Museveni exploiting Kenya’s weakness for Uganda’s gain

Since its independence from Britain in 1962, Uganda has been envious of Kenya’s proximity to the Indian Ocean coast.

Ugandan presidents. From left to right: Milton Obote, Idi Amin Dada and Yoweri Museveni.

Ugandan presidents. From left to right: Milton Obote, Idi Amin Dada and Yoweri Museveni.

All Ugandan leaders have been fully aware that Uganda’s reliance on Kenya and Tanzania to access the Indian Ocean puts the country in a very vulnerable position. During Kenya’s near civil war in 2008, Uganda experienced severe shortages of food, fuel and consumer commodities. It was a painful reminder of the country’s landlocked status.

For this reason, Ugandan government strategists have always had a secret desire to conquer Kenya in order to gain unlimited access to the Indian Ocean port of Mombasa.

With Kenya currently beset by a moribund and ineffective coalition government, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has seen that this is best opportunity to advance Uganda’s strategic interests as far as Kenya is concerned. And the Migingo issue is just the beginning.

Kenya is currently a weak state politically, economically and militarily. Years of corruption, ineptitude and negligence have turned a once-promising nation into an African basket case. The economy is not growing fast enough to provide jobs, resulting in massive discontent among the population. The Kenyan people’s loyalty to the government is at its lowest in history, as proven by low opinion poll ratings.

Kenyan security forces appear to be unwilling to fight. Border incursions in the North Eastern Province, northern and north western Kenya are the order of the day. Internally, the security situation is far from ideal. Political and criminal gangs are gaining strength as the government dithers on what actions to take. Cattle rustling, land invasions, poaching, drug trafficking, prostitution and extortion are vices which are growing with each passing day.

The country’s dual leadership is incapable of steering the State towards creating a secure environment. The Kibaki- Raila duopoly (for indeed, Kenya now has two parallel leaderships) is beset by personality clashes that have paralyzed government. A repeat of the 2008 ethnic violence is not far below the surface as politicians wrangle for power, wealth and mistresses. The fate of over 35 million people has been left to the dogs.

In contrast, Uganda is a dynamic and forward looking state with a strong willed Yoweri Museveni as its leader. Depending on which side of the political divide you ask in Uganda, Museveni is a pragmatist, a fighter, a dictator, a tyrant, a visionary and a bully. Unlike Kenya, everybody in Uganda knows who is in charge of the country, what he represents and which lines you cannot cross.

Kenya had decisive and strong leaders in the past. President Jomo Kenyatta (1963 – 1978) and President Daniel arap Moi (1978 – 2002) could never tolerate the actions Ugandan forces are taking in Lake Victoria and the Pokot area. The mere presence of Ugandan forces anywhere near Kenya’s borders would have provoked a response that would have left Uganda without any doubt as to Kenya’s displeasure.

The first Ugandan president, Milton Obote, got in trouble with Kenyatta for moving weapons through Kenya without permission. Idi Amin got in trouble with Kenyatta for claiming that all the land west of the Great Rift Valley was Uganda’s. Museveni got in trouble with Moi when Ugandan soldiers infringed on Kenya’s western border. With Kibaki as the third president of Kenya, Uganda has learnt that it can get away with destroying property, arresting and even killing Kenyans.

The sly Museveni has seen the best opportunity today for Uganda to implement its long term strategy of gaining direct access to the Indian Ocean. Museveni has seen that Kenya is weak, divided and without direction. Museveni has realized that if Uganda does not act today, then another chance like this might not present itself anytime soon.

But Museveni is not unique in this line of thinking. Throughout human history, statesmen have taken advantage of opportunity to advance the interests of their countries and to gain territory if possible. Otto von Bismarck said that states are built from blood and iron. Museveni is a blood and iron statesman. Kibaki – Raila are not.

With reports of Ugandan soldiers crossing into Kenyan territory as Kenyan security officers watch helplessly, it is obvious that Museveni is implementing the Uganda master plan. Kenyans should expect worse unless the Kibaki – Raila government somehow cleanses itself from the stinking vines of incompetence that plague it.

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7 Responses

  1. Thanks for exposing the weakness of Kenya that are unlikely to go for the next 20 years. Once instability enters a country it takes time for it to get out. In fact the situation could even worsen before it gets better. It is no longer unimaginable to thinks that Kenya could go the Somali way. Uganda went through this phase and now its kenya’s turn.

    Please do not blame Museveni and Ugandans for Kenya’s problems. While in the past Uganda’s failures were used to mark Kenya’s successes today, the reverse is true and it is clear that this is what most Kenyans can not come to terms with.

    The temporary Migingo has now been turned by some Kenya politicians as a most welcome diversion for the poor and suffering Kenyan masses.

