300 s to Iran in which a couple of leaks indicate US exerting its diplomatic arm in countried it considered important to Russia to stop the sale…
But that is the raison d’etre for consular operations for any country, not least one with pretensions for greatness in the world scene. It is precisely what is expected of Embassy, to generate cursory insights into the personalities and activities of interest to their Home Country. Embassy are not essentially there to offer services to their Citizens, or to pass diplomatic notes back and forth, or to tag along on national holidays. Hell, they exist solely to project their National Interests in their host-country, and some do so by not so legal or moral means as these Wikileaks exposee manifests. Probably it would help to mention that Consular Operations are the primary Intelligence Gatherers of their Home-Country, but rather the Identifiers of what subjects, avenue, causes that require Sleuths and Spooks to dig into. In the USA, the Consular Operatives based in Out-stations report to both the Station Ambassadors, and the State Department HQ in Washington. The CIA and NSA component usually seconded to the Out-stations are out of the Hierarchical structures of Embassy and report directly to their Line Oversight in the Home Country. They get a lick at what Consular gathers, and offer their overview if they wish, and liaise with their Line Oversight and the Ambassadors in the event that situations require the Ambassadors to be enlightened on events and personalities of influence and importance in their Out-stations who might impact on the National Interests of the USA. It is very much the same in most countries that have pretensions to greatness, and in a small replication of our own arrangement. Bear in mind that disinformation and propaganda are a legitimate facet of Consular Operations of most countries, and both the Diplomatic and Intelligence components of the American Embassy regularly and with great efficacity utilize both of these in the furtherance of the National Interests of their Home Country. Also that rarely does any threat exists without a sting, specifically in the event that situation of extreme compromise such as we witness with the Wikileaks exposees appertain. Therefore my earlier caution about taking these as Gospel Truth.
THE DAILY NATION SHOULD know better than this….and stop this kind of spin. …as shown by this link..
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Leaked%20cables%20claim%20Kenya%20sent%20tanks%20to%20South%20Sudan%20/-/1056/1068242/-/kv4s81/-/index.html
the issue of who owns those T72 TANKS was resolved kitambo…and it seems the west was never happy that kennya was buying east hence the attempt to spin the south sudan link.
And yes this Wiki leaks fool could not explain to the Ukrainians the authenticity of his supposed contract agreement.
Precisely brother Olekoima. The Americans are frantic in their damage-control, which includes using the media to blow as much smoke as possible using as authentic as possible ciphers that detract from those that reveal the full rot of their perfidy. It is a clever reversal of this Wikileaks sting, which seems to be working very well. See how controlled the new leaks are, and see how diverse their targets are, how controversial in their choice all designed to make this as murky as possible. A good counter-sting requires simply basing your legend as much on the truth as possible without giving too much away, and this is what the Americans are now doing with these new exposes. They are the masters of this game, after all.
These activists pretending to be probing ‘scandals’ in the military should cease forthwith. They are jeopardizing our National security. No country ever probes her military. There are secrets we must learn not to share with the enemy. Of whose benefit are these probes?
Of course countries probe their armed forces.
As an example: after the Canadians did their 1992 stint in Somalia, the Elite Airborne Regiment was disbanded when a public inquiry discovered that they beat a teenager to death and covered it up.
Legitimate operational details should be kept secret, but when something is against the law, then the public must know.
@ Mwistar. 1. Even a village lynching is a court-of-sorts. 2. No personal freedom is absolute, and must be held up against greater good. 3. the need to know must apply in all cases, as not all demands are benign. 4. whaddya mean ” the public needs to know?” which public are you meaning? The Caucasians have coined this amorphous appellation “international community” to mask a racially-defined membership through which they pontificate clearly self-serving racial policies globally. Is the reading elite in Kenya borrowing a leaf from this sanctimoniously loud so-called International Community?
AISESHH!!!! i knew these tanks were in kenya but not for the reasons outlined by wikileaks. here…YAANI for how long have we been hoodwinked?
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/How%20Kenya%20was%20left%20stranded%20with%20tanks%20meant%20for%20S%20Sudan%20/-/1064/1069476/-/s0n4ukz/-/index.html
For SPLA, 110 T-72’s would be just a waste of money and a provocation. The Americans were 100% right.
One of the few worthy pieces of information from what is largely WikiGossip.
The Americans were NOT right, Mugwiira. It is amazing how quickly we are repeatedly duped by the Americans, and that they have a preponderant propensity to disinformation is hardly an excuse, in my view. Simply by their stating a position, nor by producing a Satellite Photo, does not make the outlandish allegations the credibility of a Gospel – at the most these assertions by the Americans raise more questions than they answer, as was evidenced by the incredulous reactions of the Ukraines which the American crudely swatted aside – they were unwilling to validate their Satellite Photo by indicating the usual source, times, telemetric orbit, support photos and Hummit eyes-on validation. Satellite imagery is manipulable, especially the digitalized types in use today, which is the reason for their being inadmissible in Criminal Courts the world over; the Americans have been used this technology countless times to build up a case for the politicos that prosecuted their stated stand-point of the Military and Intelligence Outfits – some recent cases in point are the North Korean Nuclear Enrichening Plants, the Iranian Centrifugal plants that are now acknowledged were conjured by the Military/Intelligence to justify Iraq-type invasion , and even earlier the alleged of MWD in Iraq. I have seen Satellite Photos, which surfaced prior that Meeting with the American/Ukraines, which showed five MBT just past Kitale area clearly on their way to a FOB in North – hundreds of Kilometers from the Sudan Border. In the next days, out of sanction American Operatives( a good number in soft postings in East Africa!), a gullible or/and malleable Media, and client-governments will all fall in line to build up an intricate disinformation web to help the Americans limit the potentially debilitating damage probable from this serious security breech by Wikileaks. I urge caution in the manner of a wise old African taking his snuff a sniff-at-a-time!!
Hi. Have been a bit busy recently, but haven’t gone anywhere.
In the humor section, some pieces of advanced military technology from those Shabaab fellows:
1) The world’s first combat ATV.
http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/10/21/5329457-if-al-shabab-held-a-photo-op-would-anyone-come
2) My favorite: the Strela tube without the missile and the launcher. A very deadly weapon in close combat. lol
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2010/11/09/2010-11-09_growing_worry_groups_becoming_strongest_al_qaeda_force_we_have_on_the_planet_som.html
I wouldn’t underestimate their leadership/intelligence capability, but from the military standpoint the Shabaab are a no-force. AMISOM & others should be ashamed.
@ Delta4 – I stand by my comment. No place for T-72’s in Southern Sudan. Not today, not tomorrow, not in 10 years would they be able to deploy and support a dedicated armor force.
This would only provoke the North. Good enough the North can’t put up a real fight either, they’re too fat and lazy due to their hydrocarbon-heavy diet. They just source out the fighting part to the Janjaweed and Kony.
blogers
please ignore the post on ACAMPO and ICC on the kenyan leadership.
my inquiries so far indicate those arrest warrants are fakes and it is only a clever internet scam to cause anxiety in some quarters…
ACAMPO TO ISSUE ARREST WARRANTS FOR RAILA,RUTO AND UHURU KENYATTA
http://nipate.com/wikileaks-icc-warrants-of-arrest-for-the-kenya-pev-case-t1397.html
blogers
please ignore the post on ACAMPO and ICC on the kenyan leadership.
my inquiries so far indicate those arrest warrants are fakes and it is only a clever internet scam to cause anxiety in some quarters…
Reply
am buffled by the intrigues about the T72 tank saga,who is fooling who in the leaked cables?
Whatever it is, arming Southern Sudan also represents a good strategic thinking which is in our best interest and that of the region as well. I reckon the northerners will not let go of the southerners without a fight. Some sort of deterrence is therefore desirable in this case.
That said, i still have my doubts about the destination of the T-72s contrary to what the Wiki leaks say. That is just an opinion of the US ambassador.
WAPI that ole nekari to answer this?
http://nipate.com/south-sudan-tanks-t1488.html
Postby alehandro » Wed Dec 15, 2010 4:40 am
i recall this issue being raised in The Nairobi Chronicle blog. Yet this new twist of events courtesy of wikileaks, (which I believe is at rue representation of things going on..based on their past track record with issues like the Afghan war) shows us that Indeed There’s an arms race going on in Sudan
Bwana Ole Nkarei, you said, with much conviction that these Tanks were ours, and idea I found to sound rather dubious, seeing as Kenyan military has predominantly had a look west direction with regards to training and hardware…It would not make sense to acquire soviet era tanks.
But all the same, these new revelations make it seem that;
-You are intent on spreading misinformation with regards to Kenya’s Military capabilities
-You could be In the military but not in the Know
-You are Not even in the Military after all as Claimed.
Talk to me ‘major’
alehandro
Level: Untouchables
Posts: 5
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@scoobydo/ alehandro – Whassamata with you? Can you not exercise some intellectual independence? What makes my statements on these matters falseful propaganda when held up against these Wikileaks gossips? Is it my colour and location? Reminds one of the Rich Man and Lazarus story in the bible, that even if Moses was to return to life, they would still have stoned him to death with their skepticism and disbelief!! Anyway, believe what you choose, free country and all that; I reckon I have said more than enough on this matter and with insistent consistency, if truth be said. Even if the damn T72 imploded right in the middle of Kenyatta Avenue at NOON, there will be still some hazy chaps holding their breaths, looking over their shoulder until they should read some white man’s “authentification” the simple naked fact right in their faces! Eeiish!
“D” where you been?
Habari zenyu wote 😀 dont you just love Christmas?If your CO is in a good mood, you get R and R away from the harsh jungle realities. Anyway looks like the T-72 saga is the flavor of the season. I dont believe anyone in Kenyan Uniform would support this Southern Sudan story. The things have been doing exercises with infantry units all year…..7th bttln in October, 5th and 3rd between Nov and Dec. If you are armor or infantry and you dont know this then probably you have been AWOL for a long time.
“D”
its good to hear one lone voice on this saga.lets hope we shall get to the bottom of this soon
wikileaks is further saying the chinese are helping kenya with intel gathering equipment.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/249097?intcmp=239
Spidey, that the Chinese are doing and much more, not a death-bed secret, really. Nothing wrong with this, except that it knocks out the Brits and Uncle Sam from the our Web and makes their penetration much more of a job. Then, we can “spin” some, and “turn” some, and which then makes Brits and Uncle Sam madder than a hatter, as the saying goes. The game is simple and straightforward – CONTROL! That the Chinese have vested interests in “getting in” our Intel Web is obvious, but neither any more selfish than the determination by the Old West to stay in our Intel Web. Just look closely at the Map of Greater East Africa (Kenyana?) and then let your mind float abit seing the possiblities fast-forwarded twenty years. People, take the blinkers off, for crying out loud!!
Interesting one by the Ching Huangs here….
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-492804/The-uninvited-guest-Chinese-sub-pops-middle-U-S-Navy-exercise-leaving-military-chiefs-red-faced.html
I wonder what that means now….
The chinese have never been happy the way american tend to come to the yellow sea..carry out parols with south korea and japan at wil.
They have developed means to take out even the american carrier using land to sea missiles from a range of up to 900 miles. so having the ability to sneak in a submarine in the middle of a battle group is in practicle terms a wake up cal for the americans.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/08/05/ap-enterprise-chinese-carrier-killer-missile-raises-concerns-pacific-power/
EVEN the RUSSIANS HAVE never gone that far.. they usually keep a safe distance even though they have deadly airccraft carrier killing ability.
if you mean the badgers and the blinders then i highly doubt the Russian aircraft killer capability. I think it’s time Victor Popov issued an urgent RFP for new bombers or requested PVO to adapt the monster Tu-160 for maritime strike role.
Considering that and the fact that at some point this year the chinese did another audacious take-out of a satellite 500plus miles in space means that anything satellite controlled (UAVs, etc etc), does not have an advantage in a war with china.
Is the scale tilting or has it tilted?
The americans are not happy at all..why do you think they are offering india to buy american bonds at discouted rates?.. they are trying to undermine the chinese currency just because the chinese hold about 3 trllion us dollars in bonds.
Obama went to india and got about 10 billion dolars worth of deals from indians.. then the chinese prime minister drops in last week and he gets 16 to 17 billion dolars worth of deals..
the chinese are sending the USA a mesage that whatever you can do we can match it…. remember also was it this year that the chinese managed to seize and route nearly half of the entire global internet traffic through thier state controllled servers for a few hours before any one noticed…
IS this not terrorism? when will the authorities wake up in kenya?
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1076118/-/cjwy3az/-/index.html
@ole nkarei
i was surprised to see your comment on the capital fm news blog..surely i hope your comment was not serious..
Hey Spidey,take it easy bra. Just trying to show my exasperation with the quality of some of these insidious gossips couched in tones to make appear to be gospel-truth. Martial justice for chaps of Kiapo. Pole bana!!
Hello guys,
Is this for real? and guys still claim this somalia piracy is not an industry that has grown its own life? Im shocked by this..
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/where-the-somali-pirates-attack/article1851376/?from=1851371
GOT THIS CRAP FROM ONE OF THIS FUNNY SITES IS THIS INFO TRUE OR KWAIDA WISHFULL THINKIN GOSSIP…Well..I cannot continue with the diecussion if your
source of information is cheap wikipaedia info available to every one on the street…you should look @ websites dealing with serious analysis.and think tanks…..I agree that Kenya has not had any Major engagements ..but that doesnt make it weaker..since I have some insider info..I can tell u that our Military planners never look at Ethiopia as a Major threat…rather it is Sudan to some extent.and the likes of wiki have so scarce info of the equipment…..our MBT is no longer that vickers..rather it is chalenger ..even the recent purchase of 14 chinese built ze9 thelicopter Gunships is not detailed..Also missing are the last tank acquistions (American M1 Abrahams- about 73–and we are the few African operators of this Tank and we r getting more)…The recent T-72 are South sudan’s(kenyas “9th province”)not Kenyans..we dont use any Russian weapons.We use american and British…If Ethiopia was thrashed by Somalia till they had to call foreign Help…and they cannot deal with a small country like Eritrea..will they face the Muscle of kenya??..Remember that In such a scenario..our war Budget will stretch to $1.5-$2B and that will mean a vicious onslaught of 400+ tanks and 60-70 fighters for airpower and more missiles and of course the troop numbers will be raised to at least 150K-200K from current 53K…so..I am not like beeing stupid but I am just giving you some insider info of the type of the type of firepower around here…Having a huge population doensnt necessarily translate to military results because its not the population fighting..Ethiopia is superpower in terms of population and that only…Not economy or military (which is tied to economy)..
well, well mr. AK. please enlighten us gossipers on some hard military facts. we seem to be short on that this days. while you are at it, can you confirm that we have an ICBM regiment operational working from under some hill(or is it mountain?) in Gilgil?
If there is anything that makes me sick its the way we are easily fooled by uncle sam. How can we believe that they have finished dealing with their problems so as to come and help with our agenda?Why do they monitor every small thing we do, even launching a simple bore hole. Then what kills me is rumour mongers who cause stalemates like the one concerning our jasiri toy. That is why mwalimu mati’s face makes me vomit, any way, u never know who used him. By the way do you agree with Confessions of an Ecomonic Hitman by John Perkins. I fully agree
please read the book
I got drafted in2 the G2 n my 1st assignment put me up north but now am back 4 late new year R n R b4 the big day on sunday….wat???we ave ICBMs now??personally ive never been in the ‘hill’ but why have that kind of arsenal?beats logic.sorry AK mate but we also dont ave the Abrams n those T-72 do not belong 2 S.S. this site is still ripe with disinfo and misinfo.i hear the chinese stealth prototype has been sighted in flight.amj tracking down the links and hopefully ill post it by the end of the day.However people remember a clever person believes half of what he hears, a wise person knows which half to believe.
“D” usijali na hiyo story ya ICBM’s, im just trying to make this site live up to it’s rep as a rumour mongering site.
I’ve seen pics of the chinese stealth somwhere, can’t remember exactly. bears remarkable resemblance to the F-22 raptor. Kilo Alfa has been very busy of late huh? 77 naona have just finished their training ops. i assume it was a service wide exercise.
That we Have abrahams is a joke.hiyo ni upuzi bure kabisa.
about the T72 western media including aljazeera are still posting doubts that those tanks were kenyan.look at this news clip by one reporter from aljazeera whom i particularly dont like..
About the hills of gilgil all i know is that there used to be a heavy weapons storage damp for massive highly destructive bombs etc some dating to the days of the british army… there for public safety purposes. in case of an accident..the explosions will not harm the public.
Even though the hills form an ideal place to put up a surface to air missile battery i am not aware if any has been put up there.
“D”
many greetings …please enlighten us about the position o f the T72av ..since last time i checked..the heavy armour boys were busy training in them around isiolo and marsabit areas of kenya..ane yet rumors persist that these tanks are not kenyan.
ANY WAY about china they have already begun testing their 5th generation fighter much earlier than the western analysts predicted and even the USA pentagon analysts are surprised.
More recently in the percific a chinese diesel powered submarine was able to pop up unexpectedley in the middle of an US naval exercise which included a carrier group UNDETECTED..
use the link to see about the test and also i will post the link about the submarine next
http://www.defense-update.com/products/j/29122010_j-20.html
what’s with the conventional exhausts? i thought the were supposed to be built so as to reduce radar return. i hope the Chinese will rectify this before serial production begins
http://www.tampabay.com/incoming/article1144307.ece?nsm=true
The link here about the chinese submarine surprising a US navy during exercises RECENTLY..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-492804/The-uninvited-guest-Chinese-sub-pops-middle-U-S-Navy-exercise-leaving-military-chiefs-red-faced.html
Happy New Year to everyone!
I have never stopped thinking about the T-72 saga and I must say that the Wikileaks cable has not really cleared things up.
Many have taken the cables to mean that the whole consignment was for South Sudan.
However, the cables don’t say that. That is the ambassador’s (Ranneberger’s) opinion, but the only thing he had factually discovered is that Kenyan officials “hinted” that the tanks may end up in SS and insisted on keeping that option open.
Further to this, I have no evidence that SS would be able to effectively deploy the T-72AV’s, but I know that Kenya would, and is working in that direction.
What this makes me think is that the T-72’s going to SS is just the upper layer. The lower layer is that even in SS, these tanks would probably be operated by the Kenya Army, which means that Kenya has been preparing to DIRECTLY – even if DISCRETELY – intervene militarily in Sudan.
If true, this may mean that Kenya is now officially SS’s #1 ally.
And that things may very suddenly become very tense in Sudan. Everyone has accepted the outcome of today’s referendum, but few have yet comprehended its long-term implications.
One can only guess, for instance, how a post-Mubarak Egypt will act towards what is essentially a US/Israeli trojan horse in its deep rear..
For once im inclined to agree with you, Mugwiira. How long does it take for a guerilla army to develop effective massed tank combat techniques? In South Sudan’s case, how long will it take to develop the same against a more organised and better equipped North? If the South has any illusions of victory then that thought in itself may imply help from allies either overt or covert. It is an open secret that Kenya regards S.S with special consideration and that may include, but not limited to, direct military intervention. That coupled with the recent combat exercises by Kilo Alfa units may just prove you right Mugwiira.
@Col, we appreciate the fact that this site has also been used more often than not, for propaganda and dis-info purposes. Let’s wait and see.
Mugwiira – that is one supposition that is so far-fetched as to be utterly without commentary. But again – that kDoD has formally and officially forward-deployed a Task Force of its Armoured Units into GoSS to operate the MBT on behest of SPLA/M in possible conflict with the Sudan? That KDoD has been suckered into National Commitment in a conflict that to all intents cannot be conventional nor short-term if it starts? That Misra and Libya have a probably axis with Bashir to prosecute a status quo? Hell, this would simply imply kDoD is translocated to Juba with alacrity making plans and preps for this anticipated War of the Sudans!! Outrageously unreal, impossible and downright unlikely!! And all this excited supposition because some newspaper cub-writer churns out this tired old scepticism about these 200-some Russian MBTs, without appropriate research nor validation? In the continuation of weaponry supplier-propaganda /disinformation wars? Let me debunk this notion that Kenya’s defensive doctrine has suddenly gone crazy into the realms you postulate – it would take a Kenyan Mengistu Haile Miriam (and the Cold-war realities at that) to effect this sort of Doctrinarian Posturing. Eeiish!! This Matrix just isn’t on any table now – might be a germinating idea with the usual suspects, but ….
I have no reason to think that Ranneberger’s cables are fake.
http://www.wikileaks.ch/origin/55_0.html
I also don’t see how such a tank force could be operated by South Sudan on its own.
The above is a hypothesis. It may seem outlandish, but what would be the better explanation?
For sure this T-72 tank saga is quite puzzling. I have seen clips of T-72 AV s with SPLM. The question is, who gave them these?
Something else,
The Chinese now have stealth capability in the form of their J-20 fighter which is a real rival to the US made F-22 raptor whose production has been suspended. Who said the US was light years away from competitors in terms of technology? Will Obama now reverse the freeze on F-22 production?
In fact one such clip for the T-72s has already been posted by SPIDERman above.
Aw C’mon Mugwiira! Surely you don’t intent to have us all believe that the Gospel of Truth is American? In the Benevolence of America? This would be simply too fantastic a proposal in my view. We live in this real world in which American repeated perfidy and rape of our common humanity is evidenced daily and in a multiplicity of locations throughout the past century and into this present one. Moreover, we study American Philosophy, Doctrine, Methods, Culture, etc, and work directly and indirectly with her Government Officialdom as America projects herself into our Common Humanity. Simply put, America will and must cloth the truth in terms that serve American interests – Period!! And particularly poignant today, when America considers and believes herself under siege, in combat with a deadly mortal unseen enemy!! These Cables serve the American Interests only, and in this American cause, the Truth is relative! One would have to be very selectively cautions as to miss the inherent whining about losing influence and pre-eminence to the Chinese that is deftly interposed in these negative allegations in these cables which you seem to put so much truth-stock to. You are American, as I recall, and your tasking in this part of the world and interests in Geopolitical developments of this region is intriguing not least to myself. Luckily for me, I do have privileged benefit of knowledge both raw and refined on these matters that clears the smoke, illuminates these issues beyond the painted picture American seeks to project. I repeat – there is no truth to any assertions by anyone that GoK is deployed in deterrent force in Sudan. The KA activities that Jasiri alludes to, as well as the elements of kDoD on aggressive Recon-in-force and G2 activities in GoSS, and embedded NCO cadres in SPLA on basic and Unit leadership training, are legitimate necessary reactions to the fast evolving Threat Matrix projected by the unlikely renewal of general conflict in the Sudan. Guys, take this freely proffered American Intel with the cautious trepidation of a sage African Nose Tobacco sniff!!
Col, never mind Sudan! What would you think of an Ivory Coast deployment?!
http://www.afriquejet.com/news/africa-news/cote-d'ivoire:-odinga-insists-gbagbo-must-step-down-2011010666398.html
Of course, that’s just talk, but still too much IMHO..
. Not gonna happen. Just hot air, this sabre rattling. The entire region very delicately poised at this moment in time, such that external Military Action risks degenerating into a widespread conflagration that engulfs whole states in endless, mindless violence. Such a political decision for a large-scale deliberated tasked, equipped and led invasion force by ECOWAS is not forthcoming no matter the noises you should read – and Gbagbo knows too well. So, while the sanctimonious Western Regime-change proponents have sorely desired to insert their Military in such an enterprise, obviously preferring Quattara for their own National Interests, their Military Intervention should have to be masked by an ECOWAS Military deployment in-force. This situation is compounded by the unsurprisingly blind recitation of the Western Position by the AU interlocutor Raila Odinga and his unrealistic militant call to negotiate with a clenched fist of threatened Armed action. Secondly, the demographics dynamics of Cote D’Ivoire of a nation equally shared in population and land-size between the two protagonists, when considered with the results of this contested Elections in which an the Votes that Quattara pegs his supposed Victory being only 300-thousand and including that credible allegations of electoral fraud have been advanced by both protagonists as to render this result contestable, any armed intervention would inevitably be alternatively welcomed and detested, with the results that Civilians would bear the blunt of Military action – driving the two sides inexorably further from each other. RO is further discredited by his hasty pronouncements on this matter, and received little attention from Gbagbo and his allies during his last visit there. This is likely to again prevail further RO astonishingly ill-advised meeting the American, Canadian, British and EU Diplomats yesterday ostensibly to brief them on his last jaunt but more likely to be briefed /instructed on the position and proposals of the so-called ‘’International Community’’!! Had Mr. PING of the AU been in attendance at this meeting, some credibility would still have been salvaged. Eiish!!!
Raila odinga met gbagbo in person
gbgabo was wiiling to negotiate…but uattaras
is being difficult.
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/slideshow/photo//110103/ids_photos_wl/r3364115574.jpg/
RO met Gbagbo alright, as protocol would demand for a visiting rep of a friendly country and envoy of an umbrella organisation AU. He did noithing else, being dismissively tagged as a larkey of the West, and taken frequently to task for his initial unsolicited ill-timed call earlier for an Armed Eviction of Gbagbo and forceful installation of Quattara. For this reason, he returned home earlier than expected, empty-handed. Now, he returns there with a Western ultimatum to Gbagbo,which I expect will be just as dismissively treated by the Gbagbo Camp. RO carries no new proposal to a peaceful resolution, while lacking as well the means to make good these threats from American, Britain, Canada and the EU. Quattara’s intransigence to negotiations is informed of his frustration that he must depend on external forces and the insidious threat to re-ignite Civil War so as to prosecute his claims to the Presidency. But as time goes without tangible result,thereby entrenching Gbagbo’s hold and legitimacy to power, Uattarra will mellow, and will seek accommodation of sorts, with Gbagbo.
and power sharing becomes the norm in Africa. Well said Col.
china flies its first stealth fighter with gates in the country,
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/01/11/china.stealth.gates/index.html?hpt=T2
@ole nkarei
IAM surpised that you seem to suport gabbagebo..and why do you as well seem to think or want RO to fail?..the election commission and all election monitors announced the results that uattara was the winnner …GABBAGEBO uses his crony packed suprem consitutional court to overturn the decision….a stand off ensues..and of course the civilised world /ecowas will back the man annouced by the organ that run the elections because that is the legitimate thing to do.therewas no evidence of cheating like we have seen in kenya and zimbabwe..
ARE you one of those that sees negativity in all that RO does or what?..do you know what else? RO will be the preffered trouble shooter for africa and elsewhere..he is being propped up for bigger things by the power brokers including uncle sam…many will not like it but will have to learn now to live with it…even though i am abit skeptical ..but as a kenyan i suport A FELLOW kenyan when they are working for the forces of good this time around.
the net effect of all this high profile engagements may be very negative on the image of RO. He always seems to tow the western line, Mugabe, Gbagbo e.t.c He strikes me as one willing to serve the whims of the master to acheive greatness among the serfs. Usually such people rule with unparalleled brutality. I shiver when i imagine Kenya under him.
I shudder at the thought of western influence on our affairs again. The west never means well for us. They are always keen to protect their interests. Besides, we are to them monkeys in a very dark continent capable of nothing good. To hell with the west.
Well, i would like as a fellow Kenyan to wish Raila well in his effort to bring sanity back in Ivory Coast. That said, i think the prospect of a military success in the Ivorian crisis are far too remote. In this i’ am inclined to support Col. Ole Nkarei’s sentiments on the dangers of using force.
Separately, as the US plans major cutbacks in military spending, the Chinese are forging a head ferociously and may soon catch up or even overtake the US. Our leaning East might pay dividends after all.
I dont give two hoots about the fates of RO nor of any other Politicos. My personal dislikes of RO would not colour my assessments of his actions, Spidey, you and I know darn well that I am not paid nor tasked to make political statements nor to corrupt my opinions with partisan politicaal considerations. My concern is what results for Kenya from what these Politico do, and even that from a Martial point of departure – period. My present preoccupation is an entity called Kenya, with which I am kinda intimately involved with. Granted this forum doesnt pay my wages, but surely I would be short of my obligation if i made comments here that lacked dispassionate content. On matters such as these, where chaps are likely to go crazy expotulating all manner of opinions, i chose to give me two-cents, holding brief for no one least of all for your favourite politician! Man, even Christ took daily criticism – why wouldnt you stand an opinion that is critical of this fella anyway??
Guys,
There is a lively debate going on at a site created by one Mr Andre and which is called the East African user board. Feel free to visit and share your thoughts. Former blog mates like Risasi are there too.
I have visited sites created by Vitruvian and SPIDERman too although these have taken off rather slowly and contributions have been far between. We could all support such sites.
Had to go under again sorry bout that but mnajua when duty calls.Anyway lets start with the T-72 thing.True there are T-72 AVs in SS however if anyone has the fortune to meet one of these monsters (highly unlikely though)You will notice 2 peculiarities.
1. They dont fly any colours known 2 belong to any amoured batallion in Africa. Not the armored branch (they dont have the strength 2 form a battalion) of Garangs boys or the colours of the 82nd which KA designated the T72s.
2. The tank crews though dark n tall arent SS. These guys cant speak a word of Dinka to save their mothers lives. Weird but true.
We also have to think about the logistics of moving over 100 heavy MBT over flat terrain with minimal cover without detection. Its impossible. Even in WW2 the Germans couldnt move half that number of tigers without the allies being in their business and mind you Europe is mostly forested and there were no satellite surveillance to worry about then was there?Speaking of sats so far the only ‘satellite’ photos shown have been grainy and could have been taken anywhere with a similar terrain (my guess, Ethiopia or Yemen) I mean how do you differentiate sudanese (or Kenyan) sand from that of the middle east from low pixel sat photos?Catch my drift men?
Now to the gentleman Assange…..heard anything of him lately?And how convenient is for Uncle Sam that a genius who cracked the pentagons firewall n has the power to read anybody’s mail is to be felled by a simple rape case…….from hookers!!!!!who the hell rapes hookers??not Assange, the guy gets paid millions by God knows who to cause havoc in cyber world.
I will not talk about ICBMs and Abrams….just not worth gettin court martialed for improper use of military equipment over such topics.
Till i can break the uniform code of conduct again gentlemen, i hope i have been enlightening
Watch it, mate! Men-out-there and all that! Things are gonna hot-up after seccession is begun. Lotsa complicated ops’ running in prep, so need to terrain-following fly this GoSS thing under 50feet!! Tafadhali!! Enjoy your R & R before you rotate out again.
But nyi watu! Kwani people think we are how daft yaani. Ebu imagine going all the way to Jordan, taking some well enlightened afandes like the ones we have, to buy junk f5s. hahahahaha that can’t even fly. ai asi! mwa. Sisi si mafala. Time will tell. Sorry for taking guys back to where it all started. I love this blog!
I’ve not visited this site for months. Let me use this opportunity to tell our Kenyan brothers this: talk is cheap. Put your money where your mouth is by sending a brigade to help us in Somalia. The earlier Somalia is stabilised the batter for us all. The very economic well being of Kenya and the larger EA region depends on it.
You can spend years praising your machines and your training but there is no substitute for experience and the ability give and take punches. on this Kenya has nothing to show.
And am afraid you will never have a chance to see your machines put to use. The times when countries faced off are long gone. For instance Uganda can never fight Kenya for any reason. We are so economically dependent on each other. Kenya exports most of her products to Uganda while Uganda needs Kenya to access the coast. When we begin production of oil Kenya will have more interest in how we conduct our affairs than you have previously had.
For now, all Kenya can do is polish and clean the guns, warm the tanks( a typical tank uses about 200 litres of diesel per week just for the scheduled warming), and of course, fly the planes during national functions – it creates a feeling like no other about one’s country, trust me.
Those of us who have known both war and peace can only envy the 40 years your country has had without war. The little we have achieved in 20 or so short years without war (at least in the south of Ug where I call home) make us look back at all the lost time with regret.
To all those to whom the bigger picture is lost in all these self congratulatory posturings, remeber this: Kenya, Uganda, TZ, Rwanda et al are are nowhere near the big boys. I would pay more attention if someone manufactured the weapons they are so proud to show their forces carrying.
We can only reach there through attracting investment by federating, even if only economically.
I guess it is in order if I propose a toast to East Africa and all those who see its potential.
Spartan, welcome back, brother. Been sorely missed. I will break out my cold Tusker Malt this evening and drink your toast with some colleagues. It is now openly confirmed that the DRC have formally prosecuted their application to East Africa for early 2014, that Ethiopia held elections last year as a precondition to consideration for membership late 2013, that the CAR have given indication of their wish to join up by 2015. GoSS is already sponsored by Kenya and approved by the Ministerial Council. Talk is that Norhern Sudan cannot survive well without GoSS and are considering following them into the EAC too. Eventually, even Somalia will join up probably as soon as 2015 after tiring of bloodshed and witnessing the upper semi-autonomous regions of Somalia increasingly benefitting from the unofficial member-status of the EAC they currently seem to be enjoying. No need then for a Kenyan Brigade to save your bacon in Mogadishu – all you gotta do is hold ground and avoid the usual braggadocio-type actions you are famous for – keep a lid on it, no conquests, no statements of muscle in Somalia, man!! I told you this very thing months ago!! And that Kenya shiny equipment /machines you write so deliriously about is what has resulted in the 45years of external peace for Kenya, buddy! Be assured that even as we make full-steam efforts to marry with you, we conversely will continue to make all plans to annihilate any and all threats possible from you! Name of the game, is all!
I wish you all the luck in your planning for ‘threats’ from Ug. With all the time you have on your hands, it doesn’t surprise me to read all the idle speculation that guys on this blog have. If I were you I would devote more time to planning for scenarios that can result from the large Somali population and the porous border between Somalia and Kenya.
Now, don’t credit your equipment for saving your asses coz it didn’t. the one time you had a chance to use that equipment was in 1998 when Somali gunmen surrounded a barracks near the border and disarmed 400 soldiers. Man, the entire unit would be court martialed in any country on earth. What happened? I remember Pres Moi giving the gunmen an ultimatum and nothing else.
On the other hand, your reluctance to use force has stood you in good stead on a number of occasions. But it won’t for long. As long as Kenya isn’t the target for Islamic extremists you guys are comfortable with your feet on the table and have time to draw all scenarios of all manner of threats that can come from Ug. Someone tell me, what is this Kenyan obsession with M7? I’ve lost count of the times he’s mentioned here. May be you should try to find out why he’s considered a more reliable ally in the region at your expense.
On the EAC, I am not interested in a federation with CAR, North Sudan, DRC. I mean, would the region still be called East Africa when it stretches from the Indian ocean to the Atlantic? We should just allow in South Sudan and no one else.
On marrying our women, go ahead brothers. Personally, I also like Kenya girls but am afraid they can’t make good wives so i can only go so far with them.
I would like you to tell me what you think of Tz as a potential threat to Kenya because, if you put our rivalry in sports aside, Ugandans are more friendly to Kenyans than the Tanzanians.