  2. THAT UGANDA HAS A SHEEME TO ANNEX A ROUTE TO THE COAST THOUGH KENYA IS RIDICULOUS.THIS IS ONE OF THE STORIES THAT DONT EVEN MAKE SENSE UNLESS BANANA PLANTATIONS ARE THE CAPABILITY AND THE POWER NEEDED FOR THIS OPERATION.YOU PEOPLE HAVE A SYNDROME OF OVERESTIMATING UGANDA.THE 7 MIGS AND SEVERAL T 55s WHICH CANNOT EVEN OVERUN KONY WILL BE WIPEP OUT WITHIN THE FIRST THREE HOURS OF ENGAGEMENT.UGANDA HAS NO ARMY IN ESSENCE.THEY ARE A CONTINUATION OF A BANDIT MILITIA THAT MU7 USED TO GET HIMSELF IN POWER.THE KONY MILITIA THAT UGANDA HAS FOUGHT FOR 20 YEARS NOW IS THE EQUIVALENT OF SABOT LAND DEFENCE FORCES THAT KENYA ARMY WIPED IN 72 HOURS.YOU PEOPLE FORGET FAST.THE ONLY REAL ARMY THAT UGANDA FOUGHT IS RWANDAN AND UGANDA WAS ANNILATED.THEY CLAIMED THEY WERE OUTNUMBERED BUT HISTORICAL EXAMPLES HAVE IT THAT EVEN A WELL ORGANISED AND HIGHLY TRAINED FORCE CAN WIPE OUT LARGE FORCES OF POORLY TRAINED BANDITS.(ISRAEL WIPED OUT ARABS )BRITAIN ANNILATED ARGENTINIANS IN 1982 FALKAN WAR.)THE FACT THAT UGANDA HAS 60,000 BANDITS AS AN ARMY DONT INTIMIDATE US IN KENYA.REAL TALK , STRAIGHT TALK AND NO EMOTIONS OR NIGHTMARES INVOLVED,FOR UGANDA TO FIGHT KENYA AND WIN,A COW WOULD GIVE BIRTH TO A HEN.ITS AN IMPOSSIBLE SCENARIO.LEADERSHIP WEAKNESS IN NAIROBI SHOULD NOT BE PERCEIVED AS COWERDICE.TAKE IT FROM ME IF MUSEVENI KNEW ATTACKING KENYA WAS EASY,HE WOULD HAVE DONE IT.EVERY TIME HIS MALNOURISHED SOLDIERS CROSSED INTO KENYA DURING MOI ERA THEY WERE EFFECTIVELY REPULSED BY A.P POLICE.EVEN MAJOR WEBSITES LIKE YAHOO ACKNOWLEDGE THIS.DO A SEACH OF KENYA ARMED FORCES AND READ.THE FACT THAT THEY FIGHT RAG TAG THUGS IN CONGO WHO HAVE NOTHING BUT AK 47S DONT GIVE THEM ANY MILEAGE.WHAT DID THEY DO WHEN ANGOLANS SHOWED UP IN CONGO?AGAIN THEY WERE OUTNMBERED BECAUSE THEY HAD 10,000 TROOPS AND ANGOLA HAD 1,000.RUN UGANDA RUN.GIVE CREDIT WHERE ITS DUE AND JUST SAY BY SENDING SOME TROOPS IN SOMALIA,UGANDA IS TAKING A STEP TOWARDS PROFFESIONALISM BUT REMEMBER KENYA IS MOST OF THE TIME REQUESTED BY U.N TO OFFER TROOPS WHOSE REPUTATION IS SECOND TO NONE IN AFRICA.RUN UGANDA RUN.

    • we in buganda especially those born during amin era know the consequences of war.kenya can beat us so what?we dont eat war and if tasting blood during elections made you guys thirsty for more,seek for your own blood not ugandans.its sad we have an expansionist president who wonna be there for life and with all due respect,he has done alot to move us forward but that gives him no lifetime mandate.his militarism has seen u.p.d.f violate the territorial boundaris of our neighbors.it is this carelessness that brought amin down.he thought his large army of thugs could beat tanzania who had a smaller army..he was not smart enough to foresee the ability to moboliseand the purpose of the mission.
      let me state here what wins wars.
      1.first its the discipline,training and the moralle of the forces.
      2.the purpose of the mission.in this case kenya would be more vigorous since to them they are defending theeir sovereignity.
      3.the economic strength to sutain a drawn out conflict and to re-supply the forces.
      4.the arsenal deployed by the forces to engage the enermy.
      5.the logistics and strategies employed by the generals.For examle buganda might use the strategy of sending a large wave of ill equiped soldiers while kenya might use a smaller and lethal force well equiped and hard hitting enough to wipe out large numbers of ugandan troops.or even worse kenya might cut supplies to uganda though their port and choke the country.(does this sound familiar?)
      6.,the timing of the mission.this includes commencing of hostilities and knowing when to cease fire.for a nation to fight effectively,they must have forward operating bases well prepared to engage the first waves of assault from the enermy.knowing when to quit avoids a long drawn out guerilla conflict that is neithe r desired nor necessary.
      7.last but not least,the intelligence of how the enermy carries out his operations and the ability to foil his plans.
      With all due respect to our forces,they are far much behind in all of those and i dont foresee them having the capability to engage kenya.well,if am wrong and it happens,before our first soldier eats pokot cow in kacheliba western kenya,i bet you a kenyan flag will fly in kampala and mu7 will be somewhere in libya.

    • I can see that you real gat a narrow brain, so lets see any kenyan missile on ugandan air thats when u wil learn who realy uganda is… Anyway thought its an old story.

  3. Shame on you all.These are two third world countries we are talking about ,who needs to improve the economy,strenghten their institutions and enhance accountability amongst their leaderships.They can’t engage in war with borrowed money and Aid from the west and Asia.It is quite rediculous when you talk about a Museveni with 5000 armed miltia to go into war with with it’s neighbours in the name of expanding it’s territory.Not even Somalia can loose even a fit of it’s land for your information.For the sake of enlightening you people,Kenya has the most modernised airforce in africa thus making it impossible for any vulnarable country to touch it.

  4. The only way to take over Kenyan land is befriending them not fighting them

  5. Museveni is a war lord and there will never anon miltary man who will ever rule uganda, so generally uganda is a miltary state which kenya isnt.

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