As for us, we will maintain a force that can rise to any occasion in this region but unlike you, we aren’t burning any candles over a threat from Kenya. We leave that to idle intelligence and military planners who have to justify their huge budgets for a country that is not at war. Seriously, even when UPDF is deployed in DRC, South Sudan, Somalia and CAR our budget can never come close to Kenya’s. Ole Nkarei, you must be very well remunerated fellows
Hey Spartan,
Good to hear from you again. Indeed you have spoken like ten people. We need such a spirit for the EAC and like you say, may be we should only concentrate all our rivalries to football and nothing else. We are brothers and sisters and very much need one another after all.
You are quite right on the bit about TZ. Tanzanians really dislike us Kenyans. This is not the case with the Ugandans though. In fact i’ am much more at home with Ugandans.
And huh, we have such a large military budget in peace time. So big as to even dwarf Ethiopia;s who have issues with Eritrea.
@ Ugandan Spartan
Kudos to you my Ugandan brother. You raised some very good facts.
That Kenya should deploy soldiers to Somalia if the Kenya army is as good as it claims to be is very true.
The fact that Uganda has the balls to deploy the UPDF to combat the dreaded Alshabaab while other Countrys cower away truly shows Uganda leads the pack while the rest follow.
I know this Kenyan army. All it knows is to beat its chest & claim that its the regional power but when an incident occurs which threatens Kenya, soldiers hide behind their mothers skirts.
Kenyan soldiers have only seen combat in American movies. This so called soldiers spend most of their lives in the barracks drinking beer, eating nyama choma, fighting over women & fleecing public funds.
First of all, Corruption will destroy the army if something is not done to check on it. Why should Kenyans bribe their way into the army? Why should DoD officials make corrupt deals with over seas suppliers for the army to procure mitumba military hardware?
The Kenyan military is a disgrace. They are only good at terrorizing Kenyans. Whenever they are deployed to suppress militias threatening national security, they rape & torture innocent Kenyans like what they did @ Mt Elgon while eliminating the SLDF militia.
This sophisticated state of the art military equipment Kenya army claims it possesses is all hullabaloo. The fact that Kenya purchased 20 yr old 2nd hand F5’s while the Kenya Airforce’s previous fleet had seen better days confirms this.
Like Ug spartan has said ” TALK IS CHEAP. KENYA SHOULD PUT HER MONEY WHERE HER MOUTH IS BY DEPLOYING TROOPS TO SOMALIA TO SUPPORT UG & BURUNDIAN TROOPS IN COMBAT. Whats good of an army that does not fight?
The purpose of an army is to defend its Country not decorate.
I would like to commend the General Service Unit. & The Administration Police for out shinning the Kenya army on security operations.
Kenya Army mko down to sana. An army of cowards.
@ Kashujaa and Spartan, i think you people should understand that deploying to Somalia is not as easy as it sounds. There’s a UN, AU & IGAD resolution that expressly forbids any country neighbouring Somalia to deploy it’s troops within Somalia. That’s why djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya CAN NOT deploy within Somalia with a legal mandate.
The ultimate aim of the Kenya Army in Somalia would be to form a government that is recognised by both the people and the U.N. How can you achieve that when you deployed illegally? Let the U.N rescind it’s orders and then call us cowards. The U.G army itself knows that more than once they have been saved by K.A units operating within Somalia. Our intell network is in tip top shape and it’s this that is saving the AMISOM a***s in Som. Kashujaa if you are a kenyan then it pains me to imagine what has become of our civies.
PS: The man with the most wounds may not necessarily be the most ferocious fighter.
This is no good…it may or may not confirm some of our worst fears…
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Military%20faulted%20over%20graft%20as%20House%20sessions%20resume%20/-/1064/1092014/-/6qsk3s/-/index.html
Aw come on Spider. Has the poisoned/polarised political realities in your home-country escaped your usually sharp attention? And do you reckon you’d have been impressed J K if your Intel Sit-rep briefs were founded on Newspaper reports and the pronouncement of Politicians? Let’s keep a balanced eye on this matter till credible info comes through, and it will for certain.
Hello guys and a happy new year. interesting to see media BS printed here as gospel truth. (Having interacted with raw footage and comparing with edited news casts, i am wiser in as far as media impartiality is concerned.). Ill leave the story of the russian Tanks and the F15’s at that. Maybe what the military chaps should tell parliament is … “hey, we would love to have a couple of F-16’s and while youre at it, the S400, here is the price list / quotation” The case in point being, if we want to be percieved as serious by friend and foe, lets get our act together, build a robust economy and “afford” the trappings therein.
onto serious matters though, My mind seems to have changed with regard to “friendship” or otherwise in the region. As someone put it to me a while back, we are not friends but neighbours, the two being mutually exclusive and our existence being just but because we cannot put the map of africa and move somalia to west africa, southern sudan to central africa and all.
Which means that in everything we do, Kenyan interests (or ugandan interests if youre ugandan) far outweigh any delusions of grandoise from a “larger regional existence. Which means we need for instance to ….
work on the direct route to SS through northern Kenya and not UG.
work on improving transit route between KE and Ethiopia.
Work on (Seriously) Cheap energy. (Especially this).
and …
Develop KE as a manufacturing and commerce Hub. Cause the advantage we have as a maritime hub are just temporary. Our real asset is you, me, olekioma, ole nkarei and every other hard working kenyan.
True or false?
ACTUALLY am amazed at the way that general nkaisery turned politician has been quoted as saying on this so called upcoming saga.
Patriotism is Best, but subverting justice is a direct opposite of it. Same courage we have that allows us to deploy unquestioningly we should have to admit that there’s corruption within the military. I love my country, I respect my army and it’s because of that that i say we tell it as it is. we can’t stand with each other just coz we trainned together because the common cause in the trainning is defence of the republic not defence of each other as we plunder the republic.
hypothetically speaking.
Areba, this has to be the thinking of the month. Pit we are not the policy makers.
Kenya army is corrupt period as many other institutions in our country and of course the citizens.
Now, wait a minute Jas. My inclination as a soldier is primarily informed by what I know first and foremost. I then work my way from that point on. I deal with known facts, not necessarily ‘hard’, but with some intelligent conjectured reasoning. High-sounding philosophy ain’t a benchmark of my primary soldiering though it may influence the colour in which I see these known facts. In the matter of ‘’Truth’’, this is really a superlative concept, as is ‘’Justice’’, which perhaps explains why so many intelligent persons seem to speak of both without immediate convergence of inference – why does ‘’Justice’’ in ALL Courts of Law require so much arguments between persons equally conversant with the tenets of it? I reckon that each dog simply has it’s role, and a Soldier’s is not philosophying to Society. My contention is that such lofty ideals as you postulate here of loyalty-to-Truth/ to-Nation, for a soldier, simply are just that. My immediate point of departure in my personal Loyalty and Honour is to my Unit, and this conversely flows then to the ‘’Kiapo’’-grouping –eventually this ‘’collective martial will’’ extends to Loyalty to the Nation – you cannot serve in a role that specifically calls upon you to excersise powers of life-and-death on the behest of a People with this argument being unsettled. IT IS NOT AN INDIVIDUAL CHOICE once you are ‘’Kiapo-ed’’!! That is not to mean that a soldier is a mindless, robotic entity, buddy. Far from it!! But to keep my eye on the ‘’Military Ball’’ so to speak, I must avoid capture by the varied Philosophy-based civil grouping. So I wait to see what facts will present themselves, without this hyperboles, innuendoes, and ludicrously obvious political Houdini-type propaganda surrounding this Military Procurements queries.
Hi guys, hope you’re all besti kabisa. Am not commenting on the graft probe of your parliament into the defence ministry procurements.I do not have the details. Where I come from we are taught one important principle: No Information, No Right To Talk. I would like to draw your attention to the shooting of three suspected robbers in Nairobi a few days back. Man, these police guys were really miffed. I mean, to do that in broad day light.
Am not saying that shooting armed robbers is bad. But couldn’t they at least take them where no one is watching and then report to base that the suspects had been shot while escaping? What if there were children in the cars watching? anyway, the international press is having a field day at our expense. I used ‘our’ deliberately because self righteous whites do not make a distinction when a bad story comes from Africa. Check out this coverage in The Daily Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1349210/Plain-clothes-policeman-shot-men-point-blank-range-Kenya-street.html
Now, anyone who has ever been on a coverts ops should be very afraid of this kind of behavior by the police. Criminals are now very clever. They have been known to call the police with ‘tips’ about suspicious armed people in a civilian vehicle. What am saying is that if police shoot and ask questions later it puts at risk friendly forces in covert operations.
Bwana ole Nkarei, jechunge vizuri.
I dunno, Spartan. You’re either a very poor disinfo agent or a seriously frustrated dude. Or perhaps you erroneously equate the level of intellect of those participating here with your own.
I’m not sure Uganda should be gloating about extrajudicial killings in Kenya (which, incidentally, make the headlines because we have a free and thriving press). We do NOT need to go back to His Excellency, the President for Life, Field Marshal Al Hadji Doctor, VC, DSO, MC, Conqueror of the British Empire in Africa in General and Uganda in Particular to tip the scales against Uganda vis-a-vis state brutality. Kenya’s first sons do not roam the countryside slaughtering defenseless villagers indiscriminately, to emphasise but a single point.
Sort out your own mess, THEN come back and make a statement. It will be warmly welcomed.
Thanks Spartan, clearly you are by my left shoulder here. I take your advise seriously, indeed that is a stock-of-trade. Perharps you will allow me to point out that a control security ‘’Pass-Word’’ (for lack of a better acronym) is generically created by centralised Security computers at NSIS and circulated daily to every active Military and Civilian Units as they came into duty, in each jurisdiction particularly those where a multiplicity of Armed Elements are found such as in Nairobi or Kaskazini Mashariki. Thereafter each formation can make various variations of it, specific to the Formation, and in each formation different Outfifts can also make further variations, etc.to squad level. Strictly controlled and extremely secure, replaced several times daily to avoid compromise by hostiles and civies. I tell you it would be a very unlucky day that I will get shoot by friendlies while cruising along Uhuru Hiqhway or seating at Noon outside that Pub in South B with you kissing that illegal Tusker!! Anyhow, this killing turns my stomach, notwithstanding the credible collated hard-intel these guys are part of a close-knit cell of hit-men without-cause that a week ago attempted the assassination of the Shauri moyo Deputy OC. It is a serious matter when Cops face targeted specific terminal violence from faceless criminals, and the world over Cops reactively respond in-kind to send out deliberate messages of their ability to similarly criminal violence. Law enforcement is impossible under such anarchy, which is equally unfavourable to any well-led criminal outfit; both sides avoid unnecessary terminal violence in a bizarre unwritten pact between them. The Western world seeks to paint their neighbours in the worst possible light in a desperate/despicable attempt to perpetuate their false superiority of itself, so that an office messenger will sneer at you in London despite that your language and demeanour manifest your clear superiority of education and culturisation! Eeiish!!
Hello Vitruvian, you have a lot of vitriol in your words. I am tempted to believe your name within these pages stands for VITRIOL.. Anyway, I think you need to re-read my posting above. Am sorry if I sounded like I was gloating to you, but what I meant was that it was poor workmanship on the part of the police. Period.
I don’t know whether you’re a professional in the things I and ole Nkarei were discussing. You sure didn’t sound like one going by my first impression. You see,even the Amin guys who were so uneducated would not do that in public. People disappeared and turned up dead in the Nile.
Lest I forget, Kenya’s mess is our mess. Our fate is intertwined, as we learnt in the PEV of 2007. Although there’s little we can do to influence things over there. So my brother , when something bad happens in Uganda, don’t be like someone who sits idly by when a neighbour’s house is on fire. What happens in Somalia or to Uganda in 70s is nothing to pat yourself on the back about. I am sure Kenya’s fortunes would be much better if Uganda was a stable and less disruptive neighbour under Amin.
Did you really have to copy the line about the free press from the Daily Mail story. I had already read it Lol
Contrary to what is being sold in the press, this shooting was not random nor reactive, or spur-of-the-moment, neither senseless and uncontrolled. If it was my operation, I would have shadowed these guys for weeks, building a huge trove of intelligence about them – their associations, structure & organisation, leadership, numbers, motivation, financing, covers, equipment etc. By the morning I would give the take-down order along Langata Road, there is little else about these goons I would not already know. What would be left is to send a unequivocal message to their structure that I knew them, was coming for them, would be coming ‘weapons hot’ and not be taking prisoners. That morning, not one minute were these chaps off-grid from the minute they got up right up to the moment they are pulled off the Matatu, and these were picked specifically for the value their dusting would have. Such an order cannot be unilaterally of the unit leadership, but must be sanctioned from way up the Police Structure –make no mistake about this. Anyway, there will be a spiralling tit-for-tat extreme action on both sides for a couple of weeks, before matters settle, the end result being the savage and necessary slaughter and complete dispersal of this criminal gang.
The old days when we could covertly pass intel sunctioned by top SB brass…. sometimes from the direct instructions of the good old JK himself to carefully chozen police operatives so that they could act and eliminate carefully chozen danderous criminals are missed with nostalgia.. the late .Mr patrick shaw was one such usefull character who could operate beyond the relms of normal police procedures..to devastating effect..such that no criminal who got wind that shaw was on his case felt safe…most would chooze to disapear or keep away from crime…
my collegues and self were once seconded to shadow this legendary man during an operation for seven days and the things shaw could do and get away with those days ….you cannot do them today….which is a shame….because these days in kenya organized crime has reached a leve of sophistracation and ruthlessness that needs a robust reaction from the police forces.
even though i agree that the recent incident was poorly executed…
ole Nkarei, I agree with you totally but if i were the one planning this operation I would not choose Langata road for the take down, at least not when the melee has stopped a dozen cars behind me. I however feel for those officers because they were doing all this for the sake of the general public, which public now thinks the robbers were the victims.
Kenya and Uganda have a problem on their hands when you consider that there are so many arms in public hands especially among the pastoral communities.
Fear is a powerful motivator, you can rest assured that for the next few weeks that gang, if there are any members left, will lay low while its meeker members will abandon it for more honorable trades. Ops ‘Wembley’ had that exact effect on robbers in Uganda between 2002 -2004.
A bit of distraction men, http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/-/2558/1094366/-/item/0/-/mis5q3z/-/index.html potential solution to the Shabab? Mugwiira what’s your take on this.
looks like the thugs are hitting back ….
http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/Kenyanews/Police-say-no-time-to-negotiate-with-armed-thugs-11373.html
well there is no disciplined forces I admire like the Kenya armed forces.what does one need to do to join this force as a GSO cadet
Hi good people. what do you make of this Demostrations ignited initially in Tunisia and now in Egypt, Jordan and Yemen? How will the geopolitics of the middle east change or be affected?
gentlemen of a site on it’s death, i just had to reemerge to post this. while we are busy fooling around, the tall thin man is making hay. I’ve always held the opinion that we should watch out for this guy and that i still do. With an economically stable Rwanda a robust military will follow. what will this mean for Kenya? http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Rwanda%20in%2050%20year%20expansion%20plan%20for%20Kigali/-/2558/1101998/-/item/0/-/nofjx9z/-/index.html
I must say that this is quiet discrediting of our military. what would prompt UK to take such a position?
-The cable dated December 2, 2009, says that the UK counter-terrorism department did not trust the effectiveness of elite units within the Kenyan military-
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/UK%20wary%20of%20army%20in%20terror%20war/-/1056/1102614/-/14pkr3iz/-/index.html
@jasiri,
this is quiet an ambitious plan for Kigali but it is within reach. Rwanda even though landlocked still enjoys its position especially sharing the border with the rich Congo. However, I cannot rely on the political elite to achieve its human resource capacity. Kenya with it’s political ‘mess’ has an upper hand when it comes to the common man on the ground. The tall man has a good vision which must be bigger than him. The problem will be how his successors will run it.
@ 3D, the tall thin man won’t stop just coz his term ended. he’ll be a marionette controlling Rwanda behind the scenes. He’ll be the ghost of Kigali. I believe that with the almost fanatical support he has, he’s choices are guaranteed to be followed and effected by the mass for at least 3 more presidential terms. After then even if the plans derail, it’ll be too far ahead to stop the juggernaut. The best hing to do is to get our act together and effect a serious regime for once!
to other matters, i think the U.K just spit on the face of our elite troops. to prefer the A.P over the military is literary to say that the A.P are better than the army. Quite a statement I’d say.
@ Jasiri – apologies for the long delay in replying.
I don’t think the Iraqi “Sunni Awakening” COIN experience is relevant to Somalia. The no.1 element in the Iraqi strategy was to force the Sunni to realise that they can’t beat the Shia. The moment this was achieved, it became evident to the Sunni sheikhs that AQ in Iraq became a liability rather than an asset to them, and the jihadists were dumped.
These elements don’t exist in Somalia, so copy/paste won’t work unfortunately..
it seems Uganda has received first batch of her 4th generation fighters from russia
can any one tell me wat the chinese millitary personel about fouth of them doing at FOB mombasa,are they doing some up grades to f-5s which seems to hv permanent base in mombasa?
I think the F-5’s are now a permanent detached Maritime Patrol squadron. As for the chinese technicians, i think guys like Risasi, who left this site, can expound more
The Shabaabists, it seems, are no amateurs when it comes to PSYOPS:
..and the opposition is equally formidable:
http://www.wikileaks.ch/cable/2009/12/09DJIBOUTI1425.html
You may wonder how much of the officially sanctioned “news” from Somalia actually originates from MacDill AFB.
You guys may be interested:
http://shabelle.net/article.php?id=4010
Given the unprecedented support from both Ethiopia and Kenya, Barre Hiirale should have done much, much better in Beled Hawo this week.
This operation has stretched thin the Shabaab who had to defend in Mogadishu, Gedo and Hiiran at the same time, but on none of the fronts did the offensive really and truly succeed.
The pattern is also becoming too predictable which means the chances of success will diminish with each attempt.
http://www.criticalthreats.org/somalia/global-ambitions-analysis-al-shabaabs-evolving-rhetoric-february-17-2011 IMHO, any succesfull operation in Somalia will be heavily influenced by the Navy. It’s foolish to imagine the army completely ovewhelming the Shabab eith out naval support. The Shabab re-supply and escape fm the long coastline, failure to block this avenue may result in a protracted struggle that may wear our mobility trained army down.
Reports of a raid at the Mogadishu airport that left dozens dead. Can anybody confirm this?
http://somalilandpress.com/blogging-from-mogadishu-the-imminent-fall-18129
I think you are about a year late Mwisatr. This attack happened sometimes in ’10 if im not wrong.
You are right. In my haste, I overlooked the date on the post.
All in all, i am of the opinion that the K.A seize this opportunity and root out the Shababaist in one final mighty push into Som. Reason for this s that i’m not sure that we will be able to live with the Shabab should the TFG and the Ahlu-Sunna wa-Al Jamaa fail. Let’s take their threat of vengeance seriously
Al-shabbab is spent, depleted, and unfashionable. The Somali people are now well and truly war-won, have buried too many of their children and their hopes; the Al Qaeda extremist philosophy holds no attractions anymore, and neither does Al Qaeda. Hence both sides of this Somalia conflict now seem to be simply going through the paces, effecting motions without intentions almost like a pantomime of the same tired actors. I said this many months ago that the indoctrination of the Somali Refugees in Kenya through their assimilation in Kenya would eventually create them our partners in peace. And one sees this lack of energy and deathly intentions manifested by both the TFG and Al-shabaab in the present contact up Mandera – tis why kDoD has not engaged inforce nor tried to influence this Mandera dance lest we should start doing the dying for protagonists who have lost the desire to die for their cause. In my estimation, this new offensive at Bullawaya and beyond will not make headways of note. Moreover, the present realities in GoSS post-referendum have corrupted the old Somalian dynamics unbelievably.
@ ole Nkarei – couple of months back, you would have been absolutely spot-on. In the meanwhile however, the Shabaab have adapted and used the TFG/AMISOM offensive to their benefit.
The offensive has pushed back the Shabaab in Mog but failed to disorganize them or undermine their cohesion. In the meanwhile, the Somali population in Mog, Beled Hawo and elsewhere is actually blaming the TFG and its allies for the latest round of their suffering!
The Shabaab have thus changed their message. They now say: “you see now that it’s the kuffar and the munafiqun who are the real obstacle to peace? we only need to dislodge them from Villa Somalia to enjoy tranquility in the country”.
Can you please give more insight into “the present realities in GoSS”?
No big news for those who have followed this thread, but some nice details here:
http://www.biyokulule.com/view_content.php?articleid=2033
@Mugwiira, couple of months back Ole Nkarei explicitly told us that this site is also used for disinformation and propaganda purposes. For those with an ability to employ critical thinking, i think ya’ll able to see through this. However all said, if the government seriously believes that this crisis will pass without elements of K.A making deep raids into Somalia then either they are seriously disillusioned or just plain incompetent. Let’s consider this supposition, the ASWJ+TFG+Ethio forces fail. Al-Shabab retain their grip on Somalia. there’s maybe a month or two of misleading calm while the Shabab consolidate their hold and plan a retaliation that will make other “Qafir” forces tremble. The utilise their connections and sympathetic supporters in Kenya to effect an almost unimaginable attack on Kenya. Next they warn other countries of the same fate that their crusade leader has suffered should they fail to tow the Shabab line. The K. A like always will be stationed along the border to sshow “our commitment and resolve”. God! Must we wait for a Lashkar-e-Toiba style attack on our parliament for us to retaliate?
The big question is: how do you occupy the areas cleansed from the Shabaab? If you retaliate and retreat, you will only make matters worse.
An attack on Kenya of the type you describe will be irrational and useless except as a provocation. Only those who really and truly believe in a global jihad and conquering the world with AK’s and ZU-23’s may be interested in such a provocation. I do not have an impression that such ideas clearly prevail among the Shabaab leadership.
But Ethiopia is a different thing. Al-Shabaab will threaten Ethiopia just like the ICU did. And should ASWJ ever prevail over the Shabaab (which I personally don’t believe), they will threaten Ethiopia, too. It is probably not a coincidence that ASWJ is now so weak, dis-united and old-warlord-dominated, all due to Ethiopian manipulations.
It’s hard to see a solution here which will look satisfactory. One can throw in a few ideas how to weaken the Shabaab, but what’s next?
Mugwiira, you do have in inordinately deep interest in this Sector, for a Yankee, and a damned good handle of it too. Your posts are classically atypical Covert Legends – founded on a verifiable fact but divergent in development from it. Ergo – you are active and in-theatre. Man, you will not run me. Btw, the IndianOcean Newsletter article is factual though shallow in many aspects. You highlighting it though at this juncture (the insertion of TFG Forces by Ethiopia into Somalia at the confluence of three National Boundaries at Mandera!!) is kinda intriguing, bearing in mind this Meles Zenawi’s latest desperate attempt to drag Kenya into open and direct action in Somalia. Wary of you, buddy!!
Now public:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110304/ap_on_re_af/af_somalia_peacekeepers_killed
And that’s just to capture the former Defense Ministry building in Mog.
That facility is not of much use if you are not prepared to get involved in day-to-day administration of the Bakaara market. It is also pretty difficult to defend. Ask the Ethiopians.
Mugwiira, Media reports are never Intelligence Reports, but little more than manufactured stories. So, AMISOM is taking casualties- isn’t that surprising of a military engagement? uncorrelated to planning and results? benefits? Comparative loss figures? Would anyone be less dismissive if this Initiative was controlled and determined by the USA / EU? Somalia drama at this stage is not so much on the value of the Real-estate seized but more on projecting offensive abilities by both protagonists, previously the sole privilege of Al-shabaab. AMISOM has consciously determined to manifest a greater preponderance to Violence than Al-shabaab, the risks calculated and expected.
@ ole Nkarei – indeed I have absolutely no access to “priviledged” information, but what I have been able to understand is that the most recent anti-Shabaab operation has initially been devised as a classic “clear and hold” operation. While this approach has been debated, it is considered to be a more or less viable one.
“Clear and hold” assumes that control spreads from strategic areas to less important ones. A literal, static, “hold” is a failure.
I do not think we have a successful case of clear and hold here.
Regaining the initiative and changing the dynamic of the conflict (which you refer to) in this case looks like a fallback option.
It is not a bad thing at all, but the forces of self-destruction within the TFG are working against this momentum. They are not visible as long as AMISOM can maintain a newly acquired offensive posture, but should that change, the TFG may implode.
At primary conception, ‘’Clear & Hold’’ it was . But then three Nations domesticate it. Kenya -containment of Al-shabaab, a low-grade attrition war inside Somalia. Uganda – National redemption, sustenance of supposed invisibility. Ethiopia – an expanded but contained conflict in her Ogaden & Northern Kenya and dysfunctional Somalia in the near-term. Insertion of those newly trained TFG troops by Zenawi at Mandera changed tack from ‘clear & hold’ unravelling the plot -that was not the agreed staging area. I disagree that the initiative has floundered since momentum is relative to that of the opposing force, nor that the TFG now faces greater possibilities than in the past to disintegrate. It is a rapidly evolving very complex military situation that is not entirely unredeemable.
@ ole Nkarei – what was the “agreed staging area”? And what about the GoSS dynamics you’ve mentioned? Don’t keep us mystified.
Beled Hawo has apparently been taken by “TFG” forces. It seems however, that the Shabaab have simply dispersed in the face of Ethiopian arty as usual. So the “hold” phase is still a big question. In the logic of insurgency warfare, even if the Shabaabists cannot retake BH, it is enough for to just keep it insecure. I wonder how Barre Hiiraale and his old/new friend Abdi Cigaal will handle that.
So the Ethiopians are back:
http://somaliareport.com/index.php/post/176/Ethiopian_Troop_Build_Up_in_Somalia?PHPSESSID=6c8a90fd4260000bd5ee89d7da96960e
If the Shabaab have learnt anything from 2006/2007, they will not try to resist in force this time. Let’s see how they pass this IQ test.
Angola grabs weapons ship destined for kenya ..then lets it go after high level intervention..apparently the cargo ship originated from USA and is carrying a seccret consignment of anti aircraft weaponry meant for the kenya armed forcrs here is the link..
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=2000030623&cid=4&
Another ship ferrying Kenya arms held in Angola seaport
By MARTIN MUTUA
A ship carrying anti-aircraft guns and ammunition that the crew claim belongs to Kenya’s military has been detained in Angola for the last twelve days.
But strangely, the arms from the US were being transported without any official documentation.
The US-flagged ship apparently left America carrying relief food and the arms, which it offloaded at several other ports on the western coast of Africa before docking at Lobito in Angola.
At Lobito it offloaded soybeans, but Angolan officials became suspicious of several containers on the ship, which the captain containers and found the weapons.
The Journal de Angola reported that the country’s national police intelligence service had detained the Maersk line ship after the arms were found on board.
“On investigation revealed that this cache of arms was destined for the armed forces of Kenya,” added the source quoted by the Angolan press.
On Sunday, Kenyan authorities said they could not comment on the issue, while others said they have insufficient information to speak on the matter.
When contacted, Defence Assistant Minister, David Musila, said he was not aware of the arms.
Military spokesman Bogita Ongeri said he could not confirm or deny whether the arms belonged to the Kenyan military.
“That is information that can be given by the shipping agent, and I cannot comment unless it [the shipment] reaches Mombasa for us to clear. For now I am unable to confirm or deny since all is with the shipping agent,” he added.
Defence Minister Yusuf Hajji and senior military officials could not be reached on phone.
But reports of the arms being held at sea brings back to memory the MV Faina saga in which Kenya was caught red-handed arming the Government of Southern Sudan.
In that case, pirates demanding millions in ransom seized the Ukrainian ship laden with anti-aircraft guns and tanks off the coast of Somalia.
While it became apparent that the Kenyan military was acting as a conduit for illegal arms meant for Southern Sudan, State officials continued claiming that the arsenal belonged to the Kenyan military.
Instances of illegal consignments of arms being discovered within the country have also been on the increase.
In 2010, a large cache of arms was seized in Narok town at a garage belonging to a Kenyan, sending panic and shockwaves in the country.
The owner of the garage was later arrested and charged in court, and his case is pending, while the arms and ammunition were impounded.
On the ship held in Angola, sources said the vessel had stopped at Dakar, Senegal to offload food items belonging to a non-governmental organisation in South Africa called Joint Aid Management.
No documentation
The containers with arms are four in number. The ship also had another 16 containers without documentation.
The Angolan media reported that 23 Americans were detained together with the captain, whose name was given as Stancil Jason.
The journal further said the ship was being detained at the port of Lobito for further clarification and other legal procedures
But on Sunday, the US television network CNN, based in Atlanta, Georgia reported that the US ship was allowed to proceed to Mombasa on Friday by the Angolan authorities.
CNN said the ship, Maersk Constellation, was carrying US food aid to several African nations, along with four containers of bullets “destined for a US-allied country under a US Department of State export license arranged by the shipper, a US company that is not affiliated to Maersk,” said a statement from Kevin Speers, senior director for Maersk Line Limited.
As the vessel arrived in Lobito to unload some of the food aid, “all the ship’s cargo was declared,” the shipping line said. “Twelve days later, Angolan authorities raised questions about the four containers on board and elected to detain the vessel until the documentation was verified.”
Local police said the ship, which was en route from Senegal to Kenya, was seized Monday when it docked in Lobito, according to journalist Jose Manuel Alberto.
According to the ship’s manifesto, it was carrying soybean for a South African non-governmental organisation working in Benguela, a city in western Angola, but authorities said they discovered that the soybeans in four of the containers covered a cache of guns, ammunition and rockets.
Local police said the captain had known of the ammunitions, which belong to Kenya’s Defence Ministry, but failed to declare them.
“On Wednesday evening local time, Angolan authorities informed the ship’s captain that the verification process was complete, the cargo will be returned to the vessel and Maersk Constellation will be permitted to proceed with its voyage,” said a statement released by the shipping line
If it’s AA weapons and they’re hidden, GoSS is probably the final consignee.
…the kenya navy better send its boys to protect that ammo and weapons from the pirates…as i am sure they will try all means to grab this cargo ship again…
I quote the shipping agency in reaction to this disinformation being waged by the usual busy-bodies – “”The cargo in question is a U.S. government-approved export that is moving in full conformance with U.S. and international law. The cargo is not destined for Angola. We are working with Angolan and U.S. government officials and expect a resolution that will allow the ship to continue its voyage.” Must there be an devil under every bed, gentlemen? What is this nonsense that all Arms Shipments are destined for GoSS – is Kenya not legitimately obliged to respond to external threats as other nations do? or GoSS, for that Matter? Has GoSS a greater propensity to Armament absorbtion than Kenya? At any rate, and viewed from the reality that the end-user Certification is legit (as it most definitely is in this case), would Kenya being a conduit be any different from the USA vide the Caucasus amongst other places?!!
I concur with Mugwira and Jasiri. This shipment is not for Kenya. Granted, Kenya has the money and may be the reasons to want such ammo, but all evidence points to GoSS.
To begin with, it’s the USA doing much of the sorting of this issue while Kenya, the alleged consignee, is largely silent.
The consignment seems to be under the auspices of the US State Department, and came with other shipments meant for US-allied aid agencies. This is text book American operation to prop an ally in need and advance their interests. Is Kenya in need, I don’t think so.
Save for missiles, Kenya, along with TZ and UG all manufacture a wide array of conventional ammunition (the kenyan factory built by the Belgians while the Chinese are responsible for the ones in UG and TZ). If Kenya wants any extras it has been known to get them from western Europe (Sweden, Uk, Belgium etc). Rarely has it bought directly from the US.
Now, I don’t understand people who think Kenya has to react to all perceived purchases by UG. Those who propagate these idle theories show a poor understanding of the interdependency between these two countries and indeed efforts achieved towards EAC integration. Let me repeat this point here: YOU WILL NEVER SEE A WAR BETWEEN UG AND KE IN YOUR LIFETIME. Infact, Kenya had better worry about Tanzania (with whom you have a mututal lingering resentment and fewer trade ties) or Somalia (due to persistent cross border skirmishes). Who knows Ethiopia may one day pose a threat (mainly due to border resources and water).
I mentioned within these pages that the MV Faina cargo was intended for GoSS. Here is proof thanks to wikileaks:
http://wikileaks.ca/cable/2009/07/09KHARTOUM881.html
my personal view is that kenya is preparing a response to the much touted ugandan modernization of its air force ..basically
my personal view is that kenya is preparing a response to the much touted ugandan modernization of its air force ..basically…but i would imagine double AA units only are basic to air defence ….i they included some SAMS in the packages as well…
@ SPIDERman – US-to-Kenya military assistance has never been a matter of too much secrecy. Must be smth else here..
Mugwiira we share the same sentiments. AA guns should not be a matter of such secrecy. I mean, there’snothing too advanced about an AA. My opinion is that this package includes some AA missiles too advanced for this region hence the secrecy. The fact that the ship was a Maersk line, an unnoficial official U.S.G merchant navy, and that it was released in a very short time “following high level intervetion” says a lot too. Let the press buy the AA guns line, i for one don’t.
Separatelly, where have you guys scattered to? Send my coordinates for a regroup.
here is the link to the official shipping line statement…
sorry….
here is link
again
http://www.joc.com/maritime/angola-releases-us-flag-maersk-ship
Al-Shabaab / Al-Queda have lost hold on the Somali National Psyche. It’s attraction fading, neither fashionable. Strategy of high-end Attrition of their Command & Control structures is definitely the wining hand – kill rate too high for any young man to be brazen about enlisting. ”Clear & Hold” on the back-burner at the present. Al-Shabaabs’ previous monopoly on mindless terror is challenged, and is now looking shapeless, formless and amorphous, and will eventually repair to previous bandit-type small gangs easily picked off by any credible force in Somalia. Obvious signs of this decay becoming apparent even to civilian observers – http://www.africareview.com/News/-/979180/1122984/-/hqihpgz/-/index.html
The Shabaab is indeed more amorphous than ever. It is mutating and nobody is really sure what will become out of it:
http://www.waltainfo.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25041&Itemid=82
But that doesn’t necessarily mean the organization is collapsing.
This “recruitment” of the old guys is a PR gimmick, and is intended to shame the youths who fail to join the fight when even when their grandfathers do. I wonder if it will work, but it’s neither desperate nor stupid.
The Shabaab’s reaction to the most recent offensive in Gedo has been sensible; it may be early to tell, but it seems they have passed “the IQ test” that I’ve mentioned. The Ethiopians have no okay for another occupation from Washington; they have both Barre Hiirale and Madoobe at their disposal but neither is strong enough on his own while using both at once is a no-go; Jubbaland’s clan politics is a minefield. Impasse?
I’m now watching what will happen in Hiiraan.
Mugwiira, you begin to sound like a closet apologist for these fellas, bud! Free-country and all that, but I disagree on several points in your post above, not least your belief in the hyra-headed nature of Al-shabaab. Typical of asymmetric war of terrorist-groups such as Al-Shabaab is an essentially devilish philosophy generally anathemic to Governments. Meles Zenawi learnt this lesson in his first jaunt into Moqadisho (suckered in by Uncle Sam for short-term expediencies of Uncle Sam). As I recall, Al-shabaab’s response then to Zenawi’s Egress was not much different than their present stance, which is atypical of such groupings anyway the world over – Ergo = no lessons learnt, non to learn, by Al-Shabaab. We have a simple strategy with these fellas – encourage their fragmentation as often as they appear to gel under some unified command, by extreme means both soft and hard. And using their rules, methods, philosophy – tis their football in their pitch after all. Uncle Sam’s expectation that this new venture would be a ‘’clear & hold’’ thing – against a depleted force without ideology to excite the population, is unsuited and wasteful on time and resources . Whatever mutations that will rear their heads will themselves be served the same menu till there will lack a critical mass to galvanise armed action on a scale greater than would an armed lawless gang!
Jubbaland politics is reactionary to AlQueda as indeed are most armed groupings outside Al-shabaab,
Your disdain of Al-Shabaab is healthy because they are your enemy. Under any circumstances this organization and similar ones will be a threat to Kenya.
But like any political entity, the Shabaabists are multi-faceted; which is not to say “not so bad”, but to say “not so simple”.
By “lesson learnt” I meant that to disengage and withdraw from Gedo was a clever move; the Ethiopians would prefer to engage them at the border, tie them down and decimate them with concentrated firepower. However, the Ethiopians will not pursue the Shabaab into Jubbaland – and their allies aren’t strong enough to do that.
However, the Shabaabists do not have the luxury of doing the same in Hiiraan/Galguduug. That’s why what happens there is particularly important.
The Shabaab’s attractiveness (agree 100%!) to the population has indeed peaked off (you know, some on this forum deny that they ever had any popular appeal at all) but they seem to have matured on both strategic and tactical level. I wonder how this will play out; popularity and political control do not always correlate.
It is not an under-estimation or disdainful bravado at all. We are engaged to-depth in Somalia-sector, hush-hush, and have studied these brigands to depth, bro.
Al-shabaab is very shallow in every military /political aspect and in each facet no matter how multiple they mutate. A creature of various external parties not least of them being Kenya. So heavily infiltrated and compromised as to make nonsense of any offensive planning.
But for the dwindling external elements of AlQaeda, Al-Shabaab lack the sophistication and ability to justify their glamorous reputation. They have always never espoused Ideology to mobilise their host population and have compensated for this by terrorising this population to submissive acceptance. However, this too dissipates as their thin clock of invincibility falls off.
AlQaeda / Alshabaab is done. Matter of time before this environment ejects them completely.
These bastards may be shallow, small-minded and infiltrated but tactically they are doing exactly the right stuff.
Last week I wrote: “In the logic of insurgency warfare, even if the Shabaabists cannot retake BH, it is enough for to just keep it insecure”. And, this is what I read today:
http://shabelle.net/article.php?id=4424
Wake up Jordan. Do the thing, man.
@ Risasi, Mugwiira, One-man-army, Jasiri, Olekoima, Mwister, Spiderman, Spearman, Vitruvian, Areba, ‘D’, Tororo, Chinook, all Chronicle bloggers of-old
REGROUP-ON-ME right here on Chronicles. Regroup people, or we perish! We are stretched out, flanks exposed.Regroup, fellas!
Good to be back. Lets talk nuclear, DRC has an old reactor and there are serious (if any initiative by the politburo is to be believed) efforts to get nuclear energy in the country.
What are the implications, potential sites for deployment and possible costs?
ole Nkarei, thanks for the rallying cry. I’ve not heard from some of those guys for a long time.
For starters, what about a new post about something new so we don’t go back to an old story in order to comment about current events.
The logic of Insurgency warfare you refer to rests solely on the invincibility of terror as a result of sustained momentum. ETA has been moribund these many years recently sued for peace, the glamorous European terrorist outfits of the seventies simply vanished, even the very ideological Palestinian Outfits struggle for relevance during peace time. Momentum was lost, never recovered.
We mustn’t glorify these brigands by crediting them abilities they have never manifested. They have had their day in the sun. They are done Civilian sites carry a whole lot of info that together collates Somali Conflict as hopelessly lost to Al-shabaab.
reporting as ordered, What do you guys make of the latest rumblings in Juba? I hear the SPLM is particularly angered by Bashir. They say Bashir is sticking his not-so-clean fingers into their ribs. Interesting.
Definitely the North will do everything to fail the South. Bashir quietly accepted the independence referendum because he could not reverse it but that was a tactical retreat.
Hey Spartan. Good to have you back. You too, Jasiri. We scattered to many sites each as emancipated and weakened as the other, such that we are clearly chasing smoke, and weakening the content of our intercourse. I marvel at the depth of the exchange from earlier posts here last year. Who would have credited such richness to East Africans? Readership from such places as would shock anyone, I tell you. So, we need to consolidate in one or two fora to pool the various professionalism of our contributions. Send out the call, fellas.
http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Somalia+is+sweet+and+sour+business+for+Burundi+Uganda/-/2558/1124180/-/jgygqt/-/
Another ill-trained/led Burundi battalion went in last week. All for the feel-good elements of the ruling class!! Poor buggers!
At least the numbers help the “hold” part of the mission. What is this i hear about 50ACB guys buzing Dif?
http://www.raxanreeb.com/?p=87167
The usual SF insertions / extractions stuff, though now heightened to path-find the new ex-mayani TGF brigade movement into the Centre. The Boots, HELOs and Tracked Vehicles at border to close the door coz these goons always double back into Kenya to regroup and refit when it hots up in Somalia – Meles trying to suck us into this thing, his Insertion of his recently trained TGF brigade through Mandera / Bulla Hawo case in point. Al-shabaab is done, just a matter of time.
hahaha so you are now employing the Russian tactic at Stalingrad, Tun back and you are shot?What with the armoured wall behind them. This Manyani uys have to justify the effort, time and finances injected to train ’em. No wo ways about it, TEY HAVE TO SUCCEED.
“Hold” = “isolate population from insurgents”.
This is not good:
http://hiiraan.com/news2/2011/Mar/somali_rebels_regroup_in_south_launch_brief_attack.aspx
The logic behind the Gedo invasion is that sustained military pressure may cause Jubbaland clans to revolt against Al-Shabaab and kick them out of Kismayo. Otherwise, the GSU-trained chaps are unlikely to achieve much.
Let’s see.
Not good either:
http://shabelle.net/article.php?id=4186
Meles not convinced?
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Ethiopia-PM-blames-Muslim-extremist-group-for-church-burnings-117897334.html
(towards the end)
Heeding your call, Tom. Now, what’s really on the Maersk Constellation?
Remember the MVFiana sting, and now the Pirates stronger and better? Ergo all arms shipments must be under very tight wraps. But a few mortar rounds, some artillery shells, standard issue assault rifle ammunitions ? In only four 20ft containers, for crying out loud? Hijack such a mundane consignment? You can procure these easily in open-air arms bazaars all over the Caucasus without need for the usual certification. Ergo – someone’s blowing smoke to good effect, or this Cargo is a vanguard-shipment in a staggered delivery programme. Take your pick, men! American Damage Control in full swing now on the airwaves!
with all these stories,i can only sum it up that we are a weaker force and ill equipt.
wat would be the need of lining up along the border without firing a single shot?
the toposa are at it again last week injuring many of our mates,its terrible
The Cold War lasted, what, 60years? And ended after how many Nuclear Missiles exchanges? Come on Chinook! Keep this real, bra! You know well the genesis and reasons for the Toposa seasonal aggression, and it is not unexpected that during the present extended drought, unfortunate incidences such as this recent may occur. Surely this is not indicative of generalized martial weakness or poor equipment as you imply!
Lower and Middle Job seething and emptying of Al-shabaab, Raskamboni fighters rejoining TFG with full engagement, and it appears the Somali Nation is regrouping to retake their Country – Puntland, Galmudug, Ahlu Sunna, TFG, IGAD and UN meeting to generate momentum of the Egress into Somalia of newly trained insertions. Moqadisho all but taken from Al-shabaab, all momentum lost but for the token reactionary but disjointed actions. And we are still seating this out still. Just a matter of time and these brigands are history – I would hazard to say that Libya will be the magnetic force for Islamic Extremism in very short order.
a raft of observations that warrant mention:
Ethiopia Vs Eritrea: Whats with this? Et looking for a port access by all means?
Ethiopia Vs Egypt on the Nile: Nile wars finally happening?
March 21 Khartoum.. South’s (and the West) response to sabotage ?
seemingly the KAF hawks are flying again,can some one confirm this again?
“Ole Nkarei what seems to be wrong with “our” boys? The first brigade was given a thorough beating by the Shabab, the second brigade has now been beaten out of Belet-Hawo, after Kilo Alfa units crossed in to provide combat support-rem i said this was inevitable. Is it the quality of the trainning we are giving this poor buggers or is it the morale? How long will our Arty continue halting the advance of the Shabab over these territories coz that means that these Manyanites can’t advance into areas that are not afforded Arty cover by our units
Hey Jasiri, you really are one switched-on dude!! But nothing worrisome happened in Belet Hayo nor in Gedo, Juba nor in Moquadisho. Ebbs &Flows of fast rapid and fluid battlefield without the conventional lines, so to speak. Don’t forget these TFG chaps are raw recruits, wholly untested in leadership and in ranks. I tell you, close-support Artillery fire would spook anyone first coupla of times.But ‘’our boys’’ are certainly more disciplined, cohesive and motivated than these brigands. There has been queries about motivation and possible cross-infiltration by Al-shabaab, and some desertions have been reported. But my info is an expansion of Theatre on all three fronts is anticipated any day now, there is greater involvement of the politicos and civilians now in the Military Initiatives running in Moquadisho, Gedo, upper Juba, Puntland and Somaliland have bought into this thing too, hell, the brigands are in generalized retreat / re-gouping (not sure which precisely has precedent at this point). Lower Juba and southern Somalia is still fluid but even there the Al-shabaab have their backs against a veritable wall. Matter of time, is all.
Well.. “On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”)
@ Jasiri – I think it’s about morale and leadership. Not that they want to fight, but they are not ready to die. They are misled that a “just cause” and good deal of firepower would give them a quick victory.
Training a Somali COIN force is a mistake. It is a counter-Shabaab INSURGENCY force which must be created. This force will infiltrate the Shabaab-controlled areas and create insecurity there in order to piss off the locals and turn them against the Shabaab. Fight fire with fire or waste time.
Have no idea who the author is, but this looks to be a good piece of analysis:
@Mugwirra, it is very thin, buddy. And the slant of it clear and unmistakable. I discount it entirely. Methinks your cover worn, mate??!
The legend behind this site is suspicious and there is a [subtle and cleverly non-intrusive, btw] bias, but it would be wasteful to discount this analysis because of the “slant”. If that was the criteria, one would have to discount a whole lot of potentially useful information!
No matter how much one says that Al-Shabaab is washed out, you have to admit that your favorites like Barre Hiirale, Abdi Cigaal, Adan Madobe, Yusuf Inda’adde aren’t any better off. In fact they are worse.
What is needed to defeat Al-Shabaab convincingly is a rival insurgency. A new breed of kids, thoroughly brainwashed, surpassing the Shabaabists in cunning and brutality, trained in guerrilla warfare and subversion. Capable of being inserted in the Shabaab-controlled areas, causing pain and still surviving.
You are right, it must be shown that Al-Shabaab don’t have a monopoly on mindless terror. But AMISOM’s crazy “counterbattery” operations aren’t the right way of doing it.
But what I’m proposing – raising a competing insurgency – is not an option for Ethiopians because it will be not less, and maybe even more, dangerous to them than the Shabaab. Think how Israel helped the formation of Hamas as a rival to PLO.
Therefore, since 2008, a huge deal of time, effort and money is being wasted on a stillborn project called “TFG” instead being invested into smth useful.
Agreed with you on the reverse-insurgency thing, have buddied about this for months at G2. Chaps across are so fickle and unreliable in their commitment/ motivation / justifications – it would either fizzle out in short order or metamorphose into just another Al-shabaabtype. Moreover, a hearts-and-minds strategy works counter with this reverse-insurgency thing. I am convinced that a critical mass of ”stakeholders” coupled with their war-weariness is about to emerge. They are turning the corner, I think soon. See this civilian titbit on this link below.
http://www.africareview.com/News/Somali+groups+discuss+ways+to+subdue+extremists/-/979180/1134556/-/12i47lh/-/index.html
http://www.waltainfo.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25858&Itemid=52
2,000 troops organized in “four equal-sized brigades, making up two divisions”? What kind of TOE is that?
Does that mean 3,000 khat chewers on “technicals” make a mechanized corps?))
And, can someone suggest another topic? We’ve taken too long discussing the Somali theater here..
The renewed urgency in de-shababing Somalia stems from the situation in Yemen. Everyone concurs that should Yemen fall, the insurgency in Somalia would be worse and for us Kenyans we will realy be in deep shit. As such, a force like what Mugwiira has sugested (though viable) is impossible to create. This is what the U.S did with Al-Q, Israel with Hamas; look where it has landed them. It is much safer to opt for a “National” army which at anytime you can cut supplies than a terror counter-terror group. However as things stand in Yemen and Somalia, should the SNA fail then the Kenya will cross into Somalia. That i’m sure of.
i read somewhere about KE advocating for a somaliland type “buffer zone”, makes lots of sense from where im sitting, what i wonder though is, would that then not end up being a chessboard for a proxy war between Ethiopia and KE and whoever else is interested in a semi autonomous Jubaland ?
You know that may just work. All mad people live between Kismayo and Maydh (Past Boosaso). I say though that if Kenya takes a more pro active approach to this Juba Land initiatiative we may just succeed. Juba (Gedo region, Juba Dhexee and Juba Hoose) are Darod territories. In Kenya we have a good history with the Darod’s e.g Mohammed Yusuf Haji-Ole Nkarei and co’s boss- the no-nonsense Faarax Maalim Mohammed. If we convince Barre Hiiraale that it the Clan (of course meaning him) to be our puppet we may succeed pulling this one off. Of course we have to be discreet because the moment Hiiraale is seen as a puppet of the Muqafir the project is dead.
Finally some Jubaland “progress”. Read http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-29/somali-region-may-be-granted-autonomy-to-end-lawlessness-standard-reports.html
@jasiri..
is it this big?
@ole Nkarei:
Any chance this is a first step towards kenyana ? 🙂
@Areba – watch GoSS in July this year – real cinch. Heightened acceleration of drift from DRC and her sister-Congo, Ethiopia pushing for early evaluation. Jubaland simply borrows from Puntland and Somaliland that have been di-facto members for nearly two years anyway. The European-generated chaos in Arab states have taken some thunder from this train, but …….
Thats what i love to hear, Just seen loads of birthday presents to AMISOM too from the EU i think (almost 100m US), for doing some “good work” in somalia and the same fellas have started subjecting this infant nation into debt 29 billion for (sic) building the international airport…
Two questions though…
1: How does this play out for KE – ET relations (disquiet over this whole independence thing as it might awaken some sleeping demons inside their borders)
2: Where is UG in the action now that i hear quite some insistence on a one-border trip to sea from GOSS…
Areba, Kenya Defence Forces has little capability to project force beyond it’s own borders. Successful implementation of the Pax Kenyana project will require both stick and carrot aproach. In the carrot end we can do it, but when it comes to the stick end we just can’t. Look at our force composition currently. Were composed more as a COIN force than a conventional army. Should this Jubaland and SS project succeed our imediate headache will be our Navy. We need to be able to protect Jubaland from seaborne incursions and our trade routes from disruption. Trouble in Somalia will not end with Jubaland. Extremist force will make sea-borne incursion in skiffs, disrupt trade to Kismayo by hijacking ships e.t.c This in trn will turn the Jubaland administration into a sponge that needs to saok up Kenyan resources to survive. SS trade is also another factor. The sheer volume of trade that will pass through our ports is mind boggling, and to think we can protect that with 6 missile boats it’s utter mediocrity. I see an imidiate need for at least 6 corvettes with aviation facilites, that way two can be patrolling Jubaland waters and the four Kenyan waters. Of course as you see this is a very insufficient force but like i said it is an imideate need. We can always expand. Of critical importance too is an MPA squadron permanently based at the coastline, prefferably at Manda Bay Naval Base. This should be a mix of helicopters and transport/recce aircraft, for the moment there’s no forseeable need for naval fighters. We must stop having global economic ambitions and regional defence needs.As it stands, i repeat, our forces are insufficient for this “PAX KENYANA” project.
@jasiri thanks for the comprehensive audit. (waiting for fast and furious reactions from )
just wondering though, would there be justification in the medium to long term enough to go into this Kenyana agenda full scale. Assuming there is capability to mobilize political, civilian and non civilian machinery, what is there to be gained from jubaland?
Just a quick question on this no fly zone business.
Assuming this thing is imposed on a sovereign nation for reasons not necessarily noble, and an existing military & airforce is in place. what is the professional (and not necessarily emotional) response a military should do all factors considered? appeal? declare war?
A no-fly is a military projection of a political situation. The assumption is the existence of an overwhelming capacity and willingness to enforce it, a superiority in all means necessary to sustain this political decision. Generally the no-fly begins with a crisp and targeted demonstration of this overwhelming capacity to enforce it, on the structures that would potentially have the mandate to resist the No-fly. Ergo, a military strategist would be very much alive to these assumptions, driving from his own acceptance of the inability to impeach the no-fly by military means. Therefore, limitation of damage to military equipment, personnel and structures would assume precedent while the military pushes and hopes for some rapid political resolution one-way-or-the-other. A stalemate may result if the no-fly should lack of military targets, while inevitable collateral loses resultant from the no-fly intrusion may with time turn the moral justifications for this no-fly entirely on its head!
is implementation of the no-fly reactive or proactive, especially with respect to the structures that would have the mandate to resist. Meaning…. does it assume resistance and act accordingly?
It’s implementation is reactive in the sense that the morality underpinning it must justify its implications in the International minefield of Sovereign states inter-relationships – there must exist an argument to justify a No-Fly policy in a Country. And due to the preponderance of capacity implicit to prosecuting it, resistance in any military form denotes wholesome destruction of the over-flown country’s military-industrial infrastructure and lose of sovereignty for a period to the implementing Powers. If the Brits convinced their cousins in the UNSC to implement a No-Fly over our mother-land, I assure you the Military would seat it out and endeavour as much as possible to limit the expected destruction of it’s equipment, personnel and infrastructure. Sad, but real.
It is consequent to its reactive nature that a UNSC No-Fly policy has a specific delineated mandate, that seek to address the arguments pertaining that justified it’s pronouncement at the UNSC. What the Europeans are doing is proactive policy implantation which has little to do with the justifications for the UNSC No-Fly Mandate – they are doing what Kiraitu Murugi argued a while ago about raping a willing woman! The Europeans’ specific strategic interests now drive the No-Fly over Libya. Any interventions that have been prosecuted through the UNSC or any other Body in recent history have always mangled the consensus backdrop of the Interventions as geopolitical interests overrode all other situation-specific considerations..
In that case Gadaffi played right into the hands of the bean counters at Brussels…. sad.
I think the Europeans, blinded by their avarice and overwhelming capacity to military violence, have been suckered in by the wily desert fox. Their Martial advantage remains so if they have relevance flying over Libya( opposition and targets), and if they are able to energize decisive local opposition to Qaddafi- which they seem not to be able without getting their feet wet, so to speak. Qaddafi can hold the present stalemate longer than the Europeans can sustain it. In the Medium term too much local and international realities work against the Europeans, strategically Qaddafi has this thing tied down to a point. Have you not wondered where the vaunted Libyan Air Force, Armour and Strategic Air Defense Units have vanished to? And why only Libyan Paramilitary units are engaged in this conflict – where is his Army? So overbalanced is this that after failing to take Qaddafi out by Air, they have sent in Military and Intelligence units in to dust him off!! Though I don’t admire this man, I am intrigued by the genius of his strategy in this challenge he faces presently.
I know this may not be a very reliable source but i have to ask, is the Libyan disciplined forces that homogenous? is it as disciplined to remain intact in such times? and at what point does taking instructions from CIC become a matter of moral judgement?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_Army
thats whats missing above.
I consider that human beings have an inherent propensity to pull apart creating individual space for each, and hence the resulting differentiation by family units, clan, tribe, nationalities, regions etc. Logically then, there isn’t at monolithic military entity in the world. Cohesion is achieved by deliberate programmes which give birth to the acronym ”disciplined forces”. The extent to which the libyan armed formations are cohesive itself is not a constant and will shift and ebb as this conflict progresses, which is what each side to it are feverishly trying to influence by all means fair and unfair. Is there in recent times a Nation whose civil war was prosecuted in the backdrop of social divisions as intense as those in Iraq? And see how these division eventually were ”backburnered” when the sovereignty and security of the Unitary Iraq become clear and present? Despite the best efforts of Uncle Sam to exploit them to the full? As concerns the Military capacityof the Libyan Armed Forces, no matter that there doubts about the serviceability and operating competences of the Users, what is visibly in use in this conflict gives worrisome nightmares to the rebels and their foreign handlers. Does at Soldier retain an residue obligation or right to make moral judgements on Tasking Orders? C’mon Areba!!
Finally M7 confirms today of his SU-30MK2 purchase, delivery date unknown. Interesting times ahead for Risasi and his Fly-boys buddies.
@OK i remember you a while back talking of effifteenees somewhere in this forum. .. just wondering how that panned out…
Yes, what happened to that?
The SU-30MKK are ”Counter-weight” and indicator to those effifteenees. What is the threat-justification?The Bandit-King has already forked out in the last 7 months just about USD800Mill on these 6 birds and related Weaponry – over three times total UPDF’s defense budget projections 2010 pre-SU30MKK!! No credit-line extended, and a couple of installments to go before delivery is effected. And the black gold that is ostensibly the cause of a bullish defense spending is still in the ground!! You reckon this sort of activity happens in a void, or that the usual culprits will sit out of it? Eh,Vitruvian, don’t play the ”half-moon”, stranger!!
FRUSTRATING:
At the expense of sounding reactive, is there a clear strategic direction we have as a nation to grow our security apparatus in tandem with economic and geopolitical considerations? Of what use is an expanded coastline we cant protect, or a thuggish neighbour who can strike from 3000km, or a bullish economy we cant safeguard?
The rout is begun. TFG overrans Dhobley this afternoon after quick crisp exchange with the bandits, but not without help from elements of Kilo Alfa’s Arty,Tank, AirCalv, Deltas and the Rangers . Al shabaab on full tilt dash for regroup in Moqadisho. The TFG chaps acquitted themselves well, gaining experience and character. End is near.
Look whose here!!!Ive been reading through the posts.The somali theater has been in depth covered by you guys.great job you never fail to amaze me…..Those Mayani boys have been taking quite a beating over the past few weeks.Just two weeks ago a company sized unit was outflanked and sucked into an al shabab pincer it took a blitz type assault by the rangers in APCs to scare the jihadists off…..and if it wasnt for kenyan artie these al shabab characters would be knocking on manderas gates by now…..The advanced GSU units at the frontier have also held their own against those .50 cals on technicals with only their G3s and a few light artie pieces.This says alot about the quality of our training…..otherwise it blows hot and cold at the lines i mean that literaly one minute bullets are zinging past your head in the blistering cold of the night. The next day its blazing like hell with no enemy in sight. Obviously i need some time to analyze the posts but am in touch for the time being……R n R sure is good.
Well it seems Jubaland is here with us, complete with a president..
and on a sad note…
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/1138970/-/10yx315z/-/index.html
Hey ‘D’, welcome home, enjoy your ”R & ”R to the hilt, man. I tell you, G3/ops sucks, desk-bond paper-pushing tele-pointer stuff and all! @Areba, we ain’t out of the pan yet with this ”Bantustan-style” thing in Somalia. It could go horribly wrong in the immediate. But on a one-step-at-a-time anti-shabaab justification, this Jubaland /Puntland / Somaliland constellation is golden.
Son of Nkarei you are a man of action.and as a fellow bush grunt i feel your pain….I happen to have been a regular passenger in this same same Mi-17 in the past few weeks. The thing is a workhorse and i can personally vouch for its airworthiness. It must have been a technical problem or pilot error that caused the crash. The frame is still largely intact meaning it didnt get much of a freefall.
About this new somali republic, whatever you call it it is an auxilliary province (or is it county these days) of ours whose primary purpose is a buffer zone. Remember this idea was floated on this very blog months ago and was very well accepted. All we have to be careful about now is that we dont install someone wholl later turn rogue on us.
By the way, Ethiopia seems to have set the pace on this Nile treaty fiasco with the Grand Millenium Project.
snippets i picked elsewhere.
http://tandaa.net/groups/topic/view/group_id/1/topic_id/19/post_id/32
and in a swift rejoinder, jonglei is back on board and some “MOU” has been signed between the south and Masri. Under the table Brown envelope activity? or new nation focusing on her immediate needs…
@ Ole Nkarei
@ Areba
I waited like forever for you guys to write something about the SU-30s. I know a few folks who would say that Uganda can not afford to maintain them, that we would have used the money for roads, that we can’t fly them etc. Frankly, all these reasons are tired and oversubscribed.
Granted, any thing the ‘bandit king’ does is bound to create uncomfortable feelings in some quarters, but know this:
1- The ‘bandit king’ has your back covered in Somalia. If it were not for his vision of Somalia, Al Shabaab would by now have taken over the entire country and probably made good on their promise to annex Somali-speaking north western Kenya.
2- The ‘bandit king’ can still do some simples sums. On numerous occasions, the UPDF has had intel as to the exact location of Kony. (I almost called him a ‘bandit’ but stopped in my tracks on realising that you have reserved that term for the president of Uganda. Sometimes I wonder, is this hostility to him institutional or just personal. ) More recently we knew his zero in Garamba but our MIGs could not fly in bad weather. We asked the Americans for air support but they declined that their congress has to authorise it first.
You see, the ‘bandit king’ can still calculate that you can do with one sortie what the thousands of UPDF in South Sudan and Central African Republic have failed to achieve for years.
3- The oil that you attribute to the ‘bandit king’s, what did you call it – ‘bullish’ behaviour is still in the ground. Uganda would have started producing it in last quarter of 2009 if he really wanted the petro dollars to spend. But he instead decided that all tax issues must be resolved first. And secondly, Ugandan oil must be refined locally to create jobs and wealth in other related sectors. Not exactly the way a bandit thinks, if you asked me.
Kenya has the strongest economy in the Great Lakes region, the largest middle class etc and I am sure you can afford to buy 20 of the same. Your geopolitical strategists can either seize the unique opportunity your country finds itself in and take leadership; or you can sit there and feel intimidated everytime someone does something you are not bold enough to do.
It is too early to pass judgement on M7’s contribution in this region. Only histroy will tell whether, generations down the road, the follwoing interventions mean he was a statesman or bandit:
– Supporting the RPF especially in their final pusch to capture power and end the genocide.
– Supporting Southern Sudan not only morally and logistically but by putting boots on the ground
– Removing Mobutu alongside Rwanda and Burundi.
– Participating in the restoration of peace in Somalia
-etc
Hey Brother Spartan. Good to touch with you again. Again, pls accept my apologies for the appellation I coined to make reference to what is one of the most colourful and complex political figure in our East African Region, whose influence and effect is felt far beyond his own National boundaries no matter that various critiques may differ on the value of these. I assure you that it is not an institutional appellation of this person by my employer, nor is it from any negative personal biases. I will desist from using of this appellation to avoid giving you further offense, brother Spartan.
That our strategists develop military & civilian offensive and defensive postures specific to Uganda is really not ominously out-of-the-ordinary nor uniquely towards Uganda as we legitimately upgrade such postures on every of our neighbours – I am certain your UPDF strategist do the same too. These are really contingencies, to develop capacity in our Defensive / Offensive Doctrines and not indicative of a ‘’clear and imminent’’ large-scale warfare with Uganda. However, own main preoccupation in the Planning & Strategy Dockets is what is loosely referred to here as ’’ Kenyana’’ – the risks and possibilities inherent therein , specifically the relevance and impact kDoD will / should exert in it; basically effectively interpreting and projecting the political aspirations of Kenya in this ‘’Kenyana’’, remembering of course that this will determine Kenya’s success in the competition for Resources and Markets in ‘’Kenyana’’. We have an open and free-ranging ‘’hunting licences’’ on this matter, and are not restricted to (nor detracted by) bilateral realities such as the very ineffectual impact of the 6-Units of Su-30Mk2 on present military balances in East Africa. Really, I have a large-scale military-type map infront of my desk of a region with 12 countries – Uganda being one of them!! Relax, there will be no war between us unless someone fu—ks up bigtime!!
@Spartan;
I had started taking you seriously and then you had to spoil it by saying things like;
“…The ‘bandit king’ has your back covered in Somalia. If it were not for his vision of Somalia, Al Shabaab would by now have taken over the entire country and probably made good on their promise to annex Somali-speaking north western Kenya…”
@spartan,
Im hardly an authority and im adversely mentioned? huh?.
anyway, in my personal opinion, M7 should have focused on building the economy of Uganda from its current almost half (in terms of GDP) the size of the Kenyan economy if he has any intentions of of making impact because eventually, War costs money.
If i were museveni, I would use the money to blackmail Kenya, whose almost half of total exports end up there to set up industries in UG for onward foray into the region. I would also be worrried that a single railway line passing through some ideologically unstable slum can cause irreparable damage to my economy and bully the country into getting an alternative route, or maybe even sweet talk the southern neighbour into creating an alternative route, wildlife conservation notwithstanding.
That would be strategy, not provoking a regional arms race i cant afford in the long run…
@ ole Nkarei
@ IM
@ Areba
You guys were all swift in your reactions and I commend you for it. Allow me to respond to some of the issues you brought up. To begin with, these jets aren’t meant to alter any balances in this region. Anyone who’s been following M7 will know that first and foremost, he considers himself an East African. in his own words, Kenya and Uganda are two midgets, with one slightly taller than the other. He would be happy to see Kenya much stronger than it is, preferably in a united EA.
I do not think mighty airforces can alter much in this region of dense forests, hills and valleys. I would rather have a state-of-the-art air defence system together with a committed fighting force. This worked for us when from January 1996 we were able to take Sudan’s airfoce out of the equation after downing two supersonic MIG jets and the slower 40,000ft-flying Antonov. So the six SU-30s are not meant for that purpose but to add a limited reach and capability to the UPDF. Besides, can Uganda really afford an arms race with Kenya or Tz?
Two things happened around the time that these jets were ordered. Egypt and Sudan literally threatened war over Nile waters and Southern Sudan was due to hold a referendum and possibly declare independence. Additionally our airforce had been exposed as medieval when for two days our jets couldn’t fly due to bad weather. During this time Kony got away.
If EA states follow suit and buy better machines, who knows, it may be better for us all in the long run. A strong EA is good for us all. I am certain no one is foolhardy enough to declare war on a fellow EA state. We’ve put so much in place and are so interconnected to even fathom that. As for military planners drawing scenarios for each country around in case of war, I can’t say Uganda doesn’t do it, but am sure we are looking out of the EA for the real dangers.
@IM, I stand by my assertion that because Al Shabaab is too preoccupied with AMISOM, Kenya is safer until someone produces evidence to the contrary.
I foresee constant headaches for people who don’t understand why a poor countries need strong militaries in addition to strong economies. As long as we are percieved as weak we will run out of people who want to ride roughshod over us. In my opinion a strong military which is able to provide security is a better guarantor of economic prosperity than money in the bank.
Thanks @spartan.
Your discourse takes me back to first principles. What would qualify as a strong EA? is it necessarily an EA armed to the teeth?
I still think its more prudent to have invested that money as human capital before considering hardware…
You are right when you say that investment in human capital, hospitals, roads, schools etc brings better value for money. But poor countries have stark choices. They need investment in all sectors as well as in defence.
Man, I hope you guys don’t conclude that I am a hawk, but the thing is, these birds have already been bought. We have to dwell on the positives and banish the negatives to the back of the mind.
By a strong EA I mean an entity that is able to defend itself. We don’t have to project any power. I don’t think by buying a few planes we should be considered as ‘armed to the teeth’. I mean, the collective firepower of all EA states does not even add up to half the punch of a US aircraft carrier.
It would be wonderful if no one had to buy any guns and ammo, but that’s in the utopian world. That’s why despite not having industries that make safety pins and matchboxes, at least three states in EA have industries that produce a variety of ammo and other military products. It’s for the same reason that the US is spending billions in Iraq and Afghanistan instead of putting up houses for its millions of homeless or jobs for those without work.
If one state in EA had better machines than Ug and was willing to help there would be no need for us to procure the same.
@Spartan
I like the way you teach our so called Kenyan “soldiers ” how to think/reason. Am also wondering whats this obsession of Kenya’s military viewing Uganda as a threat while Alshabab has been attacking Kenya almost on a daily basis.
Recently, at the North Eastern region of Kenya, Alshabab attacked a GSU camp in Liboi. GSU officers responded & chased them all the way back to Somalia. At least 12 terrorists were killed while Kenyan soldiers just stood there & watched.
The GSU & AP’s seem to be doing what the army ought to be doing. I think what the Govt should do is to merge both units to form a single strong & better equipped force & place it under the ministry for defence. Something like the U.S marines.
@Kashujaa, no need to denigrate all persons in uniform, anywhere. It is unsavory and unacceptable for rational debate. Please desist,brother.
I agree with Brother Spartan’s guarded statement about the Gemini-type linkage between Military Force-projection and Development, something I have been singing about for a long time on this and other blogs. No country develops on the basis of the goodwill of it’s neighbours, because essentially their relationship is competitive to different levels of animosity.
This is particularly so in today’s unfair universe where all arbitration forums are loaded to entrench the social-economic status quo. Hence our pretensions, in East Africa as well, both our Emancipation and Development are in their very basic terms revolutionary and anti-established-world-order since they denote intentions /actions akin to a coup d’etat of an established world order, a redefinition of roles and relationships in this blighted world.
Collectively, we seat on wealth beyond imagination, of such depth and scope as to blow your mind away. So impossibly vital for the very survival and continued existence of western nations that war into perpetuity in this ‘’Kenyana’’ is hardly worth a second-thought, no compunction to them whatsoever. We are condemned to be primary sources of these raw materials without any control of their markets, a destination of over-priced commodities manufactured by over-paid welfare-state citizenry. And this is fifty years after the Colonialist supposedly abandoned us to our own designs!!
In brief, therefore, I see all of us engaged in a deathly struggle to break these shackles, which we must to survive on better terms. And though we have not yet engendered generalised concordance on manner this struggle should take, as East Africans, the various individual efforts to grow strong militarily can only add to the collective – if we are not manipulated to turn our Military Abilities on each other!! Eventually, even the DRC will break relatively free to begin enforcing her rights to her long-pillaged mineral wealth when, say, Kenya and Ethiopia have sufficient force-projection to enforce some relative order between the DRC and her fractious neighbours.
Now as concerns those UG birds, they are just too few to be an aggravation of the Military Balance in the region, and though it does imply some development, it isn’t impossible to repulse their possible aggression with the use of properly sited land-based defensive complexes – which are not even now lacking in kDoD. Thankfully, we are all, both sides, clear about this on.
http://somaliareport.com/index.php/post/456/Defection_Merry-go-round_Spins_Both_Ways
You gotta love Somalia. The Mareehan are happier with Kismayo being run by a Shabaab-appointed Isaaq (Pakistani, Yemeni – whatever) than their Ogaden rivals.
And vice versa.
Concerning the UG Sukhoi purchase.
If the goal was to waste the money, they should’ve bought some B-2’s and hired Americans to fly them.
Su-30MK2’s flown by Belarussians and Ukrainians – c’mon, that’s not glamorous enough!
Would give anything to see the UG generals’ faces when the maintenance/repair bills will start coming in.
M7 said: “Uganda had previously purchased old equipment that had developed mechanical problems”.
Ah non, mon General! Why is it that the very East European arms sellers who’ve been gang-raping Uganda’s procurement budget have failed to use the same tricks on the Ethiopians?
Can I suggest a solution? Send some of your poorer generals to Elgon Technical College instead of Ft. Leavenworth, and put some richer ones before the shooting squad.
@Mugwiira,
If my knowledge of the Luganda language serves me right, your alias on these pages sugests you are a Ugandan. For the uninitiated ‘mugwiira’ means ‘foreigner’ in my native Luganda.
You probably live in Kenya due to political differences with the Ugandan government or most likely, because you’ve been involved in some insurgent activities hence your fear of returning home. All those are just, let’s say, my idle hypotheses for the reasons why you always bring politics (read hatred for the government of Uganda) into seemingly live intellectual discourses. Lets keep our personal political inclinations and tastes out of this blog, people.
Let me categorically state this here; no white man will fly those planes. You may believe that black people and Ugandans in particular aren’t good enough, but that’s your right. You can write about how the Americans and their machines are better than the Russians till the cows come home. But a more critical mind will know that all the media blitz about how America and the west make the best in everything is meant to mainatin a certain world order.
And they at least have one convert in you.
And if anyone has gang-raped Uganda’s procurement process, its the corrupt Ugandan officials who procured the defective machines. This mentality that somehow black people are not responsible for their own mistakes and that it’s the Russians to blame when we go shopping in their junk yard belongs in the mind of people who think we are not good enough.
Allow me to explain to you how military procurements are supposed to play out according to the neocons of this world.
1. A ‘first world’ country contracts their industrial military complex to produce a jet with a lifespan of 25 years.
2. After 20 years of service the jets are sold on to another country, which overhauls them and uses them for 10 years.
3. After 10 years these planes are developing mechanical faults and are using too much space in the hangar. That’s when we are supposed to come shopping.
We are not meant to buy at phase 1 or 2 because that breaks the cycle that clears the junk from their hangars and lines the pockets of the military industrial complex.
Liberate yourself from this mentality brother. Our problem is not that we have too much money to waste, but strategic thinking. We could still have used the $740m in phases on junk machines and no one would have made as much noise.
Lest I forget, only a select club of strong US allies are ALLOWED TO BUY THE B2 STEALTH BOMBER. And Uganda is not on that list. Do some research.
@spartan -Take it easy, Soldier. We are all the same team here. I reckon his contribution do enrichen our discussions in many ways, the man has detail and is really switched-on on Intel and Martial matters too. Cut the man some slack too, though I kinda agree he does have an obstinate thing about Somalia and M7. It is all part of the dialogue here, though I agree we should be men of honor in this blog as well as in our jobs. BTW the man is not Ugandan, that I can tell you factually. Your postulation on the Military procurement and productions of strategic Military storres is spot on, in my view. Cool down buddy!
been reading about the Sukhoils and the F-15s and im making some interesting discoveries…. seemingly under standard conditions (assuming the same guy flying both at the same time ), the MK’s have an edge nine times out of ten….
some videos compiled from youtube and metacafe
http://bit.ly/fNr2wS
@ Areba – don’t be bothered by this stuff. These exercises “measure” WVR performance only, and in a most crude way because they were NOT INTENDED to measure anything. For example, “nominal” missile launch distances are employed.
That Su-30MKI is more maneuverable than the F-15 is very well known. However that doesn’t give it a decisive advantage even in WVR, to say nothing of BVR.
Subtler things matter. Like missile types. For example, from what I know, an AIM-120B-equipped F-16 Block 52 is an underdog vs a Su-30MK2, but has an advantage with an AIM-120C7. With an AIM-120D (not yet out), the tiny Falcon will beat the heavy Sukhoi hands down. (I may not know everything though)
Remember – very soon, there will be very many nice used F-16D’s available..
Then, the aircraft which you mentioned, Su-30MKI, is very different from Su-30MK2, with canards and TVC engines both of which are supposed to give a maneuverability advantage. It also has a totally different French/Israeli avionics package.
@ Ole Nkarei
Kindly accept my apologies in case I was kinda hard on the brother. But something tells me I just may know who is. We all leave footprints, digital footprints that is.
Done, bra. Btw, have those birds landed already? All six of them? Price tag was rather steep at US54 a piece – does this include more than the air-frames? Filter your response to avoid compromise, tafadhali!
@ Spartan – your guess abt my background is a miss!
Not hatred. Criticism. Maybe vicious criticism, but still.
If it were mostly those fellows from Belarus flying UPDF’s Mi-24’s and Israeli-upgraded MiG-21’s – what makes you think it’ll be different this time? It certainly doesn’t help that since 2007 Uganda lost its most capable chopper pilot (crashed in Karamoja) and jet pilot (crashed on the way from Garamba).
Where are these UG Sukhoi aces going to emerge from? When there are no jet trainers, to say nothing of advanced jet trainers? I know they’ve spent a huge lot of money on simulators, but those are for type training, not for those with Cessna experience at best. Will they send the boys to be trained in Russia from zero? One, this is not the right approach for a good number of reasons (Risasi, your input please?). Two, these pilots will take 4 years to be ready. So who will fly the Sukhois in the meanwhile? Last time it was also a “temporary” solution..
A 20-year old Western airframe may have as much life in it as a brand new Russian/Chinese airframe. Well, of course these “colonialists” will cut off your parts supply once you “misbehave”. This is a real issue. However, with the Russian-made stuff you have a different problem: they sell the aircraft cheaply, but once you buy it, you have to pay truly ridiculous prices for spares – 10-20 times as much as RuAF pays. And you’ll need plenty of spares; how do you like a 1,000hr engine TBO compared to the 4,500-6,000hr of the Western engines?
Then, a modern airframe if not serviced properly will become unserviceable in 5 years time; a well-maintained airframe with timely overhaul can last 50 years on the other hand.
If someone has to overpay for brand new equipment with some clearly excessive capability (3,000km range aircraft for a country 500km from border to border? what’s this? planning for bombing raids on Cairo?) just because you cannot buy the right used stuff – that’s a sign of confusion and desperation, not strength.
And it’s not only about corruption (did you like my “shooting squad” solution?). It’s also about a total lack of technical knowledge. Believe me, when UPDF/ UG MOD officials approve a purchase of missiles (can’t tell you which missiles and from where, sorry) which are 10 years past shell life expiry, they do it because they don’t know that these things expire – regardless of whether there was some money taken in process or not..
I know what the B-2 is. Nobody can buy. Not in production. No export clearance. $1bn/piece. It was a hyperbole. Creative writing, kind of.
Hope I missed bro. About the criticism, I still maintain that discussing political figures reduces the quality of the discussion. I have an opinion about every leader across the region but you wont hear me pronounce myself. We are professionals, remember.
Col. Peter Nyakairu (R.I.P), the pilot who crashed with Dr. Garang was known to me. I went to school with some of his 20 or so children (yes, he was that old). He had formerly been Obote’s pilot. The point I am making here is that he was a little rusty and that experience isn’t everything. I mean, this was someone with several wives and tens of children to look after. Not exaclty reassuring in a pilot. he certainly wasn’t the best. Most experienced, may be. I did not know Lt. Bosco Opio who died on the way from Garamba, but I can assure you he was just like any other pilot.
I don’t know how you arrive at the conclusion that they were Uganda’s best pilots.
Certainly nobody talked about increasing Uganda’s strength. All Uganda wants is to be able to carry out basic airforce duties. The strenth part of it belies a certain, shall we say, paranoia on your part. And of course i don’t understand when you say we don’t need a 3,000 range aircraft just because Uganda’s strategic depth is less than 500km. Garamba was not in Uganda. UPDF is deployed all over East and Central Africa, from C.A.R, Southern Sudan, Ug, Somalia and God knows where.
I just don’t get your calculation. I mean, just because the effective range of a rifle is 1000 meters doesn’t mean that you only have to shoot at objects at 1000 meters. Spare capacity is always welcome.
Now you aren’t the only naysayer regarding our ability to take the birds off the ground, just visit http://www.militaryphotos.net and you’ll know you have company.
And I wish I could be more specific here. All I can say is I will keep you posted.
If Kony walks 3,000km away from Uganda’s border, why bother about him?
Yep, I visited militaryphotos.net. Liked this one:
“They should start work harder .Su-30 will cost them 22 $ per soul ,100$ is GDP per month in Uganda .”
@ ole Nkarei – As far as I know, 4 scheduled for June, balance towards the year’s end.
Also, SS receives its Mi-17’s:
http://www.ssrresourcecentre.org/2011/02/01/southern-sudan’s-new-air-force-nucleus-of-a-modern-military/
And, it seems the Israelis have agreed to buy attack choppers for SS along with plenty of other stuff. Israel’s hand in SPP (The Sudan Partitioning Project) no longer “invisible”.
There has been quite a flap about the self-serving and very transparent Israeli seduction of the GoSS, designed to expend the ‘’Israeli/Arab’’ front into our backyard through GoSS. Won’t happen, I assure you – GoSS has more to lose by falling for this seduction by David. The Counter-point to David’s insidious attention is the immediately acceptance / integration into EAC of GoSS without the usual preparatory infrastructural (legal, public policy, political, economic) pre-conditions (which still keep Ethiopia and DRC out a while longer), from which GoSS will have innumerable advantages not the least being a ‘’cold peace’’ with North Sudan from the Military Protocols within the EAC. As far as I know, GoSS has not taken the bait, nothing yet on paper, David still ogling!!
Those Mi-17V5 are not configured for aggressor-military functions beyond platforms for quick dispersal of troops into the expansive GoSS in response to the expected localised insurrections resultant from the Referendum and Self-government. Remember the transport infrastructure is non-existent thus far. Also to be useful for the fast transportation of government civil functionaries around the GoSS to project / entrench Government.
If you allow me, Mugwiira, your riposte on those /Ugandan birds is well crafted, albeit using an GPMG. You want to draw Spartan out, not cut him in half, brother!!
I am very much relieved to hear that, Col. SS’s biggest challenge is to govern itself, and we don’t have to provoke the potential saboteurs. The risks of associating with Israel too closely outweigh the short-term benefit; no need for another piece of red cloth for the Arab bull.
Admit being too emotional abt the Su-30 purchase. It just feels wrong, can’t help it.
I am inclined to a bias on your position on those Birds, Mugwiira, but I am also loathe to give offense to Spartan by expressing them too strongly. If those birds were part of an integrated Air Cover for Kenyana, they would ring sweet bells in my head too. But that is still a long way off, at present, and whoever takes this onerous role in the near future will have to go unilaterally – hence the underlying infrastructural fusion of money/men/equipment must established/ exist. This seems kinda unlikely in the next ten years from outside Ethiopia and Kenya, I am afraid!! But lets wait see how M7 projects these birds in the immediate.
Just out of curiosity, what is the effect of a GOSS military on the Geopolitics of the region? Does it pose a threat to Bandit King or maybe TTM enough for them to want Juba to be within striking range?
and someone… Mugwiira, Spartan or even Ole Nkare please tell me how accurate this is…
http://articles.janes.com/extracts/extract/cafrsu/kenys120.html
I will leave Mugwiira and Ole Nkarei to respond on the Janes report. What I can tell you though is that they don’t get a whiff of everything that goes on.
The GoSS military isn’t likely to alter anything in the geopolitics of the region. Ug welcomes a stronger and conventional SPLA to act as a bulwark against Northern Sudan and LRA. UPDF is in South Sudan coz these fellas aren’t yet on their feet militarily.
But like all ‘young states’, expect a few diplomatic incidents steming from border incidents, mainly as result of the inexperince and gangho attitude of a rebel outfit that is yet to reinvent itself into a modern responsible army. Anyone who’s been to juba will tell you there’s no law but the gun.
If only you could lose the references to the ‘bandit king’ and striking ranges of Juba. No one is about to attack anyone. The ‘bandit king’ is the major military benefactor to GoSS. He isn’t about to attack his own friends.
@C. Areba – tis a thin ledge you put us out on with these probes you post, research vs. soft espionage. Me, I would rather read your considered opinions, buddy! As concerns the info you have from ‘’Jane’s’’ – take it like an old African sage sniffing his nose tobacco. This information is gleaned the same way the News Correspondents glean their so-called scoops in Africa – bar-room rumours and ill-concealed misinformation. Cross-reference( with your own sources, if you have any) and validate everything they post. Oh, pls drop the ”Bandit-king” reference I beg, I beg O!!!
Well taken O.K, sometimes i get carried away by the charade and as is human, emotional when things “seem” bad, which may be by chance or by design….
Back to ideas..
-> Me still thinks investing in UAVs is a sure way of leading the pack, cheap, mass produced units. Ask me if im planning to build one just as a Proof of concept 🙂
i have been waiting to hear some analysis on Libya. @Ole nkarei had mentioned earlier on.
My curiosity is what this col Gadaffi could be having up his sleeves. He seems to be having strong military strategies. 30% of his military capabilities wiped out with defections in the military and he has been able to hold and contain both NATO and rebels advancement.
The French and UN in cote d’iviore seem to have shot their feet. I am wary of their intervention and an all out support for this Ouattara guy. Some how i think Gbagbo and his followers has some fundamental concerns of giving up power to Ouattara.
A little a back on Libya. Had these protesters turned rebels acquired weapons much earlier before the “revolution”. in both two countries, i see something a miss.
Vincent, my take – the wiry desert fox has just about wrapped up this thing tight. To break this stalemate that his has created, NATO would need to aggravate this conflict to levels that have dangers of creating a ‘’Somalia’’ on their front porch – there are mortally afraid of this eventuality. Time is not on NATO’s side, and loss of momentum is absolutely fatal for any aggressor-force. Eventually, and unless the American land large bodies of men, not spec-ops by the way, which is unlikely, Benghazi is as good as re-taken in short order. Kaddafi will then call a national assembly of the tribes through whom he had ruled Libya for 40 years and will offer some political / governance concessions of sort – those which he will design to offer. The rebels will scatter in a chaotic flight into Europe further engorging her unwanted African refugee! Decadent Europe lacks the political stomach to put grunts into another Islamic sector-war, already Afghanistan has them on their outer limits, holding on only because the Americans shoulder the most burden in casualties and costs. The European-instigated so-called Arab Upraising is all but over. Your take??
The “King of Kings” will end up in solitary confinement at the Hague.
Time is NOT on his side. Libya has been exporting oil and importing virtually everything else, and it’s now in a state of blockade. Qaddafi can probably hold out for some 3 months till things start falling apart.
However funny the opposition may appear, they are getting stronger still, and Qaddafi is getting weaker.
Qaddafi knows this, and is trying to make a statement betting that the West is under pressure to wind up quickly.
I don’t think his bet will work out.
@ Areba
I read in the current East African that the Tz government is dead serious about the road going through the Serengeti. If you look at the print version there’s a map showing where the road will pass. Guess where; it will run almost parallel to the border between Tz and Kenya.
That means that the road if constructed will stop the herds from going to the Kenyan section of the Masai Mara (anyone with access to DSTV knows how the migration plays out). Apparently, there’s someone who doesn’t want to share tourism revenue from one of the wonders of the world. I don’t see any reason for their insistance to construct this road through the northern fringes of the park.
You mentioned economic blackmail. We in Ug don’t have the stomach, will or capacity to do it. It turns out our bros down south have the Uwezo, sababu na nia ya kujenga hiyo barabara.
I have always written within these pages that threats to Kenya will most likey manifest from other directions and not from the West. I am willing to bet my mama on that projection.
@spartan, interesting that i was going through the same paper at the same time. My thoughts though a bit different on that project. As far as going straight through the serengeti is concerned, dead in the water me thinks.
And at the moment TZ opts to do that , KTB will aggressively start marketing KE as a wildlife conservation nation compared to . Honestly though, i doubt even the donors would touch that project. Already the Deutsch are proposing (including the funding) an alternative.
That said, the tanzanians have some reasons to be annoyed at the Kenyans, what with Kenya marketing itself and Mount Kilimanjaro soo much that to the international markets there is hardly any distinction on its geographical placement?.
Nothing beats the EastAfrican on a Sunday afternoon. I don’t think funding is the problem here. The Chinese would do it in a heartbeat.
The road is not going straight through the Serengeti, if you looked at the map. It’s not as if they don’t care about the Serengeti, they just have a strategy that we can’t put a finger on at the moment. My educated guess is that they want the migration to remain within Tz.
Unless their SWOT analysis of the project was not done, the alternate route makes more sense and the losses will be sustained more by them than by us. That said, its dead in the water in my opinion. it would be foolish to base a billions worth of investment to prevent a neighbor from cashing on tourism dollars.
Since we are deep in east african conflict scenario, can someone with the knowledge tell us about the Great Lakes Mutual Defence Pact?
Hey Jasiri – plenty of stuff on-line. Do some due diligence and the pull specific queries and we see how they are fielded, mate
Jasiri – this is the condensed Paper on the Subject. Happy reading.
Click to access Protocol_on_Non-aggression_and_Mutual_Defence_in_the_Great_Lakes_Region.pdf
MUSEVENI DETERMINED TO GET HIS FIGHTER JETS…..
http://allafrica.com/stories/201104040515.html
Welcome back, Spidey. You’ve been very busy in the ”other Mess’. Heavy political stuff and all. But don’t forget your first love, man!!
There is been discussions about these birds here above since 31st March. Carry on.
just updated myself here and will respond where appropriate..
The ‘’End’’ increasing appears resolutely closer now. All of Gedo about to fall, the offensive in Burdhubo and Bardhere imminent any day now. Little likelihood Al-shabaab will avoid being streamrolled out of southern Somalia very shortly. Lower Juba all but taken and fighters defecting daily to AWS. Galgudug now entrenching semi-autonomy. Renewed push in Mogadishu any day now, a break-out of the AU and Friendlies, retake re-grouping ground for Al-shabaab and reduce its control of CESS on / and Commerce. Stringent enforcement of Semi-autonomy in Puntland and Somaliland, Arms markets now closed and gun-laws for the first time pronounced and enforced. Expected renewed direct action from Ethiopia– the whole country is seething and mobile. Al-shabaab will soon run out of places to hide! Damn!!
These Ugandan food riots are worrisome not least because beyond the political statement there is little they will achieve. I suspect that besigye is being egged on by the Brits judging by the publicity he is enjoying on International Media organisations, which is not surprising considering the USD1.2Billion armament purchase M7 made juzi that escaped their Western Arms Industries. Won’t be surprised if M7 makes no further payments but still takes delivery of the first batch of 2 Units anyway.
I don’t know where you get this ‘first batch of two’ business. The staff were delivered several months ago, not all but more than two. Of course we all know the Americans and their bossom buddies want regime change across a wide swathe of Africa and the middle east.
But their hands are still full in Libya. Will be interested in seeing how they frame their case against M7. But my guess is that they won’t coz the alternative can be far worse.
Hey Spartan, I kinda like your Eastafrican forum moniker better – it is easier on the ears, man. On them birds, let me have another look see then we continue chatting.
The Geopolitical realities at the present time are rapidly evolving and seemingly uncontrolled from a central manipulative point such as was probably envisaged by the Western World when the Tunisian things started. They are scrambling just as hard as everybody else to stay relevant, and not making very good progress judging from the situation that appertains in Eqypt post-mubarak – Eayptians have fully rebelled against the puppet Military Regime implanted by the Americans. This reality of upheaval has effectively taken geopolitical dimensions, grown a life of its own, feeding of itself, because it is reactionary to the unfairness of the World Economic Order that the Western World has entrenched over the past sixty years globally. Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme.
In my humble opinion, the White boys will have nothing to do with the replication of this phenomena in Uganda. We are all captives of this international wave that seems to be sweeping inexorably across our world. If M7 stands against this tide, as he seems determined to, not even his Western friends will save his regime. And the fumbling response of Bashar in Syria is topical and poignant for any authoritarian leader world-wide.
On the contrary, I think your country should be more concerned if the protests come knocking. Thinking of which, there were protests yesterday despite the announcement of the reduction in taxes on fuel. I don’t think Besigye will like this. He had monopolised the limelight and had managed to some degree to portray the government negatively. But business people are losing patience. Protests are bad for business.
Allow me to explain why I think Kenya has more to worry. To begin with, the PEV made your government more sensitive to popular demands. Coupled with internal coalition politics you get something very interesting. I can confidently say that more concessions are on the way. That’s not to say that they are bad or that Ugandans don’t need them. They are easier to get in Kenya. Secondly I don’t think Kenya is held to the same standards as Uganda. Your standards are higher. That means the way demonstrations are handled there will come under heavy scrutiny.
Kenya may be a democracy, but like Nigeria, it’s very fragile. So while there is a widespread feeling in western capitals that change must be formented, fueled and financed in countries that include Uganda, there’s only so much they can do.
There’s no permanent friends or enemies, only interests. So I wouldn’t call the West M7’s ‘friends’. They just find their policies in East and Central Africa region a little easier to implement with him around, despite salivating at the prospect of a ‘more democratic’ Uganda.
I am a little skeptical about solutions to African problems that are prepared in the West. Isn’t it paradoxical that Iraqis are still fighting each other now despite the dictator Saddam having been overthrown and hanged? Or Moi holding Kenya together only for people to kill each other when ‘democracy’ was came. What about Nigeria where the election was hailed as free and fair only for hell to be let lose after the declaration of elections. What is it that we are not getting right.
We need to do some soul searching. Answers to these questions need to be found; Who are we? How is the interplay between tribe, religion and ignorance affecting the implementation of democracy? In democracy does one size fit all?
And more importantly, what does the West hope to gain from a ‘more democratic’ Africa. Luckily, I just may know the answer to this last question.
Indeed you are spot on with your analysis of Kenya’s situation vide this tidal wave of a peoples’ upraising that now sweeping the Third World Economies.
And that is the common denominator to this upheaval – third world ‘’captive economies’’ operating modules of socio-economic empowerment that have proven to be a mere illusions. How is it that Libya with all it’s social welfare programs un-paralleled anywhere in the world is in a state of Civil War this very day? That Egypt has the highest unemployment rate of its educated class anywhere in the world? The contemptible fear of the Gulf-states ruling class at the graphic upheavals in Tunisia, Libya, Yemen and Egypt? Seems to me that every Caucasian Paradigm of Civilisation, Religion, Economics, governance, you-name-it, is verily on trial now. Do these western ideals have universal application and acceptance despite the unequal realities facing the World?
I donno, bra. But what I know from the observations I make in my small little austere office is that Centralised Control of this social upheaval has been lost. No matter how different Governments are addressing this phenomena – from the butt-licking gulf-states of NATO, to Syria Bashir’s belated back-peddling, to Obama and his fumbling retreat, the shameless decadence of Britain and France, and China’s Stoic disengagement, Russian cold snarling – all these are confused reactions of Establishments desperate to find relevance and influence in this fast-unfolding drama.
It would appear that the world is being re-created before our very eyes, and the end product is still without shape. What are we to do, Flying Crane, in attendance?
@ vitruvian – your input would be invaluable now.
Hello ole Nkarei, you’re right Centralized Control of this conflict has been lost, and may not be regained any time soon. And this is because where we are headed is toward a global management of the problem through the UN. Quick example: ICC’s muscular handling of the Kenya case. The world is indeed being recreated through our eyes. For more details of what we are about to witness on the global stage inbox me. I happen to have an early edition.
John, that is not my take about the direction of global conflict resolution developments. From where am seating, it appears clear that the UNSC has committed suicide dramatically and decisively in the past year along. The World is flux and struggling to find a new mechanism to replace the UNSC that recognizes the realities that appertain today which the UN has failed to internalize in its being. ‘One World’ directly through the UN is definitely out now, considering the unfairness of representation and attention this Body has continued to perpetuate. I see regions groupings taking route, devolving into other smaller regions groups through share history or interests. And these then forcing issues on a global scale – including conflict resolution, governance, trade, diplomacy, military, etc. As concerns the ICC, it is doubtful if the ICC will remain relevant post the Kenya-case. There is my two-cents, John!
check out this link ….it confirms there are definitely T72’s floating about in south sudan … source ?
One word would solve many of their problems; Demobilisation. Most of the fighters are clearly over 45. Instilling discipline in them can be a tall order after they’ve known nothing but the gun for over two decades. I am however impressed by their morale.
Let’s not discuss the source now, shall we? Like the officer in the video says, I don’t care where they were from. All I know is that they’re now able to give the marauding horsemen from the north a good beating.
They need to proffessionalise, like fast. Or else you can easily wake up to find the tanks heading South for action. It can’t ever get to that now. Or can it?
Tis never been a secret GoSS took in 2010 a dozen used T72AV, merely token and politically intended to manifest independence to their people – observe closely the state of maintenance of the items on this clip!! These T-72 hard tops are like Potatoes in any rural market! The Al-jazeera tele-journalist is seeking relevance by flogging an old tale hoping to keep the rest of us gullible folks enthralled in this drama of possible conflict – they thrive on our illogical internecine conflicts, after all!
part of the premise of any discussion on this blog regarding SS and its amour abilities has been …… inability to wield such due to alot of mentioned constraints and more importantly the “security dilemma ” possesion of such tanks may create . anyone can make the calculation as to the source …. i just want the basis of any discussion on SS based on the reality of the existence of these tanks . possible misdirection in the past .
You are right Kenyana. Quite a lot of postulations on this and other complex matters are clearly dis-informations with a variety of justifications – but this are a legitimate modus operandis of Military Industry players.
If you will allow me, a contemporary MBT is a monstrously complex ‘’living’’ organism whose incredible destructive effectiveness has a linear collation to it’s crew’s ability to ‘mate’ with it. Nothing a ground hog detests as a modern MBT on the periphery wearing the wrong colors, I tell you!!
And, yes, there is some not very subtle stereotyping , but I think what may be in consideration here is that the SPLA has yet to convert substantially it’s ethos, philosophy from a rag-tag assault-rifle carrier guerrilla outfit, which will take a hell of lot more time to effect than already expired. The civil-infrastructure that underpins the aggressor-deployment of an Armoured Corp with such advanced equipment is really incredibly huge and presently unavailable in GoSS – probably so for another half-decade notwithstanding the oil-money!
Goss has other immediate priorities for their evolving Military infrastructure, and these inglorious monsters are certainly not one of them – not for a long while.
ole Nkarei, I hate having to disagree with you but I think they need these pieces of metal. The aquisition of the tanks is a major morale booster for the troops, if you can call them that.
Let’s just say this is a start, albeit a small one, in their eventual aquisition of an armoured warefare capability.
These aren’t that advanced equipment now, are they? I mean Jonas Savimbi had them, the Sahrawi army seeking to breakaway from Morocco has them. the SPLA is essentially a rebel outfit but they get mobile in them. Hope they find some soldiers short enough to endure the fatigue of using them. Just kidding..
Spartan, you are a hard man indeed!! Recall I have stated above that ‘’Tis never been a secret GoSS took in 2010 a dozen used T72AV, merely token and politically intended to manifest independence to their people’’ .? But that is really all these hard tops presently are, Bra. I have also state earlier that ‘’…whose incredible destructive effectiveness has a linear collation to it’s crew’s ability to ‘mate’ with it’’.. It is for this reason that those UNITA MBTs were so ineffective in combat – the necessary sophistication of both the military and civilian infrastructure was unavailable for his irregular army. Sahrawi has some cast-offs for show, tactically and strategically irrelevant in the Western Saharan Theatre, a pestering fly-on-the wall largely ignored by Morocco’s Military. BTW, your input needed on http://eastafrican.userboard.net/
Sorry I took one or two lines out of context. About the link above, why did you take so long to give it to me? I now know where Risasi has been hiding all along.
Really interesting stuff. Going through it now.
Lobe in a coupla flash-bangers in there,and smoke him out, buddy! There a twin-bro of yours there calling himself ”Flying Crane”!
Read a few entries by that bro. Man, he can really be annoying sometimes. He’s probably also Ugandan and terribly nationalistic, but that’s where our simmilarities end. Wish I knew more about him.
I saw a lot of gadget-worship, questionable rankings otherwise the site is fine. Consider me a fan.
The many Uncle-tomish chaps of our acquaintances might be instructed to read this thread here cited.
http://english.pravda.ru/world/asia/22-04-2011/117677-Wikileaks_The_looting_of_Iraqs_oil-0/
Developments in our Western neighbourhood are perceived by the Military-politico edifice in power there as being so serious as to demand some radically aggressive response. Besigye’s challenge has little to do with ‘’the burden of the Mwanainchi’’ which however coupled with the recent political competition in Uganda’s General Election seemed to have galvanised the latent hostilities of the middle and working class, although M7 appears to have dulled Besigye’s thunder thus far. Unlike in Kenya, M7 has the luxury of an old strategy employed to good effects by erstwhile Strong men – foreign adventures of deadly peril that destructs National dialogue from Internal mundane matters such as Besigye’s Platform! Now there are proposals to argument the UPDF Brigade in Moquadisho by another Brigade of Infantry!! Interesting times ahead for all but the Somali peasants. @ Spartan – your comment?
I am not going to break my promise not to discuss politics here. What KB and company are involved in is politics and that is really above my paygrade.
But I will tell you this – this is not a middle and working class endeavour. It certainly is an elite (the opposition) undertaking capitalising on the recklessness of their young and largely illiterate supporters. I have not seen any Ugandan outside of those brackets pertaking of those demos. It’s more like one of your politicians enlisting the Kibera boys.
Now, dont get me started on the response. We’ve see worse in Kenya. You have a situation where goons surround two harpless police reservists (akin to your APs). They’re unwilling to open fire, they get disarmed and are beaten to death. Just then a colleague of theirs approaches and fires first into the air only to realise the protesters have the weapons they got from the police. He injured four of them while a stray bullet killed a todler. I don’t condone what he did but I don’t know what I would’ve done personally. But I also know this – God have mercy on you if you’re facing the dreaded Kenya Police.
These demos have injured more than 30 policemen, led to loss of property and disrupted life for many.
About the ‘foreign adventures of deadly peril’ tell me, have we gone somewhere else again? Oh, forgive my naivity, you meant Somalia, right. If that’s what you meant, that force is to be augmented not by a brigade but a batallion. Secondly, Ugandan soldiers in that country don’t generate any discussion points here, it’s normal. That force was scheduled to go long before these current events.
You see, UPDF soldiers are trained to be exposed to ‘deadly peril’ and, hopefully, come back home in one piece. And they’ll do so even when their missions are dubbed ‘adventures’
http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=19487&tirsan=3 Interesting piece here
Bro, I stand corrected and am thankful. On all scores, BTW. My heart is rent at the scenario you’ve brought to life of the two young cops and their brothers who came upon their murderers – indeed those goons are lucky they were not facing our GSU chaps here, the difference grounded on the philosophy that grows the Uganda police force, being more integrated into the population from which it is sourced – our Police Force is segregated from our population in tandem with it’s colonial origins and definitions. The argumentation envisaged to UPDF deployment in Moquadisho, from my info, is just about 4,600 men. I could be wrong?
The Uniformed Cop fisting a silenced auto? On crowd-control tasking? Damn! That is worrisome, I dare say! Far as I know, Silenced firearms are not permissible in any law enforcement formation worldwide. @Spartan??
It’s a portable tear gas unit. Almost all cops move with them during crowd conrol situations. But they’ve been abused to a point that there’re now strict guidelines on when to use them.
Ooops!! Gas propelled still? Now, ain’t that somethin’
I don’t know its means of propulsion. All I know is that it’s meant to deliver a gas that irritates the eyes into a crowd that is rowdy, illegally assembled or violent, or a combination of the three.
The police, who are mostly unarmed, don’t tear gas where they are standing, hence the need for a delivery mechanism. Am pretty sure their means of propulsion is harmless otherwise the Kenyan students at Makerere (yeah, they regularly give the police headaches) would be presenting with symptoms at hospitals back home.
@Spartan;
Can I just ask you something? Why is it that Ugandans (and Tanzanians) like so much to compare everything they do or that happens with Kenya/ns? AFAICT, Kenyans, generally, don’t obsess about what you lot get up to or about how you conduct yourselves and yet whenever you go on UG or TZ forums, almost everything seems to be seen through a Kenya shaped prism…and one which usually portrays Kenya/ns in a negative light (like you just did there). I don’t understand this phenomenon, what is it about?
Anyway, say what you will about the Kenyan security services but something like this would never, ever happen in Kenya;
@ IM, I don’t understand the basis of your diatribe. Let me speak for myself and not the other Ugandans and Tanzanians who have riled you. I use Kenya/ns as a reference point because the majority of people here are Kenyans and would understand examples from their country better than, say, those from Cameroon.
I visit lots of blogs, including those hosted by people in North America. While there, rest assured, I have never mentioned Kenya. You may be interested in visiting blogs hosted by Ugandans to see if all they talk about is Kenya.
What’s more, Kenya is the big bro in this region. So maybe people measuring themselves against you isn’t bad after all. It’s a sign that you’re awesome. If I were you I could use a little less sensitivity. This is the age of the East African Community in any case. Ever heard of it?
Now, what happened to Dr. Besigye is not excusable under any circumstances. I believe Ugandans have a lot of soul searching to do and hopefully answers will be got. But Besigye knows exactly what he wants to accomplish and, who knows, he may be succeeding.
You can part yourself on the back now.
We all have reference points in just about everything , both positive and not so positive elements. Both serve a purpose of grounding us firmly one way or the other. And it is not to indicate a lacking of self-worth, or the presence of inferiority complex, brother IM. Do you for instance see the American-culturisation of our Kenyan societal value system to be admission of our inferiority, inadequacy, which? Spartan is dead right, I reckon. And on the Besigne matter as well. Do you recall Reverend Njoya near slaughter outside parliament a decade ago? Or Richard Leakey’s welcome in Nakuru just about the same time? List is endless in Kenya, I dare say!! Anyway,I suggest we keep a fair balance in our exchanges to be able to learn and expose each other with our collective commonwealth. What you say, Bra?
It wasn’t a “diatribe” and @ole Nkarei, I do recall what happened with Njoya…what i’m saying is, it wouldn’t happen now, do you not agree?
@Spartan; good try at being sarky but you haven’t really even approached the question I asked…and it is a question which I am genuinely curious about…I wasn’t just being over sensitive. First of, the people here, generally, know their stuff…you don’t have to relate something to Kenya so that we understand if that’s what you were doing and TBH, it really didn’t read like that. And yes, I do know about the EAC but this is the thing, how is it supposed to work when there is such antagonism expressed to some member states by others (to be fair though, it’s mostly TZ’ians who engage in this kind of thing most…if you read some of their forums, they even refer to Kenyans as Nyang’aus)
@IM, let’s just say the struggle for democracy in Uganda is being played out before our very eyes. Hopefully the outcome will leave us better off, as Ugandans and as East Africans.
For one reason or another, some countries in EA went through this before Uganda. It’s healthy for us to point out, respectfully, the flaws and mistakes made on our journey to democratisation. BTW, do you know that there’s a country in EA where almost everyone in the opposition is slapped with hard-to-win court cases and ultimately forced into exile? This country pays respected journalists mainly in NMG to write flattering stories about it to distract the region for its politics. What do you say about it? Or is it only the politics of Ug that matters.
@Spartan;
I know all this…and just because I mentioned Uganda’s politics doesn’t mean i’m singling you guys out for criticism. Heck, Kenyan politics, in my view, is far far from perfect and there’s a lot we should be doing different. I wouldn’t have a problem with you pointing this out at all. If you know anything about Kenyans, you’ll know that we are often our own harshest critics.
I supposed what riled me (a bit) about your comment is that we are seeing the leader of the opposition in your country being brutalised by the state and instead of just explaining what’s happening on its own terms, you seem to feel the need to bring in how Kenyan police are somehow worse (as if it’s relevant). It’s an attitude i’ve come across far to often from our neighbours and I was just wondering what’s behind it.
Reckon you are shooting at the wrong Al-Qaeda chap, IM. But you make varied point that is accepted by Spartan. Hell, I see this TZ penchant to light up Kenyans and Ugandans even during our regimented Military intercourses too! Tis part of our learning curves on both sides! But generally this sort of thing is expected and healthy in a quaint way, not unlike the boyhood love-hate competition in families that go on to last into their maturity. The path that Spartan and his people are treading has been trod on before, aint nothing wrong with them making inferences and references to it in their desire to take the lessons of it. And vice versa, I say!! Unless of course we must all put our individual fingers into the fire to know that ”fire will burn you O!!”
the attack heli birds from china are now patrolling the economic zone (kenya) of the indian ocean.
thise birds look pretty good.am only doubting the life span of the birds.
its now also emaging that our troops indeed crossed to somalia wen mandera was turned to a battle field.this information has been so elusive even to the media,
Is a post secession war on abyeii better for the south than if it happened before? and what is the whole rationale behind the north threatening not to recognize the south if they unilaterally declare abyeii theirs?
Sat images seem to indicate a build up.
http://www.satsentinel.org/report/range-attack-deployment-saf-attack-helicopters-tanks-near-abyei
I commend the TFG on the recent successe in Somalia, Hudur, Wajid and Baardale(Muqdisho). Seems the Manyanites are doing their job in the Southern Regions…To worrying developments, this riots in Uganda are now getting out of hand. President Museveni on the other hand is feeding tis rioting frenzy with some very, sorry to say this, stupid decisions. The Bessigye arrest is fuelling the riots and the way this are going a full scale revolution may be well in the offing. Now, sould the M7 regime fall, what implications will we face as a region. Rem Ugandan troops play a very criticaly stabilising role in Som and UG has terrorist in it’s prisons which honestly Kenya wants no part in their incaceration, Ole Nkarei, Spartan.
Get a hold of yourself, bro. Sub Saharan Africa is so unlike the Arab region. Otherwise we wouldn’t still have Rob Mugabe around. And the West is aware of that fact. Therefore apart from moral and financial support to the opposition here and there, and condemnation of government ‘brutality’, their hands are pretty tied.
The next battallion of UPDF bound for AMISOM is leaving anytime, if that makes you feel better.
You seem well acquainted with Somalia. Is there a chance of Somaliland, Puntland and Somalia proper reuniting? They don’t come across as very viable states.
I still hear of no major clan revolts against the Shabaab; in the meantime, the rainy season is about to begin. The momentum is fading out.
Without the Shabaab imploding from within, sending these mostly Mareehan troops into Rahanweyn territory is plain crazy.
And, momentum has already faded out in Mogadishu. The Ug request for 4,000 more troops is nothing but a recognition of that, and a recognition of failure to lure any other African nation into the AMISOM adventure.
It’s a big question whether throwing more cannon fodder at the problem will help regain momentum because I doubt the 4,000 troops will be re-trained and re-equipped for urban COIN to a satisfactory level within given time.
Let’s see though.
Mugwiira, you are really sounding a bit like a forlorn Al-Shabaab apologist! Glad you are back on line finally, though! This Somali debate is settled and there is nothing on the ground with any credible Intel outfit that belays that position. Al-shabaab has lost it’s thunder and its tenuous grip on the national psyche of the Somali People is irreversibly broken –it was not ideological but propagated with implied Violence. So now, other players have taken hold manifesting equal and even greater propensity to violence, and hence putting Al-shabaab on its sunset days. It is done, my brother, just a matter of time really to reach closure. The now aggressive political drive by the EAC to supplant IGAD as the primary policy driver in this Somali Sector has dramatically alter the realities and possibilities in this Sector no ends. Just a matter of time, is all!!
@ ole Nkarei – I have just remained as skeptical as ever before about the anti-islamist operations in Somalia. In the meanwhile, you have grown much more optimistic.
I’m not that bothered as to what happens to the Shabaabists. It may easily end up just like Al-Ittihad. My skepticism is rooted in the opinion that the rise of jihadist militancy in Somalia is not a pathology, but a reversion to the historical mean; the colonial/Siad Barre period being just a deviation.
Time will tell indeed.
Not based on a Pathology but is a Reversionist return to ”type”? Come, bra, you are harshly unjust in this assessment, methinks! Not that I see the Jihadists as progressive in manner.
But you are correct that my optimism has grown by leaps as the push against Al-shabaab continues to take shape daily. You too would be if you were desk-bound before a large map of this thing, as I sadly am these days!
Minor correction, though, it is not an anti-islamist operation presently being prosecuted – both opposing sides are essentially Islamic in ”type”. Which would explain the grudging but increasing acceptance of the anti-shabaab forces in the National Psyche of Somalia, comparative to earlier incursions by the Christian-led Ethiopian efforts.
Do go under the radar again buddy! Unless you have gone in-sector.
Re the riots in Uganda. The regime has been intoxicated by the the unfounded expectations that oil cash is just around the corner, and stripped itself of viable economic options.
GOU has been spread thin, and is probably facing its biggest challenge ever. It is this lack of options that has caused the hysterical over-reaction.
Besigye’s provocation has so far worked out well.
The cat is out of the bag. There are now, apparently, stealth choppers.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1383482/Osama-Bin-Laden-dead-Did-US-forces-use-stealth-helicopters-raid.html
chinook, ole Nakrei?
I wonder why they even needed an LRO Black Hawk for this mission. Osama was a true American obsession.
Damn!!
@ ole Nkarei – to re-phrase my thesis: throughout history, the unifying momentum among the Somalis has been found through opposition to Ethiopia. This animosity in turn quite naturally led to an alliance with a more aggressive, expansionist power in the Muslim word. The radical Wahhabites and Salafites of today have basically taken the place which the Ottomans had occupied for centuries (despite being much weaker than the Ottomans).
A Somali’s allegiance is first to his clan, second to the Muslim umma, and only third to the “Somali nation”.
The ICU/Shabaab fit into the pattern quite well. Those however, who want to re-formulate Somalia as an “African nation” (which it never was except for a short post-colonial period), are facing an uphill challenge trying to change this pattern.
However, very few of the protagonists (IGAD, EAC, AU, UN, US, EU etc.) seem to understand this. The only exception is Meles who always hedges his bets and thus carefully promotes disunity among his Somali clientelle.
Sorry I had to chip in before the elder that ole Nkarei is, but I had to ask you this. What is your obsession with Somali affairs? Am seriously getting sick and tired of it all.
No one cares who the Somalis think they are. All we want is for them to adopt some minimum standards of statehood and not disrupt our imports and exports.
Is that too much to ask?
Ok, I promise, not more than two (2) Somalia-related post per month.
I was explaining my reasons for thinking why the jihadist movement in that country may be rather enduring even if it looks weak at the moment.
It’s more complicated than the way you want it to be. For example, did ICU meet your “minimum standards of statehood”? And who sets the standards?
How do the Shabaab disrupt your imports and exports? Or did you mean the pirates? Then, what’s the relationship between these two?
I thought you’ll appreciate my little journey into history, considering that M7, your icon of statesmanship, absolutely enjoys lecturing everyone on the history of Africa.. (no offends, just a little bit of irony)
If by this time you can’t see a relationship between the existence of numerous armed factions in Somalia, the lack of a proper government and piracy, you might as well stop posting altogether.
For some time I struggled to understand your posts, not anymore. Behind all the seemingly sober analysis lies a person who would rather the ‘jihadists’ win. I use quotation marks because only a sympathetic person to their cause would throw around phrases like ‘jihadist movement’ with reckless abandon. When I look at Al Shabaab, I see a ragtag outfit with ties to terrorists, not a ‘jihadist movement’. What is a ‘jihadist movement’ anyway? Where has it succeeded?
Come to think of it, you’ve never used the word ‘terrorist’. Don’t you see any in Somalia?
And don’t pretend you are taking a ‘journey to history’ when in effect you are making a projection about how the ‘jihadists’ are enduring.
If you decide to gloat, do it openly. On your attempts at irony about my ‘icon’, sorry I didn’t see any irony in it. Just google these two queries: Museveni + statesman. Just hating the man doesn’t change what he is.
Forgive my tone, man. I’ve just woken up.
I have tried hard to find historical tethers to your assertions on this Somali Situation, particularly her recent-history inherent propensity to self-destruct, and I am afraid I must substantially disagree, Mugwiira.
I will grant you that we have all miscalculated horribly in our reactions, to whatever degree, and indeed it is uncontestable that the various bodies engaged thus far have fumbled and fudged along. But this is no different from the Nationhood challenges that bedevil most of African countries, particularly because the artificial delineations of these Nation-states has yet to acquire depth of realities – with time stability of these delineations will eventually result. In Somalia as well – given a period of relative calm.
My take is that this maelstrom in Somalia is as artificially grounded as are the various attempts to draw differentiations of cause and objective between various factions and combatants. It is simply put puppeteered chaos, without local (read: Somali) objective nor philosophy neither ideal. It is not hard on the imagination to place blame for this chaotic madness, which I have in previous post here.
In this light therefore, it would be that containing this situation by whatever means from further degeneration ( if this word makes sense!!), and ratcheting down hostile activities no matter their immediate justifications, building some incremental period of military inactivity in progressive geographical depth – will slow this mad wheel now spinning out of control and eventually halt it altogether. At least that is what is loosely defines the Kenya Position currently – might change as this incredibly fluid situation evolves, though!
I have tried hard to find historical grounding to your assertions on this Somali Situation, particularly her recent-history inherent propensity to self-destruct, and I am afraid I must substantially disagree, Mugwiira.
I will grant you that we have all miscalculated horribly in our reactions, to whatever degree, and indeed it is incontestable that the various bodies engaged thus far have fumbled and fudged along.
But this is no different from the Nationhood challenges that bedevil most of African countries, particularly because the artificial delineations of these Nation-states has yet to acquire depth of realities – with time stability of these delineations will eventually result. In Somalia as well – given a period of relative calm.
My take is that this maelstrom in Somalia is as artificially grounded as are the various attempts to draw differentiations of cause and objective between various factions and combatants. It is simply put puppeteered chaos, without local (read: Somali) objective nor philosophy neither ideal. It is not hard on the imagination to place blame for this chaotic madness, which I have in previous post here.
In this light therefore, it would be that containing this situation by whatever means from further degeneration ( if this word makes sense!!), and ratcheting down hostile activities no matter their immediate justifications, building some incremental period of military inactivity in progressive geographical depth – will slow this mad wheel now spinning out of control and eventually halt it altogether. At least that is what is loosely defines the Kenya Position currently – might change as this incredibly fluid situation evolves, though!
In my opinion, eliminate the Eritrea factor and you have the Shabab on it’s knees.
That is exactly the complicating factor in this madness – Eritrea’s clear failure to redefine herself away from her historical Ethiopian essence. And because her preoccupation to resistance of this essence lasted that long and seemed to give her direction and purpose, Eritrea has yet to break this mound of an Ethiopian-hegemony resistance entity, and come of her own.
Eritrea’s Military Spending 2009 stands at just under 47% of her very tiny GDP and little else goes into social-economic development. Her population is fluidly militarized by a determined and structured indoctrination that continues post independence as if the War of Liberation is still on.
So, how does what you suggest Jasiri become realized, when Eritrea stoically holds on to her hated Ethiopia Essence while fighting it at all levels as if without this she would lack of an identity, a purpose, a direction? Re-unite is some form of Loose Confederation? Eeiish!!
Carrot aproach colonel. Igad has treated Eritrea as the pariah and Eritrea in turn has decided to be the village bully. With a good enough offer from Kenya, it ill drop the Shabab cause like hot charcoal n tow the new line. That offer thoug must take into account it’s longstanding enmity with Ethiopia. If all else fails, we could always spray Doom on the chief pest.
which i might add is a way better solution.
What you suggest (carrot) has been pushed and flogged by everyone you can think of, including a clear and broad Zenawi’s concession that actually borders on a capitulation to Eritrea of sorts! A lot of chaps are persuaded this illogical anti-Ethiopia ideology may be a projection of the content of the Leadership at the Apex of the Military-Political edifice in Eritrea. It has never been certain what indeed is her beef with Ethiopia (or Zenawi?).
As for the Doom-spray idea, that too has been on the table for years, buddy. But, Eritrea manifests a national death-wish mentality, some sort of ‘’Samson-nian’’ (!!) thinking. I personally think some loose confederation with Ethiopia may be the only thing that will work with Eritrea!
Mugwiira??
Were the underlying issues not so grave, the Todonyang killings of Kenyans, these stringent vilification of the Military would be hilariously ignorant. Lets conceptualize the issues Germaine here – strategically, which is how Armed Forces MUST always be employed. 1. These incursions in Turkana / NFDs are not manifestations of Military failure but historical and current civil / political failures, 2. The physical ‘’Border’’ is definitely not ‘’Demographic’’, 3. Militarization of any border creates an opposing Counter-Force, perpetual Military tension, disruptive covert extreme-prejudice activities, disruption to economic-social programs, large-scale displacement of populations, 4. Any kDoD deployments, in conformity to its Charter, MUST BE responsive to clear / present Military threat matrixes, i.e an Ethiopian government-inspired egress, or the Al-shabaab in Mandera at the least, not some across-the-border tribal militia historically ranged against their Kenyan Cousins; nor can it be against speculative threats of the nebulous sorts such as those being presently purveyed by an excitable political class.5. Against such bands, the Law-enforcement Agencies and Diplomacy ( Civilian / Military) has leadership – only a Declaration of War or of a State of Emergency or under the proviso of Assistance to Civilian Authorities in very specific extreme circumstances, within the strict provisions of the Constitution, could engage the Military in domestic-theater Overt-Armed-Actions, subsequently. Voila my two-cents!!
We are, thank goodness, one of the few (if not the only) states in the region where the Military has traditionally been and remains subject to Civillian Rule, and where the two are not an amorphous and indistinguishable mass of party apartchiks. This is something every Kenyan must cherish and protect at all costs. It is part of Wanjiku’s legacy. Consequently, the Military cannot solve this matter on its own initiative. It’s up to the politicos. This is clear and as it should be.
Traditionally, the Military are the most patriotic class of any country and the first to vociferate whenever national sovereignty or territorial integrity are violated. Or should be. The Military has channels for expressing such concern to the Civilian Authorities without breaching their oath or causing public unease. And it is proper that the Civilian Authorities should take such concern into consideration. However, whether they act or not remains their prerogative.
I agree with Tom, therefore, that the events at our northern border cannot be considered a failure of the Military, unless the Civilian Authorities gave them the mandate to mop up the mess and they failed to do so. I am not aware of such mandate being given. It is clearly the failure of the Executive to take the necessary steps to protect Kenyan lives, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
But I don’t agree with everything you say, Tom. Political failures they may be and until the politicos change tact they will continue to be so. If, however, that were to change, it is the Military bulldog (non-pejorative, to be clear) that will be unleashed to implement that change. Our Constitution, which we are all bound to uphold, demands it. Our Defence Forces, the Katiba proclaims, are responsible for the defence and protection of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic. They may be deployed to restore peace in any part of Kenya affected by unrest or instability. And yes, only with the approval of the National Assembly. Nowhere are there any provisions requiring that threat to be government-inspired. The Constitution does not absolve across-the-border tribal militia with historical grievances from extreme prejudice. Our borders are, indeed, colonial rather than demographic, and would it not be wonderful if we could reach an accommodation with our neighbours that would resolve such issues. But we have not. And for the time being, the sovereignty of our nation and the lives of our citizens are at stake.
Sovereignty. A word that has been much maligned. I use it in its fullest sense. Every time our border is breached, whether by Ethiopian tribesmen, Al Shabaab militants or M7’s thugs taking a stroll on Migingo, I consider our sovereignty having been compromised. And I smile not upon those that should act but do not.
Our borders are already militarised. The deaths of hundreds of Kenyans in the north, the east, the west tell me so. A clear and present threat if ever I saw one. If not the citizens, who or what are the Military supposed to protect? We might not be facing Sukhois and battle tanks yet, but a Kalshnikov will kill me just as efficiently.
Do we shy away from confrontation? From protecting our Turkana bretheren – nay, ourselves – for fear of military tension, extreme prejudice, socio-economic disruption, population displacement? Which of these tribulations are the Turkana – full-blooded Kenyans – not already experiencing?
Whether it is due to lack of political will, diplomatic ineptitude or the incompetence of our law enforcement agencies, the fact remains that Kenyans are dying are continue to die. The hands of the Military are tied until they are called upon to act. But if and when they are called upon to do their lawful and constitutional duty, I have no doubt they will do so swiftly and with extreme efficiency. I expect no less of them.
@ Vitruvian, can you ever put your hands on a keyboard and not take a swipe at M7? Anyway, two issues here. One, you mention, with high regard I must add, your Katiba and how it keeps your boys in Barracks, which is all fine. Every dog needs to be kept on a leash after all. But in the same breadth you decry the failure of the army to be used to protect Kenyans. Which is it, bro?
This region has been lucky to have sobre leaders in Kenya whenever it has been tested. For you to think that Kenya would so easily go to war with Ethiopia just because a few Turkana have died from cross-border clashes is really jumping the gun.
Now, I’ve also wondered over and over what it takes to get those boys to put on their boots. Armies are supposed to protect their citizens from all forces, both foreign and local. I will never understand how the army can stay in barracks when 1500 people are being butchered. You may take solace in the thinking that you consider your country a ‘democracy’ but even in the western democracies their katibas allow for the declaration of martial law where the army takes over when everything else has failed.
At the risk of appearing like a military state, Uganda will contine to deploy its ‘thugs’ to avert impending anarchy and assert its territorial sovereignity.
Brother Spartan, blame it on me, but you missed the point entirely. You have misread (perhaps chosen to misunderstand) my words. Allow me, then, to clarify. But first things first.
If you are under the impression that I am not particularly fond of your Führer and his ilk (across the continent), I will not disappoint you. He is from a bygone era, the epitome of African feudalism, kleptocracy and oppression. He is a political dinosaur on a continent populated by young, progressive, dynamic Africans, and the single greatest obstacle to East African unity. He will go down in history but he certainly isn’t an historic figure. His greatest achievement has been to rule for longer than Moi. My loathing is not limited to him. You will find me no kinder to any Kenyan (or other) leader that represents the same kind of backwardness, and we have plenty of those. You may debase them at will as you have proven your proficiency and gusto in that. My contempt does not extend to Uganda or my Ugandan brothers and sisters, or any of our neighbours, of whom I am exceedingly fond. Nor to you, Brother Spartan, unless you are indeed merely another pawn on Museveni’s chessboard.
But my response to Tom was never about Museveni. The latter was a passing reference.
Perhaps my writing was a tad nebulous as my arguments were philosophical, or perhaps the big words were confusing. I thought I was clear about my belief that the military must always be subject to civilian rule and expressed my disappointment at the fact that the latter had failed to protect Kenyan lives and sovereignty. My argument was that there exist constitutional provisions that would allow the military to be deployed in this case, though I did not implicitly advocate it. Which part of this did you not understand? It would certainly be preferable if the law enforcement agencies, of which the ruthlessly efficient General Service Unit are a part, were to do the job, but they too are subject to (the lack of) political will. Therein lies the problem. And it is at the politicos that the fire and brimstone was hurled.
It is also my contention that we cannot afford to appear complacent at the first show of might, which, in the face of a regional behemoth such as the KDF, the Merile tribesmen actually aren’t. It would encourage others to follow suit. Museveni’s blitzkrieg of the football pitch-sized Migingo, for example.
I dunno. Somehow, I doubt Addis would read a punitive action against a herd of Merile tribesmen who just slaughtered and occupied an entire Kenyan village as a declaration of war. I do in fact advocate diplomacy. But I’ll also turn Clausewitzian on you and remind you that war is merely an extension of politics. I do not yearn for war with Ethiopia, or anyone for that matter. But I do believe that my country (or any other) should take care of its own. Thus, I take objection at the way you trivialise human life, whatever passport it may carry. “Just because a few Turkana have died?!” That’s serisously borderline.
Finally, Brother Spartan, allow me to say the following: Kenyan soldiers might have remained in their barracks whilst thousands of Kenyans were dying. As a disciplined rather than temperamental force they resisted the urge to escalate a situation that was bad already. But one of the reasons we are all glad they did so is that when Ugandan troops left their barracks not really that long ago they left in their wake 500,000 dead Ugandans. Correction: “just” 500,000 dead Ugandans.
With me, at least, that memory is painfully fresh. Kudos to our uniformed men and women.
Forgive me for misunderstanding the ‘big words’ and philosophical writing you used. Maybe it was the reserved use of paragraphs. Something just confused me, I just can’t put my fingers on it. I guess I will remain confused, what with a ‘regional behemoth’ that simply won’t stand up to its duties.
I will not be drawn into a comparison of the armed forces of the region, but deep down inside each country knows its capabilities and weaknesses. What’s more, we are unlikely to use force against each other.
Vitruvian, every society ‘deserves’ the leaders it gets. That’s because leaders are the embodiement of the maturity, aspirations, fears etc of the populations from which they are drawn. May be, just may be, Uganda deserves M7 as much as Kenya deserved Moi in the 90s. we can’t all move at the same pace. When a critical mass is achieved for change, change will take place. And no one can stand in its way.
Uganda lost thousands of people to the wars before 1986 and their deaths weren’t in vain. You may trivialise their deaths all you want but it won’t explain the KDF’s aversion to the duty they are trained and paid to do.
…ad nauseam.
…pessima es disputator
What about those thousands who died in wars after 1986?
Like the ADF war?
@ Spartan – terrorism is a method, radical islamism is an ideology. Agreeing that someone is a terrorist does not help at all to understand his motivations/ideology. On the “jihadist movement”, I’d suggest you get acquainted with this gentleman and his works:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Scheuer
The reasons for the US involvement in the Arab world and the resultant violence it elicits have been well documented outside the US, and Michael Scheuer is right on target. The main argument in his worldview is that the US can avoid the wrath of the likes of Al Qaeda if they stopped carrying the can for Israel and stayed out of Arab affairs. The US probably know this and much more.
The US, being the consumer of a quarter of the world’s oil production and the economy most dependent on the multinational companies has to tailor its foreign policy as such. Prominent Americans agree as much in a an acclaimed documentary called “Why We Fight’ by Eugene Jarecki.
The way I see it, no side is willing to budge. Question is, if the US left the Arab world to its own devices, would radical islamists stop there?
@ Jasiri – it would’ve been easy if Eritrea was THE problem, but it’s not:
http://reliefweb.int/node/400074
(go to Par. 45)
Traditionally, Eritrea was a sponsor to Hizbul Islam, not the Shabaab.
Vitruvian, you were missed, as were your valued and weighty contributions to our collective worth. It is not possible to fault the general philosophy you press in your post, the frustrations you express encapsulates my own and those of a great number of Uniforms too. kDoD is present and capable, at all facets and all levels, and the urge to act decisively is stiflingly overwhelming. We lack not motivation, nor leadership both martial and politico. In earlier posts, I recall we aerated the concept of Military Doctrines to show differentiations between the Militaries of the Region – definition, deployment, postures and histories. Perhaps you may recall these conversations, brother Vitruvian to contextualize the variance of opinion on this subject between you and brother Spartan.
You are dead on when you expound on the critical facet of civilian oversight over Martial formations, that correctly subjugate Kenya’s Military Policy to her Foreign Policy(as most democracies would configure it) – as opposed to it being a projection of Domestic Policy (such as M7 has pursued during his presidency with astounding results), or even worse where Foreign Policy proceeds from a Military Policy as exemplified by Hitler, Stalin, Zionist Israel, and the Tall-thin-one in later days. Each of these have inherent weaknesses to them; in the first Scenario it is the ever-present danger of a dilution of the Military Perspective by the infusion of civilian perceptions of what are essentially Military threats/issues; for the other two, it is the dangerous self-perpetuation of conflict and chaos which in the first instance gave essence to their utilization – to break into a strong-man house you must have the means to bind him. It is important to bear in mind that the single most organized and capable entity in any Nation is the Military, with a disproportionate propensity (comparative to Civil Organizations) to violence, and against which even democratic ideals would not prevail without clear legislated and constitutional safeguards against Martial suffocation. You cannot eat your cake and have it (!!??), as the saying goes.
How do democracies struggle to deal with this lacuna that proceeds from this necessary Civilian Oversight on the Military? 1. By very conscious and deliberately vigilant Policies and Structures that maintaina rather thin brittle line between the Politico and Martial Establishment – with some infractions every so often. 2. The Politico Establishmentcreates and maintains a ‘’militarized’’ Civilian Police Element directly under the Politico Establishment with a express mandate to prosecuting Civil Order. 3. There are many other variations and developments from these two, pertinent to each nation, but the essential underpinning remains the very clear definition of the functions / functioning of each armed elements under Civilian Oversight – between the Policing of Civilian Order and the dispassionate Prosecution of Armed Conflict (which ought to be the only fashion in which Armed Forces are utilized by Society). As diverse as night and day, the more defined the distinction the better. May I mention that the Police Mandate is exhaustively defined in detail in various civil instruments such as the Penal Code, while kDoD operates along a generalized and loose pronouncement of lethal force utilization.
For Kenya, the situation at our borders is complicated no ends by the seamlessdemographies and common histories across these borders, which have immense politico undertones across borders. So that sending in some Deltas or the Ranger strike force across Liboi to overtly exertretribution against say the Degodia in Somalia, is dangerously irresponsible if G2 failed to appropriately factor in the possibilities that the kDoDmay be reactingto puppeteeredaggression by elements across the border who are in conflict with their rivals across the bordersfor just such a reaction – the kDoD would then be a pawn in a conflict that has little to do with Kenya. The risk of an expanded / exported self-perpetuating conflagration consequently is very real. As concerns the Todonyan Incident, nothing has yet been written in Kenya’s selectively myopicMedia about this well documented confrontational History between Turkana and Merilethat preceded this latest Merile Attack. Within this context, I reckon it correct that generalized Military Action across the Border MUST a last resort – or left to specialized Units in covert engagements. Deploying the Armed Forces internally is clear recognition of a failure in the Civilian Policing Mandate, IS SHORT-TERM IN EFFECTIVENESS AND not to be lightly advised.
These not-so-regular incursions across borders with such shared demographies are really a Policing Mandate in which there exists greater Civilian Oversight and involvement than the in reactive Militarydeployment – what would thenfollow upon an extermination of a thousand poorly armed Merile villagers? Beyond ‘’legalizing’’ the preceding armed aggression by the Turkana / Adjuran (i.e) across our Borders? And what would be expected of kDoD when Ethiopian Military should then carry out a reactive egress into Turkana in response to one of Turkana’s many pillaging of their Merile Cousins? Following the deployment of elements of the 20th Para against the Sabaot brigands, the UPDF mobilized to the Border, and are still there menacing the Locals years after the Paras withdrew back to Barracks. The task of this Nation is to empower the Kenya Police with equipment, funding, structures and facilities to properly discharge its Mandate. It is not to efface the necessary separation line between Civil and Martial entities with the consequences I have enumerated above. My apologies for the rumbling reply – in duress!!
Vitruvian, you were missed, as were your valued and weighty contributions to our collective worth. It is not possible to fault the general philosophy you press in your post, the frustrations you express encapsulates my own and those of a great number of Uniforms too. kDoD is present and capable, at all facets and all levels, and the urge to act decisively is stiflingly overwhelming. We lack not motivation, nor leadership both martial and politico. In earlier posts, I recall we aerated the concept of Military Doctrines to show differentiations between the Militaries of the Region – definition, deployment, postures and histories. Perhaps you may recall these conversations, brother Vitruvian to contextualize the variance of opinion on this subject between you and brother Spartan.
You are dead on when you expound on the critical facet of civilian oversight over Martial formations, that correctly subjugate Kenya’s Military Policy to her Foreign Policy(as most democracies would configure it) – as opposed to it being a projection of Domestic Policy (such as M7 has pursued during his presidency with astounding results), or even worse where Foreign Policy proceeds from a Military Policy as exemplified by Hitler, Stalin, Zionist Israel, and the Tall-thin-one in later days. Each of these have inherent weaknesses to them; in the first Scenario it is the ever-present danger of a dilution of the Military Perspective by the infusion of civilian perceptions of what are essentially Military threats/issues; for the other two, it is the dangerous self-perpetuation of conflict and chaos which in the first instance gave essence to their utilization – to break into a strong-man house you must have the means to bind him. It is important to bear in mind that the single most organized and capable entity in any Nation is the Military, with a disproportionate propensity (comparative to Civil Organizations) to violence, and against which even democratic ideals would not prevail without clear legislated and constitutional safeguards against Martial suffocation. You cannot eat your cake and have it (!!??), as the saying goes.
How do democracies struggle to deal with this lacuna that proceeds from this necessary Civilian Oversight on the Military? 1. By very conscious and deliberately vigilant Policies and Structures that maintain a rather thin brittle line between the Politico and Martial Establishment – with some infractions every so often. 2. The Politico Establishment creates and maintains a ‘’militarized’’ Civilian Police Element directly under the Politico Establishment with a express mandate to prosecuting Civil Order. 3. There are many other variations and developments from these two, pertinent to each nation, but the essential underpinning remains the very clear definition of the functions / functioning of each armed elements under Civilian Oversight – between the Policing of Civilian Order and the dispassionate Prosecution of Armed Conflict (which ought to be the only fashion in which Armed Forces are utilized by Society). As diverse as night and day, the more defined the distinction the better. May I mention that the Police Mandate is exhaustively defined in detail in various civil instruments such as the Penal Code, while kDoD operates along a generalized and loose pronouncement of lethal force utilization.
For Kenya, the situation at our borders is complicated no ends by the seamless demographies and common histories across these borders, which have immense politico undertones across borders. So that sending in some Deltas or the Ranger strike force across Liboi to overtly exert retribution against say the Degodia in Somalia, is dangerously irresponsible if G2 failed to appropriately factor in the possibilities that the kDoD may be reacting to puppeteered aggression by elements across the border who are in conflict with their rivals across the borders for just such a reaction – the kDoD would then be a pawn in a conflict that has little to do with Kenya. The risk of an expanded / exported self-perpetuating conflagration consequently is very real. As concerns the Todonyan Incident, nothing has yet been written in Kenya’s selectively myopic Media about this well documented confrontational History between Turkana and Merille that preceded this latest Merille Attack. Within this context, I reckon it correct that generalized Military Action across the Border MUST a last resort – or left to specialized Units in covert engagements. Deploying the Armed Forces internally is clear recognition of a failure in the Civilian Policing Mandate, IS SHORT-TERM IN EFFECTIVENESS AND not to be lightly advised.
These not-so-regular incursions across borders with such shared demographies are really a Policing Mandate in which there exists greater Civilian Oversight and involvement than the in reactive Military deployment – what would then follow upon an extermination of a thousand poorly armed Merille villagers? Beyond ‘’legalizing’’ the preceding armed aggression by the Turkana / Adjuran (i.e) across our Borders? And what would be expected of kDoD when Ethiopian Military should then carry out a reactive egress into Turkana in response to one of Turkana’s many pillaging of their Merille Cousins? Following the deployment of elements of the 20th Para against the Sabaot brigands, the UPDF mobilized to the Border, and are still there menacing the Locals years after the Paras withdrew back to Barracks.
The task of this Nation is to empower the Kenya Police with equipment, funding, structures and facilities to properly discharge its Mandate. It is not to efface the necessary separation line between Civil and Martial entities with the consequences I have enumerated above.
My apologies for the rumbling reply – under duress.
Quite an insight. Could you please elaborate more on the UPDF’s deployment being an extension of domestic policy. Sounds interesting.
The Pokot and Sabot have killed more UPDF soldiers in the past three years than any other armed adversary, including the Al Shabaab, no less. They were deployed there, in my opinion, to discourage the Sabot incursions, not as a response to KDF. And I think that’s why they never left even afters your paras withdrew.
Brother Spartan, you display a blind faith in the face of fact that can be narrowed down to a very few options. This is good, in the sense that you are doing your country a much needed service.
The conversation strings above display is an innate distrust of each other, our long history and common aspirations notwithstanding. What could be the cause of that, I wonder?
Duplicitous leaders, perhaps, making overtures to a common market, a (God forbid!) common currency and even political union, yet the underlying current seems to be one of hegemony and personal deification. We are Medieval indeed.
Divided we stand and so we shall fall, music to the ears of those who then waltz in and make off with the pickings.
Look, I’ll be frank with you. Our leaders are just as rotten as yours. Yours just happens to be the pick of the crop. But at least I have an idea of when and how my leaders will be replaced.
No one lives forever. Dictatorship, no matter how benevolent or enlightened, does not accommodate for succession. With no genuine mechanisms to facilitate a popular transition, the power vacuum left behind will ignite an implosion of epic proportions. Particularly considering that your country is as polarised as mine. I shudder at the implications of a politicised military stepping in then. And it’s back to the Stone Age. Not good for anyone in the region.
Brother Spartan, I know you appreciate that the ideals we exchange are not personal, because this would detract their value and purpose.
That said, and being a iinformed student of the Military History of this region, I am unequivocal that M7 has sat on the Military Edifice he constructed to seize power for an abnormally long period of twenty-some years simply by not altering one bit it’s defining Military Doctrine. In his words, this is a popular ‘Movement’ , an army of liberation even to this very day.
And despite all ‘’modernization’’ efforts, the UPDF has remained a Armed Militia of the Politico ruling class, that mobilizes the general population to a martial cause. It is this reason that the Army has remained centrally critical in the Politico-establishment, and has such a stranglehold on other facets of National Life. All military activities internally and across-borders undertaken thus far by the UPDF including the present deployment in Moquadisho lack real Strategic Value / Depth, and have more domestic political importance, a flaunting (to the it’s population) of the ruling class’s monopoly to wide-scale violence.
It is one of the many reasons why the Migingo Egress has not merited strategic response from KDF / kDoD thus far.
Vitruvian has rather telling commentary of this situation, which I find resonates with me too.
NOW guys tell me where this will lead to..i would have though prevention is better than cure..now they failed to act on intell reports ..that these tribesmen were coming and now we have this task of removing armed men from our soil.
THIS REPRESENTS FAILURE OF THE EXECUTIVE AND lack of proactive military strategy by the kenyan planners..who preffer to sit in the barracks and theorize while our borders are abused with impunity.kenyans have taken enough of this shit and i can tell you they are very upset.
http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/Kenyanews/Kenya-sends-army-to-Ethiopia-border-12844.html
Kenya sends army to Ethiopia border
BY LABAN WANAMBISI
Updated : 7 hours and ago
NAIROBI, Kenya, May 18 – Army personnel have been dispatched to the Kenya-Ethiopia border following recent raids by Merille tribesmen who killed more than 40 people.
Prime Minister Raila Odinga told Parliament on Wednesday afternoon that the army is under firm instructions to relocate more than 900 Merille tribesmen who have settled on the Kenyan territory.
“For a start, the Government has directed the Ministry of State for Provincial Administration and Internal Security, in conjunction with the Ministry of State for Defense to ensure the 2,500 Merilles residing in the River Omo Delta are relocated to Ethiopia,” he said.
The PM further added; “The Government has beefed up security along the Kenya-Ethiopia border at Todonyang. We have relocated the GSU and AP camps at Todonyang to the actual border point 14 kilometres away to counter any planned attacks between the two communities.”
The move follows the killings of 40 people who were shot dead when the Merille militiamen raided a remote village near Lake Turkana and shot indiscriminately at fishermen and a group of men and women who had gone shopping at a border town in the neighbouring country.
But even as the Premier announced the measures taken by the government to deter external aggression at the border points, MPs reprimanded him, saying the government had neglected communities living at the border.
“When you get to our waters, one single pirate can chase away our navy, when you go to the North Eastern Province the Al Shabab are there, when you go to Migingo we are not sure who is in charge, despite the money we spend on the Department of Defence our borders are still not secure from any front what is the problem?” posed Rangwe MP Martin Oginde.
“Can the PM tell this House why the government is not prepared to face this problem head on?” Kandara MP James Maina wondered.
The PM found himself in more trouble when he revealed that the security agencies had failed to act on intelligence reports warning of retaliatory attacks by Merille tribesmen in Turkana.
“It would have been suicidal for Kenyan forces to retaliate against the heavily armed militia given that they were outnumbered. He said the area is served by a police post manned by eight regular police officers with the support of a company of 60 GSU personnel,” he said.
Igembe South MP Mithika Linturi termed the admission as sad. “I am confused by this matter, why was there no directional command given to the army to protect our boders yet they had this information?”
“These revelations are very serious, that the Merilles are in Kenya illegally and they can afford to attack the Kenyans and move back to their place of stay which is within Kenya and the PM can afford to tell this House that the Government was helpless,” added Mosop MP David Koech
Mr Odinga said he was shocked when he and Ministerial delegation he had led to Todonyang one week ago were denied access to the Omo-Turkana delta which he said was well within the Kenya side of the Kenya-Ethiopia border because the Merille were preparing the land for cultivation.
“In the adjacent arid land, the Turkana were languishing for lack of food. Even the District Commissioner could not access the delta. Neither could our security officers. I was informed that about 2,500 Merille live here, 900 among them armed militia. They use the arms kill to our citizens while exploiting our land and water resources,” he said.
The Government has equally directed the Ministries of Provincial Administration and that of Lands and Ministry of Foreign Affairs to ensure the broken and dilapidated boundary beacons are repaired.
The Government has further directed the upgrading of the Todonyang Police Post to a Police Station and provide it with necessary facilities and equipment.
“The Ministry of State for Immigration and Registration of Persons will also move in at set up the border control at the actual border point to strengthen border surveillance and control,” he added.
In addition, the Government has vetted responsible and respected Turkana men who will immediately start working with Kenya Police Reserves along the border.
Mr Odinga further announced they plan to meet their Ethiopian counterparts at a Joint Ministerial Consultative meeting to be held in Addis Ababa between May 31 and June 2, to seek a joint and lasting solution to this border menace.
He said the meeting will be preceded by Joint Kenya-Ethiopia Border Commissioners’ meeting in Kenya on 25th and 26th May.
The Government said it plans to initiate major programmes for development of the Turkana region, in addition to the Sh27 million released to the Turkana County for drought mitigation measures in January.
“For example, the Government is currently expanding a number of irrigation schemes in Turkana East and South, which in total cover 5,800 acres. When these schemes are completed, 145,000 bags of maize will be harvested annually,” he said.
“If the drought persists for a further six months, the Government shall spend another Sh130 million by June 2011,” said the Premier
Long time no hear, Spidey.
I cannot tell you what this will lead but it is long overdue. It would seem that it takes a massacre of innocents to rouse our politicians.
I get the gist of Tom’s argument vis-a-vis the potential fallout resulting from a deployment of KDF at our borders and the perceived provocation that might generate. But why have an army at all if not to protect our borders and citizens? There is no place on this planet where the defense of a border and of the lives and livelihood of people living in its vicinity can be perceived as provocation. Not with those 40 graves still so fresh.
This is not a matter of diplomacy. It is not an international incident. It happened within our borders. Governments that take their responsibility to their citizens seriously would go to war for much less than that.
I’m a hawk on this one.
@vitruvian
was it not the same area that kenyan military lost a number of men in a vicious attack less than a 18 months ago?..and the defence spokesman denied the whole thing?no wonder the warriors are now boistrously entering kenyan territory because they know nothing will happen to them.
EVEN when the intelligence was there …nothing was done…all they needed was to just a show of force around the area and this could have detered these marrauding peasants..entering the area…now it will cost us more money and possibly more lives just to get rid of them.
Spidey, this is why I advocate a response EVERY time an infringement is made. Laxity will only encourage the offence to be repeated and others to be committed. Migingo was swept under the carpet, now they’re taking Ugingo. Killings at our northern border were ignored, now we’re facing massacres. Al Shabaab will be detonating bombs in our cities next. Why not? Who’s going to do anything about it anyway. I agree with you about doing this the Israeli way. It is the only way to hold on to the confidence of the wananchi. Take a quick tour through the Kenyan blogs, forums and papers. Kenyans demand action and they want it now! Our dogs of war must be unleashed. USD 600 million is a bit too much for parades only.
Hey Spidey, welcome back from ‘’that-other-place’’ where you transferred your allegiance, buddy. Please stay awhile this time.
Listen, we must not generate an out of context debate here. And that is not to gainsay your emotive assertions that more ought to have been done, ought to be done even now, to justify the huge sacrifice of Kenyans on their Military. Doggone it, you will not find any uniforms at variance with this view.
But realistically, without wearing these now-fashionable political blinkers ( that is the function of the Politicos, brothers), it is not practical nor admissible infact that any self-respecting Nation with pretensions to modern-democracy ambitions such as ourselves, should let loose its Army to massacre a bunch of ill-armed tribal group with such narrow motivation as the Merille. Under international law, and particularly bearing in mind the history and demographics of this border region, there does not exist any cut-and-dried distinctions between the rights of it’s citizenry and those of it’s relatives across an international border. It is due to this complex matrix that such indigene rights of Kenyans to their properties and security MUST BE in the purview of the Civilian Policing Authorities, gentlemen. I am ashamed that this was not done, not least because this information was correctly and pre-emptively generated and transmitted to all civilian and military agencies. But I assure you the usage of the Military in this sort of business, no matter the political pronouncements you get to hear, will not generate the results expected pined for here.
The solution is to enable the Police Mandate to execution, as I have stated above. I know for a fact that Spidey agrees with me on this. And I am very hopeful there has been sufficient political goodwill and attention generated, sadly, by this horrific incident in Todonyang.
I am not calling for a pound of flesh, Tom, though nothing will have been achieved without a punitive element. Firm action, not retaliatory reaction. The inviolability of our borders and the sanctity of our lives must be impressed upon our own citizens as well as would-be aggressors. Surely the military, with all its might and armour, can achieve such an impression that without resorting to wholesale slaughter.
We are plagued with corruption and poverty. We’re running out of food and fuel. It takes international justice to deal with impunity. Compound this with the capitulation of our sovereignty and personal security, actual or perceived, and it is Kenya, not Uganda, that may follow Tunisia and Egypt.
I totaly agree with ole nkerai..but all i can say is that times have changed.these merille i hear were armed and encouraged by their government to violet our territory.900 to 1000 armed men consists a formidable fire power however crude…all we need is an aggressive border patrol regime with adequate backup to snuff out any one with intentions..i am sure a well armed GSU and ADMIN police unit or even game rangers working in border areas properly motivated with adequate backup from the main army not far from reach will deter such incursions..i mean once their is an SOS the big boys must be within the theatre to help within the hour just like ISRAEL does.we have the equipment and the men..to me its just a question of misplaced priorities…people working in frontier locations must be told that its not just a job but a sacred duty. we live in dangerous times .
Spot on Spidey. Like you have said, our problem is mostly because there is a plethora of Civilian Police Elements all overlapping jurisdiction and without really a Centralised Local Coordination / Control in all flash-point regions along our border. GSU-normal, GSU Recce, Admin Police under DOs, Admin on Recon tasking,GD Blues, hell, even the NSIS and some Provincial busy-bodies running around sniffing everywhere. This is not particularly a handicap, until it comes to actualising any intelligence that is garnered – who does what in reactionary terms? And who takes ‘point’, or coordinates, or reports upwards? It is a jungle out there, brothers.
And this is what the RDU was intended to correct. The Command/Control/Commu of these Police-Mandate elements is our shortcoming – I mean, strapping ‘’Risasi’’ into his F5-E to run a couple of sonic-boom overpasses at 50metres above ground, firing his 20MM over the heads of these ignorant Merille chaps would scatter them to hell and gone. But it is short-term and not cost effective – boots on the ground on Armed Recon or aggressive Intel gathering is what will do the trick.
It is not really a secret that Zenawi does encourage this cross-border mayhem using tactics akin to a ‘’aim-fire-forget’’. The recent insertions of TGF troopers through Mandera is illuminated example. We must not play into his hands – loosing the high Moral Ground through some tactically and strategic responses to our cousins across the border.
Patience, our beloved Kenya, in all her facets, is fast evolving!!
Ole Nkarei and kin, this is one area we will absolutely never agree on! Is the military a company that looks for cost effective means of procrastinating? For every shilling the military saves, ignoring the corruption of course, politicians waste 50cnts more. 100 merille raiders crossed into Kenya, within response range of their “highway” was a force of about 50 Kenya Police and GSU men. What absolutely irks me is, why did the G.S.U never fire a shot? Outnumbered they say? well the Turkanas are armed too. Believe me with the help of the G.S.U they could have repulsed the attack or at least lessened the body count. But the big question here is, why are our security forces not ready to die for their country? There should be no doubt in your, “D”, Risasi e.t.c mind that the moment you decided to enlist into the armed forces or any security service, you choose to give your life in service to the nation for the protection of other citizens. You have chosen to do what you do to help Kenya achieve what it should! Fancy words aside, escapist ideologies away do you wish to tel me that the Kenya DEFENCE Forces only respond to institutional aggression? If so, what is your business in Somalia border? The constitutional mandate of the Kenya armed forces is to PROTECT OUR SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY! You will not hide beyond the cost effectiveness line each time Kenya is in trouble! Migingo is gone Ugingo has followed suit, “we can’t have a military intervention coz Uganda is a friendly country”. WHAT? There’s no friendship without respect! Toposas kill Soldiers and G.S.U men, the government bla bla bla’s abt it. On the way to our border, our ministers are stopped at a checkpoint mounted by the SPLF inside Kenyan territory! Merille attack and kill close to 100 Kenyans, previously the Ethiopian govt messes and ends up giving us the Turbi massacre! WHAT IS OUR ARMY USEFUL FOR? If it can’t respond to non-institutional aggression then i suggest it be disbanded and all border communities be armed with the ex-army hardware! If this is an army that can’t protect it’s own civilians coz they were not attacked by a Foreign army then i want no part of it! that said when the U.P.D.F was attacking the Pokots why wasn’t the military called in? or wasn’t it cost effective? If our own security forces can’t sacrifice their lives for their country, who will? WHO WILL??!!! Those border guards are lucky i am not the C-in-C i would have court martialled all of them for dereliction of duty!
Goodafternoon ,how do i get to join the kenya army cadates?
what become of the plan to make the AP the principle border guard unit?
Funding plus intra-Unit feuding in the Gendarmerie, Spidey. An undefined (with clarity) Command and Control Structure, and the necessary interface in the Security Umbrella not quite determined to accommodate the new functions of the AP.
Teething problems, though, being worked on even now. No panic just yet!
We kenyans feel betrayed by recent events but come on soldiers,we cant blame the army for this shit.There is a chain of command that the army must follow and there seems to be no orders given.My take on this situation,ugingo,migingo and elsewhere should be blamed on the commander in chief.In my view he has violated his oath and should be arrested and pareded for public ass whooping or stoned to death.Bure kabisa!
@Jasiri – hold on for an instant, brother, please take another objective look at my posts on this matter. What it certainly ain’t is a cop-out, an escapist-rationalization and expressions in fancy language, as you imply.
Doggone it, man, even War must be rational. It must make sense. Particularly if it is to be justified on grounds of necessity and morality – see the two gulf wars, or Libya vs NATO!! I have tried to define the ‘’who owns the problem’’ syndrome, and the dangers about this sort of ill-tempered, hasty gang-ho reactive planning you extol. Hell, on the US-Mexican border all the organized semi-instutionalized violence, backed by limitless finances from the Narcotics trade, is not ranged against the Formal American Military Structure. Civilian Agencies, properly funded, equipped and led, with some interface with the Formal Armed Forces and Civilian and Military Intelligence, is deployed to varying depth!! You bloody well cannot have your cake and eat it, Jasiri, despotic Rulers use their country’s Armed Forces in the manner you seem to suggest we should, and while in this mix, they misuse the same Armed Forces to supplant democratic expressions to perpetuate their stranglehold on power. Armed Services are necessarily stringently regimented, while the Civilian Oversight of Policing Authorities entails a level of accountability to the People through the Civilian Authorities.
I repeat: ‘’…Under international law, and particularly bearing in mind the history and demographics of this border region, there does not exist any cut-and-dried distinctions between the rights of it’s citizenry and those of it’s relatives across an international border. It is due to this complex matrix that such indigene rights of Kenyans to their properties and security MUST BE in the purview of the Civilian Policing Authorities, gentlemen….’’
‘’..These not-so-regular incursions across borders with such shared demographics are really a Policing Mandate in which there exists greater Civilian Oversight and involvement than the in reactive Military deployment – what would then follow upon an extermination of a thousand poorly armed Merille villagers? Beyond ‘’legalizing’’ the preceding armed aggression by the Turkana / Adjuran (i.e) across our Borders? And what would be expected of kDoD when Ethiopian Military should then carry out a reactive egress into Turkana in response to one of Turkana’s many pillaging of their Merille Cousins?..’’
Kenya’s bane today is this ugly penchant to play the blame game in all our shortcomings, despite the evolutionary nature of our situation. Shaded with all manner of political color, to boot!! Eeiiish!!
Still my question remains, are our forces prepared to die for their homeland? Are you colonel prepared for that. are always going to hear of border guards deserting their posts for safety thereby exposing their AOR to danger?
Jasiri, that is an unfair question. You damn well know the answer to it. But I thank god I am certain where your heart is, man. I have not always been desk-bound as I sadly am presently. The Dedication and Motivation of your brothers in Uniform has NEVER been in question, neither has the Esprit de Corps that is now well defined by History.
Please put this whole issue to proper context, little bra.
You know what? – I never imagined there will ever be a day I’d ever want to be spatially awake walking down a straight street in Nairobi in Uniform!! Now it does feel like every eye on me is accusatory, by Gawd!!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13495684
Please tell me that the ambush of Northern troops was a Northern provocation. If it wasn’t, I cannot comprehend such stupidity, unless the Southerners are political troglodytes who do not deserve their newly acquired nationhood.
The North only needs one thing in the South which is oil, and they now have all the reasons to occupy not only Abyei, but nearby oil-rich regions as well. They will say they need the “depth” to protect Abyei from further provocation.
The cries of “illegal occupation” will cause a roar of laughter in the Arab world, and we’ll have an African West Bank on our hands.
And don’t count on the Egyptians to play a “constructive role” here. These guys are seriously pissed off by how the Nile issue was handled.
Interesting times ahead. It’s starting to look like a big boys’ game.
I don’t think Al Bashir has much apettite for any war with the spectre of an ICC trial still looming over his head. At the same time he has been seen as weak on the South, the president on whose watch Sudan lost much of its oil wealth. So he had to act (and be seen to be acting, importantly) at some point.
That said, am surprised the South put up virtually no fight at all. Thanks to the Satellite Sentinel Project exactly how many attack planes and tanks the North had north of Abyei was general knowledge to the whole world.
Maybe they didn’t want Abyei that much.
The South is just disorganized as usual, while the SAF has planned this move for some time.
The flow of oil from Abyei will slow down to a trickle 5 years away from now. The real issue is whether the North can create such conditions where the South won’t be able to develop Blocks 5&6.
The Bashir-ICC story has reached a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” point , so in his place I wouldn’t care less.
The South should cut its losses and make do with what they got out of the CPA. BTW, looks like the fields in Abyei are not on stream yet. See link below:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12115013
Question is, the North has all along been waging a proxy war through ‘militias’ who’ve been burning villages occupied by the Dinkas. What lessons will the North learn from this precedent?
Abyei fields are near depletion:
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2010/1102/Oil-rich-Abyei-Time-to-update-the-shorthand-for-Sudan-s-flashpoint-border-town
I really every about army since i was little kid but i think i ill die without a civilian coz ive being to 4 reicrutment
with no luck.
How is it that we share this site with these sex-perverts? Is is probably indication of the estimation Admin has for us, or what? Bana-wee!! Eeeiish!!
I agree, Jeez!! But we already tried moving somewhere else. Didn’t work.
planetafricana.blogspot.com/
planetkenyana.wordpress.com/
http://somaliareport.com/index.php/post/872/TFG_Security_Heads_Meet_After_Suicide_Attack?PHPSESSID=2e0a2495e8a45d1e6f07bcfe7a13d762
The interesting thing is that the attackers were inserted long time ago, they were trained & commissioned as TFG police officers.
Some have said that the attack was a desperate move on the part of the Shabaab, but the fact is that they did not divert any operatives; all suicide bombers are trained separately as “special forces”, so these seem to have been infiltrated EXACTLY for this purpose.
Considering that TFG is known to be heavily infiltrated by the Shabaab, and the latter is infiltrated by Ethiopian agents, the whole stuff has a rather surreal feel. The only ones outside this pattern of mutual infiltration are the foreign elements within the Shabaab.
Which means that the only question that matters is: who controls these foreign elements??
My latest information is that the Su-30MK2’s which will be delivered to Uganda are in fact a leftover from an earlier Chinese order of Su-30MKK’s, pre-assembled at the KNAAPO plant in the Far East. You see, the two are almost identical..
These birds could have been bought cheaply then, under $30mln.
I still cannot comprehend the $740mln BS.
UPDF is also buying some T-72’s from Russia (a large crowd of Ugandan soldiers already sent to Russia for training), but the T-72’s are just $500k a piece..
I don’t know whether your background is in forces, but tell me, did you expect to find the full details of the purchase in papers? Every single one of them? There are a lot of ‘packages’ you can come up with when buying ammo. A detailed analysis of what you can choose from has been performed by the Australians at:
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Flanker.html
The liberal media assumes that everything is supposed to laid bare for all to see. They may have good reasons for it but that’s not how defense expenditures are handled. May be defense never got that memo.
I’m all ears and eager to know which ‘package’ cost $500mln.
Is it a retirement package for Mr. and Mrs. M7?
Please be careful with Dr. Kopp and his website..
If it’s anyone’s package its some guy in the Defence ministry. And that’s the status quo in this region, Ug is just catching up with some really smart guys in defence procurements across the region.
Ok, so you know Dr. Kropp. Writing an article doesn’t mean you own the website on which its published. There’s a simple way of determining who owns a website, and this what comes up for that website:
http://whois.domaintools.com/ausairpower.net.
As long as you’ve not republished an article you are within your writes, to, say, publish a link to it (like you did first above). Actually, there are people who can pay you for it. This is the information age, bro, feel free to access whatever you can.
Or did you just want to impress people here with your knowledge?
And the endless drama in Somalia continues, complicated no ends by the very innocuous demands by the West for a termination of the TGF Mandate in Vacumm. Am I really the only African that is suspicious of these demands and their intentions? For once, I must agree with M7 on his stance regarding this. Legitimacy in the absence of social cohesion I reckon to be a real as a soap-bubble! Mugwirra, your opinion on this I would take to the Bank, buddy!! Tafadhali, Bwana!!
And the endless drama in Somalia continues, complicated no ends by the very innocuous demands by the West for a termination of the TFG Mandate in Vacuum. Am I really the only African that is suspicious of these demands and their intentions? For once, I must agree with M7 on his stance regarding this. Legitimacy in the absence of social cohesion I reckon to be a real as a soap-bubble! Mugwirra, Spartan, you’all, your opinion on this I would take to the Bank, buddy!! Tafadhali, Mabwana!!
No need to worry, the West is just “sending messages” that they won’t baby sit this TFG forever. However, everyone knows they will and behaves accordingly. Then the West gets angry and says “no we won’t”, but still everyone knows they’re posturing.
The whole thing would look like a sitcom if people weren’t dying.
@oleNkarei et al. I’m sure you lot have seen “the enemy within”…what say you, gentlemen?
Aw c’mon mate! What comments do you solicit on this hopelessly transparent sting-ops? Do you perharps recall the general outlne on the build-up to the 1982 Coup?
Nothing is ever what it seems in such matters, not least by some cowboy-type, amateuristic greenhorn reporter with such a highly recognised television profile as Nammu!!
Pinch of nose-tobacco at a time, I advise.
Some brave UPDF soldiers lost in Mogadisho last weekend, senior of them the OC 23Btn Lt. Col Patrick Tibihwa, Lt. Lawrence Tugume Cpl. Isabirye Abdalla and Pte. Augustine Kuloba – Tank battalion. Not from direct contact but by opportunistic fire now prevalent in this senseless conflict in Mogadisho.
My heart bleeds for these men.
UPDF’s ARTY retaliatory shelling kills ten civilians, in residential areas from where these mortars were fired – reprehensible and retrogressive, In my view.
Too bad.
ole Nkarei, how would you react differently if you were pinned down by hostiles hiding among the civilian population, which, for some reason, cannot relocate even when they know hostilities are imminent. That’s not to say that I approve a hundred percent of AMISOM tactics, loss of life is always regrettable.
I mean, in 1985/86 when there were gun battles in Kampala people would abandon areas where armed men were seen. I am surprised to see civilians right behind armed men in a firefight.
So it’s the Somali civilians who are guilty of not running away fast enough.
Then maybe you’ll like the news that Mogadishu traders are indeed evacuating Bakara; the only small problem is that they are moving to the Shabaab-controlled Elasha, not TFG-controlled Hamarweyne.
Somehow no one asks whether AMISOM even has the mandate from these “civilians” to be there. As if the invitation from the Ethiopian-appointed “parliament” and CIA-appointed “president” were enough.
What we have seen there SINCE 2007 is not counterbattery fire, but premeditated retaliatory shelling. That’s kind of not good. Or is it?
Recent media reports suggest that the AMISOM offensive has been planned by Western military advisers; some French were even seen on the frontlines.
I’m inclined to believe the story because the whole offensive has the same feel of tactical brilliance and strategic irrelevance as all ISAF operations in Afghanistan.
The French are pathetic. They lost everything they had in Central Africa to the Americans, and are now trying to jump on the American bandwagon. They think they can make themselves relevant again.
‘the French are pathetic’
Ethiopia-appointed parliament’
‘CIA-appointed President’
Get a hold of yourself bro. Looks like you have a bone to pick with everyone.
“Counter-battery fire”- Now, let’s stop throwing around military terminologies unnecessarily. Don’t tell me Al Shabaab have and actually deploy batteries (artillery pieces in British-speak).
An element of Combined arms may be, which is nothing new to the UPDF. there is enough blame to go around but that won’t get us far.
Have nothing against the French. But their hyperactivity in Djibouti/Somalia (like their clumsy attempts to make friends with the tall-thin man as ole Nkarei calls him) do look pathetic in my view.
And where do these Somali “transitional federal institutions” derive their legitimacy from if not from the sources I’ve mentioned? 😉
Counter-battery? That’s the exact term which means using arty to deal with arty; there’s no other way to call it, and that’s the very word AMISOM uses to explain what they are doing.
This is one hell of a tough call for any sector commander in Combat. Difficult to say categorically what one’s judgement call would be in the heat of that moment. But he is duly as obliged for the lives of his men as he is for the lives of those non-combatants in-sector. I would hazard to say the Uniformed Combat Solider is not only recompensed for the possible loss of his life, but also is prepared both mentally and even spiritually for this eventuality – not so the Non-combatants. Ergo, one would say my duty of care is probably greater for the non-combatants than to my men whose raison d’etre really is wholesale and individualised slaughter.
Indeed Mugwira has a heavypoint that these reactive ARTY usage by the UPDF are increasingly taking a ‘’foreign-ideology’’ character by their clearly indiscriminate long-distance revenge-type nature that are not at all defined by ‘’normal’’ military parlance. This is not War as normally defined when the slaughter is not particularly directed at an opposing/deserving force.
And for each non-combatant that is felled by such blind fire, another ten don Uniform and the ranks continue to swell. This is really very defeatist as a strategy, probably indicative of an acceptance by the UPDF of the futility of their present deployment philosophy. Is it too late to mentally withdraw and regroup, and restructure themselves to either fight those that must be fought, or continue to erode their legitimacy of their deployment + differentiation of definition with that of the terrorists they were sent in to defeat? Right from the outset of the UPDF entry, I repeatedly told everyone who would lend me their ears that they lacked the means to put stabilise and control the Somali situation. Such were the UPDF’s tested tactics against LRA, and the results are quite clear.
Brother ole Nkarei, let’s not get ahead of ourselves here with our knowledge of ‘UPDF tactics’.
Many officers with field experience, especially those who have faced the UPDF have nothing but respect for these boys. Before they are deployed they are trained for no less than 6 months in urban warfare, among other things. Mind you this retraining is done on people who have been shot at in several theaters of war already.
Collateral damage is a fact of war, as even the Americans with precision weapons will attest. It is easy for you to criticise them when you are not there.
But if the much ‘better’ KDF is willing to enter the fray, Uganda would gladly withdraw. Just my personal opinion. We are all on the same side, remember?
We are on the same side, Bra. Infact we got your back pretty good in Somalia. But I am not ‘’running ahead of myself’’ with my comments on the UPDF field tactics in Mogadisho – hell, In my line of work, it is an ill-afforded luxury to be un-informed, or to draw assumptions without basis. I reckon in your UPDF Officer-corps there are specific studies on KDF history, make-up, tactics, philosophy failures, successes, the whole shebang too.—‘’ Read-practice-sleep’’ routine. Standard practice in any army’s Officer-Corp to study well possible belligerents. No questions at all on the proven bravely of Soldiers of the UPDF intended nor implied.
I tell you, wagging those heavy ART and big Tac-Mortars over a populated centre has no likely Military explanation unless the purpose is to sack the City – the population be damned. Standard Tactic is to send in search-and-destroy teams into the sector from which your positions are threatened by enemy ART and Mortar banks – clear them and establish depth of defence around your positions. Or pull back into better defensive positions.
These non-combatant fatalities are wholly unnecessary and will only aggravate UPDF’s precarious situation in Mogadisho.
Here’s one thing I don’t understand. Of course, using residential areas to shell AMISOM/TFG installations has been a provocation by Al-Shabaab. Definitely, AMISOM’s response did a lot to erode their credibility (not that they had too much of it in the first place).
I have to admit, there’s a point where you cannot avoid responding to a provocation; you cannot tell your troops to sit and do nothing under harassing enemy mortar fire, because that is too damaging to morale.
The purpose of this retaliation was to vent out anger/frustration; very little tactical value.
BUT, probably THE main goal of the present AMISOM offensive was to expand the area of control in such a way as to make it hard for the Shabaab to shell mission HQ and Villa Somalia.
So what’s the use of these retaliatory tactics now, considering how harmful they’ve been to the mission’s reputation? Is AMISOM really that stuck in what you call “defeatist”, leave-us-alone mentality?
One cannot rule out human emotion in this retaliatory shelling and of course all of us wish they never happened but that’s the nature of war, it’s ‘foggy’. I was initially taken aback by the one-sided condemnation in the posts above.
Hopefully the international community sees these events through the prism of the UN Glossary of Peacekeeping Terms, which states that:
‘human shield [any person who, under the laws of war is considered a non-combatant [sic] and as such protected from deliberate attack (civilians, POWs, etc.) but who is used by one side as a hostage to deter the other side from striking a particular military target and risking killing the hostages; the side using “human shields” gambles on the other side’s reluctance to violate the laws of war and on its fear of the moral and political opprobrium usually attached to such violations; the use of human shields can take the form of a) placing civilians or prisoners in or near legitimate military targets (bases, bunkers, weapons factories, etc.) or b) placing artillery batteries and other offensive weapons in the midst of the civilian population…”
Some of you will find this comparative analysis table for the EAC National Budgets illuminating, This is just a hip-shot of the thing, really, and the Specific Military Budget comparative analysis will be soon availed.
Country 2012 Budget Pop 2009 % Kenya’s Budget Donor –factor
Rwanda USD 1.8 Billion 10,5M 13.47% 32.37%
Uganda USD 4.1 Billion 32.4M 30.00% 29.60%
Tanzania USD 8.1 Billion 41.1M 61.85% 33.1%
Kenya USD.13.2 Billion 39M – 8.7%
Of course this is not conclusive as the details of allocation, revenue levels, target-consumption, etc are not contained here. But surely these figures, even by themselves, must indicate ”something”, I dare say!!
This has been the status quo for a long time. Nothing new for me there at all.
Tafadhali tupa mwanga zaidi kuhusu maana ya hizi figures.
Take it easy, soldier. I am not calling anyone out at all – mazungumzo pekee, ndugu.
But these are this year’s Policy statements of general Government expenditure for the EAC barring Burundi;s whose figures are not particularly game-changing. Analysis of these gives credible pointers to Governments Intentions into the next couple of years. From a Soldier’s perspective, Military Intentions inherent in these Policy Statements of Expenditure.
Probably the others may weigh in, eh?
See what I mean? Whose leg do you think you’re pulling?
@ Spartan Bro don,t let these fellows rock your brain with these unrepresentive military budgetries and figures. I have answered him vividly at the below forum on Sat Jun 11, 2011 10:17 am. and still awaiting his response. Cheers man.
http://eastafrican.userboard.net/t5p285-kenya-armed-forces
Keep the bird flying high.
Msajaah wa Crane
Sudan Tribune reports that Ethiopia put in an order for 200 T-72s from Ukraine. Knowing where the money comes from, is is safe to assume that the Somalia fiasco is about to get one heck of a steroid boost?
ref: http://allafrica.com/stories/201106120043.html
Yeah, they will be taking delivery, but not anytime soon though. I reckon this is more in reaction to the changed realities in Eqypt with an unstable democracy tottering to find shape, than to Somalia, Mwistar. This Somalia thing is just about done. And the UGABAG deployment is robust enough to hold without an insertion of another disparate MilitaryGgroup – that will only confuse this Somali Theatre no ends.
Vitruvian, I dont get it, man. Who do you mean is pulling which leg, bra?
Tom, I was addressing Spartan.
@ Vitruvian, focus your fire, bro. For a moment I also didn’t know whether your bull’s eye was on my chest or the colonel’s.
Looks like you guys have been busy at http://eastafrican.userboard.net/t5p285-kenya-armed-forces. That site needs a lot of toning down, what do you think? Which brings me to those budget figures, both on this site and that other site.
What is the Taleban’s budget this year? O.K , that’s far removed from our region. Al Shabaab, may be. How many billions do you think they will need this year? You can feel good about a huge defence budget on paper, I am sure the Americans feel the same. But when it comes to facing a seasoned adversary, your balance in the bank won’t help you.
With their respective budgets Rwanda, or indeed Uganda, can maintain a theater of war more than ten times its size, and not for weeks but years.
Oh come now, Spartan. Give some credit where it is due. Any regional conflict involving Kenya is bound to be asymmetric because of Kenya’s overwhelming military capability. The comparisons, you will agree, have been focusing on conventional military engagement, not the wanton massacre of civilians by suicide bomber, as has happened in Kampala, Nairobi and Dar.
“Battle-hardened” does not compensate for superior technology, training, discipline, numbers and strategy.
I have no military training. But if you have a panga and I have a gun, believe me, you’re dead.
I am sick of this story about uganda and rwanda matching kenyas military might. I know all the 3 countries quite well. The people raising these arguments try to imagine that somehow uganda would cross busia or whichever point and run over the country while kenyan soldiers are basking in their barracks. They also try to imagine that none of the kenyan soldiers has used a gun in a real war situation. They also under estimate the swift, tactical and heavy onslaught that can be meted on them by the boys of nanyuki. They assume that the border incursions reported time after time are as a result of KDF incompetence. Could it be because they compare the scenario with the previous bush wars of the region? Simple question with all humility, could the 2 supposedly war experienced countries withstand what happened in kenya in ’08. How long would they take to recover? You agree that the reaction would have escalated the situation 2. If kenya is banking on $13B don’t you think they could easily mobilse extra resources if required to sustain a prolonged war? Unless you are counting on BIG brother of course. I respect our neighbours with their military experience but you cannot compare fighting such a modernised country like kenya with past incursions into DRC. Now, A brother from RW recently passionately and angrily told me that his country has long overtaken kenya in development, never mind that he has never visited kenya but he is counting on the world bank doing business report and the western media and the pictures about kibera and NE province to conclude that thats all about kenya. He has been told that you are mugged as soon as you arrive in nairobi right in the eyes of the police. Then I asked him a simple question, how come JKIA is the busiest airport in the region? Is it just handling transit passengers who would never venture into kenya? This is the same mentality used to estimate kenya’s military strength without having fought them. We all have a long way to go but let the truth be told and facts be laid on the table. Finally our focus now is how to move forward as a region
Here we go again
I overlooked the annoying statistics for Ethiopia, so here there are. Flying Crane has an aversion for hard facts, but there is not disputing hard facts without adducing rebuttal hard facts.
Country / 2012 Global Budget / Population / % of Kenya’s / Foreign factor
Ethiopia / USD,6.954Billion / 83M / 52.68% / 33%
The game is after all “”MILITARY HARDWARE PROCUREMENT”” and this cannot be effected on empty air, or soap bubbles that dissipate after appearance, by gawd!! If Ethiopia burns just under USD250Million (a full 3.6% of her overall National Budget, for-crying-out-loud!!) on the procurement of JUST ONE STORES ITEM (200 MBTs), how can anyone be as blind as not discern the obvious elliptical shape this creates to her entire Defense Spending?? And This is not space rocketry, gentlemen.
At the very least there must be tangible substance and intelligent conjecture to what is posted here!!
Good to see alot of intelligent though being passed around online …. Ole Nkarei and anyone with some good insight …. can you please comment on the following ……… with Kenya as an underwriter of the CPA , all the obvious investment in strengthening South Sudan capacity to become a viable state as well as the strategic interest Kenya has again in SS ……..why do we seem to be taking a back seat with the events of the last few months , most recent Abyei and South Korfodan. Ethiopia seems to be taking quite a lead i.e hosting AUHIP where Ethiopia has proposed sending peace keepers into Abyei ….. is it the fact that IGAD is currently chaired by Meles as well as AU being headquatered in Ethiopia or has Kenya taken a back seat to the events by choice or otherwise?
A spineless CiC and a defeatist foreign policy.
Vitruvian, slow down, buddy! I feel where you are coming from, but i also know dang well that YOU KNOW DANG WELL TOO THAT these things are never black-and-white. Surely America’s present stance world-wide is NOT AT ALL remotely indicative of a ‘brave’ CIC or a successful prosecution of foreign policy!
Kenya is no longer regarded as impartial by Sudan and Sudan would not be willing to be involved in any ‘mediation’, unless coerced. This is all because of the MV Faina affair, whose cargo it has been reported in reputable publications as well as leaked US diplomatic cables as, belonging to and already received by GOSS. See:
http://www.janes.com/products/janes/defence-security-report.aspx?ID=1065926962&pu=1&rd=janes_com
Ethiopia is using its strategic positioning to, you guessed right, take care of its interests in Southern Sudan like everyone else.
In both instances Kenya and by stepping back now it’s doing the right thing. You’ve got to cut your leadership some slack this time.
I’m sure you’d like to see it remain this way, Spartan.
On the contrary, Uganda wishes Kenya well. A strong Kenya is in Uganda’s interest. Kenya is Uganda’s biggest trade partner and source of foreign direct investment, not to mention the most cost effective route to the sea.
Stop and smell the roses, bro.
i have copied this from the other site run by jordan ie nipate.com
is this another NSIS operation to justify something?
http://intelligencebriefs.com/?p=1085
Kenya Military Strengths and Weaknesses
June 13 | Posted by David Goldman | Geopolitics, Military Intelligence
Across the East and Central African region, Kenya remains the most militarily powerful country. This is based on its capabilities including assets and resources at disposal besides human resources. Latest acquisitions particularly long range surface to surface missiles SSM and surface to air missiles SAM has bolstered its capability to strike enemies strategic military positions. Another major boost to its capability was the acquisition of a new fleet of F-5 –Tiger strategic fighter jets. These, albeit commonplace perception they are old, are upgraded 1989 Northrop editions, hence superior. They have speed and precisions besides modern radar and an anti-aircraft fire detection and evasion system, in simple words. The new fleet totals 25 and will back up another 18 all in compact condition.
On Yearly basis, Kenya has been building up its infantry. Annually, 6000 troops are trained and the cadet school recruits hundreds of military aviators. As such, annually, an estimated 8,000 join the military. The military intelligence and the defense training college in Karen is a hub for senior military officials where strategy and geopolitics are assessed. Besides, the Kenyan military is disciplined well trained, and engaged in corporate social responsibility.
Military threats facing Kenya hardly suffice to be high level let alone raise a major threat to the country sovereignty. A case scenario is Uganda and Somalia. The Ugandan regime has an expansionist doctrine that has seen them eye specific locales across Lake Victoria. Militarily, Kenya has the capacity to fed off Uganda both using flak and flank but there has never been any troop’s movement or deployment to insinuate Kenya’s military response to such a threat. Along the border with Uganda, tribal militia-like communities keep moving in and out of either country or joint disarmament exercises.
Latest Military Realignment and Acquisitions in Uganda
Uganda spent billions of Ugandan shillings to acquire Russian fighter aircraft besides upgrading its infantry technical capability. Latest acquisition of Sukhoi fighter jets
Uganda, based on current threat matrix analysis poses a significant military threat based on two pronged factors. Its recent military upgrades including the acquisition of six sukhoi-20 mk2 fighter aircraft that are rated as top of the range fighters and the discovery of oil in the country is disturbing. It is right for Uganda to up its air defenses and upgrade its military technical capability based on its rising economic fortunes and the arising need to keep such resources safe. On the other hand, geopolitics force Kenyan oil rich north to remain an unexploited oil reserve but rising energy costs and Ugandan oil requires balancing the act.
Migingo and Ugingo Island issues are geopolitical and a big issue all together. Kenyan military strategists and their intelligence counterparts have for a year now sought a way out without considering a military strike on Uganda owing to the fact that the F-5E cannot match sukhoi-20 mk2 fighter which Museveni is desperate to use. Instead, the NSIS proposed top-secret acquisitions of superior fighter aircraft. According to a series of defense, meetings between Kenyan air force officials, and agreed to seek which among US 35- F-15 fighter aircrafts should be delivered to cushion Kenyan against the increasing threat from her neighbors.
Besides the F-15, the country has already acquired 50 z-9w attack helicopters from China and another fleet of Harbin gunship attack helicopters. In continuum for the rising levels of threat and powerful enemy flak, the NSIS along Military intelligence have been talking for sellers of F-15, JF-17, and Mi35 gunships to up the Kenya air force and diversify its technical and tactical capability.
Regional Balance Necessitates More Military Spending in Kenya
Kenya ranks 40 in military spending globally. However, the defense expenditure is warranted given the strategic position of Kenya in the region besides its strategic importance to Britain, Israel, and United States. The same scenario now applies to the Chinese. Massive infrastructure upgrades and construction in Kenya have been the responsibility of the Chinese since 2005 when President Kibaki began specific economic reforms in the country. Defense expenditure plans have been cushioned from publicity besides keeping the clandestine due to the sensitive nature of arms info that can prompt an arms race in the region. There is also the issue of Kenyan security pact with Ethiopia, which shields both from armed conflicts. Southern Sudan military, a rebel outfit without discipline is now being trained and equipped by the Kenya army. Kenya main fear lies within Khartoum, Uganda, and Somalia.
Sudan has sought to repress the Juba regime and now that cessation was confirmed, keeping Khartoum away by building an army in the South besides adequately arming it is sensible and a long-term strategy. The theatre of the complex matrix of this threat compounds when type of arms comes to focus. Training pilots is expensive and cumbersome and the Southern Sudanese are not yet ready to fly an F-5E, an Instrument Kenya desperately wants to give them. Khartoum has MIGs, latest editions, besides a long-range facility that is producing a sizeable amount of surface to air and surface-to-surface missiles. The target would be Juba and Kenya since Kenya is the Juba proxy.
Ugandan oil and visits by President Museveni in the recent past has prompted the war-happy Museveni to acquire armor and air defense including the 6-Sukhoi from Russia. Museveni has since then felt confident enough to try Kenyan military by taking two islands, a geopolitical dilemma for Kenya. Kenya will only respond once the 35-F-15 from the United States are delivered and tested. The United States stopped using the F-15 after unverified mechanical-and system problems caused crashes during recent mock action. With Kenya one of the world’s most secretive army besides spending massively annually, it is yet to be verified what exactly has been acquired, disposed, or upgraded. Such information surfaces two or more years after it is done and the detail is scanty.
Somali’s extremists seek to expand their communal presence across the borders of Somalia, meaning Kenyan and Ethiopia will be annexed. Preparing an army that is well equipped and with sufficient intelligence framework to counter the threat is an urgent need. With a larger army today, and a fleet of armored vehicles/humvees, more land rovers, hundreds of Steyers, hundreds of main battle tanks with better armor, thousands of rockets, hundreds of missiles, a fleet of F-15 Eagles, Chinook attack helicopters, Harbins gunships, MD 500s, besides missile launchers, among many new and modern weaponry, Kenya is balancing the act and tilting the power balance to its favor as usual
SO guys tell me who is this author
who seems to have exagerated the numbers here .on this story.what is the purpose if not counter intelligence operations ?
I don’t think this is somebody you can bet your mama on. He is probably a wannabe ‘intelligence analyst’ who also covers other less serious news like, say, Tusker Project Fame. Check out:
http://intelligencebriefs.com/?p=235
The address of the registrant of the website is listed as Nairobi, Kenya. You can get his further details including phone numbers by doing a reverse IP check.
A counter intel job? I doubt, coz it would be an awfully shoddy job.
Counterintelligence?
Although, at first glance, it comes across as a feel-good article intended to glorify Kenya’s military prowess, the writer of this article is not Kenyan and does not live in Nairobi.
The report has been written sloppily and its author, “David Goldman,” a “renowned intelligence news analyst and reputed investigative journalist,” is clearly not a native speaker of English. The grammar is appalling, the text is unedited, sentences are incomplete, some even nonsensical, etc.
His “penchant for facts” informs us that Uganda has acquired “Sukhoi 20 Mk2” fighters, that Adams Arcade is on “Gong Road,” that globally Kenya ranks 40th in terms of military spending, that Chinooks are “attack helicopters,” etc. It is not easy to make or overlook such errors. The question then is whether they are intentional.
The sheer absence of any advertising whatsoever would suggest a philanthropy rather than the pursuit of profit. The declared goal of Strategic Intelligence News and its reputed and renowned investigative journalists, researchers and news an intelligence analysts, is to alert the global audience about “impeding (sic) … extra-terrestrial … confrontations that might lead to a global problem,” so that “the world is able to marshal collective efforts to thwart such threats effectively” in order to prevent “costing lives and future generations the safety and tranquil they require to live happily” (sic) and with the aim of “providing our readers and the business community with sufficient information to guide them through their business processes.”
To this end, the website provides us with a hodgepodge of intelligence, geopolitical, military and criminal reports, the relevance of which is beyond my fathoming.
“Intelligence News” informs me that an ex-militia leader in the US state of Montana, one David Burgert, had an exchange of fire with the Missoula County Sherriff.
“Geopolitics” tells me that Paul Ryan and President Barrack Obama got into an angry exchange over plans to overhaul the healthcare plan.
“Crime Reports” announces that Cheryl Bremble, a Pennsylvania high school teacher, has been arrested after authorities confirmed that she gave a student sex toys.
And “Military Intelligence” reports that Hall of fame sportsman and Major League Baseball player, Hammerin’ Harmon Killebrew has died of esophageal cancer at the age of 74 at his home in Scottsdale, Arizona.
For local flavour, there are reports on Willy Mutunga, Bonny Khalwale, Scott Gration and Kenya’s Military Strengths and Weaknesses.
Hmmm.
There are too many inconsistencies and too many loose suppositions in this story to give it any credibility.
The few quoted ‘Facts’ are stretched to unbelievable levels, they lose their relevance, and the usual rumor thrown into the mix. Even the Spider picks these easily out.
What is certainly without doubt is that it is not authored in any official circles in Kenya.
Discount it entirely, friends.
Now that the kenyan CinC has awoken from his politically induced slumber and realised how the kenyans feel about encroachment by foreign elements onto kenyan territory..especially migingo and ugingo..what will be the state of play in the next days and weeks or months.
Supposing KDOD was tasked to resolve the issue by all means what would be the likely scenario..although this is not likely to happen..It seems to observers that M7 has planned for this eventuality..by appearing to post a two platoons of about 45 to 50 men armed with shoulder fired grenade launchers and a few odd anti aircraft guns…so the locals say.
Of course they will soil their pants at the mere sight of KDF and swim all the way to the nearest point in Uganda. SPidERman, all those guys are policemen and of course, policemen don’t carry that kind of equipment. If i were you, I wouldn’t rely on the description of a few fishmongers to form an opinion.
Seriously, though, I wish this issue is resolved, like ASAP. It screwed up my evening with a Kenyan babe. Man…
That’s not all it’s going to screw up. The bad blood being generated over this is not going to dissipate overnight. Take a step back, Spartan, ponder the situation, then tell me this is a good thing for anyone. Kibaki’s aloofness is not likely to be mimicked by the next GK.
“That’s not all it’s going to screw up” Not again, what else is it now going to screw up, hopefully for me alone? The above episode was bad enough. On a more seriuos note, this issue is going to be resolved soon and to the satisfaction of everybody involved. No one will be celebrating any pyrrhic victories anytime soon.
Sooner or later.
Sorry about your misfire, Spartan, I reckon you could reload and take another beard at her, no? if it don’t work, lemme know, will hook you up pronto, buddy!!
Certainly this heat generated about ‘’occupation’’ of this island is not commensurate with the tenets under which the ‘’Warmongers’’ amongst us express their indignation. Are there other considerations driving this debate? I know there are, and some Uniforms do too. National Security / Territorial Sanctity of Kenya is not by any stretch of Military thinking exemplified by the supposed occupation of Migingo / Ugingo. By Uganda.
And Spartan is dang right that these ‘’ocuppiers’’ are Ugandan Civilian Police-elements without Military equipment , leadership nor training. It is not even comparable to the RDU or the GSU, folks!! Moreover, their presence cannot be qualified as a Foreign Occupation of Kenya, not with an often stated explicit approval of GoK. It is not justifiable by whatever standards to set upon this half Coy of policemen with Killer units of the kDoD. Perspective!!
The CIC is not the Military, but part of it – an extension of it, if I may be allowed to protest!! This repeated vilification/ assault of the CIC is grossly misplaced, and a little hard on the gums, fellas.
War is not to be engaged on the whims of some hot-headed, head-line-hogging politicos , neither justified by the narrow economic interests of a few citizenry– and in Migingo, the primary activity/ justification for civilian presence is most definitely not fishing nor innocent barter, if the truth be told – clandestine illegal exchanges with severe economic an d security implications within the Greater Eastern Africa has funnelled for decades through this expansive lake using such forlorn islands as staging / holding ground, with.
Now considering that greater movement of such ‘’trade’’ is away from Migingo than into it, and that comparatively speaking the spectre of Subversion and Armed Insurrection is greater felt by GoU than GoK or GoT, It is unsurprising that M7 should seek to shut these clandestine routes in the Lake as a driving priority than Kenya or Tanzania – Rwanda, Burundi, CAR and DRC can only spectate unable to proactively engage in interdiction that deep.
A Country with the ability to properly project overwhelming Military Offensive Force could engage its Military to Interpret / enforce Political Policies vide international relationships (the US in Afghanistan); or in a quasi-democracy or a dictatorship where the separation between Political and Military Edifices is blurred – such as in the Invasion by Sadaam Hussein of Kuwait in 1990. Plainly and simply because War must be sold TO AN INTERNATIONAL AUDIENCE as legally justified and unavoidable – at the end of a very well defined ‘’due process’’ local and international, legal and diplomatic, etc….This Migingo thing is not even subject to some serious cross-border Cabinet Sub-committee that i know of, nor yet to go before the Arbitration Organs of the EAC, etc…And War Drums are now a daily deafening food ratio.
Examples are legion for erroneously prosecuted Military Conflicts emanating from misguided political decisions, and in Africa the Cameroun vs Nigeria territorial flare-ups are probably the most similar to this Migingo Debate.We all know how it was settled finally, as indeed it should have been in the first place without loss of Military lives and equipment.
This Migongo debate loses focus in the politico coating of expressions made.
Tom, I think we need to look beyond the obvious and see what this fuss is all about. It is far more localised that it may seem. Very few, if any, are seriously advocating military conflict with Uganda in reaction to this Migingo fiasco. Uganda and its people do not bear the brunt of the Kenyan mwananchi’s ire. Spartan almost found this out (incidentally, I can also help you out here). The reaction to the incursions at Todonyang have been equally vociferous, and news from the East is a constant source of complaint.
The reaction to Migingo etc. is an expression of political disgust directed at a condescending executive that treats the population with contempt and disdain. Kenya is undergoing her biggest transformation since casting off the colonial yoke. A Second Republic. There is a genuine, people-driven desire to make a clean break with the past, and the vices that past has come to represent – corruption, dictatorship, impunity … the wanton disregard of people’s needs and wishes by a pompous imperial executive and the callous exploitation of wananchi for the express interests of an economically engorged political class.
What CiC is being told is that we’ve had enough of this and it must stop. You can no longer disregard the law and appoint a CJ at your whim. You can no longer disregard your oath and play a casual game of golf whilst national integrity is being breached. Get up off your arse and do the job you’re being paid for. That is the message.
If your father invites your neighbour to violate your sister before your very eyes, at whom will your ire be directed? As head of state and government, it is the President, the CiC, that is in the firing line. Not Spartan or M7 (my personal disdain aside).
Kenyans are not belligerent by nature. Diplomacy has always been our primary weapon of choice. It has served us well. Our economic clout is sufficient to reduce M7 to a whimpering pup. The perception is that the GK has capitulated even on these fronts. And people are not taking it sitting down.
Your brothers-in-arms will likely never be called upon to “liberate” Migingo. You do not swat a fly with a rocket launcher.
Agreed with vitruvian totally.what the CIC did here is totally unacceptable. it has taken three years for him to respond to these concerns..if we were at war..it would have been all over for us.
looking at how this CIC reacts to situations is like he does not know how to use the tools at his disposal
Right you are, Nichi. I hear you and am in complete agreement with this perspective. And also with that by The Spider. The buck does stop… etc.. no debate about that!
Doggone it, pals, it is a complex matrix, and these are not the only factors in play in this matter, as am certain you both agree – as important as they are notwithstanding.
Man, it is getting so that you are afraid of dropping in at your local Supermarket before going home when you are still in your ”Office Cloths” guy!!
Does the cgs still think that was the work of the cartographers to resolve like he famously claimed ..three years ago?i sometimes cringe with shame when i remember these words from a decorated man in uniform.
But that is exactly the point, Spider. The Military has nothing to do with this issue, one way or the other AT THIS PRESENT TIME. Armed intervention will create nastier problems than resolve this minor one using brute force in present circumstances. There is absolutely no Military Threat in Migingo Island, none whatsoever. IT IS SIMPLY NOT A MILITARY MATTER -yet, and hopefully never.
Spider, the cartographers rightly had ”first lick” at this, and then the Legal minds, lastly the Politicos. Only then should one require the CGS and anyone else to shed blood on this issue – theirs and others bloods. Lets put this debate to rest for the present moment, I beg I beg OO!!
Spartan is one Uniform that i would happily serve with, and I kinda like the depth of his understanding of these issues, I raise my glass to him tonight. ( did you reload, fella?) It is simply not cowardly not to fight when there is no imperative to fight, as he rightly puts it.
As an aside, is blind Loyalty such as Goebbels to his Fuhrer any worse than the blind Nationalism of Hitler?
“Our economic clout is sufficient to reduce M7 to a whimpering pup”. I think any economic measures would hurt ordinary Ugandans and Kenyans. The trade between Ug and Ke benefits all of us, not just Uganda.
I feel your anger towards the your CiC. Being the nationalist that I am I would feel no less if I were in your position. But have you considered the possibility that he may have far more intel than you? Actually, in the face of all the criticism he is coming in for, I think his inaction is an indicator of strength not weakness.
We need to address the real cause of the despute taking into account that any bad blood between Kenya and Uganda isn’t good for the common man of either country. Some facts:
1. While in Arusha, the two principals agreed that the Uganda Police stay put until a resolution is arrived at. Technically that means that they are there with the agreement of the Kenyan CiC. While in going there they were’nt invited by Ke, they are now there by bilateral agreement, until the despute is resolved, that is.
2. The survey of the area was almost complete indicating that the island is a few hundred meters in Kenya. The Uganda team insisted that the boundary be marked with floating beacons to remind travellers and fishermen that they are crossing international boundaries and the Kenya team refused, for reasons that I can only guess. This resulted in the endless ‘consultations’ that have stalled the process.
3. Kenyan fishermen, using ‘forward’ landing sites like, you guessed right, Migingo, catch fish in Ugandan, even Tanzanian waters. That explains the constant ‘harrassment’ of fishermen by Tz and Ugandan marine.
4. The people of Kenya and Uganda who live around the lake have always fished it without worrying about borders that were put there by Europeans without consulting them. Infact, there are islands in Sese in Uganda that are inhabited by large numbers of Kenyans and am sure there are Ugandans on all Kenyan islands as well.
How do we resolve the problem without affecting Ugandans and Kenyans who depend on fishing? Are borders to be respected only by policemen and not fishermen? Is it harrassment when fishermen are arrested on the wrong side of the border? Should the border be demarcated and patrolled to the detriment of the fishermen and fish factories in Kisumu?
Should Kibaki still send in the Kenya army? I don’t think it would solve the underlying problems. Mixing these issues with the character of either M7, Kibaki while at the same time being blinded by extreme nationalism won’t help us. If we can’t solve this within the auspices of the EAC, we might as well forget about it altogether.
I would willingly pursue this topic with you Spartan but I don’t see the point. I have made my thoughts clear but you seem to insist on comparing penises. There is life beyond machismo. And debating with an antagonist who feigns ignorance and willfully ignores established facts and conventional wisdom is futile.
We’re both patriots, Spartan, but only one of us is constrained by nationalist blinkers. Ole Nkarei’s admiration and enthusiasm is misplaced. Or merely diplomatic.
There is a concept out there that is bigger than Kenya or Uganda. And it will prevail.
Very strong words there. I had been fooled to think that you had moderated your opinions.
I thought I was very civil and as factual as possible in the above post. I wrote that Migingo is a Kenyan island, and that the Uganda Police will leave as soon as the impasse is resolved, as agreed by the two principals. But it seems the only acceptable resolution to you is military action by Kenya against Uganda.
This is the last of my replies to any of your posts. Sorry bro.
My intention was not to injure. I misjudged your brinkmanship for an ability to receive as much as you give. I did not realise that you had a glass jaw and I apologise for cracking it. In hindsight, I might have been a tad too abrasive.
Frankly, I am totally flabbergasted as to where in my last post you read an advocation of militancy. Or the post before that. Ergo my reference to blinkers. And comparing penises (call it whatever you like). And machismo. And feigning ignorance.
We’re going in circles here, I’m glad you’ve taken the initiative to break out.
No replies necessary, Spartan, and no apologies.
Address the issues not personalities. We may be semi anonymous here but mutual respect is always a good thing.
to cut along story short…let those ugandan policemen on both migingo and ugingo just quietly pack their effects and sail home.
..this will just let the matter rest.. without much more fuss. period.
I agree with Spider – truce, even if belligerent, Spartan / Vitruvian!!
Spidey, this is not meant to be a criticism or disagreement with your opinion above. But you know that eventually Jurisprudence and Judicial application is intended to synchronise across EAC. – it wont matter one whit if you’re are arrested and tried in Kampala or Nairobi eventually. The Migingo presence of these GuG policemen is just but a desirable harbinger of this – although the politicians on both side will not be caught dead verbalising this agreement of sorts to have those policemen on situe in Migingo – in Kenya it is political suicide, while in Uganda it is acceptance of a smoky derriere ( if you know what I mean!!)
i am a student taking IT and would like to inquire when will be your next recruitment because i really need a place in the force
http://www.statesman.com/news/nation/us-taps-45m-in-gear-for-terror-fight-1563539.html?printArticle=y
Good business, this counterterrorism thing is!
Uncle sam is ringing in AQ in East and Central Africa. Very altered thinking in Washington lately. Seems the American are effecting a tactical retreat out of Yemen and redrawn Proxy-War Battle-lines in Africa.
News is that Ethiopia has just gotten a Blank Cheque and Carte Blanche to move a fully American Equipped Armoured Brigade onto the North/South border of Sudan. What do you suppose the Ksh1Billion Upgrades on the 50AirCalv are all about, mate??
This is sounding like serious intervention and a major escalation.
It is indeed Vitruvian. With luck and good planning, large-scale Conflict may be avoided, more probably because of the military deterrence being created. In Sudan, without Qaddafi, with the Egyptian oligarchy of Mubarak neutered, and Zenawi’s Armoured Brigade seating in striking distance of Khartoum, and the rest of us making some aggressive moves on paper and on the ground, Bashir can barely breathe.
The ‘’New World Order’’ wages total war on Islamic extremism, and as far away from the shores of America and Europe as possible. Look at the North African / Middle Eastern Map? The Sunni / Shia divide muddies the Western Versus Islamic jostle no ends so much so that the West choses to flow with the populist wave against bastions of decadence created and sustained by the West itself – hoping to contribute to whatever results and hence safeguard their interests, bien entendu.
Mauritania, Somalia and Yemen are the sticky points, ERGO – containment strategies are rolled out for these -the Americans have made recent heavy spending on Military Developments of Mauritania and Mali, as well. In the other African countries, robust diplomatic / political pressure and strong and well-funded Civil Society groupings articulate Westernised ideals /concepts and forcing quantum changes in governance favourable to the West – and the indigene peoples too. On-and-on!! Next five years of this new battle-ground?
i had achance to watch US special forces training in the US,these guys are damn good.
i wonder if wat we call kenya navy seals would do what i experience with the US seal.our boys are still green,we are far from maturity as fer as SEALS are concerned.
i had a chance to watch US special forces training in the US,those guys are damn good.
i wonder if wat we call kenya navy seals would do what i experience with the US seal.our boys are still green,we are far from maturity as fer as SEALS are concerned.
Yeah, that’s why they were victorious in Somalia in ’93 and its the same reason they’ve already wiped out the Taleban in Afghanistan.
… and Osama bin Laden deep inside Pakistan on May 2nd.
Someone missed a good opportunity to remain silent. If you don’t understand the direction of a conversation, take your time.
Firing up the engines again?
sarcasm |ˈsɑːkaz(ə)m| (noun): the use of irony to mock or convey contempt
I too missed the sarcasm there, had to read it thrice. What’s with your negativity. I thought you were not supposed to reply to his posts?
Incidentally, it’s the other way around. He’s not supposed to reply to mine. I don’t partake in such infantility.
I contribute my thoughts like anyone else. Negativity? Balance, perhaps. I do not venerate the West, Mjadili, least of all the US. But to deride the professionalism of the US Navy Seals for whatever reason (simply because they are western or American?) is to abdicate objectivity and underrate your enemy. They kick ass, that’s a fact. Ama?
Let’s just say I have a really big issue with jongoism.
That’s, errr, “jingoism”
Seems someone called up a small war and forgot to invite the rest of us, Spartan, Nicci. Cool it guys, ain’t no cause for all this mortar exchanges. Although it does spices things up on this here moribund site sometimes!!
Chinook, the CDU ( both the earlier and the current expanded Unit) have been cross-training for years with the US Navy Seals, British SBS and the Delta and SAS specforces. In school-room terms – same curriculae / different teachers. There is a quite a linear drift in Equipment and Budgets but on a man-on-man consideration, they are just as good. In battle conditions, this is the determinant, though the Equipment and Budgets can colour performances a great deal.
I know the skeptics will throw the usual cold water claiming it is nothing but the usual Military Brotherhood mumbo-jumbo, but it is true.
This forum/blog is not about Spartan and Vitruvian.
If this exchange is creating an atmosphere of bitterness and is perceived as a war, I’m willing to call a truce
Some of my posts have been rather abrasive but it has not been my intention to injure or insult. To win, yes. We have our different sensitivities and I seem to have misjudged Spartan’s. If apologies are due, then they are forthcoming.
However, I stand by my assertion that everyone should be willing to take as good as they give. Cynicism and sarcasm ought to and will be responded to in kind. That applies to me as well and I welcome it.
Variety is the spice of life.
Indeed you are right, Vitruvian!
Just did a quick in-and-out of Crazy town, folks, in the wake of Fazul Anyone wanna know how the land lies there?
Hi spartan. Olenkarei, Vitruvian and the likes for keeping us informed of our military capabilities n know what we cannot get from any other site. keep up guys n am together with u. some few days ago. i had an article that the two vessels that had gone for reffiting are back and they have been sent to the high seas to join the piracy menace. is it true.
For the past one week I’ve been in Juba to see with my own eyes the birth of a new nation. Will share my impressions of the place as soon as I touch down tomorrow. Quite a spectacle.
Boubacar Diarra, the AU’s special representative in Somalia reads out the riot-act on AMISOM’s indiscriminate fire in Mogandisho, during a Strategy-review meet in Kigali juzi!
This very necessary Mission Definition (and Rules of Engagement) nearly scuttled the Meet! To cite – ”Amisom was not deployed to fight Al-shabaab(!) but to help stabilize the peace to allow dialogue to ensue”!!
Field commanders now under strict orders to cease tit-for-tat tactics that verge on terrorism regardless of the opposing forces. To avoid all collateral statistics even at the very peril of their men!! – Unless you can see his white of his eyes, you will not shoot him, so to speak. Damn!!
Small wonder M7 is calling for a multi-dimensional engagement beyond the Ground hogs presently in-threatre (Air-war). But then again, what will be the target for the Air-forces? This Somalia thing is such a asymmetric mongrel that only a properly strategized, and prosecuted ground operation will suffice.
I fear that a little push ( and there is no lacking of these with Al-shabaab) may unravel this whole AMISOM deployment.
Spartan??
I am sure the good ambassador meant well and was stating the AU’s ‘staple’ position. But chapter seven of the UN under which the AU is operating was watered down even further giving AMISOM a lot of leeway.
I don’t see AMISOM following his advice being followed to the letter.
A good one:
http://www.thenation.com/article/161936/cias-secret-sites-somalia
Agreed, it’s a good one. Leaves me wondering what kind of ‘intelligence officer’ the Senior Somali government is
Somali government.. hehe
This piece by Jeremy Scahill is one clever piece of BS with propaganda value alone. But that is not unexpected in the asymmetric war developing now in Somalia. What does surprise me is the sophistication manifested by Al-Shabaan in running such a forcefully believable Legend.
Like I have also said, a successful Intelligence Legend is spun from believable and factual elements, and does not deviate too far from this mean. That is the gist of this Story by Scahill – there are, as logically expected, all manner of Foreign Operatives in Somalia presently running all manner of operations not limited to black drapes inferred in the article. And local engagement is necessarily primitive, with facilities and personnel that are a throw-back of Said Barre’s days. Renditions have taken place, will continue to happen ( Somalia’s intelligentsia is mostly presently located in Kenya, as is a good proportion of her Civilian population) but not involving Kenyan nationals who have been drawn into this maelstrom of a conflict – pressure from Ahmed Abdullahi Hassan’s family members would have by now strongly manifested in today’s liberated space In Kenya ( none that I have heard about). And from my standpoint, the military assessment by Scahill appears to be forlorn but nostalgic expression of the once unbwogabble Al-shabaab now unrecognizable.
Helas, this nonsensical piece is a legitimate fact of war.
One of the four Su-30’s delivered in June aboard an Antonov now flying and scaring the hell out of poor fishermen:
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1199984/-/byjv5nz/-/index.html
Hmmm. 125 million a piece to scare the shit out of chickens. OK.
Hey! What’s this smile doing on my face?
$50mln per piece actually. 8 pieces. With some tanks for the PGB reaching just over $500mln. Not sure about the remaining $200mln, but likely some AD systems.
Mhm. That comes to 125 million a piece.
Was surprised they are already flying. Were we not supposed to push them down the road or somethin?
Don’t worry buddy. Just give it a little bit of time.
We’ve flown the MiG-23s for decades on a meagre budget. If the Sukhois can fly for ten to fifteen years we would have got our money’s worth.
About scaring some chicken, it can get a lot worse, as these farmers witnessed to their distress:
http://www.english.rfi.fr/france/20100827-jet-fighters-kill-4800-chickens-says-farmer
Besides, I know countries that spend more on defence than us that are yet to scare chickens or any birds for that matter.
@ namunyak – why would you start changing monikers?
I appreciate your very psyops-conscious response, but my gut feeling is that Scahill’s only intention was to put together a good story – for the American reader.
@ Mugwiira – smoked me out good. But the error was inadvertent – my pesky daughter is so named and I was preoccupied to a point.
I reckon you may be right about Scahill’s intentions; still his story reads more like a sci-fi than an investigative piece.
You’ve been to ground quite long this time, mate?
Didn’t have much to say.
The guy’s focus is on extraordinary rendition and CIA’s involvement therein. The rest is only a background.
Can’t blame him, because Habeas corpus is probably the single greatest achievement of the Western Civilization.
Some rather puzzling changes in Rwanda’s NSIS made couple of days ago. One is indeed hard pressed what to make of these – anyone with a usual perspective?.
Lt. Gen and Maj. Gen. Karenzi Karake, who together with Lt. Gen. Charles Muhire were under house arrest until a couple of weeks ago for ‘’Indiscipline’( a General Officer accused of indiscipline??!!) after decoration for service in Darfur and service in the Air-force Command respectively , now the new Chief of NSIS. The DG-NSIS Office has also enhanced being previously occupied by a Col. Ndahiro who took over from another Colonel before him , and ad nuseaum.
And Col. Dan Munyuza, a fella largely acknowledged as the lead-agent of the military extermination squad recently involved in Gen Nyamaswa near-assassination in South Africa, are earlier in charge of the Counter-Intelligence Docket in brutal very brutally efficient activity recently in Rwanda and Eastern Congo, is now head of Military External Intelligence Docket!!
Damn!! My ears are twicking!!
Usually ‘indiscipline’ over there means ‘independence’ or any reluctance to tow the official line. Most of these guys will end up in exile coz nobody over there rises through the ranks and gets a decent send-off. Somehow, somewhere they run afoul of the big man.
This has the vague markings of a headless chicken, which saddens me coz it portends tying times ahead for all of us. Put aside the low-grade war of attrition these chaps have been running inside the country and in Eastern Congo, as well as the selective purges of Military/ Intelligence edifice at the middle-to-top cadre which have often times been terminal, then a seemingly confused re-circling of old comrades – hell, is he finally running out of dependable friends /options or what??
change of guard at helm of KDF,the more they change the more things remain the same.
Change for the heck of it is no change at all. Change has to be managed carefully to have meaning and resolution, and more so in the Armed Forces, because it is the strongest thread in any Social Fabric see how City State Athens of old unraveled when the politicos ran riot on their Armed Forces. The Armed Forces is not a political party, that assimilates changes to transient and expedient populist imperatives. It has rigidity in its structures, necessary for cohesiveness in the faceof deadly force. Lets keep civilian fratricidal tendencies out of the Armed Forces, I beg I beg O!!
Fellas,Meles Zenawi is in Abyei since Friday this week, in full strength Armoured Brigade-size, all expenses paid – strangely under UN Mandate.
The ”door” is shut now, and the Center of Africa Resources line firmly drawn just below the Tropic of Cancer. I imagine the turmoil in Arab-Africa was in a quaint sense kinda precipitous for East & Central Africa, but am certain there will be reactions from the North in due course.
BTW, this Ethiopian UN-Mandated deployment breaks a very basic UN Peacekeeping deployment rule – never draw Peacekeepers from Neighboring countries of a conflicted Country. Ergo – Meles Zenawi is not ”peacekeeping” in Abyei, Period!!
I agree with you kabisa. The speed at which the UN agreed to Zenawi’s offer to send ‘peace keepers’ to Abyei left me dumbfounded. But we can’t also afford to ignore the fact that there’s oil in the equation and that the West has its plate full. In such a situation they would gladly accept any offer from a West-leaning country to take care of their interests.
Zenawi is an interventionist, just like M7. But there are two bold differences: M7 is a regionalist while Zenawi is all for what’s good for Ethiopia. Secondly, Zenawi has a tendency not to ‘finish the job’. He will bail out at the first opportunity as happened in Somalia.
That said, I see a silver lining in his move. Anyone who will keep the marauding SAF at bay is welcome. South Sudan is a few days old and barely out of the woods. Let’s see how Zenawi takes this second chance at babysitting.
I concur with you on the difference between the two men. But Meles is much more – he has thinly veiled imperialistic tendencies. I fear that it may take more than a polite request by GoSS to get him out of this Rich Pie, if the IGAD does not ride his neck right through – we need to ensure this deployment works for IGAD – to wean GoSS into IGAD/EAC-expanded/ facing ”SOUTH”.
Meles has kicked up a dangerous storm with the GoS and Egypt over unilateral Blue Nile usage for irrigation and hydro-power, very much like he has done with the OMO river.
Then he gets IGAD and the UN to outflank Eritrea as a terrorist state, sweetening this with an offer for this Armoured Brigade in Abiyei. The man is genius!
I reckon the Ole Man’s medium-to-long-term strategy of taking Ethiopia’s land-locked economy Captive is spot-on. Only other way to contain this man is to beat him over the head!!
But what will the Ole Man do when Ethiopia hoists its flag in Asmara again? There will be no peace before that happens and Addis WILL prevail. Contingencies already in place? Back to the drawing board?
Just can’t wait for an enlightened Ole Man!
That is a worrisome statement, buddy. Asmara retaken? Well I have studied ad minutae the Ethiopia/Ertrean Compaign and I reckon to have discovered the generalized reasons why Meles lost it – well, Asmara did not win neither! But from everything I have presently seen, the same fatal flaws in Ethiopian Military-Politico edifice (in all of its facets) remain unchanged to date safe for some very cosmetic improvements. The Only plus is greater Political Unity of Purpose and an expanded Economy. Asmara on the other hand has degenerated into herself – they call it patriotism there!! But with real possibility of a National ‘terminal’ wish that makes anyone wanting to tangle with those chaps plainly certifiable.
Trade and greater economic integration is the horse the Ole Man is riding, and I have my bets heavily on this horse. And the way things are developing, all age-old bilateral and internecine squabbles will be soon swallowed up in the expanded living space and the dynamics of life that will evolve. That is the horse I am betting on, Vitruvian.
Occasional incursions by tribal militia are easily resolved. But how does one deal with an issue such as Gibe III HEP (which the Ole Man has shown no indication of attempting to tackle seriously)? The investment and importance are far too great for Addis to back out of now, yet Nairobi cannot sit idly by and watch Lake Turkana and the 100s of 1000s dependent on its waters wiped off the face of the planet.
Meles is a throwback relic, Vitruvian. But he too knows not to play the Regional Elephant inthe-china-shop. Problem in common resources utilisatization remains exploitation balancing between Unilateral and Bilateral exploitation, between National and Regional interests. There are many ways of tilting these questions away from National Considerations, and these will increase as Economic and Social integration deepen. Particularly because a Resource War in this region will not have decisive results, and will in all certitude be only beneficial to external parties than to any of the belligerent local players – you heard Hillary Clinton exhorting India to increase her regional presence today with a Naval presence in the South China Seas??!!
Our mindset remains ”Defensive-to-depth” which is essentially a short, crisp, bloody engagement projected ”externally”, everything which a Resources War will not be..
It is almost certain that Eritrea will only settle down in some sort of loose confederation with Ethiopia – without recourse to Military Coercion. As you rightly put it, nothing at all indicates she has the National Stamina to outlast a patient Ethiopia. Maturity of political leadership in Ethiopia, as well as the phasing out of the current guerrilla leadership in Eritrea, will be herald this rapproachment of the two. I think!!
Jamal, I am a soldier and I harbour no ill-will towards Somali and Somalia. One way or the other, I have no emotions about how Somalia concerns me as a soldier. It is not personal. So, when I come for you inside your little hiding place, I will have two long-guns one silenced, a silenced side-arm, couple grenades and some flash-bangers, a short combat knife, and enough ammo to make a good war, but also enough blood expanders , anti-biotics, gauze and bandages that I will use on you if you are still breathing when I am done with you. .
But still, isn’t my query relevant even to you? What is the really gist of your disagreement within this same house of Somalia? Same language, religion, culture, history,tribe?
Can it be professed that the Ethiopian-Eritrean War is over? There is a profound and simmering resentment between the two that shows every indication of incessant hostility. Time will ripen, a decade hence or more. And Addis will be the instigator.
Barring a drastic change to their civic, diplomatic and economic policies, the State of Eritrea will become unviable.
They have been at war with practically every neighbour, including one across the sea (transient truces notwithstanding). They are the EA pariah and have been declared a rogue state for their support of regional terrorism. They have an incredibly fragile economy that simply cannot withstand the insatiable demands of its disproportionately large military. They seem to have no tangible plans for the future beyond sheer existence. By will power. Their moderate mineral wealth and potential oil deposits remain unexploited. The regime is unelected, undemocratic and oppressive. Universal suffrage is not tolerated. In their entire history, there have ben no national elections. Etc., etc., yada, yada. All the ingredients and a damn good recipe for disaster.
Unless fundamental reform is instituted, they will collapse and descend into chaos. The Horn of Africa has witnessed this before.
On the other hand, there is indignation and resentment on the side of Ethiopia for loss of Empire. There are historical grievances, justified or not. There is national pride. And there is greed.
With a burgeoning economy and clearly-defined national and regional policies, all they have to do is wait.
And if, when the time is ripe, they decide to march, who will stop them?
Not official – M7 and Meles have signed a Defense Pact main emphasis on Overflight & Ground Ops Collaboration with Somalia in mind. Now let’s see if GoSS will agree to some Overflight and Aerial-staging Ground. T
That pact isn’t going to be needed anytime soon. I get the feeling that your geopolitical eyes don’t like the look of it. I mean, two guys that aren’t exactly at the top of your ‘Most Admired Leaders List’. My view is that these guys are trying to put in place a ‘coalition of the willing’ if you like, to fix some problems in the region. Who would blame them, as Kenya, one of the strongest and most diplomatically ‘connected’ countries in the region is ‘perennially’ unwilling to bring her strengths to bear to influence events in the region. That void is going to get filled somehow.
Ugandan planes have flown over South Sudan for years otherwise UPDF would not be Central African Republic. GOSS has depended on Ugandan air defences since January 1997 when Ug helped them down 2 MiGs and an Antonov forcing Bashir to negotiate with SPLA. i don’t think permission from GOSS would be a problem. Just my personal view.
Try as much as I can, Spartan, I cannot fault your thesis on this matter. And you are right, this a frightful flap going on at the moment in the circles I gravitate around about recent rapproachment moves of M7 and Meles. Not sure yet how this will evolve, but cool heads and steely nerves now in critical need all round. Some must come out of all this, surely!
Ugandan SU 30 IN FLIGHT
first pictures
http://www.network54.com/Forum/211833/thread/1310949973/last-1311015084/First+pic+of+SU-30MKK+in+Ugandan+livery
http://www.wagoshanews.com/?p=370
hey , could some one take a look at this link and share some views and thoughts on the credibility of the gist of the article . after reading up some more it seems there is alot of data out there leaning toward what the article speaks of …… some guys on the blog are very plugged into somalia and would appreciate their thoughts and comments . thanks
Bra Kenyana. Are you not able to sift through such poorly crafted disinformation? The author takes some basic disjointed facts of this complex situation and proceeds to conduct a ‘shotgun’ marriage of them. Please discount it entirely.
interesting that three years down the line, its still about “i wear bigger underpants than yours, so obviously the stuff inside has to be bigger. (sorry for those that will find this analogy improper), i guess boys will always be boys. Onto the gist though,
I suddenly came across some writing on some wall that at some point Kenya was considering going for the F/A 18 as a strategic response to Meles Mig acquisition. The author whose pseudoname there is one letter short of the one he uses on this list (:0) goes into great detail divulging the considerations then… i did not get the delta wing and agility during dog fights though considering (corrections welcome). that not withstanding, did that line of thinking change? is the F/A18 project Tosha ? or is it dead in the water…
Hi, Areba. Post a link to that writing, please.
http://goo.gl/n7gHS
look at posts from one risai
Thanks, interesting read. Semi-lobster pushed some wrong buttons with Risasi there, heh heh!
@ Areba. F18 Hornet?? Ha! that’s funny as in ha ha! We could not even afford newer F5s and had to buy junk from Jordan..how many, 15 jets? total them up in price and that would not amount to the cost n one hornet, which btw are Navy/ Marine planes And to boot, the first batch of F5s were “donated” by the US gov and we couldn’t even maintain them. our airforce is a sorry bunch who waste tax payers money to sit around and share 5-6 functional fighter jets while the neighborhood buys nice toys like Mig-29s and Sukhoi-27s. if they wanted to hit us; we wouldn’t even know the came until the smoke cleared.
Is that you, Flying Crane?
Hehehe!
On an aside, he expected sibling rivarly between Kiir and Bashir seems to be boiling over already. Currency and Oil-taxes, with a Peacekeeping force largely rendered ineffectual by Bashir’s careful maneuvering. If only our Politicos would cease their senseless squabbles and resolutely work to get that Lamu Port, Rail/Road/Oil link running yesterday!! Eeishhh!!
Lamu us on course sir, slow but definately on course. Much of it is not our call though, Million man army is keen, very keen….. survey works are complete, road passes not very far away from KDOD ya huko, Garsen and that stretch all the way to garissa will be the winners in roadworks.
@jogoo i dont get you, flyaway cost for the hornet is about 60M, we spent about half of that for the jets, would you have bought something better for the same amount? all factors considered, i believe its all about cutting your coat according to your cloth, not flashing out a credit card as some African leaders are wanton.
Among the projects that must be accomplished for sure is Lamu, Malili, JKIA expansion. if these are completed well, I tell you they will catapult us, but tell us son of Nkarei? do you think those who like us to remain dependent will allow this to proceed without a fight. Their star is deeming though and for the 1st time they have suffered a credit rating downgrade and more is coming. In fact you will come to notice that the delays are not as a result of local leadership but rather the ‘big’ powers fighting for a ‘pound of flesh’ in all these things, of fighting to chock them all together
Flo, you show a soldier’s incisiveness – where art the other sisters though? You are right, and one can trace our present difficulties to that moment in 2003 when GoK pronounced a changed policy on Public Procurement that emphasised ”Competitiveness” and ”Openness”. You know that since independence all Public Procurement were firstly exclusively granted to the British or their siblings/cousins, and secondly were granted through closed tendering (no competition) This was the status established in our Separation Pact with them in 1963, and which they jealousy protected with their ‘Githongo’ and other such collaborators.
Government worldwide are the single largest consumer of goods and services and the greatest income multiplier in any Nation. But NARC in their naivity not only declared war on the West with this nationalistic policy shift, but also churlishly thumbed their noses at the West – ‘’Mta doo?’ Upto the PEV you can trace the perfidious hand of the West in the Social upheavals that this Nation has encountered since this announcement.
If we can get through the next elections without calling out the Army, and particularly ensure the utter defeat of the ‘Candidate’ preferred and back-rolled by the West, and assuming the ‘ring-fence’’ we have progressively thrown around our neighbourhood (see Eritrea crying to re-enter the house?) remains generally unbroken (see how Abiyei has quickly become a ‘soft-issue’ despite the loud insidious drummings by the West?), we shall be largely alright. Vigilance and resoluteness….
What is your take, Flo?
Sorry for the late reply! No one would ever deny that there is a hidden hand in most of the instability in Africa. Just give me an example where there isn’t. DR Congo…..?, ever wondered why on earth there is always a foreign character (white) in every small but significant event in this country, just watch news clips. whether its a reconciliation forum, launch of a bore hole etc. why would an ambassador engage directly with a country’s youth? well, that said our country really needs to develop counter intel tactics. But the truth is that it is now within our reach to hold peaceful elections. There must be a candidate they are fronting never doubt it, if that particular candidate wins and turns back business to our “development partners” you won’t even hear mention of so many corruption scandals, in other words whoever works with them becomes holy.
I’m not sure that any of the 2012 candidates are “national sell-outs.” Not in the sense that they serve foreign masters. The difference between them stems not from their “foreign allegiance” but their “domestic fidelity.” Their vision for Kenya, or lack thereof. The fracas on Kenya’s political stage is in essence ideological. Bundled in ethnic/tribal wrapping paper, but nevertheless.
Embracing ideals that are also cherished by the West (or indeed the East) does not amount to duplicity, disloyalty or double-dealing. There ARE certain truths that are self-evident. That all men are created equal and endowed by their Creator with the unalienable right to Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. There is nothing “un-African” or “un-Kenyan” about that. These are Human aspirations. We celebrate their achievement every December 12th.
I’m not sure which “candidate” you believe is being bank-rolled by the West, Tom. But considering that two other leading candidates are being prosecuted (and some would say persecuted) by the “West” (which, in a reverse of phraseology, is in this case being used as a euphemism for “international community”), I guess I have a pretty good idea.
Sadly, he seems to be the only one of the three prime contenders with even a basic plan for the country that extends beyond personal welfare.
On this im both with and against both Ole Nkare and Vitruvian. (im not sure how talking about a potential CIC in any terms affects discharge of duties for those in uniform but i indeed do have a luxury) and i have a theory…
I believe it is his hedonistic nature that attracts love and loathe in equal measure from uniform and non uniform, simply because it is outside the norm, it is improper. but then again the socialogists will say something about nature and nurture and if we look at the environment that the said person grew in, you cant entirely blame a leaning towards the sukhoils and luftwaffes.
Ill grant him one though, he is a mobilizer. He can make the effort by corporate to raise money for the hungry childs play. and that, for an economy that needs to charm friends for prosperity might be an asset.
Heh, heh! You’re both with and against both ole Nkarei and Vitruvian. You should run for Parliament!
hehehe, i really tried to take a position and thats the only way i could describe my predicament. but then again, would you blame me? having put me there in the first place…
Eiish! This Areba is one switched-on dude. You better march ‘point’, Vitruvian!
But I agree with Areba about the essential hedonistic nature of this Man which are as stated both his greatest weakness and greatest strength. Now, I only study politicians as an exigency of the job, but I have learnt that successful politicians intentionally create ”controlled ambivalence” amongst the voting population at all other times apart from Election Times. This Man is the anti-type to this definition being of the nature of leaders that operate powerful political vehicles in a vacuum of competition – such as were the bane of the Eastern Bloc in the olden days. The Elephant in the room, that crushes things as a matter of course. It is this that is working against him, terminally so if the ICC fails to substantively influence matters in his favour.
Whileas Iam in complete agreement with Vitruvian that certain ideals are universal and espousing these ideals does not create one a lackey of the Imperialism, it does appear to me that as GoK pulled inexorably ‘Eastwards’, the West deftly changed tack and found convergence of sorts with the unbridled ambitions of this Man. This view has assumed prevalence even outside Kenya – note how the Mission to the Ivory Coast unraveled from the widespread sabotage by players within the Mission itself.
A Soldier’s allegiance to the CIC is not to the Person but to the Office, and through this Office, to the People of Kenya. If this Man is the CIC, there will not be one Uniform that will step out of line, I assure you brother Areba – personal likes or dislikes be damned!!
@ok I am sure you would make good company one of these evenings when i do find myself lurking in your turf, or you in mine: I’m flattered nonetheless.
Personally I have few kind words on the man; not emotive though, serious questions on the development and democracy credentials, i also have a feeling he lacks the simple ingredient that we need between now and 2029. patience. and onto my second theory….
What if the Su-Mk-ii are anticipatory of certain changes come 2012?…
When they finally put me out to pasture, i shall get all you chaps into my kwaheri bash in the Mess
First, I have serious doubts these ”certain changes” in 2012( I assume such as would impinge relatively on of M7) will happen. There are very obvious signs of his implosion leading up to 2012 despite his much touted invincibility.
Secondly, the SU-MK2 are Air Superiority bird with some limited multi-tasking abilities. Essentially an Air-Interceptor / Air-Interdiction / Aerial Killer. In such a designation, a hell of a lot more other interlinked systems / abilities / equipment are absolutely critical to even marginally utilize this birds. We can safely conclude that these presently unavailable to the chaps across the big pond. A SU-MK2 on a CAP tasking over our Skies will most probably get killed before it completes the last turn of it figure-8 run.
Third, there are only six Units purchased – might be more in the future. No-one is loosing sleep over just six birds just yet – and I am not awake coz of these birds, just pulled the dead shift this day, is all.
“…a hell of a lot more other interlinked systems / abilities / equipment”
Bingo!
They use this ugly C4ISTAR acronym in the US/NATO to describe the same.
I can assure you, CAS missions will need even more. Sending out aircraft like Su-30 to look for ground targets on their own is a very bad idea.
Seriously, you can’t waste this kind of money only to be able to drop a bomb or two on Khartoum..
To clarify a point: in my view, the choices we have are less than ideal, to put it mildly. But we shall have to choose from amongst them. Unless, as Tom says, the ICC shifts the goal posts.
This is not to say that we don’t have better cadre, but they are not in the game.
All three had a hand in PEV. All three are equally egotistic, callous and unscrupulous in their ambition to ascend to the top. What interests me is where they will take Kenya when they get there; which one of the three is capable of turning us in the direction of Kenyana, if not getting us there. Of THESE three, there is only one such (IMHO). Frankly, the other two just don’t have what it takes.
As for the democratic ideals we strive for, a luta continua! Vitória é certa.
@OK for now well assume that he has a plan, and that in that plan there are contingencies for dealing with the shortfalls in man and machine for the time being, so that for whatever use those birds come there are for example foreign operatives willing and ready to maximize their up to date form in case mikoyan era training and experience falls short.
@virtuvian interesting viewpoint. as far as kenyana is concerned, He sure looks like the messiah, but the abrasive nature gives the impression that he would walk into the mall with a machine gun firing, friend and foe notwithstanding.
My fears exactly about this Man – there are no ambivalent opinions about him in Kenya presently. Those that like him like him regardless ( the ‘polarity’ is swinging too fast into unfavorable levels for him), while those that don’t like him dislike him without doubt. It is easier to reject / dislike than it is to accept / like.
In this mix, how is this Man to retain credible National Relevance / Momentum as our Society migrates from challenge to another? How is he to generate a Critical Mass at the coming times of National Crisis – without resorting to the creation of ‘counter-crisis’, is he is wont to do in the past?
An Elephant in the Mating season, is more like it, as Areba opines, I think.
And now an Issue that is increasingly coming to my attention with alarm. MRC (where R is Republican) It seems to be feeding the uneducated, unemployed youth in this part of the country and every discussion seems to elicit emotion unseen. Is this another SLDF in the making? and what are the implications of the same especially in our war on terror?
@Areba -that topic is a ‘no-fly zone’ at the present – with every good reason. Pls leave it there,for the moment, or carry on without me.
its that bad?
Narcissistic, perhaps. Hedonistic, certainly not!
There are analogies to be drawn between M7 and his true or imagined Nemesis, the Contender we mention above.
Their Napoleonic (in place of “hedonistic”) aspirations can be understood both in terms Anglophone and Francophone. This pits them against each other for there cannot be two such in our confined space. One might steal the glory of the other. The fallout between our two western neighbours is a case in point. But Kenya is not Rwanda.
It is my belief that, were the Contender to succeed next year, Kenya would adopt a far more aggressive foreign and regional policy. Both diplomatic and economic. Although there are aspirations for a regional confederation that would render such rivalry inconsequential, they remain, for the moment, on paper. Reality lies elsewhere.
So, whereas several considerations may have been factored into the rationale for purchasing the exorbitant Sukhoi, it seems very likely to me that an almost imminent and significant shift in Kenyan policy was major among them.
I am more reserved about his machine-gun-toting, elephant-in-the-china-shop nature. He is more mature than that. There is a clear distinction between the modus operandi of his campaigning and that of his policy implementation. Undoubtedly, “revolution” would be the catchword of the day. But certainly not in the Red October sense. He is bourgeoisie himself!
Well cut, Nicci. And I stand corrected too on the appellation used – Narcissistic. My apologies, Mate.
Indeed the Sukhois are merely reactionary, weakly at that, and the stimilus is as you have so incisively put it. It is this reason that no-one is losing any sleep about them – they have no real strategic significant at the present times. Recent rapproachment between the Tall Thin One and M7 were impelled by M7’s realization of his growing isolation in a ‘pincer-like’ situation – his eastern and western neighbours. Recall that ‘Lady’ that you said awhile ago that everybody is panting for in this Kenyana.
I am not certain that a much more overtly aggressive regional and foreign policy at this early time of our Military Redefinition, considering the expansive pretensions we have for eventual domination of Kenyana, would be appropriate. The Man has a shoot-before-you-see-their-eyes sort of mentality which I am greatly afeared of when it comes to driving these two vital tenets of our growth. But this is just an personal opinion.
@Areba – you are dang right it is. But well under tight reins though.
roger that @OK.
On the current debate, I Im waiting with anticipation on what will happen within the next couple of months, especially now that changes in the manual mean he has to make promises and keep them or fall off the race, this will especially be espoused by choices of second in command.
Talking of which, is second in command also deputy CIC in the new manual?
Only when the Deputy Prezzy is Acting President, but even then under the very tight wraps of the Defense Council!
CIC must be ”people-delegated” to wield those life-and-death powers.
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It seems the part of the Sukhoils JD will be dealing with internal conflict.
http://www.newvision.co.ug/PA/8/459/761719
I think not, Bra. Internally a robust Rotary-wing Airarm would be more appropriate – one Sukhoi would purchase an entire squadron of these and some spare petty cash too!
These Sukhois, for many reasons, are near-useless in direct Offensive/Defensive GroundOps. Require a huge amount of Command / Control integrated Infrastructure in its concept-role – not expected to be acquire anytime soon. The numbers (2), and even at full delivery (6), ineffectual as an Offensive Force – no one is about to test them over the home skies anytime soon, for sure.
My take is them birds are an ‘internal’ psychological feint, and an ”external” re-assurance (from you-can-guess-who) that the Air-frames deliveries to KDF will not tilt too far the (yet uneven) present balance , and not specifically oriented immediately-westwards. I could be wrong!
aaah, good to know that the fourth estate elsewhere is equally sensational and at best speculative.
The Ah-64 Vs The Ah – Cobra. suitability for Kenya vis a vis the chinese mosquito…. your comments. Talking of this, where are @jasiri, @olekioma & one Risasi?
My men. I am quite impressed by the depth and richness of discussion here. One thing for sure I know is that we have some of the best brains and our country (K) men have a way of mastering things. I am an enthusiast of mambo ya makoboo and the related technologies so if you don’t mind I will be throwing in a line, a question etc. once in a while
@Makanika – pls feel welcome, bra. Just fall in.
acknowledged sir
@ole
i hear strong murmers that the Toad has sent a heavily armed recce team to migingo…with a dozen or so specials to snoop around.
the local daily the nation is talking of 40 security personnel also trained in marine activity.
WHAT is your take on this?
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Kenya+sends+security+team+to+Migingo+/-/1056/1219534/-/rgc57e/-/index.html
Kenya finally moved on Monday to co-manage the disputed Migingo Island in Lake Victoria.
The country sent a team of about 40 armed security officers to guard the island alongside the Ugandan marine police.
This is the first time Kenya has taken such action since the ownership row broke out in 2004.
Kenya’s national flag will also fly on the island for the first time in the history of Migingo.
The move was part of a resolution by a joint ministerial committee that comprised Kenyan and Ugandan ministers.
The Kenyan team was represented by Internal Security Minister George Saitoti and Lands Minister James Orengo, among others, at a meeting held in Nairobi recently.
The team agreed to complete the stalled survey of the island in a bid to locate its boundary but in the meantime security forces from both countries are guarding the fish-rich island.
Nyatike district commissioner Alan Machari, who received the Kenyan officers en route to Migingo, said they had finalised arrangements for their accommodation on the rocky island.
“The officers drawn from both the regular and Administration police units have been trained on marine operations and are expected to stay there until the ownership row is sorted out by the higher authorities,” he said.
Although Uganda has only about 30 uniformed and plainclothes officers on the island who work in shifts, the Kenyan team is bigger in terms of numbers and equipment.
“As is the tradition, our flag will be hoisted in the camp where the officers will be staying and they will work with the Ugandan security forces,” the DC added.
Nyatike MP Edick Anyanga, who has been vocal on the need to send Kenyan officers, said the government had finally responded to the cries of Kenyan fishermen and traders who have been facing harassment from the neighbouring country’s security officers.
“What now remains is work by the survey team to resolve the row once and for all,” he sai
@ole
whatsis this i am hearing that some somali tribesmen have reported to a UN investigating team that kenyan soldiers have been shelling and clearing alshabab areas deep in somali territory?
Allow me to briefly resurrect the supremacy debate. After following this blog and others keenly I can only conclude that the Kenyan team conquers. Military is about precision and thus one must be sure of the moves they make and knowledge and about equipment. I say this because on this and another blog, risasi has had to correct the ug cranes on precise details on military equipment. Don’t you think this says something about who leads the pack?
Now the Defense Council sends Head of Civilian Policing to Kampala over the Migingo Island issue. Correctly so, to restrict this to a Policing and Civilian Admin perspective. But Iteere’s membership of the Defense Council gives him the necessary clout of this Body to which KDF is enjoined, so as to be taken seriously in Kampala..
The few hotheads amongst us who thirst for blood are in for some disappointment- there will be no Military Hostilities with Uganda over this Island.
Thank goodness for that. As long as the territory returns to its rightful owner and the honour of the Republic is restored.
Take it easy, Vitruvian. Do you wish to see me without limbs that bad, bra!! Hehehe!!
Never, Tom. I applaud the fact that this matter can be settled peacefully. As long as it’s settled justly.
There are no two ways about this.
It isn’t about Nairobi vs. Kampala, or who the head honcho is. It’s very straight forward. Most things come is several shades of grey. Some things are just plain black and white.
True-blue spoken, as the yanks are wont to say! And not to worry, Bra, I got your drift the first time many moons ago. And I agree witcha at maxi.
While it is not in doubt to them that they haven’t a legitimate claim to these Islands, you do know that Kampala needs help to get out with their National Pride intact. I reckon we owe it to ourselves to give them a face-saving resolution – hell, we might need them to cover our backsides at some times in the future! They don’t wish for War over this issue or any other, simply coz there is no respite at all for them in that direction.
This informs the hobbled walkabout we have been doing about this Migingo maneno.
No boasting here, but it seems I was just 1 month off on Libya:
Braggin’ rights are yours, quite in order Mugwiira, you called it close! Always knew there was no soul to the bravado of Self al-islam. But again what would one expect of a mercenary-composed army and a pampered civilian population?
On a serious note, Special Forces from Britain, Denmark and French have won this thing, fighting as Libyans for libyans ( if that makes any sense!!) non only in pathfinder and advanced-recon rioles but also forming numerous small units coalescenced around individual SF members (for leadership and interfaced-control) and mirroring them in basic training, tactics and equipment, in a very asymmetric rapidly changing and mobile conflict without factual front-lines with the amorphous ill-motivated Libyan Army Units.
As we celebrate this ‘victory’, stop for a moment and imagine just how incredibly profound this Libyan drama has transformed Military thinking particularly how easy it now appears to overthrow shaky governments without the drama of mercenaries and coups of olden days. Eeiiish!!.
Not all that easy really! Here’s the key I think:
“the amorphous ill-motivated Libyan Army Units”
If only any of these NATO specops troops had been captured dead or alive, that would’ve been a huge PR disaster for the alliance, and forced it to assume a much more low-profile role.
The loyalist forces have not been able to adapt to asymmetric warfare and lacked motivation.
If Qaddafi had at least one third of the support he claimed to be having, things could’ve been different.
Sorry in advance for an off-topic..
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/slideshow/ALeqM5iaCcxTMRB8qpUTmDK_jxG7DHUuKA?docId=9c053580f6da4797b774ad43b5122f35&index=1
Are they trying to master the British step? hehe. The British step is for lazy people, raising arms instead of legs. Suits the Somali people perfectly.
This brings memories of Bob Mugabe who made 2 critical mistakes when he took over Zim: 1) waited for 20 years to kick out the white landowners; 2) abandoned the NVA drills and adopted the British ones for the Zim army.
NVA’s drills were amazing and a real eye-catcher, the original Prussian style, not a kind of Deutscshlisch like Bundeswehr:
Too bad not many people even know there was such an armed force. And man, a serious one that was, not only good at drills. Heard some firsthand accounts of their performance in the “Prague Spring” and was.. hmm.. impressed.
And these were conscripts.
Ice cold.
Hey guyz,what happened to the purchase of the f15 birds,how are the china birds compared to the northan sudan antikovz and i here our
guyz have been dip in somali territory kickin ass,makin those alshabab dudes backup for more backup and i wish the KDOD would do more for our
people bordering the Ethiopian border,this in an acceptable considering the
capability of our defense mechanism,tactics and forces but thats my opinion
This man ssebo is a piece of work. I have much respect for him after reading this… dude must have smelt what KE did with this jubaland thing and now…. guy wants to create muddy water so we all cant drink…
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1233186/-/bjapyfz/-/index.html
http://eastafrican.userboard.net/t5p540-kenya-armed-forces#1007
thanks bro, i have been having trouble logging into that board. could you ask the admins to resend me the password as i have no way of reaching them and i get a ¨the username specified does not match the email address assigned to the name¨ i use the same alias as here.
@Areba – I have sent a mail to Admin at Eastafrican.userboard.net – copied your note above.
Incredible poppycock!! I am stumped for words to make commentary! Ati War is necessarily Ideological? And so UPDF has ideological motivation to be in Mogadishu? Ati KDF lacks the logistical ability to sustain such a puny offensive in Jubaland?? This man is slowly sinking on the weight of his blotted self-estimation!
Thanks Bro. lemme catch up on the board, looks like ive missed a lot since a long time back. But on ssebo, i think he sees pax kenyana in full light and is spoiling for a fight cause of the wider implications of the same to his baby projects into somalia.
Hey Olekoima , ole nkarei and everyone I hope none of you thinks that the Crane dude is me With a changed identity. Boy that dude is having a field day with y’all but I have reserved myself to an observer role, well since the wiki leaks saga. You watch what you write and who it concerns when on duty (was on a small vacation ending Friday ) so I really can’t contribute even when I had “news” that would excite the blog (the drones, or even the suhkois) office kinda new about it even before M7 arrived in Moscow to take a look at them. I was skeptical about it when I landed on that brief cause I wondered who is he going to Fight in the whole of east and central Africa? It was tatal overkill for the Air forces in this region. The only reason I think that as a combined Airforce now the EAC can put up resistance against Egypt in case you decide to fight over the Nile with the suhkois forming the tip of that Arrow. Now I go back into the shadows and watch you people have fun with Crane. lol
but more seriously I think EAC people should stop bickering on who is greater even in “an avator” world because the peolple pulling the strings here don’t really care. You are all expendable and the only people who matter are those under the Red, White and Blue
Checking back in:
Latest is that the Unmanned birds from uncle sam have been infected with a virus. All of them Armed and unArmed. Brings forth an interesting angle to national security and defense.
I don,t understand this issue about KNS Jasiri and i saw its picture of the ship in mombasa!
I guess we are officially at war. I have no doubt that you will do us proud.
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Wooi!! Two planes down!not a good start guy,but i wish you all the best! Do a clean job and get home safe by december..
@icecold Which two planes are you talking about? there are only reports of 1 helicopter crash! can you please post the images of KNS Jasiri in mombasa as you claim?
Kenya military is ranked highly in Africa but lets wait and see if its tru kenay is been used by the AMERICANS as a launching pad for american interest for a reason of peacekeeping so as to secure it interest of UGANDA,SOUTH SUDAN and LIBYA OIL.
I hope our military heads and intelligence are watching carefully lest Al Shabab is sent anti-aircraft by their suppliers! ERT…
I disagree with @Morrison, kenya is no longer very politically correct with the US, see they have even turned to Chinese equipment. also the Al S would have already made the claim if it were true, they have their intelligence no? @KK it is a known secret that ERT supports the thugs but this will be taken care of.
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Thanks for them
Thie is good muscle power. We need more to be prepared.
Thanks
I love Kenya Army
to those that think our f5 are useless in conflict say with egypt shud knw that i doubt if the 15 and 16 can make a round trip including loiter time over a target in egypt without AAR.we might not be prepared for war but neither were the brits in 1940.our mbts are old and lack reactive armor n anti NBC capability bt deployed as part of a combined arms unit myt make a difference.anyway our boys in 20th batt esp D company r the best.we av reliable small arms,logistics n our command n control structure is flexible.the decentrilised regional command structure ensures our high command can withstand surprise strikes.we are in good hands folks.salute al the gunship pilots from 50 ACB n the crack boys from 20th batt
our kenyan soldiers have made us proud
Having read this I thought it was extremely enlightening.
I appreciate you taking the time and effort to put this article together.
I once again find myself spending way too much time both reading and leaving comments.
But so what, it was still worth it!
Am proud to be kenyans..tha reason is that,kenyans always work lyk ants and spk one voice.can u imagine tha enemy is now at tha fingers of our disciplnd kdf.i wish i am one of the army…hongera mashujaa wetu popote mlipo..bravo,,,
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